10YR NOTE-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 119.594
rev= 123.578; mid= 121.586
The 10yr note has held its 50% retrace for the past month. Has it bottomed? The lows have held the SMA(55). Is that the level if broken that will initiate QE3?
MUBnew low 96.26
trend=down
low= 96.26
rev= 101.61; mid= 98.94
And I thought IQI was having a bad day.
IYR-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
rev= 57.62; mid= 55.68
Running out of steam as it continues to get rejected at its 50% retrace. Considering that home prices are still on the decline what is holding it up? 10yr and 30yr yields are still moving higher and foreclosures are being held up (for good reason). Por favor explique.
Bernanke is not finished. This China visit shows the problem to all of us. Hu is going to be treated like a true friend with all the trimmings on this visit. Truth is, China's command economy has decided they would like to lead the world at this juncture and with low wages and an undervalued yuan, they may pull it off. Our run was based on deficit spending year after year, and we must pull in the reins here. We will spend less.
ReplyDeleteDid England come back after it fell and after the pound was devalued? No. And I expect we won't either. It is probably time to tell Japan they will need to take more responsibility for their defense in regards to Korea and China, and time to tell Europe to keep their own eye on Russia.
If China pulls this off, and I have my doubts, they will in time run into the same problems we did. Costs of armed forces, pollution clean-up, care of its citizens, that sort of thing.
Besides, before WWI we didn't have these high ideas about destiny...do you really think the average Canadian feels much different each day he goes to work than the average American?
ReplyDeleteBinT
ReplyDeleteThis picture says it all...
http://tinypic.com/r/2pzy2kh/7
From this article...
http://www.economist.com/node/17797714
Citigroup WTE .04 vs est .07. I guess some of the TBTF are out of accounting gimmicks to boost EPS.
ReplyDeleteA lot of IYR is REITs that own commercial property. Since the economy didn't grins to a halt for very long, and malls are not yet "ghost malls", the CRE sector has recovered. So this part of IYR is solid for now. The debt rollovers were saved by the BEN BERNANK's ZIRPy policies. This sector is absolutely crucial to the elite, which is why rates will not spiral upwards. If they do it is all over for these guys. Not going to happen. See Japan.
ReplyDeleteWith all of the lying cheating and subterfuge Pandit can manage....
ReplyDeleteWTE? WTF? Is the mood of the news stream about to change?
Q4 revenue USD 18.37 billion vs. Exp. USD 20.36 billion.
ReplyDeleteC revenue missed by 10%... 10% ??? This really is a turd in the banking sector swimming pool. Wonder if there are more to come?
The BRIAN SACK will be XTRA busy today trying to hold the SPOOZ up above the water line.
Well, you saw my hedge fund, that's how I got the job...
ReplyDeleteAh yes, Old Lane, wasn't it?
ReplyDeleteThat was one of the darkest alleys on the Street.
10% down, that's nothing, I got a bonus if I did that well in the past, 2/20...
ReplyDeleteWe will be watching MUNIS today. How deep will the knife sink into the butter, and will JOHN E and the STATE PENSION FUNDS sell in a blind panic? Let me count the ways that pension funds are screwed.....
ReplyDeleteWe are certainly hoping for more panic !
ReplyDeletePanic is The New Normal
ReplyDeleteBread riots are the New Normal
ReplyDeleteLet them eat Cake.
ReplyDeleteQu'est-ce que c'est? Pas de pain?
ReplyDeleteQuelle horreur !
AAPL slammed!
ReplyDeletedown 5%
Got news for you, Vik.
ReplyDeleteYou get the 2 for showing up.
But you have to make money to get the 20 !
AAPL is 20% of the NAZZ. Think about that.
ReplyDeleteI told them I wasn't that good at sums...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexlive.com/160171/all/healthy-us-capital-inflows-into-us-in-november
ReplyDeleteTalk all you want about this guy or that guy buying Spanish bonds…at the end of the day, money continues to flow into the US…
If there is buying of the 10yr & 30yr USTs then why is the yield on them also increasing?
ReplyDelete""Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteAAPL is 20% of the NAZZ. Think about that.""
QQQQ is only down 0.75%... now
apple is not really getting slammed, it's already recovered 50% of the loss from yesterday, lets see what happens rest of the day, and lets not forget everyone and their mother has been chanting "buy the dip" for over two months now, there are notes on nearly every desk this morning from the "top analysts" saying to buy apple and if there is one thing everyone "knows for sure" it's that apple is the best company in the world.....ever.
ReplyDeletemeanwhile in what might be described as a bank CEO's wet dream environment, Citi still misses earnings by 50% and get this, apparently their trading desk was a contributing factor in the miss, can't help but laugh about that.
put call ratio is amazingly low
morning! up for the bell, anyway.. but i thot futures were green.. pls point out the dip as this is obviously my big chance.. oops, i missed it.
ReplyDeletethe dip happened yesterday
ReplyDeletewell, it looks as tho uup is toast.. next stop 22?
ReplyDeletetbt is at critcal point.. nearly a breakout right now from wedge
Or maybe pre-market. I missed it too. Got an alert from one of my darling subscription services about how AAPL was going to open "at support."
ReplyDeleteJenn, you can still buy GS!
ReplyDeleteInteresting...I see that DR is saying that muni selling is overdone this morning.
ReplyDeleteKaren -- I'd rather shovel the driveway than buy GS. At this point, its a matter of principle.
