Besides all the hustle and bustle, an average everyday American must always be glancing sideways at what might be happening inside the capital beltway, what's going on on Wall Street, or even Hollywood or North Korea for that matter... Gotta make sure the kids lunches are packed, that they have a ride home from soccer practice, and that they're up to date with the latest gadget... And of course, the day wouldn't even be able to BEGIN without knowing what TWSWB's opinion on things were...
To give you an example of this, I'm guessing this is how a typical American like Antoine Dodson started his day...
1:30 AM - Go outside to get a glimpse of lunar eclipse
2:00 AM - Go back to bed
5:00 AM - Wake up and check commodity futures
6:00 AM - Extra cup of coffee (bean futures were down .027%)
7:00 AM - Catch SQUAWK BOX - WSJ - & TWSWB
7:30 AM - Light a candle at the altar of Ben Bernanke in thanks that his S&P portfolio is in tact
8:00 AM - Put in a call to Billy Ray Valentine at Duke & Duke to check copper prices
8:30 AM - Check the plumbing at Lincoln Park projects to make sure none of the copper piping was ripped out overnight
9:00 AM - Have his chauffeur go to the store and buy another case of catfood for grandma (& stocking stuffers)
9:15 AM - Hide the women & children
9:30 AM - New York Markets open, make sure his TD Ameritrade browser was open and set with all the parameters ready to "fire off the trade" (as soon as the 80-20 stochastic cross criteria was met)
Rest of day - Backtest - Backtest -Backtest
5:30 - Catch Fast Money (so they can re-affirm to him that traders JBTFD today because of the easing of tensions on the Korean Peninsula - even though they never actually SOLD on that news)
Antoine is a busy guy... But I'm sure he'll still find time to come to your holiday party if you invite him... He's already paid off Clarence Beeks to get a copy of the crop report into his hands before the holiday recess resumes...
Merry New Year!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Food-stamp-use-spikes-One-in-cnnm-2280036884.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
ReplyDelete"The use of food stamps has increased dramatically in the U.S., as the federal government ramps up basic assistance to meet the demands of an increasingly desperate population.
The number of food stamp recipients increased 16% over last year. This means that 14% of the population is now living on food stamps. That's about 43 million people, or about one out of every seven Americans.
In some states, like Tennessee, Mississippi, New Mexico and Oregon, one in five people are receiving food stamps. Washington, D.C. leads the nation, with 21.5% of the population on food stamps."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/20/AR2010122006658.html
ReplyDeleteRecession forces rise in low-wage families, report says
"The share of working families earning less than double the official poverty threshold - $43,512 for a family of four - increased from 28 to 30 percent between 2007 and 2009, according to a report released Tuesday by the Working Families Project, a nonprofit group that advocates on behalf of the working poor."
morning! thanks CV.. i've been up since 2:45, running the sump pump.. you cannot believe the rain here.. we must be setting every known record.
ReplyDeleteAR, thanks for the wrap.. that $crb is something else.. been going the opposite of $ssec, $hsi, ewz..oh, speaking of BRIC.. only R (rsx) has been up, and looks toppy now..
That Antoine Dodson clip was over the top!
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteOn YOUR "to do" list then... must be...
Get a house higher up on the hill :-)
How many HP's is your sump?
I mean... If it's really that bad, you just need more HP's doing the work... I'd consider going over to Home Depot and just buying an extra little portable one that has a horsepower or three to add to your pumping capacity (hope LB doesn't see this)...
But by the time you do that, the rains will have probably stopped...
In any case... Look on the bright side... You learn things...
CV always says... You never know how UNPREPARED (or underprepared) you are until you find yourself UNPREPARED...
CV.. i have a very deep sump tank with 2 pumps.. each pump is 2 hp, one pump is sitting here on the floor, broken.. the floats in the tank don't work either so it no longer runs on automatic.. the soil here is clay.. the slab my house sits on is lower than the street level by at least 2 feet.. there are drainage spots thru out the lot and all the roof water runs into the tank... I attempted to get this fixed over a month ago but wasn't a squeaky enuf wheel.
ReplyDeleteWell obviously the solution is to have it fixed (but it appears that you tried)...
ReplyDeleteStill - Just to avoid a situation like that in the future, you ought to just get a little 2HP portable sump at Home Depot to have in emergency situations...
The good thing about that would be that you could put it to use in other ways as well... I actually have several of these rigged into 96 gallon water collection trash cans (that I use for irrigation [watering plants & flowers])...
It's not really an issue at the farm (because I have well water - but still - I like to utilize rainwater as much as possible - I believe every conserved drop is valuable)...
