A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
The creditcane has made landfall. Batten down the hatches!
SPXBearish long day. Resolved spinning tops lower. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is history. Well below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below 1041.83 (.1459 from high). Back below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (barely). New low on daily 3LB(reversal still 1117.51). Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (1 more day). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish short day. Confirmed bullish piercing. Midpoint just below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has held (91.80 is next). Back above the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.23).
VIXBullish long day. Back above the weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint above EMA(10). "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (1 more day here also).
GOLDSpinning top day. Safe haven I am. To me you come. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 1258.30).
EURUSDBearish long day (again). Midpoint below the EMA(10). Did not even test the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is back in play. Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 1.2393).
JNKSpinning top day (but more volatile). Evening star pattern CONFIRMED (look out). Tested the 38.2% retrace (failed) and the 23.6% retace (passed). Back below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish short day. Confirmed bearish engulfing. Possible start of morning star? Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).
BPBullish spinning top day. All of the MSM hype and it didn't go anywhere. Now above below the 0.0% retrace (using recent low). Still below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.68).
10YR YIELDBearish short day. Start of morning star pattern? Midpoint below EMA(10). Did not test 0.0% retrace (new 0.0% coming soon). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 31.15). Can you say 2.0%? Yes. Is the Fed getting worried yet? Bernocchio shaking so much he can't think straight.
AAPLBearish long day. Broke below the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Still above trendline using recent lows. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).
well, guess I didn't miss much the rest of the day. but 306 comments to catch up on.
ReplyDeletenow people, get out there and be value investors the great St. Warren, I'm no option rock star, but the DEC 18/10 SPY 110 puts I paid 8.40 last monday closed at 11.59 today, so see, all kinds of things are still undervalued!
met with a client of mine today that has been trying to sell a house she luckily unloaded last Friday for 30k more than she paid for it 2 years ago (philly) , she told me she had a buyer go all the way to close last month it was a middle aged couple, one dr. one attorney, what she thought was very solid income, but they had 200k of student loans that were in deferment, mtg company told them they would not extend them a mortgage unless they took the student loans out of deferment and began making payments on them....long story short, people took the student loans out of deferment and were denied the loan anyway, then being stuck paying the student loans they were trying to defer.
How crazy, I'd never heard of something just like that before (is that common Ahab?), and funny how in a round about way the system forced them out of debt in the end anyway.
Thanks Ra
ReplyDeleteMarabuzo's - my favourite candle!!
S&P 500 Advance Decline line was -498 today (1 up, 499 down). Only happened once during the entire collapse - 9/29/08.
Nic,
ReplyDeletethat's very p3 esque on the a/d, and if it is this early and this is p3 (IF) then 0 up 500 down days will happen several times during the duration of p3.
Great! P3 already :(
ReplyDeleteI don't have nearly enough canned food
ReplyDeleteNic
ReplyDeleteI would have loved a closing marubozu on the SPX.
I've already heard traders saying this is a great buying opportunity. Sheeeit. They better get Katy on speed dial. To top it off the ECB LTRO isn't until 7/1.
ReplyDeleteclients are asking about buying
ReplyDelete"well it looks like we were out and the market is down....should we get back in now"
what did we say about that lasting until 6,500?
Ben
ReplyDeleteMy SPX Jul puts at 5.80 are 15.50 (bought 6/17). Suffered through that squeeze but held tight. Added a trailing stop at close (can't stand getting squeezed).
Ben
ReplyDeleteDon't they know you can't pick a bottom and should wait for a confirmed turn?
awesome Ra, nice trade man. My last option trade of size didn't end so well so I'm happy to have this one.
ReplyDeleteand no you just buy for the long haul, there is no reason to worry about trends, that's market timing...baaaad.
Ben, what a wild story about the house! thank you for sharing that..
ReplyDeleteDespite the candles.. i am a wreck.. wish i'd sold more. : (
Ben
ReplyDeleteWith options I do prefer to use itm if possible. Then the trailing stops are not executed as quickly as when using atm or otm options.
Wait. Wait. I need to go read headlines for a quick laugh.
ReplyDeleteLove that headline about FNM and FRE maybe costing up to a Trillion. I wonder if TWSWBs still thinks these firms are "just like all the other lousy banks." What bullshit.
ReplyDelete-AT
FinReg drops tax on large institutions and ends TARP. Will use remaining TARP funds for funding FinReg. BS.
