Out to Lunch 4.9.10 - Lather, Rinse, Repeat, Repeat

There's no getting around me saying this right now, so I'm just going to say it and get it over with (then, hopefully never talk about it again)... The futures are pointing, um, "North"... Of course that idea helps some and hurts others (depending on how you're positioned, I suppose)... CV keeps waking up and try to find SOMETHING, ANYTHING, that would shock equity markets back to their senses, but we seem to be stuck in an endless cycle of "Lather, Rinse, Repeat" (and frankly, there ain't much RINSING going on - as the case may be).

Here we are on ANOTHER Friday. This weeks "rinsing" came at the hand of MOMO Mondays, followed by some lukewarm bill & bond auctions, all under the cloud of Greek bailouts, and central bank chairmen flapping their gums. Yet here we are poised to end the week with the 6th straight WEEKLY green candle (& the 8th out of the last 9)... Such a string of weeks (6 straight) has not been achieved since the first six weeks off the March '09 lows... What makes it difficult for BEARS (if there are any), is that for almost the entire year they've been conditioned to see "short covering" on Fridays in anticipation of "Melt-Up Monday"... I'm DEFINITELY not making the case that it will happen again here, but there are Pavlov's, & there are dogs...

If you happen to be the latter, chances are that one day you envision yourself having this conversation with your friends, but today may not be that day.

Creepy that Pavlov bears a striking resemblance to Bernanke!

If you've been reading the comment section of this blog the past week, you might recall various "psychological" and/or "technical" numbers being tossed out... DOW 11,000, SPX 1200; plus some more technically oriented numbers like the 1220 range on the S&P... Keep in mind that even the HIGHER numbers are only around 3% away from where we are right now... Markets can move 3% INTRADAY on euphoria... They can also sell off to the same degrees on panic... It seems the RomAmericans like their Gladiator Games to be more spectacular as time progresses, so it appears that TPTB seem content to drive us headlong into what will end up being an increasingly more spectacular crash... Have fun while it lasts!... And you know what I say? Don't even bother to stow your tray table in the upright position for landing... Live life on the edge!... Do you really think stowing your tray table is all that important as the "wizard" engineers his SOFT LANDING?

Or, if all this bothers you? Just go check out to see what Tiger is doing.

Look! Tiger is in contention! Let the cussing & club throwing begin!

Morning Audibles 4.09.10 - Lather, Rinse, Repeat

There's no getting around me saying this right now, so I'm just going to say it and get it over with (then, hopefully never talk about it again)... The futures are pointing, um, "North"...


Of course that idea helps some and hurts others (depending on how you're positioned, I suppose)...


CV keeps waking up and try to find SOMETHING, ANYTHING, that would shock equity markets back to their senses, but we seem to be stuck in an endless cycle of "Lather, Rinse, Repeat" (and frankly, there ain't much RINSING going on - as the case may be).

Here we are on ANOTHER Friday. This weeks "rinsing" came at the hand of MOMO Mondays, followed by some lukewarm bill & bond auctions, all under the cloud of Greek bailouts, and central bank chairmen flapping their gums. Yet here we are poised to end the week with the 6th straight WEEKLY green candle (& the 8th out of the last 9)... Such a string of weeks (6 straight) has not been achieved since the first six weeks off the March '09 lows...


What makes it difficult for BEARS (if there are any), is that for almost the entire year they've been conditioned to see "short covering" on Fridays in anticipation of "Melt-Up Monday"... I'm DEFINITELY not making the case that it will happen again here, but there are Pavlov's, & there are dogs...

If you happen to be the latter, chances are that one day you envision yourself having this conversation with your friends, but today may not be that day.

Creepy that Pavlov bears a striking resemblance to Bernanke!

If you've been reading the comment section of this blog the past week, you might recall various "psychological" and/or "technical" numbers being tossed out... DOW 11,000, SPX 1200; plus some more technically oriented numbers like the 1220 range on the S&P... Keep in mind that even the HIGHER numbers are only around 3% away from where we are right now... Markets can move 3% INTRADAY on euphoria... They can also sell off to the same degrees on panic...


It seems the RomAmericans like their Gladiator Games to be more spectacular as time progresses, so it appears that TPTB seem content to drive us headlong into what will end up being an increasingly more spectacular crash...


Have fun while it lasts!... And you know what I say? Don't even bother to stow your tray table in the upright position for landing... Live life on the edge!... Do you really think stowing your tray table is all that important as the "wizard" engineers his SOFT LANDING?

Or, if all this bothers you? Just go check out to see what Tiger is doing.

Look! Tiger is in contention! Let the cussing & club throwing begin!

Afternoon Delight 4.8.10

It seems, from my vantage point, that BLOGGER goes haywire after 200 comments are reached... I'm trying an experiment here to see if a NEW THREAD solves the problem...

Morning Audibles 4.08.10 - RELEASE THE KRACKEN!

Brother of ZEUS: "Brother...it is time for mortals to pay... my child wants to do your will"...


ZEUS: pauses, contemplates, turns and bellows in a raspy bass voice "RELEASE THE KRACKEN"!


