All I can say is... Dudes the Miami
March 12, 2010
March 16, 2010
And I tell you... Just yesterday... I had to give a speech on what the average Joe must be thinking...
September 27,2010
"Apparently... nobody gives a FF about bankers, 'Wall Streeters', or the opinion of Wall Streeters who blog..."
"They're too busy facing the REALITY that they don't have a job, and probably don't have a boat or a Ferrari to get themselves to the movie theatre to buy a ticket to see a film about people who they don't relate to in the least bit, and continue to lie to them 23 years after the fact..."
So I suppose my final take on the subject is that all the blogs (and the little "BLOGGETTEERS" out there ought to start getting in touch with some real things out there)...
The REAL WORLD, isn't the corridors of Congress, or the little Hampton's Parties, the Palm Springs pool parties, African Safaris, or jars of pickled okra...
Instead... It's the six inches in front of your face... Now - What are you gonna do?
Don't know if it is ok to criticize Al Pacino but in most of his later movies, he comes across as an actor who is acting. One can feel that act of acting. "Any Given Sunday" otherwise is a movie I love. Good photography and background score.
ReplyDeleteAnd given the things, a flash crash now in the markets would be a good distraction.
Yen back above its weekly 3LB reversal price. Ring ring. Hello Japanese FinMin. You got some work to do.
ReplyDelete"HeRRo"?
ReplyDeleteMorning! aapl getting taken down..
ReplyDelete>> Don't know if it is ok to criticize Al Pacino
ReplyDeleteIt's *not* ok. ;-)
Scent of a Woman??
ReplyDeleteseems like a good read, Vince Farrell: "A round of QE II will not work. If you gave a party and no one came your social standing would be trashed (not that I know from first hand experience or anything like that). If we tried QE II and it flopped, the market might be badly rattled. Better to threaten you’re going to launch. But then Hank Paulson hoped that the threat of his TARP bazooka would straighten the market up so it would march properly to the tune of money, and it didn’t. Ben, back off. Don’t play the bluff. QE II would be a huge mistake. QE-I didn’t rejuvenate bank lending or stop deflation fears and QE-II won’t either."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/bens-bluffing/
"If you gave a party and no one came your social standing would be trashed (not that I know from first hand experience or anything like that)"
ReplyDelete---
Is that from YOU or VF? :-)
They are calling aapls 15 pt drop a mini flash crash? give me a break!
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDeleteEUBIQUITOUS [08:27:03 AM] Today is T+3.. either its "window dressing" or "window smashing" 85ish locals in the pit- its thin w/ sell stops
@karen
ReplyDeleteThe BEARS won last night (at home against the Packers)...
So I'm sure there was much partying in Chicago late into the night...
mrtopstep
ReplyDelete[08:46:08 AM]: Top notch below globex low 1131.50 sup area nxt downside obj 1127 area
3 minutes ago via TweetDeck
It's starting to make Friday's rally on the Tepper comments look pretty silly...
ReplyDeleteTepper's absolute low was 1100.. then he'd go all in I think : ) Guess he thinks that is where the backstop is..
ReplyDeleteWe better watch the TNX.. El-Erian thinks the possible low is just under 2.5.. of course, we got there both before and after his interview..
better listen to this!! LOVE IT!! http://macro-man.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeleteI guess he must have meant that 2nd backstop (from yesterdays fotos)...
ReplyDeleteReading this and that Ed Yardini piece posted by Maudlin..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.pimco.com/Pages/StanDruckenmillerisLeaving.aspx
watch tbt.. getting close to its low..
ReplyDeleteSurprise, Surprise!
ReplyDeleteIt looks to me that Karen's top is going to be fighting to stay on again if 1122.79 is broke.
I really don't have an opinion of where we are going, hence my silence of late.
I can see legitimate counts UP and DOWN.
The fact Neely is bullish is concerning shorter term.
I hate charts like AAPL. There's no good entry point. I have seen price go down to the 20 EMA and bounce off like that only to keep going up lots of times. Look at all the gold miners over the last two weeks for examples.
ReplyDelete1130 might be the floor.. other ideas??
ReplyDeleteRosie! "Stick with what is certain in an uncertain environment"
ReplyDeleteLOL.. What was Ben's expression again?
Alot of support out there... we could peel off 350 pts or so on YM (put us around 10325) and still be in an uptrend.
ReplyDeleteFor now, trend down on the 1min, but not impressed, or over eager to short the lights out...
When zooming out to the hourly chart, hard to not see that uptrend... its a doozy.
