(from ZH)
"EURCHF has just taken out all stops as it plunged by almost 60 pips in the span of a few minutes as Japan opens... Which opened about 2% down... Which goes to show just the idiocy levels of our markets - there was nothing incremental from last night's BoJ decision, so the Nikkei should have been dropping then. But instead it decided to trade way higher and only plunge once Made In New York Atari algos told it it was safe to plunge.
Either way, set your alarm clocks to around 5 am, which is when the SNB tends to intervene most often, and have those upside EURCHF stops ready, as the pair is wound so tight it is just waiting for the Hildebrand match: the (very temporary) bounce, which will cost the SNB another CHF10 billion will likely send the CHF about 150-200 pips lower, only to retrace all losses imminently."
In any case... It's not NOTHING... But amongst Hindenburg Omens, Cardinal Crosses, Death Crosses, 200MA tickdowns, PPT "open market" activity... It's just AMAZING to me how this RASPUTIN of a market manages to skip along in it's "DL" like state of calm, and even (as was the case this past weekend), manage to convince bears that they should be COVERING and COWERING in the corner...
This is TWO DAYS IN A ROW that CV is featuring "Deep Purple" on this blog... Frankly, I hadn't expected to do so yesterday... But Monday (and, in fact, THIS WHOLE SUMMER has got me wondering)... Which is... Frankly... a state I've been in for more than 18 months... But delay after delay beats even a resolute soul down... After all, CV doesn't enjoy the luxury of vacationing & "kickin' it with the lap dogs" as others seem to have mastered the art of...
My retort to the tourists & lapdoggers of the world...
We all came out to Montreux...
On the Lake Geneva shoreline...
To make records with a mobile
We didn't have much time...
Frank Zappa and the Mothers...
Were at the best place around...
But some stupid with a flare gun
Burned the place to the ground...
They burned down the gamblin' house,
It died with an awful sound...
And Funky Claude was running in and out
Pulling kids out the ground...
When it all was over
We had to find another place...
But Swiss time was running out
It seemed that we would lose the race...
Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky, Smoke on the water...
We ended up at the Grand Hotel
It was empty cold and bare...
But with the Rolling truck Stones thing just outside
Making our music there...
With a few red lights and a few old beds
W
e made a place to sweat...
No matter what we get out of this...
I know, I know we'll never forget...
Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky... Smoke on the water...
This was too much!! can't get the sound loud enough : )
ReplyDeleteThe foto captions are perfect !!!
CV.. you might have out done yourself this time.. (I wish I could share this site! LOL)
Andy, "As that f-tard Denise Garterman might say: "Do more of which is working and less of which is not."" I'm wincing..
"Smoke on the Water"
ReplyDeleteBack in the 70's, I listened to that song many, many times.
Haven't heard it since (until today).
Unexpectedly collapsing bitchez!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-removes-borrowing-cap-rescue-facilities-anticipation-europe-crisis-20-us-prepares-print-
IMF Removes Borrowing Cap On Rescue Facilities, In Anticipation Of Europe Crisis 2.0; US Prepares To Print Fresh Trillions In "Rescue" Paper
DL, where have you been?!
ReplyDeleteWeekly 3LB info
ReplyDeleteYen futures
trend=up
0.01163 mid, 0.1154 rev
FXY
trend=up
115.14 mid, 114.29 rev
*Daily 3LB has reversed down. Confirmation is a close below 115.99.
XDN
trend=up
116.34 mid, 115.50 rev
Prior posts bitchez...
ReplyDeleteFriday:
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/08/sunday-evening-post_29.html?showComment=1283198555381#c4971845514041235348
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/08/amenras-corner_27.html?showComment=1282946282247#c3150486883247151153
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/08/amenras-corner_27.html?showComment=1282953449280#c5338047959772298581
Monday:
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/08/sunday-evening-post_29.html?showComment=1283198555381#c4971845514041235348
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/08/sunday-evening-post_29.html?showComment=1283189812576#c778036455066896802
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/08/sunday-evening-post_29.html?showComment=1283180168197#c7864760861013825185
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/08/sunday-evening-post_29.html?showComment=1283188615491#c8715004382276783978
Karen @ 11:33
ReplyDeleteI have been near a computer each of the last several days. I've read many of the comments, but haven't been much in the mood to "converse".
Hello all, Bertie logging in after a week's absence. We still don't have a government here in Oz, but we're a pretty laid back lot so it doesn't really matter.
ReplyDeleteBeen a bit busy lately, but kicking back with a microbrew beer this evening - preparatory, I would expect, to opening a red. I am able to advise CV that I have taken on board his exhortation to stockpile alcohol in readiness for the day of reckoning hehe.
Dunno if I ever mentioned that I was raised in one of those funny rightwing christian groups - anyway, the "last days" motif is bread and butter to them I can tell you!
Like DL, I have kept up with the commentary but didn't have anything to report... still don't actually, but after the first beer it doesn't really seem to matter ha.
ReplyDeleteBertie
Well I can't ramble away here all night (just looking at the timestamp of 4.30am on my posts) so I'll bid all you folks happy trading tonight (tomorrow).
ReplyDeletePlease make shitloads of money, I love it when you guys have a win.
Maybe one day even I will put on a trade... then look out!!!
Bertie
@
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
Like DL, I have kept up with the commentary but didn't have anything to report...
Ditto here, though I must say that given the Number of comments, catching up with everything is getting tougher.
2 days of clean steady moves in the currencies. Asia is following up with Red all around. Copper though still hanging on.
What could go wrong here?
Prashant
We were paying attention last night, CV. But mostly we were sleeping.
