Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Morning Audibles 7.13.10 -

It's easy to grin
When your ship has come in
And you have the stock market beat
But the man worthwhile
Is the man who can smile
When his shorts are too tight in the seat
Judge Smails


Just a simple chart here as the bulls still seem to be in charge here trying desperately to make Doug Kass & Abbey Joseph Cohen like geniuses.


Even a bear would have to acknowledge that despite 5 straight green candles, equities probably still have a little more room to wander on the upside...


Based on the "look" of the chart, CV is looking at several different levels.


- The candles have pierced their upper bollingers (which isn't really a MAJOR indicator, but put it on the checklist).
- DAILY candles aren't showing any negative divergence yet, but the shorter timeframes (like 5 and 10 minutes are).
- Since the flash crash, a lot of work has been done in a PRICE CHANNEL (indicated by the blue lines). I left out the "tails" of some of those candles, or cases where the CLOSING LEVEL fell back into the channel promptly.
- Could we do some activity in creating an UPPER price channel? That would bring some of Andy's ideas of 1150 level into play if it happens
- Overhead resistance MAY be provided by the 200MA &/or the 50MA
- From an "18's" perspective, probably 1098 would be a likely target
- Some higher FIBS have yet to be tested (either vs. 1131, or, vs. 1220)
- What's interesting to CV is that that "piercing" candle (at 1131) occurred on the opex Friday (for June)... Could we be setting up for a replay scenario?
- We've now had two closes ABOVE the wicked June 29th candle... Another close above that level (today), ought to give some bulls some confidence.


$COMP is probably, silently, making its DARK CROSS today (which is unlikely to be heralded because Intel reports (with Google to follow on Thursday)...


All in all, another "ho-hum" day...


Judge Smails:


"Good, good. You know, despite what happened, I'm still convinced that you have many fine qualities. I think you can still become a gentleman someday if you understand and abide by the rules of decent society. There's a lot of...well, badness in the world today. I see it in court every day. I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. I didn't want to do it- I felt I owed it to them. The most important decision you can make right now is what you stand for... goodness... or badness."



317 comments:

  1. expecting another brutel day here.I guess we will touch spx 1130 near future.
    DP

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  2. believe Jim Cramer put in his "market has hit lows of the year" call yesterday. So, another rung in the sentiment ladder, and sort of a smack for all those that were noting he was bearish a couple weeks ago, what did those people think, he wasn't going to flip as soon as we went up again?
    hahaha get real.

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  3. @McF (from other thread)

    "Fully 69% are bullish in Asia; just 38% on Europe (in fact, 40% see the European markets falling). And, it is inflation that poses the “greater” threat to portfolio performance than deflation — 45% of respondents indicated that and 60% said they expect inflation to be higher over the coming year. Only 34% indicated they expect deflation to be the greater threat."

    That doesn't seem all that unusual to me...

    What you have to consider is J6P's definition of INFLATION vs. DEFLATION... (No an, er-um, "economist")...

    J6P doesn't know anything about CPI, "deflators", or the price of any commodity on the Chicago Merc...

    What J6P DOES know are:

    - The price of gas at the pump
    - The price of a movie ticket
    - A bag of Doritos
    - His/her cellphone bill
    - His/her cable TV bill
    - Heating & Air Conditioning bill
    - Insurance premiums
    - etc.

    J6P is worried about INFLATION, trust me...

    And even if we get DEFLATION, that's not going to help him very much on most of those things I just mentioned there...

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  4. Cramer:

    "Housing has officially reached a bottom"

    June 2009

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  5. They have to make their "the bottom is in" calls now...

    If not, they'll never be able to make their "NOBODY COULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING" calls later...

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  6. good morning !! it does seem as tho the day is going to be on the maddening side : )

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  7. Good morning karen

    Oddly...AAPL looks to open slightly red...

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  8. I'm pissed last week I abandoned my belief we would hit 1090-1109.

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  9. Morning all...

    Are we having fun yet?

    I see the party started early this morning...

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  10. gold is saying QE forever.. up $20.

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  11. hey, all, a brand new GOLD EXCHANGE shop just opened on the main street in my town!

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  12. You think there will be a gap on the open? lol

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  13. @CV -- I've posted here several times anonymously. I've followed AT after discovering him at TBP a long time ago -- before his old blog formed. I have been looking at the charts and thinking about the "18" concept (which interestingly, I've only read about here which says a lot since I read almost every trading blog out there). Anyway, 18 up from yesterday's $SPX close of 1078 is 1096. The 50 SMA is at 1097.74 as of yesterday's close -- a tiny one point higher than 18 up from yesterday. We opened beneath the 50 on the day of the "flash crash" and haven't broken it to the upside since. If this is really P3, or whatever you want to call it, I would expect it to continue to hold. After the downturn began, we only revisited the 200 SMA one time (around the peak of wave 2) and we are still relatively early on in this downturn (I expect.) All comments, critiques, etc welcome. Thanks for keeping this place going -- I'm sure I'm not the only faithful but relatively silent reader.
    --Jennifer

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  14. And Portugal is not about Portugal...

    But theres nothing to see there...

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  15. @ Jennifer

    Comment: Dont be shy.

    :)

    We need more ladies around here.

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  16. aapl owners disappointed to say the least... gotta look at the charts.. bummer about 1080.

