Senior NOAA Scientist Admits He Lied That Gulf Spill Oil Is Gone, Puts Administration's Spill-Disclosure "Credibility" In Question
Top Oil Expert: Geology is “Fractured”, Relief Wells May Fail and Oil May Leak for Years … BP is Using a “Cloak of Silence”, and Refusing to Share Even Basic Data with the Government
Treasuries Rise, Stocks Fall on Economy
Hear that people? Stocks are falling because of "the economy" (so go back to your "Cheerios" - try not to spit them out as you read idiotic headline teasers).. Here's what it looks like on one of those fancy heat maps...
And all this could have been avoided if you didn't go out and buy that STUPID McMansion (on Bush's watch)...
Hey, but look, even if you made a poor decision (cause that bad man had you fooled), you can "double-down" & RE-FINANCE it on Obama's watch... Then take all your clothes off and go down to the beach and help him "kick somebodys ass"...
Brit millionaire offers one million dollar to streak naked in front of Obama
Confused as hell as to how you should trade all of this? Well, the FAST MONEY traders on CNBC got your back on that one (literally - they DO - they have your back squarely in the crosshairs of their high powered rife scope)... Your FIRST TRADE this morning (according to "Kelly"), should be to buy PUTS...
Also from Kelly... Buy TLT right after a meteoric rise...
I don't know about anybody else, but it seems like Kelly is trying to do this to your portfolio...
(Note: If the market REALLY tanks today - Kelly's trade may be a good one - but "FIRST TRADE"? - C'Mon Man)...We'll see how it goes, but if it doesn't work out, people around the FAST MONEY desk might be singing...
But that shouldn't be too hard... They've always been good for a nice SONG & DANCE...
SPX 60 min. 10 weeks
short yellow bus version
TBT
I'm pretty confused right now. Two very possibilities:
ReplyDelete1) we bounce off high 1050's or low 1060's
2) we just keep going lower much like the June 21-July 1 move.
This still feels very much like a b or an x wave to me. Maybe things will start getting clearer.
One of the guidelines of EW is the corrective wave usually goes back to wave 4 levels of previous wave. That would take us to 1170 if flash crash was a 3.
With all above mentioned, go back to Andy's chart from August 1st, slide 3 of SPX update.
I have to say, I am really pretty shocked that more people aren't charting the big H&S....that's strange, only have seen a handful of mentions of it this week, every other bearish H&S since last summer was talked about a ton....now that this right shoulder is carved out it looks a lot more like a fractal of the giant head and shoulders that has been traced over the last decade and it even has the bearish downsloping neckline
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/10840781/1/mexican-violence-spills-into-us-banking.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI
ReplyDeleteI never watch Fast Money, is anyone on that show ever in a trade before a large move or do they all just try to pick up crumbs afterward?
ReplyDeleteWhere's Steve Asso, C'mon Man!
Ben,
ReplyDeleteWhat about Andy's bullish head and shoulders from July 25 slide 7. The right side of the head didn't get as high as shown in the chart but it could be sloping???? Outside of the shower, I'm not overly confident in my h&s work - lol.
I really like going back to his charts after the fact to get an idea of which ones played out and where we 'might' be heading.
Crumbs bitchez!
ReplyDeleteMcHappy,
ReplyDeleteI'm stuck now on 12 - Aug through 16 Aug....many have labeled that last move down a 5 and an overall impulse wave down from the 10-Aug highs.
i can see the 5 waves down, however, that fifth wave just doesn't seem to have the right "look"
@McF
ReplyDeleteAnd PLEASE... Make no mention of "the pattern that shall not be named"...
"Candyman"..."Candyman"... don't say it! DON'T SAY IT!!
McHappy,
ReplyDeleteyeah that H&S is still on the table but we may be able to rule it out shortly. Should find out soon enough.
It all looks like a Picasso or Salvador Dali to me at this point...
ReplyDeleteI've always been partial to this Duchamp:
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nude_Descending_a_Staircase,_No._2
got to see that one up close in Philly.
FAST MONEY is all about passing the last trade on your book on to J6P.
ReplyDeleteDistribution, bitchez..!
I exempt Guy Adami from this, on the whole.
morning! nice open all around.. thanks CV.. : )
ReplyDeletemrtopstep, If you see bonds erode spoos might go bid still a tug of war going on here
I'm glancing at this rather quickly...
ReplyDeleteBut in the options area, they don't seem to be pricing in anything higher than 1085, and they seem to have 1056 as a possible target...
yeah today is going to be a lot of fun, I still think we can get it above 1085 for expy but with a changed trend we may just go down from here.
