This being the end of the month, I've been looking at MONTHLY and WEEKLY charts (going back 12 years and more), to better assess the macro picture...
I'll get to posting them later on, but they're hard to annotate as one could draw many different conclusions... They're better to leave to the individual eye to decide that...
I'd said earlier this week that I expected weakness going into Friday (and lo and behold)... However - today may be the day that the market finally finishes consolidating phase 1 of the huge move up from 1010...
Renew! Renew! - Logan's Run (1976)
Fundamentally, CV doesn't have much faith in the economy, but as I've said many times before, the ECONOMY is not the STOCK MARKET... All one needs to do is look at how the indices have behaved vs. the credit markets for the past month to understand that phenomenon...
It's still summer though... And one weekend only means July rolls into August... In Europe, hardly anyone even works during the month of August... In America, hardly anyone ever works PERIOD (because they're either out of a job, or out shopping for an iPAD)...
Americans Splurge on IPads While Broke in New Abnormal Economy
So I don't know... Something crazy in my gut is telling me that equities aren't through here yet... And although TODAY might be weak at the open, you can always count on MOMOS on Monday & Tuesday of a new month next week to continue with the time honored tradition of transferring your automatic payroll deductions (otherwise known as 401k's), to CEO's...
Jenny Agutter as "Jessica 6"
GDP 2.4%. Previous revised up to3.7%. Why? Claim is inventory rebuilding was still going on. Bond market: 2yr hit new low of 0.5461, 10yr at 2.92% and falling.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleterenew! renew!
Faber on Prechter's Dow 1000-
ReplyDelete"It is likely that if the Dow where[sic] to fall by more than 20 percent from the present level there would be further massive fiscal and monetary stimulus packages – not just in the US but worldwide . . . [it]would likely fail to boost economic activity in the US but could support asset markets . . .
The question here is really, with the Dow below 1,000, what kind of dollars – and especially what kind of dollar credits – will survive," Faber said. "It is safe to assume that almost all banks in the world, and almost all governments, will be bust."
my thoughts- didn't we have the equivalent Dow bust in 1931? Did countries, society and the dollar survive?
here's more-
"I want my readers to think very carefully about the implications of a Dow below 1,000 (or even just below 5,000). Does anyone really think that the money printing presses won't run 24 hours a day? For sure I don't," he wrote in his August report.
And how do you trade the Dow at 1,000?
One suggestion from Faber is buying a self-sustainable farm in the middle of nowhere surrounded by high voltage fences and barbed wire and equipped with booby traps and an arsenal of machine guns, hand grenades and armed vehicles guarded by vicious Dobermans.
So . . .the implication is- complete societal collapse- Dow 1000 = Armageddon? A surreal post apocalyptic world- Road Warrior?
Any thoughts? I see Armageddon as Soviet tanks bursting through the city gates in 1945 Berlin.
My only question is...
ReplyDeleteWho is responsible for creating a world where the attitude becomes...
MUST... KEEP... DOW... OVER... 5,000...
or society is doomed...
morning! our futures saying what i see? haven't gotten my coffee yet.. probably good that i stumbled out of bed this AM when I did..
ReplyDeleteCV-
ReplyDeleteI am just trying to understand-
Prechter's view of a Dow 1000 appears to be more sedate-
he views it as the buying opportunity of a lifetime-
not a time to erect barb wire fencing and watch towers-
but who knows- maybe it would cause severe societal disruptions-
especially that retirement accounts are all centered on the stock market as the investment vehicle of choice-
last 10 years haven't been so stellar
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.6 percent in the second quarter, compared
ReplyDeletewith an increase of 1.9 percent in the first.
Current-dollar gross national product (GNP) (GDP plus net receipts of income from the rest of the world) was revised down $8.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, for 2007; was revised down $39.7 billion, or 0.3 percent, for 2008; and was revised down $95.9 billion, or 0.7 percent, for
2009.
Laughing, yes, I need coffee to type and see in are mornings..
ReplyDelete"and see in are mornings.. "?
ReplyDeleteget some muddy water in you, girl
ReplyDeletebat.. my 9:26 was in reference to my 9:20.. okay.. back to sell targets : )
ReplyDeleteand why does the Fed have the illusion that they can change a river's course? Here- Bullard appears to be the pitch man for future Fed action-
ReplyDeleteSt. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Friday said there is unanimity among officials on the central bank's policy-setting panel over providing more support to the economy if the recovery suffers a serious setback.
"I think everyone on the committee is completely on board with the idea that, you know, if things got really bad, we would try to take other action . . .
The St. Louis Fed chairman said that with interest rates near zero, the central bank should shift its focus from promising low interest rates to using its printing press to push more credit into the financial system as economic conditions fluctuate
wow- more credit . . .to . . .do what with?