Can't wait to get the comments on BR's posting of Hirsch:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/dow-38820-by-2025/
@karen
ReplyDelete"1130 might be the floor.. other ideas??"
I'll put up one of those AH charts in a minute... On a quick glance, that's as good a guess as any...
another way to track the 10 year: IEF
ReplyDeleteAUDJPY, EURJPY, Oil are all down. TNX below 2.5%.
ReplyDeleteClose was 1142.16 so
.00557= 1135.80
.009= 1131.88
.01459= 1125.50
.0236= 1115.21
Bulls have their work cut out for them.
Tepper said he would be 90% in at 1000. But don't you take the bait Karen. Laughing...
ReplyDeleteAhh... strategic short slaughter...
ReplyDeleteAre we having fun yet?
new chart in thread
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to say...
My theory (from yesterday) was that we're heading towards rolling over in October...
10/1 is Friday 10/4 is Monday...
You can be sure that sure that some hedgies would like to distribute to the 401k momos on those days...
I'd think at this point they'd want to do it at the most inflated prices possible so that favors "hanging on" here...
OTOH - We could see a little technical drop here, and, if it were supported at some critical levels, that could lead to a massive high(er) volume rally for those thinking the green light was on...
Any rally into the October jobs number (next Friday) would hopefully be enough of a distraction to get thru a stinker (otherwise they'll have to do the full on SPIN job)...
It'll be the last jobs number b4 the elections...
Lets see... folks long alot of weight need bids in order to liquidate...
ReplyDeleteEquity fund steady outflows since May...
Lets see...
Who's gonna pick up the tab?
$gold and GLD at new highs.. boy did i leave that party too early !
ReplyDeleteon daily candle chart, spy/$spx tapped 10 ema.. let's see how long the stair step climb can continue.. certainly to 1170.
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDelete"Who's gonna pick up the tab?"
Nobody, apparently...
I'm starting to think we'll just ABC-X-ABC-X ourselves to death, EWI will have to write a few new rules chapters starting with...
"What happens when you have a moronic central banker gone nuts who wants to monetize everything down to the last bowl of matzo ball soup..."
"LOL.. What was Ben's expression again?"
ReplyDeleteTotal Conviction Environment
Learn it
Love it
Live it
@karen
ReplyDeleteDon't remind me about gold...
Or else... Go ahead, remind me all you want :-)
Thing is tho... (a drumbeat that CV continues to make)...
Off the '08 lows GLD has not quite doubled (getting there)...
SLV? Working it's way up to a triple...
my advisor indicator told me in the parking lot this morning:
ReplyDelete"bee do is going to $150 by the end of next month", this was a follow up to his "apple will hit $400 'easy'" call.
I keep seeing these kind of statements everywhere:
"Ya, you are right, there is no downside left in AAPL. Do you know what a parabola is?"
I can't go more than 5 minutes anywhere without hearing about one of the following:
QE II
Inflation
POMO
The Fed
The Fed
The Fed
total conviction environment
they always end in tears
I thought it was "No Shirt, No Shoes, No Dice"
ReplyDeleteLearn it
Know it
Live it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RUe02kPWvg
The next snowball: Tuesday, September 28th, 2010, 9:54 am
ReplyDeleteBarclays Capital notified investors of shortfalls on a double-A rated Goldman Sachs commercial mortgage-backed securities pool, one of the highest CMBS tranches to see a shortage of interest payments.
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/28/shortfalls-creep-into-double-a-cmbs-pool
Darn, I was really hoping for some intelligent and lively debate over that 38820 dow call post at TBP.. nothing so far..
yelnick trying to claim yesterday's sell-off was due to Prechter.
ReplyDeletepuhleeese! dumbest thing I've heard since yesterday morning.
Prechter is likely one of the least respected analysts out there, I mean, he's not David Tepper.
"Will individual investors ever get back in when 75% of their advisers don't believe that the recession is over?"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investmentnews.com/article/20100926/REG/309269973
CV,
ReplyDeleteSpicoli is your fav movie character of all time isn't he?
I really hate trading right now.
ReplyDeleteSee yall later.
I'd like to see something more from the dollar, it would appear to me that wave 2 of C has started if that is the correct count....how low will she go?
ReplyDeleteI dare say we are going down again.. at least a retest of today's lows..
ReplyDelete* Brazil will buy dollars in a "currency war," finance minister says
ReplyDeleteBrazil will try to slow an increase in the value of the real by purchasing U.S. dollars, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said. Brazil won't stand by and let other countries take its export business by devaluing their currencies, he said. "We are experiencing a currency war," Mantega said. "Devaluing currencies artificially is a global strategy." Bloomberg (27 Sep.) , Reuters (28 Sep.) , The Globe and Mail (Toronto)/Market Blog (27 Sep.)
