One year (& TWO DAYS) ago... I started this mess of a blog with this...
16 comments there... 2 by "me"... Mostly expressing confusion & reticence (except for CV - who was not confused - in that moment)... It took 5 whole days after that to match the DAY ONE TOTAL... And that occurred by virtue of 50% comments by CV... And the "other" 50% of the comments being TEXAS RADIO & E117 basically telling me how to stop being an idiot & do the fonts & color schemes "better"...
I bring this up now not for any other reason than to say the following... Well - FIRST (employing, once again, my powers of TOTAL RECALL)...
But also to say that, ironically... I've decided to resign (this blog) at this milestone... The reason is because I have nothing left to say about these markets (I discovered that yesterday)...
I've spent my time over the past year offering many insights, many metaphors, links, cross-references, pop-art, pop-music... Or, "whatever" I could conjure to keep a process which can be DULL and TEDIOUS... "Entertaining & Motivating" instead... It's not so easy of a task to do that on a daily basis (especially when you're working from scratch, and have highly intelligent minds to entertain & needed to be fed [Oh no! He said "Fed"])... Notwithstanding... I gave it my best shot...
This following is true... Since DAY ONE... I'd never looked at "blog statistics"... In fact... I never even knew those types of things were available (until today)... It could actually be that what I'm going to present to you now is "something new" (a new feature) from BLOGGER... I wouldn't know because as I said... "I never bothered to look"... Instead - I just tried to think up something entertaining to write every day... I STUMBLED across this [that feature] just because I had to "get into" BLOGGER this evening to clean up some of the original posts I'd made (because many of you don't know I'd used the threads as "dumping grounds" for various images & things that I knew nobody would ever bother linking back to)...
Anyway... In that process, I was surprised (VERY SURPRISED) to find out some statistics...
Despite the meager beginnings (as described above)... This blog has had (as of this writing) 192,741 unique "page hits" over the past year... Last "month" the number was 19,955 and YESTERDAY alone was 1,028... (whatever that means)...
Before anyone gets impressed with that, let me say that the numbers have GONE DOWN since the summer... Ironically (or not)... The highest concentration of page hits was during the "extreme fear" of the bear market (in EARLY JULY of last year)...
In fact, the 2nd most "page views" was July 1st (on this thread)...
The 3rd most "page views" was on this thread...
With 7/13 and 7/14 right behind...
Ironically (or not)... The #1 most page views was this...
More distinct...(which I apologize that I'm failing to illustrate graphically - Amen Ra & Andy T could honor you all with these graphs because they have privy to these)... Is the fact that there has been a significant slide in "traffic" over the past month (since about December 2nd, OR, the EXACT day that I made this post)...
I seriously don't know what to make of that... (but if you look at a SPX "daily" chart - you may extrapolate whatever you wish at your own leisure - which I'm sure you're all SMART enough to do - tape "afficianados" that you all are - expressly)...
What "I see" (an expression which has become a dangerous revelation as of late), is that the popular indices have basically gone straight up (just count the number of "DAILY" green and red candles and extrapolate your own outcome based on your individual diagnostics of NORMAL market behavior)... Within the mathematical probability of assumption might be that there is a lot LESS interest in what appears to be a "bear blog" [even though that's NOT what CV professes to be]) during times that the market seems to be behaving in a SYNTHETIC "total conviction" environment... Or, I might just be a clueless DOLT who is imagining things & who farms, builds tilapia irrigation conduits, goes "off grid" energy, & exchanges nickels on an occasional basis...
I'm too dumb to know what SYNTHETIC means in this context (all I know is that it "feels" this way - and the populace seems to BEHAVE in that way - although only a FOOL would assign any CAUSALITY to any of those observations)... This, I've learned...
I'm an AUTHOR (exponentially - beyond my own, ot my FAMILY's survival needs)... I write (in this "exquisite" freedom on time)... I try to entertain (in the process)... "Entertainment" means that you must try to connect with what people are "feeling"... If they can't relate, they're not entertained... In this streaming digital information world, if you lose the attention of people for ONE SECOND, you might as well have lost them forever (I know that through 30 years of practicing my craft)... It's a MIRACLE that I've managed to entertain people for an entire year (on this silly blog)... Either that, or they just feel sorry for me (which is HIGHLY probable)...
"PATIENCE" is not a luxury one can afford (yet TIME is a critical element in everything)... For example... The SUPERBOWL will be played in Dallas, TX on February 6th... But some feel the need to start the discussion about it today... The only way to get through the interim is distraction... So it is with THE MARKETS (you know - those things that geniuses like Ritholtz & Krugman make their "lifes work" around)... Even though I can't POSSIBLY have better answers than those geniuses (with regards to THE MARKET)... As an author of a blog (my feeble attempt)... I've always felt that it was important to FILL THE EMPTY SPACE (a dynamic that I presume to be important... Simply by "human logic")...
In July (as evidenced above), there was NO EMPTY SPACE... Markets (the "protagonist", in this drama), were on the verge of crashing... People NEEDED TO KNOW WHY (but frankly, from my POV, the threads themselves [my threads] were not COMPELLING)...
Neither was, on September 1st, the thread (not even my Top 10 "funniest" IMO)... But what WAS compelling to me was... "WHY" were they behaving that way? (markets & interest "IN" them at that time)... What CAUSED the sudden change?... There may not be answer for that, but it doesn't negate the question itself... PEOPLE WANT AN EXPLANATION FOR THINGS THEY CAN'T COMPREHEND...
Nobody knows exactly HOW (to this day) the iceberg REALLY sunk the Titanic... They "think" they have clues, but their curiosity will always be on display... So on and so on...
To bring this "NEED" into the present [the curiosity]... I'm going to admit that I don't have any answers... In the past months, I've used "subterfuge" (I used the NFL and NCAA - and "in depth" summaries on how and why THE UNEXPECTED happens in football all the time)... If you'd made "side by side" NFL BETS with me... You'd have most likely outdistanced your S&P returns for 2010 by a large margin...
But again... This is a "tough crowd"... And I'm afraid to say that the "INEXPLICABLE" rise in the S&P, I can no longer explain...
I "tried" to explain it in the summer (when I started the "silver bitchez" & "nickles bitchez" MEME - which I've mostly continued straight on in "comments")...
But I was laughed at...
I made my best attempts to CONCEAL that it was my belief that "hot liquidity money" was finding its way into commodities (all ASSETS, but commodities as a "beta" - an expression I used many times since last August)...
HOT LIQUIDITY MONEY???? WTF???? What the hell is that?