ReplyDeleteI understand Ken Fisher is still bullish..
ReplyDelete"At the December [2008] meeting, it was Romer’s job to explain just how bad the economy was likely to get. “David Axelrod said we have to have a ‘holy-shit moment,’ ” she began. “Well, Mr. President, this is your ‘holy-shit moment.’ It’s worse than we thought.” She gave a short tutorial about what happens to an economy during a depression, what happened during previous severe recessions, and what could happen if the Administration didn’t act. She showed PowerPoint slides emphasizing that the situation would require a bold government response."
ReplyDelete...From CR today...Mizz Romer sounds like she was raised in the south...
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a7wo8QEWSvOw
ReplyDeleteU.S. Auto Sales May Hit 28-Year Low in August as Discounts Flop
...Weren't auto sales the only "strong" component last month? August could have some very very interesting numbers...
@Bertie...
ReplyDelete"anyway, the "last days" motif is bread and butter to them I can tell you!"
---
How ironic...
Here, it's BREAD & CIRCUSES
@Bruce (7:26)
ReplyDelete"U.S. Auto Sales May Hit 28-Year Low in August as Discounts Flop"
---
So... A quick rundown for September... We're on...
- QE 1.5
- Foreclosure Prevention 3
- Unemployment Extension 99
- FINREG 1
- And Cash for Clunkers 2, should be next
Gee, all I recall about 7 neck Romer is that we were simply in the "old cyclical", all is well,.... perhaps it was the constant lying that made her leave.
ReplyDeleteI'd take any size on the downside today as an ominous sign, another 90% down day yesterday so you'd normally expect a bounce back but as of this morning there's no light on that front, long day ahead of course.
regarding sentiment, seems a lot of buzz on the web about how "bearish" everyone is, i.o.w, lots of people using sentiment indicators in isolation and in an absolute manner. Not smart imo, for starters keep in mind that the investment community has, in general, remained bullish during the entirety of the secular bear market that started in 2000, the herd turns and eventually runs the correct way, at least for a while....
and yes, size would involve busting the support we keep bouncing off of, clean break of the 1040's....
ReplyDeletelike butta....on Coffee Talk
What used to be KOOL-ADE is about to become...
ReplyDelete"Cool... AID!"
@ben22
ReplyDeleteIf we break chart support at 1040... It's likely that we beeline it straight down to 1010...
I'm seeing some ways that the charts could produce interim support levels around 1028-ish, and of course... 1025 would "split the difference" between 1010 and 1040 (essentially - buying some time)...
C,
ReplyDeleteyeah, we'll see if we can actually bust it and then yes you'd think to see 1010 pretty quick if we can, would really like to see some volume but that's probably not in the cards this week. I still expect an up close after yesterday but I'm only watching this week, going to be tough short term trading.
Pivots:
http://www.pivotfarm.com/pivot-points.php
Silver and Gold, both spiking up.
ReplyDeleteAlphahorn points out that today is day 89 since the april high. He argues that today will mark a short term bottom.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-31/hon-hai-foxconn-international-shares-tumble-after-earnings-miss-estimates.html
ReplyDeleteHon Hai, Foxconn International Shares Tumble After Earnings Miss Estimates
---
Jump you f***ers... literally!
Someone tell me why I thought VXX was a good idea? The VIX was up 8% yesterday, VXX...well, not so much.
ReplyDeletePPT doing its job in the premarket
ReplyDeleteJennifer,
ReplyDeletedon't feel too bad, I had a bad go with VXX, I lost $3,500 on it with a bad trade, but even without a bad trade that thing is no good.
My main issue with the 89 day call is where do you start to measure and how accurate has that cycle been? Not sure if you have a link for what you are reading? tomorrow is 90 days from the 4/26 top, but 4/23 had the highest close making today day 90. otoh, yesterday was 60 days from the July 1 low, so I don't think it's so clear from daily cycles that this is a bottom, just that we are in a very crucial time frame.
Nic's chart she shared last week painted similar outcome/confusion, we are going to have a sharp break in one direction or the other soon....wish I knew which way it was going to be!
morning, all! think i just turned my faz in on that limit sell.. that's all I wanted. trying to catch up on above posts.. cursing gold and vxx : )
ReplyDelete@b22
ReplyDeletewe are going to have a sharp break in one direction or the other soon....wish I knew which way it was going to be!
---
Let me take a hack at that...
It'll be in BOTH directions...
CV, what are all those prior posts you posted ???
ReplyDeletemrtopstep- $ES_F SPU retesting the short term .786 1044.85 for now - A break of this level would likely test the .786 of the longer move at 1029.50. After holding below the 1066.50 level yesterday during day session (50% of retrace) SPU remains negative short term. 1032.50 is day session support. Emini $NQ_F fib levels are cleaner and #DOW has 9850
ReplyDeleteI'm not really down with the idea that we find ourselves in a trading range, minority view I realize, but with all the sizeable bets on volatility in the options pits over the last several months I'm highly skeptical of anything range bound during September and October.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteNothing important...
some interesting bits from 24/7-
ReplyDeleteThere is an amazing number for August: $100 BILLION! That is how much has been announced for the month of August between share buybacks and acquistion money in the system.
So much for big industry and wind power... Deere (DE) sold its wind unit to Exelon (EXC) for about $900 million.
And another two bits of economic disappointment... First is the back-to-school season retail sales posting poor results. Turns out that movie sales stank as well, with what may be 10-year-plus lows.
@ben22
ReplyDeleteI think by October we'll be in a trading range between 1039.83 and 1039.70...