So, the currency wars are all about competing for the lowest [real] unit labor costs to make exports competitive. How big will be the second queasing in the United States AND--more importantly--is it fully priced into gold or is there another run ahead?
looks like the dollar needs a last leg down still
ReplyDeleteyeah.. the dollar is miserable.. currency wars FE.. i posted about the Brazilian FM's comments yesterday.
ReplyDeleteYou can see heavy buying by looking at TICKS. I call it desperation. Snagglepuss and Katherine were at the door.
ReplyDeleteI can get courtside seats to Sixers vs. Heat on 10/27 for $265 per person.
ReplyDeleteworth it?
Plus there were so many reversal candles the bulls probably couldn't sleep a wink last night.
ReplyDeletecurrency wars...so 1930's.
ReplyDeleteAR.. i'm not sure about that.. for the bulls, every dip is a buying op!
ReplyDeleteI told you people that those constant cries a few weeks ago of "too many bears" was just a bunch of rubbish:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ken-Fisher-Dubs-New-Normal-bloomberg-2154212900.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
"Ken Fisher Dubs New Normal `Idiotic,' Sees `Great' Decade Ahead"
whether ken Fisher is correct or not, the fact that he's out calling this forecast idiotic is what matters.
very few people understand how to read sentiment imo.
but hey, he "picked up on Barry's monkey reference" so he da man....
ReplyDeleteI blame Bush, not sure for what, I just blame him.
Bruce's ECH started off badly this morning but is going up with everything else right now.. well, up a pittance but up nonetheless to a new high.
ReplyDeleteBarry should really stop talking about Prechter as well, because he's spouting a lot of misinformation and is not accurately representing what Prechter is forecasting, I'd suggest people be careful reading about BP at TBP.
ReplyDeleteHe had an entire post dedicated to BP's Dow 2,000 call....this is NOT Prechter's forecast.
The Pimco piece is really, really good, tho depressing: "What is more likely is a policy resort to reflation on a multitude of policy fronts: low interest rates and quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, near double-digit deficits as a percentage of GDP from Washington. What the U.S. economy needs to do in order to return to the “old” normal is to recreate nominal GDP growth of 5%, the majority of which likely comes from inflation. Inflation is the classic “coin shaving” technique of government since the Roman Empire."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.pimco.com/Pages/StanDruckenmillerisLeaving.aspx
@ben22
ReplyDelete"I can get courtside seats to Sixers vs. Heat on 10/27 for $265 per person.
worth it?"
---
Finally won some tickets to see Dr. J...
Front Row seats... It's FREE... NO PAY... Radio in hand... snacks by feet... games about to start you kickin popcorn to the beat...
YOU BE ILLIN'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sfDafkKetA&feature=related
His closing statements: "There is no 8% there for pension funds. There are no stocks for the long run at 12% returns. And the most likely consequence of stimulative government policies that strain to get us there will be a declining dollar and a lower standard of living. Stan Druckenmiller is leaving, and with good reason. A future of low investment returns, and a heap of trouble for those expecting more, is what lies ahead."
ReplyDeletesmsearsBarrons
ReplyDeletemarket is chock full of rumors. this is always true, but truer today
Karen,
ReplyDeleteIs that what PIMCO thinks "we" need, or is that what "they" want?....also, I would suggest a case study in nominal GDP rates in Japan during their deflation, which is on-going.
it's.......amazing
that said, it seems more likely to me every day that if I were to sell my book now I probably would be happy in ten years as this may be the best multiple I will be able to get in my lifetime.
@Amen
ReplyDelete"You can see heavy buying by looking at TICKS. I call it desperation. Snagglepuss and Katherine were at the door."
It is desperation...
But I think it's desperation that can still keep things afloat for perhaps another week or so...
Since March '09... This same phenomenon has happened about a half dozen times...
A lot of nervousness builds up (with everyone looking for the exits)... It doesn't eventually roll over until the upside is taken out...
"what lies ahead."
ReplyDeleteEXACTLY! (emphasis on "lies")...
A bullish argument worth looking at:
ReplyDeletehttp://dragonflycap.com/2010/09/history-is-important-2003-all-over-again/
Problem inflating to $150 crude puts brakes on the economy.. I don't think the Fed cares about gold at all.. no harm no foul at $1600 or even $3000.
@karen
ReplyDelete"Darn, I was really hoping for some intelligent and lively debate over that 38820 dow call post at TBP"
Let me break that down for you...
