AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

SPX
Bullish long day (opening marubozu). Resolved hammer higher. Stayed above the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89 (next is the 1.8276 at 1218.63). Midpoint back above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Closed below 21 SMA. Stayed above the 55 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.




VIX
Bearish long day (plus gapped lower at open). "Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death I shall fear no market." Back below the 618.8% fibo ext (support). Midpoint is still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Pre Greece implosion jitters. Tested the 14.6% fibo ext and passed. No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed below the 21 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece default coming soon to a theatre near you). New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1.3596.

Morning Audibles 4.20.10 - Be Tactful When Makin' the Rounds...

& maybe (you can SAVE A PARTY)... PARTY GONE OUT OF BOUNDS!

Doesn't it at least "feel" like that? I mean - SERIOUSLY - WTFF?

"Where's the BEER? Where's the PUNCH?" [after last Friday] "Ewwww HEALTHY TOFU! :-("

"Who's to BLAME when parties really get OUT OF HAND? Who's to blame when they get POORLY PLANNED? (Crashers get bombed - Slobs make a mess - You know they'll even RUIN YOUR WIFE'S DRESS!" Can you pull it back in line? Can you salvage it in time?)...

What can you do to save a party? Parchesi? Charades? a spur of the moment Scavenger hunt? or QUEEN OF THE NILE?

OMG! What can I say, text, or tweet that hasn't been said already? OK... I'll do my best to give you my best TECHNICAL description of a PARTY GONE OUT OF BOUNDS (as I perceive the tape right now)... Then, I'll climb back into my OWN PRIVATE IDAHO...

So whatever... I'd conceded YESTERDAY that we might see 1204 (but after a point discarded the idea - & then bet a cheeseburger on it)... So I suppose this is the first time in history I have INDIGESTION the night PRIOR to a cheeseburger affair instead of AFTER... We'll see (because I'm not looking at E-mini's as we speak)...

I still say (keeping to the THEME)... That Wall St. & Washington (by keeping this rally going), are continuing to live in their OWN PRIVATE IDAHO...

(in the end) CV adores "barefoot Cindy" & Kate's voice!


& especially what they (&Fred) sing...


"Keep off the path, beware the gate,
watch out for signs that say "hidden driveways".
Don't let the chlorine in your eyes
blind you to the awful surprise
that's waitin' for you at
the bottom of the bottomless blue blue blue pool."

"Keep off the patio,
keep off the path.
The lawn may be green
but you better not be seen
walkin' through the gate that leads you down,
down to a pool fraught with danger
is a pool full of strangers."

"Get out of that state
Get out of that state you're IN"

AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

SPX
Hammer day. Wanted to test 21 SMA but didn't. Stayed above the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89 (next is the 1.8276 at 1218.63). Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Doji day. Closed below 21 SMA. Stayed above the 55 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes. Now trading back above the weekly 3LB reversal at 80.44.



VIX
Bearish LONG day. What happened to the fear?. Fell down through the 50.0% & 38.2% fibo ext. Midpoint is well above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Recovered from heavy selling. Tested the 0.0% and passed. Also held the 21 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Possible hammer day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed above the 21 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness. New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal still 1.3656.



GS
Bullish thrusting day. Stayed above the 1.618 fibo of 154.80. Closed back above the 0.0% fibo ext. No daily 3LB changes.

The Bond Report 4.19.10 - (courtesy of LB)

A weak day in fixed income across the board as bonds sold off a little in the afternoon and equities rallied as carry trades recovered from last weeks' Greece/Goldman shock. Vanguard put out an interesting note today regarding the Bear Flattener and warning investors that holding the Short End into a tighter FED might result in Investor Pain.

Hard to see today's trade as anything more than a little profit taking by traders on the right side of last week's action, or perhaps this was simply the result of EVIL HEDGERS like LB.

Corpies: LQD -0.25%; AGG -0.18%; JNK -0.43%; HYG -0.19%;
Govies: TLT -0.25%; IEI -0.21%; TIP -0.24%

We retained our EVIL HEDGE position on the long end but otherwise did nothing.

In summary:

If you're the BLACK LAB (into a tighter FED)...

 And LB is too much of a gentleman to say (so CV will say it for him)... "Macro Man... you're STILL blowing those pretty BUBBLES"...

Liverpool 3 - West Ham 0

Morning Audibles 4.19.10 - D2AG (Day 2 After Goldman)

I'm not going to add anything to Andy's comments from his Sunday night thread because there is no way I could improve on it (except, perhaps to add this)...

Happy Birthday "k" & "BinT"

From Andy T - 4/18/10 (running comments on previous thread)

So, last week ends with the SEC charging the almighty and all powerful Goldman Sachs with securities fraud related to their "packaging" of toxic CDOs. What to make of it? Here's the problem from a trading perspective: Bull moves usually don't end on "bearish" news and events. They almost aways end when all the news is bullish and every bullish factor is "priced in." With that in mind, I'm a little skeptical that the overall advance ended at 1214. However, the candlesticks are UGLY and the market is peaking right into the 61.8% of the entire decline. On top of that, it's the seasonal time of year for stocks to start beating a retreat. So, the medium term picture looks bearish. "Investors" and traders should be prepared for at least a 10% market decline.

Embedded below this Scribd document are a couple of libertarian-leaning clips I found this weekend in light of the recent "Tax Day." Don't watch them if you believe that government offers "solutions."

S&P 500 Update 18 Apr 10 While I disagree with his ideas on money creation and causes of the Great Depression, Milton Friedman was a pretty clear thinker on several subjects. Here is on poverty in 1977-1978... I often say that accountants and lawyers are the "barnacles" on the ship that is American society in that they tend to "slow down" the economy. Indeed...

Sunday S&P 500 Update

So, last week ends with the SEC charging the almighty and all powerful Goldman Sachs with securities fraud related to their "packaging" of toxic CDOs. What to make of it? Here's the problem from a trading perspective: Bull moves usually don't end on "bearish" news and events. They almost aways end when all the news is bullish and every bullish factor is "priced in." With that in mind, I'm a little skeptical that the overall advance ended at 1214. However, the candlesticks are UGLY and the market is peaking right into the 61.8% of the entire decline. On top of that, it's the seasonal time of year for stocks to start beating a retreat. So, the medium term picture looks bearish. "Investors" and traders should be prepared for at least a 10% market decline.

Embedded below this Scribd document are a couple of libertarian-leaning clips I found this weekend in light of the recent "Tax Day." Don't watch them if you believe that government offers "solutions."

S&P 500 Update 18 Apr 10


While I disagree with his ideas on money creation and causes of the Great Depression, Milton Friedman was a pretty clear thinker on several subjects. Here is on poverty in 1977-1978...



I often say that accountants and lawyers are the "barnacles" on the ship that is American society in that they tend to "slow down" the economy. Indeed...