I'm sure it has NOTHING TO DO with the Fed... POMO... "Perceptions" thereto... These are phenomenoa that surface all by themselves... (as with other soft and hard commodities)... The box of Cheerios on the shelf I see at the supermarket IS NOT smaller in dimension & higher in price... The price at the gas pump I see IS NOT $3.19 a gallon (it's $2.69 - like it was BEFORE the Fed announced QE2)...
I'm certainly just imagining things... (so my comments are WURTHLEZZ)...
And so... As an IMAGINER of things... & as an author of a BLOG that has "page hits" which are decreasing in size (in conjunction with an S&P which rises DAILY, with TOTAL CONVICTION, in an environment where the PUBLIC PERCEPTION [erroneous or not] is that THE FED has control)... Well... I'm going to say NO MAS...
NOT to the Fed... (NO... I'm not bowing down to THAT for God's sake)... But INSTEAD to everyone who insists that none of these CURIOUS levers have NOTHING TO DO with policymaking (OR "reaction" to policymaking, however NIMWITTED that may BE, or prove to be)...
Do whatever you want bitchez! Trade your tapes...
Instead, it's time for CV to TURN THE PAGE...
On a long and lonesome highway
East of Omaha
You can listen to the engine
Moanin' out his one note song
You can think about the woman
Or the girl you knew the night before...
But your thoughts will soon be wandering
The way they always do
When you're WRITIN' sixteen hours
And there's nothin' much to do
And you don't feel much like WRITIN',
You just wish the trip was through...
Here I am
On the road again
There I am
Up on the stage
Here I go
Playin' star again
There I go
Turn the page...
Out there in the spotlight
You're a million miles away
Every ounce of energy
You try to give away
As the sweat pours out your body
Like the music that you play
Later in the evening
As you lie awake in bed
With the echoes from the amplifiers
Ringin' in your head
You smoke the day's last cigarette,
Rememberin' what she said...
Here I am
On the road again
There I am
Up on the stage
Here I go
Playin' star again
There I go
TURN THE PAGE...
Amen Ra & Andy... PLEASE... Take it from here...
Thank you all for your PATRONAGE!... (This 'memorable' year... FOR ME)
Sincerely,
CV
Dude
ReplyDeleteKnow that you will be missed
First site everyday,
don't post much, because you say it for me.
Ah shit is all I gotta say.
Foghorn Longhorn
Thanks for all the fish, er, tilapia, CV.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the postings CV. Frankly I think Lefty would like Karen or Jennifer to take the reins.
ReplyDelete..You know how those blokes are.
I'm cursed. Blog shutdown follows me wherever I go.
ReplyDeletecv--
ReplyDeleteyou folding up the Tent?
AAIP
"NOT to the Fed... (NO... I'm not bowing down to THAT for God's sake)... But INSTEAD to everyone who insists that none of these CURIOUS levers have NOTHING TO DO with policymaking (OR "reaction" to policymaking, however NIMWITTED that may BE, or prove to be)..."
ReplyDeleteit appears I missed a debate somewhere . . .
also- sign of a top?
CV- tough doing a thread everyday (an entertaining one at that). . .surprised you plugged along as long as you did . . .
PPI WTE. Weekly claims WTE. Futures down but not by much. Figures.
ReplyDeleteUNADJUSTED DATA
ReplyDeleteThe advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 770,413 in the week ending Jan. 8, an increase of 191,686 from the previous week. There were 815,593 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent during the week ending Jan. 1, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,766,951, an increase of 351,439 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.6 percent and the volume was 6,013,891.
...before you go really long I see both Sand P and Moody's are giving a warning about the US credit rating this morning...irrelevant or not..
CV
ReplyDeleteSimplify.
"Aummmmm. Aummmmmm."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703583404576079311379009904.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us
ReplyDeleteS&P, Moody's Warn On U.S. Credit Rating .
Bruce
ReplyDeleteBloomberg didn't use "unexpected". I'm shocked!
Hey CV.
ReplyDeleteYou can always just post something when inspired...once a week or once every few weeks. There are plenty of folks who do that.
It has been a dull market for several weeks now for sure....just a slow grind higher.
I guarantee you there will be moments in the next few months that will be "post-worthy."
Bucky getting hammered again. Ouch.
ReplyDeleteSorry to hear you're leaving CV. Hope you'll continue to put up the occasional post at least. Understand posting everyday is a ton of work. I appreciate what you've done.
1.00046 +0.00596 (+0.60%)
ReplyDeletehttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_AUDUSD
which comes first, AUD$=U$D 1.20 ?
or,
AUD$=U$D 0.80 ?
ibid.
Amen:
ReplyDeleteI just feel that so much of 2010 is the result of Ben's hell or high water attack on interest rates. We've added something like 2 trillion to the national debt, and interest rates are slowly going up. This can only mean more of our tax money goes to service existing debt. That cannot be good "going forward"....and it won't be unexpected.
Moody's is right. No triple A rating lasts forever...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX
ReplyDeletenice Chart!
79.424 -0.607 (-0.78%)
CV, come on, i can't believe you would desert me after all we've been thru.. this market is whack as my sons would say.. Of course ZIRP and POMO and TARP, TAFTS, a host of other acronyms, and mark to make believe have buoyed asset prices. But it will only work till it doesn't.. as it has in housing.. though those stocks are inflated.. actual home prices are still falling.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.avc.com/a_vc/2011/01/when-they-are-throwing-money-at-you.html
ReplyDeleteThis is excellent: 7) Don't let this environment make you crazy. I understand the problem. We get calls and emails too. It is tempting to get caught up in the nutty market we are in. Focus on your business, your product, your team. Put all this stuff in perspective and don't let it take you mind off what matters. You need money to build a business but the money is a tool, the business is the mission. Focus on the mission.
Ugh, poor bucky. I can't watch anymore...
ReplyDeleteC,
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, thanks.
It is very hard to run a business day after day on your own. That includes blogs. Maybe we could institute a rotation so that everyone gets to have a DAY that is theirs, and would focus on a different topic.
For example, there could be a day for spooz, a day for fixed income, a day where we talk about Karen's clothing, etc...
How about we do oil/gas on a W (AT?), spooz on a M (you can write that one on Sunday night), FX on Tu (Ra?), gold/silver on F (Karen?), and I can do bonds on Th, etc... of course my posts will be short. Brevity is the soul of wit and all that...
"If the highest aim of a captain were to preserve his ship he would keep it in
ReplyDeleteport forever."
-- Thomas Aquinas
(1225-74) Italian philosopher and theologian
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Thomas.Aquinas.Quote.641E
"Honor, justice, and humanity, forbid us tamely to surrender that freedom which
we received from our gallant ancestors, and which our innocent posterity have a
right to receive from us."