ReplyDeletemrtopstep, sell programs in the S&P 1066.50 week low
ReplyDelete3.05 premium for SEPT VIX 30 C's
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteyeah - if it takes out 1066, it could swoop down pretty quickly to 1056...
the Vix sonar was really interesting yesterday, to say the least.
ReplyDeleterev h&s on drv may play out.. that would make my day.. as would getting out of my gold short : )
ReplyDelete1057.2, would perhaps be support, 1056 just doesn't cut it for me, :-)
ReplyDeleteHmmm down hard yet TICKS haven't taken out yesterdays low of -1167. AUDJPY down but not as much as I would like to confirm bearishness.
ReplyDeletevxx bbs are as pinched as they were at the end of last april before it soared 14 pts.. this market is a nightmare.. : )
ReplyDelete1057.2618 bitchez...
ReplyDeleteI think we tag 1065-1066 and that's all folks...
ReplyDeletewatching 119 on gld.. it is current support.. wild stuff really. check uup!
ReplyDeleteThere's definitely some call hedging getting moved out into September...
ReplyDeletedollar...yes
ReplyDeleteI need to say i told you so to someone on the $xad.. this sell off could have legs!
ReplyDeletenice call shades.
ReplyDeleteThe Aussie is off the radar a bit because of the election.
ReplyDeleteLB is more closely watching EURJPY. Also there has been a little interest in T-bills, which is a concern.
107.00 spy.. ugh.. it could hold but shouldn't.
ReplyDeleteHY bonds are doing OK again. Usually credit leads, it doesn't lag. The Treasury complex is usually strong going into the weekend, and this one will probably be no exception.
ReplyDeleteWe like the tightener here, especially as Monday usually sees selling of Ts. This may take time to get going but I think it is a logical trade.
peep this:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fidelity-401k-hardship-apf-2372973658.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
“The market is currently rife with tactical relative value opportunities and that’s what we will focus on going forward.” said Jim Caron of MS.
ReplyDeleteMorgan Stanley Issues Mea Culpa
Smirk....
@McF
ReplyDeleteMaybe they were withdrawing all their funds to take advantage of the "AWESOME DEALS" on the penny stocks (in the ad on that page)...
1000% returns bitchez!
maybe C, but I'm guessing it's being spent on food and debt service, maybe some tanning.
ReplyDeletemake way 4 the kahuna...
ReplyDeletealso interesting:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/meet-the-youtube-stars-making-100000-plus-per-year-535349.html?tickers=goog,%5Eixic,qqqq&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
I'm sending all of mine straight to the DNC for re-elections...
ReplyDeleteall i want to know is whether they will keep paying that div !!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA05Dj01.html
WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--Telecom Corp. of New Zealand's (NZT, TEL.NZ) full-year adjusted net profit fell 21% due in part to larger depreciation and amortization write-downs, although Ebitda losses slowed down after two years of significant declines as the company cut down on costs.
Auckland-based Telecom, the country's largest telecommunications company by sales and market share, said net earnings for the fiscal year ending June 30 were NZ$382 million, slightly below the company's guidance of NZ$400 million to NZ$440 million.
interesting bit on brk options
ReplyDeletehttp://247wallst.com/2010/08/19/berkshire-hathaway-options-expiration-effect-brk-b/
How Much Debt Does The S&P 500 Have?
ReplyDeleteThe Economist
Businesses may have to start putting leases on their balance-sheets:
"When you lease something—a boat, a warehouse, a machine for making ball-bearings—you agree to pay for it bit by bit over time. So it is like incurring a debt, say the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and America’s Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). Therefore, it should be on your balance-sheet. This new rule, proposed on August 17th by the two regulators, has shocked companies everywhere.
"PricewaterhouseCoopers, an accounting firm, found that it would add about 58% to the average company’s interest-bearing debt."
@karen
ReplyDeleteNo... Didn't you hear?
Dividends Schmividends...
All the NZL'ers are going to turn into "tree farmers" to take advantage of government subsidies for carbon tax trading...
HY is flat. Spreads are wider, but there is no selling of HY.
ReplyDeleteHSBC's Major Says Bond Yields Have `Bit More' to Fall
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOVXRh6MsQ8
(forget him! look at her!)
lefty,
ReplyDeletedo you use JNK as a proxy when you say High Yield?
