"Let the CRAZY IVAN's begin"... (Hey - It's damn near 4th of July weekend - right?)...
The baffles is the area in the water directly behind a submarine or ship through which a hull-mounted sonar cannot hear. This blind spot is caused by the need to insulate a sonar, commonly mounted near the bow, from the noise of the vessel's machinery.
Following a vessel by hiding in its baffles was a common submarine surveillance technique during the Cold War, which led to the tactics of "clearing the baffles".
Variants of this technique include the "Crazy Ivan", a baffle-clearing manoeuvre intended to bring the followed submarine onto an attack heading and typically used by the Soviet Navy...
Seaman Jones: Conn, sonar! Crazy Ivan!
Capt. Bart Mancuso: All stop! Quick quiet!
[the ships engines are shut down completely]
Beaumont: What's goin' on?
Seaman Jones: Russian captains sometime turn suddenly to see if anyone's behind them. We call it "Crazy Ivan." The only thing you can do is go dead. Shut everything down and make like a hole in the water.
Beaumont: So what's the catch?
Seaman Jones: The catch is, a boat this big doesn't exactly stop on a dime... and if we're too close, we'll drift right into the back of him.
interesting read:
ReplyDeletehttp://mises.org/daily/3136
How annoying is that, starting a new thread TOO early.. i idid like Hunt for Red October, tho "Blind Man's Bluff" was the 'right stuff' for me.
ReplyDeleteSorry karen...
ReplyDeleteI'm just SUPER tired...
And if something BLOWS UP tonight, I'm not sure if I'd have time to get it "editorialized" & published by 8AM or so (New York time), where a lot of readers would be ready to pour in and add comments to the DAY's news (not last evenings)...
So... an EXECUTIVE decision...
- Get it started
- Add as needed
Sincerely,
ReplyDeleteCharles Foster Kane
Seagulls must fly over the sea
ReplyDeleteIf they flew over the bay
They'd be called bagels.
Way too early (had to get a Tums)
...Probably time for a relief rally soon...they do happen...
Congress can't quit spending...I see.
Condition of AIG rescue blocks lawsuits against trading partners
ReplyDeleteWhen the U.S. government bailed out American International Group, it required the firm to give up the right to sue Goldman Sachs and other major banks that were its trading partners. Until recently, the rule, which takes away AIG's right to pursue claims for possible fraud involving mortgage securities, was unknown outside a few Wall Street legal departments, according to The New York Times.
Dip buyers in China:
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoG2qkHmFUxo&pos=3
wow, this discussion on CNBC right now is really something....this is worth viewing for everyone.
ReplyDeleteSteve Liesman: "That's the part I don't understand, can't the Fed just make inflation reality since you control it"
ReplyDeletethe Fed's Evans cannot answer the question.
Steve Liesman: "Well, is it a political problem"
Fed's Evans: "no"
wow.....
ADP expected 60k came in at 13k. Whoosh.
ReplyDeleteWTF!?
ReplyDeletemy morning rounds to the blogs and there is discussion about double dip everywhere...
who gives a shit if we double dip or not, really....
people were in heavy debate well into the spring of 2008 about whether or not we were in a recession, and NBER as far as I know, still hasn't called the end of that recession, all this double dip talk is a complete waste of time for anyone trying to make money in the markets.
Now if you want to be an economist well then I understand the discussion on double dip, but really, most of these people discussing it aren't Phd's, so it's an overall waste of time, and further, I'm a little doubtful that coming into 2010 that interest in people becoming economists was on the rise.
Probably top five most ridiculed profession in the last few years yet it's the profession the net of market participants currently want to be in imo.
ADP June 2010 Report
ReplyDeleteNonfarm private employment increased 13,000 from May to June 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from April to May 2010 was revised up slightly, from the previously reported increase of 55,000 to an increase of 57,000.
June’s rise in private employment was the fifth consecutive monthly gain. However, over these five months the increases have averaged a modest 34,000 (avg was 39000 last month). Recent ADP Report data suggest that, following steady improvement through April, private employment may have decelerated heading into the summer. The slow pace of improvement from February through June is consistent with other publicly available data, including a pause in the decline of initial unemployment claims that occurred during the winter months.
Ben
ReplyDeleteI don't want to be an economist but I have read books on economic indicators and the theories of Mises and Keynes. I also stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.
Ra,
ReplyDeletelol
and interestingly enough both camps predict inflation right now
completely different approach with the exact same conclusions because they use data that won't allow them to forecast but to predict the past.
I read mises site almost every day, majority are inflationist gold bugs.
@McF
ReplyDeleteWith regards to "recession", or double dip...
Look - It's a completely misunderstood thing to begin with...
From yesterday (posted this)...
"Obama returned June 27 from a summit of the Group of 20 nations, where leaders agreed on a target for advanced economies to at least halve deficits by 2013 and stabilize their debt-to- output ratios by 2016.
Concerns about the global recovery have added to stress in the credit markets. Company debt offerings declined 3.8 percent last week to $38.6 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. Treasuries are having their best year since 1995, returning 5 percent through June 24, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data, as investors seek alternatives to Europe, where Greece and Spain had their credit ratings downgraded.