- DOW 38820
- intelligent & lively debate
Wouldn't that be somewhat OXYMORONIC?...
...and... at TBP, no less...
Here, let's start the conversation:
Franklin411: "Well - FDR's policies in the 30's, coupled with "the Presidents" call to sacrifice for working Americans should lead us through to that eventual conclusion as long as they're followed to the letter... After all, I have a 40 year timeframe on investments...
VennData If Sara Palin runs in 2012, or any GOP politician ever makes it into office, you can kiss your 38,000 goodbye...
BRThis blog has the most intelligent bloggetteers on the planet...
Thor"Bloggeteers"? You rang? I was just trying to keep peace somewhere else... Just checked in to make sure there weren't any confrontations...
interesting: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/why-was-aig-rescued-after-lehman-had-failed.html
ReplyDeleteTornado watch issued for N.Y., N.J., Pa., Conn., Mass; effective through 6 pm EDT
ReplyDelete@ben22
ReplyDeleteI blame Bush, not sure for what, I just blame him...
Me too...
In fact... I BLAME BUSH for the fact that TWSWB blames BUSH for everything...
Karen, he has the same forecast as everybody else that is bullish, he only needed to put these lines there and the rest was the same conclusions as the net:
ReplyDelete"With the shift in Fed speak on inflation last week, when interest rates are at zero, this also leaves the Fed with only one tool, a devaluation of the currency. Expect that as they use it the current trend in Gold will continue and that the S&P 500 will join it. "
the Fed
Qe lite
Qe 1.5
Qe 2.0
Qe 2.169
The Fed
Beards, whips, chains, whistels, yo-yo's.
total conviction environment, stocks go up no matter what
remember in 08 when Bernanke was a fool?
hehehe.
businessinsider
ReplyDelete$39 Used Putter Wins $11.35 Million Championship by @nichcarlson http://read.bi/9vyJg2
@karen (11:56)
ReplyDeleteI can go along "somewhat" on that thesis, but here's the problem...
If it turns out that there is only one (or one "area" of) asset class(es) going up... While the rest is flat, or down...
Then those prices will end up in a bubble, which will eventually get deflated like everything else...
In 2003 on, it was the housing market... MOSTLY...
Problem is, there's no mass LIQUIDATION for a housing market gone awry (as we have seen)...
With a PM, or stocks, it can happen easily... (or not so - lately - it seems)...
But let's put it this way... If gold DOES go to a bubble state, and the FED "doesn't" care, as you say...
Then I'm even MORE certain that when that bubble pops, they'll be totally ecstatic...
folks seem to be loading up on dzz today.. just checked the volume..
ReplyDeleteokay.. just doubled my dzz holding..
ReplyDeletezerohedge
ReplyDeleteGross, El-Erian Rumored Replacements For Larry Summers http://bit.ly/bgJ6d6
may i reiterate my dislike of this market?? time to preoccupy myself with some ironing.. : )
ReplyDeleteClassic....
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704760704575515291872456622.html
That WSJ article highlights a lot of funny things...Motorcycle Apprciation Month, Cuss Free Week, Happy Cow advertising in US (not NZ), Lobster Commission....
ReplyDeleteWorking hard on all the right things in the Golden State.
"Failure to pass a budget has reinforced the most populous state's image as also the most ungovernable." As CA goes, so goes the...
ReplyDeleteI don't know what to think about this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/second-mini-flash-crash-apple-one-day
dhh - Facebook is supposedly worth more than FedEx, Dell, Capital One, Sony, Lockheed Martin, and MasterCard. #whatajoke
ReplyDeleteand good advice.. better keep some limit orders in place in case trading platforms get overloaded..
naufalsanaullah
ReplyDeleteForeign CBs front-running Fed... Indirect bidders driving tsys even higher
who bot these, where did the money come from, and why were they needed with all the other products out there? I realize 65 mil is chumps change to some.. but my head is spinning.. in other words.. i am clueless at the moment. : )
ReplyDeleteBank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) sold $65 million in structured notes which are linked to its Investable Volatility Index.
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/09/28/bank-of-america-corp-nyse-bac-sells-65-million-in-volatility-notes/
Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain...
ReplyDeleteAnyway...
ReplyDeleteThe answer is YOU...
You bought it by way of devalued dollars going forward...
The PRIDE of ownership!
Ben, if you are around, what is RR saying these days..