ReplyDeleteIt gets better. S&P to downgrade Moody's: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-warns-new-rules-raise-risk-for-rating-agencies-2010-06-29
ReplyDeleteS&P says new regulations may dent credit rating business
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Financial regulation finalized in recent days could make the credit-rating business riskier and less profitable. That's according to one of the leading credit rating agencies.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, owned by McGraw-Hill Cos. /quotes/comstock/13*!mhp/quotes/nls/mhp (MHP 29.39, -0.46, -1.54%) , said late Tuesday that it may downgrade the short-term credit rating of Moody's Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!mco/quotes/nls/mco (MCO 20.01, -1.24, -5.84%) , the other top rating agency.
S&P put Moody's A1 short-term rating on CreditWatch with negative implications, suggesting there's at least a 50% chance of a downgrade.
"An increased level of business risk is likely following the announcement that the Financial Reform Conference Committee has reconciled bills from the U.S. Senate and House," S&P credit analyst Emile Courtney said in statement.
HAHAHAHAHA
ReplyDeleteTime to shut down the US Federal Reserve?
Telegraph has a nice response to Kartik Athreya
Ra,
ReplyDeleteyou can't make this stuff up....that's market moving news right there
I also prefer itm option for a few reasons.
Q&A with Robert Precther@pragcap.com
ReplyDeleteNic
ReplyDeleteFavorite line of article:
"The root error of the modern academy is to pretend (and perhaps believe, which is even less forgiveable), that economics is a science and answers to Newtonian laws."
b22-
ReplyDeleteregarding the deferment-
you would factor a payment and count it against them but you wouldn't make them start paying on it-
CV- intra-day- there was a sub 1040 when I took a quick peek at the market around 3:30 or so-
when I came back from lunch it was above 1040-
appears to be the line in the sand- for now
Nic-
ReplyDeleteone has to wonder about the savviness (is that a word?) of someone denigrating bloggers-
unless he is looking for his 15 minutes-
It's like trying to pick a fight w/ Howard Stern-
the dude has a mic and will crucify you day in day out-
the dude obviously has his head up his ass and believes he is smarter than anyone else-
as if economics theory is "carved in stone"- if you do A then B will result- no exceptions-
the whole field is open to different interpretations
ahab,
ReplyDeletethanks, goes against what I was told today somewhat but in the end they still didn't get the loan.
the last POS I recall blasting bloggers for their lack of intelligence, proper interpretation of data, etc..... was CNBC.
ReplyDeleteb22-
ReplyDeletestudent loans can many times ruin your credit- how it happens is you make one payment for the balance of the outstanding loans- but all the loans are listed separately on your credit report for each quarter or semester you took out a loan-
so one late payment- shows up as late for each student loan listed on your credit report
doesn't look pretty- definitely affects the FICO score-
also- I can't tell you how many people I have met through the years that I could barely get approved due to "heavy" student loan payments
RR's PTI turned bearish today.
ReplyDelete@Nic.
ReplyDeleteThe Telegraph article was great. Can't believe that idiot at the Richmond Fed....
the argentina/germany match on saturday should be really good
ReplyDelete. . .and good thing I had awesome bartending skills to pay my tuition and get me through college(-:!!!
ReplyDeletestudent loans however- people justify them by the imagined job prospects-
not always the case-
higher learning does not necessarily mean higher earning-
but I guess was can look at this way- in the past- post high school education was the path of the most wealthy and connected- where the cost of tuition was not an issue-
now they shovel you full of loans for the dream of a successful future-
maybe- when everyone in the country gets a college education- there will be lawyering and doctoring jobs for everyone
Homebuyer tax credit closing extension passed in the House.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/house-passes-homebuyer-tax-credit.html
manny-
ReplyDeletedude- I just had a closing today where the borrower had to eat $900 because of a low appraisal- a short sale- which needed the bank's approval to lower the price (not just the seller's)- way too much red tape-
the way I explained it to him was- you can wait for the bank that holds the mortgage to sign off on a lower sale price (which may not even happen) to save $900-
but- if it I happens after June 30- it will cost you $8000-
the dude closed
manny-
ReplyDeletefrom CNBC-
Critics say the three-month extension is an invitation for fraud, providing prospective home buyers time to back date contracts to a date before April 30 and subsequently closing on those contracts by the new September 30 deadline.
absolute lock that would happen- the government kills me- setting up a situation where it is so easy to abuse- that it's guaranteed-
but maybe they don't really give a shit
@ Jeff, where do those extensions end? EXTEND AND PRETEND.
ReplyDeleteWhat exactly do they do in Washington? Print money thats about it.