TNX 29.16
ReplyDeleteUh oh
ahab
ReplyDeleteIt didn't work the first time. Why would they want to continue? Isn't that the definition of insanity?
and I love the use of "past tense" in this headline-
ReplyDeleteRecession was deeper than gov't previously thought
was? wow- glad that's behind us
Ok WTH was that move?
ReplyDeleteAlright WTF was that?!
ReplyDeleteLB trading drunk again I suppose...
ReplyDeleteit was pmi sillies!
ReplyDeleteI always forget some folks get PMI early... nevermind
ReplyDeleteahab,
ReplyDeletewhat you say here about Prechter: "Prechter's view of a Dow 1000 appears to be more sedate"
is how it should be approached.
it's amazing how the press has run with this 1,000 call, he came up with this a decade ago!!, they are twisting Prechter's call all around into something it isn't, and these journalists don't understand e-wave at all.
oh well, I don't feel like getting into it, and as for how to trade it....that's why prechter says not to, as for Faber, he's the original Dr. Doom for a reason.
Karen
ReplyDeleteI prefer the CFNAI (Chicago Fed National Activity Index) which was –0.63 in June and down from +0.31 in May.
b22-
ReplyDeleteI guess I don't see it as the end of the world- but maybe to folks to Wall Street it is
Ra @ 9:40-
no doubt- how does buying treasuries help- how does pushing more credit into the system help?
Where is going to go?
maybe they will force folks to take loans at gun point
1088 tapped in case you didn't notice : )
ReplyDelete" but maybe to folks to Wall Street it is"
ReplyDeletein my best Hugh Hendry
for some people its the end yah, and others will make money
there is no start and end to markets, if they did die here they'd get bigger somewhere else, they've been around for centuries
anyone see any evidence of down-sizing, tho' not necessarily to this extreme?
ReplyDeleteWill The "Tiny House" Movement Catch On?
have a friend, 70-yr old divorced, retired college prof who sold the house in which he raised his family, lived in condo's for 2 years, and just moved into the 600 sq. ft. house he had built in a development of small lots and homes and paid cash.
Hmmm ECRI came out at 9 (if you pay for it). Public release at 10:30.
ReplyDeleteb22-
ReplyDeletedude- it's the end of the world- I just put an order in for some razor wire-
you know- just in case Dow 1000 comes to fruition
@karen
ReplyDeleteIf you recall yesterday... I pointed out that 1088 was the WEEKLY 55MA on $spx...
Market goal is to fill opening gap on the 1 & 5 min charts. Trying to engineer a reversal. Happens every time.
ReplyDelete@72bat
ReplyDeleteand there's always the old DOUBLE WIDE...
Conveniently located in tornado alley...
72 bat- this book came out about 10 years ago-
ReplyDeleteNot So Big House
and this book-
Affluenza
I think people are just getting fatigued w/ the consumer society
instead of hating the usd, now i just focus it all on the aussie.. damn thing will not sell-off..
ReplyDeletere: DOW 1000
ReplyDelete100% agree. This would be 'end of world' for Wall St. For most it would not change any part of their life - thing are already tough for J6P and they are going to get tougher whether we have DOW 1K, 5K, or 10K. The markets are not the economy. The doom and gloom MSM coverage of a possible DOW 1000 is why people will sell at the worst time and buy at the worst. Bring it.
ahab, please think again.. this is what is really happening.
ReplyDeleteAmericans Splurge on IPads While Broke in New Abnormal Economy
"For most it would not change any part of their life."
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure about that...
A lot of pension funds would take an unrecoverable hit...
So people who count on pension income would be severely impacted...
@CV
ReplyDeleteVery true. I did not think of people relying on fixed income. I would say the elderly or people already retired would most definitely suffer in this situation. For those close to retirement, I think they have already given up the retire young and keep current lifestyle dream.
Just curious what you all think:
How many in their 50's or early 60's are rolling in debt (mortgage, cc, loc, heloc, car) or living cheque to cheque at a time when most would hope to be eyeing possible upcoming retirement?
mrtopstep
ReplyDeletegoing to lower out buy stops down to 1096.50 if they go back up there think they trade 1099 or higher no trade here pit is thinning out
from Karen's link-
ReplyDeleteThere was little evidence of the recession at a recent lunchtime in the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota. The nation’s largest mall was full of shoppers drinking expensive coffee and toting bags of electronics and expensive shoes. Some of them were there on vacation.
vacation? now I've heard everything
ahab.. it's those extended unemployment benefits.. shop till you drop while unemployed, i mean, on vacation.
ReplyDeleteFunny how we totally bounced off 1088. That ties in very well with being a iv of
ReplyDeletea) a of C
b) b of C
c) c of C
Now if I could only figure out which one it is I'd be rich.
sorry, b) option above does not tie in with the iv.
ReplyDeleteb) option ties in with extreme max pain for anyone short.
ReplyDelete$tnx is something else.. is this a tradable bottom on the formation of the left inverse shoulder? or is a 2.5% yield next?