The HFT's will battle it out in that hallowed ground...
FWIW...
ReplyDeleteThe 61.8% FIBO from 1039.83 back to 1039.70 is 1039.74966...
So that's where you better keep your STOPS...
If it breaks that... It's CURTAINS... (all the way down to 1039.69 - where a new trading range will be established)...
zerohedge
ReplyDeleteNew post: Chicago PMI Misses Expectations, Plunges From Prior Print... Futures Surge http://tinyurl.com/36hqdrq
naturally
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI think there was fear that something might have come in under 50...
So when that was averted, probably some hedges were taken off...
The effect shouldn't last too long...
CV's biggest question...
ReplyDeleteCan we close the month under 1030?
BreakingNews
ReplyDeleteAt least eight killed when Molotov cocktails thrown into bar in Cancun, officials say - Radio France International http://bit.ly/b19h1x
CV, you have me choking on my coffee! selling my faz at 17:35 and pocketing a measly +2k is looking brilliant.. i need to get out of my shorts and hit the streets to make a living.. laughing.
ReplyDelete... and the molotov cocktail, is the local drink...
ReplyDeleteAnd all she wants to do is dance...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgR_ln1w1vw
so, do you all realize how WILD mex is now? If you are not a missing federale chief you are a fired one..
ReplyDeleteDOH...
ReplyDeleteLook at the current 60 minute candle on SLV
somebody must be getting their ass handed to them on that the past 5 days...
ReplyDeletewe've paused right at the bottom of the big trend-line from the march 09 lows....bulls can't have it just go sideways the rest of the week
ReplyDeleteBen22 if you look at US investor sentiment then a break lower is looking less and less likely without a good squeeze first
ReplyDeleteI loathe consumer confidence days, a completely meaningless number if there ever was one.
ReplyDelete@ben22 (10:18)
ReplyDeleteYeah... If you look at that trendline from a weekly perspective, and take it up a deviation, it's basically the type of set-up where the market flash crashed back in May...
Consumer Confidence = "I feel so much better now that I've found out that none of my neighbors are paying their mortgages or credit cards"...
ReplyDeletePeggy Joseph for Treasury Secretary...
Nic,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you, it would seem the clearest swing right now was to buy the 1040 today long, but I'd be taking gains quick had I done so.
I'm just sitting small short on puts that expire ini 2011, no reason to get more short right now, and I've got little interest in trading longs at the moment due to the risk/reward on the time frames I trade.
reality.. the 1010.91 to 1039.70 uptrend was broken this week.. (the previous power uptrend line was broken 2 weeks ago.) that said, there is always the possibility that a new uptrend line is established at this week's low.. but tapping 1040 so many times makes this a low probability.
ReplyDeleteI do have some september puts as well, but very little, I'm willing to lose all that I put in that trade.
ReplyDeletei simply cannot get thru this ECRI article, but if anyone else cares to give it a try:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/scientistic-fiction/
problem bank list climbs to highest level since 1992 ??
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2010/08/31/news/companies/fdic_problem_bank_list/index.htm
My view is we get a negative weekly inside bar. NFP is not likely to be pretty. Next week the real moves could start so sitting on my hands mostly this week.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2H.H4kCXvMw
ReplyDeleteAug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Titan Capital Group LLC, whose flagship volatility fund rose 21.6 percent as stocks tumbled in May, has raised bets on extreme market moves because investors’ views on the economic outlook have polarized.
"The financial system is riskier than it was before the 2008 crisis that led the U.S. economy to the worst contraction since the Great Depression, said Taleb, a professor at New York University who advises Santa Monica, California-based Universa Investments LP, a fund that bets on extreme market moves."
ReplyDeletesentiment/herding
ReplyDeletekeep in mind the evolutionary advantage of herding:
there are a lot of folks turning bearish now, no doubt about it, however, when looking at this from a bigger perspective it'd do us well to keep in mind that the net has in fact stayed very bullish over the last decade, at some points all time record levels of bulls, despite it being the worst decade for US stock performance....in reality since 2000 we should have been seeing all kinds of record sentiment on the bearish side. From a wave/socionomics perspective what is happening right now with sentiment is exactly in line with the view that the secular bear market likely has several more years before it is over, in the latter stages of this bear market it makes sense that a negative sentiment would prevail.
AAII and many of the others date back to the late 80's.....i.o.w, they've been around primarily for the largest bull market ever.
Read them accordingly.
bac set another new 52 week low today.. wow..
ReplyDeletethe move up today has a corrective look imo.
ReplyDeleteandy's b?
a more complex X wave perhaps?
maybe the wave four some have?
doubtful it's part of the nested 1-2's EWI continues to publish every other day.....
@Nic
ReplyDeleteMy view is we get a negative weekly inside bar. NFP is not likely to be pretty. Next week the real moves could start so sitting on my hands mostly this week.
---
Logically - that looks correct... My problem is that when something "looks" fairly obvious, then I'm probably overlooking something...
My mental checklist goes as follows:
- 1040 is trying to hold as support (although it's getting more laughable with each attempt).
- the bounces are getting shallower & shallower.
- It's as if... since everyone is on vacation... It's STALLING (or trying to create the illusion of stalling).
- Technicals are oversold (short term) as well as sentiment, but one would have to be nuts to go all in long here. It seems only ALGOS want to do so.
- Lastly... If we continue to move sideways throughout the week... That will be BEARISH...
Bulls have to "giddyup" here...
OR
Next week (where the market should sell off), might do a total FAKEOUT and go up...
OR
Someone will jump the gun this week and make a move while people are snoozing...