@Amen
ReplyDelete"ECB LTRO isn't until 7/1"
That about says it right there... After they call Katherine, they better call down to South Africa to see if any of the teams out of the tournament have any spare canisters of that "magic spray"...
@Nic (6:27)
ReplyDeleteBetter get crackin' sister :-)
CV
ReplyDeleteI know they will TRY to get a squeeze going tomorrow but because of the ECB LTRO I believe shorts will be happy to sit tight.
I still love this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOVXh4xM-Ww
I could hardly hear the market plunge today amidst you guys blowing the vuvuzelas. Please maintain some decorum.
ReplyDeleteMr. Market had me totally f*cked today. Not a clue what was going on. mcHAPPY thinks he has a handle right now, here goes:
ReplyDeleteWithin minor 3 of Intermediate 1, minute 1 is over.
From my perspective, we just had a fifth wave extension within minute 1 to end the start of minor 3.
Essentially minute 1 consisted of:
i = 1131.23-1108.24
ii = 1108.24-1118.50
iii= 1118.50-1085.31
iv = 1085.31-1099.64
v = 1099.64-1035.18
v is where the fun was, and within in this extension we had:
(i) 1099.64-1088.05
(ii) 1088.05-1095.52
(iii) 1095.52-1074.63
(iv) 1074.63-1085.95
(v) 1085.95-1035.18
Within (v):
1 = 1085.95-1067.89
2 = 1067.89-1083.56
3 = 1083.56-1042.52
4 = 1042.52-1051.37
5 = 1051.37-1035.18
A break of 1035.18 tomorrow will make this invalid. However, if it is correct we can expect a bounce back to 1080, from EWP pg. 68: "... our observations of market behavior is that when the fifth wave of an advance is an extenstion, the ensuing correction will be sharp and find support at the level of the low of wave two of the extension. Somtiemes the corrections ends there... and sometimes only wave A ends there. Although a limited number of real lfie exmaples exist, the precision with which A waves have reversed at this level is remarkable....."
Later in the section: "Additional value is provided by the fact that fifth wave extensions are typically followed by swift retracements. Their occurrence, then, is an advance warning of a dramatic reversal to a specific level, a powerful combination of knowledge. This guildeline need not apply when the market is ending a fifth wave at more than one degree, yet (reference figures in book)... we should still view this level as at least potential or temporary support."
AmenRa @ 7:34
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteShorts are sitting VERY tight... (and happy - I imagine - at the moment)...
I know I am...
@Amen
ReplyDeleteIn fact... I'd say shorts are even HAPPIER at seeing 'rips' as we speak...
Keep the booty coming...
Meanwhile... The most amusing thing in this whole process is to watch the Obama-Summers-Geithner-Bernanke "tap dance"...
ReplyDeletePretty soon it's going to feel like one of those westerns where the old drunk cowboys in the bar are shooting bullets at their feet and yelling...
"Dance faster... FASTER I SAY"...
@mcHappy
ReplyDeleteThat's a lot of work there BIG GUY...
For your sake (just for yours - not mine)... I hope we don't break 1035.18... (fingers crossed behind CV's back)...
How's the kiddo? :-)
EWI has been leaving the labels missing after i and ii from the 1131.23 to 1108.24then back to 1118.50.
ReplyDeleteBased on wave 1 being 22.99 x 2.618 = 60.19.
wave v = 1099.64-1035.18 = 64.46.
I would have to say that bears/shorts will be happy in a few days but the next couple could be painful.
Some fibo's with 1035.18 being the end and 1131.23 being the start (96.05 total points)
.382 = 1071.87
.5 = 1083.21
.618 = 1094.54
.786 = 1110.68
A break of 1108.24 would confirm minute 1 ended.
A break of 1131.23 would confirm my admission to local psychiatric ward.
@mcHappy
ReplyDeleteBut looking at ASIA so far overnight...
I think the PPT "team" is going to need some serious "MAGIC SPRAY" to prevent that from happening...
CV
ReplyDeletequote: "Pretty soon it's going to feel like one of those westerns where the old drunk cowboys in the bar are shooting bullets at their feet and yelling...
"Dance faster... FASTER I SAY"..."
Until the cowboys get tired and say "Get a rope."
@mcHappy
ReplyDeleteAll CV can say is that astronaut/captain JIM LOVELL would have LOVED to have you as a crew member on Apollo XIII!
Seriously!
Hasn't the Shanghai Composite been leading the way for the SPX? Anyone ever throw a rock over a cliff and never hear it hit the bottom? That's the Shanghai right now.
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteKiddo is doing great.