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  17. @Jennifer

    On the "18" concept...

    I think the reference here is more to the extent that 1098 is a major HUB number for those divisions...

    There was a list of those numbers published here last week or so...

    Something like 1098, 1044, 990, 1152 being major "18's" because they were multiples of 3 of 18...

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  18. All this GREEN and AAPL is down 1 percent and change...

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  19. @CV, and Ben, re Inflation in Asia - People of my generation( people born in 70s and later) havn't ever experienced deflation. It's entrenched in our minds - buy real assets - land, gold, anything you can touch and hoard - as govts print away). The real first shock was Mar. 09. LOL.

    From Canada(India).

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  20. KISSing: 1093.67 the 50ema.. turned us back last time (with a few points leeway.. the downtrend line is my top (1101ish).. so past that changes everything.

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  21. What up with the creepy DL poser?

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  22. CV@9:35.. you cleared that up perfectly.. : )

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  23. CV, 8:59

    dude, that was a mutual fund manager survey Rosenberg was listing there, not a joe sixpack survey, I'm showing you what the pro's are saying, many of the survey's being cited as "overly bearish" are what J6P says.

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  24. @karen

    I'm not surprised that much that there is an attempt to "put some distance" from 1080...

    This kind of reminds me of the BREAKAWAY from the 1116 - 1120 levels...

    I'm not saying that it'll get "reeled back in" (like that OPEX day in June we hit 1131)... But it has that same "touch & go" feel to it...

    More precisely... What it gives me a "feeling" may happen would be that if the move off of 1010 ends up being an ABC... Now there is room for a move back down BELOW 1080 that may actually find some support...

    If that happens, I'd expect the candle on that day to look like a "hammer"...

    BULLS REALLY would get some confidence in seeing something like that...

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  25. and yeah, the DL thing last night that was strange, I don't like the anon drive-by comments and I didn't like that last night either.

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  26. you know part of the reason I'm angry about the DL thing is that most of us regulars here have balls enough to get a screen handle, make calls, and live with them right or wrong. If you are going to make fun of DL for being bullish then at least get a handle so we can compare calls.

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  27. you all are scaring me.. should i look and see what happened last night?

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  28. You know, not even the I-Man is trading this at the moment.

    It would take balls of steel for me to come in and fade this... and we'd have to pull back to 10220 at least on YM for me to want to tag along...

    Going to sit it out for awhile and reset the compass.

    I'll let you know when I trade, (probably be in about 5 min, lol...)

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  29. re: 18

    That 18 cluster is also right around max pain for options.

    I think bears have to stick a fork in the ii of 3 wave, as pointed out here there were a lot of reasons to be skeptical, I think this morning puts that count to rest. Dan and EWI are likely to give it up before the week is out, I'm thinking the market will make them.

    If you zoom out now on the bigger frame it looks like a big 3 waves down much more than a 5 if you are being objective.

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  30. @I,

    I'll likely close out those call options from yesterday before 12 est.

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  31. @McF (9:41)

    Understood...

    I guess we're really talking about different things then... I wasn't making comments on the survey itself...

    Instead, I was just making observations about J6P himself (in general)...

    Bottom line is... Many of us here believe we are heading towards DEFLATION... I'd agree with that idea, however, there is actually INFLATION that goes along with it...

    It mostly occurs with "frivolous food items" (the box of popcorn at the movies)... or the bag of Doritos you buy at the supermarket...

    Incremental higher prices (and/or smaller portions at the same price)...

    They sure fill those bags with a lot of air though don't they?

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  32. @ Ben

    Nice f*ckin trade homie.

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  33. BTW...

    Whoever did the "drive by" on DL, I promise you it wasn't me...

    CV is known to play some shenanigans now and then... but that wasn't me...

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  34. I was really pissed when they made me switch to dow last week, but I actually kinda like it...

    I do miss the spx tho.

    Not at the point where I can watch two at once... and cant even imagine working in crude and some fx on top... traders who can do that are a real marvel.

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  35. why do i think this rally will be met with selling : )

    jcc/$copper isn't buying into this rally.. i'm gonna check some of the retailers next.

    not to say i don't feel blind-sided.

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  36. @all,

    did any of you catch BR's post yesterday regarding the "2 trillion on corporate balance sheets"

    i made mention when this first came out that it was complete nonsense, BR's post was very good

    Ford is near the top of the list, with 46 billion in cash and ....wait for it...66 billion in debt. And people are so confused about why the "cash" which btw, it isn't all cash, isn't being spent.

    A little critical thought by more people would be refreshing, but hey, you heard it from the Fed, must be right.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/corporate-cash-top-20-firms-635-billion/

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  37. CV,

    your obs on J6P,...spot on of course.

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  38. as i suspected.. jcg down, anf down, gps down, lulu black candle at resistance. xrt

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  39. Thought this was a weird one:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/middle_east/10610451.stm

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  40. @karen

    All the big (reporting) banks are up... C, BAC, JPM (all report the end of this week)...

    I'd like to add some shorts here, but it's hard to get in front of that...

    I might have to wait to SELL THE NEWS on Friday...

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  41. I'm guessing waterfalls coming soon to a screen near you.

    Once we hit 1103, head for the bunkers.