ReplyDeleteAFIA2BNL
ReplyDeleteYields are up and there is still buying of USTs. What gives?
Muni selling is overdone.
ReplyDeleteI am going to shovel the driveway.
The JBTFD crowd are about to get hosed...
ReplyDeleteJennifer, shoveling driveways is fun.. LOL.. who wouldn't rather shovel a driveway?!
ReplyDeletezerohedge
ReplyDeleteRumor of fat finger causing drop in T-notes
Steve Sears
ReplyDeleteCitigroup Q4 Could Make or Break the Bank http://on.barrons.com/hJ1BuR
(6 min ago) tradefast
ReplyDeletei think fade $AAPL here - small short
tradefast is my bull! he is being unamerican !!
TLT.. if it breaks 91.. are we still Japan, LB?
ReplyDeleteRa:
ReplyDeleteUSTs ARE NOT GOING TO BLOW UP. WE ARE THE NEW JAPAN.
OK. Once you internalize that, you will see the big picture. We are in a slow deleveraging event, and that will be accompanied by LOWER YIELDS. The selling of Ts that led to higher yields was the reversal of a crowded QE trade by the HFs. That event is over.
Look at Rosenberg's little presentation where he shows the time series of JGB 10y yields, it is very instructive. There were some little bumps but it just kept on falling and falling. This is ZIRP. It is a black hole for liquidity and guess where the liquidity is trapped?
- it is in JGBs/USTs, and in German bunds.
Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece can't do this b/c they are not monetarily sovereign. Japan is, US is so they can QEaze. JPY and USD are safety vehicle currencies.
Iceland can devalue but this creates inflation as there is no demand for the Icelandic kronur. The UK is in the middle, they can QEaze but must beware hyperinflation b/c there is little demand for GBP in the region.
Low in TLT was at about 88, so 91 is not a line in the sand.
ReplyDeleteI would be buying a 90 handle, and an 89 handle with both hands.
Minyanville Media
ReplyDeleteCheck out a free preview of Jeff Cooper's market report. http://bit.ly/edr5p3
low in TLT is 80.23.. summer of 2008
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/01/report-first-two-years-of-college-show.html
ReplyDeleteInteresting reading if you've got some quiet time -- I'm not really surprised, but I guess it is worse than I thought. Coincidentally, we are being bombarded with ads for Landmark College, some place in VT that helps kids w/ learning disabilities handle real college (no doubt at a hefty price.)
I meant last year's low, corresponds to about a 4% 10y yield. 80.23 corresponds to a 5.00-5.50% 10y. That is not happening any time soon.
ReplyDeleteIf they lose the long end....
HOUSING is toast. CRE is toast. CORPORATE DEBT roll-overs are toast. The US equity market is toast. The FED is toast.
This is NOT going to happen. People lost billions betting against JGBs. Don't be that person. Right, Gary?
i'm just sayin' cuz.. well, we should know soon.. TBT will break down instead of up and we should see a sell off in equities.. albeit brief.. they don't want to frighten the sheep.
ReplyDeleteif GS hits 171.36 buy, buy, buy, btw.. especially if you think the house is in control.
I should jolly well say so. Yes, indeed.
ReplyDeleteWe are ears deep and asshole long the 30y.
The whole college issue is fascinating to me. The uber competitive schools seem to have more and more applications every year. Combine that with a drive to admit more foreign kids, promote diversity of every kind, it is harder than ever to get in. On the other end of the spectrum, there are clearly (highlighted in FMMF's article above, many schools that take the walking dead, milk them for all they're worth, and send them off into the world with no real skills. I have a nephew who is a college freshman at a so-so midwest school this year. We helped him with the application process. It doesn't seem like there is a real "middle ground" anymore -- a school you can actually get in to that will actually teach you something. I guess I have about 7 years to worry about this :-)
ReplyDeletehere you go, btdippers-
ReplyDeleteJeff Saut: What Should You Buy on a Pullback? http://bit.ly/f4U2mz
Jenn.. my nephew went to LandMark.. not sure he finished, however.
ReplyDeleteHe did do a fantastic semester at sea, I remember..
"Jennifer said... The whole college issue is fascinating to me."
ReplyDeleteJust keep that attitude! Son number 2 is in his second year.. I'll tell you what, even better than that college diploma? Having one accept an offer letter..
Leftback.
ReplyDeleteIs Liverpool going to get relegated? Geez....
It doesn't seem like there is a real "middle ground" anymore -- a school you can actually get in to that will actually teach you something.
ReplyDeleteThe better State schools, e.g. SUNY Stony Brook, and most of the Cal system are great value for the money. The small NE liberal arts colleges are great but very expensive. The Ivies are overpriced. Most big box state schools are simply diploma mills that churn out mediocrity at best. The lower echelons of the US university system are truly dire. Many graduates are barely literate and numerate.
LB.. I am NOT disagreeing with you, btw.. i'm just keeping an open mind because I can only say what I see here on the charts.. I would concede, however, that gold seems to be saying that yields will fall again.
ReplyDeleteWhat happens when the world's reserve currency is the carry trade? Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Is Liverpool going to get relegated?
ReplyDeleteNo. But we are going to have to scrap for every point.
40 points stays up, we have 26. 14 more to go...
tell me about it : (
ReplyDeleteNew blog post: DXY consolidating below key support http://www.forexlive.com/160208/all/dxy-consolidating-below-key-support
What happens when the world's reserve currency is the carry trade?