Also, this does not appear that it is leading, the charts look almost identical, sometimes it's first, sometimes the DOW is:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=%5EDJI&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=jnk
Thoughts?
@karen 910:19)
ReplyDeleteThe sexy new CEO of "Burkashire Hathaway"
http://www.x929.ca/shows/newsboy/wp-content/uploads/burka-sexy.jpg
zerohedge, New post: Double Top Formation Suggests 2.2% Or Lower Yields For The 10 Year, 2.8% For The 30 http://tinyurl.com/3a373xc
ReplyDeleteMcF:
ReplyDeleteA few weeks ago, HYG and JNK were soft, ahead of the stock decline. Now that stocks have declined, HYG and JNK have been relatively firm these last few days. That's what I mean by credit leading at inflection points.
ben, shame on you.. the spx is a much better fix on jnk.. try it!
ReplyDeleteteasing.. actually.. spx and dow practically the same line! as is the compq..
ReplyDeletewell, i'm waiting for the sub 2.5 ten, and that is that.
ReplyDeletegold does not want to go down.. where is the cartel when i need 'em??
karen, it is, but I dont' know that it matters, the JNK chart looks like almost all the widely followed index charts at basically every time frame.
ReplyDeletei don't trust jnk.. too good too be true rule.
ReplyDeleteT looks as tho it will break 26.50.. there is a gap in the 25.25 area, fwiw.
ReplyDeleteThis is one area LB would not touch with a barge-pole:
ReplyDeleteMuni Market Problems
The dividend paying defensive stocks were also strong early today. LB thinks that the yield hunters are out there.
ReplyDeleteWe may go through a period where managers roll out of the growth and commodity stocks and into the defensive stocks. It makes sense.
ReplyDeleteTreasury yields and spreads only have to stay flat for managers who have migrated out into higher yielding bonds to make money.
I hope COLD STEEL isn't lurking today....
ReplyDeletetell me about it! Friday, August 20th, 2010, 9:51 am
ReplyDeleteMoody’s Investors Service foresees more downgrades than upgrades during the the second half of the year for collateralized debt obligations in commercial real estate, as the increase in defeasance rates is greatly accelerating.
Analysts said cash flows from CRE continue to remain stressed and ratings actions reflect higher risk associated with declining debt-service coverage ratios.
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/08/20/commercial-real-estate-cdos-set-for-more-downgrades-special-serviced-loans-rise
TLT new high.... I bow to your understanding of parabolas, Karen.
ReplyDeletethe mutual fund company calls are really flowing in now, all advising to get out of bonds and into high yield and emerging markets debt.
ReplyDeleteseveral since yesterday afternoon, lots of e-mails.
they've been pushing this all year, but now they are getting hardcore.
@LB
ReplyDeleteThat kind of parabola looks like more on the scale of that "galactic lens" magnifier that you linked up yesterday...
re: CRE,
ReplyDeleteseveral months ago I gave real life example of private REIT writedowns.
guess what, there hasn't been a single mark up in that space still, not one.
Now consider banks balance sheets.....pfft.
@McF
ReplyDeleteclamoring bitchez!
@McF
ReplyDeleteIf you click on that first link (in this thread) today...
it's a "bitchez" fest...
Had me laughing for a few minutes... Doesn't take much to entertain CV...
uup at hod, fyi..
ReplyDeleteking dollar,
ReplyDeleteI've almost doubled in 3 different call options on UUP.
who came with me?
that was the best chart set up of any the last several weeks.
Nice. Not a huge move, but a great options play !!
ReplyDeleteEURUSD and EURJPY starting to bump along the bottom.
mrtopstep
ReplyDelete#bonds 10yr turns neg. #equities $ES_F trying to find footing RTH low 1064.50 globex low 1063.50 sml pos remember Aug expiry wild crd
McF -- nice trade! I missed that one, but I had a good UUP call trade on the previous swing up. I'm still working on options position sizing though -- it always seems like my wins are too small and the losses are huge.
ReplyDeleteUUP didn't move up much on the last dollar trades either but the options can provide a very nice return. The fibo's on the dollar chart are really nice so it's been a good one for figured the proper stops and having a nice set up.
ReplyDeleteS&P....eh...not so much.
When I purchased this batch I did several that were at the time just slightly out of the money, those have provided the most juice.
I'm still sort of chapped about the CAT short, I closed it out for a tiny little gain yesterday, the above $70 short wasn't as hot as I thought it would have been with yesterday's selloff.
now look at it today....F!*##@*
C'mon man!
color me confused on bonds right now, I've never seen so many people bullish yet on the other side just as many calling for a bubble to blow up. It usually seems a lot more lopsided with everything. Maybe govies just do nothing for a while.