I wonder how John Paulson feels about that one, karen?
ReplyDeletePIMCO
ReplyDeleteMcCulley: When deflationary risk increases, the central bank should be more cooperative with the fiscal authority.
BreakingNews
Update on Mexican bar killings: Bar is outside of Cancun hotel zone, frequented by locals; 10 armed men entered and burned it down - NBC
TLT "climbing the wall of worry". Will it make a lower high or keep on chugging past the previous high?
ReplyDeleteWell whichever way we go it is clear we have had a long summer of consolidation and we are setting up for big moves this fall. One way or another.
ReplyDeleteWhen we hear the chorus of former executives and regulators exclaim that the crisis was "impossible to see coming”, while at the same time walking away with millions or going on to greater levels of responsibility in government, it is both puzzling and demoralizing. It is easy to see why so many people have concluded that the entire system is rigged.
ReplyDeletehttp://cache.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2010/08/Third-Point-Q2-2010-Investor-Letter.pdf
This is good.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/paul-farrell-expects-no-recovery-until-end-obamas-second-term-if-he-gets-reelected
A super slow-mo drip, drip, drip ahead?
Talked with my builder friend who built my barn this weekend. He'd been down to three men this spring, but now has a crew of 10. Before the housing bubble burst had a crew of 15.
ReplyDeleteI thought this was good news, but he said not so. That even though he's getting work, you have to bid the absolute lowest you can manage to bid without a loss in order to get any work. He said that winters here were always tough, but that you made enough profit in the summer to get through the winter. Not this year. But he's busier that nearly any of the other local builders...for one thing he's quite humble and very honest.
He thinks this winter is going to be awful.
the ECRI article at Barry's....more wasted time there, I want my 10 minutes back.
ReplyDeleteToday was the 3rd test of 1041.83 since last Wednesday. Either it finally fails or we're heading back to 1110.02.
ReplyDeleteben, funny.. makes me feel better, tho : )
ReplyDeleteabout 15 min ago: alaidi said, dont try to make fundamental sense out of the last 30 mins and next 60 mins
Wall Street may pay bonuses early to dodge Bush tax cut expiration.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/31/hurryup-bonuses_n_699881.html
thanks, AR, that was most helpful, not! LOL..
ReplyDeleteWall Street may pay bonuses early to dodge a big equity crash !!
ReplyDeleteLOL... but what if it doesn't happen? What if there is no
HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER™ this year?
@Manny/Ben/Andy/2s2b/ahab
ReplyDeleteI still need to fill out the remaining teams for FF...
Basically, I can't reschedule the draft for tonight... But I can let it go off as AUTO, then set a new draft date & time...
I'll notify you guys (as you'll have to re-register your teams)...
B in T:
ReplyDeleteBuilders still working and making a living, but nail gun guys not buying $1M houses sounds like the New Normal to me.... this is OK, right?
naufalsanaullah
ReplyDeleteGBP is funding currency for risk right now-- if you want to get long risk go short $GBPAUD rather than long $AUDJPY
I highly doubt Wall St. is the only industry taking payment this year rather than next due to tax laws.... that'd likely be ALL industries doing this in one way or another.
ReplyDeleteOh, and when the tax laws do expire...there's this thing called deferred compensation.
The middle class gets the shaft with the current tax laws and they'll get the shaft with any new one's too. Nothing new here.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteAs it stands right now, the LD (from 1220) would come in around 1103...
It would have to take out that LD to get to 1110...
CV,
ReplyDeleteOk, just let me know what we have to do, I'm out of town Thursday - Sunday later this week.
Only night I know I can't do next week is Tuesday, have another draft that night.
Maybe I'll have to try for next Wednesday night...
ReplyDeleteBut that's dicey (because the season starts on Thursday)...
Monday is Labor Day...
You guys aren't giving me many alternatives...
this guy seems good.. http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-blogs/1250/
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDeleteupbeat cons con. led #VIX to new lows, $ES_F buy stops & buy prgrams, waitin 4 nxt opp more stps? above 1054 area
I can do Monday...we've got very little time to get enough people at this point though. Should be able to do sunday night, just not sure when I'll get home.
ReplyDeleteConfidence was MORE CONFIDENT than expected.
ReplyDeleteGasoline prices, that's all it is.
LB is not Jeff Gundlach, but he is a sound bond guy. He called for a 2.5% 10y in June and now is reducing his holdings of Treasuries, and we concur.
ReplyDeleteGundlach Reducing Treasuries
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aqJz7mznvsbk&pos=13
ReplyDeleteToyota Prius Augurs Collapse in Japan’s Auto Sales
Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Prius hybrid has spearheaded sales growth for Toyota Motor Corp. in Japan for more than a year, helped by government subsidies. The model will likely bear the brunt of plunging demand as the support ends.
“A collapse in sales is unavoidable,” said Hiromi Inoue, the new-car sales chief for Tokyo Toyopet Motor Sales Co. “The daily pace of orders for the Prius is already dropping. We are bracing ourselves for the coming crisis.”
We can't do tomorrow night, cv?
ReplyDelete@ben
ReplyDeleteThere's another league that I've been in for a few years that they're having trouble getting organized this year...
I'm thinking I can get 3-4 players from that to migrate over...
Sunday is the only day I CAN'T do because I'm in another draft... That's assuming we did it in the evening...
I could schedule a MORNING if anyone would want to try that... (which is what we did last year)...
@Manny
ReplyDeleteMy only problem with tomorrow night would be that I need 4 more teams locked in...