ReplyDeletekaren,
ReplyDeletenot too much new, he loves gold above all else, was really bearish a few weeks back but has toned that down some since, basically has told investors they can do what they want but he's cash and gold and I think he owns a few small positions in gold miners or an ETF of them.
he did a big letter not long ago about what women really want...that was interesting.
@karen
ReplyDeletenice move there so far (12:17)...
CV was actually on your (high) heels on that one...
was really bearish on stocks that is, re: RR.
ReplyDeleteI looked at dzz, can't do it, good luck.
ReplyDeleteThink they're pissed that Momo Monday got derailed?
ReplyDeletereally digging this album
ReplyDeletethis was is cosmic baby:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EIeUlvHAiM&ob=av2e
@Amen
ReplyDeleteNowadays we have
- MOMO Monday's
- POMO Tuesdays/Thursdays & Friday's
So I guess that leaves WEDNESDAYS that the markets can go down...
SELL INTO THE CLOSE!
topstep: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou_YLiWAQ3o&feature=player_embedded
ReplyDeleteAfternoon bubbas...did I miss anything?
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteThat or the fact that they couldn't hit 1150 after repeated efforts. As soon as it get hits massive selling should kick in...
wading thru comments on zerohedge's On Jumping Sharks With Barry Ritholtz
ReplyDeleteand espied this:
Cursive
"Those were the golden days of TBP. Bruce in TN, Leftback, Karen, DL, Mannwich, Steve Barry, call me ahab, Onlooker from Troy, I-Man, Mark E Hoffer, Andy Taboo, Mike in Nola, dead hobo, wunsacon, pmorrisonfl, Amen Ra, Marcus Aurelius, CNBCSucks, Transor Z, impermanence, etc. and John Borchers. Oh, John Borchers! Anyone who's been long and laughing, let me warn you that you don't get Borchered. TBP was good. Then Harry Wanger showed up. There were plenty of theories that BR was really Harry Wanger. I could believe that. There was the same rumor about franklin411. It all went to hell shortly thereafter. The Congress flap was a biggie, it was Barry's Waterloo:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/fed-vs-congress-lesser-of-two-evils/
Interesting that it was a year and a day ago."
Well, just got in and it is lunch, and I finished my paperwork and have 20 minutes...catch me up.
ReplyDeletedid they determine who jumped the shark yet?
ReplyDeleteright now that is on my list of most important things to know, right after .......
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteHere is a summary of "where we are"
QE or POMO, doesn't matter, take your pick, everybody's doing it!
mini flash crashes
blog wars
ken fisher getting louder
Gross or El Erian taking over for Summers?
did I mention people are bullish based on QE and POMO?
there was likely some econ data today, I missed it, Id' assume it wasn't good, or was "less bad"
we see evidence of inflation in comic book prices
The bears are 3-0
the market remains a meat grinder
The Situation is on DWTS
I see some wavers busting out the 1158 is where A=C call, brings back memories for me. January feels like a lifetime ago.
ReplyDeleteThis is what I keep thinking, laughing.. i mean, the ride from 2001 to 2009 was a nightmare.. since 2009, it seems like a one way street. and $gold is now 68.4% above it's 50 MA on a long term monthly chart..(which might be a record high since 2001..)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/gold-can-it-really-be-this-easy-2010-9
smsearsBarrons
ReplyDeleterumortrage over m&a is old school. new school: rumortrage over executive departures.
So...put a buy order in for AAPL in at 282.50 and turn it around in 2 min for a quick 5 points? Seriously, where is the SEC?
ReplyDeletethanks, Ben.
ReplyDeleteand I see Barry is getting his TWSWB(The Wall Streeter Who Bores) just desserts...
@Amen (1:37)
ReplyDeleteThat's been the MO...
- repeated attempts to break thru a critical level
- multiple failures
- exhaustion selloff (thinking the number won't be made)
- snap back rebound "oh what the hell - one more try"
- last attempt....
- BREAKTHRU... FINALLY... YAY! WE'RE HEADING TO DOW 36,000!
Doh! Where's the buyers?
Flash Crash... ror
he asked for them Bruce.
ReplyDeleteYep.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, guys and gals, the Ben Affleck movie is excellent. Really. You won't be disappointed.
@ben22 (1:50)
ReplyDeletePretty good synthesis there...
Wanna do the wrap?
AMEN... YOU're FIRED! Ben's in! :-)
but, but, but Jenn, you didn't hold on for $400??!!
ReplyDeleteSalt mine is open, back and forth....
ReplyDeleteBut ben...
ReplyDeletewait a minute... you missed the most important parts...
- Jeff Spicoli video
- Run DMC video
- Al Pacino video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chlawa5Xkac
(1:14)... Attica! Attica!