ReplyDeleteThis, and the bread riots, are going to place severe restrictions on the performance of risk assets....
there goes TLT.. JFC.
ReplyDeleteEEM cannot get going even on a down day for BUCKY.
ReplyDeleteThat's not bullish for that trade.
Which is good, b/c we are short it.
BTW we agree with the following meme:
CHINA is a massively fraudulent over-leveraged hot money hyper-inflationary bubble that will burst in a big ugly way.
2s30s just hit 401 bps. Massive buy signal flashing for bonds. Keep your eye on munis. If they bounce while this yield move is going on it means that someone has been told to accumulate them with Benny bucks.
ReplyDelete4.60% on the 30y is delicious in a basically no growth environment with 17% unemployment. The only growth here in the US is the FED's balance sheet and the BERNANK's nose.
A bounce is on in MUB and IQI. Let's see if this sticks or if someone is trying to engineer an exit.
ReplyDeleteMRK...
ReplyDeleteMRK P/E 9 and yield 4.4....
ReplyDeleteGetting tasty, keep an eye on that knife.
LQD broke down out of the wedge. Just sayin'.
ReplyDeleteWe are entering the band of 4.60-4.80% on the 30y that we discussed as a buy target. With commodities where they are now, it is difficult to see yields breaking out of that band. We suggest beginning to accumulate some Treasuries.
ReplyDeletehttp://etfstocks.typepad.com/
ReplyDeleteVIX approaching long term support. (or zero, whichever comes first.)
Take your pick of yield vehicles here.
ReplyDeleteThe 30y at 4.6% or MRK at 4.4%.
I doubt that both of these can blow up, and I suspect that neither will.
Bonds and divvies will see us through this thing.
Short the emergings and selected commodity vehicles.
Zero is long term support.....
ReplyDeleteEURUSD backed off from 1.34, finally.
ReplyDeleteYou mean there is still a debt crisis over there ???
Can't get the sucka past the flat line, what's going on?
ReplyDeleteCan I interest you in RARE EARTH STOCKS, JOHNEEEEEEEE ?
ReplyDeleteWe recommend rare earths and emerging markups.
ReplyDeleteI mean, markets.
I am so not happening. Just FYI...
ReplyDeleteJust joined Billy on the front lines with some of the high yielding munis. Couldnt resist the 8+%ers. Might be early, but these look pretty juicy.
ReplyDeleteFighting the tape never made anyone a dime.
ReplyDeleteBut a tape with a 4 handle range is taking everyones dime.
ReplyDeleteColin
ReplyDeleteAgreed. Have been thinking along the same lines. However, the November, December and January bounces in munis didn't end well. Still sitting and watching for now.
"Fighting the tape never made anyone a dime."
ReplyDeleteTape isn't doing much of anything, today, really, is it?
Do you have something more illuminating to offer?
http://www.forexlive.com/160228/all/lotsa-buzz-about-this
ReplyDeleteBy Jamie Coleman || January 18, 2011 at 16:32 GMT
|| 3 comments || Add comment
Who’s cranking up the printing presses?
Why Ireland, it turns out.
They’re using a power granted to them in the Lisbon Treaty to create money from nothing that virtually no one knew they had…
I wonder if China is aware of this little nugget as they run around the continent snapping up government debt…
anon @8:04...
ReplyDeleteYes, exactly. I am not against what America stands for in the world, but the fact is government fails when it tries to do things on a scale like this. You decide you are going to be the world's policeman, but you put it on the credit card year after year, and eventually it ceases to work.
I still think a balanced budget amendment would be the sanest thing this congress and this president could do in the next two years. The rest of it, including enabling FED chairmen, would take care of itself.
Finally got to the mine...
The Economist
ReplyDeleteThis week's most recommended article - Chinese foreign policy: Tough new attitude is dangerous and counterproductive http://econ.st/gbDIdw
Karen:
ReplyDeleteThe snow is melting! Finally! The deer are back in the pastures. We finally got our UPS package yesterday out in the boonies where the Ponderosa is located..
who's the anon on my MRK trade? I took some starter long action on that chart on the further dip today, stock is down roughly 10% in a very short period of time here. The AZN chart in this space could be interesting for trading as well, if the market rallies all the way until summer you'll get two quarters of divvies from them as well.
ReplyDeletere: VIX
I can see the case for a five wave move to the high's during the crises, looks like an extended fifth wave in that pattern after a wave iv that took longer than wave ii, from the highs a giant ABC correction, where the C wave is going to end I don't know and maybe we shouldn't even count the VIX but we've got moronic put/call ratio and advancing issues getting weaker as the rally has extended and new 52 week lows, while small right now, are increasing at the same time. Complacency reigns supreme, lots of QEtards out there boys and girls.
Also see lots of weaker volume on stocks that have been rising, sentiment very bullish (lots of rationalizing about this right now as well) I'd wait before going balls deep short because I still think we could go to 1350 with some sort of blow-off top here, that said, given how cheap puts have gotten, you can put on some nice option spreads several months out that could pay very well without fronting much money.
re: college, I went to a school that's perhaps considered one of the one's that produce the mediocre at best students, it's all good people think this way, I've done way more than most people I know my age and I have exactly $0 in student loans. On the other hand, the top kid in my high school went to Yale, developed a nice coke habit there and now lives at home with mom and dad, another real smart kid I knew from HS got a full ride to Case Western, he dropped out, working at the family biz now.