ReplyDeleteit is definitely out of the ordinary for the ten year to be sub 3 and the spx to be above 1100.. one is in a bubble..
ReplyDeletein other words, something's gotta give.
ReplyDelete@ ahab -
ReplyDeletemy favorite is the line right before the quote you cited
"Life has to have some normalcy. I have to have some luxuries.”
THAT, my friends, speaks volumes 'bout the 'murican way of life: normalcy = luxuries.
not so much in the future for my kid's generation.
Taleb has it in for the NYT this morning:
ReplyDeleteEveryone PAYS for his mistakes makes the world a better place. Golden Rule should apply to B-School Professors, Newspapers (NYT), Bankers
Ethics disallow me to express an opinion without personal risk; it would be like watching an adventure movie, or, worse writing for the NYT
ECRI -10.7% and the markets go green. WTF?
ReplyDeleteLet them eat cake...
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteI kno right?
But here is his quote of the day, imo.
ReplyDeleteForget 2300 p of reg; problems are cured at the source with the RISK GOLDEN RULE: "Captains go down with ships, all captains & all ships".
AR @ 11:02, i will change my avatar shortly, that will fix everything : )
ReplyDeleteI still think we might go lower (perhaps even into Monday)...
ReplyDeleteMaybe we fill that gap in the 1072 area...
But I'd be real wary of a bounce after that... CV is only talking 'technicals' here...
We're totally wandering around in the wilderness...
John Williams at shadowstats.ocm must be going through conniption fits right about now.
ReplyDeletedow 1,000 would be the biggest problem for those most dependent on social safety nets because most of them will fail, social security, pensions, etc. that's the worst part about something like that, it will wipe so many people out, but that's not the same as the end of the world.
ReplyDeletethe wealthy are already hoarding cash, if you haven't started to prepare you are already behind, and people can do what they like with a comment like that.
it's not close today though, the love affair with stocks and risk is still alive and well, don't be fooled by the outflows from retail out of mf's, anecdotal sure but I can tell you people still want stocks, they are just catching on to how bad funds are, td ameritrade and the like are doing good business and more and more people are using etf's, look at the huge amount of bullish call options getting purchased in 1-3 contract increments....this is not big money. you can also see risk embraced with how much HY debt is being issued.
"wandering around in the wilderness" ?? i beg to differ.. drifting off into a self induced coma is more accurate : )
ReplyDeletehey, all, i wasn't that thrilled by INCEPTION (and I had a free ticket!) if you haven't seen it, wait till you can rent or download it..
@ben22
ReplyDelete"people still want stocks, they are just catching on to how bad funds are, td ameritrade and the like are doing good business and more and more people are using etf's, look at the huge amount of bullish call options getting purchased in 1-3 contract increments"
Yeah - they can use that PATTERN RECOGNITION technology and spot those H&S's...
Rich I tell you! They're going to get rich!
It'll spot patterns for you while you're at the driving range hitting balls...
ReplyDeleteSweet! :-)
@Ben22
ReplyDelete"people still want stocks"
I'm 31. Most of my friends are starting to settle down or are (i.e. wife, kids, house, etc.). Talk 5-6 years ago was getting wasted, establishing career, picking up chicks (worry to any women reading - but it is the truth and that was the terminology). Fast forward today: mortgages, interest rates, STOCKS are the talk after (and sometimes before) weddings, dirty diapers, all night feedings. And no, conservatism is not in the discussion: it is full speed ahead, leverage up, speculative stocks, growth stocks, and dividend stocks. I've given up trying to discuss deflation and the implications in these settings. Nobody likes a downer, although I prefer realist.
pulled the trigger on some dollar today...still some dry powder
ReplyDeletei bot another 1k bzq.. more bang for your buck than uup.. coulda turned that this morning for $500 but didn't..
ReplyDeleteGood tunes...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbhYzbPMN8U
The Grounds...
oh, Karen, btw, I clicked that link you had the other day of that dude, and the uh...towel....ugh.
ReplyDeleteI did UUP calls, I'll leave it at that for now.
ReplyDeleteMcHappy,
ReplyDeleteyeah, every party I go to I get bombed with that crap "what stocks are you buying"
what's really funny though is if someone keeps pushing me to explain something and I start to how they always act like they know exactly what I'm talking about...
EUR/USD back toward 1.3055/60 resistance
ReplyDeleteWritten by Jamie Coleman
July 30, 2010 at 15:50 GMT
Looks like Europe is covering some EUR/USD shorts ahead of the weekend, driving prices back toward 1.3055, the spike top after the US GDP data earlier in the day. 1.3060 provided support all day yesterday so some may look to sell on the approach of that level today as it becomes resistance.
Cable is firm into the close as well, extending its gains as high as 1.5702 on the Reuters dealing platform…
anyone just see a major WTF on their eurusd/ usdjpy charts???
ReplyDeleteBueller???