ReplyDeleteis that the most unlikely outcome?
I see a frou frou drink about 7 hours into my future...yes.
ReplyDeletethat'll be my most accurate forecast today.
ben.. exactly.. new lower trading range.. i don't think we'll see any sharp moves up however.. so no point in buying holding TBT unless there is a manic swing down..
ReplyDeletegood for a smirk: http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2010/08/20/they-think-we-are-idiots/
ReplyDeleteHousingWire
ReplyDeleteCommercial Real Estate Hit with 41% Price Drop and Soaring Delinquencies http://goo.gl/fb/P4XeY #hw
while those of us with SRS and DRV want to slit our wrists.. I'm less than a pt under now..
@mcf
ReplyDeleteWhere's this "3" that DAN & the boys seem to be waiting for?
This sure doesn't look like a 3 to me...
this might helpful for others:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.clarkfinancial.com/max-pain-calculator.html
mrtopstep, cant fall in love w/either side...#CRUDE? lousy performance off an important trend line. our downside pivot is 73.50 & upside pvt is 74.30
ReplyDeleteI say that to hasten the outcome (and set myself up as the sacrificial lamb if it starts now)...
ReplyDeleteC,
ReplyDeleteI think the 3 is on august vacation with everyone else, lol.
mrtopstep, nxt downside target ? with a daily settle below the trend line is 71.10. the downside target for an intraday break is 72.15.
ReplyDeletethe scariest data right now is still M3's contraction....that is some bad juju there.
ReplyDeletehooray 1065 !! the number we've been waiting for : )
ReplyDeleteIf Treasury yields just sit here and spreads don't widen, higher yield will outperform. If spreads narrow, they outperform further.
ReplyDeleteSpreads may narrow b/c of a move out of Ts into HY. Hence a HYG/TBT pairs trade, but the TBT you would swing in and out of, not hold.
probably a good read..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/reports-of-the-death-of-mean-reversion-are-premature/
CV and Karen,
ReplyDeletenice eyes you two, you had that 106 two-three weeks ago.
Now lets bust right through it (and I have about 1% confidence in that right now)
Left,
I sort of like the call from that perspective on HYG, we just stay where we are, in which case you outperform in HY. I almost felt like this was what Bass was doing in a round about way when they showed his allocation.
Since 1010...
ReplyDelete- 8 day rally
- 5 day pullback
- 5 day rally
- 3 day pullback
- 8 day rally
This is the 8th day of current pullback...
there isn't a lot of doubt in my mind we are going to have another crash due to all the madness with HFT/quote stuffing, etc. It would seem the reports coming out that have looked into this all conclude the same.
ReplyDeleteWho knows when, but check this chart from a poster at Dan's, it's a little busy but you'll get the idea:
http://jayscharts.blogspot.com/2010/08/s-500-large-cap-index-spx.html
Sometimes the sky doesn't fall.
ReplyDeleteBonds and divvies keep on paying.. dull isn't it?
mrtopstep, $ES_F hit out sml stps on new lows = expiry makes it tougher to trade plenty of better days ahead... be patient but always use stops !!!
ReplyDeletealaidi , $EURUSD clearly breaking June trendline but resting right on 55-day MA. 1.2612 = 50% retracement $FXE $UUP $$
zerohedge
Jim Caron now changing his tune, saying supply reduction would raise Treasury rates
Off topic...
ReplyDeleteBut i have to say... ESPN has the "worst" fantasy football player ratings system on the planet...
if you follow their advice, you'll probably put together a good team...
A good team for 2007 that is...
BreakingNews - Taliban insurgents attack worksite in Afghanistan late Thursday, killing up to 30 road workers, officials say - Reuters
ReplyDeleteThere is a chance that recent buyers of TLT might receive a little flesh wound next week...
ReplyDeleteanother of our favorite topics! healthcare costs!! and insurers!
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUovUYMjKBNs
Take a look at the 'scribbles' that CV made on a 60 min. SPX chart... NEW CHART IN THREAD
ReplyDeleteDraw your own conclusions...
The red circles are where there were chart gaps...
(there was also one yesterday at the 1085 level...
@LB
ReplyDelete"There is a chance that recent buyers of TLT might receive a little flesh wound next week..."
Has anyone here seen Kelly? K-E-Double L - Y!
@all
ReplyDeleteif you're looking at that SPX chart, and seeing what I'm seeing...