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  42. And on the tape, Karen...

    The tide will turn when no one thinks it will... we're getting there.

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  43. Hello Peeps
    don't forget that today is TURNAROUND TUESDAY

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  44. @McF (10:00)

    This is why CV says a person needs to take as much CASH as they can and convert it into "goods" as soon as possible...

    Because in either INFLATION or DEFLATION, the relative cost (or availability) of those goods is not going to be favorable...

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  45. @McFearless -- Mish has blogged a ton about the fake cash on balance sheets recently. He has thoroughly debunked this myth.
    -Jennifer

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  46. alright I'm out of the call....that felt dirrty...lol.

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  47. Jennifer,

    I must have missed those, I've been doing more chart study so Mish sort of got pushed to the back of my reading list. I'll go check out his posts thanks.

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  48. we've got an RSI at ~55, would have prefered to see a fail at 50 for the real bearish case.

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  49. lol, how many headlines am I going to read today explain that stocks are "up on earnings"

    AA is one of the worst run companies in the S&P...give me a break already.

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  50. Karen, 10:01

    I've been thinking about going short the XLF but I haven't been able to find a good entry. I have Meredith whispering in my ear to do it, then I watch the Top Step videos and I know banks have been putting bullish action on the XLF in the options pits.

    I'm not going to beat those guys going against them...

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  51. @McFearless -- there is a guy named Mattco who posts frequently at Slope of Hope. He either works on the floor or has some sort of live feed from the floor. I distinctly remember that throughout the day of the 2nd he reported that the big banks were aggressively buying up XLF. Did I save myself? No. But, live and learn.
    -Jennifer

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  52. FAZ back below 14 this morning.. really. wonder how low spy volume will end up today..

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  53. Ben @ 10:05, fantastic trade : )

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  54. Tuesday, July 13th, 2010, 9:10 am
    UK-based Cambridge Place Investment Management filed a complaint in a Massachusetts court alleging 15 US banks provided false or misleading information about subprime mortgage investments.

    The banks allegedly offered or sold roughly $2.4bn of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) by providing misrepresenting information about the underlying subprime mortgages.



    Among the defendants in the case are Morgan Stanley (MS: 25.26 +2.85%), Citigroup (C: 4.22 +2.68%), Credit Suisse Securities (CS: 43.168 +0.79%), RBS Securities (RBS: 13.93 +2.58%), Deutsche Bank Securities (DB: 63.50 +2.02%), UBS Securities (UBS: 14.71 +1.52%), Goldman Sachs (GS: 139.4854 +1.63%), JP Morgan Securities (JPM: 40.13 +2.40%), Banc of America Securities (BAC: 15.52 +2.04%), Barclays Capital and Bearn Stearns.

    http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/13/uk-investment-firm-sues-15-us-banks-after-losing-1-2bn-on-subprime-rmbs

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  55. @Jennifer,

    Hey welcome. Yeah, thanks to Nic I'm watching the Top Step videos every day, they have been very valuable....their warnings about XLF and also on the VIX have been big money winners (or savers if you are a bear like me)

    I think it was Nic that pointed out yesterday was the lowest volume day of 2010. I've got mixed feelings about that I suppose.

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  56. thanks all....really though, I have shorts on as well that aren't working out so well at the moment...lol.

    If I actually were very smart I would have found better ways to trade my top two ideas coming into this year, they were huge money winners but my accounts don't really show as much, up, but not really reflective of how big a winner the long dollar/short china strategy for early 2010 was.

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  57. Arrggh this modem works great (at home) but not here. Dowmstream speed is 0.5Mb here but 4.8Mb at home. Damn walls. Still I have my Investor R/T running so that's a plus.

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  58. this is some big news in the sports world:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/bbo_obit_steinbrenner

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  59. i am actually upset about today's move. bot some drv and missed faz, so far.

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  60. Check this out, RR shared this last night:

    "In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
    "This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

    by Alan Greenspan

    I found this line in particular so very interesting:

    Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth.

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  61. AR

    Sorry I didn't "get" what you were trying to do. The iphone fallout(closing off existing unlimited data plans on At&t) is really killing wireless internet. It's not an option where I am so I don't know that much about it in practice. The only set ups I have seen are very high priced fixed (not mobile) systems.

    Concrete and brick are mortal enemies of radio waves. You also said something about an antenna, that may help, but it depends on the antenna. A directional antenna is not going to help with brick. You need something very large, to capture the few waves that are able to penetrate it. This may not be practical at work.

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  62. Ahem...[fitting tin foil hat on securely]...

    So, "they" trot out the Prechter call and help us sell off. Now, with some selling pressure out of the way, "they" want the mood to swing positive during earnings season. What *better* way for them to "sell into strength" than for positive news to come out during earnings season and draw in some retail buyers?

    So, maybe better to get out of the way during earnings season?

    ...[Removing off hat]... Okay, what did I miss?

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  63. awoke to a blue sky here, though.. will wonders never cease!

    i can see 1140-1150 on the $spx..

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  64. @ wuns

    Been reading up on some Sun Tzu?

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  65. Wunsacon,

    that argument might carry a little more weight if it wasn't so obvious that there has been massive distribution going on since last September.

    I.I. buy climaxes hit an all time record earlier this year...it shows strong hands selling to weak hands.