The wealthiest guy I know didn't go to college, the second wealthiest one I know went to Rutgers, probably another school that produces mediocre folks at best. Know a young kid from DE here, barely made it through college, had a kid when he was 16, he makes about 2.5 million a year trading bonds, bought himself a nice Aston Martin to go along with his million dollar condo in Chicago, all before he was 28 years old. Of course, his taxes are going up now... Maybe we all should have spent our time getting MBA's at Ivy League schools instead getting out in the world and making some money
bottom line, imo life is what you make it, the school you go to hardly determines where you end up, though I would agree it determines where a lot of people start out
I know a lot of you don't like the strategy but selling some covered calls on stocks like MRK this year could produce some nice low risk returns/income
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteI read the Irish article early this morning, and I find it incredible if it is actually true. That the government being bailed has this much power to fiscally enslave future citizens. (Meaning starting tomorrow..)
The leader of Ireland has a 14% approval rate...
Re: the college issue.
ReplyDeleteI went to one of the big boys, and I have to say, college is always going to be what you make of it. Some people worked hard, others didn't, and most people ultimately ended up where they wanted to. The bigger issue is that these major schools are filters for the rich/legacies to push their kids into the upper tiers (and better jobs) under the guise of merit.
But in response to the "study" that says kids don't learn anything. SATs (which I am assuming they used) are used as a predictor of college success, not a measure of intelligence per say. So colleges are not really trying to maximize their student's SAT scores. This isn't to say ppl aren't wasting alot of money and time not learning, but take these studies with a grain of salt.
dzz really could be interesting here
ReplyDeletedo I have the stones for it
nah, not likely
but maybe some ninja's could find a good entry
wow.. really hope this isn't the dead cat bounce for the dollar, but an eleventh hour reassertment of the uptrend.. (i might have made that word up..)
ReplyDeleteMS.. just sent out missive.. JBTFD on appl ahead of earnings..
ReplyDeletemy love affair with the dollar is back on, I just can't leave that bitch, every time I try, she pulls me right back in
ReplyDeletethanks MS, the wall street broken record is in full effect, as was revealed in all its glory on CNBC this morning, after trotting out James Cramer who is "bullish appl, just 7 points lower though" they revealed that virtually every anal_yst at every bank was buying the dip in aapl.
ReplyDeleteJohn E is getting what we might refer to as the "hard sell"
like that dude with brass balls says
ABC
also, that comment above about how Q4 could "break C", also hilarious
ReplyDeletewhat's worse, an earnings miss of the 2007/08 credit crisis? but sure, it's Q4 that could break that bank
jokers
http://pragcap.com/bernsteins-4-phases-of-a-bull-market
ReplyDeleteRichard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch’s former Chief Equity Strategist and founder of Richard Bernstein Advisors says the US equity markets remain in the early phases of a new bull market. According to Bernstein investors are still far too cautious and in denial over the sustainability of the market run. Bernstein says we are currently sitting somewhere between stages one and two of the bull market:
from today's pfenning:
ReplyDeleteAnd then on another front, the dollar is having to fight off the calls that China was "dissing the dollar" yesterday... In my opinion, that's exatly what China's Premier, Hu, was doing... It was like the children's book, Horton Hears A Who... This time it was "The dollar hears a Hu"! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Basically, this is just another step for the Chinese, folks... the have to begin this verbal assault on the dollar's ability to be the world's reserve currency, and build a portfolio, if you will, of reasons why they feel that way, so one day, in the future, when the renminbi is ready, they can bring out all these reasons, and make a case for their currency to dethrone the dollar. For those of you who did not see or hear what Mr. Hu, had to say... Check this out...
"The current internationa currency system is the PRODUCT OF THE PAST" Hu said in a written response to questions posed by writers ahead of his meeting with the U.S. President today. Highlighting the dollar's importance to global trade, Hu impliitly critcized the Fed's recent decision to pump $600 Billion (QE2) into the U.S. economy, a move criticized as weakening the dollar at the expense of other countries' exports. Hu, went on to say, "The monetary policy of the United States has a major impact on global liquidity and capital flows and therefore, the liquidity of the U.S. dollar should be kept a a reasonable and stable level."
4 phases my ass.
ReplyDeleteThat's all bull. We are in ZIRP.
Good data is bad news, and bad data is good news.
Japanese investors were bullish too, I am sure.
Eventually someone is going to get pantsed.
Didn't miss much while I was away.
Interesting that a squeeze of Euro shorts can't gun the market....
"when the renminbi is ready"
ReplyDeleteROR. China is a really really large farm with fancy iron gates.
This is all going to cost people a lot of money.
China 2010 = USA 1929. It is mainly foreign capital.
Once the fraud is revealed, there will be a run for the exits.
Crash, part deux.
Camden follows Newark with police cuts. Crime is coming.
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110118/ap_on_re_us/us_camden_layoffs
Of course, these places don't matter and the inhabitants are not really people to the BERNANK or to F. Charles Weaselton III, equity strategist at Rippemoff Bankcorp. So it's all good.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/01/14/132940442/the-friday-podcast-the-frankenstein-mortgage
ReplyDeleteGreat old guy at 107, but read the generational warfare in the comments. Now seriously, it's not this guy's fault. Although he was a banker....
