A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
The creditcane took a vacation day but it would like everyone to know that it's still here.
SPXDoji day. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) tested and failed. Well below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1041.24). Trending down on daily 3LB. QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Back below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 85.31).
VIXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held weekly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Still above the SMA(55) and above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).
GOLDBearish long day. Confirmed bullish thrusting. Below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 1240.70).
EURUSDBullish short day. Evening star went supernova. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is on hold again. Tested trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10) and passed (really? I mean c'mon). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2387).
JNKDoji day. Tested the 38.2% retrace (failed). Still below the SMA(233) but above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish short day. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 133.44).
10YR YIELDBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.32). Can you say 2.0%? YES. Is the Fed getting worried yet? HELL YES 10x.
WTIDoji day. Morning star may be fizzling out. Back below the SMA(21), SMA(55), and SMA(233). Midpoint below the EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.94).
LUMBERBearish short day. Closed above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Couldn't stay above weekly 3LB mid (again). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 183.60).
Thanks Nic, from previous thread. It appears to a simp like me that the Baltic Dry Index is back to the recession low. Iron ore to China maybe, but that sure is an impressive chart.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=bdiy&exch=IND&x=15&y=11
thanks for the rap ra
ReplyDeletei'm wondering if hacksaw Jim Duggan is looking at that lumber chart and yelling
2x4
2x4
If some of you have no clue what I'm talking about, you clearly weren't a WWF at any point in time....
BinT
ReplyDeleteThe Baltic Index is ugly ... but it is one to watch. Peaks and troughs usually leads the other commodities by about a month.
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/bdi-peaking-impact-stocks-barrier.asp
ReplyDeleteAmericans will never understand how crap it is to be English
Blogger still not working right, shows "1 comment" on the main page before clicking over.
ReplyDeleteI tried to post earlier about this one-
China AG bank-
They were not oversubscribed, they were only over subscribed on the institutional side, on the other side they were not even half covered.
I saw a story on it over the weekend and can't find it now.
I'm pretty sure that Jesse of Jesse's cafe Americain blog is either completely insane or has the whole Gold cabal/conspiracy thing "nailed."
ReplyDeleteThere is no gray area there....
Well, just as an aside, in my business, we are beginning to see layoffs and positions go unfilled. I operated at a surgery center today, and two of the RN's are leaving for other positions in the surrounding area. The center is not going to replace their positions. And the closest hospital...ditto.
ReplyDeleteI feel so out of sync with the economy and most people. As Ben was quick to pick up, I have lived below my income all of my life, and we are on top of the world here. I'm even sending my DIL through college. But as a very interested observer, I think we are slowly continuing to grind lower. I am still very conservative in my investments, and my partners are becoming more conservative by the day.
Time for steaks and a merlot. Later.
ReplyDelete...love the site, CV...
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-07/01/content_10047615.htm
ReplyDeleteThis one is driving me nuts, I can't find the story anywhere now. The link above has a one line quote on what I am talking about-
"In contrast, individual investors showed muted interest in ABC's Hong Kong IPO on Wednesday when the offering was opened to them. Hong Kong markets were closed on Thursday for a holiday."
Banks buying other banks' equity, RALLY!!!
I'm going to go with insane re: Jesse.
ReplyDeleteA rationalizer if there ever was one.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601057&sid=ao9HKuBA.ybo
ReplyDeleteJuly 6 (Bloomberg) -- Mary Ann Bartels, the Bank of America Corp. analyst who had forecast the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to rise to 1,300 this year, reversed her bullish call and said stocks may extend their biggest decline since the rally began.
Bartels, ranked second among analysts who study price charts in Institutional Investor magazine’s most recent survey, shifted her view after the S&P 500 last week broke the February intraday low of 1,044.50 on increased volume while its 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day average in a so-called “dark cross.”
http://247wallst.com/2010/07/06/analysts-and-companies-may-begin-to-cut-q3-earnings-numbers/
ReplyDeleteAnalysts And Companies May Begin To Cut Q3 Earnings Numbers
"
Second quarter earnings are set, at least for those firms on a calendar year. The period was fairly strong economically, except perhaps for June. That means that some earnings could come in weaker than expected. Companies and securities analysts may also begin slashing their third quarter forecasts."