-- Thomas Jefferson
(1743-1826), US Founding Father, drafted the Declaration of Independence, 3rd US President
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Thomas.Jefferson.Quote.8B36
Nice, so I say that your questions yesterday were "irrelevant", now the blog is named "Irrelevant Capital".
ReplyDeleteBen can speak for himself, but I'm sure he doesnt appreciate the jabs either.
But, like, whatever, man.
Grow up why dont you?
This is where the grownups play, and if you cant take two of your readers disagreeing with you about what you are writing about, then you just cant hack it anyway.
I actually appreciate what you have to say, but apparently you do not share that belief.
But way to make it all dramatic, and make it all about you. I hope you figure it out.
See ya,
-I
love to put ben an James Turk in a room together:
ReplyDelete“So what we’re seeing here is the money being printed by central banks around the world is going to useful and valuable tangible assets. These rocketing prices are a clear warning that the momentum toward hyperinflation is accelerating.”
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/13_James_Turk_-_Momentum_Toward_Hyperinflation_is_Accelerating.html
did i read that right or is he actually pushing hyperinflation? buy gold so you can get rich and pay of your dollar debts?
ReplyDeleteThere can be no hyperinflation when the Boomers are marching into retirement with an average of $49,000 in savings, 25% have nothing, and they are to be supported by a much smaller cohort who earn less than they do. Japan has already shown us the outcome.
ReplyDeleteChina and India need to prick this speculative bubble SOON, and they will. Their social structure cannot sustain the present rate of food inflation.
ForexLive Jamie Coleman
ReplyDeleteNew blog post: Philly Fed revises December data lower http://www.forexlive.com/159240/all/philly-fed-revises-december-data-lower
GM slipping, BAC has bearish engulfing, surely to be reversed by the close, i know.. LULU did not become my abandoned baby, but is seeing some profit taking.
ReplyDeletei hate it when the bots are running the market.. dow and spx in near perfect sync.. i just want to be here the day the real sellers overwhelm the synthetic buyers..
ReplyDelete30yr Bond 120.46875 -0.31250 -0.26
ReplyDelete10yr Note 120.46875 -0.09375 -0.08
nice Pricing~!
http://www.ino.com/
Karen
ReplyDeleteGood luck waiting on that day. They'll program the algos into overdrive to keep that from happening.
Btw, I like the concept of rotating authorship. On the model of the Island hedge fund idea from a while back...
ReplyDeleteIsland Capital. One person would need to be the Central Co-ordinator. Someone who can post every day. Maybe Ra can wear that for a while...?
ReplyDeleteWe can have one person just to report on POMOs...
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteI see 4 gap ups on BAC that haven't been filled...yet.
The chatter on bank earnings is the JP Morgue are drawing down reserves to goose the EPS b/c revenues are weak on slower fixed income trading in Q4. Expect more of the same from Mordant Scamley and the Goldman Sack. As for Shitti, who the hell knows what to make of that Govt-owned Ponzi? Then there is Smells Fargone and Bank of Bananamerica. We love them all....
ReplyDeletelet's close the gap at 12 from Dec pls.
ReplyDeleteEarnings don't matter, it is SO all about the bonii:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/traders-smaller-bonuses-still-top-pay-for-brain-surgeons-4-star-generals.html
Lefty,
ReplyDeleteI think the hyperinflation thingy is not going to happen either. Just the way I see the numbers.
Amazing Statistic and Why Those who Use History or Mean Reversion are Being Smashed by the Bernanke Put
ReplyDeleteAccording to Sentimentrader.com, the S&P 500 has now gone 92 days without closing below its 50-day moving average. That has only happened 17 times since 1928. But what is really amazing is that over the past 30 days, we haven't closed below the 10-day moving average even once. That has never happened in the last 82 years of market history.
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/01/amazing-statistic-and-why-those-who-use.html
It can't happen. The survival of the Boomer generation depends on it. Catfood City, Zombie Suburbs, Back to The Land, Urban Decay and Loss of Civic Order if they don't keep the whole bloody thing afloat in the approved Japanese manner.
ReplyDelete2s30s is now close to 400 bps and at record wides since 1977:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/treasuries-little-changed-after-initial-jobless-benefits-claims-increase.html
We are getting very close to a buy signal at the long end.
Of course, that would be a MEAN REVERSION call....
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/ATampT-to-take-27-billion-apf-1179667330.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
ReplyDeleteAT&T Inc. plans to take a pre-tax charge of $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter because of a change in how it accounts for gains and losses for pensions and other retirement benefits.
MRK is a falling knife if anyone wants to JBTFD.
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703583404576079311379009904.html
ReplyDeleteTwo leading credit rating agencies on Thursday cautioned the U.S. on its credit rating, expressing concern over a deteriorating fiscal situation that they say needs correction.
Moody's Investors Service said in a report Thursday that the U.S. will need to reverse an upward trajectory in the debt ratios to support its triple-A rating
10:51AM EST: 28.01 -0.03 (0.11%)
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=T&ql=1
tis, but a roundin' error..
MRK... the JOY of owning big pharma, or biotech. Luckily we own it from March 2009 levels....
ReplyDeleteFalling knife rule #1: Let JOHN E sell, then nibble and buy on the 2nd/3rd day. It worked for us with DF.
Note the failure of TLT to sell-off on the PPI number.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. Let's see how the auction goes at 1pm, but to our eyes, the Treasury market may now be sending us all the following message:
This economy is piss weak.
Jobs are not coming back.
Buy me.
Sell hyperinflationary and reflationary vehicles.
definitely worth a read from Mish:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/demand-for-money-us-2011-1
ugh.. i wish i hadn't looked at that IBM chart.. yesterday's candle was a killer.. MCD still ugly.. of course, BAC had the look of death before it miraculously came back to life.
ReplyDeleteafiatbnl:
ReplyDeleteYou are definitely smarter than you look.
(but when you start from that low a point,.....)
Jamie Coleman || January 13, 2011 at 16:32 GMT
ReplyDeleteThe Bernank will speak at a small business forum in Washington at 18:00 GMT and will take questions, from what I understand.
Traders expect Bernanke to remain unconcerned with inflation given the enormous levels of slack in the US economy. Commodity spikes just don’t float the Captain’s boat, as we saw in 2008 (when oil went close to $150).
Trichet stopped well short of hitting the panic button on inflation today but he did acknowledge that inflation would exceed the ECB’s target in the near-term. The mere mention of inflation as a threat by the ECB president help accelerate a furious EUR/USD rally which continues to this moment.
The juxtaposition of the at-least-moderately concerned Trichet with the hands off Bernanke is working against the dollar and will continue to do so in the near-term.