IF (and I do qualify that as an "if"), the SPX does a little "dipsy-doodle" down to 1050-1051 to complete that line...
It's logical that it'll happen as one of those Monday morning (1st 5 minutes of panic) jobs...
Then impluse back...
I don't know... I just work here (and the pay sucks) :-)
I didn't draw it on the chart...
ReplyDeleteBut you could also draw a line straight thru the tails of the latest two 'dips' (from last week), and come to the same conclusion point...
CV. I couldn't follow that chart.. maybe i didn't make it large enough.. do you have that nice 1065 fulcrum chart handy?
ReplyDelete(btw.. i just lost internet and had to restart everything or i would have replied sooner..)
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDeleteVix unch even #DOW market pushing 1% decline 10yr #bond down 4 ticks $ES_F still lookin for footing delayed rally???
What is the Leftback UST forecast 6-12 months out?
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI see it like this...
- the RED line (tilted) forms the neckline of a 13 day H&S, that was broken down WITH AUTHORITY at 1065 (which - remember - was the FLASH CRASH low from before)..
- The red circles are GAPS... GAPS tend to get "filled"... We have left 3 gaps behind since we were at the 1129 highs...
- If I do a FIBO extension from the highest unfilled gap (around 1120), the other ones (at 1094 & 1085) hit perfect FIBO ratios, IF, you extend down to 1050...
- Coincidentally (or not)... 1050 would be the endpoint of the red line as described before (and also intersects the "b" wave support from a few weeks ago...
- It's also close to a termination wedge ending (from the 1131 highs and the 1010 lows - which cross thru important levels and otherwise line up with the GANN angles off the low)...
I was hoping you would just SEE that and wouldn't need it explained...
Paolo shutting down, too!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/paolo-pellegrini-follows-druckenmiller-sunset-paulson-protege-return-all-capital-investors
I don't have to tell you either that is this is an ABC decline (from the most recent highs)...
ReplyDelete1051-1054 is very close to a 1.618 extension off the "A" down (based on closing 60 min candle)...
and guess what? 1010 is 2.618 as "c" of "a"...
That's the end of the REMBRANDT talk I'll be shoveling out today...
ReplyDeletesorry, i can't see anything on that chart above except 1010..
ReplyDeleteQ: Why do most funds shut down?
ReplyDeleteA: Somebody f***ed up badly and lost money.
LB makes no 6-12 month forecasts. That's the kind of crap that causes people to become wedded to stupid trades.... trade what you see !
Realistically speaking, LB sees a Japanese future. Rates remain low. But so much depends on the stupid CB interventions, which are to some extent at the whim of a political agenda.
Wonder if we are seeing the carcasses of the big Treasury shorts carted out on stretchers in this latest wave of fund closures..? Of all the trades touted in January, that has been the worst of the year.
ReplyDeletehmm heavy hitters closing funds...., I should sell my practice, I could get 2.5X rev now or maybe 1 or less in a few years....
ReplyDeletestay tuned.
nevermind
ReplyDeleteLB.. for you.. apparently Fairfield and your buddy Walter Noel still on the hook: http://www.forexlive.com/126733/all/lawsuit-against-madoff-related-feeder-fund-survives
ReplyDeletetaleb bitchez
ReplyDeletenevermind, what? LOL fine. forget it. whatever! : )
ReplyDeletec'mon man
ReplyDeleteKrugman on Austerity and Bond Vigilantes
ReplyDeleteHe is right, this time. But we are only here because of Ben's thus far restrained use of the helicopter policy and Japanese-style ZIRP.
Fraudfield Greenrich ?
ReplyDeleteWhat an excellent FoF !! (Fraud of Frauds)
They collected investor money, send it to Madoff, paid Madoff 2/20 and then charged 2/20 themselves.
I'm getting irritated now [because that graphic MAKES SENSE dammit! :-)]...
ReplyDeleteOK... I'm going to re-draw it for your delicate "fine wine" tasting pallette...
Krugman isn't right. The choice isn't simply between (a) letting Obama waste money and (b) austerity.
ReplyDeleteAnother option is to eliminate the payroll tax. That's a far better option than letting Obama throw trillions down a black hole.
@CV... Was thinking about 1050 area, is a possibility next week, but now, we're at an 18 fib... gonna turn back down?
ReplyDelete18's with 18 fibs...