ReplyDeleteCV, apologies!! you have that bloomberg link in your morning audibles.. i did say i was blurry eyed this morning.. and i'm just re-reading it now : )
ReplyDeletewhatever it was, its weird enough for me to step away and go make some breakfast...
ReplyDeleteTraderMark is giving up on his short TLT position today of all days!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/07/bookkeeping-covering-ishares-barclays.html
@karen
ReplyDeleteNo problem... It's a weird one today, that's for sure...
Here are some random thoughts...
- There has been no IMPULSE moves down from any of this weeks highs (which leads me to believe that the market is just correcting back a little and re-charging it's batteries...
- I'm not surprised it's coming at the end of the month
- I don't think it's finished just yet (somewhere between the 1072 gap, and perhaps 1080 is my current guess - that could be as early as today, or as late as Monday)...
- I think the market will make one try higher in the month of August (on low volume, naturally)...
- I'm agreeing with McF's & Andy's move into the dollar... I think the Eur might have one last small squeeze, but now is probably a good time to start in with positions...
Hey.. this was a good trick:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/7/29/poll-results-are-645-of-readers-bullish.html
Long time reader, first time poster. Looks like $spx will be in a sideways trading pattern for a few weeks, maybe longer, will we see 1200 before we see 1000?
ReplyDeletejust curious on what ya may say.
TIA!
@Larry...
ReplyDeleteMaybe (or something thereabouts)... Thanks for chiming in...
CV went on record yesterday as putting 1186 on the table...
And I had some charts embedded in the thread on Wednesday whereby some patterns traced out towards 1150+...
So anything in there is a possibility...
No REASONING for it... Just technical...
Heads we go up, tails we go down!
ReplyDeleteDon't worry about slowing growth, buy more stocks!
US may be lucky to settle for Japan-style future.
Keeping it simple...
ReplyDeleteThe 50SMA [daily] on SPX is around 1081.50 (and trying to curve back upwards), as we speak...
It would be logical to assume that the market may test that MA for support... Today is the 7th day that it's been above that support... Perhaps it'll test it on the 8th day... A FIBO day...
Anyway... If, by Tuesday, the market finds a base... That might bring some buying in...
Some of these "technicals" may start to look good...
In 6-8 weeks I'm thinking we'll see headlines about the inverse correlation between stocks and the dollar.
ReplyDelete@ben22
ReplyDeleteTotally! :-)
@ben
ReplyDelete...and starting Monday they'll be saying "see - that CARDINAL CROSS was just more Y2K crap"...
Buy stocks... lol
Yesterday, I noted that currency pairs were at extremes.. hardly likely to continue.. the $spx weekly candle indicates a turn is at hand while the $spx monthly is bullish engulfing.. could we get to 1200? I guess so.. fundamentally seems unlikely, tho.. not with bonds and currencies telling us otherwise..
ReplyDeleteAfter reading this, now that I am better informed, I doubt they will sell 4000 Volts. I didn't realize it was 40 miles per charge and used premium gas.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.redstate.com/barrypopik/2010/07/30/friday-ny-times-rare-gem-gm%E2%80%99s-electric-lemon-chevy-volt/
Friday NY Times rare gem: “G.M.’s Electric Lemon” (Chevy Volt)
I'm still looking at dates around 8/9-8/11 +/- 2 days based on some fibo work I'm trying to apply, I'll give a chart if it works out, otherwise I have more work to do. this is for S&P around where I'd expect a top.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/open-letter-president-obama
ReplyDeleteYou guys are nothing but monkeys wearing pants.
ReplyDeleteBanana anyone?
Bruce, that is absurd..
ReplyDelete@Bruce
ReplyDelete"I doubt they will sell 4000 Volts. I didn't realize it was 40 miles per charge"
Might as well just drive around friggin' golf carts...
premium gas, I'm not sold, my car is supposed to take premium though I've filled it with regular many times, I am on the road a lot, it runs just fine.
ReplyDeletealso, along the lines of cars, I've decided the worst drivers are typically found in a PT Cruiser. Sorry if anyone has one of those, just calling it like I see it.
ReplyDelete@Ritholtz
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xomArI4aJ0&feature=PlayList&p=E8BAAB1B9AB900FE&playnext=1&index=5
CV, whomever that character, Ritholtz/Larry, is, this name links you to TBP.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna go with that being LB.
ReplyDeleteCV @ 12:55
ReplyDeleteSomehow, I don't think that the 2012 election is going to turn on the issue of insider trading.
Now would be an opportune for the algos to pick up some pennies and do a false breakout to 1106...
ReplyDeleteKaren and CV:
ReplyDeleteActually, my wife and I both drive a Prius, so I am not anti-green. And before that we had always owned Fords or GM models of some sort. But now that I look at the Volt, this is a non-starter unless it is VERY heavily subsidized by the taxpayer from manufacture to recharge stations to subsidies for premium gas. And as the article states, the non-electric model of this small car retails for 17k. That is a hell of a lot of gas for the missing 24k difference in the price of the two models.