In MD it's ESSENTIAL... Otherwise, I'm paying city water to irrigate, and that's not only not feasible, it's wasteful...
The growing season (and rainfall), here is quite different than there though... There are generally scorchingly hot and drought conditions that go on for periods during the summer... But those are broken up by single days of thunderstorms that bring a lot of rain... So the trick is to CATCH the rain, and use it when it is dry... I typically use at least 10,000 gallons during a summer (and that's just for small time stuff)...
In California, since it doesn't rain for such long periods, I can't see how containers used in that way would help much...
Anyway, I'm just explaining the PORTABLE SUMP usage... I pump the water out to where it needs to get via conduitsthat I buried in the ground...
RA,
ReplyDeletebottom thread, my observation on the Bespoke "forecasts"
1. They are basically the same as 2010 the only difference being that now only one is bearish stocks, and clearly that one has a bearish bias toward everything, so I'm not even sure it should be considered.
2. Equity (stocks) is/are nothing more than levered credit so yes normally HY and stocks are pretty tight and that makes sense in other ways as well, here's the visual:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/SuURWXB4bqI/AAAAAAAAIPo/FJiBrV6wptM/s1600-h/spbb.png
My 96 gallon trash cans are "daisy chained" together... I drilled holes in the top and they just spill over into each other...
ReplyDeleteObviously, a better solution would be to have a huge water tank, but those are costly, and I like the flexibility of the trash cans... I can re-configure any way I want (and even use them for other purposes)... Sometimes - I just use them to dump the fish in when the aquariums need to be cleaned... :-)
@ben22
ReplyDeleteBo Jacksons vs. Rampage Jacksons...
I know man, I'm pumped.
ReplyDeleteI might go buy a helmet to wear this weekend.
I wonder how many folks over time have been inside a burning house and instead of trying to put the fire out they screamed and argued over what caused the fire
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKhN0gh0kjY
CV.. i know all about the portable pumps.. have used them.. when both my pumps were working.. i felt i had a back up.. obviously i do not at the moment.. Also, I have looked into and discussed a way to save the water in the tanks.. it would be costly to put in another tank up front.. but over the years pay off.. tomorrow I am submitting a new front landscape plan to my association.. i want to take out most of the lawn and put in 3 lines of olive trees.. just mulch on top.. that would cut my watering bill to near nothing, and give me some privacy.. i am so sick of that wasteful lawn.
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteYou might enjoy this video, not sure if you know this guys background but I'd suggest you look into it if not, he's got serious skills:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C33IOcb2UM&NR=1
@karen
ReplyDeleteSounds like pretty much what I would do if I was working with your climate & landscape...
Maybe you put in some Agave plants (and brew your own tequila (but a good agave plant can take up to 50 years to start really producing)...
A couple of years ago (when "corn based ethanol" was the solution by all the "greenie liberals" to solve global warming)... I was tearing my hair out MORE than I even do now with the "coal fired VOLTS"...
Mexican farmers were digging up mature agave plantations because the corn crop was more profitable...
Result? Tequila was getting scarce...
Good thing somebody (not named Al Gore) came to their senses...
@ben22
ReplyDeleteMy only problem with that is I'm not into commercial ideas...
In many ways, it goes AGAINST the concept... Instead, I believe in the "every man for himself", and small co-op type arrangements...
You can get away with as little as an acre to manage for yourself... You'd have more fruits and veggies than even 3-5 people could consume... The rest you use for livestock... A half dozen hens, some fish, and a milk cow or goat...
I'm oversimplyfying it, but in truth, that's all you need...
Large land tracts simple invite the idea that you'll eventually get TAXED heavily on your land...
If I had more acres, I'd want them to be wooded, have river or lake frontage, and hopefully have some interesting rock or mineral deposits...
You only really need an acre for farming... Let your neighbors take care of the larger stuff (which requires a heavy investment in machinery, fuel, and even disease control, if you're raising herds)...
more on brazil: Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The first investigation into Brazil’s asset-backed securities industry, rising consumer delinquencies and the biggest rout of a bank stock in more than a decade are opening cracks in the country’s financial system...
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3SlTISInpzc
RE tax revenue on decline.. chart of the day:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hedgeye.com/unlocked_ideas/10910
GOOG
ReplyDeleteJust can't leave $600 alone...
DOW 36,000 or bust!
$copper is out of control..
