Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Morning Audibles 6.09.10 Now I've Heard Everything

Headline on BLOOMBERG NEWS...


"Waste on Freight Cars Gains in Confirmation of Rebound"


I'm telling you people, you can't make this stuff up... Hear that people? Go back to buying stocks because Choo Choo Charlie is hauling more and more of the useless crap you've bought from the Chinese to the landfills...




Excerpt(s):

"Shipments of waste and scrap have a higher correlation with economic growth than coal or copper, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. (To see an Interactive Insight version of the story, click here.)


“It’s sort of like measuring horsepower by looking at the smoke coming out of the tail pipe,” Carl Riccadonna, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, said in a telephone interview. “It’s consistent with our broader view that economic growth is accelerating.”

I don't want to list ALL the problems I have with this kind of analysis (or else I risk getting more confusing than the extrapolation of the story itself)...

My only "kinship" with this kind of article would be to say that, as a journalist, on a slow news day (such as perhaps, TODAY - [thanks to more "miracle kicksaves" in equities by an entity with a printing press]), one has to dig far into the nether regions to pull out a story, and slop it onto your plate like a prison chowline.




"It's sort of like measuring horsepower by looking at the smoke coming out of the tail pipe"... Can somebody please explain to CV how THAT is done, exactly?... If I'm out of my league with these new HIGH TECH forms of analysis, please somebody set me straight in the process...

And what's the data sample?

I mean, is there a new CZAR, or some position like that on the government payroll that you're paying to produce these helpful data bits? Does Bernanke get a 10,000 page report plunked on his desk to peruse while sipping on his morning kool-aid coffee?





CV has some possible explanations, ranging from the obvious:

- "Gee, I'm thinking that when people get booted out of their houses, office spaces are abandoned, and strip malls become ghost towns, there's potentially a lot of mess to clean up"
OR
- "Gee with a mobilized force dispatched to the Gulf area to clean up tar balls, there's gotta be a lot of waste to clean up in the process"

Or, I'm happy with the "outlandish" as well...

"Maybe those "shovel ready" jobs are just people on opposite sides of the CSX train tracks loading crap to be transported back and forth"

I know that there are some blogs who relish this type of data as TYPICAL... But please BLOOMBERG... Please!... Don't tell me that we're all "pinning our hopes for a recovery" on trash!









272 comments:

  1. ...how come nobody is in line to see "an inconvenient truth"?

    answer...

    they are all reading CV's blog, duh...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Effing futures have been on a march upwards since 3:30 est on ES 15-min charts. BS.

    ReplyDelete
  3. ...that's about the time they get to work in London

    ReplyDelete
  4. Wes

    So It looks like London is also intervening on the euro because the SNB can't afford to do it anymore.

    ReplyDelete
  5. ...would not be surprised...

    and to see a bump in the euro...

    ...temporarily, anyway

    ReplyDelete
  6. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/merkel-sarkozy-press-eu-short-selling-ban-2010-06-09?dist=beforebell
    Merkel, Sarkozy press EU short selling ban

    By William L. Watts, MarketWatch

    LONDON (MarketWatch) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy called on European officials to consider a ban on certain types of short sales ahead of a July meeting of European Union finance ministers, news reports said.

    In a joint letter to European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso released Wednesday, Merkel and Sarkozy said an EU ban on naked short selling of certain shares and bonds may be necessary, the Associated Press reported.

    Haven't they learned that this DOESN'T work. When will they learn?

    ReplyDelete
  7. ...although don't know why UK would intervene on behalf of the euro, but, the derivative traders are big in London...so, maybe not so much CB intervention, but levered-up traders...?

    ReplyDelete
  8. HAHAHA I see ZH is down (and it's early). Must have had some info causing market jitters. Probably about credit spreads getting blown out on sovereign debt (again).

    ReplyDelete
  9. Wes

    Someone's (or some countries) ass needed to be covered.

    ReplyDelete
  10. ..OK, Ra, they are all working together CB's, that is...got it

    ReplyDelete
  11. US home buying applications sank for a fifth straight week to a fresh 13-year low, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.

    this just doesn't seem to get enough air play- but come May sales numbers for homes-

    expect abysmal

    ReplyDelete
  12. Well, as soon as I went short the market jumped - I'm not surprised. Not that I think the market revolves around me, just that my knack for bad timing is spectacular - especially after being so patient for a week.

    Anyways, I see the following scenarios:

    1) My dream - we are completing a large A-B-C flat correction. This would still be minor 2. Doubtful. If this was the case we should push to 1104.91 (a=c) and 1109 would be the .382 retracement of minor 1. Very doubtful. However still probable given we have not breached 1040.78 - yet. Because of this low probability I will post the following: if working on a C wave with B having ended at 1042.17 and i ended at 1057.80. ii ended at 1043.84 (.786 of i wouldh ave been 1045.51). We are working on iii with 1069.23 being 1.618 of i and 1084.86 being 2.619 of i.

    2) minor 2 ended at 1105.67 and minor 3 started. We ended minute 1 at 1042.17 of minor 3. minute ii targets would be: .382 1066.23, .5 1073.92, .618 1081.41, .786 1092.08.

    Ready for lots of cold steel.

