A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane has answered the phone and will be returning soon.
SPXBullish long day. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) has fallen asleep waiting for a retest. Closed above 1078.87 (fib using low). Still above the SMA(21) but below the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above the weekly 3LB mid. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1070.25). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Now below the 61.8% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 84.43).
VIXBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid & monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55),the SMA(21) & SMA(89). Held the SMA(144) wink wink. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).
GOLDBullish long day. Below the SMA(21) and tested the SMA(55) but failed. Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1240.70).
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. Tested weekly 3LB reversal but failed. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2623).
JNKBullish long day (takuri go banzai). Tested the 50.0% retrace (passed) and the 61.8% retrace (failed). Now above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBullish short day. GS is fighting back (cue Rocky theme). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. Tested SMA(55) and failed. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 131.14).
AAPLBearish short day. Still below the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Tested the SMA(89) and passed. Still below trendline using recent lows. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).
10YR YIELDBullish long day (the possible dragonfly doji ran into the windshield). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 29.27).
BPHammer day that has followed the 3rd real gap in this move. Still above the 14.6% retrace (using recent low). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tony, there is a disturbance in the force. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 27.02).
take a look at this chart, from a poster at Kenny's site:
ReplyDeletehttp://twitpic.com/250tru/full
McHappy, dan is basically running with a count similar to what you were talking about today, with the idea we have a LD in wave 1 which according to EWP book will see a wave 2 retrace of 78.6%. I don't like the count much...but it's out there for review.
Guys,
ReplyDeleteThese earnings make me think the market is going up for awhile.
Just the way I look at it.
Pretty "saucy" market....
ReplyDeleteThe guys latching on to the "leading diagonal" models are "reaching" now...It's highly unlikely.
1080 and 1058 look like first and second level supports on the cash S&P now.
It's definitely ripe for a pullback, but daytrader types should be buying the next pullback....
earnings thought o' the evening:
ReplyDeleteThe trends in earnings and stock prices sometimes even move in opposite directions, such as in the 1973-74 bear market when S&P earnings rose every quarter as the S&P declined 50%
Ra-
ReplyDeletethat creditcane moniker cracks me up- I envision a whirling mass of USD destroying everything in its path
also- my man Robert Reich- dude's been growing on me-
". . .in 1928 the richest 1 percent of Americans received 23.9 percent of the nation's total income. After that, the share going to the richest 1 percent steadily declined. New Deal reforms, followed by World War II, the GI Bill and the Great Society expanded the circle of prosperity. By the late 1970s the top 1 percent raked in only 8 to 9 percent of America's total annual income. But after that, inequality began to widen again, and income reconcentrated at the top. By 2007 the richest 1 percent were back to where they were in 1928—with 23.5 percent of the total."
hmmm . . .interesting . . .maybe we are in another time of redress. . .as far as being a populist- can Obama compete w/ this speech guaranteeing a right to a job and fair pay?
2nd Bill of Rights
AT,
ReplyDeletelets just say what it is...it's a bullshit count the LD, the ii of 3 count was bs and so is that count.
and Mchappy,
ReplyDeletethat wasn't to knock your count, it's just that people with a lot of experience counting waves should be able to give up bad counts easier rather than hiding behind the idea they are merely presenting the most probable count in their minds.
and AT, your exchange with klout last night at Dan's, wow, Im still laughing man. That was priceless.
ReplyDeleteoh, and I'm no math wizard, but I can figure out that ii retraced more than 50%....ufb man.
Thanks for the USDCAD chart. I see the CAD and AUD as leading indicators for risk and the big trendline on the indices, the top of the channel in EURUSD etc mean we certainly are at an inflection point.
ReplyDeleteHow far we retrace will tell us where to next.
Crude at the 50fib level too.
ReplyDeletevia Jesse's Cafe- Whalen's take down of Krugman
ReplyDelete"The U.S. cannot make any real progress toward a stable environment for creating jobs and growing private business so long as leading members of the economics profession such as Paul Krugman continue to pretend that the old model of borrow and spend is sustainable."
no doubt
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/chris-whalen-sensibly-calls-for-reforms.html
it won't all stop until it blows up ahab, I think that much is clear. Thinkers like Whalen have been saying this for many many years, not only are "they" not listening, they are accelerating the old model.