Economy ‘Strengthening’
While there remains work to do to on the economy, Obama said he and Bernanke share “the view that the economy is strengthening, that we are into recovery.”
Obama said that in the U.S. there is “great concern about the 8 million jobs that were lost” since the recession began in December 2007.
Even there, Obama conveniently left out the idea that we ever LEFT the recession in the first place...
So did we, or didn't we?
It seems like last year, they were trying as hard as they could to take credit that the recession was over... Now, if we start to "double dip" they can MOONWALK a little and say things like IT'S PROBLEMATIC, IT TAKES MORE TIME, IT'LL TAKE MORE MONEY, YOU NEED A PHD, IT'S ALL EUROPE'S FAULT, IRAN IS GETTING IN THE WAY...
By November, it'll be "Republicans are blocking the agenda"...
DOUBLE DIP?
Someone who'd worked at a DAIRY QUEEN ought to know what one of those was, but OOPS, you never worked in one of those, did you?
Anyway... CV tends to think MOST PEOPLE think of a recession as the stock market going down, and unemployment a little higher...
ReplyDeleteThat's what it is to MOST PEOPLE... Screw all the Steve Liesman analysis...
Daily Treasury statement...
ReplyDeleteWithheld employment and employment taxes...
Fiscal year to date...
June 28, 2010 - $1,253,227M -2.46%
June 29, 2009 - $1,284,864M -5.34%
June 27, 2008 - $1,357,287M +3.94
June 28, 2007 - $1,305,795M
not much growth here last couple of years...
@Amen
ReplyDeleteNow this will be interesting if there is a little chart gap down on the open at 1040...
Hansel & Gretel have to drop their breadcrumbs you know...
09-10 drop much smaller than 08-09
ReplyDeletegreen shoots
I also slept at a Holiday Inn last night.
it seems like last year, they were trying as hard as they could to take credit that the recession was over
ReplyDeletewhat? no "mission accomplished" banner- or am I mixing up my administrations?
As much as they deride ADP it is an accurate representation of small business. Plus the direction ADP moves is usually the way NFP moves. Which means BO, BB, and TG are already on the phone to get NFP massaged.
ReplyDeletegood morning! my head feels like i drank too much last night.. maybe it's just a lack of coffe--or some complicated emails i wanted to address quickly that propelled me from cozy bed with iphone to wrapped in blanket sitting at laptop!
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDelete"green shoots" - LOL
When the DOW goes to 400, they'll be saying "Oh look! the DOW only lost 40 points today" (a 10% drop)...
That's better than those crazy days when it was losing 300 points a day!
wow- b22- Liesman- what an eff'ing buffoon-
ReplyDeleteprays at the alter of the Fed obviously
@karen
ReplyDeleteIf I were you, I'd ignore those kinds of e-mails at all cost and stick to the cozy bed...
But that's just me... :-)
@ahab
ReplyDelete"what? no "mission accomplished" banner- or am I mixing up my administrations?"
Well, the CURRENT guys, at least, didn't something idiotic & sophomoric like flying a jet onto an aircraft carrier... But I do remember pulling out headlines on these blog sites about Geithner/Summers/Bernanke & the rest beating their chests back in December and basically saying the problem was licked...
@Amen
ReplyDelete"Which means BO, BB, and TG are already on the phone to get NFP massaged."
I wonder if they're using the SHOE PHONE or the CONE OF SILENCE...
CV-
ReplyDeletedude- all's they need do is order all cities to drape a "mission accomplished- recession over" banner across "main street"-
and the nation will breath a sigh of relief-
or we could call it VR day- victory over recession- or better yet-
VD day- lol
-McFearthis
ReplyDeleteEvans looked like a giant d-bag this morning. Sad to wake up and see a giant helmet like that.
And why do I keep trying to short silver as opposed to anyother benchmark???
@ MCF
ReplyDeletemore "green shoots"
minimum wage increase
@ahab
ReplyDelete"VD Day" - LOL
(The ultimate in realizing that you were truly F***ED)...
@CV, "Counter Intuitveness". Brilliant.
ReplyDeleteI call that critical thinking.
@Mack
ReplyDeleteCV is now a cheerleader for silver...
I just found this big stash of old silver coins in the basement...
back with my coffee after a battle with my press! how scary.. not sure what that portends for the day.
ReplyDeleteif anyone wants an abandoned baby, look at monday's JNK candle.
ReplyDeleteBR-
ReplyDeletealways redeeming himself- this is a very funny post dressing down Kartik Athreya-
Economics is Easy; Comedy is Hard
CV
ReplyDelete-just my luck! i'm selling immediately!
Is GLD too big?
ReplyDeleteI see they're holding up the market until Chicago PMI is released. So f'in obvious.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't agree w/ this more-
ReplyDeleteUS Must Cut Public Sector or Fall Like Rome: Zell
"The old game was very simple. If you worked for the government, you had job security, you got less but you got a longer pension," he said. But over the past 10 years, a job in public sector is paying significantly more and the benefits "are literally bankrupting the states."
exactly
you all want some insight into the retail mind, well you are getting it anyway if not:
ReplyDeleteMet with these clients on 4/22/10, at that time I removed every last bit of stock in their accounts 100%, added shorts, though not a lot, and rounded out the account with purchases of TLT, BND, and held a bunch of cash, and spent over an hour going through the reasons why, sentiment, etc.
obviously that worked out pretty good for us, and then, like clockwork, I get this e-mail from the client this morning:
"Heard lots on the news that things will be dropping again. Is this the drop you were predicting or do you think it is an interim phase?"