..Government motors...
And I have an F-150 farm truck
ReplyDelete@DL
ReplyDeleteThe thing that interested me about the article (realistic or not)... Is that the guy is fundamentally right...
If Obama were to do the POPULIST bidding here and really "stick it to" the power elite, he could become the most popular guy in history...
Will he choose that path?
Of course not... Which means... he's NOT one of US, he's one of THEM...
End of story... (But that's why Ritholtz & Kass support the Administration so much - because both of them want to think of themselves as ONE OF THEM)...
Wall Streeter who blogs...
Thanks dude for "slummin'" with us riff raff every now and then... We know how tough that must be for you...
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteNat Gas...
Get 60% of the vehicles (100% of "fleet & public transportation" vehicles tooled to run on NATTY)...
If you want to do a hybrid... Do a HYBRID/NATTY mix (instead of hybrid/gasoline one)...
Forget about ELECTRIC CARS altogether... Save that for trains...
No way to eliminate insider trading. For one thing, people with inside information can trade in someone else's account.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I would very much like to see stepped-up enforcement of insider trading laws.
@ben
ReplyDeleteSocioeconomics:
One thing I'm noticing is how QUICKLY agents are signing their players to contracts...(esp the NFL)...
They can't wait to get the ink dry...
Hardly ANY holdouts, and they're taking what they can get...
Maybe they're more clever than we thought...
DL,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you, but what's the way to go about doing that? I hate to say it but it's really easy to hide insider trading.
@DL
ReplyDelete"enforcement" is the operative word...
Most of these regulations are already in place... No ENFORCEMENT whatsoever...
Like Rangle?
What will end up happening? MEH - he'll get his limo privileges taken away for 3 days...
CV,
ReplyDeleteEven so, when you look at it, if you want to go the electric route the Leaf looks like much the better deal, cheaper..and much longer between charges.
It looks to me with the 40miles/charge that the Volt is just an expensive glorified Prius. That is the way it would work out...
CV,
ReplyDelete"Maybe they're more clever than we thought..."
or, another way to think is that they are aren't clever at all just revealing how we are all hardwired, reacting to their emotions generated by their moods, the outward emotions they understand the mood they can't recall, they may not realize the 'why', they might just have a 'feeling'. Look how Philly just signed Oswalt, there is a lot of interesting socionomic development in sports right now, especially within MMA.
Natural gas, natural gas, natural gas.
ReplyDeleterangle,
ReplyDeletedude had a very powerful purple power shirt/pocket squire/tie going on yesterday. His shirt had a spoiler I think.
er, pocket square that is.
ReplyDeletealaidi
ReplyDeleteif i had $1 for every time i heard "we're near the bottom in $USDJPY" ? i'd be competing w/ Fed in liquidity. have gd wknd $$
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteIt's hard for anybody to get me to change my viewpoint on the subject... Why?
Because people tend to look at the problem from a VEHICLE perspective...
I look at it as an INFRASTRUCTURE DELIVERY problem... In this case, getting AGGREGATES of energy DELIVERED to vehicles...
If you're a wedding planner, there's a difference between having a quaint gathering of close family members & someone who needs to prepare for a guest list numbering in the 1000's...
I didn't know you were into weddings, CV...how is the Clinton wedding coming?
ReplyDelete:)
ReplyDeleteThat's karens domain...
ReplyDeletelol, Bruce you beat me to it.
ReplyDeleteBut seriously CV, I agree, if you buy a car, most families can afford maybe two, and if you wanted to take this lemon on the Interstate, you'd need to charge every 40 miles...
ReplyDeleteI am beginning to look at this Volt idea like people do a second home or a boat...this would be a car for use only a little part of your driving life...
cuphandle action on $SPX
ReplyDeleteAlso...
ReplyDeleteTo follow up on yesterday's AMENRA's CORNER (namely - the WTF GS candle)...
karen? Amen? master of the sticks...
What is today's GS candle telling you (in reference to yesterday)?
watching ZSL on this pull-back for a possible set up.
ReplyDeleteFriday, July 30th, 2010, 12:41 pm
ReplyDeleteSource: The Atlantic
So much for the Volcker Rule. Although the ink from President Obama's signature is barely dry on the financial regulation bill that became law last week, investment banks are already hard at work searching for loopholes. One of the more aggressive new requirements, the so-called Volcker Rule, would limit proprietary trading to 3% of Tier 1 capital. But the rule may be easy to sidestep. Goldman Sachs is leading the way around the regulation, by simply reclassifying many of its prop traders as asset managers.
Everyone loves Lloyd
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38488962
Throwing good money after bad? Will this ever end?
ReplyDeleteFriday, July 30th, 2010, 12:49 pm
Source: The Wall Street Journal
LNR Property Corp., a large commercial real-estate company controlled by Cerberus Capital Management, recapitalized its balance sheet by issuing $417m in new equity to a group including Vornado Realty Trust, iStar Financial Inc. and Cerberus.