1098
1091.12
1086.88
1080
1073.12
1068.88
1062
1055.12
1050.88
1044
maybe in your spare time someday when you're bored could you make a 10 day 5 min chart with 18 and the 18 fib's in it?
just a thought :)
18
DL:
ReplyDeleteIt's all a question of where you spend it.
1) Banksters (TARP). Not very productive.
2) Stimulus I. Loaded with pork, largely useless.
3) Unemployment Benefits. Useful but no jobs created.
So let's do this:
4) Small business. The engine of job creation.
5) 3rd World infrastructure updates. The NYC subway is shovel ready.
6) Start-ups in clean finance companies.
Failure to do 4) and 6) means we turn Japanese.
We must never do 1) again.
LB,
ReplyDeleteYou give Obama a couple of trillion to spend, and what’s he going to do?
All of it will go to “blue” states, none to the red states;
Within the blue states, most will go to those states with the largest deficits and/or the most union workers.
NEW CHART IN THREAD
ReplyDeleteMy basic question is...
Why is there essentially NO WORK/PAINT in the 1050-1065 zone?
I suppose the S&P cash is going to spend the rest of eternity either ABOVE or BELOW that zone...
- never fill any gaps above (it's just going to crash and never look back)
- never going to paint some strokes and add to support
- completely forget about ANY IDEA that the 1050 level has outstanding near term fib & line ratios to several key areas...
Naw... It'll never happen...
Move along people, nothing to see here...
CV, this more I look at your chart, and others, 1080 area might be resistance for a while...
ReplyDelete18
S&P cash is going to spend the rest of eternity ABOVE that zone
ReplyDelete(Ken Fisher)
S&P cash is going to spend the rest of eternity BELOW that zone
(Albert Edwards)
Karen,
ReplyDeleteDO you fancy a ramping this afternoon?
S&P cash is going to spend the rest of eternity IN that zone
ReplyDeleteKeep it clean Rooster, this is a family-oriented website.
ReplyDeleteI gotta roll for the day, enjoy whatever happens by the close.
ReplyDeletegood weekends around as well as frou frou drinks.
IMO - I know 1065 is an important number...
ReplyDeleteBut if it was the number that market was looking for to finally print and move on, it would have "impulsed" from there...
It didn't...
So we're still hanging around...
No interest in buying (because it's not LOW enough yet)...
No interest in selling (because nobody wants to send Johnny home with the DOW below 10,000)...
see ya, ben! but i'm not happy you're leaving !! enjoy the weekend : )
ReplyDeleteCV, mrtopstep, no body in the spoo pit vix only down .28 still 100% dead here on the CME floor
ReplyDeletei've got a lot bugging me right now.. $gaso is under $2 and I paid the highest price for fuel in a long time this week.. over $3.33/gallon.
ReplyDeleteyeah, you guys in California really get stiffed on the gasoline.
ReplyDeleteSee if you can spot LB in this NYC photo essay...
ReplyDeleteAn Englishman in New York
@karen
ReplyDelete"still 100% dead here on the CME floor"
That's what I'm saying... This isn't done yet... and it doesn't seem likely to come to a conclusion by this afternoons close (to me)...
32 days (on that yellow triangle ABOVE LINE)...
This may be on hold until Tuesday...
Or, there might be the classic "dip" on Monday (that you could buy into fear)... Then - question your decision all day until finally late Tuesday or Wednesday the level supports and it backtests some abandoned areas above...
That would be the time that all the TLT buyers start getting the R KELLY treatment...
sorry to interrupt the artsy slideshow but here is Danny:
ReplyDelete(he doesn't have a good feeling about this, btw.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWEXJ_D5JJ4
@LB
ReplyDeleteIt's greatly to your credit...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY4So237Ql4&feature=related
you are the gay fellow that wants his colleagues to shut up.. okay, we get it.
ReplyDeleteActually LB is the BULLDOG at the beginning
ReplyDelete- with the attractive lady...
You have to laugh sometimes:
ReplyDeleteNew York State Cuts Assumed Rate of Return for Pension Fund
Oh, really ???
"A reduction to 7.5 percent or 7.75 percent is likely, said Robert Whalen, a spokesman for Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. The move “will increase the required contributions from the state and local governments but will keep the fund as strong as it is now,” Whalen said."
ReplyDeletegood luck with that!!
hey.. maybe they'll just QE the market to 10% returns.. that'll work..
ReplyDeleteSo far... ZH is 1-1 on what to do on POMO days...
ReplyDeleteI might say 0-1 (because the recommendation came out AFTER the first result)...