Will be dropping again?
come again?
but hey, the experts on the news said.....
and btw, same client sent me this email two days prior to the 4/22/10 mtg:
"I'd like to discuss strategies that help us take advantage of the upswing in the market"
so there you have it
Chicago Manufacturing Index Lower at 59.1, but Meeting Expectations
ReplyDeleteand there we have it- far be it to increase in this robust recovery we've been having
"And why do I keep trying to short silver as opposed to anyother benchmark???"
ReplyDeleteMack, I hear you man, I'm off that trade at this point, plenty of other places to get involved, way too hard in there right now.
b22-
ReplyDeletedo you ever want to grab your customer's and shake them and say- WTF is wrong w/ you?
at the height of the housing bubble- customer's use to ask me all the time- "when should I sell my home?"-
and I would say- "right now!"
and then- they would invariably say- "I think I will wait- my realtor said it should be worth more in a few months"
LOL
ahab,
ReplyDeletemost of the time it doesn't bother me, when I got that email this morning, yes I did feel that way, I dropped a few f-bombs. it's not often at all you are able to time things that perfectly, so it's beyond annoying when in those few instances there is still that crap coming back to you.
but hey, I picked the job.
Dont know what to do here in the tape...
ReplyDeleteWill just sit and nurse my bruised rib...
You know you're getting old when you bruise a rib on a waterslide.
I was going pretty fast, and it was a pretty big waterslide.
Ben,
ReplyDeleteALl this talk of double dip is priceless. I've made a couple of comments on it the last couple of days about the 'double dip' talk. However, it is much earlier than I ever could have imagined. Essentially what we have is people getting massaged for this possibility while still being told to hold out for 'hope' as you/we buy the dips.
I'm thinking intermediate 1 ends around 700 to a chorus of "Phew!" and a rocket to 1200 in yet another orgy of recovery nonsense.
@McF
ReplyDeleteMaybe you could put them in long (with leverage), CGI Group Inc. (Stock Ticker GIB)...
LOL
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteDamn... I thought you were going to say your Everlast punching bag hit back at you and cracked your ribs...
@ahab 10:00
ReplyDeleteI'm in the process of unloading my rental properties. Everyone is asking me, "why?" I have tried to explain it but people a) don't believe it, or b) don't want to hear it.
Most likely a combination of both. They have been conditioned for the last 20 years to think inflation and assets rise in value. tsk tsk tsk. A lot of smart people who don't have a clue.
@mcHappy
ReplyDeletemcHappy still likes that chart gap at 1200...
Can't get it off your mind, can you mcH? :-)
from CNBC-
ReplyDeleteAmerican homeowners, it turns out, have a very sweet deal to buy their home sweet homes, with the government being their candy man. For instance, America is nearly alone in not charging a fee for paying off mortgages early. And it’s one of the most liberal countries in allowing interest to be tax-deductible.
skewed heavily towards home ownership obviously-
the mortgage interest deduction being one "gimme" that needs to be phased out like they did credit card interest deductions-
pre-payment penalties are actually pretty common for bank held loans- but when the market is 95% GSE/agency money- well . . .maybe there is the problem
@Amen
ReplyDeleteIs it too early to break out the champagne bottles on 1089?
mchappy-
ReplyDeletesmart move- better to sell in a "seller's" market-
and all this talk of double dip- seems rather tame- i'd rather think of it as "double crash"
I can't CV.
ReplyDeleteBUt that doesn't get filled until next year. Intermediate 1 will scare the sh*t out of people and will once again sell at the wrong time. Intermediate 2 will get them to buy in at the wrong time and get people talking about new highs. Intermediate 3 is going to take us to depths not imagined except by many here.
Just my thoughts.
McHappy,
ReplyDeletemaybe I'm misreading you but I'm not sure it's logical to expect a move to 700 to end intermediate wave 1 and then a wave 2 retrace that takes back almost all of intermediate 1. I'm willing to accept that wave 2's can retrace a lot of wave 1, but our closing high was 1212.
I'd be willing to accept 1104 as a 78.6 retrace of that outcome, and even that is a stretch if this is the start of a Primary Wave 3, the downside character of these waves should be so powerful that the countertrend waves can't fight against it that strongly, look how insane internals have already been, we are matching days that occured in September 2008, in the real heart of Primary Wave 1, and the market isn't even down 20% from the peak in April.
CV,
ReplyDeleteGaps above are on my mind as well:
1) 1054 gap was not totally filled yesterday.
2) 1060 gap
3) 1075/1071 gap is really glaring to me.
I've been screwed on so many wave 2's of late, I am actually going to practice patience - eventhough every bone in me is screaming "SHORT GODDAMMIT SHORT!"