30yr Bond 120.81250 +0.03125 +0.03
ReplyDelete10yr Note 120.578125 +0.015625 +0.01
~120 looking good..
By the way, I like the island capital idea too
ReplyDelete...the way I feel when I read the national financial headlines..
We are going to see strength soon in mortgage-related equities, as the sharp move up in mtg rates has probably ended.
ReplyDeleteThe ADP number may have been the high water mark for yields, and the PPI today may be PEAK FLATION.
I have my doubts about the $110 crude calls, not sure that the EMs can take much more of this DGDF trade. Tightening is coming.
We are probably at a point now where you start to quietly buy Treasuries on economic "strengthy" data and sell risk assets.
looking at the FXE chart.. wild stuff.. who could have foreseen a leap like that one? were there any tells? the dollar was weak yesterday.. UUP was at support.. so the jobs number was the straw?
ReplyDeletehttp://ibankcoin.com/scott_bleier/2011/01/13/stockholm-syndrome/
ReplyDelete"...We are probably at a point now where you start to quietly buy Treasuries on economic "strengthy" data and sell risk assets..."
ReplyDeletew/ or w/o a Side Order of "Ye Olde Widdowe Maker" ?
Karen,
ReplyDeleteIt is still snowing here. Warm and cozy in the mine this morning (only one no show) but I took yesterday off.
stockholm, pavlov same difference.
ReplyDeleteI see possible DXY support at 78.72 (the 23.6% retrace).
ReplyDeleteBruce, i'm always checking your blog when you post a new avatar but i'm not seeing these last two.. bet those dogs of yours love the snow!
ReplyDeletewell, AR, we didn't break 79..
ReplyDeleteA must read:
ReplyDelete[Despite the bursting of a massive credit bubble,] everything just keeps perking along. What gives?
The answer, I believe, requires us to ask a Zen-like question along the lines of, "What is the sound of one hand clapping?" That question is, "If nobody recognizes a defaulted debt on their balance sheet, does it exist?"
Suppose, for the sake of argument, that there is a world in which banks are allowed by their regulators to pretend their default losses simply do not exist. And, even more outlandishly, some of these banks are allowed to sell heavily damaged loans to their central bank at nearly their full original price.
What does "deflation" mean in such a world? Not much, as it turns out.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-dont-worry-theyll-just-change-rules
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-melt-price-momentum-once-never-event
ReplyDelete"As part of the most recent observations on the boil up (melt up is so QE1) in the S&P, we find something quite interesting. A quick glance at the chart below shows the general market 45% climb since Bernanke's leak of QE2 in August, as well as the market's 10 day (purple line) and 50 day (green line) moving averages. As a point of reference the S&P has been above the 10 day average for 30 days straight, and above the 50 day average for 92 days straight. What is remarkable are some statistical findings as pertain to the average's movement with respect to the SMAs. Sentiment Trader points out that while as part of the recent surge in the S&P, the market has gone for "92 days without closing below its 50-day average, which has been matched only 17 other times since 1928." Where it gets scary, is that as pointed out, during this time market has not closed below the 10 DMA once during the past 30 days. And as Sentiment Trader notes, "this has never happened before, in 82 years of history." Congratulations to the Centrally Planned Socialist States of America: its Chairman has just made the Guinness Book of Manipulation Records."
K,
ReplyDeleteThe EURUSD jump was : a) a short squeeze b) buying on ECB fudging the Portugal and Spain bond sales c) dollar avoidance.
Bucky was due for a breather. Failure of gold to rally is telling.
Indeed, one can see an argument for once again unsheathing Ye Myghtye Wyddowmakker. We like Thursdays b/c China often amuses itself by having a crafty one on Fridays or over the weekend.
"Because of this, I routinely argue that what should happen won't happen, at least not right away, and that there's really no such thing as investing anymore, only speculating -- unless you are a big bank, favored by the Fed, with advance information."
ReplyDeleteCentrally Planned Socialist States of America.
ReplyDeleteNO.
Centrally Planned Corporate Fascist Republic of Bananamerica.
I did it for Timmy.
ReplyDeleteTry it again, Karen, I just posted some pics I took yesterday,so it should be working again.
ReplyDelete(It is just snow, I am sure people in Michigan would just yawn...but it is a very big deal here.)
here is the direct link to the chris martenson piece:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/dont-worry-theyll-just-change-rules/50568
Anon. @ 11:51
ReplyDeletepeeps are fixin' to learn, as usual, The Hard Way, that this ain't no 'Socialist Paradise' that's unfolding around them..
The parallels with Mussolini's (or Berlusconi's) Italy are quite interesting. Growth of paramilitary organizations (DHS), intimidation of opposition, identification of a scapegoat group (then Jews, recently it was Muslims, now maybe it will be illegals) total subjugation of independent media, the quiet coup and corporate takeover of government and academia, omnipresent bankers, increasing international tension. Japan has been a quasi-fascist corpocracy for some time and we are following the script to a T.
ReplyDeleteBruce.. so inspiring.. breathtaking! truly a winter wonderland.. love the house.. you should see mine.. hip roofs are my favorite.. how i wish you had an ocean for me! i need symmetry as well and lots of windows.. keep posting! you are a gifted photographer !!
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Neighboring-states-gleeful-apf-3910212420.html?x=0&.v=4
ReplyDeleteNeighboring states gleeful over Ill. tax increase
"Neighboring states gleefully plotted Wednesday to take advantage of what they consider a major economic blunder and lure business away from Illinois.
"It's like living next door to `The Simpsons' -- you know, the dysfunctional family down the block," Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said in an interview on Chicago's WLS-AM."
Funniest comments from the Martenson article:
ReplyDeleteby cossack55
on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:45
#873244
The answer, I believe, requires us to ask a zen-like question, "What is the sound of one hand clapping?"
Or
The answer, I believe, requires us to ask a zirp-like question,
"What is the sound of one hand stealing?"
by Armchair Bear
on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 11:49
#873258
ka-ching?
Yesterdays SPX high acting like an EMF field.
ReplyDelete"...The penny--and whether or not to retire the one-cent piece--has been the subject of intense debate over the past couple of years.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the group Citizens to Retire the Penny, the one-cent piece actually costs about four hours and $60 per person, annually.
Based on a study by the National Association of Convenience Stores and Walgreens, Citizens to Retire the Penny says using pennies wastes about two seconds on every cash transaction, translating to four hours per person per year. They estimate each person’s time at $15/hour, arriving at the conclusion that each person is losing $60 per year, at a cost to the nation of over $15 billion per annum.