    ReplyDelete
  13. speaking of garbage (waste), remember April:

    "Stocks Remain In A Powerful Bull Market." (April 10 Bloomberg)
    "Stocks Haven't Lost Their Appeal As The Market Goes Up, Up, And Away." (April 21 US News & World Report)
    "You can use any number of words to describe this bull market. Frothy is not one of them. This market is reasonably priced." (April 21 AP)
    "US Stocks Post Longest Winning Streak Since 2004. The recovery should be sustainable and that will drive the market." (April 24 Bloomberg)
    "All the economic reports are pointing up... despite lingering worries over debt problems in Greece. Right now, there is virtually no evidence of a top." (April 30 USA Today)


    The market had its worst May since 1940. Ooops.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Left out invalidation points:

    1) breach of 1043.94.

    2) breach of 1042.17 to the downside or 1105.67 to the upside.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Wasn't there a major war or something going on in 1940?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Look at all that support, might be tough falling below it for any length of time...

    SPX

    ReplyDelete
  17. b22-

    like those quotes- I am sure if there was a wayback machine a la Professor Peabody- folks would go back in time and retract them

    ReplyDelete
  18. hard to say ahab, I'd guess at least half the people that wrote those see this as a buying opportunity. See anon's 9:06 for starters.

    ReplyDelete
  19. @Amen

    ZH Down

    I happened to be up very early this morning and they did, in fact have some kind of headline article about the NEW LIST of which countries were on the "Top 10" list of default risk (according to bets)...

    IOW - Whose "flesh" are the zombies being attracted to...

    Seems the US made an appearance in the #4...

    Don't know if that's it or not...

    ReplyDelete
  20. but then again, gonna be hard to bust through this area of resistance

    <a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p14589932597>SPX</a>

    ReplyDelete
  21. catching up on last posts to yesterday's thread and ar's wrap...

    @ ben
    i'll forward your request. in any case, she'll be complimented by your interest. thanks

    @ PE
    did i.d. change have anything to do with previous "outing"? we need to be circumspect here, methinks.

    ReplyDelete
  22. good morning! not liking those futures but we'll see.. hilarious post, CV.. great compilation of headlines, Ben, thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Mind you the SPX is barely $5 over fair value. So it's not as bullish as it looks :-)

    ReplyDelete
  24. Anon @ 9:15, you coulda just said my top! we all know that area...

    ReplyDelete
  25. oh and also, in case you all missed it yesterday, now Oblahblah **really has this oil spill under control, he is talking to "experts" to find out who's ass he needs to kick (his words) I mean hell, he was standing down there with fisherman a month ago, in the RAIN even, (OMG!) and now these talking heads are just now getting interested in this thing so he's going to get to the bottom of it....and kick some ass.

    I really wish bush wouldn't have left Obama with this spill.....on no wait, that's the economy argument....damn, maybe I should go back to bed.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Whoopsie.... left out my third option.

    3) we are in wave iv of minute 1 of minor 3. iii ended at 1042.17 and started at 1103.95. .382 of iii would be 1065.77 and .5 would be 1073.06.

    Invalidations would be a rise above 1091.81.

    I am leaning towards option 3 - i.e. this one.

    ReplyDelete
  27. @anon

    Very interesting charts. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  28. And sub-prime was contained...

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The financial arm for General Electric Co. doesn't foresee a second recession occurring in the U.S. and that the financial turmoil in Europe is unlikely to tamper domestic growth. "Most of our customers are Main Street, small to mid-ticker size businesses," said Dan Henson on Wednesday, the chief executive for the North America unit of GE Capital. "It's Americans selling to Americans, Canadians selling to Canadians and Mexicans selling to Mexicans...I don't see the EU presenting a problem here," he said. Earlier, Henson said he doesn't see a "double-dip" recession occurring in the U.S., though he added that prolonged volatility and economic pressure would require a review of that outlook. "We are hearing cautious optimism," he said. "We predict positive momentums and trends" for North America.

    ReplyDelete
  29. So we are back to my recoveryless recovery.. a typical recovery in which the jobless rate doesn't matter (cuz no one has to pay their mtg and food stamps are free) and real estate prices continue to fall...

    ReplyDelete
  30. re Obama- the media is a whore and will harangue the shit out of someone- whether Bush or Obama- as if they could stop a hurricane or a drilling disaster-

    re Katrina- where was the state of Louisiana and the Mayor of NO?

    why Bush getting the blame? The dude is up in Washington- as if he had a big map laid out watching Katrina thinking about all the possible ramifications and coming up w/ a battle plan- fucking ridiculous-

    the left was all over him-

    same thing w/ Obama- why would he have any clue how to resolve the after effects of an explosion on a drilling platform-

    now the right is taking a swing- ludicrous

    the dumbest thing Obama did was saying he was in charge-

    not a bright move

    ReplyDelete
  31. attempting a first piece of drv at the 20 ema and will go for a second piece at the up trendline..

    ReplyDelete
  32. . . .and Karen-

    who's gonna win- Brown or Whitman?

    I liked Brown when he was running for President (92?)

    and there were images of him burning the tax code-

    I actually caught him campaigning in Alexandria when I was out busting a business or two for not depositing their employee's payroll taxes

    ReplyDelete
  33. on deck today:

    MBA Purchase Applications
    7:00 AM ET

    Ben Bernanke Speaks
    10:00 AM ET

    Wholesale Trade
    10:00 AM ET

    EIA Petroleum Status Report
    10:30 AM ET

    10-Yr Note Auction
    1:00 PM ET

    Beige Book
    2:00 PM ET

    Ben Bernanke Speaks
    4:00 PM ET

    ReplyDelete
  34. ahab, i don't know what either of them are saying to tell you the truth.. and DL's mood rubbed off on my yesterday evening.. so i won't be any fun today. SIA

    ReplyDelete
  35. @ahab

    The dumbest thing Obama did was run for President

    ReplyDelete
  36. Five Things You Need to Know About the Market from Todd Harrison.. i wanted to post this yesterday but couldn't get the link until today.