@DL
ReplyDeletekaren just replied to your (1:17) - in a round about way...
(1:47)
But the rule may be easy to sidestep. Goldman Sachs is leading the way around the regulation, by simply reclassifying many of its prop traders as asset managers.
Snips from DR:
ReplyDelete"There are legions of economists out there who claim that it is normal to see the
economy take a breather at this stage of the cycle, but in truth, what is “normal”
in the context of a post-WWII recovery is that four quarters into it, real GDP
expands at over a 6% annual rate."
this seems to fly in the face of queen chin (romer) and her saying El Erian is wrong about the new normal, that instead it's the "old cyclical"
CV @ 1:53
ReplyDeleteTheoretically, "prop trading" is not the same as insider trading.
But at GS, there's probably quite a bit of overlap between the two.
"Goldman Sachs is leading the way around the regulation, by simply reclassifying many of its prop traders as asset managers."
ReplyDeletehahaha.
you know what I say, props to goldman for this, if these idiots in Washington are going to craft "regulation" this easy to get around then what else should we expect the goldmans of the world to do.
If I were dealing with people that dumb I'd give them finger and work around it too.
more from DR:
ReplyDelete"The fact that Yellen, a policy dove, is now Bernanke’s #2, and that we have
someone with Bullard’s credentials on board with the ‘deflation risk’ mindset, it
may well be time to maximize duration in government bond portfolios for if/when
the Fed starts buying, we are likely to then see the mother of all bull flatteners in
the Treasury market. Keep in mind that Mr. Bullard represents a region that
historically was “hawkish” and focused on the evils of inflation so what he had to
say yesterday was significant (and he joins Boston’s Rosengren on the list of Fed
Bank Presidents who have recently voiced some concern over deflation risks)."
The FinReg bill is all about helping the "little guy". And eliminating the need for more bailouts.
ReplyDeleteworth a skim, "The crisis of middle-class America"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/1a8a5cb2-9ab2-11df-87e6-00144feab49a.html
CV
ReplyDeleteSo far todays candle on GS says yesterday was BS.
@DL
ReplyDeleteDammit... get with the program!
DL - I like you... But the only things that IRRITATE me from time to time are when CV tries to use METAPHORS to describe a behavior or action and someone responds to me with TECHNICALITIES...
OK... I know... I know... I know THEORETICAL things... I know the LETTER OF THE LAW...
Cv is interested in PRACTICE...
Let's just "cut to the friggin' chase now shall we"?
If people would do that more often - IMO - we could solve a lot more things in society... faster...
But that's not the way it is, is it? Instead, we have to DICK AROUND, and come up with complex processes to split hairs on everything...
Jeez - CV wishes he had a penny for every friggin' second of time that people WASTE being wishy washy and "politically correct"...
No offense to you though...
I guess, OTOH, I prefer living in a democratic society (which means I occasionally have to listen to "hare-brained" logic")... :-)
not sure though this makes any sense to me in the "what would turn me bullish"
ReplyDeleteConsumer confidence closer to 100 (typical of expansion) than the current
50 reading.
I love trotting this out:
The all-time high for consumer confidence occurred in October 1968, with a reading of 142.3. The Dow topped two months later and lost 36% over the next 18 months. Conversely, in February of 2009, consumer confidence hit an all-time low — and the DJIA bottomed days later. In April 2009, after the stock market rally had already started, the Conference Board consumer confidence Index leaped 45% to 39.2, the second biggest jump on record. The biggest-ever increase came in April 1974, when three-quarters of the damage from the 1972-1974 bear market was still to come.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteIf GS ends up selling down to yesterdays lows, wouldn't that be DARK CLOUD COVER?
You know... THEORETICALLY... While we're on the topic and all...
"The FinReg bill is all about helping the "little guy". And eliminating the need for more bailouts."
ReplyDeleteLot of truth there you p.o.s., helping the little guy become a debt slave faster and eliminating the need for bailouts once everyone is under the banks thumb.
so yeah, technically you aren't lying...
K @ 2:01
ReplyDeleteYeah, I skimmed it.
All I saw was a discussion of what's wrong, and not much about what should (or can) be done.
@DL
ReplyDeleteHow about BURNING IT TO THE GROUND and starting over?
What's wrong with that idea?
Sad to say people... but sometimes...
ReplyDelete- If you're a high school teenage boy... YOU'RE NOT GOING TO GET THE GIRL...
- If you're a HS teenage girl... YOU'RE NOT GOING TO GET TO BE BRITNEY SPEARS
- If you're a CUBS fan... YOUR TEAM ISN'T GOING TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES
- If you're a CAVS FAN... LEBRON IS MOVING TO SOUTH BEACH
Boo-Hoo... Sorry for your plight!... But...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x-fkSYDtUY
leave britney alone!