Mary Ann Bartels, the Bank of America Corp. analyst who had forecast the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to rise to 1,300 this year, reversed her bullish call
ReplyDeletewhy just today I heard we were going to 1500-
if only by unleashing the PPT- to force the markets up- of course!
if the market goes up it means there is a strong economy
not the other way around- duh
LOL
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/
ReplyDeletelPublished in July 7th, 2010
Posted by Steve Keen in Debtwatch
Naked Capitalism and My Scary Minsky Model
"Ultimately, such an extreme level of debt is accumulated that debt servicing exceeds available cash flows, and a permanent slump ensues–a Depression."
Thanks for the blog link Bruce.
ReplyDeleteI read his article at Naked Cap and it is very scary.
Remember the US doesn't have a budget (from ZH): US Ends June With $13.2 Trillion In Debt
ReplyDeleteIn case one is wondering why the House Democrats attached a document to the emergency war supplemental bill that "deemed as passed" a non-existent $1.12 trillion budget, which basically allows the ruling party to start spending money for Fiscal Year 2011 without the constraint of an actual budget, here is the answer: on June 30, the US closed the books with just over $13.2 trillion in total debt, an increase of $210 billion in one month, or $2.5 trillion annualized. There is just $1.1 trillion left on the ceiling. As we have long been warning, at the current run rate, the ceiling will be breached in under six months, or just around November 2. More disconcerting is that the monthly debt roll continues to be in the "ridiculous amount" category, hitting a total of $660 billion, of which $583 billion was rolling off Bills (we are not sure what the $19 billion im "GSE investment" was for, but we are fairly sure the words Ponzi and Perpetuation are part of it). Of course, if America knew that according to the Obama non-existent budget the debt ceiling would be breached in 2010, it may not have a favorable reception among those few who are still willing to vote for either party of the bipartite farce that passes for a government.
I'd think ze germans should win tomorrow....
ReplyDeleteDoug Kass says the market has made the low for the year.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38112449
@BinT
ReplyDeleteRight now, the monthly debt roll is about $660 billion... A ludicrous $583 billion of that is rolling off Bills...
- No 2010 budget
- Within $1.1 trillion of "3rd" debt ceiling increase since Obama has become President (be fun to see if that is breached by the November elections)...
Sounds like it's time for a distraction...
LET'S GO TO WAR!
CV says Doug Kass has made a low for the year...
ReplyDeleteUnless we suddenly get bashed by KRUGMAN-OMICS...
AmenRa,
ReplyDeleteWe're going to have a different sort of "change" after the November election.
thank you all of you for all the links/posts
ReplyDeleteI suppose any person would half a brain would read this thread and conclude that a deflationary collapse doesn't really seem very crazy.
who fucking cares DL-
ReplyDeletethe dude has made a million calls this year-
as if anyone gives a shit at this point-
that's probably just his "hope and prayer" because he's "all in" long
when you are really trying hard to make your argument right now you'd probably end with something like:
ReplyDelete"and the euro was up"
nice on dougie.
ahab,
ReplyDeletePerhaps it would be better if no one posted anything.
... including you.
that whole Kass link is rationalizing...I'm trying my best to completely stop with that kind of nonsense...the market is not telling us the bottom is in, if we only listened.
ReplyDeleteMcFearless,
ReplyDeleteAnd FWIW, that esteemed guru Don Luskin is bullish on the market for the next 5 months.
(I'm sure that'll make you go 200% long tomorrow).
DL-
ReplyDeletedude- post all you want of course-
just giving you my impression-
in my best USN vernacular-
nothing against you personally
at least doug kass didn't say anything about the Fed though, then again the ending is strange for such an upbeat article:
ReplyDelete"This business is going to be fun again and it's going to happen sooner than most people think."
I thought this was "short-seller" dougie kass??
Don Luskin still gives advice?
ReplyDeleteAhab,
ReplyDeleteNot every post on this site is going to be life-transforming.
Just throwing out bits of information here and there.
McF @ 10:12
ReplyDeleteHe was on CNBC today.