    ReplyDelete
  37. DL's mood?

    who cares- lol

    ReplyDelete
  38. @ahab

    But now that he did, and won... Of course a THINKING person knows that "the spill" was not his fault...

    The media coverage comes with the job... Obama got nothing but a free pass for many years now (whereas Bush only received negative press from Day 1 - more than 8 years of it)...

    Just watch these last 2 1/2 years into 2012...

    The "finger pointing" will begin in earnest (starting with mid-terms)...

    It's CANNIBAL time, again, in American politics ladies & gents!

    ReplyDelete
  39. CV-

    2008 was one of the worst election choices on the planet-

    my sister ended up voting for Obama- so enamored she was by his rhetoric and oratory at a campaign rally out here in Virginia-

    my advice to her was- be prepared to be disappointed

    ReplyDelete
  40. Take a look at this chart...

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_W81p7-uAm3Y/TA-Qb-B8GOI/AAAAAAAAC-U/HqWDjNrF84U/s1600/DOW+EOD+2.png

    ReplyDelete
  41. Bush only received negative press from Day 1

    that is a fact my man-

    Bush got the laugh- because he never gave a shit what they thought- dude I am sure slept like a baby-

    Obama on the other hand- he worries about his image- we'll see if it effects him-

    remember Carter after 4 years- dude looked like the life was sucked right out of him

    ReplyDelete
  42. last post should read-

    "Bush got the last laugh"

    ReplyDelete
  43. @ahab

    I gotta admit... During the 2008 campaign, I'd have never voted for the GOP candidate... But I sure wasn't going to vote for Obama either (I ended up "writing in" and entry on the ballot)...

    Funny thing is, the main thing that "bugged" me about Obama was all the fluff and hoopla... I just didn't GET IT...

    But in the aftermath, little did I realize that he'd be this bad...

    It started on DAY ONE (when he filled his "economic team" with the likes of Geithner & Summers)...

    Basically, I can mostly FORGIVE everything else (altho HC still irks me)... But Geithner and Summers send me over the edge...

    ReplyDelete
  44. $Trin (my construct)

    SPX 2.47
    NYSE 1.19
    NASDAQ 1.19

    Seems like more money is flowing into declining issues (for now).

    ReplyDelete
  45. @ahab

    I remember in 2008 getting into discussing with my golfing buddies about BO...

    I was like... Great! People like him... He's a likeable guy... So make him Secretary of State or something... Or "Ambassador to Venezuela"...

    ReplyDelete
  46. CV, so you would rather of had Palin as VP?

    ReplyDelete
  47. @ Anon

    I encourage you to take a look at some longer term charts...

    The big story in the tape is not to be found in the daily timeframe.


    Here's an example, and this one only goes back to 2005, I think you will find a different interpretation of support:

    http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/06/spx-monthly-annotation.html


    Here's another longer term chart, "The Long Count," its the chart at the top of the post, that focuses more on the "lateral" support:

    http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/05/spx-trinity-43010.html

    Hope that helps.

    I agree with you that 1040 is key support, but when you look deeper, it doesnt appear too solid, or very important for that matter.

    ReplyDelete
  48. @ CV

    Re: your MA crossover chart (moving avg, not marty armstrong :) )

    That MACD looks like its about to get repelled at the zero line, no?

    ReplyDelete
  49. What do people use for chart viewing? I have been using freestockcharts.com. The last 15 minutes is always estimated - I can live with that - made a mistake before and learned from it. However, I was doing my counts last night and the chart values have changed between then and now. It is really a pain.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Must read at MM today!

    Wednesday, June 09, 2010

    In Markets land something is afoot. There be portents of change. Getting a bit school-Macbethy, there be rabbits laying their eggs in the trees. The mistletoe be a'flowerin' early, the cows be givin' birth to dead eels and even the wrong type of oil is found in the Gulf (not ours claim BP).

    Now please don your tin helmets for a tour of the conspiracy theory


    http://macro-man.blogspot.com/
    replete with aapl digs, too!

    ReplyDelete
  51. @karen

    You didn't read my comment... I didn't vote GOP...

    ReplyDelete
  52. LOL

    All the banks are red (save for C which is up 3%)...

    ReplyDelete
  53. cv, i meant "rather have had" and it seems that is what you are wishing on us as those were the choices available! laughing.

    ReplyDelete
  54. from DR this morning:

    • Bonds still have more fun: please don’t come to us with a bearish view on government treasuries because of fiscal policy

    ReplyDelete
  55. @ McH

    If you are trading the intraday, then you absolutely must have realtime charting capability, imo.

    I'm using what we have at my firm, which is ThomsonOne. Its a pretty good charting package, but I'm sure its pretty expensive, and not even sure if its available for individuals.

    I always like the look of stockcharts.com, but wasnt all that impressed with the realtime stuff.

    Since I'm leaving my firm, I will lose my charting ability until I come up with something new.

    CV's prophetcharts look cool, I know they are free.

    I plan on playing around with metatrader next week, I'll let you know how it goes.

    I'm really hoping my new firm has some cool charting software that I can use for the futures markets.

    Otherwise, I'm going to have to spring for something on my own.

    ReplyDelete
  56. @ ahab
    "remember Carter after 4 years- dude looked like the life was sucked right out of him"
    i remember. suspect it might have been because he really cared about the people, rather than politics.

    ReplyDelete
  57. 72b-

    exactly- he wasn't sleeping well at night- Carter was a good man- and he let it get to him

    ReplyDelete
  58. @karen

    As I said... There were no good choices (which is why I "wrote in")...