LB:
ReplyDeleteUh, Gundlach and Putin could be identical twins. Faces are amazingly similar.
sorry man I'd offer to find some people for us but everyone I know that plays is already somewhere else.
ReplyDeleteI might be able to get my father in law in there if we really need an extra.
Also, i could make tomorrow night work for draft if we do that 9:30 time again.
I see. I could do a morning if that works everyone else. Next Tuesday - Thursday I'm toast though.
ReplyDelete@ben
ReplyDeleteI'm checking with some of the guys that I'm in other leagues with that I know run multiple teams...
We'll get it worked out one way or another...
It was easier last year because it was FREE... The thought of losing $100 to a thief like CV seems pretty scary to some :-)...
bizarre: Lee Ainslie, a hedge fund manager, has sold all of his shares in Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) and used the funds to begin investing in Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C) during the second quarter, according to media reports.
ReplyDeleteAinslie’s Maverick Capital, along with a number of hedge funds, moved funds away from Bank of America and into Citigroup during the quarter, suggesting a shift in fortune for the two financial behemoths.
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/08/31/hedge-fund-sells-bank-of-america-corp-nyse-bac-shares-for-citigroup-inc-nyse-c/
@karen (12:10)
ReplyDeleteSo let's see...
In 2008... It was Bear, Lehman, and Merrill Lynch that got gobbled up and fed to the wolves...
Guess what's on the "dessert menu" for 2010?
read this! not done yet myself.. "Was the Flash Crash Rigged?"
ReplyDeletehttp://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204304404575449930920336058.html
Chops for lunch, side of slow ...
ReplyDeleteInteresting: The brokerage arm of Bloomberg, the news and market data company, has reached agreement with an undisclosed number of operators of “dark pool” trading venues that will allow its asset manager and hedge fund customers to see in “real time” how their trades have been matched.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e76ee5ea-b3bc-11df-81aa-00144feabdc0.html
So I figured it out...
ReplyDeleteIf you take the LD (from 1220) and extend it thru the most recent high... That LD would hit 1040 on or around December 1st... (12+1=13)
There are about 61.8 trading days left until then...
The SPX has been held up by the PPT 3x now (on the average of once every 13 trading hours (or two days)...
So I figure we're due for about 31 more bounces off of 1040...
Making it a nice "34" fibo number of bounces... before it's DECISION TIME...
CV is taking FIBO to a whole different level folks!
crude drop accelerating..
ReplyDeletedollar at hod
ReplyDeletewonder what the fomc minutes will do to this tape.. sighing..
ReplyDelete@karen (12:19)
ReplyDeletefrom article "It's programming 101," he declares."
To me... It sounds more like RACKETEERING 101...
This is it people... This is the EVOLUTION of the human race (and why our future is so bright & rosy)... We keep thinking of ever more clever ways to STEAL from each other...
Don't you love FREE MARKET CAPITALISM?
"wonder what the fomc minutes will do to this tape"
ReplyDelete---
Let me take a wild guess... It'll knock it down to 1039.84...
fascinating! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/31/mike-wise-suspended-from-_n_700593.html
ReplyDeleteOn Monday, Wise tweeted that suspended Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger would be suspended for five games instead of the six games he had initially been suspended for.
"As part of a bit on my show today, I tried to test the accuracy of social media reporting. Probably not the best way to go about experiment," he tweeted. "But in the end, it proved two things: 1. I was right about nobody checking facts or sourcing and 2. I'm an idiot. Apologies to all involved," he added.
Mike Wise = "ain't so much"
ReplyDeletetopstep
ReplyDelete$ED_F #futures edz11 hourly chart The edz11 broke below its longer term bull trend line last week as #Libor worries prompted a long liquidation. The rally since then has taken the market back up to the underside of the broken long term bull trend line and it looks like we may be entering a more drawn out corrective phase. We like buying the short dec 9900-9875 put spread 3.5-4.5 right now with futures at 9918 a retest of the shorter term support line around 9905-9907 could be produced by any stronger than expected economic data over the next couple days. This looks like a good risk / reward hedge to us. $$
yeah I figured everyone would be buzzing about that trendline break.
ReplyDeleteWe'll probably stick all over it the rest of the week, just long enough to bother everyone that's trying to take a side.
delays bitchez!
ReplyDeletePIMCO
ReplyDeleteGross: Stimulus policy should be directed more toward infrastructure & green energy instead of consumption, which prior programs target.
Green energy - higher dollar.
ReplyDeleteConsumption - lower dollar.
Greenback - former dollar
ReplyDeleteModerate Drinking Beneficial: Karen to Live For Ever
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=acmISGJA4ihg
ReplyDeleteAug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Republicans hold an unprecedented lead of 10 percentage points over Democrats ahead of the November midterm elections, indicating potentially “significant gains” for the party in Congress, according to a newGallup poll.
...Not much interesting about this, but:
"White House spokesman Robert Gibbs, when asked about the poll on ABC’s “Good Morning America,” said Democrats are running “strong candidates across the board in House and Senate races” he thinks that Democrats will retain control of the House and Senate.
That’s a change from his comments in a July 11 interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” when he said Democrats could lose their House majority in the midterm elections."
...I think someone was introduced to the woodshed.....
Gibbs is an a**hole. His comments about the criticism of Obama from the blogosphere and what remains of the intellectual left were asinine.
ReplyDeleteLefty:
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
so what's the real consensus?
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ready-for-September-Stocks-cnbc-3264666515.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
good luck with that
and
we are still in a secular bear market
btw.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/i-see-a-pattern-forming-in-sp500-and-so-should-you/
ReplyDeleteLB @ 1:41, thanks for that, laughing.. i've got 2 mini-watermelons cut and drizzled in fresh lime juice refrigerating..