ReplyDeletehttp://red-pill-blue-pill.blogspot.com/2010/07/chris-whalen-big-dog.html
ReplyDeletemy impression-
ReplyDeleteI think business- not the giant public money sucking corporate monsters-
but the other businesses- who make and sell a product- make money the old fashioned way-
would be more inclined to invest and expand in a country that identifies it's long term issues and attempts to control the deficit and indebtedness-
but possibly I am just a provincial rube
. . .however . . .since I live in the Capital- it may be hard for me to qualify my ideas as those from a provincial rube-
ReplyDeleteso maybe- I am just in need of re-education-
"I love big brother"
Ahab, your lack of faith is disturbing. Please start attending meetings at your nearest chapter:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.studentsfororwell.org
LOL. Don't know how I came across this. But, here's Michael Moore giving it to CNN tool Blitzer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpKoN40K7mA&feature=channel
ReplyDeleteAhab, bring Moore with you to those meetings.
I just gotta laugh and re-gurgitate this one...
ReplyDeleteFrom last Friday (July 9th)...
Major Bond-Equity Divergence Implies Stocks Are Mispriced By 60 Points; Goldman Warns Not To "Chase Equity Bounce"
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/major-bond-equity-divergence-implies-stocks-are-mispriced-60-points-goldman-warns-not-chase-
Here are Goldman's associated points:
While as discussed on the prior slides there is scope for Wednesday’s bounce in equity markets to extend a bit further, the correlation chart shown opposite makes us feel uncomfortable chasing it, as with the bounce in early-June
This chart shows U.S. 10-year yields in green overlaid with the S&P in blue.
It highlights that the rolling correlation between U.S. 10-year yields and the S&P has picked up since late- April.
Importantly from a trading perspective yields have tended to be the lead indicator for the broader trend over recent weeks.
A divergence is currently developing between the two with equities rising further than yields would imply “they should”. The last something similar developed, in early-/mid-June, it was equities which turned out to be “wrong”, eventually again moving lower to recouple with the level implied by yields.
In conclusion while it’s quite possible the current bounce can run further, we would be uncomfortable actively chasing it as in June
---
THE SQUID... Doing what it does best... Getting JOHNNY on the wrong side of the trade...
Let's see... If equities were "mis-priced" by 60 points last Friday morning...
ReplyDeleteI guess they're "mis-priced" by 100 points as we speak...
After tomorrows MELT-UP, who knows how much they'll be "mis-priced"? :-)
Too funny, CV. Reminds me of *this* gem:
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/citibank-to-investors-we-suggest-you.html
wunsacon-
ReplyDeleteit appears you know your Orwell-
I say that line all the time and you are only one who ever caught it-
in the movie version- John Hurt saying that line- powerful stuff there-
Richard Burton's last movie by the way
Nic, help me out for a minute please.. i agree 100% that the currencies are indicative of the equity trend-commodity trend-the ONE TRADE.. however, i can't see which one is LEADING. Not to discount anyone's skill right now, but it seems to be a daily coin toss.. and when one is right, one is actually just lucky.
ReplyDeleteOne of my favorite expressions: It's better to be lucky than smart
AR, thank you, for attempting to make sense of the nonsense, btw.. but i'm running with 2008 right now. may as well throw up (pun intended) your favorite music video and call it a wrap. and, then, not to upset the Wavers, but i can come up with all sorts of plausible scenarios, too!
ReplyDeletedisclosure: i'm dble dipping tonight. cab and raisins.
ReplyDelete@McFear:
ReplyDeleteWell, in many ways I'm VERY comforted when I see all these various "EW Counts" all over the place. Anyone who believes that "technical analysis" is a "self-fulfilling" prophecy need only comb through these various EW sites to realize that that idea is BS.
You could sit 5 pretty good Ellioticians in a room with the same charts and reach several different conclusions.
Only the fullness of time can differentiate...
Andy, must you keep that avatar?
ReplyDeleteanother view: The Herd Leaves the Market to the Bots.