    Prechter doesn't move markets, if you listen to the vast majority of people, he doesn't even matter at all.

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  66. @wunsacon

    The only thing you missed is the fact that, despite headlines...

    THERE ARE NO RETAIL BUYERS anymore...

    So in the end, with these LOW VOLUME melt-ups, the algos are really just playing a game of HOT POTATO, (or musical chairs)...

    Whoever blinks first (or in this case, stays too long) is going to get RIPPED on the downside...

    A hedge fund or two will blow up in the process... Less and less players in the game...

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  67. Ben, please review Why do we have taxation? one more time if you don't remember it.. thru the years i've posted it ad nauseam!

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  68. BTW...

    AAPL was one of the few stocks that went to a new high after the flash crash...

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  69. The bull is back and we're gonna be trouble, hey la, hey la, the bull is back!

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  70. Bears would do good to keep their teeth and claws honed sharp until Friday...

    Could be a doosy.

    Thats where we meet the REAL trendline off the Apr high, (as well as intersect a major gann off the May 2008 high) and also where we get reports from C, GE, BAC...



    Alot of pump, hope, delusion, and sly distribution to occur between now and then... waters will be choppy, but rising.

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  71. All gaps filled on NAZ, SPX, DOW.

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  72. You guys probably know this already, but Corey Rosenblum has a nice update re: where we are and where we might go. http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
    -Jennifer

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  73. I-Man, I regret reading so few assignments back in school. But, oddly enough, the past year, I at least skimmed The Art of War:

    http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/17405

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  74. OH yeah, numbers...

    About 10480 on YM. Is that close to an "18", Mr 18?

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  75. "But government has no money of its own, and payment of its debt means that the taxpayers are further coerced into paying bondholders. Such coercion can never be licit from the libertarian point of view. For not only does increased taxation mean increased coercion and aggression against private property, but the seemingly innocent bondholder appears in a very different light when we consider that the purchase of a government bond is simply making an investment in the future loot from the robbery of taxation. "

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/17322/the-bad-policy-spiral

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  76. McHappy 10:45

    there is still the 1106 gap from 6/22 that EWI mentioned last night which would also be the 78.6% retrace of what they label circle i down.

    I think the count is total bullshit personally, but it's there. They also note that Primary Wave 2 high in April ended on an intra-day spike as did Minor 2. Again, I don't think those are the proper labels, but if you are still running with the bear count.....

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  77. The next few minutes to an hour should be telling as to where we are.

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  78. I can't find the No double Dip or slower growth ETF's to trade.

    anyone know the tickers?

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  79. Karen,

    That SafeHaven article is far from the whole story. For a balanced viewpoint, you really gotta consider this:
    http://www.theonion.com/articles/us-economy-grinds-to-halt-as-nation-realizes-money,2912/

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  80. In spite of what I said a minute ago, I still think we could have a nasty reversal today... looking for 10170 on YM.

    10220 should be a good resting point, probably what I'll target for my first short. Going to try to take a short around 10275 later, and aim for that 10220.

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  81. more bullish sentiment indicators that deny we are "too bearish"

    share buybacks

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  82. Karen, thats a great piece on taxation. Very nice, thx.

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  83. alright, I need to step away for a few hours folks. I nearly just gave myself a heart attack, thought I was looking at SPY and it showed 118, I yelled, then I realized it was GLD.

    moron.

    time to break be back later.

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  84. wunsacon, haha! i remember that onion piece.. but seriously, if we didn't have to pay taxes in us dollars, they would hold no value whatsoever... as it is people barter/exchange all the time to avoid sales taxes..

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  85. on quick question for the group before I bounce:

    Anyone here familiar with the workload to obtain the CMT designation?

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  86. OMG Karen, I read it without looking at the onion header. Too funny

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  87. McF
    I have been thinking about the CMT too ...

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  88. Nic,

    I'm thinking it will be work but not too hard given our background...I have other designations but they are all related to financial planning rather than trading.

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  89. as it is people barter/exchange all the time to avoid sales taxes...

    They're not supposed to...

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  90. In Italy & Greece...

    More than half the economy is UNDERGROUND to avoid taxes...

    It seems that's where Obama is forcing the US as well...

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  91. finally a new and great macro man post!!

    http://macro-man.blogspot.com/

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  92. The games people play: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayS1LW35dtRo
    European Banks Poised to Win Reprieve in Basel on Capital Rules



    By Yalman Onaran and Simon Clark

    July 13 (Bloomberg) -- European banks, rattled by investor uncertainty about their ability to withstand a sovereign-debt crisis, are poised to win a reprieve in Basel, Switzerland, this week as regulators from 27 countries shape new capital rules.

    A push to water down stringent standards proposed last year by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and to allow more time to implement them, is led by France and Germany, according to bankers, regulators and lobbyists involved in the talks. Representatives from the U.S. and the U.K., who have sought to rein in risk-taking, are willing to compromise on how capital is defined to reach an agreement at a committee meeting that begins tomorrow, the people said.