And he has a website
(http://www.trendmacro.com/default2.asp)
Say what you will about is S&P500 calls. But his bullishness on gold over the last few years has been vindicated.
those canadian housing numbers aren't looking so hot.
ReplyDeleteIs it different this time?
DL,
ReplyDeleteno doubt, can't knock him about being bullish gold.
DL-
ReplyDeleteunderstood-
but Kass has made so many unconfirmed predictions at this point that it unnerves me that he even ventures to make another-
but maybe it's predictions by numbers-
something's eventually got to play out right-
I am starting to come to CV's idea on this- it is the hope that the current administration will pull out a win on the economy because of happy talk-
when in reality it's as bad as it ever was if not worse
http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/disclosures/annual-records/2010
ReplyDelete>> it may not have a favorable reception among those few who are still willing to vote for either party of the bipartite farce that passes for a government.
ReplyDeleteSorry, I voted for Kang. I feel so stupid.
Next time, I'll vote for Kodos.
Seriously though, I do feel stupid.
ReplyDeleteMy wife and I submitted absentee ballots. I was waffling over whether to write in Ron Paul or vote for Obama. I...I...suck.
McF @ 10:22
ReplyDeleteI like how they put this in there:
“Consistent with President Obama's COMMITMENT TO TRANSPARENCY, this report is being publicly disclosed on our website…”
That makes me feel SOOOO much better.
DL
ReplyDeleteThey should send Ben's link to fraud@whitehouse.gov
How about this scenario: the economy turns south rapidly before the election. Almost like a re-run of 2008. And this time, every incumbent representing the "Banker Party" (tm - Ratigan) gets booted. (I can dream. Can't I?)
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteOkay, folks. Between Mish's post on Canada RRE, Rogoff's remarks about China's RRE, and a bunch more recent data, what would be appropriate shorts?
ReplyDeleteI guess base metals should drop. (The timing of Nic's BDI article would work here. Right?) Mining comany stocks should drop. But, what about currency effects? And what about potential "TBTF" in those countries?
Let's say you short an Australian miner. If Australian-denominated debts go bad, then won't the Australian dollar strengthen? Maybe pair the miner-short with an AUD-long?
My first par above was poorly written. Basically, I suspect China, Canada, and soon Aus/NZ and Latin America have already witnessed Peak Credit.
ReplyDeleteEnough of Krugman. It's obvious all he's doing is milking his 15 minutes of fame. For the record he won a laureate in economic sciences (oxymoron) from Nobel.
ReplyDelete"It's so fluffy!!!"
wunsacon
ReplyDeleteIf a list gets distributed before the election of all politicians who have accepted money from banks and healthcare could cause some havoc.
AmenRa @ 11:18
ReplyDeleteCampaign contributions to Democrats have dropped 65% in the last two years. (Mostly the investment banks)
article
DL
ReplyDeleteI don't see why they aren't contributing because they received everything their lobbyists were sent in to get. Maybe its because Dems "want" to do something that has them irked.
AmenRa,
ReplyDeleteFirst, I don't think that Blankfein enjoyed being "called on the carpet". Second, the W.S. bankers are no fans of Obama.
But it may also be a bet (on their part) that the Republicans are going to take control of the House after the midterm election.
DL
ReplyDeleteThe bankers don't want anyone to change the rules of the sandbox. It's a power play but Obama has DHS, FBI, CIA, IRS, SS, DoJ on his team.
Futures have failed to reverse so far. Ms Cleo sees a test of SPX 1000 with a close around 995 for tomorrow.
ReplyDelete"It's so fluffy!!!"
Mish today posted this morning on Hussman. I have made him an honorary "Hussy"...as am I!
ReplyDeleteNEW THREAD UP
ReplyDeleteFrom the Mish post, and Bruce linked this yesterday:
ReplyDeleteInterestingly, some observers lament that corporations and some individuals are holding their assets in "cash" rather than spending and investing those balances, apparently believing that this money is being "held back" from the economy.
This is not money that is waiting to be spent. It is a stack of IOUs representing resources that have already been squandered, and now somebody has to hold these pieces of paper until they are retired.
REPLY: Uh, thank you, we've been saying this for over 12 months. There is no new "money", there is new credit, which replaced old credit.