Forget it...
AMEN... You're back in!
Nope...neither did I buy back in late '08 or early '09 when Jobs was sick and the price was in the 70s...didn't buy on the day of the flash crash when I could see that the 200 acted as nice support too...I seem to have a problem with buying...unless we're talking about puts.
ReplyDeletejennifer,
ReplyDeleteapple is going to $400 no problem, it will never sniff lower prices, ever.
As apple goes, so goes the world
no....the universe!
i was long apple in 09 for a bit, thought i was so smart for selling near a double, I left so much money on the table...
ReplyDeleteIt's Bush's fault.
@ben
ReplyDeleteNo No No No...
It's the "corporations vs. you"'s fault...
But it's Bush's fault that it got that way...
You're going to have to spend more time at TWSWB if you want to become a SERIOUS Manchurian Candidate...
Need to work on you a little...
Jeez - I alreadt have my games PICKED for this weekend (and am starting to do the game writeups on them)...
ReplyDeleteAm I a degenerate or what?
DXY is being abused. I guess Mr. Market is trying to weed out the last 5% who are bullish on it.
ReplyDeleteCV, i know, right?!
ReplyDeleteWell, at least you have PASSION..; )
keep trash talking the dollar.. taunt it out of the gutter. 22.90 on uup.. woo-woo!
ReplyDeletelot better looking A-B-C now though McHappy, the waves required it....
ReplyDeletemrtopstep: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/68cqfb
ReplyDeleteNicTrades
ReplyDeleteHugh Hendry Interview On KingWorld 28Sep2010 http://stock.ly/5s3ctk
@karen (2:17)
ReplyDeletewell if I could apply my football enthusiasm to your ironing needs...
you'd have the most perfectly smooth dishtowels in the state of California...
can't get the hendry thing to work, maybe at home.
ReplyDeleteben.. it is a MUST listen to.. slightly garbled but quite discernible.
ReplyDeleteCV, you doubt my ironing skills? working on pillowcases now : )
ReplyDelete1000x thread count or bust!
ReplyDeletemy rsi on ten minute spx shows negative divergence.. we'll see how that plays out.. would love to dump at the close like yesterday.. baby steps backwards works for me!
ReplyDeleteThe Fed used a WSJ story this morning to try to curtail the front running of the POMOs and to suggest they will do a QE 1.5, primarily in order to prevent the USD from falling far enough for an inflationary breakout in commodities. CRB has made a huge double top.
ReplyDeleteLB doesn't like much here, but he is really starting to like some UUP.
Just posted a list of what we don't like at Macro Man today. Sorely tempted to wade in for some USDJPY and some DZZ. Shorting Treasuries will come later but we are really keen on that too.
Another round of BoJ intervention this week?
We looked at MON today, paltry dividend and awful chart.
Stay away.
little story, friend of my wife's asked me to look over her grams accounts as she was "losing money", which was def. true.
ReplyDeletethere was a note from her grandma on the front of the statement after her convo with her current advisor, here's what it says:
Keep exxon, sell other stocks to switch over to municipal bonds, paying 7% now, do not fluctuate like stocks
then I go deeper into the statement, she was advised to purchase ORNAX, what do you guys think? Does this fluctuate like a stock?
Check the 5 year:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=ornax+
this is what it looks like in retail land folks
"Another round of BoJ intervention this week?"
ReplyDeletewonder if their plan to get it to touch the 50 like this and go back up?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY
ROR
@LB
ReplyDeleteI pretty much concur...
- I like UUP (except for some of the "time oriented" EWI elements that may be hitching themselves to it)
- The thing that sort of has me in limbo is the EOQ... (It almost "feels" like an OPEX week in that respect)...
BOJ intervention... Yeah sure... why not? Lot of good it'll do... It'll probably move the markets in roughly the same way that Michele Obama giving out jars of pickled okra did... ROR
A lot of adwisors are InwestTools.
ReplyDeleteLB has never liked cash so much as today. Except in 2008.
We aren't short stocks but we ain't buying here. We hate govies.
Something is going to happen in October, we like sitting in cash.
Remember that a BTE jobs number will be bad for many stocks.
Once Bucky gets stronger, the yen will be absolutely pounded.
ReplyDeleteTreasuries and JGBs are going to take a beating as well.
There will be money to be made shorting JPY, CAD and even AUD.
Gold, silver, ZAR, EUR, they are all going to be beaten with a big stick.
1150 on tap...
ReplyDeleteClose to "Jumping the Shark"...
But CV had that base covered back in March (per today's thread)...