    Another concession may involve granting transition periods of up to 10 years to ease concerns of some member countries that their banks and economies won’t be able to bear the burden of tougher capital requirements until a recovery takes hold. As a result, the amount of capital European banks will be forced to raise in the next two years won’t be as much as investors fear.

    more...
    One proposal European banks and regulators tried to get rid of -- and that U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner advocated -- has survived and made it into the Toronto G-20 statement. That’s a plan to cap bank leverage by setting a ratio of assets to capital. While current Basel rules allow banks to assign weights to assets based on their risks, the leverage ratio would look at all assets without a risk assessment.

    European banks appear more highly levered than their U.S. counterparts partly because U.S. accounting rules allow more assets to be kept off balance sheets than European standards do. The two systems differ on which types of securitizations are included on the books and how derivatives contracts are netted.

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  93. karen's link is just further proof of the great illusion we all call money.

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  94. Mmmm...

    I just made an asparagus omlette... (using a new tip)...

    To make the omlette "fluffier" I beat in a teaspoon of sour cream into the eggs...

    Pretty good...

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  95. @Amen

    Now we're ALL marking to fantasy...

    Seriously... The only way J6P is EVER going to benefit from any of this is to just declare a debt holiday and stop paying bills altogether...

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  96. @cv: Which means it will NEVER happen in our lifetimes.

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  97. another nice chart from Maxcherry over at Dan's....look at the dates before you look at the charts:

    http://img709.imageshack.us/img709/4483/20072010.png

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  98. Ben

    On bended knee raise your right hand and repeat "I _____ believe wholeheartedly in the power of EMH, buying the dips, cast out all doomsayers and Gold is Satan incarnate."

    Congratulations you've just passed the CMT.

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  99. I know a fair amount about the CMT, Ben... enough to know that I'd rather trade.

    But in all seriousness, I have some stuff if you want I'll send it to you.

    I decided to pass, but its certainly a good program.

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  100. @McF (re: chart)

    I was comparing some of the same "mirror" images when I referred to the $COMP doing its DARK CROSS (which is happening either today or tomorrow)...

    The last time $COMP did a DARK CROSS was that exact same December '07 - Jan '08 timeframe...

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  101. CV.. just about to make an omelet for myself! I have creme fraiche to substitute for the sour cream.. : ) thanks for that! last night i made seared scallops in carrot juice and shallot reduction.. mmm.. served on a saute of arugula.. mmmm.

    walked out of costco yesterday with a case of stella, six bottles of wine, and a 1.75 L bottle of ketel one. oh, and a case of pellegrino.. thot the checker might ask if i was having a party! laughing...

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  102. Anyone think we end green today?

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  103. lol, you guys know I wasn't really going to leave.

    I, if you have anything you can send me I'll def. take a look. I'll need to decide if I want to take up that or Neely's wave book for the remainder of the year. In reading Neely's site I know I'm going to need a full laser focus for his book.

    C,

    yeah, it's something to note how those are lining up, even if I don't like the wave count big bears are rolling with right now.

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  104. Bob,

    it's all coming together, are bonds and the dollar going to keep going down from here and the market up or is it the other way around?

    it is the 1 quadrillion dollar question for the Fed, that's for sure.

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  105. When this pops, watch out below. You thought you saw all one trade before...

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  106. almost to my top.. if we get there, there will be no turning back.

    ReplyDelete
  107. McHappy, My thoughts of fading have faded...

    Just buying dips and keeping it simple.

    ReplyDelete
  108. @I-Man

    I don't know... If this move off 1010 ends up being "ABC-ish"...

    I could see the move ending at 1098, tracing back to 1054, then rallying past everything in a huge C...

    ReplyDelete
  109. Nice pullback entry in NQ right now... looking quite tasty.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Facing Looming Police Layoffs, Oakland Effectively Legalizes 44 Crimes

    http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/facing-looming-police-layoffs-oakland/

    ReplyDelete
  111. @karen

    That settles it... CV is packing his bags and moving to Oakland... :-)

    ReplyDelete
  112. CV,

    I keep getting reprimanded for trying to out-think...

    Trying hard to stay in the current trend (1min TF) and not get distracted by what MAY happen.

    Its a mental battle of wits between I and I.

    ReplyDelete
  113. I see 10yr yields pushing higher. I guess there were not enough buyers at 3.00%.

    ReplyDelete
  114. C,

    yeah, that's workable count, abc of B, with a big C wave down to follow after we reach 1150 or higher. think that was a few slides in on the last update.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Gmail was just advertising "claymore fixed income etf's"

    I really don't know anything about them, but who comes up with the names for these things. All I think of when I hear that are old John Wayne movies.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M18A1_Claymore_Antipersonnel_Mine

    ReplyDelete
  116. nice chart here as well, dan's got the wrong count imo, but his posters are giving all kinds of good links today:

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=w1

    ReplyDelete
  117. nearly 90 pts in 8 trading days.. the new normal !!

    ReplyDelete
  118. >> Gmail was just advertising "claymore fixed income etf's"

    Uh...be sure to plant those things facing away from you and away from me. Don't want to be near them if/when the currency deval trigger goes off.

    ReplyDelete
  119. I wish someone would flush out some weak longs so I could become one of them.

    LOL.

    ReplyDelete
  120. @I

    Sorry, don't calculate the DOW, but I do see todays SPX Hi/Lo 1080.65-1097.19 (1080-1098),

    coincidence or am I just making this crap up?

    mid point between 1134 major (21X54) and 1080 major (20X54) is 1107, lets see what happens at that price, if we get there...