CV
ReplyDeleteI'm already tipsy...
i was quite tipsy last night !
ReplyDelete@Ben
ReplyDeleteI hope it works out that way. I guess I'm just jaded of late - even with the sweetest little thing asleep next to me.
McHappy,
ReplyDeleteI hear you man, waves can do that to you, look what happened to me in January, I avoided all the other three wave moves without going crazy short in Primary 2 but that one got me good, it was time for me to be humbled.
Just got long at 1038.5... feeling some squeeze-age...
ReplyDelete"tipsy"
ReplyDeleteWhat a great word...
Always kind of reminds me of Holly Golightly...
Ben,
ReplyDeleteWould this be fair to ASS-ume:
in P3 there will be huge selling pressure, however, EW principles cannot be thrown out the window. Because of this, expect volatility with retracements being fast, violent, and covering minimal requirements.
@McF/McH
ReplyDeleteLike CV said... "It's CRAZY IVAN time"...
man-
ReplyDeletejust stepped outside- awesome weather-
CV can relate- last week or two have been brutal hot and humid-
almost feels cold outside- 70 chilly degrees
yeah McHappy, I do think that's fair I'm not an expert on what P3 should be like, I basically just read what EWI says about it because nobody really knows, but considering the things we have seen already since the top this April I'd think that's a fair description.
ReplyDeleteI would guess that the squiggles will be nearly impossible to count at times, but if there is a P3 that big structure will ultimately map out five waves, and then we'll have to deal with the absolute nightmare that is going to be primary wave 4. That'll be way harder than Primary 2 if this all plays out imo,... in every possible way. the best we'll be able to do is assign the most probable pattern to wave 4 since we now know 2 was a triple ZZ....from there though, that's going to test everyone's skills in a special kind of way.
and finally- some good news-
ReplyDelete"Loss of Jobless Benefits Could Lower US Unemployment Rate" - CNBC
"Economists say the Senate's rejection of another extension of jobless benefits could actually cause more people to quit looking for work, which could push down the US unemployment rate"
you see? things are looking better every day
CV has pretty much settled on the idea of the 992 area as being the first real wave ending...
ReplyDelete- It's near the Louise Yamada line (89Wma)
- There are wedge diagonals to support that
It's neither TOO HOT or TOO COLD
Frankly, I think TPTB still think they have control of this market...
So, we could hit that level, and sustain a fairly long duration rally that takes us through the summer period (at that point - perhaps - retracing some of the levels that mcHappy has)...
Think about it... the DARK CROSS will come in around the 1112 - 1122 level...
So we could jaunt down and put a floor in at 992, then do a Feb-Apr, irritating type move back up to the KT zone again...
Just killing time here with my CRAZY IVANS...
ahab.. that is the craziest, most convoluted blurb yet.. understandable that it came from "economists."
ReplyDelete@ahab
ReplyDeleteOh those wacky economists...
those economists that said that are not PhD's though right?
ReplyDeleteLet economists study their own little "pretend world" that doesn't exist but they should leave the "real world" stuff alone. Far "too complicated" for them to understand without the necessary degrees or "credentials". ;-)
ReplyDeleteOff to Twinks-Tigers game. Gorgeous day here. Hanging onto my small holdings in SDS and QID for now. Have fun all.
......And of course my TLT. Back later.
ReplyDeleteahab,
ReplyDeletere: outside,
what an awesome day it is here, nice break from the disgusting heat we've had, I'm taking tomorrow day time off and playing some golf, will work at night instead.
b22-
ReplyDeleteno doubt-
you kind of get use to the heat- then bam- a 70 degree day w/ low humidity-
so it feels cold-
and regarding the night shift- that's what I usually do every day!
The longer this goes on and looking at the charts, I am doubting - now really doubting, not just doubting - that minute 1 is over. Nothing implusive going on. A push in to the 1050's would have me sharting, er, I mean shorting this market.
ReplyDeleteAre they playing the 1044 game again?
ReplyDeleteFORECASTS
ReplyDeleteS&P
Unemployment
Housing Starts
Gold
is spx/spy putting in a base? a move over 1045 would not be happiness for me..
ReplyDeletePouring over your stock sharts again mcHappy? :-)
ReplyDeleteWhy do you think economists come up with such crap all the time?
Answer: Because they're looking at sharts all day long...
@karen
ReplyDeleteSo far this all just looks like a sideways consolidation (not a base)...
It's the last day of the quarter...
Momo's are limping home carrying their comrades on their shields...
Think Napoleon...
what in the heck is that forecast web-site?
ReplyDeletetopstep should be interesting today
ReplyDeleteTypical band-aid action...
ReplyDeleteStart HFT'ing the hell out of F & C, and bid up a few crappy retail stocks...
i forgot it was the last day of the month.. thank you.
ReplyDeletefrom topstep twitter: We still have 980 as our first real down side objective.
ReplyDeleteFORECASTS???
ReplyDeleteIs that like where BIFF gets the Sports Almanac in "Back To the Future"?
@karen
ReplyDelete980 works for CV...
Isn't America great?