The other blogs are playing "catch-up" (they're cute to have around tho)...
indices holding synchronicity in their % up as usual.. something only algos can do : )
ReplyDeletepls remind me which color pill i'm supposed to take so I can get on the good side of the matrix.
for once, crude isn't following the spx.. or so it seems.
next time i short gold.. you all need to go 300% long.. : )
ReplyDeleteoh no way! $spx tagged 1150 even.. that can't last.. buy quick for the next burst up.
ReplyDeleteI took a screen snapshot of 1150...
ReplyDeleteJust in case it doesn't hold...
Now that's odd. The SPX kept moving lower while TICKS were moving higher.
ReplyDeleteShorted EURUSD into the close. Nothing big, and it's a day trip.
ReplyDeleteNot brave enough to short gold yet. But it is coming. EURUSD will weaken before JPY does. The trade I like best is shorting Ts later on in the week. I was a day early selling AGG/LQD but I have one more tranche to unload.
This is an odd market for sure, and I am long equities...
Ornax -- one star from Morningstar...that's quite an accomplishment. Love the 42.75% holdings in category "other"...as in not govies, not any type of "A" or "B"...lovely. Oh, yeah, they like long term paper too. But it pays 7% fed tax free!
ReplyDeleteGap up and thru 1150 tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteLB.. thru what vehicle did you short EURUSD? sounds good to me but I don't know how to do it ; (
ReplyDeleteKaren -- they aren't terribly sophisticated, but there's always FXE and DRR.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI think the ticker symbol is ...JCTBLOWME
But I'll have to check...
Oh, Jennifer@ 4:05, did you have to wreck my day?? LOL
ReplyDeleteDid your diamond turn up, btw?? hoping so..
from an Article floating around in web land:
ReplyDeleteSeptember 28, 2010 – NEoWave Institute’s Glenn Neely, internationally regarded as an
Elliott Wave innovator and creator of NEoWave technology, believes the S&P’s near future is surprisingly positive with a probable gain of 75-100 points.
“The S&P will continue to move up or sideways for the next two-to-three months. The market has transitioned into a General Predictability phase, based on NEoWave principles, so I’m now able to map behavior for the rest of this year,” Neely says. This bullish market behavior may take many by surprise, he explains, given the market typically declines in October. “By late 2010/early 2011, the S&P will closely approach – or exceed – the April 2010 high. As a result of increasing valuation, I expect economic conditions to improve for the rest of this year,” Neely says.
Neely built this short-term bullish forecast on his recent, on-target S&P predictions in August and September 2010.
Karen -- thanks, but no. I haven't combed thru the vacuum cleaner bag yet since we had houseguests, but if it isn't there I'm giving up. Made everyone chew their dinnners and desserts very carefully in case it was in the food...
ReplyDeleteJenn, I didn't know about DRR.. thanks for that tip!
ReplyDeleteOf course, I track FXE but I can't short it because I don't have a margin account.. if it even is shortable.. i wouldn't know..
re: MStar rankings,
ReplyDeleteI believe those star ratings are heavily weighted toward teh first 5 or 10 years of fund performance, so they can end up being misleading, i used to have a ton of notes bout the star rating process but i cannot find them anymore.
I used to run these funnels to look for 3 star funds with new managers that had a track record somewhere else, it seemed to "work" but we were in a bull market at the time, so I could have picked most equity funds and made a + return.
in closing though, ORNAX is a giant POS, and not appropriate for grandmothers
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chile-peso-gains-as-industrial-output-climbs-2010-09-28?reflink=MW_news_stmp
ReplyDeleteChile peso rises as industrial output jumps
CV @ 4:10.. I did LOL.. : )
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteI used EUO. It is a small position and it is a day trip for me.
Sometimes I test these trades out before I get seriously into them.
Been hating EURUSD for a while, but have held off trading until now.
Ben,
It's fine to hold JNK if you know what it is, but I object to people selling "low risk, high reward" vehicles as though they are cream puffs.
Amazing to watch equities and treasuries have such a stellar month.
ReplyDeleteI can't see anything attractive at these levels. I'll probably sit in cash or dabble in utilities.
Macro Man very funny today on AUDUSD - a great Elvis Costello song. Polemic and LB are a similar age, I think, the musical tastes are similar.
ReplyDeleteI posted that MacroMan sing along first thing this morning.. agree!
ReplyDeleteEUO looks interesting.. thanks for that.
Leftback,
ReplyDeleteI dare you, no, I double dog dare you, to find at least one retail investor and one retail FA before the end of the year that can tell you the positions held in a mutual fund (all of them, not the top 10 listed on a 90 day old fund report), I don't care what fund, it can be any fund.