    18

    ReplyDelete
  121. One of my books says that 35 is a harmonic for the dow.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Well one thing that has happened is that SPX has REAGAINED the trendline from the 3/09 lows through the May 25th low...

    That trendline was lost on the June 29th move for 8 days...

    However - the flipside is it put's everything into a wedge (from 1220 - 1131)...

    Which means, perhaps, a whole lot of sideways for a few days...

    ReplyDelete
  123. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  124. "coincidence or am I just making this crap up?"

    it's not a coincidence...markets are patterned, just not always the pattern we are looking for!

    ReplyDelete
  125. if we get any decent dip this week I'm buying calls again....

    ReplyDelete
  126. Well...

    The call CV made about "contemplating" buying C back in early May at 3.50 and holding it until earnings reporting and you might see $4.30 is turning out to be correct...

    C at $4.26

    Too bad the idea never left the "contemplation" phase for CV... :-(

    ReplyDelete
  127. Just saw your email from a while ago, ben. Thanks for the thoughts. That's the direction we are going at this point. Appreciate the thoughts though.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Karen is making me hungry ...

    ReplyDelete
  129. Manny,

    man, thanks for clarifying, I was thinking maybe you didn't want me sending stuff like that over.

    cool.

    ReplyDelete
  130. CV,

    in the spirit of that Holmes on Homes show, you could start C on C, with special guest, Prince Ally Wally, the Sultan of C.

    ReplyDelete
  131. hope you are feeling better today, Nic. I had a case of sleeping sickness yesterday.. couldn't keep my eyes open all day! had to nap after the close.. and today i have a case of market sickness : )

    ReplyDelete
  132. US Stripped of its AAA Credit Rating by a ratings agency in China

    U.S. Stripped of AAA Credit Rating...By China?!

    By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions

    Despite repeated warnings going back several years from Moody's, S&P et al that the U.S. could lose its top credit rating with ongoing fiscal deficits and heavy debts, the platinum-plated AAA rating of the United States seems all untouchable.

    The top notch rating certainly has helped with continuing debt financing and bolstered the confidence of some government officials. Secretary Geithner, for example, said in a February interview that the U.S. government "will never" lose its credit rating, despite big budget deficits and a newly raised debt ceiling of $14.3 trillion.

    Along came a Beijing-based rating agency--Dagong International Credit Rating Co. Its first order of business is to downgrade sovereign debt ratings on some major Western nations, while slamming its Western counterparts.

    "The reason for the global financial crisis and debt crisis in Europe is that the current international credit rating system does not correctly reveal the debtor's repayment ability."

    Dubbed as the world’s first “non-Western” sovereign credit rating agency, in its debut international report, Dagone (means Big Justice in Chinese) downshifted the US to AA with a negative outlook, while UK and France were given AA-; Belgium, Spain, Italy with A-.

    It also rates debt risk of the US above China, and listed the US as one of the countries with exposure to increasing borrowing costs and default risks.

    In June, the total US debt topped $13 trillion for the first time in history. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that the U.S. deficit will stand at 64% of GDP this year, rising to just over 96% by 2020.

    Concerned that high unemployment may force a double dip recession, the IMF just last week urged the United States to rein in its budget deficit.

    Some see Dagong’s report as mere political propaganda by Beijing to counter the repeated pressure by the U.S. on its yuan policy. Nevertheless, the national debt by country chart (below) should say that Dagong's assessment is not entirely baseless, regardless of any possible hidden agenda.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Not at all, ben. I just don't check that email as often as some others (I have too many email addresses these days!). Keep the thoughts coming! That's the main reason I keep coming back to these blogs.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Ben,

    Just my own thoughts here. Trying to figure this mess out. What if:

    Minor 1 was actually April 26-July 1st?

    Very short minute 1 and 2.

    Minute 3 April 29-May 25.

    Minute 4 May 26-June 21.

    Minute 5 June 21-July 1st.

    This would leave us in A of ABC to be completed the end of this month.

    This scenario does follow EW rules however the time relationships would be kind of sketchy to me.

    ReplyDelete
  135. this doesn't matter.. no worries!

    Tuesday, July 13th, 2010, 11:22 am
    The 60-plus-day delinquency rate for US prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) rose in the 37th consecutive month in June, according to Fitch Ratings.

    The credit-rating agency noted the "seriously" delinquent rate — of 60 days or more — within prime jumbo RMBS rose to 10.4% in June, up from 10.3% in May and 6.4% at the same time last year.

    http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/13/seriously-delinquent-prime-rmbs-rise-for-37th-straight-month-fitch-ratings

    ReplyDelete
  136. My 12:30 is just some thinking out loud.

    I'm still looking for a push in to 1100's followed by trap door.

    But just in case I'm wrong......

    ReplyDelete
  137. AmenRa @ 12:27

    The Dagong agency wouldn’t have done that without government approval.

    But in any case, nice to see a little honesty from a rating agency once in a while.

    ReplyDelete
  138. today is giving me 2008 flashbacks.. (late summer and fall) the parallels are frightening.. and as we know, we are doomed to repeat our mistakes.