Five years ago, it cost 0.98 cents to manufacture and distribute a penny. Now, thanks to rising zinc prices caused by increased industrial demand (pennies are 97.5% zinc), a single penny costs about 1.4 cents to make.
With the U.S. Mint pumping out 8.7 billion pennies last year, $87,000,000 worth of pennies actually cost $121,800,000 to produce.
Francois Velde, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and co-author of “The Big Problem of Small Change,” argues that the metal in money must be worth less than a coin’s face value. If not, people will hoard coins, melt them down and sell them for cash, which happened in the 1960s when quarters were made partly of silver.
Pennies are an annoyance to most people, as evidenced by the mounds of them in every “Take a penny, leave a penny” dishes on the counter of just about every store in America. About $10.5 billion, or $93.75 per household, is sitting idle, according to a survey by Coinstar..."
http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/dunkin-donuts-shop-stops-accepting/?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
This is spot on. Obama isn't a socialist.
ReplyDeleteHe is bot and paid for by the elite, which means he is the other thing. He is a f*s*i*t technocrat. Can't people see this? The reason he doesn't seem to care about everyday Americans is .... he DOESN'T.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/01/matt-stoller-understanding-the-strategy-of-the-democratic-power-class.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29
A brilliant take-down of hyperinflation nut jobs for Bruce:
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/no-such-thing-as-cost-push-inflation.html
China still exporting deflation by maintaining low wages and being a currency manipulator of the first order. We are retaliating by exporting inflation to the third world. This is warfare of a sort...
LB at 12:23.. i posted that article at 11:29.. and am now quite upset!
ReplyDeleteIf anyone can explain what happened in the Tsy market in the last hour, we would be interested to hear.... we were stopped out of our hedge.
ReplyDeleteSorry, you posted from business insider...
ReplyDeleteGreat minds think alike. I need pizza before this effing auction, wonder what little news gem was leaked about half an hour ago?
"I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate (the) grave evils (of capitalism), namely through the establishment of a socialist economy, accompanied by an educational system which would be oriented toward social goals. In such an economy, the means of production are owned by society itself and are utilized in a planned fashion. A planned economy, which adjusts production to the needs of the community, would distribute the work to be done among all those able to work and would guarantee a livelihood to every man, woman, and child. The education of the individual, in addition to promoting his own innate abilities, would attempt to develop in him a sense of responsibility for his fellow-men in place of the glorification of power and success in our present society."
ReplyDeleteAlbert Einstein, Why Socialism?, 1949
Even Einstein made errors. Cosmological constant and that sort of thing. I think Obama is a socialist of the type Einstein was thinking about, but the idea that you can "nuture" a sense of responsibility for your fellow man is the weak link in the idea that socialism will work. And an educational system oriented toward social goals? How's that work? Make people major in electrical engineering? Only allow the upper 50% to attend college?
..But yes, I think Obama's best defition is as a socialist. His inexperience before becoming elected has allowed his many shortcomings to surface.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteHe always looks at your ankles. Sometimes he is in such a swoon, he forgets to look at your articles.
If you watch what Obama has actually DONE in office, all you can see is an instrument of the corporate aristocracy and the military-industrial and health care-insurance complexes. He is no more a Socialist than Bush.
ReplyDeleteI agree his inexperience has rendered him impotent.
it is so interesting to me in retrospect that my younger son nailed obama as a socialist from the get go.. he would debate his father.. and literally say, do you not hear what he is saying?? we thot that the son didn't know what he was talking about since he had never worked or paid taxes.. he did have his nose in books and history tho! politics and history, his fav subjects.
ReplyDelete"He always looks at your ankles. Sometimes he is in such a swoon, he forgets to look at your articles."
ReplyDeleteAll of her articles are superb.
@ 12:37.. please don't compare anyone to Bush.. but agreed!!
ReplyDeleteyellow double-entandre card, bub.
ReplyDeleteflattery only digs you deeper : P
ReplyDeletehead over to bruce's and help out with his driveway! lol
This is not Socialism.
ReplyDeleteI believe people will see the Mussolini parallels more easily in time. Just wait until there is actual social protest in the US. The response to real third party dissent (i.e from the left, not the loony right Tea Party) will be frightening and totally ruthless. We are already a Police State.
i think they are stealing my recoveryless recovery theme: (Housing Wire)
ReplyDeleteAn economic recovery with jobs and housing left behind http://goo.gl/fb/Z44VZ
Vanguard cancels three Muni Bond ETFs: http://tinyurl.com/5rqoalf
ReplyDeleteGuess they figured they couldn't rip off anyone now that outflows are still ongoing.
well, if TBT doesn't get bot at 37 (straight edge support) i'd say FIATBNL's theory will play out.
ReplyDeleteAR, everyone is blaming MW for that..
ReplyDeleteI am waiting for people to step up and organize meaningful opposition. Krugman is acting like Baghdad Bob, he is a propaganda shill.
ReplyDeleteSimon Johnson, Joe Stiglitz and Jeff Sachs have a clue, but most intellectuals are completely mired in the meaningless culture wars between the two "parties" of Bananamerica.
Fullcarry Ed Bradford
ReplyDeleteShort squeeze before long bond auction. Ultras up 29tks. WIs yield 4.475.
They never introduce ETFs at the bottom...
ReplyDeleteHYG/JNK not selling off. I have no idea what is going on in bonds today. Let me know when you have figured it out.
It could be our FI desk just having fun.
ReplyDeleteYou know. The FUN.
AFIA2BNL
ReplyDeleteIf you're confused then I'm staying far away from bonds.
Krugman amazes me. Honestly. It is as though he never expected opposing viewpoints to his thoughts about big government and spending. It is as though he is still thinking of the theoretical way that "his" Keynesianism should work, rather than the practical manner of unbalanced budgets year after year that actually occur. He doesn't seem to me to see the real life side of things.
ReplyDelete"Treasury yields dropped after the December employment report came in weaker than expected. That drove investors to buy safer Treasury bonds, driving up prices and lowering the yields. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note."
ReplyDeletewhat was POMOs target today and which part is confusing..
If you're confused then I'm staying away from blondes.
ReplyDelete..wait a minute.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/top-three-investment-letters-had-age-in-common-2011-01-13?link=kiosk
ReplyDeleteFunny thing: The top three performers for 2010 were all edited by octogenarians. But will it last?
I don't like invisible catalysts and I am smelling one. If the bond market knows something, then it is only a matter of time before we see the equity market take a little sniff of reality....
ReplyDeleteWonder what interesting announcement is coming after the bell?