    And I'm not a Palin fan (which - I sure hope isn't the new direction people decide to turn)...

    Just as I say Obama should have been an "Ambassador" (or something of that nature)... I believe Palin's best role would likely be in a hiked up skirt on a FOX TV news show...

    But for conjecture... Answer me something... WHAT IF... let's say, someone like Palin won, then the first move was to put Paul Volcker in charge of the Fed, and use, say, Ron Paul, as Treasury Secretary...

    How might your opinion change?

    Don't answer (because it's all silly conjecture and would never happen)... But the EXERCISE of "conjecture" tends to put things in perspective...

    There's NO MORE CONJECTURE about Obama... He's already acted...

    Before the election, all there was was CONJECTURE (by the media - who liked the image portrayal - and spoon fed it to a public that doesn't do much thinking on their own)...

    It would be an understatement to say that he hasn't lived up to the hype...

    ReplyDelete
  59. Who turned on the afterburners?

    ReplyDelete
  60. US Focus Turns to Cutting Deficit, Not Stimulus- CNBC

    interesting turn of things- deflationary for sure- maybe they are raising the white flag- or can't be out-positioned by Europe

    ReplyDelete
  61. @AmenRa (10:47)

    Probably TWSWB's quants (which are set to the "TYPICAL RECOVERY" setting and have a lot of cash to play with)...

    ReplyDelete
  62. @ahab

    They'll REVERSE that headline when the S&P hits 800...

    ReplyDelete
  63. Depending on how much fuel is in the tank, Ra...

    I have marked 1076 and 1095.

    ReplyDelete
  64. @I-Man

    CV still has 1000 marked :-)

    ReplyDelete
  65. Yeah, me too...

    But, you know.

    Cornered rats do stupid shit.

    ReplyDelete
  66. 1073.92 would be .5 retracement off 1105.67-1042.17.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. central bank will act as needed to aid financial stability and economic growth after restarting emergency currency-swaps to help contain Europe’s debt crisis.

    “Our ongoing international cooperation sends an important signal to global financial markets that we will take the actions necessary to ensure stability and continued economic recovery,” Bernanke said today in testimony to a House Budget Committee hearing.

    The impact of the crisis on U.S. growth is “likely to be modest” if financial markets “continue to stabilize,” he said. He reiterated that the U.S. recovery is being restrained by the housing and commercial real-estate markets and repeated his call for lawmakers to come up with a long-term deficit- reduction plan."


    Translation: You'll continue to bend over and take it for making sure that Greek & Spanish hairdressers can retire on a comfortable wage...

    You, meanwhile, will feel no pain (only your grandkids will), and I'll be outta here by then...

    ReplyDelete
  68. ZH still down. Must have been pretty good so the NSA had to stop them.

    ReplyDelete
  69. You know...

    If the idea is to do "market interventions" to try and hold this thing up, they're really not doing a very good job...

    Every time an OVERSOLD condition is reached, the turnaround is gunned so quickly in the other direction that it becomes OVERBOUGHT in short order...

    They'd be better off just letting it FIND its lower level and let positions adjust from there...

    Lots of "cooks"... Little "soup"...

    ReplyDelete
  70. zerohedge servers are down temporarily. we hope to fix the problems shortly 6 minutes ago via TweetDeck

    ReplyDelete
  71. also- following up on CV's 11:04 post-

    Bernanke says recovery on track despite headwinds

    what does that even mean? on track for what? this from the same dude who saw no housing bubble- when more simple minds saw it a mile away-

    he needs to qualify that statement- on track meaning it will not crash imminently- or on track to future debt induced prosperity-

    it's funny that the unemployed are being thrown under the bus- don't need them for recovery I guess

    ReplyDelete
  72. @Amen (11:05)

    That's the good thing about CV... Nobody gives a s*** what I have to say, so I don't have to worry about the NSA coming in and shutting me down :-)

    ReplyDelete
  73. @ahab

    "on track" is all you need to know...

    The rest is far too sophisticated for someone like yourself to ever comprehend... :-)

    ReplyDelete
  74. CV @ 11:10-

    excellent point

    ReplyDelete
  75. @ahab

    I mean... Come on Man...

    Why don't you see any market interventions when the thing is going to Pluto?

    As if DOW 36,000 would sold everyone's problems...

    ReplyDelete
  76. "solve"... Freudian slip there

    ReplyDelete
  77. I guess the market got excited when BB said we were on track-

    such reassuring words that mean nothing-

    right up there w/ green shoots

    ReplyDelete
  78. A must read: Debt Growth Drives GDP Growth

    Obviously, this policy has its consequences…..

    ReplyDelete
  79. karen -
    kd puts up that same chart on a regular basis

    ReplyDelete
  80. I-Man is suffering from a major case of "Senioritis"...

    Its really tempting to just rathole all the shit I have to do between now and Tuesday, but that just aint my style I guess.

    Must... embrace... last... week... of... brokerage firm.

    ReplyDelete
  81. @I-Man

    Upon your deathbed you will receive TOTAL CONSCIOUSNESS... :-)

    ReplyDelete
  82. Embrace the suck, I-Man.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Another Gore (marriage) bites the dust...

    http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/37592147/ns/today-today_relationships/

    ReplyDelete
  84. I-man -- I've gone with stockcharts.com, so far so good. For futures, I subscribe to evilspeculator.com's zero product which comes w/ an ES 5 min chart which is good enough for me.

    ReplyDelete
  85. @I-Man

    On your way out... TAKE THE GOLDFISH!