    ReplyDelete
  139. McHappy,

    thanks, I haven't seen a lot of people run with that idea. The main thing I have issue with at first glance is both the complexity of form of your wave 3 compared to 1 as well as the amount of time as you say that it took compared to your wave 1. There is also lack of a clear extended impulse wave, and if we are going to impulse down in a big way we should likely see some sort of extended wave at the intial kick-off.

    ReplyDelete
  140. @karen

    Yeah wasn't it around July that "Paulson's bazooka" was first talked about?

    That idea sort of reminds me of the ECB right now...

    & Elections coming up...

    But hey - It's July

    ReplyDelete
  141. Ra,

    thanks for that link...China isn't messing around.

    I man brought up The Art of War earlier...in general, don't start a fight you can't win...somebody should tell Timmay.

    ReplyDelete
  142. well, every countertrend bounce since the high was basically stopped in it's tracks at the 50 day....if we can close above with some authority it's going to bring bulls out in legion I would think.

    ReplyDelete
  143. wonder who will enforce this?

    The City of Los Angeles Department of Consumer Affairs has advised us that on Thursday, July 8, 2010, a new law went into effect in the City of Los Angeles that makes mortgage lenders responsible for maintaining their foreclosed properties.

    Makes mortgage lenders responsible for maintaining the property as soon as they issue a Notice of Default.
    - Allows the City to fine mortgage lenders $1,000 per day per violaton, up to $100,000.
    - Requires mortgage lenders to register their inventory of homes in default with LA City to help building inspectors identify who owns foreclosed and abandoned homes.
    - Consumers can report problem properties to LA City’s 311 hotline.

    http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2010/07/12/l-a-gets-tough/

    ReplyDelete
  144. a commenter tackles Alcoa.. knocking off rose colored glasse:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/07/13/alcoas-view-of-the-economy/

    ReplyDelete
  145. bespoke is fun:

    Talk about a streaky market. The week before the July 4th holiday, the S&P 500 went down every single day. The index has gained every single day since then. http://www.bespokeinvest.com/

    ReplyDelete
  146. streaky indeed, hell, just look at March and april vs. May and June.

    Up and Down she goes, abusing everyone along the way.

    and people that say to go to cash and stay safe are laughed off the tv set. go figure.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Tuesday, July 13th, 2010, 11:41 am
    US District Judge Sidney Stein on Monday denied a request by Citigroup (C: 4.255 +3.53%) to dismiss a class-action suit by a group of pension funds and an insurance company that purchased bonds issued between May 2006 and August 2008.

    The case involves 48 bond offerings from which Citigroup was said to have raised more than $71bn while allegedly "failing to truthfully and fully disclose critical information about its financial condition to investors, notably information pertaining to its 'toxic mortgage-linked exposures.'"

    http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/13/district-judge-upholds-mortgage-bondholder-suit-against-citigroup

    ReplyDelete
  148. Karen

    LA's shadow inventory just increased exponentially.

    ReplyDelete
  149. What does it mean that Krugman is now saying this:

    What I take from this is that deflation isn’t some distant possibility — it’s already here by some measures, not far off by others. And of course there isn’t some magic boundary effect when you cross zero; falling inflation is raising real interest rates and making debt problems worse as we speak.


    This is something I've thought about a few years, how the recognition of deflation would take hold.

    thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  150. Just got short, McHappy... you can get long now.

    ReplyDelete
  151. @ Giles Straightarrow

    Could you please be so kind as to call Lord Blankfiend and have him sell the spu's and buy the 2's?

    ReplyDelete
  152. (TraderMark) If you are a cynic like I am, and view Wall Street as a place where insider information rules and the SEC is busy viewing porn on their computers while ignoring Bernie Madoff tipoffs for a decade, the "action" today in Citigroup (C) says Friday's earning report should be quite good

    http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/07/bookkeeping-starting-citigroup-c.html

    ReplyDelete
  153. Sell em Lloyd! Do it for I-Man...

    ReplyDelete
  154. note declining volume on C, since Tues, July 6, as price climbed.

    ReplyDelete
  155. U.S. sells 10-yr debt at lowest yield in 15 months
    1:08 PM ET 7/13/10

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department sold $21 billion in 10-year notes at a yield of 3.119% on Tuesday, the lowest level at an auction since April 2009. Bidders offered to buy 3.09 times the amount of debt sold, versus an average of 3.35 times at the last four reopenings of 10-year notes. Indirect bidders, a group that includes foreign central banks and is used as a proxy for overseas demand, purchased 41.7%, compared to an average of 36.9% of the last four sales. Direct bidders -- including domestic money managers -- bought another 9.8%, versus 16.2% on average. The broader bond market fell further, under pressure as equities rose. Yields on 10-year notes , which move inversely to prices, rose 4 basis points to 3.11%.

    ReplyDelete
  156. New Vix sonar report:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbMiXPXpw1s

    ReplyDelete
  157. nic,

    sounds like a major battle on the VIX btwn bulls and bears, the giant trade aside.

    ReplyDelete
  158. CV, am i posting too much?! okay i'll quit : ) i'm not anxious or frantic, really.. just looking around.. already exhausted the gossip sites, laughing.

    ReplyDelete
  159. Retail Sales tomorrow...

    Jeez - I wonder what they'll report then ADJUST two months later?

    ReplyDelete
  160. @karen

    "contango" was in reference to the VIX curve...

    not two posts from you & Nic - lol

    ReplyDelete
  161. McF @ 1:04

    There may be merit to his arguments, or not.