ReplyDelete@karen (9:49)
ReplyDeleteNickles :-)
I might need to get some of those refractory bricks sooner than anticipated...
yesterday i mentioned the baby cup and handle on HYG ten min chart.. well, today, it shot right up and filled that objective perfectly. it went up the full depth of the cup from the rim.. love it when that works.
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteI think that interview was too short, I don't get the impression he's looking to go commercial either, if you knew his background he's hardly the average hedge fund guy, not even close, I think he has other things in mind based on the only things he said he was interested in.
@b22
ReplyDeleteThis is 4 u...
http://www.tumbleweedhouses.com/
EWZ had a gap down open.. take a look at that chart! and EM is supposed to be driving the global economy??!!!
ReplyDeletewas that a div Karen?
ReplyDeletegoing back to PTTAX, it is sort of amazing all the bustle about that fund, it's down a whopping 1.6% in the last four weeks.
ReplyDelete$vix.. what happened to my megaphone? it's a little heavy on the bottom now, yikes!
ReplyDeletethis is def. interesting:
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101221-706402.html
anyone get a good shot at the eclipse last night, I took some video but was freezing so it's all shaky
ReplyDeletesnow clouds here @ 2:00 a.m.
ReplyDeletewas it a rusty red moon at totality?
looked more pinkish from my view in DE.
ReplyDeletethere are some great pics online this morning:
ReplyDeletehttp://news.nationalpost.com/2010/12/21/photos-total-eclipse-of-the-moon/
my morning thought is
ReplyDeletethe concept of retirement has gone insane
EM is supposed to be driving the global economy??!!!
ReplyDeleteThat's correct!...
I have proof right here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4z88U915uq8
Here... CV was out last night and got a good picture of the total lunar eclipse...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.blackstarlimousines.com/images/black_screen.jpg
This ought to get me a pulitzer prize for photojournalism...
Ben, I am not sure what you are getting at.. over 10% of the employable or previously employed are now retired with benefits..
ReplyDeleteCV.. i kept staring at the black screen waiting for the image to appear.. LOL
Okay.. someone make the so cal rain stop falling and the market stop going up! can you reverse those two, please, please, please.. this is getting insane, really..
video http://www.businessinsider.com/winter-solstice-lunar-eclipse-2010-12
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteThis is the PEGGY JOSEPH version of Wall St. investing...
"Obama will make my pay my gas and mortgage & make my portfolio go up every day"
@Amen
ReplyDeleteIsn't that like a "homing pigeon" going on in the VIX?
"Elijah was a human being like us, and he prayed fervently that it might not rain, and for three years and six months it did not rain on the earth...
ReplyDeleteThen he prayed again, and Jah gave rain and the earth yielded its harvest."
James 5:17-18
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFYI, Cotton futures locked limit and option trading halted by the exchange. http://digs.by/dKVJim
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDeleteother famous rain men in history
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeYf-rhMQIQ
CV
ReplyDeleteA homing pigeon is a bullish harami with two black bodies. I'd want to say morning star but yesterday didn't gap down so it formed a bullish harami star. It may be confirmed by the close.
@karen (11:17)
ReplyDeleteThey're so enthused - they made up a new dance
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEMVwZRJ-UQ
karen,
ReplyDeleteprobably not the place for a novel on my thoughts on this but what I'm getting at is
the concept of retirement has evolved greatly during the last century, more during your lifetime but especially during mine.
attitudes towards things like this don't move in a straight line, so a large readjustment in the attitude and concept of retirement is in order in the coming decades, imo.
Years ago I had read that there was no word in the Hebrew language that translated to "retirement" which I found very interesting and it sort of peaked my interest since during my whole life retirement was expected by the majority, entire institutions have been built around this concept and this is something so far removed from a few thousand years ago when the concept didn't even exist that I wonder all the time what sort of social change is in order.
From what I have read up until the 20th century, people did not retire. They worked and then they died. Work was viewed as a central part of life and interaction. Though specific working duties often changed with each stage of life, work remained until the last days. People worked to eat and to care for their families.
Retirement as a now expected stage in life is a development of the second half of the 20th century. Prussian Chancellor Otto von Bismarck invented social security in the 1880s, when he set the retirement age at 65. At that time since the average life expectancy was 45, this new social invention was not relevant to the lives of most people.
I think you can agree that expectations and mood have evolved from this point to something very different today.
Anyway, check this article out as I don't really feel much like stringing this out much more, perhaps the early signs of attitude shift:
http://adulted.about.com/b/2009/03/05/banning-the-word-retirement.htm
@McF
ReplyDeleteRetirement (USA style) = "keep coming up with drugs to keep people living longer so that BIG PHARMA can keep raking in profits keeping them alive...