Here's the latest...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/what-do-pomo-days
well, feeling like an idiot as always, but i can read the annotated, color coded chart!! XXX
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDelete$ES_F #futures if trds abov 1068 raise trailin stps next obvious hurdle above = Open Rnge 1069.50 area followed by 1071.20 HOD
maybe they'll just QE the market to 10% returns.. that'll work..
ReplyDeleteYou read my mind....
The indexes are leading...
ReplyDeleteMore hilarity from the Golden Girl's State...
ReplyDeleteCalifornia Acts Stoned Over a Rock
Friday, 20 Aug 2010
By: Jane Wells
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38786055/
- Paolo Pellegrini, the former Paulson & Co. hedge-fund manager who helped that firm make more than $3 billion with bets on a U.S. housing crash, plans to return money to outside investors in his hedge fund after losing about 11 percent this year
ReplyDeleteYup. Nobody closes a HF while they are winning...
ha ha.. here's where the ~10% return comes in:
ReplyDelete"New York-based Levkovich, 49, estimated the Standard & Poors 500 index will close 2010 at 1,175, an increase of 9.2 percent from yesterday’s close of 1,076."
http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/08/tobias-levkovich-doesnt-fear-hindenburg.html
another $10 mill or so in unpaid loan amounts off to auction in that one little so cal beach town I keep mentioning.. Laguna
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteUntil we close a month UNDER 1030... 3lb monthly trend theory keeps 1180 still in play...
Not probable, but possible...
K,
ReplyDeleteThe liquidity all has to go somewhere. It isn't going to stay in Ts for ever. 1040-1175 could be the RANGE-BOUND TRADE for all eternity.
That would be easy to trade, really...
Watch the long end blow out as soon as all those funds quit.... I am kidding but how often have we seen that happen? Someone closes a SHORT WIDGET macro fund and then BOOM, widgets fall like a stone...
Funds like Pellegrini's succeed at the CAPITAL RAISE b/c their premise is SIMPLE and not very difficult to understand for the more well-off JOHNNYS.
ReplyDeleteBut those type of macro funds aren't well managed like this, and if they just bang away at the same themes constantly... the same thing almost happened to Schiff in 2008. He didn't exactly knock it out of the park with the gold and the decoupling...
My man, Gary Shilling, has kicked most of these SHOW PONIES in the heinie. That's a polite word in case KAREN is here..
RAMPING baby.... are ya FEELIN' me?
ReplyDeleteThis seems to be a very popular post at TBP:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/seeking-the-truth-or-obscuring-it/#comments
I haven't been able to get thru it tho I did skim most of the comments.
Let's see how out friend KELLY is doing on his "first trade" of the morning...
ReplyDeleteIf you'd bought
SPY AUG 108 puts - 31% down
SPY AUG 107 puts - 80% down
SPY AUG 106 puts - 87% down
SPY SEP 107 puts - 2% down
SPY SEP 105 puts - 4% down
SPY SEP 101 puts - 7% down
TLT - down .17%
Now that's some fast money!
mrtopstep
ReplyDeletewell well took awhile but #bonds erroding and now mixed #equities w/ $ES_F testin unch & fill gap 1071.30 stps just abv all trailin stps up
The doctor will see you now, Mr Shorty...
ReplyDeleteCold Steel said...
ReplyDeleteRAMPING baby.... are ya FEELIN' me?
August 20, 2010 2:50 PM
---
Ladies & Gentlemen... I peel back the curtain and offer you a glimpse into the future (on a day when S&P is "bouncing wimpily" from 666 level)...
Cold Steel said...
RAMPING baby.... are ya FEELIN' me?
November 18, 2011 2:50 PM
CV
ReplyDeleteI suspect that Mr Steel is simply trying to inject some levity into the otherwise rather dull proceedings....
@cold steel
ReplyDeleteMy only trade this week was buying TBT yesterday at 31.39...
@anon
ReplyDelete"I suspect that Mr Steel is simply trying to inject some levity into the otherwise rather dull proceedings"...
How ironic - that's what CV tries to do all the time...
mrtopstep
ReplyDeletenew high 3 ticks not impressive weak long exiting now
The HYG/TBT pair seems to be off and running. Although there might be a setback between now and Monday lunch, we like this trade.
ReplyDeleteIf anybody is curious as to why CV went out of his mind and took a "very small" punt on TBT...