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/111841/view-of-retirement-at-107?mod=fidelity-livingretirement&cat=fidelity_2010_living_in_retirement
Citi:
ReplyDeleteGerspach told reporters the bank had about $150 million of gains from principal trading in the third quarter, and “virtually zero” in the fourth.
WTF? That was a great quarter, all you had to do was get long Ts in July and then sell em in October and buy anything else that had a pulse...
unless you are a bank, and had to hold all your Treasuries, b/c you need Tier 1 capital, b/c you are.. you know, insolvent.
I think it's pretty funny how Fidelity runs so many articles about how to get to retirement. As if they are helping anyone get there.
ReplyDeletefidelity at one point not long ago ran 1 out of every 3 401k's in the country, most of Fidelity's flagship funds have returned 0 or even worse lost money over the last decade and their "customers" in 401ks have the balances and the 401k loans to show for it.
Over that period of time they collected many billions in investment mgmt fees, last I checked, Abigail Johnson was worth several billion dollars, one of the greatest skimming schemes ever run here in the states.
Now.....Follow that green line
Hinde Capital's Ben Davies On The 11 Threats That Should Terrify Investors And Push Gold Higher http://read.bi/fmpvNe
ReplyDelete"I know a lot of you don't like the strategy but selling some covered calls on stocks like MRK this year could produce some nice low risk returns/income"
ReplyDeleteI like the strategy, but I would caution to (1) not have calls outstanding during divvy periods and (2) make sure you are getting enough premium per sell.
Re: University: The "good" ones are the same as the "bad" ones (education-wise). The only difference is the "good" ones have more severe grade inflation and a better name (each of which will aid in landing a job).
The whole "higher" education paradigm is a huge scam. Americans have so many educational resources available to them, they could cut education costs by 90 percent or more by self educating (which is what you really do in college anyway).
On the job education is much better anyway. Colleges, at best, can offer education on generic subjects. In the business world, everyone ends up working with proprietary models/technology that needs to be learnt from square one.
Businesses have basically tried to push training onto the government via post-secondary education, but they have all found out that they need to retrain all college grads anyway. Why not just start them out of high school and pay them less while they are in training. That equals less debt for students, more relevant education for workers, and more productivity for businesses.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/boehner-will-win-this-game-of-default-chicken-commentary-by-kevin-hassett.html
ReplyDeletePS: I should also add that universities are much better suited for training certain types of professionals like lawyers and doctors, who have more academic type positions.
ReplyDeleteThis speaks for itself. Low volume, no shorts to be seen and insiders unloading to any HARRY WANGER who happens to be around:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-buying-ratio-div0-no-insiders-bought-any-stock-prior-week
I am not very bearish US equities but buying here might be...
SOO-EE-SIDE-ELL
Thanks, Marc.
Most US universities are an extremely expensive kegger.... dude.
ReplyDeleteLittle is taught and less is learned. We admit to having attended what might be considered an élite institution, which was also totally free. Neither the entrance process nor the coursework was easy....
If Colin got long MUB and IQI this morning he is up big on the day.....
ReplyDeleteNice shooting, bud.
a good read..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/volcker-rule-us-banks-proprietary-trading/1/18/2011/id/32238
i just realized that GM and AIG have nearly identical charts since the IPO.
ReplyDeleteyoku and dang both down over 8% today.. that is interesting.
ReplyDeleteben, you could give dust a try..
Truer words have never been spoken! stockgut Invisible Chaos
ReplyDeleteTops are temporary. Bottoms are required.
Some bottoms may stand for all time.
ReplyDeleteThe Leftback Bottom™ of 3.6.09, for example has no peer....
Brain Drain: Most College Students Learn Next to Nothing, New Study Says
ReplyDeletePosted Jan 18, 2011 12:09pm EST by Stacy Curtin
Related: ^GSPC, ^SPY, COCO, APOL, DV, ESI, ^DJI
With millions of people out of work in this country -- many who have college degrees and even advanced degrees -- rising tuition costs have many wondering if college students are getting the bang for their parent's buck. (See: Rethinking College as Student-Loan Burdens Rise)
A new study suggests, “not hardly,” if the goal of earning a four-year college degree is to actually learn something.
The report based on the book Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses found that after two years of college, 45% of students learned little to nothing. After four years, 36% of students learned almost nothing.
Lack of Learning
Most people would jump to the conclusion that it is the fault of the college student who just wants to have fun and party, but that’s not entirely the full picture. Even though students are about 50% less likely to study today than in previous decades, the report found universities are to blame as well; largely because professors spend too much time focused on research and not enough time on the students.
On the flipside, the real world still does value a college education.
Even (and especially) in today's tough labor market, Corporate America agrees that, "yes" college is worth every penny as most employers consider a college degree a prerequisite for employment.
Do you think college is worth the cost?
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/brain-drain-most-college-students-learn-next-to-nothing-new-study-says-yftt_535824.html
DUST has behaved as it is advertised to, we have used it.
ReplyDeleteMost college graduates are maroons*. Especially those from Chicago.
ReplyDelete*sophisticated joke. Actually one of the nation's few genuine seats of learning. No grade inflation there.
U of Chicago, where fun goes to die ;-)
ReplyDelete"largely because professors spend too much time focused on research and not enough time on the students."
ReplyDeleteA fine line argument. Most of my core business classes were class size of 500-700 students per session, maybe 1,400 kids in the class so they split it up in two sessions and they were held in an auditorium, you didn't ask questions in these classes, there were no discussions and every single business major at PSU had to take them. I don't know anyone in those classes that got one on one time with the prof, in fact, half the kids I knew never even set foot in one those classes, they just bought Nittany Notes and passed the exams that way, probably down at Cafe 210 sipping long islands during class time.