    ReplyDelete
  86. evilspeculator.com...

    I love the sound of that!!!

    Thanks, anon

    ReplyDelete
  87. Don't worry... the market is rising. I just added another 1/3 to my short positions.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Nice site that, I Man.

    Prashant

    ReplyDelete
  89. BB reassuring all is well may be the market setting up for a top on 'good news'?

    I still do not believe the drop last week based on job numbers.... too bad to be a top.

    ReplyDelete
  90. CV, this is for you.. apologies if you have already seen it.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/anthony-fry-buy-barbed-wire-and-guns-2010-6

    ReplyDelete
  91. mchappy -
    joining you in the pool..., put the first toe back in the water with a little drv & spxu

    ReplyDelete
  92. has anyone taken a chance on BP @ around $34?

    ReplyDelete
  93. that's funny you posted that Karen- I was just thinking of that- thus my BP comment

    ReplyDelete
  94. twitter is constantly "over capacity" this morning.. unusual.

    ReplyDelete
  95. @karen

    While we're "linking"...

    I just made a post over at TWSWB's dig...

    With a great video link... Quick, look at it before it gets moderated off into NEVER NEVER LAND...

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/bernanke-says-nothing-new-on-economy-talks-on-budget/comment-page-1/#comment-316615

    ReplyDelete
  96. I don't see yours there CV just 2 from Ahab.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Gotta love Jerome Kerviel's facial expression on the cover of this mornings FT...

    ReplyDelete
  98. @karen

    Re: (11:54

    At this point, CV is WAY BEYOND obvious things like:

    - gold
    - land
    - guns & barbed wire

    and is off in the universe of 'more subtle' aspects... For instance:

    - You don't really even need the land actually... As one could construct a "fish farming" ecosystem in their apartment right in the middle of Manhattan (if they had to) with little investment.

    - I'm not a gig fan of guns... I understand that as the GRUNT approach... But if you're destined to LOSE there, you're gonna lose anyway and your end will come short & sweet... Better to polish up on your 'negotiating' skills... IOW - If an army arrives at your door, make FRIENDS with them... If they decide to shoot you... C'est la vie...

    - Now... Onto more important things... (you know, the "finer" things in life)...

    CV says... "Create yourself a TRADING OUTPOST"... Some of the following items may be VERY HANDY to unprepared individuals...

    - cigarettes
    - booze
    - toilet paper
    - soap
    - tooth brushes
    - tampons (for ladies)

    Think about it... In a crisis, an, um "gentleman" could do might well if he were the only one for miles who controlled a supply of tampons...

    ReplyDelete
  99. @Lord John

    They must have "moderated it away"...

    Anyway... Here was the POST


    ---

    cvienne Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    June 9th, 2010 at 11:54 am
    @VD

    Bernanke?

    As in “Why Are We Still Listening To This Guy”? Bernanke?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ79Pt2GNJo

    ReplyDelete
  100. I read somewhere that in the aftermath of the communist collapse blue jeans were quite valuable in Russia. Not the first thing I would think of stockpiling, but I guess people gotta wear something...

    ReplyDelete
  101. Calling a Bear a Bear

    "According to Bespoke Investment Group, there have been 58 "corrections" of 10% or more in the Standard & Poor's 500 since 1927. In 33 cases, the corrections stopped short of the 20% bear market threshold and the market went on to higher highs, while 25 times they grew into a full-grown grizzly.

    But in the 32 instances when the market has dropped as much as this one has -- 14.4% from the April 23 peak through Monday -- the outcome has been heavily weighted to the losing side. Only seven times drops of that size stopped short of the 20% bear mark. In the 25 other times the decline extended to 20%, the average bear market decline was 35.5%.

    As pointed out in that aforementioned column from last month, Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell was unequivocal in urging his subscribers to get out of stocks. And in his latest Remarks, the dean of market technicians is even more adamant. After listing a litany of bearish technical indicators, he concludes;

    "So all in all, I'm convinced through many of my studies that the top has been put in and the primary bear trend is again in force. Remember, the 14-month counter-trend advance served to hold back the bear forces, even though the bear pressure had been building up. For this reason, I'm afraid of what might occur in the weeks and months ahead. This, even though I believe a tame period is overdue."

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB127605459202003151.html?mod=BOL_hps_highlight

    ReplyDelete
  102. @spoonman

    You gotta think like a TRADERS OUTPOST...

    That's what a market is anyway...

    ReplyDelete
  103. @spoonman

    If things really ever get bad, I doubt I'll be online here talking with any of you guys and trading E-Minis...

    I'll be wheeling stuff around in a wooden cart...

    ReplyDelete
  104. That clip was UFB!!! (But did you have to subject me to Maria?!)

    ReplyDelete
  105. The fact that BB still has a job is UFB...

    ReplyDelete
  106. @karen

    Sorry about the "Maria" part... She just comes with the job...

    ReplyDelete
  107. CV-

    when your comment is awaiting moderation- you are the only one who can see it- it will not show up for anyone else-

    BR's had me in the doghouse a time or two

    ReplyDelete
  108. blogger will not let me post this link but i am determined to find a way:

    Factory Suicides

    ReplyDelete
  109. @karen

    But the question remains...

    "Why IN THE WORLD would anybody ever believe anything that Ben Bernanke says"?...

    I mean, his track record is like "0 for infinity"

    ReplyDelete
  110. Well, that would be exciting, I suppose. Imagine that...life without the internet. Absurd. It'll never happen. \snark

    ReplyDelete
  111. @ahab

    Well anyway, it was a POLITE comment...