Don't be too shocked if you can't find anyone.
Also, considering Opp had one of their HY funds tank about 90% in 2008, I'm skeptical the managers even understand exactly what they hold, wouldn't be the first time.
Well, thanks all.. see you later this evening or in the morning!
ReplyDeleteDon't short this market into EoQ while PMs are still making the number on which their bonus depends !!
ReplyDeleteI did short EURUSD into the close.
MON is a piece of sh*t. We looked hard at this today.
Paltry dividend, high P/E and an awful chart.
Going lower once the commodity bubble bursts.
Sit tight, there will be opportunities ahead. There will be selling in October, but will it be equities, commodities or bonds?
The suspense is killing me.
I think in 2008, Ben, all managers were too busy doing blow off the arse of Ukrainian escorts to have a clue what was in their portfolios. Things are a little more circumspect now.
"Things are a little more circumspect now."
ReplyDeletebwahahahah, hilarious....in mutual funds? you have to be kidding me, even if they were, the VAST MAJORITY of funds are long only...for starters.
You have some buddies in hedgie land yes? I wouldn't compare them to people that operate in mutual fund universe.
If you'd like me to send some white papers over for you to review exactly what I'm talking about I'll be happy to dig a few up for you, Eaton Vance and their junk and high yield muni push comes to mind, then I can show you how EANAX generates returns using an extremely dangerous strategy the promote as 'safe' to investors. I've spoken directly to several managers this year, I believe what you just said couldn't be further from the truth. In fact, one of them remarked to me in May "sometimes you close your eyes and buy"
is it going to take an insane upside shocker in GDP this week to finally bust up through 1150?
ReplyDeletedamn any revisions, react bitchez.
The Bond Report 9.28.10
ReplyDeleteThe EoQ beckons. Performance anxiety reigns on the Street as fixed income managers bought everything in sight. There are bonuses, bragging rights, Ukrainian escorts and lines of blow to compete for....
Greed is Blind.
Corpies: LQD 0.18%; AGG 0.24%; JNK 0.20%; HYG 0.15%;
Govies: TLT 0.68%; IEI 0.20%; TIP 0.70%
Hedgies: TBT -1.34%
We enjoyed the show for the last few days, and sold another tranche of our fixed income, selling AGG and LQD. We are now down from a high of near 50% bonds to something closer to 17%, of which most is now JNK, and zero is Treasuries. We are close to shorting TLT, very close.
It is possible that the low in TNX is not in yet, and that the JPY and TLT will continue to rally on as late-comers join the party. We may find that we have left money on the table. But we have booked some good profits this year in bonds and have largely eliminated interest rate and economic recovery risk from our portfolio.
We prefer to seek risk-free reward at the expense of reward-free risk. This is how we roll.
also, re: funds, I have a fairly awesome MStar tool where I can get current info on any fund, fund managers are herding like never before, thats what it shows, if you look at any large cap fund you'll see near identical holdings in the top 20 across the board.....how about the all time record low levels of cash in funds right now....is that prudent, is it literally time to be "all-in"?
ReplyDeleteblended bond funds have added tons of junk over the last several months in the grab for yield, right into the all time record high of junk bond issuance I've also seen several of these funds that have been short govies all year long, some "alternative funds" have been big euro bulls, in fact, they bought a lot of those positions when trade-futures was showing over 90% bulls on the euro and less than 5% bulls on the dollar.
mutual funders are the biggest tools ever, aint a thing changed there.
ben,
ReplyDeleteYour observations from the trenches are sobering, and valuable !!
leftback,
ReplyDeletemy head spins daily man, I think you would be correct in saying hedgies are probably way more careful than they used to be about what they own, they almost have to be with all the scrutiny they came under....funds didn't really retract their long term message after 08 though, it's still buy and hold and nobody can time the market and nobody saw it coming, especially the "value" guys....and so hopefully the death of that industry we'll get to see in the not too distant future, there shouldn't be more mutual funds than there are individual stocks
Ben
ReplyDeleteWe are all Hedge Funds now.... it's a perilous place to be a Macro HF, b/c they have to advertise a simplistic world view "death of govvies", "DGDF", "hard assets", "leveraged distressed MBS". When you are a one trick pony with leverage, a bad month can take you out.
Meanwhile stodgy old LB rolls along with his mixed low volatility portfolio, ramping in and out by a 1-2% a day... but makes money.
"We are all Hedge Funds now"
ReplyDelete+1