ReplyDeleteWant a mansion? Just take one
'Luxury squatters' take over vacant houses and declare themselves owners. In Seattle, one family moved into a $3.3 million place.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/article.aspx?post=1776245>1=33006
800 handle before end of year
ReplyDeletelittle bird told me
CV
ReplyDeleteHow long do they have to squat before they can lay claim to said property?
i just made extra kale smoothie if anyone wants some...
ReplyDeletethere goes 1045 : (
maybe the answer to that is in here somewhere Ra:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.squatspace.com/handbook/index.php
Happy to book gains on this long at 1044...
ReplyDelete(But I think that after a pullback there, we're off to 1050.
way OT-
ReplyDeletebut I find this whole spy thing intriguing- especially Anna Chapman-
The SoHo Spy: Stunning Anna Chapman Accused in Russian Spy Ring
not too shabby- not sure I even understand what secrets they were sending-
if any- the USG is becoming a tad bit scary if you ask me-
took my 16 year old son to the US District Court for "unlawful bathing" @ Great Falls NP-
max sentence 6 months in jail- wow- my son got a one year continuance-
as long as he keeps his nose clean for one year- then charges are dismissed-
complete bullshit if you ask me- what? they own the damn river?
unlawful bathing?
ReplyDeletew
t
f
@ karen -
ReplyDelete'what in the heck is that forecast web-site?'
"The Financial Forecast Center has been producing and publishing economic and financial market forecasts since 1997"
one would think, if this 'forecasting ai' was any good at all, that the website would prominently feature how well its forecasts have performed against outcomes. but then, we don't see that much of anywhere, do we, even at tbp?
Unlawful bathing huh? Did he forget to wash behind the ears? Or just forget to rinse properly?
ReplyDeletePenalty sounds about right... throw him in the clink.
ewi marked top resistance last night at 1059, they felt yesterday was significant enough to issue a special short term update, they were saying last night we were deeply oversold at the close so any day now should see a bounce, but they are hardcore about us being in the early stages of wave 3 of 1.
ReplyDeleteoh my! what i've done in public this year! unlawful bathing? was he sans shorts or was swimming prohibited..
ReplyDeleteArrgghh. The algos start buy programs every time NYSE TICK drops below zero.
ReplyDeleteyeah, ahab's kid should go to jail for six months and bunk with the kid in there for six for smoking a joint.
ReplyDeletemeanwhile we've got wachovia laundering drug money, and how fitting, because I'm threatened with job loss every year if I don't complete my anti money-laundering training.
unlawful bathing...
ReplyDeleteTy Webb: Let me tell you a little story? I once knew a guy who could have been a great golfer, could have gone pro, all he needed was a little time and practice. Decided to go to college instead. Went for four years, did pretty well. At the end of his four years, his last semester he was kicked out ... You know what for? He was night putting, just putting at night with the 15-year-old daughter of the Dean ... You know who that guy was Danny?
Danny Noonan: No.
Ty Webb: Take one good guess.
Danny Noonan: Bob Hope?
Ty Webb: Ha ha ... No, that guy was Mitch Comstein, my roommate. He was a good guy.
Long Ty Webb.
ReplyDeleteStop set just below Danny Noonan.
ReplyDelete(Cuz the world needs ditch diggers too...)
ReplyDelete:)
nice article:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/06/29/Know-More-and-Say-Less.aspx
from the link:
"Letting one's emotions get in the way of an investment is an investor's most common mistake. The easiest way to let your emotions get the best of you is to listen uncritically to what other people say, and to follow where they go."
Judge Smails: You know, you should play with Dr. Beeper and myself. I mean, he's been club champion for three years running and I'm no slouch myself.
ReplyDeleteTy Webb: Don't sell yourself short Judge, you're a tremendous slouch.
some market internals from http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
ReplyDeletebuying some spxu again. buy more @spx 1060.
ReplyDeleteDP
zerohedge
ReplyDeleteNew post: Goldman Technician Says To Short Market Unless S&P 1083 Is Recovered Today http://tinyurl.com/38az2fk
Ignorance.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDelete"listen uncritically to what other people say, and to follow where they go."
Conversely - that sounds like the key to marital bliss...
@karen
ReplyDeleteHe must not be a 3lb guy (or else he would have said 1089)...
GS must be long.
ReplyDeletekaren-
ReplyDeletetechnically- it's illegal to get in the water @ Great Falls NP-
however- it's not even posted where the kids go- they all jump the cliffs into the river-
my older son has been doing it for year w/ nary a problem-
but why not just tell the kids to get out of the water and go home?
a ticket? to go to a US District Court? max sentence 6 months?
when they said the max sentence in the court room I laughed
Reclaimed the uptrend off of yesterdays 1030.25 low...
ReplyDeleteBacktesting it for support now @ 1042.
Important line for today's trading, imo.
ahab, well that is patently absurd! and practically entrapment if it is not posted..
ReplyDeletehere you go mcHappy- this is for you-
ReplyDeleteWhy Canada's Housing Market Didn't Crash
. . .the banking system in Canada does not allow for the type of irresponsible buying and borrowing that we saw in the U.S. at the height of the recent housing boom (2004-2006)
all is well I guess- as long as home prices don't start falling
lol, yeah saw it ahab. It is the "Ignorance." link above.