In classes like that you just have to figure it out on your own.
That's the one.
ReplyDelete"U of Chicago. Hell DOES freeze over."
It is an awesome place.
probably down at Cafe 210 sipping long islands
ReplyDeleteor frou-frous...
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI'll probably pass on shorting the metals, I lost on too many trades in silver last year, I'll get emotional getting involved with that again, but DUST, gotta love that ticker at least.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=PACF_TLT&t=&a=&w=&v=d3
ReplyDeleteTLT could be shaping up a nice 'double-bottom'
otro:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLT
also, remember, TLT throws off a Div., and has Options, to be Faded, for add'l 'Risk MGMT' features..
AAIP
also @ 13:43
I only did frou frou's at Players, the state college "night club" ROR, think it's called something else now, that and a steady diet of leaded and unleaded Beast, b/c you could get kegs for $35 at hickey's and hand in your empty's for a $10 credit.
ReplyDeleteand all my frou frou back then were of the disgusting variety, like some bankers club vodka with some generic packet of kool-aid, now I go high class frou frou, organic fruit punch and such.
come to think of it, I've been drinking kool-aid or kool-aid like drinks for a long time now ;-)
it's all coming together for me guys
Some nice simple TA here. Including silver....
ReplyDeleteBruce that was TA, not T & A. Go back to work.
Marky has become a bit of an artist with Ye Longge Bonde chartynge, and a connoisseur of ittes Derryvatif Productes. Perhappes he mighte even attempte Ye Mightye Wyddowmakker...?
ReplyDeleteHark, or Mark my words.
March TLT calls are going to be a nice trade.
Here's the TA. Sorry, I made the joke about T&A and then I started thinking about.... well, you know....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/graham-summers’-free-weekly-market-forecast-resistance-edition
ha! my son just texted me.. did i by aapl today? tomorrow's earnings are supposed to be over the top..
ReplyDeletemy reply, eff no. too late.. already back near highs..
More toolishness regarding Treasuries. Note the commentary from Neel "Cash and Carry" Kashkari. He wants you to sell Ts. He works for PIMPCO. Do you trust this man?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/treasuries-decline-in-new-york-trading-as-global-equities-post-increases.html
The 2s30s slope at 401 bps is NOT a sell signal. This is like nine standard deviations from normal behavior. Even THE BERNANK can't get it up much more than that. Now, in a "normal recovery", the next thing that happens is the long end drifts up to 5-6% and the short end gets absolutely slaughtered in the most bloody way possible because of real growth in the economy.
Ha ha ha ... bonk.
Start buying the long bond. Right Gary? Rosie?
I like the idea we get a sell off to 1250 (bottom of the trading channel). Too many JBTFDers to get below that, one imagines.
ReplyDeleteThree shot at Los Angeles high school; gunman at large - Los Angeles Times http://lat.ms/fUQvbB
ReplyDeleteOf course we'd love to see the KT.
ReplyDeleteBut that's not strictly speaking a market call....
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/01/18/sec-keeping-close-tabs-bofas-wikileaks-situation/
ReplyDeleteb22-
ReplyDeleteWere you able to get beast bottles? They came in a returnable, indestructible carton. Fill it with the empties and it was better than concrete block for elevating beds for lofts...
Good old days...
Three shot at Los Angeles high school
ReplyDeleteNothing to do with the guns though...... I mean what is it that makes the average American more stupid on this topic than a chipmunk?
sec-keeping-close-tabs-bofas-wikileaks-situation/
ReplyDeleteMainly in case Assange has any porn. We could care less about fraud by a TBTF.
aig back at 52.. what happened to 62?
ReplyDeletecould NOT care less, you mean.
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK (AP) -- American Express Co. said Tuesday that the rate at which it wrote off its card balances as uncollectible dropped to its lowest point of the year in December. Its rate of late payments also bottomed out last month, a positive sign for the months to come.
ReplyDeleteThe card issuer said in a regulatory filing that it wrote off 4.1 percent of balances for the month, down from 4.4 percent in November. American Express, which has a more affluent customer base than most card companies, reported a peak charge-off rate of 10.2 percent in August 2009, months before other card companies saw their customers' problems paying bills start to level off.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Amex-December-writedowns-late-apf-3831404950.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Bear baiting. Albert Edwards at CNBC. Bear baiting usually reaches a crescendo near market tops. Cramer under the desk, shouting "sell it all, sell everything..." that's near a bottom.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bear-Investor-Says-I-Have-cnbc-3475208819.html;_ylt=AqKs0_b7Jy0WW6XZscq7SbW7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1dGw1Ym01BHBvcwM2BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNiZWFyaW52ZXN0b3I-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
anyone see this @ 0 Hedge ?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/case-against-treasury-bonds
will have to say, that, when presented like that, Ye Olde Longge Bonde is a bit of a sticky wicket..no?
AAIP
AX is an indicator of the TRIFURCATION in the economy.
ReplyDeleteSaks, AX, Needless Markup all doing well.
Mid level, Kohls, Target, not so much.
WMT, dollar stores being squeezed to death by costs.
No problem for C, BAC. They just lie, I mean "mark to model".
C just called me..... coincidence???
ReplyDeleteROR.