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteYou're in a bit of a strange mood today.
I'm in this exact mood every day...
ReplyDeleteIt's simply a matter of whether I EXPRESS IT or not...
CV,
ReplyDeleteI'll bet your wife has a great sense of humor.
@DL
ReplyDeleteNot married... GO FIGURE! :-)
what is the spx? a J boat? turning on a dime like that on a slow, slow, slow day..
ReplyDeleteThe market action today is most riveting.
ReplyDeleteThats just ye old market trying to shake out all the shorts before the next plunge...
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDelete+1
SPY has room up until 110.50 to scare shorts into covering...
ReplyDeleteIts getting to be about that time though...
ReplyDeleteI'm net short...
ReplyDeleteNo wait... I'm net long...
No wait... I'm net short...
No wait...
I'm in cash...
ReplyDeleteShould stick to writing books Bart...
ReplyDeleteNo wait...
Dont.
ZH posting latest Sprott/Embry report calling for parabolic move up in $gold.. personally, i don't think it has corrected enuf..
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jmhlyuxULI&feature=related
@karen
ReplyDeleteSo I guess GOLD is going to "go parabolic" while TLT is working on that "pennant"...
LOL
@karen
ReplyDeleteHell - This morning, ZH was putting out some articles about FED presidents uttering the "D" word, and 5 hours later they're putting up articles of gold going parabolic?
They're more schizo than SPX!
I own some GDX.
ReplyDeleteIf it ever breaks out above that $56 ceiling, it could haul ass.
I've been watching that level for a long time, DL...
ReplyDeleteSomeday.
The recoveryless recovery express rolls onward. But, hey, the recovery is in full bloom on Wall Street and in the executive suite, so it's "mission accomplished" for them.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/31/business/economy/31econ.html?hp
I-Man,
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts about trying to trade another contract (such as gold or oil) someday?
If "ifs" & "buts" were candy & nuts, oh what a world it would be!
ReplyDeleteMannwich,
ReplyDeleteIn my next lifetime, I'm going to be an investment banker.
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteMaybe OBAMA could land a helicopter on the top of 55 Broad and declare it...
FOR EFFECT!
No kidding, DL. Maybe we should shoot for being one in THIS lifetime? Problem for me is that little pesky thing also known as a "conscience".
ReplyDeleteOT, anyone remember that chick from the world cup? Probably not a suitable gift/link for work.. laughing.
ReplyDelete@DL (2:49)
ReplyDeleteIn my next lifetime I'm going to be a UKRAINIAN HOOKER... And have you supply me with free blow 24/7...
Perfect, cv. In this day and age, don't rule it out. After all, he went on "The View" the other day, didn't he? Bread & circuses all over again, this time in High Def and warp speed.
ReplyDeleteAnd lack of "pedigree" - the other problem.
ReplyDeleteMannwich @ 2:51
ReplyDeleteRegarding a "conscience",
my theory is that we're all whores.... it's just a question of price.
The last hour approaches, rolling my eyes..
ReplyDeleteoh! SLV and XLF from optionmonster
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL8PD9U5asE
XLE, I'm sorry.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, Newt wants to start a war with everyone that we haven't already started one wit yet.....could be our next prez? Maybe that's the "jobs" solution? Anyone who's unemployed gets drafted for all the wars we're about to start?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/30/newt-gingrich-suggests-at_n_665063.html
cv -
ReplyDeletebeen out & just now catching up
re natty power
still looking for the super-micro gas turbine generator/hvac/hot water unit that fits in the home utility room, integrating waste heat to provide/supplement hot water and hvac, and overnight charges up your electric commuter vehicle.
with 50% of electricity lost in transmission de-centralizing power generation it would be a major carbon footprint reducer
this is working better than I thot. long larissa, short the market.
ReplyDeletenntaleb
ReplyDeleteMy biggest problem with modernity may lie in the confusion between ethical and legal. The biggest thief, secr Robert Rubin, broke no law
Agreed, DL. Different thresholds of a conscience equals different prices, I guess. It's just not worth it to me to do some things.
ReplyDeleteIn the end, everything's ultimately about sex anyway.
@manny
ReplyDeleteor maybe we could elect Shiela Jackson...
After all... she knows best all things war related...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XK3rTUgoQD4
There There Chet, why don't you sit down in your favorite comfy chair and I will bring you a nice piping hot camimille tea and make you a sandwich.
ReplyDeleteMannwich @ 2:56
ReplyDeleteI don't favor a war with Iran, and a war with N. Korea would be largely pointless.
That said, I do think that in future years, Iran is going to cause huge problems, because it'll have nukes.
@72 (2:59)
ReplyDeleteRemember all the times CV has talked about the silly PENNY STOCK that he owns?
Guess what it's related to?
@72
ReplyDeleteBut I will re-iterate once again...
The END SOLUTION isn't going to come from COMMERCIALIZED FARMING & DISTRIBUTION of these technologies...