OK, I'm sorry, but the EMBED function was disabled on the video, so you have to click to see it here... (take time to watch it as it will SET the rest of the storyline)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMOqes6zwIk

Since 1981 (the ORIGINAL "Clash of the Titans"), this has always been one of CV's favorite lines... However, it must be used extremely judiciously... It can either be one of the most POWERFUL utterances imaginable (as it can literally release HELL ON EARTH), or, it can become a cocktail joke...


CV is trying, here, to use it (as Zeus would), to precipitate a market correction (Note: CV may have one or two KRACKENS in reserve - let's call it the "three strike" rule - last FAILED KRACKEN and you're out - you're "stripped" of your godly powers)...


But I'm feeling good, yesterday I won a cup of coffee at the carnival... So today, I'm RELEASING THE KRACKEN!... But let me PREFACE that... I'm writing this at 23:00 Wednesday evening... This thread will launch very early tomorrow AM... I'm not even checking futures before I make this call... But I think the morning may start out rather benign... I could even see a move to 1190 sometime in the AM... But if we can't make 1194 tomorrow (today)... I hereby RELEASE THE KRACKEN!


Lloyd & Jamie can only HOPE to release the KRACKEN as I do!


OK, whatever... Silliness aside... Here's what Lloyd & Jamie PROBABLY think of CV "releasing the KRACKEN"...

And LB... This version of "RELEASE THE KRACKEN" is 100% for you!

CV only desires that his "CLASH OF THE TITANS" epic doesn't get turned into "TITS OF THE CLASHONS"

Morning Audibles 4.7.10 - Some Crappy 2 Bit TA

About 90% of what I've been reading lately are articles and comments which try to underline, (or 'debunk') the notion that the market seems OVERBOUGHT at the moment. Half say equities are due for some kind of correction, the other half say we're 'in the clear' (as many of the REASONS for it to possibly go down - from technical barriers, to EW patterns, to OPEXpirations, to bond sales, to Greek defaults - don't seem to be having any effect on the ARMOR of the indices). 


I've decided to look at the situation from a simpler view (note: there are SOME annotations on the charts, but a lot of my comments you can just read here). 

VIX DAILY - Since the March '09 lows, when the DAILY VIX has pierced it's DAILY bollinger bands, it's tended to lead to 'minor' corrections (mostly UNDER 5%, and more often than not, smaller than that, generally in the 2-3% range). We've also been discussing the 16 level on the VIX (which served as the level in October '07, and in May '08), something to keep in mind as the VIX hit 16.23 yesterday.

VIX WEEKLY - More interesting to me is how the VIX has behaved when it has pierced the lower bollingers on a WEEKLY chart. This is indeed a rare occurrence. Most recently it did that in January '10. Usually this is a signal that a DEEPER correction is coming (in the 10% range). What's interesting most recently though, is that the lower bollingers have stretched all the way down to the "14" handle. So for this to occur, we'd either need some shock to the system to occur, or, as bulls may have it, we may just find ourselves at ZERO soon and the DOW would just continue to chug along to 36,000 about the rate of a half a percent per day.

SPX - I then decided to take a look at TIMESCALES (since the March '09 low). The boxes you see annotated are the number of days [trough to peak], in the rallies we've experienced. The first rally I counted from the EOQ '09 (instead of the actual low) because it actually did represent a "correction low. Note that all of the rallies have thus far been very close to the FIBONACCI number of 55. Interestingly, the duration of the all of the "corrections" from these boxes were EXACT fibonacci numbers (21, 8, & 13 respectively). I did take a little creative license in saying that the MIDDLE BOX actually finished in September of '09, then took a little dip and resumed. However, the eventual EXTENSION did finish with the same design.


The reason I point that out is that we may be in front of the same type of phenomenon here. We are 41 days into the most recent rally... 55 days, from here, seems like an "eternity" when one considers how technically overbought the markets may seem in this moment. Half the people are calling for us to "complete" a move to 1200, or the 1220's. The other half CAN'T BEAR to endure another 13 trading days of drudgery (if the case is to be made to make ANOTHER sequential 51-55 box as I've illustrated on the chart).


Anyway, you decide. But CV is always thinking of ways to keep his sanity. My ideas and 10 cents will get you a cup of coffee (assuming you don't spill the beans all over the floor). 

& if you're thinking... "CV, you CANNOT get a "caramel macchiato" from Starbucks for 10 cents"... Oh contraire! Here's the "do it at home" version:



Ingredients
6 ounces coffee (brewed)
6 ounces milk (steamed)
1-2 teaspoon sugar or Splenda sugar substitute (to taste)
3 teaspoons caramel syrup
1/2 teaspoon artificial vanilla flavoring
reddi whipped cream
caramel syrup, drizzled

Directions
- To make a strong coffee, you can brew a ratio of 3 heaping tbsp of coffee to 6 cups water.
- Add vanillia to the coffee grinds before making the coffee, that way it will infuse while brewing.
- Once coffee is done brewing, place milk in a large cup and microwave until hot.
- In a tall glass combine the coffee, milk, and caramel syrup and stir well.
- Add sugar in small increments until desired sweetness is achieved, don't forget that the caramel will sweeten this beverage as well.
- Top with whipped cream and drizzle caramel.

If you need me to teach you how to make caramel syrup, that's the NEXT lesson