I am indeed sitting on a comfortable paper gain, but going to ride this puppy for a bit here, I think a lite sell-off in stock land could move a little money into munis, but who knows. I just cant resist trading on Bill G's coattails.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/case-against-treasury-bonds
ReplyDeleteThis guy has been wrong 999 times out of the last 1000 trades. My case against a conflagration in the long bond has been elegantly stated by Rosenberg and Shilling, and refuted over twenty years of "imminent disaster forecasts" for JGBs. Trust me, we have a few years to go.
Japan, on the other hand, may be running out of time.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteDon't look now. via forexlive
MUB making a bullish engulfing candle and IQI is making a bullish piercing candle today.
ReplyDeleteI think a lite sell-off in stock land could move a little money into munis, but who knows. I just cant resist trading on Bill G's coattails.
ReplyDeleteYes yes and yes.
Agreed on all, I am waiting to see a little more volatility and "damped oscillations" before playing this for the longer term. We are strategic asset allocators as well as traders, as one has to be in credit. I don't have to make the first 1% in gain as long as I miss the last 5% in losses.
AFIABNL
ReplyDeleteHe met with bernanke this morning for breakfast, and then had lunch with Geithner, he knows....
Could somebody clue me into what the difference is between some of the broad muni ETF's? Obviously, the state specific ones are, well, state specific. But what's the difference between, say, IQI and MUB? Duration? Credit rating? Seniority? Maybe I'm just being dense...
ReplyDeletewe stopped buying bottles of anything during my junior year for various reasons, this is probably not the best place to get into some of those details, funny as some of them are
ReplyDeletealways got the beast in kegs or cans, I don't even remember them having bottles, but a solid block could have come in handy for a few things
the only bottles we ever really bought were hurricane 40's, another high quality drink. Even our liquor usually came in something plastic, unless we were trying to impress some girls, in which case maybe we got some screw top wine or maybe for the real special ladies we bought some Boone's.
Ruh roh. The wind blew the wrong way and now the HFTs can sniff 1300...
ReplyDeletespoonman, not sure whether to thank you for the warning or cry. i better call the sump pump guys today..
ReplyDeletespoonman
ReplyDeleteI believe AFIABNL can be quoted on this. IQI equates to junk/HY and MUB equates to IG aka LQD.
ben22
ReplyDeleteNo Wild Irish Rose, Thunderbird or Cisco?
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/interesting-triple-index-weekly-overhead-levels-to-watch-closely/
ReplyDeleteGood stuff here...
Ra, thanks.
ReplyDeleteAhhh...favorite college drink recollections...tacky Chinese restaurant served up these concoctions called scorpion bowls -- had to have at least two people present to order one -- came in a big bowl with two huge straws. Good luck finding your way home.
ReplyDeleteWhat Ra said, just taking a look at their major holdings you can get a good idea of what you are working with:
ReplyDeleteMUB - http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=mub®ion=USA&culture=en-us
IQI - http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=IQI®ion=USA&culture=en-us
exactly what I was looking for Colin. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteJ
ReplyDeleteI knew Miss Kong well..?
i better call the sump pump guys today..
ReplyDeleteNo need, we can take care of any pumping needs.
@Jennifer -- Scorpion bowls from The Hong Kong Restaurant in Harvard Square??
ReplyDeleteHands off my junk!
ReplyDeleteTownie bar closest to my dorm ran a month long special on some whiskey called Yukon Jack. That was quite a month.
ReplyDeleteSorry, bob, didn't follow.
Upstairs. Very pink.
ReplyDeletemaybe for the real special ladies we bought some Boone's
ReplyDeleteNice. It was £1 a pint of John Bull at our place on Fridays. We called it "Duck and Dive Night".
Duck the punches, and dive for..*
ReplyDelete* The remainder of this post has been censored.
CA's budget crisis:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.economist.com/node/17906049?story_id=17906049&fsrc=scn/tw/te/rss/pe
MackieFear,
ReplyDeleteright? the Beast in Bottles? not that I ever remember, either..
"Hurricane 40s", that's too funny..the Market had all kinds of those 'Malt Liquors', with the accompanying backlash from the JJackson's/AlSharpton's stipulating that they were 'Mkt'd to 'Inner City Youth'/'Corrupting the Future'..
J,
that 'Scorpion Bowl' trick must be part of the "secret" Chinese Restaurant-Playbook..have seen a # of those over the years..
personally, I miss those 3 litre Bottles (Coke, Sprite, et al.)..those + a Fish Bowl led to some good Engineering..
ibid.
Comcast & NBC merger wins approval from FCC and DoJ. CNBC on the ropes?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDelete@Jennifer -- Scorpion bowls from The Hong Kong Restaurant in Harvard Square??
You know miss kong....
AAIP: the Market had all kinds of those 'Malt Liquors'
ReplyDelete"Don't let the Smooth Taste Fool Ya...... "
Epic.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/jpmorgan-s-emc-mortgage-sued-over-mortgage-loan-documents.html
ReplyDeleteFrom DOC --
ReplyDeleteSince the mid-week review of the ongoing precious metals correction in which further weakness was anticipated, gold has shed another $20, and silver has pulled back to test an important pivot. I expect a bit more selling to weigh on PMs, but I also believe the low may not be far away, time-wise. As noted in the previous post, all four of gold's intermediate cycle corrections since the 2008 liquidation have found their lows right on the 150-day moving average. If the same moving average were to hold the current decline, another $50-60 of downside is implied.
yes, I always drank my hurricanes out a of a brown paper bag, had to do it right.