EUR-USD 1.3364 +0.0233 +1.77%
ReplyDeleteUSD-JPY 82.6965 -0.3035 -0.37%
GBP-USD 1.5872 +0.0106 +0.68%
I can't reconcile this with the action in Treasuries, really.... look at the size of that move in the Euro. Surely unsustainable?
BTW, the BERNANK is speaking at 1pm. Great timing !!!
ReplyDeleteI don't think this was a particularly big move in tbt or tlt.. that said, something has to give and the tbt:tlt wedge is moving into the tip of the triangle..
ReplyDeleteBid/Cover 2.67
ReplyDeleteCoupon Rate 4.250%
Total Amount $13 B
Yield Awarded 4.515%
A 4-5 bp tail on the auction. BTC was typical. I am seriously thinking of piling into Treasuries and shorting the piss out of small cap equities. Let's see where the market closes.
Extreme Upside calls bought on $VIX watch Sonar Report http://t.co/sZASwrD
ReplyDeleteI don't like this market. Will be trimming risk in credit today and adding a few Treasuries. There are some things happening that I do not like the look of today. Can someone cough up an earnings timetable? Something bad is coming, I am absolutely convinced of it.
ReplyDeletewhat is the yield on the really really short term ts? i will check bloomberg.
ReplyDelete.14 and .17.. you think the curve is too steep??
ReplyDeletenot quite a police state yet or this guy would just be put to death tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/tucson-shooting-defense-faces-choices-seen-in-oklahoma-city-bomber-s-case.html
Sorry to see ya go CV, hope the blog stays around and you make a guest appearance once in a while...so at least I can post the "18" numbers, (not that they mean anything)
ReplyDelete1314 <-- next leg up?
1296
...1287...50%
1278
1260 <-- bears in charge!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/13-billion-30-year-auction-closes-4515-267-bid-cover
ReplyDeleteI think 2s30s is unbelievably steep. Given that they are committed to nailing the front end to the floor, the only thing left to give is for the long end to come in....
ReplyDelete$wlsh made a new high today.. broadest measure of the economy? an effing joke and we all know it. so now what..
ReplyDeleteAlso PDs have 49.9% of this auction. They will not be too thrilled about making losses on all that paper, so this really would be a great time for the Street to dump equities and make a profit on those brand-new Ts acquired at 4.52%.
ReplyDeleteThink like the weasel....
Scott Bleier
ReplyDelete$$ After shipping jobs overseas for 3 decades, the FED is going to give banks free money until they all come back..
a must watch i am sure: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/01/videos-simon-johnson-throws-his-hands.html
ReplyDelete"The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time."
TLT losing a full point from today's high?
ReplyDeleteTBT was a BTD again?
GLD to go green again as it did yesterday?
PDs to lose money on the bond purchases?
ReplyDeleteFXC to make a new 52 week high??
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gallup.com/poll/145562/Consumer-Spending-Down-Sharply-Early-January.aspx
ReplyDeletethat is big news!!
JPM 7:10 ET tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteA five dollar range in the SPX. My head feels like it's about to explode.
ReplyDeletehttp://posterous.fusioniqrank.com/petrobras-pbr-bottoming-and-turning-up
ReplyDeletenot today, however, PBR is down over 2%
Cvienne – Although I do not adhere to all you have to say, I have always enjoyed your insight and find your take on life interesting. As you know life if full of tough decisions and getting up every morning to post a blog to anonymous people can not be an easy task, but you have handled that with perseverance and style, my hat is off to you man.
ReplyDeleteI personally thank you for taking a year out of your life to share your unique viewpoints and experiences with us and the world and although part of me is sad to see life taking you in a different direction, I must remember life is what it is and we have to go with the flow, so I sincerely wish you the best of luck as you make certain changes in your life.
If I may make a suggestion and elaborate a little on what Andy T pointed out at 9:27, putting up a weekly blog may not be a bad thing. You have many talented and smart people who’s insight I have learned a lot from, perhaps some of them may also like to contribute on a regular basis. I will not name them all, but Karen finds very usuful links, AmenRa-Andy and Ben have technical skill out the wazzu, BinT and Leftback offer very skilled and useful insight (I know I am leaving several people out, it is not meant as a slight so forgive me).
Not everybody belongs in the same group, but given the skill level of the internet family that has been built here (Starting at AT’s ) it will be somewhat sad to see them disbanded, so to elaborate on Andy’s earlier suggestion; Perhaps others would like to share their posts on a regular basis and when (Who the hell knows how long that will be) the markets turn Bearish again or when (IMHO-A good chance) when the economy starts to severly slip again, you can step in and give us your tips and points of view.
Anyway, I wish you the best of luck and again thank you for taking the time over the last year to make the daily sacrifices on posting for us.
James (Mangy Mutt)
manic day, if you ask me. manic for the new normal, that is.
ReplyDeleteKaren at 1:42:
ReplyDeleteThere have been a number of "unnoticed" interviews of regular peeps who admitted they wanted to spend a little at Christmas for the family, but once Xmas was over they planned to continue to pay down debt.
Not covered much on CNBC yet......
stockconsultant.com
ReplyDeleteSPX
3 Day Chart Alert analyzes over 120 three day candlestick patterns!
3 DAY CHART ALERT 10, Strong bullish 3 day chart pattern.
BREAKOUT CONFIRMED breakout above 1281.89, no resistance in area just above.
Type: Continuation breakout from single resistance.
Target: 1325, 3.1% Stop: 1271.34, Loss: 1%, Profit/Loss ratio: 3.1 : 1 - Excellent
Breakouts are an exception to the normal indicators which can at the same time indicate bearishness.
BREAKDOWN None.
someone please check out XOM and tell me we aren't in need of a correction..
ReplyDeleteanyone buying this dip? you know these flatline hours always lead to a burst up in the last hour.. i have seen it time and time again..
ReplyDeleteoops never mind the xom chart.. it is identical to the spx chart over the last 3 months.. what was i thinking! dumb me. how could i forget the ONE TRADE..
ReplyDeletehttp://opinion.financialpost.com/category/wealthy-boomer/
ReplyDeleteJanuary 11, 2011 – 2:51 pm
Paying down debt is the number one priority for Canadians, with the percentage citing this at a five-year high, a Manulife poll released today finds.
Paring back consumer credit was cited by 29% of 1,000 adults polled by Research House (Environics) in December, up from a low of 20% in 2008. The second priority of paying down a mortgage was cited by 14%, the same as last year but up from 11% in 2009. Third priority is saving for retirement: at 13%, this was up from 11% last year.
A similar survey from CIBC last week came to similar conclusions: see Finally we get it.
i bet selling would beget selling if it were ever to commence.. too many people would want to protect the profits made on these artificially inflated stock prices.. if the segue in MCD is any example.