Politicians love it because that's where they get their campaign contributions from...
Isn't life grand?
CV,
ReplyDeleteI do think life is grand
we create our own problems
;-)
@McF
ReplyDeleteI think life is grand too... So I hope I didn't sound too 'snarky' there...
I'm just sick of people running around trying to "fix" problems, when the one obvious solution is right in front of their face...
dont even look at today's AIG candle..
ReplyDeleteGovMo volume 3.7 million.. bet there are a few traders wanting out of that powerhouse.
I hear you, of course, I also think some of these people you might be talking about aren't really trying to fix anything at all and so are missing the solution in front of them on purpose
ReplyDeleteEarly this morning I was reading an op-ed from earlier this year by Burry:
" A week ago I learned the answer when Al Hunt of Bloomberg Television, who had read Michael Lewis’s book, “The Big Short,” which includes the story of my predictions, asked Mr. Greenspan directly. The former Fed chairman responded that my insights had been a “statistical illusion.” Perhaps, he suggested, I was just a supremely lucky flipper of coins."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/04/opinion/04burry.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
CAT = all time high
ReplyDeleteMCD = hit all time high this month
IBM = tabletop from last months all time high
AAPL = right at all time high
@McF
ReplyDeleteAh yes... The GOOD OLD days (when one could "short" stocks, and the market because the fundamentals didn't make sense)...
We've obviously improved upon anything ever going wrong with the world...
WTF is Ritholtz trying to say here...
ReplyDeletehe says it's all sarcasm...
Yet - It's CLEAR that he's as happy as a pig in mud that there was intervention (or else his little 2&20 gig is up)...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/leh-its-all-good-now/#comments
Liking HYG a lot more than AIG.
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDelete9/12/08 SPX closed at 1251.70. This was the start of the Lehman weekend extravaganza. To think we are back at those levels yet banks balance sheets are worse now than they were then.
CV, I honestly don't know what he is trying to say.. because if they quit intervening, the music is gonna stop...
ReplyDeletenot only is the spx back where it was.. and xrt is making all time highs..
and $copper.. you'd think there was a building boom going on..
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteYou should see Lumber futures. There must be a lot of underground bunkers being built because it can't be new homes.
i was literally looking at lumber in the middle of the night recently, no dbl entendre intended.. it is down 2.7% today, btw..
ReplyDeleteCOTTON Mar 1.6443 +0.1031 +6.41
ReplyDeleteLUMBER (RANDO 297.0 -10.0 -3.29
LUMBER (RANDO 297.0 -10.0 -3.26
http://www.ino.com/
anyone have any ideas on the Soft Stuff?
AAIP
looks like the dollar is stirring..
ReplyDeleteNormal analyst metrics don't apply to lumber, or NTFLX.
ReplyDeleteDo you often look at wood in the middle of the night?
ben22 -
ReplyDeletethere's a link on the 2nd page of that burry op-ed How Washington Abetted the Bank Job that is worth reading. denninger would have titled it more like "how the regulators gave the banks bj's"
"and $copper.. you'd think there was a building boom going on..."
ReplyDelete---
well that one is EASY to explain... They've realized that there are now copper shortages because of all the nickles that CV has taken out of circulation...
The hanging man on the CRB chart from yesterday was pardoned.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous
ReplyDeleteBWAHAHAHAHA good one.
@Amen (12:13)
ReplyDeleteTo think we are back at those levels yet banks balance sheets are worse now than they were then.
Apparently, too, is there average unborn citizen who comes into this world $1.2mm in debt...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/245-trillion-us-national-debt-144-trillion-unfunded-liabilities-2015
Thanks, in part, to the GOP - Obama "compromise"... (Whereby BOTH sides get the "worst" of spending per projects)...
Like a fat kid at the table trying to decide of he wants the chocolate eclair or napoleon for dessert...
Oh I'll just have to "compromise"... Give me BOTH!
wild weather and earthquakes around the globe: Breaking News
ReplyDelete7.4 magnitude earthquake strikes Japan's Bonin Islands http://bit.ly/gqMx66
Indonesia had one last night, I believe.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/21/news/economy/thebuzz/index.htm
ReplyDelete"copper zigs while china zags"
But the disconnect between rising copper prices and sinking Chinese stock prices probably can't last much longer.
"Something's gotta give there," wrote Dan Wantrobski, director of technical research for Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, in a report Monday. "Either copper prices ... see [a] correction ahead, or the Chinese stock market rallies back."
Still, some experts think that the run in copper makes sense and that the pullback in China may be temporary.
Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics in Austin, Tx., said that a China rate hike would not be enough to kill its economy.
"Even if China's growth were to 'slow,' it's only going to slow so much," he said. "I'm not concerned about demand for copper collapsing. Growth will remain robust in China."
Michael Hellenbrand, chief executive officer of Russian Anglo Mineral Resources Ltd , a London-based firm with iron mining rights in Russia, said he thinks copper should continue to head higher thanks to strong demand from the big four emerging markets, the so-called BRIC nations.
ReplyDelete"China will need more raw material for infrastructure. Brazil, India and Russia are no different," he said. "The run in copper prices and other industrial metals is not likely to end next year."
Let's hope not. If copper prices retreat, that may be a sign that hopes for a significant global economic rebound in 2011 may be fading
Janney Montgomery Scott's Wantrobski wrote that if copper prices pull back, "they will most likely take U.S. stocks lower as well."
yup.. the one trade is still going strong.
ReplyDeleteTBT is fluttering.
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeletefwiw, BR is not a 2&20 guy to my knowledge.
That aside, this market is really something, the Santa rally lives.
anyone here using Groupon?
ReplyDeleteMGUF. John E paradise.
ReplyDeletecute commet: CreateCapital Scott Bleier
ReplyDelete$$ Market feels like the company Christmas party where everyone's drinking hard. The smartest ones leave the party early...
HYG is well above the 88.50 level that was so crucial recently.
ReplyDeleteJohn E should be careful.
ReplyDeleteI like to do surprise exams in early January.
I kno', right?
ReplyDeletei think there was a copper short etf.. scop but it seems to have disappeared.. the base metals short is bom.
ReplyDeleteI'm all out of the longs I had set up at the start of the month, looking to add a little bit more to my small SPY short, lots of people say there is no evidence to short here, I just disagree, and I could blah blah why, but who cares.
ReplyDeleteStops at 128 and a penny on SPY per Neely wave count.
Humbug.
ReplyDeleteLight misty rain all night and all day.
I should have taken the week off and gone somewhere.
Love the Antoine Dodson. I found that one several weeks....that's viral video for sure.
ReplyDeleteThe News producers probably shit themselves when they found that guy.
Very slow week in commodity trading....
ReplyDeleteIt's a very quiet market.
The AD music video has almost 60 million hits on utube and is also on iTunes
ReplyDeleteit's still funny too
anyone else here that got into the Starz show Spartacus last year?
ReplyDeleteNew one starts in a few weeks
Hey, Andy, tell us about your love of Christmas : )
ReplyDeleteBruce, I so wanted a white Christmas for you!! Now my hopes, dreams, visions are ruined!
Karen,
ReplyDeleteLefty told me to tell you that he's had dreams for you, too. (Was that ok to tell, Lefty? You didn't say not to..)
Actually there is a 50/50 chance of snow on Christmas day. ...just stop this gray drizzle, if you please...
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI have dreams of you, in something sheer, working that sump pump...
Is that ok?
Yellow Card.
ReplyDeleteNo double entendres about pumps, lumber, moisture, five inches or anything along those lines.
ReplyDeleteYellow cards for all that lot.
no one would be surprised to learn or see that the candle chart of jjc looks so much like the candle chart of spy.
ReplyDeletehow about tops and bottoms?
ReplyDeleteAnd I throw the red challenge flag to your double entendre!
ReplyDeleteI think of Karen as a daughter...
The very idea!
@McF
ReplyDeleteI use "2&20" figuratively (to basically describe a HF or asset mgr)...
I know the definitions are more distinct but it's more more 'flippant' to describe it the way I do... (which I do on purpose, of course)...
Tops, bottoms and bearish thrusts are all chart formations.
ReplyDeleteNO foul.
Play on...!!
AR, have you seen today's JJC candle?! is that stellar, or what?! what are the odds there will be an even higher one tomorrow?
ReplyDeletehmmm, what about the wedge
ReplyDeleteis there a pattern called camel toe
or did that just go way too far?
Yellow card.
ReplyDeleteI know one when I see one...
http://www.fashion-incubator.com/archive/anatomy_of_a_camel_toe_pt1/
ReplyDeleteMake sure thongs don't get out of hand...
ReplyDeleteI heard CSCO is looking at thongs for 2011
ReplyDeleteba dum
ching!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oai1V7kaFBk
The thong song?
ReplyDeleteIt is a slow day, isn't it Ben...
:)
Slow at the mine, too....