    All I did was reference a video clip on what Bernanke has brought to the table thus far...

    If TWSWB chooses to eliminate that from a "Big Picture" look regarding BB's credibility, then so be it...

    ReplyDelete
  112. @spoonman

    Well anyway, with NO INTERNET, all those people who are on FOOD STAMPS (and thus have an extra $200 a month to spend), can buy Pumas from me off my cart instead of spending it on text messaging...

    ReplyDelete
  113. Perhaps already posted but I thought this was interesting.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/yale-buy-on-dips-stock-market-confidence-index/

    ReplyDelete
  114. Damnit! blogger just ate another post that i didn't copy first..

    Trader Mark went long in hopes of 1090..

    http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/06/bookkeeping-put-on-some-modest-long.html

    Personally, i wonder why fight the trend here? The trend is down.

    ReplyDelete
  115. CV-

    my guess is it will show up later- after moderation-

    . . .and VD-

    that dude kills me- I am not quite sure if he is serious- but I think he is-

    and at least 9 out of 10 posts mention the tea party-

    the tea party is stuck in his head-

    and I am like- why???? are you so hung up on them?

    does anyone really think about the tea party?

    ReplyDelete
  116. my FU of the week was not selling vxx for a rebuy.. my target was hit, too.

    ReplyDelete
  117. If we want to get in to FU's for the week, I nominate myself for not buying TZA TWICE at $6.60.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is make by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.

    George Soros

    ReplyDelete
  119. CV-

    have you considered tobacco as a cash crop? or can people grow tobacco anymore?

    you know organic- straight up tobacco- the kind that's good for you- lol

    ReplyDelete
  120. CV, I posted at TBP for you.. it seemed to take.. LOL.

    ReplyDelete
  121. @karen

    Speaking of trendlines...

    NEW CHART IN THREAD... This one has my attention at the moment...

    ReplyDelete
  122. Well, we are half way to my uber-uber-uber bearish count. THat will help get me through the next couple of days of cold steel. Unless we go down convincingly in the next 2 days, I will be all in on Friday - but I am most definitely getting ahead of myself.

    ReplyDelete
  123. On 6/7/10 the SPX closed below its 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. Major weakness. TPTB scared sh*tless. On 6/8/10 ushed SPX over that line and the 2/5/10-5/21/10 trendline. Whew they said. Today has pushed the SPX over its 2/5/10-5/6/10 trendline. All clear TPTB say. HAHAHA yeah right.

    ReplyDelete
  124. @ahab

    I don't really have the land for a tobacco crop...

    Seriously - if it ever became legal to do so, I'd consider growing some INDO

    ReplyDelete
  125. That is a chart for sore eyes, CV.. love it!

    ReplyDelete
  126. @Amen (12:45)

    Great... Now that they've FLUSHED OUT all the shorts, there's NOTHING to put a bid under the market at any level...

    Let the CRASHING begin! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  127. If today closes in the green then the new pattern G-G means R-R is next. Just saying.

    ReplyDelete
  128. CV,

    Great chart. From what I was working on it would tie in very nicely with the .5 retracement of minute wave 1 of minor 3. We could be approaching a top of minute ii. I'm looking for a break of 1057.8 and then 1056.43 for possible confirmation. However, a drop to 1059 and another push higher is definitely on the table as well.

    ReplyDelete
  129. okay- i give up- what's INDO

    ReplyDelete
  130. @karen

    I wouldn't be surprised to see a "false breakout" of that trendline at some point...

    But I'd really be looking to see if any break got reeled straight back in (and/or - the PATTERN of any false break - such as a mini H&S - or the types of candles involved and other technicals)...

    ReplyDelete
  131. @ahab

    INDO

    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?defid=868244&term=indo

    ReplyDelete
  132. Shhhhhh! dont' tell BR:

    “Until this debt overhang is removed either through repayment or default we will continue in the economic doldrums. That is what makes this recession-depression different from any other that you and I have lived through, and why empirical comparisons with the 70's, 80's, and 90's are useless. ” — Armando Alizo

    Read the article and comments here:

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB127569273572601237.html#articleTabs%3Darticle

    ReplyDelete
  133. @Amen

    I hope its R-RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

    ReplyDelete
  134. get ready for tomorrow:

    BOE Announcement
    7:00 AM ET

    ECB Announcement
    7:45 AM ET

    International Trade
    8:30 AM ET

    Jobless Claims
    8:30 AM ET

    Tim Geithner Speaks
    10:00 AM ET

    Quarterly Services Survey
    10:00 AM ET

    EIA Natural Gas Report
    10:30 AM ET

    3-Month Bill Announcement
    11:00 AM ET

    6-Month Bill Announcement
    11:00 AM ET

    30-Yr Bond Auction
    1:00 PM ET

    Treasury Budget
    2:00 PM ET

    Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET

    ReplyDelete
  135. was in mtgs this morning and get out to see that we are up... in fact, according to some we are "surging"...thank god for headlines that help me explain the causes of these surges:

    "Stocks surge on Bernanke's optimism‎"

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/09/markets/markets_newyork/

    ReplyDelete
  136. that g-g / r-r talk was over my head : (

    ReplyDelete
  137. @McHappy,

    re: charts....not sure what you want to spend but I've heard a lot of good things about TradeStation and I know they didn't go down at all during the flash crash. I'm pretty sure this is what Andy uses.

    @I....thompson one costs a lot of money for an individual I think...we have that here too.

    ReplyDelete
  138. did you all watch the optionsmonster updates yesterday? they were very good, and based on the trades they were seeing I'm not surprised to see VXX beat up a little today.