ReplyDelete@Ben
ReplyDeleteI was most definitely trying to make a count fit what many, even the experts, are calling for.
Personally, I'm not giving up the minute ii yet. 8 of 9 days down, followed by 6 days thus far. The optimism is pretty high right now I think. I really like the idea of a pop at the open ala June 21 to 1106-1110 range and then............. There are a lot of bears stretching counts to make things 'work' and doubt of not only minor 3 but P3. Also, the DXY could bounce at any time and the EUR/USD is due for another leg down - unless the Euro's problems are no longer a problem.
Max pain for everyone. Mr. Market does not discriminate.
@karen.
ReplyDeleteWell, now, I MUST keep that Avatar.
Andy, post a gold prognostication so we can get in a real fight !!!
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteFOREX
I can't say what's LEADING... But indicatively, ES keeps charging away from (and repairing with)... AUDJPY...
It's kind of bizarro...
karen @ 10:05
ReplyDeleteMy sentiment as well.
(didn't have the chutzpa to say anything).
@Andy
ReplyDeleteTry to fins a "picking tops" avatar... That would be my request...
mine: the trend turned negative but i wouldn't short.. candle-wise.. a mexican stand-off is in play. Hold core position. Probably save to add above 1220. mtg the house at 1175 : )
ReplyDeletespeaking of mexican standoff
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ3ujsh_xC4&feature=PlayList&p=DFCE80A38AB3E567&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1&index=4
bit sure about the captions
little gory, but hey....bear markets.
not sure about the captions....
ReplyDeletere: $gold, meant, "safe" to add..
ReplyDeleteCV, top picking often means not looking at the bottom : )
Ben.. i need to re-watch that movie!!!
ReplyDeleteCV, especially in the instance of this beauty..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1294175/Modern-Family-star-Sofia-Vergara-looks-white-hot-frilly-bikini.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
Take a break... take a test...
ReplyDeleteTEST
AL going to be able to pull this out?
ReplyDeletewhat does the magic 8 ball say?
RE: TEST
ReplyDeleteI got 13, better than the average but only about 50%
I got 18...what side of a woman's blouse are the buttons on?
ReplyDeleteand how did I miss which direction water goes down the drain...
ha ha.. i got 8 and then 18.. i know nothing about tv or radio.. don't do phones either ; ) i DO KNOW about blouses.. merry go rounds they were WRONG about .. Sorry.
ReplyDeletesee you all tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteAnyone still up?
ReplyDeleteI and I know someone is up out there... geeking out over charts and plotting how they are going to got get some money tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteJust that kind of place, really.
I met some cool old time cats in the resi building space tonight... cats who have lost much and suffered immeasurably... but yet have found happiness and peace, faith and family in return.
Most of them still entrepreneurial as ever.
Humbling shit.
@ K
ReplyDeleteSeriously... who IS steering the ship?
Sometimes I think on risk on days its the audusd, sometimes on risk off days its the audjpy... sometimes the eurusd... the 10y...
Its like everyone is taking cues from someone else, but when something comes up to scare the herd we all panic in one direction.
A...O...T
@I-Man -- that's why he who panics first panics best! --Jennifer
ReplyDeleteWell well well. Futures couldn't hold on to the magical overnight pump. It's still up but no where near the high. So where was the disturbance in the force?
ReplyDeleteRa,
ReplyDeleteit's going to be an interesting day indeed, give it a few hours and the high from INTC has worn-off.
CV
ReplyDeleteAs a land owner in WV, you should watch these videos. He starts slow, but brings it all together in the end. If nothing else spend the 25 minutes watching the last part of the 3.
http://nyrad.org/videos.html
This is the video he refers to in the third part-
http://www.api.org/policy/exploration/hydraulicfracturing/hydraulicfracturing.cfm
That video from the API is also good at explaining the well drilling process, and why when BP says they are 600 feet from intercepting the well that they might as well be 2 miles away. They need at least a quarter mile to turn the drill.
NEW THREAD UP
ReplyDeletePlus... (retail sales at 8:30)
Retail sales -0.5%. Consumers staying put. Even though the number of stores has decreased they still couldn't improve the metric.
ReplyDelete