Flashback to something that JOHN E is ignorant of:
ReplyDeletehttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/_V7Pddp58Py0/SpFh9f4kQII/AAAAAAAACYM/Yw1xm1cqTsA/s1600-h/nikk+93.png
Japan 1992-94 = US 2009-2011?
China tends to lead, remember, and China rolled over a while ago....
2011 Trade may be the AUSTERILIZER... long USD/USTs, short EMs, miners and short precious metals...?
I've got an awful head cold, need to keep myself in a decent "mood" in here today Bruce in between hacking up a lung.
ReplyDeletenice chart Proctologist, matches the wave count I'm running with perfectly for what is probable to come next.
ReplyDeletewe might call it a cleansing
Karen, we need exciting icons, the market isn't entertaining.
ReplyDeleteAfter all these years saw a guy in the mine yesterday with Proteus syndrome (never seen anyone with it before) that had never been diagnosed. It is what the Elephant Man probably had instead of neurofibromatosis.
ReplyDelete...wasn't hard, one hand was twice the size of the other...
Bruce,
ReplyDeletedo you ever have people coming in that one 10-12 things done at once like ths Heidi girl from Laguna Hills?
I saw her on some tv show last night saying she regrets all the work she had done now since she had gone nuts with it.
Also, GQ just ran an article recently about hair restoration surgery, they give a list of all the people that specialize at it and named a bunch of famous people that had it done.
I think when the time comes I'm going to embrace the bald. MJ did it.
"coming in that want 10-12 things done at once"
ReplyDeletethat is
We are bringing more cash into our Special Situations portfolio. That's AM language for hedging, shorting stuff outright and using leverage. In the other portfolios we don't allow leverage or shorting.
ReplyDeleteOne of our more tedious portfolios allows only SPY, QQQQ, TIP, and AGG, no shorts and no leverage. Needless to say, large cash positions can arise there. Another one can use EEM, LQD and HYG as well as TLT, in addition to SPY, EWJ and so on.
This is a layered risk approach, and the overall volatility is dependent on the relative sizes. The more tedious ones are the largest, thus ensuring we experience very low volatility, while the special situations retains some flexibility.
and it's The Hills,
ReplyDeleteholy crap, if anyone can read that 2:27 feel free to respond, wow, might have sucked back more nyqil than I thought last night.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/12/21/world/main7171143.shtml?tag=stack
ReplyDeleteU.K Man Admits to Shooting Prostitutes in Head with Crossbow, Dismembering and Eating Them; Gets Life in Prison
"According to neighbors and his Myspace page, Griffiths had an advanced degree in psychology, and was studing towards a Ph.D. in criminology, with a focused study on homicide and serial killers, the Daily Mail reports."
...See what happens when you discontinue government programs too quickly CV? When you can no longer afford catfood?
...I may forward this to Obama....
Ben,
ReplyDeleteThe 10-12 girls are very common. Unfortunately there are some that will do whatever is asked for the buck. Lots of folks now with DO and MD degrees that take weekend courses that offer procedures for less money, and often it ends unhappily...
I have several that we are "fixing" previous work...
ReplyDeleteMcB,
ReplyDeletemake sure to take it EZ on the 'Night-Kill'..
remember, Florida Citrus is in Season..
Vitamin C+Hydration in one, ready-to-go, Package..almost like G-d was looking out for us :)
AAIP
well, didn't expect you to say that.
ReplyDeleteit would seem to me when it comes to needing a very specific skill going to the cheap route probably isn't a great idea
Ben (8:45) - Years ago I was on a voluteer fire dept, the town had a low income area that had subsudized housing. Many of the houses were duplexes.
ReplyDeleteOne night we had a fire in one of the duplexes and it was raging pretty good, so we sent someone over to the attached duplex to let them know they needed to get out.
So the guy grabs is tv and beer, sets the tv up on the porch, moves a lawn chair to the porch and proceeds to watch tv and drink beer while his neighbors house burns.
Mangy Mutt
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/12/21/ap/world/main7171611.shtml?tag=channelMore;latestRight
ReplyDeleteRussians To Face Tougher Restrictions On Moving
"Russians are already required to log in some movements around the country with authorities, and Putin's call would signal a further clampdown.
The restrictions Putin mentioned are aimed at people from the dilapidated, mainly Muslim southern Caucasus region looking to relocate to big cities, because there is little migration in the opposite direction."
...Or they could pass DREAM legislation...
"Don't
Relocate
'Effin
your
A
Muslim"
(Best I could do in 45 seconds.)
of course your could be You're...but...