I am 100% cash right now. Sold remaining 1/3 TZA for small loss just before that push at the close - basically almost nailed the bottom (of today, that is!).
As for breaking 1035.18 or not... the damage has already been done. Bulls are going down hard.
Hypothetically, lets work off a retrace to 1080 (not saying it will but just say):
minute 1 = 96.05
minute 2 = 1080
possible minute 3 endings:
1.618 = 924.59
2.618 = 828.54
Located right in the middle is 876.57 - almost Andy's 878 target.
A close below 2144.60 will be a monthly 3LB reversal on the Nasdaq Composite. Just saying.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteCareful there...
But the bottom line is, you're right!... Most "elected" officials require only a bit of rope (if nothing else than to give themselves enough length of it to make themselves remembered in some way)...
And I'm not talking "Annie Oakley" here...
THIS AIN'T NO PARTY... THIS AIN'T NO DISCO RODEO...
That's a reversal DOWN.
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteThe bond vigilantes are the cowboys. They just started drinking at the bar. Give it time.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteRe: THE NAZ
Funny thing is... On my HEAT indicators, for the past couple of days when new levels are being taken out to the downside... The NAZ has always been the first one flashing deep RED...
Just saying...
@Amen
ReplyDeleteCV is brewin some "moonshine" for the BV's as we speak...
@Amen
ReplyDeleteSilly to talk about "FUNNY MENTALS" at this moment, but think about it...
Look dude, this is the end of Q2... Q3 is typically the beginning of the main ORDER FLOW for TECH companies... Purchasing managers are either going to do equipment orders by September 30th (because of their fiscal budgeting), or they're NOT...
If there's THIS MUCH FEAR going into Q3 (in the macro)???? (especially with the forex flux)...
Katherine...?
BR always has me laughing-
ReplyDeleteAs I have said repeatedly, I am not saying that a double dip won’t happen — I just do not see any evidence (yet) of anything other than weaker growth. 1.5-2.5% or so.
Maybe we have a double dip, maybe we don’t — but as of today, the data is not there yet.
Ask me again in 3 months, maybe you will get a different answer
after it's confirmed of course-
laugh the fuck out loud!!!
@ahab
ReplyDeleteWho knew that in all that "traveling", TWSWB has actually been polishing up his act in comedy clubs!
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=bdiy&exch=IND&x=15&y=11
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/conf.htm
....The last one..present expections was 180 in 2006. Now it is 25. Yes.......
...If incomes go down on the gulf...is that a "tax equivalent"?
..Night all. Good hunting tomorrow. And live long and prosper.
ahab,
ReplyDeletethen why bother discussing a recession at all if you aren't going to attempt to forecast one until the data is "there", it's a discussion with no value....Besides, what data? who cares about GDP, I mean after all, it's not like negative GDP is confirmation of a recession right, because I remember reading this back in the day:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/positive-gdp-re.html
The meme "Positive GDP = No Recession!" is demonstrably false, as we show in the proceeding pages.
I won't be around tomorrow, but back on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteI wish you all a great trading day!
Ahab@10.18.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I don't even know what to say any more. His statements are so hedged now, it's unreal.
-AT
@McF
ReplyDeleteIt's normal...
It's what happens when... In the process of revelry during one's 15 minutes of fame... One puts themselves (& their 'accounts') on AUTOPILOT...
Instead of "getting their fingernails dirty"... Their fingernails only get dirty by signing autographs...
It's part of the process...
b22 @ 10:33
ReplyDeletearchival footage no less! (good find)
that's some funny shit there-
BR has officially become Mr. Hedge (per AT's 10:37 post)
lol
I'm back from dinner.. but am probably incapable of catching up..
ReplyDeletewell, i'm sitting very short and in the money still and nervous as heck.
ReplyDeletei HATE bear markets.. they hurt everyone, right ben?
@karen
ReplyDeleteHere... a little HUGGY BEAR for you...
http://charlieschinderwolf.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/huggy-bear3.jpg
To soothe your nerves & your pain...
CV
Shanghai will be down over 10% weekly if it closes around 2400. Ouch.
ReplyDeleteCV, while I adore black men, I really didn't get it.
ReplyDeletethis is too much! there is actually a website: http://handsomeblackmen.tumblr.com/
ReplyDeletedidn't find what i was looking for but the idea of it is hysterical..
"i HATE bear markets.. they hurt everyone, right ben?"
ReplyDeleteno doubt Karen, we just need to do our best to move out of the way, but if we get this whole P3 thing all of us are facing something negative in one way or another, but as I've said, it's not the end of the world, just read an article about getting closer to flying cars, :-)
that said, I've decided I'm partial to bear market trading over bull markets, it's all faster, lot more thrilling, some nerves are good, too many not good, and none at all it's then we are probably most likely to lose.