ReplyDeleteInstead of 'those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it' we have, 'those who ignore their neighbours are destined to suffer the same fate'
@ahab
ReplyDeleteWell I'd still say Obama's system is better (where irresponsible buying & borrowing is allowed)...
And it it all detonates, it's just not allowed to FAIL...
Everyone goes home happier! Right?
looks like the eurusd/spx risk corellation is back...
ReplyDeletebeen watching audusd for risk on, audjpy for risk off days.
but eurusd is beginning to track spx well again.
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteWhy don't I ever hear you tracking EuR-JPY?
uh oh. hit 1048.08 but did not clear 1048.31. We either head up in to 1050's after a little down or we are about to go down haaaard.
ReplyDeleteNo particular reason really...
ReplyDeleteJust started watching eurusd, then audusd, then audjpy... occasionally cable, occasionally eurchf if I want to gage eur weakness... maybe some usdjpy if I'm trying to gage yen strength.
I never think to look at eurjpy... what would be the advantage of watching that one over say a audjpy, or eurusd?
I'm with DP/Anon here and did a little short, after last week I adjusted all my entry levels, we aren't going to 1170 which was where I had previously thought I might be able to add the last cash.
ReplyDeletetesla motors up big again today.
ReplyDeleteanybody have any thoughts on that?
You know, we inherited this mess. Krugman may have thrown in the towel, but not us...
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDeleteI was just noticing that on the real sharp moves lately, the Eur-JPY was highly correlative...
So what I'm saying is... On some days (when the markets are consolidating) it's tough to find correlations, and/or they are skewed...
But in moments when the market is determined to get someplace in a hurry, then that correlation has been lockstep...
Nobody thinks to look though (in the midst of the chaos)... And in fact, they don't need to...
we were big oversold yesterday and got bad news this morning, which according to the exogenous cause model, at this point should have rallied stocks a lot more today since that used to equal more QE or some other such nonsense.
ReplyDeletethis thing is weak.
@McF
ReplyDelete"anybody have any thoughts on that?"
yeah... people are "tools"
Thx, CV...
ReplyDeleteBoth eurjpy and eurusd say buy this dip, as far as I'm concerned.
I'm speaking of today... ie, next couple hours
ReplyDeleteJust think there are too many shorts drooling over the chance to sell ES at 1044.50/1045 for it to not be gunned.
ReplyDeleteYesterday was the wild, wild, west... not seeing that kind of fury today. Makes me think sellers have run out of steam for now, and time for a pendulum swing.
ReplyDeleteI hope you are right about that I, closer to 1060 I think we be a real gift.
ReplyDeleteI'm honing in on 1052-50 on ES for my next shorting area.
ReplyDeleteb22-
ReplyDeleteI made a comment yesterday about Tesla- saying I wished I was in on the IPO \snark\
Which kinda lines up with tomorrows open... if tomorrow is risk on tho, then 1073 might come back into play.
ReplyDeletefilling in for Nic.. Today's Topstep!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KL1pvrzr1VM
@McF
ReplyDeleteAbandoning all WAVES that have been drawn, if you look at it from a strict FIBO perspective... From 1220...
-.09 was the 1110 level... We numerous dances around that level (including the fact that it was the WEEKLY close after the FLASH CRASH - next day)...
- The next MF down was yesterdays close (right at 1141)...
So if you wanted to say that a "minute 3" wave got started off of last Thu/Fri/Mon 1083 area... I still think you have to try to use the 1110 level as a basis for any strength (if we get any at all here)...
So the FIBS between 1141 and 1110 are basically:
1056, 1067, 1075, 1084, 1094...
We can most likely eliminate the last three of those numbers...
you guys are smoking crack! today's high is in..
ReplyDeleteIce my rib, karen.
ReplyDeleteso yes, i disagree with Danny.. expect the unexpected cuz it is different this time : )
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteDear, can you parse what Mr. Topstep is saying?
For some reason, the sound on my computer is not working at the moment...
I-Man.. bet you had fun! what is the name of the waterpark and slide? maybe I can see it..
ReplyDeleteCV-
ReplyDeleteI'm not Karen- however-
answer on Topstep- market will quietly go higher until Friday
Massive rally coming.
ReplyDeleteGo long...5:1 leverage
Its at our pool... (and too big if you ask me... curves are too sharp, and the mats they want you to use make you go real fast...)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.lakeshoreac.com/index.html
ReplyDelete- sideways to higher day today..
ReplyDelete- "market can't go down to far in front of friday's unemployment number cuz if they do they will discount the number and the markets will rally"
- as far as rest of day, bond market down and putting some bid in spx
- tomorrow is first day of new quarter.. statistically a strong day.
@ahab
ReplyDeleteThanks...
I'm not against that notion... I was saying the other day... First two days of the month, INFLOWS...
If Lloyd & Jamie are going to be "distributing" to "JOE 401K", they want to do it at these levels before they pull the rug out from under him...
Poor JOE 401K doesn't own any PUT contracts in his Legg Mason account...
Thanks karen...