ReplyDeleteNEW CHART IN THREAD
Lets go back to April 10.... he he he
ReplyDeleteReally Really Really Bad Calls
sorry i was on a phone call and topstep is so riled up now:
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
COULD BE THE BEST CONVERGE TRADE YOU"VE SEEN
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck
Reply Retweet
mrtopstep
[12:02:15 PM]: EUBIQUITOUS2 [11:58:39 AM]: FYI SPY (LONG) $106.75 & (SHORT) TLT (30YR) $106.75 got to the same price..
up .13 on tbt is no off and running!!!
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeletelast tick on TBT was .74 (I bought it at .39)...
Anyway... It was a small position... & a PUNT... I'm not trying to nail the exact price... Just the AREA...
161.8% (from the high) seems like a decent place for a starter kit...
may i also point out that these ETFs, TBT, for example, experience price degradation.. and don't equate to the yield as they did 6 months ago..
ReplyDeleteIN OTHER WORDS, chart the yield not the price of TBT.. and as a price % performer.. there are many other better bets.. but if you are bored.. or just want to play it for FUN.. be my guest.
ReplyDeleteyou can point out anything you want mrs.
ReplyDeletedrv/dto/faz
HYG + 0.2%
ReplyDeletePull up a chair, this one's just getting started...
If you read the Caron interview above, it's clear he can't think his way out of a paper bag, and he wasn't even thinking about Japan, never mentioned BoJ style QE or the possibility of a double dip. Perhaps his thinking was formed in the 2001-2003 recession. That's not enough history for someone in that important a position.
SPX 30-min 3LB reversed up @14:30. AUDJPY up. It might get a little ugly towards the close.
ReplyDeleteWe're aware that she's a vampire. But we're only talking about taking this one home for a few days, Karen. It's not a meaningful relationship.
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteI always thought shorting those ETF's seemed to be the better play.
@LB
ReplyDeleteThank you!
It's a 10% profit just to cover the damn GAP from last week for crying out loud...
I'm not swing for fences here...
@Amen
ReplyDeleteYou're right... When you can get the borrow (which is hard to do)...
and karen can't short with her account anyway...
We are hedging our fixed income exposure, we do it all the time.
ReplyDeletezerohedge
ReplyDeleteMorgan Stanley's Jim Caron Apologizes For Wrong Call On Bonds, In 180 Degree Move Now Recommends A 10s30s Flattener http://bit.ly/9LGQ5v
"My Bad... So Sad... You're Mad"
ReplyDeleteHe he he he.....
ReplyDeleteYou almost have to take the other side of that bet. For THE FUN...
These macro trades are quite tricky if you don't know what the other players have in mind. Like the FED..
I just want everyone to know,
ReplyDeletemy first name is "Michael", not "cold".
What if Bennie, having whacked the rate on the long bond, now says "purchasing will focus on shorter durations" - so as to get people to take on risk, i.e. buy MBS and long-dated corpies instead of the 30y...
ReplyDeleteSee what I mean ...?
@Brian
ReplyDeleteThe "fun"?
My middle name is REMINGTON....
ReplyDeleteIMPOSTER!!
"the other PLAYERS"?
ReplyDeleteYeah, I guess Bernocchio always fancied himself a market player...
@Steele
ReplyDeleteAre you sure you have the spelling on that correct?
Cause you seem like a "tool" to me...
http://www.stihl.com/
LB @ 3:42
ReplyDeleteMy impression was that Bernanke was buying the 10-year note much more than the 30-year bond.
Is that not correct?
@DL
ReplyDeleteBernanke is buying everything that's not nailed down...
...and most of what is also...
He's like a teenager with her daddy's credit card...
fundmyfund
ReplyDelete$$ this market has become so annoying. Everything is just a S&P 500 correlation or inverse bond trade. No thinking.
CV,
ReplyDeleteThere's also the question of what Geithner is issuing. I thought they were emphasizing the 7-year and 10-year notes over the 30-year bonds.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteAll you've got to do is figure out where the S&P500 is going.
Simple.
"$$ this market has become so annoying. Everything is just a S&P 500 correlation or inverse bond trade. No thinking."
ReplyDeleteNow - with that in mind, imagine how hard it is each morning to come up with a blog thread...
he is so funny! "I am wondering if the frustration of a market that has the logic of a first grader, where "long term" means "tomorrow", where individual fundamental stories mean almost nothing versus what ETF the stock is in, and thinking is looked down upon as every asset trades in lockstep in almost perfect correlation as computers whirl and buzz generating 70% of the volume in a market vacated by carbon life based objects, is causing some of the issue."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/08/paolo-pellegrini-of-psqr-capital.html