ReplyDeleteBen:
ReplyDeleteIf you are ever considering a butt tuck, don't have it done in Mexico. Or a face lift.
(Lefty asked me about these things, you see..)
AAIP,
ReplyDeleteyeah good lookin out, I really don't like that stuff, I'm so spaced out in the morning after I use it, but it helped put me to sleep last night as I was outside in the cold and coughing a ton looking at the moon. Sick or not it's been a few hundred years since a lunar eclipse on Winter Soltice so I wasn't going to miss that.
Been drinking lots of juice and tea today.
so, guess who just introduced a bill to end the fed?
ReplyDeleteRon Paul? NOT!
Try Dennis Kucinich!!
Dennis Kucinich: Delete The Fed
ah, yes, ass implants, I also considered getting that after watching Saving Silverman
ReplyDeleteBruce,
ReplyDeletewhat about calf implants? I see some bodybuilders want to get those.
Mostly in California and up East. Always leaves a telltale scar right in the crease of the knee.
ReplyDeleteBodybuilders who are genetically not endowed with the ability to enlarge the gastrocnemius and soleus get these...
wow, yes, here it is:
ReplyDeletehttp://agonist.org/don/20101221/dennis_kucinichs_bill_to_end_the_fed
my first reaction is great, but I want to read that and see if it's legit.
I think this trend is just getting started
b'n't
ReplyDelete"If you are ever considering a butt tuck, don't have it done in Mexico. Or a face lift."
if not mexico, what's the goin' rates in the republic of easttennessee
ben -
ReplyDeletedenninger sez, paul has to man up now and support this bill, otherwise he's an empty suit.
from the two extremes of the political spectrum...
can they squeeze the middle in the 'nads?
I agree 72, and I'm a little confused as to why DK beat him to it, but lets see how this plays out, it won't happen quickly.
ReplyDeletewhat is wrong with these bots?! there are not jamming that's for sure : ) there is no high in their frequency, or frequency in their high.
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteJJC would look even more interesting if yesterday was a long day.
From the Kucinich bill:
ReplyDelete"...Americans' largest single investment, the home, is no longer a safe harbor for savings, nest eggs, social mobility, or the transfer of generational wealth."
I don't think that anything has changed vis-a-vis the risk in real estate investing (given that no new policy has been introduced to make income a more important determinate of home prices than subsidy).
Only the perception of risk has changed. The quoted statement is similar to saying, in 2001, that dot.com equities are not longer a safe harbour for the simple reason that they were one-directional for several years.
Neither of them ever were a safe harbor. All assets that generate real returns are, by definition, risky.
Matthew,
ReplyDeleteYou get an A+ for the day.
spy at lowest volume of the year?!! lower even than the friday after thanksgiving. you have to go back to last christmas eve to find a lower volume day.
ReplyDeletea fun read:
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbreaker.com/2010/12/heads-up-play-with-david-einhorn-a-qa/
i have 1256 in my head from somewhere.. maybe more important than 18s 1260... 1255.11 so far.
ReplyDeleteLefty is for ever associated with one of the most famous bottoms.
ReplyDeleteSurely no need for a butt tuck..?
I always like to do my best work after a low volume up week.
ReplyDeleteIf China tightens on the 26th, I will visit Mr Market.
Never ever be short in a low volume pre-holiday market.
ReplyDeleteI tend to arrive late in the day during the Santa Claus rally.
DF might be putting in a cup and handle over 2 months.. just noted an article about them:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fool.com/investing/value/2010/12/21/rising-star-buy-dean-foods.aspx
30yr Bond 121.09375 +0.34375 +0.28
ReplyDelete10yr Note 120.234375 +0.156250 +0.13
NY Gold 1387.5 +1.4 +0.10
NY Silver 29.365 +0.010 +0.03
Crude Oil
89.70
+0.33 +0.37%
CRB Index
326.80
+2.53 +0.70%
http://www.ino.com/
"Boil'em in Fiat~!"
AAIP
what's scary is that all the bulls i follow on twitter are going short the spx now.. bet they end up having to cover and push this market up to 1300
ReplyDeletehonestly, this is the hokiest market i have ever witnessed.. worse than dot.com..
ReplyDeleteworse than 2007-2008
ReplyDeletebut no way we can have another "crash" so soon.
We took profits in DF but still have a modest position as part of our 15% equity longs. AZN is looking interesting as a cheap dividend payer here, but we don't want to be a JOHN E buyer this week.
ReplyDeleteHYG at 89.77, you all know what that means...
Thanks, Santa...
ReplyDeleteBut could you please start a little earlier tomorrow? It was hard waiting for you...