ReplyDeleteIn contrast to today's meaning consumer sentiment survey:
ReplyDeletePoll: Most Small-Business Owners Worrying About Weak Economy
1:56 PM ET 8/31/10 | Dow Jones
More than 85% of small-business owners are worried about a double-dip recession, according to the latest quarterly survey by banking giant Citigroup Inc. (C).
FOMC minutes.. what drugs are they on? !
ReplyDeleteModerate Drinking Beneficial...
ReplyDeleteEconomic Stimulus for Research bitchez!
@ben22 (1:53)
ReplyDelete"Even with September's reputation as the stock market's worst month, investors may be forced to focus on equities as the bond rally nears exhaustion."
3 letters... JGB
Muni yields are very very low. Risk is multiplying, here. Default risk is rising and interest rate risk must be considered a factor.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ahuYgT2wKNII
C,
ReplyDeleteAgreed in a way, but:
1) This PHASE of the bond rally may be over.
2) Nothing moves in a straight line.
3) The FED may really end up being more aggressive than BoJ
4) US savings may never reach Japanese levels
5) Our deficit may prevent a truly Japanese outcome.
"More than 85% of small-business owners are worried about a double-dip recession, according to the latest quarterly survey by banking giant Citigroup Inc."
ReplyDeleteAww shucks... That's where the jobs come from right?
Why doesn't Obama do a little "delegation"... He could start a whole new Cabinet Department for all the ASS KICKING he needs to do and hire about 10,000...
Anybody up for the position of "Secretary of Ass Kickers"?...
Ass Kicking Czar?
@LB
ReplyDeleteyou had me at "savings"...
muni's would seem like an insane bet here, to me they would anyway, would much rather buy junk. much better div as left just pointed out and am really not in the camp that says between the two you are taking more risk in junk than you are in muni's, if anything it's the other way around from where I sit.
ReplyDeleteon consumer confidence if you smooth it out you basically see that the measurement hasn't changed at really in over a year. sounds like a new normal where nobody really knows the deal and we float along in some suspended state of confusion.
ReplyDeletethat said, this measurement outside of any knee jerk reaction means exactly zippo for the market, and spare me that we rallied on it today, we had a 90% down day yesterday, which almost always triggers a rally in stocks the following day or for several days after, regardless of the news.
@LB
ReplyDeleteAll I can say is this...
At this point in the game... Higher equities (and gold & silver prices) mean ZERO justification for stimulus...
Zero justification for stimulus means things will continue to deteriorate (making sheeple unhappier & unhappier)...
Unhappy people take out their frustrations on politicians...
Equities are going to have to be the sacrificial lamb here for awhile...
Anybody that reasons it off as simply saying "Oh, um, I think that THEY'LL try and keep equity prices high through the elections" is a nitwit...
Maybe equity prices actually do stay supported for a bit more... But if it happens, it's not because of a secret cartel trying to hold the S&P at 1040 until the elections...
of course, you could always buy high yield muni's!, here try this one:
ReplyDeleteORNAX
that 2008 performance was an outlier, highly unlikely to ever see THAT again....
(schnark)
@ben22
ReplyDeleteTomorrow we have another POMO event...
I'n not saying anything one way or another, but mostly on my mind are the millions in IWM shares that JPM is holding from last Friday (which have NOT been distributed yet)...
They can't be liking the lack of ability of the market to really get out of bed today...
"We're waiting for a catalyst"
ReplyDeleteThe indices will lead
ReplyDeletePOMO is in the short end tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteBuy the front, sell the rear...
STEEPENER tomorrow, BITCHEZ.
dto tagged 83.83 (my limit sell) but doesn't seem like any of my shares took.. i really want another hot d*mn day : )
ReplyDeleteI think da bulls (not of the Chi-town variety) are in trouble.
ReplyDeleteis it noon yet?! i'm salivating for a martini.. 78 and sunny here today, too..
ReplyDeleteThe russell is just hanging around it's "magic round number" much like the dow 10k level, yawn.
ReplyDeleteAs for POMO, .....no comment.
Would ya believe MOMO?
ReplyDelete"i've got 2 mini-watermelons cut and drizzled in fresh lime juice "
ReplyDeleteKaren, the thought of your drizzled melons livens up any trading day.
Gosh I hate it when I know that the ONLY WAY for the markets to break down below 1040 is to buy back all my PUTS...
ReplyDeleteFWIW the 5 min. candle close on todays low was lower than the last two voyages sub 1040
ReplyDeleteIf this is true, then it explains weakness in bank stocks this week:
ReplyDeleteJPM to Shut Down Prop Trading?
A friend of LB made a timely move away from JPM.
Short squeeze in silver or did we just see it?
ReplyDeleteLB has liquidated some more AGG today, rate risk is rising.
ReplyDeleteSometimes holding a lot of cash is a good idea.
CV.. you interested in more TBT again? almost sub 30 : )
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/hedge-fund-manager-dan-loeb-%22the-whole-system-is-rigged%22-535382.html?tickers=xlf,skf,ihf,wlp,gs&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
ReplyDeleteHedge Fund Manager Dan Loeb: "The Whole System Is Rigged"
...I commented a few days ago about the term "going Galt", but I am beginning to see not just small businessmen and risk takers deciding to do this, but apparently people in the finance community also think this is an extremely risky time to have to consider the twists and turns that an interventionist government may take against them...
We like TBT. Volatility is not a feature of a stable bull market in bonds.