    ReplyDelete
  139. okay- what does everyone think of these short positions-

    http://shareplanner.com/images/Market_Analysis/2010/06-June/shortlist6910pt1.png

    CV- guess I need to brush up on marijuana knowledge

    ReplyDelete
  140. Happy "Froth" day. 5 year anniversary of Greenie's infamous "froth" comment about the housing bubble.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/happy-froth-day.html

    ReplyDelete
  141. ahab,

    I certainly wouldn't buy AAPL up here, but that's not a stock for shorting, at least not for me. COH short could be interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Karen,

    the only Surge I will embrace is this one:

    http://www.x-entertainment.com/articles/sodas/7.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  143. Tim Geithner Speaks
    10:00 AM ET


    everyone's holding their breath- it's that important

    ReplyDelete
  144. Vulture investors buy up distressed mortgages

    As CEO of Kondaur Capital Corp., which buys thousands of distressed mortgages at a discount and rehabilitates them for resale, Daurio tries to flip those mortgages as quickly as possible.

    He has no desire to buy and hold, because he thinks homes are worth less and less as time goes by.

    "I think housing prices nationally will drop 10 to 20 percent over the next three years," he said. "We aim to be in and out of the loan in six months."

    ReplyDelete
  145. it isn't important ahab, his little shoot around with the Chinese got more press than anything that has come out of his mouth in the last two months.

    also, I think I'm going to start making habit of talking about the "lightning bolt" recovery....seems fitting given that we are dealing with a Wizard.

    ReplyDelete
  146. I'm telling you... CV is thinking this is setting up to be just like a FLASH CRASH 2...

    There's "technical" reason to go either way here... Both bulls & bears are kind of trapped...

    But think about it...

    - Next week is OPEX week (followed by only 8 trading days until end of quarter)...

    If I'm Jamie or Lloyd, I pull the plug right now... Let the market test a new low and come roaring back on high volatility going into next Friday... Then, spend the last 8 days of the month doing the backing and filling thing...

    - Let MOMOS do the job of "confirming" that bottom as "earnings season" starts in July... They have to buy anyway... I'm thinking that Q3 has to start with an EASY MARK base... If equities are still up in "nose bleed" territory, come the end of September it's going to be awfully hard to keep people from pulling even more money out of funds...

    Just saying...

    ReplyDelete
  147. b22-

    the short list- a post from slope of hope- thought it was interesting- It appears he is doing all positions at the same time

    and no-one answered my BP question- would you buy in the $34 range- here is more info-

    More Than 6,000 Lawsuits Filed Against BP

    I know BR is on board having already bought shares

    ReplyDelete
  148. @ahab

    anything for a buck...

    ReplyDelete
  149. ahab,

    I don't know how to track that many individual short positions...way too much going on there for my style,....as for BP, DL thinks it's going to bottom eventually, lol.

    Maybe it's a buy here, I don't know anything about the stock....but like I said yesterday, I don't see getting long here as being much different than trying to short every move down in 2009, and if you are buying to buy and hold, you already lost, eventually dollars are worthless.

    So sure, speculate away in BP, buying what you hate is the new "being objective"

    ReplyDelete
  150. @ahab

    I don't see why Obama doesn't just adopt the same strategy...

    I mean... He could just say that his Administration created a QUANT, and that actually ALGOS are determining the best policy strategy for this country...

    Then, he could just hide reasoning behind his ALGOS (and not take any responsibility)...

    ReplyDelete
  151. from Paul Volker, the recognition stage of collapse is emerging:

    “Has the contribution of the modern world of finance to economic growth become so critical as to support remuneration to its participants beyond any earlier experience and expectations? Does the past profitability of and the value added by the financial industry really now justify profits amounting to as much as 35 to 40 percent of all profits by all US corporations? Can the truly enormous rise in the use of derivatives, complicated options, and highly structured financial instruments really have made a parallel contribution to economic efficiency? If so, does analysis of economic growth and productivity over the past decade or so indicate visible acceleration of growth or benefits flowing down to the average American worker who even before the crisis had enjoyed no increase in real income?"

    ReplyDelete
  152. I don't know how to track that many individual short positions.

    that was my thought

    re BP- obviously sheer speculation- but it would appear to me that BP has its hands full and the stock could just keep going down- and who would buy them w/ all these opened ended issues-

    CV- O has too much ego not too jump and take credit - like saying he was in charge of the BP situation- harebrained move there

    ReplyDelete
  153. ben -
    love your new "off to to see the wizard" avatar.
    re your request, email me at batmando at gmail

    ReplyDelete
  154. gotta roll out-

    will check in later-

    hope my SDS can manage to finish in the green today

    ReplyDelete
  155. zerohedge
    Nothing from debtwire yet on BP hiring bankruptcy lawyer
    4 minutes ago via TweetDeck

    zerohedge
    New post: BP ADRs Plunging As Two Rumors Of Imminent Bankruptcy Hit Market http://tinyurl.com/33rnoos
    6 minutes ago via Drupal

    todd_harrison
    BP credit spreads are blowing out.-who has counter-party risk? A pelican in the gulf may have profound consequences throughout the world.
    38 minutes ago via TweetDeck
    Retweeted by minyanville and 1 other

    ReplyDelete
  156. 72,

    will do, and yeah, I figured that avatar would be good for a bit here, fitting.

    Credit will make them sleep.....credit......

    ReplyDelete
  157. doesn't JPM own roughly 25% of BP?

    who has counterparty risk?