ReplyDeleteanother MSM article to bring Johnny into the market:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/111822/if-you-cant-join-em-beat-em?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Agweed.
ReplyDeleteFwash Cwash Part DEUW.
Retail sales, "ronsumer ronfidence" (ROR) and JP Morgue tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThings that make you go... hmmm
well, we are back to Traders-Anonymous.. obviously i can still be counted on to post something even tho some people don't read my posts..
ReplyDeleteKaren - If I knew how to read I would read your posts.
ReplyDeleteFWIW - your posts are one of the reasons I visit this site, but I only read every other post.
Mutt
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/%22hard-to-justify%22-treasury-'locked-in'-loss-on-gm's-ipo-cop-chair-decla-535809.html
ReplyDeleteMutt,
ReplyDeleteThat's ok...we have people here who are avatar peepers..and we know who resembles that remark...
Crumbs... are we at a short-term top?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/cupcake-capitalism-offers-hope-for-new-bubble-commentary-by-jonathan-weil.html
Last time the JP Morgue reported, the XLF took a 4-5% dive over the next two trading days. Just sayin'...
ReplyDeleteLOL.. that cupcake article reminded me to check the price of KKD.. PE over 50! (like lulu) not only at 6.79/share.. a far cry from the hey dey just under $50..
ReplyDeletescary last line in Weil's piece.. All we have to do is believe.
ReplyDeleteCake shop trends in NYC have a half life of 6 months. Everyone just wants to effing start a dog walking biz and then IPO it so they can retire.
ReplyDeleteThis is the Ponzification of an entire economy, and the very backbone of the Recoveryless Recovery, cupcake !
That cat is out of the bag.. JBTFD: Goldman Says S&P 500 to Gain 18% http://bit.ly/gAXMns
ReplyDeleteI took a leg into high duration today. Yields were below my strike zone, but (1) it is the first leg in and (2) trading has been erratic in the long bond today and, given my outlook, my nerves pushed me into the trade.
ReplyDeleteAnd what's all this about quitting the blog? Are we going to be moving blogs once per year?
AmenRa: Are you ready to switch the colors on your blog?
http://www.businessinsider.com/is-this-why-lloyd-blankfein-didnt-bother-pitching-aig-this-morning-2011-1
ReplyDeleterather big down day for silver i would say..
ReplyDeleteooh.. and that little miner of mine i cashed out for pitiful gains in the 3s in now 2.84..
This may have ramifications:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/basel-imposes-capital-rules-for-debt-securities-to-aid-banks-during-crisis.html
wild stuff: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GLAST/news/fermi-thunderstorms.html
ReplyDeleteSold some HYG. Bot a small amount of TLT.
ReplyDeleteTrimmed from 22% to 18% HYG.
http://www.businessinsider.com/signs-of-a-bubble-2011-1
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteThe day you decided to stop blogging is the day the market decided to break down. Priceless.
Thats a fakedown, not a breakdown.
ReplyDeleteThey aren't JBTFD yet.
ReplyDeleteYou realize that no JOHNNYS watch the market any more? It just goes up every day. So no reason to watch, or trade. This is USUALLY the time when they take it down. Just a few percent...
The machine is in place, Lloyd, directly beneath the 401k stash.
ReplyDeleteWe are ready to activate the suction.
Some Rasta
ReplyDeleteSince it didn't test the daily 3LB mid I'm agreeing with you.
Geithner warns of future bailouts: http://tinyurl.com/63z6d99
ReplyDeleteGovernment ‘may have to do exceptional things again,’ Treasury secretary says
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned that the U.S. government may have to bail out major financial institutions again if there’s a crisis as big as the last one, according to a report released Thursday by a group overseeing the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
“We may have to do exceptional things again if we face a shock that large,” Geithner told the Office of the Special Inspector General for TARP in December.
Here we go again...
OK, we have de-risked quite a bit today. We could be wrong but there are some warning signals out there. Like the economy, and the small business environment, and the job market. It stinks...
ReplyDeleteWe were HYG 22, TIP 6, LQD 3, [TBT 16]. (Bonds = 13%)
We are now HYG 18, TIP 6, LQD 3, AGG 5, TLT 2. (Bonds = 34%)
We were 15% long divvys, no hedge. (Equities = 15%)
We are going to be fully hedged overnight, 15%, no more.
Lefty,
ReplyDeleteYour moves today are interesting...obviously your gut feels that rates are coming down.
I have been holding cash and bought a secondary CD at Schwab Monday that was up for only about 15 minutes...only came on it by accident.
There are still plenty of people buying relatively riskless instruments.
1419.0 +4.0 +0.28 (Soybeanage)
ReplyDelete30yr Bond 121.34375 +0.56250 +0.47
10yr Note 121.109375 +0.546875 +0.45
NY Gold 1377.4 -8.4 -0.61
NY Silver 28.810 -0.735 -2.48
Bonds looking Good..
http://www.ino.com/
The Top 20 Concert Tours ranks artists by average box office gross per city and includes the average ticket price for shows in North America. The previous week's ranking is in parentheses. The list is based on data provided to the trade publication Pollstar by concert promoters and venue managers.
TOP 20 CONCERT TOURS
1. (1) Roger Waters; $2,477,559; $125.71.
2. (2) Dave Matthews Band; $1,580,748; $72.02.
3. (3) Eagles; $1,182,275; $98.39.
4. (4) Usher; $991,952; $73.83.
5. (5) Michael Buble; $893,445; $84.35.
6. (6) Shakira; $885,613; $82.29.
7. (7) Justin Bieber; $695,698; $52.65.
8. (New) Nickelback; $607,105; $64.14.
9. (8) Brad Paisley; $576,704; $48.02.
10. (9) Trans-Siberian Orchestra; $567,865; $46.14.
11. (10) Rascal Flatts; $553,479; $41.25.
12. (11) Muse; $546,115; $48.66.
13. (12) Andre Rieu; $546,104; $77.16.
14. (14) Furthur; $447,180; $52.35.
15. (16) Carrie Underwood; $416,845; $49.27.
16. (15) Rain - A Tribute To The Beatles; $414,245; $80.98.
17. (17) Gorillaz; $367,274; $73.79.
18. (18) Dane Cook; $273,656; $53.49.
19. (19) So You Think You Can Dance; $243,031; $52.06.
20. (New) Jeff Dunham; $232,024; $46.59.
For free upcoming tour information, go to http://www.pollstar.com
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897578768067710
AAIP
Market is behaving oddly.
ReplyDeleteSPY completely diverged from EURJPY. WTF? Surely this means that major leveraged players are absent from the long side and waiting to enter on the dark side....?