ReplyDeleteIf they keep extending this horizontal borderline at 1040 on the S&P, once it gets taken out to the downside, it'll take a millennium to get back over...
ReplyDelete@karen (3;19)
ReplyDeleteNot really... NOW...
Frankly - I'm not interested in anything until things move in either direction of where they're pinned now...
Nic,
ReplyDeletesilver
I don't even have a comment....good luck.
the divergence in gold and silver is enough to make you insane, something that also cuts deep down for all the gold bugs since they can't explain it.
Not this gold bug : )
ReplyDeleteThe ratio hardly seems out of whack to me at all anyway.. seems to be at the mean as far as I can see.
Karen, Nic
ReplyDeleteShort crude? You must be coining it today..
great day in crude
ReplyDeleteWhat was that? S&P 1 min tick jump...
ReplyDeleteMust be the MUST... NOT... CLOSE... UNDER... 10,000... becaue the Messiah is speaking from the Oval office tonight action...
Uh oh. Looks like ADP got leaked...
ReplyDeleteWas just thinking the exact same thing, Ra...
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteYeah... The MOST IMPORTANT NFP IN HISTORY set for Friday...
for me, too.. but still kept the core position up 33%..
ReplyDeleteI have a contractor coming at 1 to discuss my leaking balcony before the winter rains arrive.. i'm so stressed about it now, i barely enjoyed my martini..
I just got my house back to myself and don't want workers here ripping up stone, hot mopping etc during my perfect Indian Summer ..
Is this tape manic or what??!!
Everyone in the country has been laid off, so ADP of ZERO.
ReplyDeleteWOULD BE BTE !! RALLY CAPS... don't laugh, it might happen.
A positive print and there will be a bloodbath in Treasuries...
karen,
ReplyDeleteI'm talking specifically about the fact that gold at new highs and silver is anything but, this is a problem no gold bug is willing to discuss, but it DOES matter.
silver is just as much real money as gold is.
Oops ADP just got retracted...
ReplyDeletePlus... Ft. Knox vaults are probably empty...
ReplyDeleteThey could easily confiscate SILVER on the next go around...
It would probably get you SHOT though (like Kennedy)...
@Amen
ReplyDeleteWTBTE (worse than better than expected)
@ben
ReplyDeletePlus... think of all that "intrinsic" value...
NO NO NO !! Silver is not.. "just as much real money as gold is"
ReplyDeleteLOL..
Besides.. there is LOTS of SILVER around..
I'm getting goofy here...
ReplyDeleteprobably means I need a better avatar...
"NO NO NO !! Silver is not.. "just as much real money as gold is"
ReplyDeleteLOL..
Besides.. there is LOTS of SILVER around..."
I'm going to go against that statement... But I don't DARE argue with you on the subject...
lol, count me unafraid of the risk of a bte jobs number.
ReplyDeleteanything that isn't absolute dog shit is BTE, the phrase has no meaning, it's just a cruel joke on the serfs. Better than Bush is the fallback for Washington, better than shit the fallback for Wall St.
Also,
is there an uncertainty czar yet?
CV @ 4:02, your intelligence continues to AMAZE me !! Okay, my contractor friend is here so we'll enjoy stellas in the sun while we "argue" my balcony..
ReplyDeleteUncertainty Czar.. when we get that or Sarah Palin nomination, I am leaving.. check in later! have fun : )
ReplyDeletekaren,
ReplyDeleteif it were all about scarcity (supply and demand) then I might agree with you but giving a value to "money" is primarily about perception.
@b22
ReplyDeleteIt wasn't ADP...
It was... Get the damn DOW over 10,000 OR ELSE...
His eminence doesn't want his national TV appearance tonight to tell us how wonderful he is for ending our participation in IRAQ (as if it really is), by headlines that the DOW went sub 10,000...
"It's THE ECONOMY STUPID"...
All I know about silver is that before 1964, US coins were 90% silver...
ReplyDeleteIf that's not MONEY, I don't know what is...
Now they're 0% silver...
ReplyDeleteAnd the COPPER content is steadily being weeded out as well...
Pretty soon, we may actually have WOODEN NICKLES...
And that MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR ($1 face value), fetches $15 now...
ReplyDeleteA 1964- or pre washington quarter... $3.50
http://www.coinflation.com/
2010 Washington Quarter?
ReplyDeleteless than a nickel (melt value)
Always complaining...
ReplyDeleteCopper Wire Thefts Leave City Powerless -- Literally
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.sfweekly.com/thesnitch/2010/08/copper_wire_theft.php
Didn't CV say this would happen?
The 1045 got bot....simple. The more times that holds the more bold people will get around the line. We have all seen that retail call buyers have been very active since the april high yes? This time around people that missed the buy this morning were not going to be left with the kicked keg, so they came to the party earlier. This will stop working soon enough.
ReplyDeleteOf course this isn't as sexy as talking about what the ADP means or what the efficient markets are "pricing in" next, but it's the TA perspective, I'm just not smart enough to figure the fundamentals, not to mention I don't have a PhD.
you probably stayed at a Holiday Inn Express tho
ReplyDeleteI didn't
ReplyDeleteand I don't have an easy button either
no wonder I "don't get it"
The Bond Report 8.31.10
ReplyDeleteA risk-off flattener day. You got that, right? The long end was strongest today and 2s10s declined to about 199 bps. Corporate bonds remained strong, and the long bond reached a 3.52% low yield. High yield had a good day, all things considered.