ReplyDeleteAnd, of course, neither MR TOPSTEP nor any of the Money Managers who come on CNBS will explain it to you the way CV just did...
Bad for business...
This ain't a "racket" is it? What's a "racket"?
Now, how about dem Job numbers?
ahab,
ReplyDeleteI don't know much about the company, but a simple question, when are they going to make any money? My understanding is that since inception they've lost about 260 million....and last I checked, the public wasn't sold on their big idea just yet.
but what do I know, that IPO was supposed to come out at $14-$16, it's basically double that, and all over the unproven Model S which carries a base price of 49.9k, which I don't think is very cheap.
I look at hundreds of household budgets every year, I see what people spend on gas, your break-even on this vs. a traditional (gas) cheaper car, or a traditional used car isn't any time soon, and if heaven forbig gas prices go down again, then what? but hey, you can get a tax credit if you buy, and remember how awesome that worked for people with SUV's back in the day. You could also just buy a Nissan LEAF for 32k, the difference in interest over the life of the two loans likely covers your gas bill for a year-year and half.
according to them they are just focused on looking out to 2012, when people will be happy to drop 50k on a car.
I see people asking if its the next Model T, so I'm sure it will all work out swell.
that dinky little slide? maybe you should visit wild rivers when you come to orange county.. then again, maybe not! laughing.
ReplyDeleteCV-
ReplyDeleteper Mr. Topstep- 17 out of last 21 starts to the 3rd qtr were up days-
he did say something that I found interesting- if today and tomorrow end up being down days-
then whatever number is coming out on Friday is automatically discounted and the market will go higher-
some sense in that I guess
yeah, yeah, yeah...
ReplyDeleteI was caught off guard by the speed and didnt have my arms crossed like I should have.
You sound like my wife... (who was afraid to go down the slide of course.)
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteElectric cars are an idiotic concept...
Nikola Tesla himself is probably turning over in his grave at the thought of it...
@karen
ReplyDelete"wild rivers"?... I-Man, karen is trying to get you arrested (like ahab's kid)...
ben, you hit the nail on the head with "when are they going to make money?" I looked into it and just shook my head. there is a sucker born every minute, tho, right?
ReplyDeleteTesla is the smoking hot new black jack dealer at the casino. The novelty will wear off soon when the next girl gets hired.
ReplyDelete"There is a sucker born every minute,"
ReplyDeleteThats what the IB's who worked that deal are saying right now!
wow-
ReplyDeletemy last post- guess I just repeated what Karen already posted-
b22- car is too expensive and inconvenient- plain and simple-
your break even thoughts are on the money- that is what is going to be going through most folks minds-
CV had a good point about charging the batteries- is there capacity to allow for massive electricity use w/o causing brown outs/black outs
CV, silly! http://www.wildrivers.com/
ReplyDeleteRandom trading psychology tip:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2d5o8d1kitM
Wait... I shouldn't say IDIOTIC CONCEPT...
ReplyDeleteFor local fleet use, there may be some value, or, the idea of low horsepower options (like on scooters or something) may have various merits...
The main problem is trying to fit the concept into normal AMERICAN driving habits...
People... The problem aren't "cars", the problem are PEOPLE, LOGISTICS, and the HABITS thereof...
Mass electrical cars aren't going to solve any inherent problems...
I keep looking at the ticker and this is what I keep thinking off: Can you take me higher?
ReplyDeleteJamie with $VIX Sonar Report:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRPC8RcvFpM
@I-Man
ReplyDelete"There is a sucker born every minute,"
"Thats what the IB's who worked that deal are saying right now!"
It was the SQUID... Go figure!
I think that everyone should drive an electric car.
ReplyDelete@mcF
ReplyDelete"CV had a good point about charging the batteries- is there capacity to allow for massive electricity use w/o causing brown outs/black outs"
Answer: NO...
Also - Consider the fact that based on the way electricity gets distributed in this country, only 50% of the electricity created (by burning coal, gas, nuclear, or driven by turbines) ever makes to a lightbulb in the first place...
And with CARS, we're not talking about 40 watt light bulbs or recharging AA batteries here...
I re-iterate... Dumbest idea EVER... GIB x1000
@Nancy Pelosi
ReplyDeleteBite me...
mcHappy! that was a major disappointment! This is how I want to go higher.
ReplyDeletekaren-
ReplyDeletethat's funny- I was thinking exactly what CV was thinking-
there are some great natural slides in the Shenandoah mountains
McH, Karen,
ReplyDeleteYall have it all wrong...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_V5YvDyn3YE
and speaking of wild rides.. crude since 8AM ET on the 5 min chart.. zig zag madness to the downside.. expecting the next leg down to commence now.
ReplyDeleteSucker born every minute... hmmm, maybe they'll invest in my company's IPO
ReplyDeletenew products division
C,
ReplyDeleteexactly, plugging those things in to charge, at least for right now, defeats the idea of the car being "green"
suckers indeed, you can get a lot of cool cars with good gas mileage for 50k
hmm, sly stone, that's one strange dude.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteAll I know is this... If the morons in this country start insisting that we go the route of electric cars (and think that we're going to generate all out energy from the sun & wind)... They've got another thing coming...