Precious metals down on a weak dollar and miners are the weakest segment of the equity market.
This is the most bearish thing I have seen in a long while.
Remember that "buy the rumor, sell the news" is a bull market phenomenon and we are in a min-bull market within a bear. Tomorrow we get a TBTF bank earnings report after they have run up remarkably.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile we know they are technically insolvent..... so the fundamentals are not that good. Tomorrow that might matter.
We are not even a net bear here. But we are feeling remarkably cautious, because no-one else is, and because most bears have now capitulated. There are no shorts, even in stocks that are total dogshit priced for perfection - so if we see selling, it might be good for a 2-3% dump at least.
BinT - You just bought a secondary CD at Swabb, huh...
ReplyDeleteBuy one for me too...Hmmmm $100,000 should do it, I will pay you back on payments HONEST
mangy mutt
3-day weekend ahead, so why not SUCK DOWN some profits using our EXTENDED TENTACLES and NOURISH THE SQUID on the LIFEBLOOD of the ECONOMY until we are once again BLOATED with BONII.
ReplyDeleteTICK low was -1019 at 2:15 ET. It hasn't made a lower reading even though new lows were made.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how the "Bank CD"/Silver-Chart is looking..(?)..
ReplyDelete'relatively Riskless' -- Wow! how is that defined?
AAIP
Mutt:
ReplyDeleteI did the risky stuff when I was younger. I am just mellowing out now...assuming I don't freeze here in the new north...
BinT - If your winter weather keeps up you might just concider trading your puppies in for some sled dogs.
ReplyDeleteDid risky stuff - What are you saying fronting a mangy mutt $100,000 for a CD would be risky?
Oh you mean you are going with safer market bets.
Mutt
We sold some DF and some NZT. Longs are down to about 14% now. HY down to 16% from 22%. Nothing big here. Just a trim.....
ReplyDeleteThe last 25 minutes of the SPX plus TICK movement after the bell has me a little worried about being short. Since it's already known that JPM is using reserves to pad their EPS then their earnings announcement shouldn't cause too much pain.
ReplyDeleteI suspect that investors will look past the padded EPS and focus on the top line for the banks. It is much less easy to game than earnings.
ReplyDeleteWe also did not get short, but that was for TECHNICAL reasons. [Lack of connectivity]. Anyway we have ample cash to get short tomorrow, or if need be, to JBTFD....
I am wearing a pad tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteIt's his time of the quarter.
ReplyDeleteKeep the device hidden, Giles.
ReplyDeleteWait until the last moment.
Of course, Lloyd. It is set to TURBO SUCK.
ReplyDeleteOn your command, obviously....
AmenRa - I hear you there, I missed the market ramp up of last year and feel if the right circumstance arise this thing could turn on a dime.
ReplyDeleteBut there are so many big boys wanting the market to continue up and the moment still seems to be there that at this point it doesn't make sense to short the market - Especially when we know JPM is going to give us great numbers. Even if those numbers are based on a lie.
I went long yesterday after the market already made it's jump, I picked up a couple pennies and today's market action wiped those out, but I am staying long.
FWIW - I am too scared to go short right now, but also too worried to go long.
Best of luck to you.
Mutt
Mutt
ReplyDeleteI'm ready to pull the trigger to go short but the market keeps giving me cheap ammo and I'm worried about a backfire.
Good analogy.
ReplyDeleteMutt
The Bond Report 1.13.11
ReplyDeleteCorpies: LQD 0.43%; JNK -0.10%; HYG -0.02%
Govies: TLT 0.90%; IEI 0.39%; TIP 0.31%; AGG 0.36%;
Munis: IQI -0.35; MUB -1.15
Mortgages: MBB 0.12
Hedgies: TBT -1.62%
weird day all around...wassup with TLT/UUP/GLD/WTF? Not doing the usual dance like they're supposed to...What could it mean?
ReplyDeleteAwww...Coinstar just warned. Ain't that a shame?
ReplyDeleteI think the discussion here is suffering from a malady my trading is all too familiar with (pardon the dangling preposition) -- a conflict of timeframes. There is merit to seeing both the forest and the individual trees. It is easy to forget the big picture (well, maybe not here will all the fun BR bashing) just as it is easy to want to short the crap out of things like NFLX only to see them rocket to the moon. I hope we can reconcile our collective differences. Having lurked on many blogs, this is a special place. In other news, my kid peed his pants as school today. Lucky me.
The continued weakness in munis may have contributed to the strength in the US Treasury market today, despite a not very terrific auction of 30y. IG was bid ahead of HY today and the whole day had a "risk off" feel to it.
ReplyDeleteThe failure of TLT to sell off after noon today was striking. A break of the muni market to new lows might well create an increased aversion to risk in the US credit market.
We have been trimming risk in credit. HYG down from 22% to 18%. TIP from 15 to 6%. TLT from 0 to 2%. AGG from 0 to 5%. Hedges are off in bonds. Fixed income up from 31% (hedged) to 34% (unhedged) into the 3 day weekend.
In other news, my kid peed his pants as school today.
ReplyDeletePerhaps he watched those videos of the BEN BERNANK with the two bears discussing THE QUANTITATIVE EASING. Has that effect on me.
Correlation breakdowns usually occur close to market turns or near to regime change in FX (e.g. change in carry currency).
ReplyDeleteToday was odd. No doubt about it.
Coinstar resumed trading -- down $18 bucks. Whoops! That might make me pee my pants if I were long.
ReplyDeleteAgree that it had to feel of risk off, except that Bucky seems to have taken a blow to the head. From your report bonds do look like risk off. Very intewesting.
ReplyDelete"had THE feel of risk..."
ReplyDeleteBucky, GLD, SLV and GDX all pantsed today.
ReplyDeleteDon't see that very often.
you know, something just dawned on me..
ReplyDeletethe Pair Trade Long LULU / Short TLB(as ex.)
would have been, exceptionally, in keeping with 'Socionomics'...
LSS: the entry-level Middle Manager/Office "chippy" du Jour Demand is waay Down, and, in the meantime, former applicants, therefore, have taken to that 'Gear' for "Dailywear"--whether 'on their way to the Gym..', or not..
that was a major miss..
it pays to Snort 'exhaust fumes'..
AAIP @ 17:14
ReplyDeleteCoinstar blowing up....that's funny...
ReplyDeleteand sort of predictable....
Jenniffer - I know how you feel about your child peeing their pants.
ReplyDeleteMy wife gets so upset with me when we are at the supermarket and I pee mine :(
But at least I feel all warm and fuzzy for a while.
Mutt
Thanks for the laugh Mutt!
ReplyDelete