Corpies: LQD 0.34%; AGG 0.07%; JNK 0.34%; HYG -0.03%;
Govies: TLT 1.19%; IEI 0.18%; TIP 0.28%
Hedgies: TBT -2.24%
We sold some AGG today. We are hedged against our remaining fixed income exposure. We are not bullish on bonds here, and see significant rate risk growing here, especially in Treasuries of which we are short.
Oh and just so you can hate me, I am long equities as well.
@ben
ReplyDeleteI'll dice that a little further though (1045)...
Johnny Retail didn't come in and buy 1045 (he can't move the market that fast)...
Brian bought it on the HOPES that he could front run the first 2 days of the month when MOMOS put the 401k juice to work...
Anyway... we'll see how long this bounce lasts
Chris Whalen weighs in:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/chris-whalen-sends-memo-obama-says-it-time-break-refinance-strike-big-banks
CV,
ReplyDeleteI didn't intend to indicate that Johnny moved the market,.... Johnny gets moved. Perhaps the note about call buying would have been better under a sentiment post.
all that I'm getting at is that the net is now interested in buying the 1040 zone, my observation on the second dip today is that we didnt' get as low because that net grew and even more buyers were there to overwhelm sellers, so more and more people are getting tuned into the idea you can go long in that range.
Ben
ReplyDeleteWhat LB is getting at is that the bond market is quite unattractive here. Treasuries, munis and IG all offer very low yield and limited potential.
You can't predict what happens based on a single market.
@ben22
ReplyDeleteI can understand your viewpoint...
But the more I look at this, the more I see these SIDEWAYS consolidation moves as being a way to try to get the summer overwith...
It's as if they don't want the market to crash until after Labor Day (or football season begins)...
I know that sounds hokey but I feel that's the way it is...
I think the JPM's of the world were HOPING that a little rally would engineer all on its own here (and buy some time to distribute all the way back up to the 1090 level or so - but it's just not happening)...
So the 2nd best thing is to just hold the line for as long as possible...
You can't say that all these little bounces off of 1040 look NATURAL can you?
or can you? Perhaps you can...
In any case, it doesn't make me want to play for any BOUNCE... If it goes higher, it goes higher...
I'd rather risk being on the wrong side of the trade for a few days or weeks (and perhaps keep some powder dry in the process) than to miss what I feel is the next, AND SWIFTEST LARGER move... Which I believe will be down...
From Manny's link:
ReplyDelete"By allowing banks to “muddle along” and heal these wounds using low interest rates provided by the Fed, the Obama Administration is embracing a policy of deflation that has horrible consequences for U.S. workers and households."
Gee, I seem to recall Prechter writing a book explaining this is exactly what they would ulimately do, usher in deflation without even realizing it.
Potent Directors though....
But frankly... We might actually be at the MIDPOINT of what will be the next trading range...
ReplyDeleteThink of it this way...
1040+70 = 1110
1040-70 = 970
My only beef is that I've seen enough work done in the 1040 -1110 area...
For chrissakes, we've mostly been there since January... What else does the market need to know?
LB,
ReplyDeleteI don't have any problem with your perspective on bonds right nowperfectly rational, that said, in the same way I've held cash through all of this, which offered me probably even less than "limited potential" from a nominal standpoint, I'm still focused on real return because we are in deflation.
From this perspective there is little to fear owning the safest shortest duration government bonds, so I will continue to own some of them.
@LB
ReplyDelete"Treasuries, munis and IG all offer very low yield and limited potential..."
I realize your argument from an OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD perspective...
The only thing that that does not discount, however, is any FEAR which comes from a Black Swan (whether or not the Black Swan is anticipated)...
I keep saying this EVERY DAY...
Equities are only down 14% from their April highs (not even close to the 20% that most would use to say the market was in BEAR TERRITORY - even tho we know it is)...
So despite negative grumblings, double dips, bad econ numbers...
Equities have not PRICED this in and are existing in some algo driven fantasy world...
When that point of recognition comes... The SAFETY trade will be on (regardless of how rich bond prices are)...
In fact - that is probably what the bond dealers want... They want to unload to the "Johnny's" of the world at these hefty premiums...
They're PRAYING for an equity collapse here...
CV,
ReplyDeleteI don't really try like a lot of people to define what is natural in the market and what is not....I just view it as the market, whatever happens, whatever it looks like, it's just the market, I find when I look for a "reason" behind every little squiggle that I trade horribly and get sucked into the news of the day.
Other people may not have that problem.
I just trade off the charts, it's pretty clear I'm a huge bear overall, but it never stopped me from getting long for some huge moves up, but never once did I make a single move on the long or short side based on upcoming news...it'd be the death of me.
I should do a better job sometimes to clarify client money vs. my own.
ReplyDeleteI'm not about to freak out and shuffle $40 million plus out of treasury bonds right now....have we trimmed some...of course, this was a huge move up, but I can't flip size that quick like I can with my own personal accounts, nor would that even be appropriate for the people I work for.
I've had a handful of quarters since this all started when I severly lagged the market for clients because of my love affair with fixed income...and that's OK, and if it's not for some folks then I get fired, which I can live with, especially considering the overall performance since 2007 versus what you got in equity.
"I just view it as the market, whatever happens, whatever it looks like, it's just the market"
ReplyDeleteI'd agree with that on intraday action (and the like)...
Draw that back to weeks, months, years, & decades, and it tends to take a more patterned shape...
So for me... when you reach moments IN TIME, when the little pictures are converging with the big pictures...
I tend to stick to what the LONGER TERM timeframe is suggesting...
Right now appears to be close to one of those moments...
The INTRADAY is denying the larger view... It's hard to conceive of in a situation where it may take days to resolve (because of holidays or seasonality), and you're sitting there looking at ticks...