When you start adding the claw of electricity demands from cars... and put that into competition for the same electricity you use to run your BIG SCREEN TV, microwave oven, & god forbid if you heat your home with electric heat...
Well... Start preparing for your ELECTRIC BILL to be over $1000 a month...
And that will happen whether OR NOT you even own an electric car or not...
So the poor old lady living in East St. Louis will shiver to death in her ice box tenement during the winter because she can't afford to heat her little box up...
But Joe Camel (out in Santa Barbara) will be looking pretty fly in his Tesla though...
I swear to God people are morons...
CV isn't "green" because he's worried about the environment... CV is "green" because he's worried about MORONIC LIBERALS...
@Karen,
ReplyDeleteHa, yeah, Creed is awful. I was expecting to get some grief on that one. I thought about downloading the Kid Rock and Creed lead singer threesome instead but I thought I'd keep it PG. lol
CV @ 1:36
ReplyDeleteHow's that wind turbine of yours working out?
This is the kind of talk I like:
ReplyDeleteA casually dressed Bill Fleckenstein was on Bloomberg TV bursting assorted myths and bubbles. First, Bill discusses how the market is no longer a discounting mechanism, noting that "after having completely ignored the bursting of the dot com and the real estate bubbles, i think this a function of the fact that since Greenspan took over the Fed and serially bailed out bigger and bigger problems with more and more easy money, the market evolved into much more of a speculative casino, and a lot more momentum type traders began to operate and everything always resolved itself on the upside... We have had much more of a speculative market that seems not to discount problems."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-fleckenstein-says-you-cant-trust-sp-pe-multiples-all-financials-earnings-are-pure-nonse
I-Man-
ReplyDeletedude- "just feel"- lol
those old Bruce Lee movies crack me up- the sound effects especially-
check this out!
Fake Purse Ninjas
speaking of cars....check out F chart today....
ReplyDeleteI-Man, that was most probably the most annoying lead in to a song ever.. that only got worse!
ReplyDeletewith this much debt i seriously doubt their PE:
ReplyDelete(MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. said Wednesday that it's slashing another $4 billion-plus in debt, mostly by paying cash to its union retiree trust ahead of schedule, in an attempt to shore up its balance sheet.
Shares of Ford (F) rallied more than 3% in opening trades to $10.20.
Combined with an April payment of $3 billion, the auto maker has cut $7 billion in debt during the second quarter, which will lead to savings of more than $470 million in annual interest costs.
"We expect to continue to improve our balance sheet as we deliver on our plan," said Alan Mulally, Ford's chief executive officer. "Our business results make it possible to take these actions while still accelerating the investments we are making in our business to serve our customers with the very best cars and trucks."
Dearborn, Mich.-based Ford still carries about $27 billion in debt. The company faces a tougher battle in terms of debt than General Motors and Chrysler, which were able to clean up their balance sheets in bankruptcy.
@DL
ReplyDeleteI'm still trying to find the right spot for it...
Strangely, it's not been very windy lately... You need about 10 mph to get it going decently...
But there are other times that it'll spin like crazy and fill up a charge in no time...
The best system, if you want to experiment with a small 500 - 1000w of power (which is really only good enough to power a small array of things that require a constant flow (and don't have amp yanks)... Would be to get, say, 512W of solar & a small wind turbine with the same generating capacity and feed them into the same battery...
I'm talking REAL SMALL system here...
But CV believes in "tinkering" in small scale operations and building rather than laying down enormous sums of money on something that doesn't end up working that well...
For instance, I just use these things as "add-ons" when I want to add new demands for energy... (like, say, extra florescent lights for growing, small heaters for aquariums, or refrigerator/freezer motors)...
this 1045 are is bugging the heck out of me.. typically when we have flat-lined like this the move is to the upside..
ReplyDeleteGS: "If we're down the market will go nowhere. Capiche?"
ReplyDeletekaren, there is also that issue of a quadruple bottom, which I don't really think exists, and everyone (or a lot of people are) is writing about the H&S....
ReplyDeleteuup is hanging up there.. would love to see it move higher : )
ReplyDeleteKaren-
ReplyDeleteFord mortgaged their whole future when they took on that debt-
it was high risk/high reward strategy-
they deserve a lot more kudos than either GM or Chrysler who took the government sponsored BK option-
and it appears their cars are rising to the top of the quality surveys-
as CV would say- they have that going for them
@McF
ReplyDelete1.21 jigga-watts...
Great! Then it's official...
If we're going to drive electric cars, it should be the LAW that they're effin DeLoreans...
But don't forget I thought we were going higher and I am the ultimate contrarian indicator.... oh wait, but then I somewhat changed my mind and thought we were going down..... this is why the market is going nowhere - because I can't decide where to place my chips.
ReplyDeleteYes, it is all about mcHAPPY.
Figures: ECB Biggest Guarantor Of European Banks
ReplyDeletea long article with interesting anecdotes on the Vancouver RE bubble:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/06/bw-vancouver-canada-housing-bubble.html
heading out-
ReplyDeletefor a good laugh everyone needs to click on my "Fake Purse Ninja" link-
all have an awesome day