    Some potential candidates, but these guys are such money traders...probably not:

    C, AIG, BAC, WFC, .....oh wait....yeah any bank or chop shop pretending to be a bank...JP Marlin is likely involved as well.

    ReplyDelete
  158. wow- last post-

    BP down to about $30-

    maybe sometimes- you shouldn't buy what you hate- lol

    ReplyDelete
  159. ahab,
    so one thing I've thought about if there is a P3 is the scenario you just went through....BP is a deal at $35?....well not if it goes to $30.....then to 28, then 23 and then 17.50.

    I could see if there is a P3 that people could miss a move back down to the March lows, buy there, and still lose 50%.

    ReplyDelete
  160. a bear's bear:

    http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/06/video-look-for-global-10-15-trillion.html

    ReplyDelete
  161. ben @ 1:40, pull up a bp chart.. 30.13 today's low so far..

    ReplyDelete
  162. oops.. spoke to soon.. 29.92

    ReplyDelete
  163. karen,

    I see the P&F price objective on BP was met....I still wouldn't touch it.

    ReplyDelete
  164. ben, it may go to zero! LOL vultures circling their assets.. wait till the div is cancelled.

    ReplyDelete
  165. the chart going back to '96 is interesting.. 19.10

    ReplyDelete
  166. ben -

    "..will make them sleep" who's the wicked witch in this scenario?

    re avatars, note both you and ahab have "on the road" images...

    ReplyDelete
  167. CV,

    ROFLMAO

    Totally fitting that today's morning audibles is "Now I've Heard Everything".

    Run quick to MarketWatch's headline.

    ReplyDelete
  168. Er, I mean, type quick.

    Nevermind.

    Here it is:

    "FLYING ON BERNANKE'S WINGS"

    Now my friends, you have seen everything.

    ReplyDelete
  169. 72,

    though the wizard is our name for BB, the wizard in Oz ends up being an ok dude as I recall, so I think Bernanke is more like the witch, but we'll stick with wizard so as to not confuse anyone.

    ReplyDelete
  170. mchappy -
    release the flying monkeys

    ReplyDelete
  171. Follow the blood:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=BP+Major+Holders

    ReplyDelete
  172. I used to hide behind the chair on the flying monkey scene (and I was living in Kansas!)

    ReplyDelete
  173. e*trade is showing State Street Global Advisors with 43.5 million shares.

    ReplyDelete
  174. yes, the wizard was a well-meaning FRAUD! believe he was even called "professor" back in kansas

    ReplyDelete
  175. I think that's correct, it was his traveling wagon of tricks that Dorothy fell into when the twister came if I remember right, been a long time since I've seen that movie.

    ReplyDelete
  176. The last time BP was this low was in Sept 96. Ouch.
    Almost 14 years of gains wiped out.

    ReplyDelete
  177. i'm putting together a list of good divi payers.. so far i've got T and E (I already own DHT and the div was just reinstated.)

    ReplyDelete
  178. baum's original story supposedly was a parable about money reform "the cross of gold"

    ReplyDelete
  179. wait till the entire market looks like that....

    ReplyDelete
  180. bat, every goldbug knows that ! (and dorothy's slippers were originally silver, of course, not ruby : )

    ReplyDelete
  181. AZN looks good for a buy the dip, too.. i'm staying away from any and all spanish ADRs, however.

    ReplyDelete
  182. @McF

    SILENCE!

    You billowing bail of bovine fodder!

    ReplyDelete
  183. from bat's link:

    In 1896 Bryan delivered the following words at the Democratic National Convention: "Having behind us the producing masses of this nation and the world, supported by the commercial interests, the labouring interests, and the toilers everywhere, we will answer their [i.e. the bankers'] demand for a gold standard by saying to them: 'You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns; you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.'"


    And the description of the Wizard IS fitting for BB:

    After vanquishing the Wicked Witch of the East (the Eastern bankers) Dorothy frees The Munchkins (the little people). With the witch's silver slippers (the silver standard), Dorothy sets out on the Yellow Brick Road (the gold standard) to the Emerald City (Washington), where they meet the Wizard (the President), who appears powerful, but is ultimately revealed as an illusion; the real Wizard being just a little man who pulls levers behind a curtain.

    ReplyDelete
  184. You clinking, clanking, clattering collection of collaginous junk!

    ReplyDelete
  185. DT, another that is in the gutter with the euro.. but pays out nicely, only since 2006, i think..

    ReplyDelete
  186. "Silence, whipper-snapper."

    ReplyDelete
  187. Lions and Tigers and Bears, OH MY.. I am clearly not OT with my buy the dip/div payers posts...

    ReplyDelete
  188. no way in hell would I buy AZN, that place is a disaster and the dividend is hardly sustainable, no pipeline, and obviously no plans to get one as massive layoffs continue apace, primarily in R&D, extremely low worker moral, insufficiency in the supply chain....disaster, and a few miles from my office.

    that stock likely saw it's peak back in 06....it's not going back, unless you get lucky and they get bought.

    ReplyDelete
  189. I used to have about 50 clients at AZN, I only have 9 now, all the others quit or were let go....

    ReplyDelete
  190. @Amen Ra (2:12)

    Jeez... 14 years of college down the drain!

    ReplyDelete
  191. CV, your comment finally posted at TBP.. directly above mine which has been there all day..

    ReplyDelete
  192. so the main thing bothering the bearish case is this whole move from the highs really looks like a double zig zag at this point...and that would only imply corrective....

    further, I'm not seeing this as being in some 3 of 3....doesn't seem to be logical at this point, and EWI is likely to change that gold count very soon.

    ReplyDelete