ReplyDeleteor sometimes we'd tape them on our hands, you know, if it was one of "those nights"
also, the comment about 3 litres and fishbowls, priceless.
@Bob, yes I do know Miss Kong. I was the semi-proud owner of a 69 Beer Club shirt from there. I don't think they do that any more.
ReplyDelete....(laughing uncontrollably at ben....)
ReplyDelete"Don't let the Smooth Taste Fool Ya...... "
Told you that 4.60% was a screaming buy, here we are at 4.56%
ReplyDeleteTry having a conversation with a JGB or a Schatz.
ReplyDeleteWhat exactry are you imprying?
ReplyDeleteDepartment of ROR:
ReplyDeleteCNBC's Cramer says Citi (C) completely on track, let them settle, says 'Citi is cheapest stock in bank universe'
Of course they can still get cheaper....
ReplyDelete2:27PM EST: 6.50 -0.90 (12.16%)
ReplyDeleteBacterin International Holdings, Inc. (BIHI.OB)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BIHI.OB
wtf? Nice Ticker Symbol..
~~~
http://encycl.opentopia.com/term/Malt_liquor
"...At least for a brief period in the mid-1990s, some brands of malt liquor, including Olde English 800 and Mickey's, were available in even larger, 64-ounce glass bottles..."
1/2 Gal. Bottles? missed that one..
AAIP
yeah, he (Cramer) was really bullish Citi this morning, lots of comments about book value and real earnings
ReplyDeleteMight have something to do with that housing shortage he's been forecasting of late, apparently that's coming early next year in the US, just pay no attention to all the inventory we have, especially now that that fence isn't being built along the border, those empty homes should move real quick.
how so many people still take him seriously I doubt I'll ever understand
OE 64's....When 40 just isn't enough. You couldn't put them in your coat pocket though...
ReplyDeleteNo Momo?
ReplyDelete"I think a lite sell-off in stock land could move a little money into munis"
ReplyDeleteYou might be right that munis can catch a bid here, but I don't hold the view that money flows between equities and fixed incomes so nimbly. Most of the fixed income money stays in fixed income, but moves from sector to sector. I don't see a compelling case to move from corporate credit to muni credit in any major way.
how so many people still take him seriously I doubt I'll ever understand
ReplyDeleteIt's that "regular guy" shtick. Peep trust me to "stand up for the little guy" and "help 'em to make a buck".
It is actually a very sad show at Market Tops, I assume some of the brighter callers are plants and some of the stocks pumped are holdings of his "trust".
The bear mutilations were fun, but I liked him best under the desk with the spooky noises.
Fast Money is more sophisticated but still a P'n'D apart from Guy.
"or sometimes we'd tape them on our hands"
ReplyDeleteEdward Beer Hands
"Fast Money is more sophisticated"
ReplyDeleteFast Money is less sophisticated. All they do is momentum. The "Chairwoman" and Scaramoochie (or WTF his name is) are the only ones that have ever mentioned non-momentum strategies.
Most of the fixed income money stays in fixed income, but moves from sector to sector.
ReplyDeleteExactly, agreed. The FI market is so large that small flows in and out of equities don't do much. The time to run for the hills is when HYG and JNK start to melt.
I do think that HY holders are asleep at the wheel a bit, and some of the smarter money might begin to exit the "nice safe" junk bond universe for the "über-dangerous risky" muni bond.
I am sure that you catch my drift here. Watch JOHN E's moves in the bond market and do the opposite....
Fast Money is less sophisticated. All they do is momentum.
ReplyDeleteLOL. I like the highly tanned commodity a**hole best. NOT.
today is aapl AND ibm.. tomorrow, GS and the world!
ReplyDeleteno, i meant GS, WFC, USB, BK and STT..
5-Year Treasury 1.952 +0.023 +1.19%
ReplyDelete10-Year Treasury 3.364 +0.031 +0.93%
30-Year Treasury 4.561 +0.03 +0.66%
http://finviz.com/
~~
"or sometimes we'd tape them on our hands"
McB,
that's some serious 'Accion`'
ibid.
The only thing good on CNBC is CNBC Asia.
ReplyDeleteMany many banks tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteGet your FAS and FAZ on... or better still just sit it out !!!
Just trading the charts here, that's all, this market needs a sell-off and it may just get one before we JBTFD.
Insiders are not buying into this earnings season.
The 64oz bottle had a jug handle at the top so you could put the bottle on your elbow. Lift your elbow to drink ;-)
ReplyDeleteThe only thing good on Bloomberg Asia is Susan Li.
ReplyDeleteSince Bernie left, I mean.
this was really really good from optionmonster..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUiFF2jckHE&feature=player_embedded
re: taping 40's to your hands
ReplyDeleteI know some other people have done that, don't be ashamed.
I did lots of that kind of stuff in college, should have seen the elobarate beer bong I contsructed, cost me about $60 worth of hardware store materials even with my employee discount, double hose action and stoppers on the ends straight from the True Value plumbing department, none of that using your thumb stuff. I'd typically use that when wearing my yellow shirt that only said BEER on it, stole that idea from a PanterA video. Real highbrow type activity.
during one of my finer nights I filled that thing with vodka, you can imagine what followed, go ahead, get a good mental picture going for yourself it was probably pretty close to what you are thinking right now.