    But he is one who, no doubt, would like to see Federal spending rise until it hits 50% of GDP.

    ReplyDelete
  162. CV is still... still on the bullish VIX side...

    144MA...

    You watch, we're going to get one wicked selloff day here within a couple of days...

    VIX will scorch back up to the high 20's or higher, then if SPX has further to retrace, we'll get the VIX coming back down again where it is now again...

    I'll be a monkeys uncle if it's going back into the teens...

    ReplyDelete
  163. DL,

    yeah, that's the thing with Beard2, it's always so political with him, I'm not sure how to take all these comments he's been making.

    ReplyDelete
  164. @McF

    he's just front running for OWEBama...

    It probably means OWEBama is about to come up with some wonderful plan to save...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l91ISfcuzDw

    That will be right before the next $5T in expenditures floats by...

    ReplyDelete
  165. Get your Owe-Bama T-shirts here:

    http://www.cafepress.com/hyperbolegear/6831008

    ReplyDelete
  166. I wonder when "Grasso" from FAST MONEY is going to flip bullish?

    ReplyDelete
  167. CV @ 1:41

    Looking for a good short entry point?

    ReplyDelete
  168. Bullish? Grasso?

    lol, we all saw the yell-a-thon he tried to start with Bobby P, then there was this from 7/9/10, aka, last Friday:

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/10803062/fast-money-recap-bearish-outlook.html

    Steve Grasso concurred, saying reality is going to set in as the market heads lower. "The short side is the smarter money."

    ReplyDelete
  169. Yeah baby!

    I decided I'm not looking at charts anymore...

    I'm just going to fade all Grasso's calls...

    ReplyDelete
  170. that dude couldn't be a bigger tool

    ReplyDelete
  171. Ben,

    In your thoughts about Krugman...it has already been noted that PK has had a 180 in his thinking about deficit spending and big government since the Reagan era. Because of this, I think you have to take him much less seriously than a Hussman, for instance. I see Krugman as an ivory tower type, but poisoned even from that stance because he's allowed himself to become a politician ex-officio...(because of his Nobel)..

    Hussman however also a PH.D. makes his living now with his mutual fund, and I noticed that this week, after a very nice letter Monday morning, that the blog universe has "discovered" him anew...

    ReplyDelete
  172. Does anyone hear 1100's calling?

    ReplyDelete
  173. Mr Topstep time:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbMiXPXpw1s

    ReplyDelete
  174. lot of truth Bruce, lot of truth there.

    Here is a question I have about Hussman,... why a mutual fund?

    Not sure I understand the appeal given the skills he has.

    ReplyDelete
  175. Afternoon all...

    Didn't watch the 10y auction as closely as usual, b/c we are not really involved, having moved out of Ts when we went sub-3.00% and 4.00%, sitting in corporates and even a spot of junk for now. Rate risk is minimal, and spread risk is deferred by corporate accounting magic. So we really don't need to hedge here either, and the trading book is idle, waiting for opportunities to hammer Johnny and Goldfinger.

    It wasn't a great auction, and we aren't anxious to re-enter USTs until it's clear all the midsummer madness is over. Let's see what the 30y does, usually they are stronger and that could make for a turn-around Wednesday. We are buying a very small amount of long bonds today.

    To LB the parallels with summer 2008 are obvious. Lloyd has buggered off to the Hamptons and told Giles and the JV trading desk to gun the futures up and down from time to time until the big boys get back after Labor Day and sell the piss out of this market.

    ReplyDelete
  176. B_in_T @ 1:50

    I have noticed that the vast majority of academic economists (who make themselves available to the MSM) want higher taxes and bigger government. (Greg Mankiw is one of the few exceptions).

    ReplyDelete
  177. @karen

    So karen... How did that creme fraiche work out for you in the omlette?... tasty?

    ReplyDelete
  178. DL@1:42, "a good short.." ? rather antithetical !!

    LB, seemed like a fantastic auction to me--for the borrowers, that is.

    ReplyDelete
  179. @DL

    It's not hard to imagine that "speaking in favor" of bigger government (and spending), will endear onesself with the majority of politicians...

    The GOP only talks about "austerity" when it is the minority party...

    ReplyDelete
  180. just got my water bill.. outrageous at over $455..

    ReplyDelete
  181. CV @ 1:58

    "The GOP only talks about austerity when it is the minority party"

    I see you've been reading the propaganda on Ritholtz's site.

    ReplyDelete
  182. @karen

    Just wait until they start taking them down with "1" handle yields...

    The borrowers will be ecstatic...

    The "taker downers"?... J6P (who by that time will be required BY LAW to buy them with what's left of his/her 401K...

    ReplyDelete
  183. CV
    I see you changed your blog title description.
    I was going to suggest:
    "SURVIVOR CAPITAL, and just in case the world doesn't end - CRONY CAPITAL"

    ReplyDelete
  184. @karen

    CV's water bill?

    Maryland: $9
    WVA: $0

    ReplyDelete
  185. Karen @ 1:59

    Take a lot of showers? Water the lawn?

    ReplyDelete
  186. ...and that's irrigating stuff to the tune of about 50-100 gallons per day...

    ReplyDelete