I-Man, best not to use the word "hard" with the crowd we have here today.
ReplyDeletewonder is 1254 will be support now..
ReplyDelete"...this is the hokiest market i have ever witnessed..."
ReplyDeletethinking similarly, current 'Market' feels 'pushed' "to extremes"..
as an aside, Natural Gas 4.102 -0.162 -3.80
ol' Natty has been getting 'Yo-Yo'd' these last couple of Days..
'lack of Storage' is getting to be a bit of a B***h..
AAIP
Did you actually receive 5-6 inches overnight?
ReplyDeleteOne assumes it was very wet during all that pumping?
Karen, I saw that...
ReplyDeleteGetting a little hot in herre.
k -
ReplyDeletere 126...
9/19/08 spx closed at 1255.07
downhill from there to lefty's bottom not quite 6 mo.s later
i would say that GLD is rolling over on the ten min.. and looks like it'll drop hard, i mean more, tomorrow.
ReplyDeletebut i don't want to jinx it so don't read my 3:59
ReplyDeleteCV, i know you get paid by the post : )
ReplyDeletere 1256
ReplyDeleteI bet we get another silly season up day tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteokay, we got our first spy close above 125.
ReplyDeletethanks bat! we didn't close higher than that today, rolling my eyes as there probably will be a tomorrow to deal with.
bat, i knew what you meant, laughing.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow could be even worse volume wise than today...
ReplyDeleteSeriously, at times today it felt like a feather touch in either direction would touch off a big move.
Just have to sit, wait, watch, wait, watch, wait...
There were signs that someone was on the sly "accum" starting at about 2pm est... y'know, the old "pick up a little, little more, little more... ok, now lets make it a bit more obvious... ok sweet, now lets start to distribute" trade.
Dull markets can present some good opportunities, but you cant be distracted, and you have to sit still... forever it seems.
But if you get in when you start to see the signs, and then bounce as soon as it goes blow off, you can make the big boys work for you.
They really are some predictable muthafuckaz.
Some cool amateur photos (no, not that kind,) of the I-Clipse last night from some folks up in AK:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ifish.net/board/showthread.php?p=3436950#post3436950
"I bet we get another silly season up day tomorrow."
ReplyDeleteWe'll see, that's back to back days SP and VIX were green so I'm not sure the highest probability is up, this is something around 70% for a red day the next day but who knows on such light volume
regardless, I see an irregular top forming, glad most people are super bullish, and most people are, all the best moves come when you combine those two.
not to mention
ReplyDeletedollar up
stocks up
commodities up
bonds up
um.....ok.
Yup. All up. Everything goes up.
ReplyDeleteExcept the rain...
SPX 1750. You have my word.
ReplyDeleteRa
ReplyDeleteWe need a chart of HYG now, complete with a line at 88.50.
OK, this is silly, but we all need a little extra entertainment.
SPX 1750 is Conservative, the Markets are very Constructive, Monetary Policy will be the Bridge to robust Economic Recovery..
ReplyDelete"Lefty is for ever associated with one of the most famous bottoms."
ReplyDeleteCV is still waiting for the LK bottom (Lopez-Kardashian) to go "all in"...
Women everywhere are panting, eagerly awaiting…
ReplyDeleteThe Bond Report 12.21.10
Today was a mild flattener, with yields falling slightly at the long end. IG and HY were well bid and Ts outperformed TIPS. HYG remained close to the resistance zone at 90, but well above the all-important 88,50 level discussed in the blog.
Corpies: LQD 0.21%; AGG 0.19%; JNK 0.12%; HYG 0.21%
Govies: TLT 0.70%; IEI 0.03%; TIP 0.17%
Hedgies: TBT -1.18%
We did nothing. Still long a HYG/LQD combination, and TIP. No AGG, no Treasuries yet. Cash is handy this time of the year, unless you are BRIAN who always likes JOHN E to be ALL IN. We like to see how the year begins before we put Bucky to work.
don't get cocky, LB, HYG could easily get to 88.50 tomorrow and certainly by year end.. last two day's candles almost dictate it.
ReplyDeletePIGS update from Mish:
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/spotlight-on-european-government-bonds.html
K, don't count your panties until you're wearing them....
Did you say "cocky?"
good thing you spelled "dictate" correctly...
ReplyDeleteThat could have opened up a can of worms...
(Oh no... he said "worms")...
It was another good day for me, for the firm and for Greed.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1340176/Citigroup-banker-27-leaps-death-40-storey-Trump-building.html
ReplyDelete