It's going to come from individual implementation...
That's the bottleneck we face... Al Gore sees himself as a RAILROAD magnate... F*** HIM!
You WHORE!! Where is my #@#*& sandwich, you are such a #@#* you #@#* Tramp, dressed up in #@*$ Apron making #@*@ Sandwich's but none for me.
ReplyDeleteWe will see how you$#*# like to *#$&@ when I take the hot tea and $#*@ it all over your*#@& face.
Oh wait, sorry guys wrong wife, I thought it was my *#$@ wife making @#*@ sandwiches and @#*@ tea for CV.
The U.S. economy isn’t recovering fast enough to restore the level of jobs seen before the recession started in December 2007, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).
ReplyDeleteIn an interview with Tom Keene on “Bloomberg Surveillance,” Silvia spoke from Charlotte North Carolina about the second quarter GDP numbers released earlier in the day.
“This is an economic recovery that doesn’t measure up to the traditional standards of the traditional post-World War II recovery,” remarked Silvia. “We don’t have the rebound in manufacturing jobs or domestic jobs, especially in the service sector, that we traditionally have.”
Total non-farm private employment stood at a seasonally adjusted 107.7 million in June, down 7.9 million from December 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Growth in the U.S. slowed to a 2.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter, less than forecast, reflecting a larger trade deficit and an easing in consumer spending, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington.
“Even at 2.5 percent growth, that’s not a fast enough pace of growth to generate the jobs or generate the new housing or to pay off all these entitlements that people have come to expect as the quote, ‘old normal,’ for the U.S.,” said Silvia, 61, who works at the company’s Wells Fargo Securities unit.
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/07/30/u-s-recovery-isn’t-recovering-fast-enough-says-wells-fargos-nyse-wfc-silvia/
@ DL
ReplyDeleteYeah, someday I'd like to learn other markets, but I have to master the YM first before I'm allowed to trade ES again.
Then, we have the option to trade other markets, but its approved by our ceo on a case by case basis.
In my dreams, I trade ES, wheat, silver, and crude... maybe a soft too.
@DL
ReplyDeletePakistan has nukes...
here's inflation for ya:
ReplyDeleteFriday, July 30th, 2010, 2:05 pm
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors today raised the dollar amount of mortgage fees that triggers mortgage disclosure requirements under the Truth in Lending Act and the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act of 1994 (HOEPA).
The Fed raised the trigger 2% to $592, from the current $579, beginning in January 2011. The trigger amount is now 48% higher than the $400 originally set by HOPEA in 1994.
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/30/fed-hikes-mortgage-fee-disclosure-trigger-2-in-2011
CV,
ReplyDeleteWe've been on fairly good terms with the Pakistani government since inception.
Agreed, DL, but how many wars can we start and not finish just from a practical standpoint alone?
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteGS looks like it will make a bearish harami. For a dark cloud cover you need to gap higher at the open and then close below the midpoint of the previous day.
@DL
ReplyDeleteso great... we do a REGIME change in Iran and we'll be on good terms with them as well...
... analog thinking
Great point, CV. Actually, Pakistan is probably the biggest threat of them all, especially considering their questionable allegiances (at best to put it mildly) to us in our Afghanistan adventure.
ReplyDeletewhole move off the highs is corrective, a-b-c, if we don't close strong I'd look for another magik monday.
ReplyDeleteI dunno about that, DL. Pakistan is reportedly playing a "dual" role with us to get the aid money but then stay on good terms with their own extremists. They are hardly our "allies", by any definition of the word.
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeletewhat do you think of the candle on BZQ today?
Meanwhile, the other celebrity wedding might be off now. Levi's ex is apparently preggers. LOL. At this point, I almost WANT to see the white trash family in the White House just for shits and giggles.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/30/levi-johnston-ex-lanesia_n_664897.html
karen -
ReplyDeletethx to ur link, now i'm long larissa too.
ben, it was looking good until 21 min ago.. let's see the close.. everything keys off the indices so it hardly matters what the individual tickers read..
ReplyDeleteLOL
ReplyDeleteTNX at 2.91...
Rally on equities! :-)
Insane market. I just don't have the stomach for it.
ReplyDelete@Manny
ReplyDeleteNothing to worry about...
Somebody's PATTERN RECOGNITION SOFTWARE from TD Ameritrade probably just recognized a H&S pattern and "fired off the trade"...
Larissa hot, Karen hotter...
ReplyDeleteIf you have disposable income, invest with me.
We will dispose of it.
cv -
ReplyDelete"It's going to come from individual implementation"
'xactly why i'm look for the engineer(s) who'll design this super-micro-mini-in-the-utility-room unit. i'd buy stock in their start-up and a franchise to sell/install. a little fed green subsidy to homeowners and a requirement that local utilties have to buy every homeowner's excess power would mean a lot fewer coal-powered plants would be built for some time to come