CV likes bear market trading...
ReplyDeleteIt requires PATIENCE, STRATEGY, & DISCIPLINE...
I like that... (those who do their homework - might actually get rewarded)...
ben, true about the moving out of the way.. but that is not how a person makes money, just saves money.
ReplyDeletethis second guessing all the time is terribly difficult and wearing. i'm waiting/anxious for the next rule change, too.
Those who happen to be "traveling"...
ReplyDeleteWell - at least they can BLOG about it...
An observation;
ReplyDeleteThere continues to be a lot of buzz about the Canadian housing market and one of the things I continue to see mentioned are that "average incomes are such and such in VC and this condo sells for X"
it's really dangerous to start talking about average incomes like that, this was a big talking point here in the US and it always understated the problem, I think this illustrates the point, though it's about net worth and not income, same idea:
perhaps some of you have heard about the Jan Pen world population procession where people were as tall as they were rich, everyone's height is proportional to their wealth, average height would equal average wealth. The procession starts with the poorest and shortest person first and ends one hour later with the richest and tallest. Not until 20 minutes in to we even see anyone at all, until then they either had negative net worth or no wealth at all and therefore no height. It's a full 30 minutes before you see dwarfs about six inches tall. At minute 48 we see the first person of average height and average wealth, and more than 3/4 of the world's population has already passed by. Now this was written a while ago, but then Pen writes that in the last few minutes giants loom up, a lawyer, not exceptionally successful, 18 feet tall..as the hour approaches, the last people are so tall we can't see their heads, last of all said Pen, we see John Paul Getty, his height is breathtaking, perhaps 10 miles, perhaps twice as much.
averages are not necessarily anywhere near the middle or representative of what's typical.
"but that is not how a person makes money, just saves money."
ReplyDeleteindeed, I was always sort of partial to the subtitle of Prechters Conquer the Crash; mainly the "and prosper" part.
@karen
ReplyDeleteIf I can be so bold as to make an observation...
You (to me - since I've communicated with you)... seem abundantly "news driven"...
Which is a good thing (in a lot of ways)...
But in the WARPED world of what a P3 might usher in... I think someone needs to have the capacity to cultivate a sense of "counter intuitiveness"...
Mostly, TO ME, that means that NEWS FLOW must be ignored at all costs (or else - "anticipated")...
Let me make an example...
Do I think QE2 is coming? Answer: YES
When? Answer: I don't know
Will it have an effect on the markets? Answer: YES, but only fleeting...
For the rest, I stay bounded...
@McF
ReplyDeleteHmmm...
I wonder if JAN PEN did any studies on HORIZONTAL measurements in the way the VERTICAL ones were done...
thinking someone in our group does so throwing this out there
ReplyDeleteanyone around here familiar with functional MRI's?
lol C! suppose today that might be more fitting
ReplyDeleteand/or "inverse ratios" thereof
ReplyDeleteChet! you are so wrong about me! I am chart driven!
ReplyDeleteUK 1Q GDP delayed until 7/12/10
ReplyDelete-or-
It's so bad we have to massage some numbers or our markets will be decimated.
@ Ra, 12.04
ReplyDeleteShanghai down almost 25% for the year. Now THAT is a Bear market.
Prashant
yeah short China long the US dollar going into this year...money trades.
ReplyDeleteECB 3 month funding set for 10:15 (their time) so the market dislocation will happen while the US sleeps peacefully (dreaming of American Idle).
ReplyDelete@karen (12:43)
ReplyDeleteIN CASE OF FAILURE - BREAK GLASS
CV hereby defaults to this comment:
---
CV said...
@Amen
That's what I meant... You know me, I always get my "terminology" wrong...
Good thing I don't manage OTHER peoples money...
OR am "married" for crying out loud!
---
LOL - I'm going to bed people... I want to try and get some sleep tonight - so I started an EARLY THREAD for tomorrow...
It's basic (just explains the "mood")... I'll add if and when anything changes overnignt...
Here it is...
NEW THREAD UP - G'Nite all...
Whatever!!! Chet at 12:52
ReplyDeletePrashant
ReplyDeleteShanghai had a weekly 3LB rev on 12/25/09 and started trending on 2/5/10. It's still moving lower.
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/109947/did-china-save-your-retirement?mod=fidelity-buildingwealth
ReplyDeleteYou have it all wrong AR. lol