All of this is just funny to CV... Well, really not funny, so much as sad...
Andy T wrote (in the comment section), that an incident like that which occurred yesterday exposes where the WEAK BIAS is in the system... Truer words have never been spoken...
I'm not simply talking about TRADING ALGORITHMS here, or EXCHANGES... I'm referring to our entire financial system (which - is is in the throes of trying to be guided by "invisible forces" that they call PPT's, and QE's, and other things that only sophisticated IVY LEAGUERS are supposed to know about)...
They're all geniuses! Just like this guy here... (CV anticipates the same eventual conclusion to the story)...
I keep telling people in times like these - at this point in time - the flight to safety is in the USD and JPY which happen to be two most flawed currencies but it is what it is, until it isn't. I am continually amazed that people can't see the chain of events that have occurred and what is coming. Denninger is harping about it constantly, and he is right, the US will experience exactly what is happening to Greece and other European countries. Of course there is a lot of countries to implode and currencies to crash before that happens.
ReplyDeleteA trip down not so long ago memory lane:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thepanicnews.com/2010/04/28/robert-prechter-says-cash-is-king-fast-money-doesnt-believe-him-but-the-smart-money-better/
hehehehehe
McHappy,
ReplyDeletein a year or two after everyone has piled back into the dollar I'll short with two hands, that's when you really want gold.
interesting observations from ZH-
ReplyDelete"the massive 12-month rally, in my seasoned opinion, has occurred almost entirely due to program/algorithmic trading in New York. Despite the chronically low volume, prices continued to increase.. .as the indices go higher - nobody gives a damn how or why...it's all good as long as share prices increase. . if you are happy with Goldman and JP Morgan's trading desks gunning the market higher by simply trading back and forth to each other - then you better damn well be happy with the Black Swan event: a CRASH caused by the same computers."
exactly- especially this-
"as the indices go higher - nobody gives a damn how or why."
as long as they go up- all is right in the world- even if it was "trader error"- or outright manipulation
. . and an early start today CV- I like that! and after my conversation w/ B in T last night-
ReplyDeletehave a mind to do some fishing here soon enough
ahab,
ReplyDeleteI'd imagine gulf fishing trips are cheap.
. . .and is there such a thing as a "trader error" that make prices go up???
ReplyDeleteI thought not- that's just savvy trading(-:!!!
Ben,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the panic news link.
I read the comments below. This is what gets me about people who criticize Prechter and or EW: he wasn't wrong for 21 years. He was wrong 21 years ago. Maybe you can answer this for me, but do you think he has been working off the same count or assumptions as 21 years ago? I don't. It is like Lara with her DXY count, new events occur and she changes her count to reflect it. I wish people would get it that EW is not a crystal ball, it is about probabilities.
Please correct me if any of my thinking is inaccurate.
b22-
ReplyDeleteI use to fish the bay for Blues and Stripers- haven't done that in years-
usually smallmouth and brookies nowadays (and brook trout are basically uncatchable)
. . .my impression-
ReplyDeletePrechter is the calm in the center of the storm- he keeps a cool head because he is confident of his methodology-
dude is also very smart- obviously
ahab,
ReplyDeleteI grew up on lake erie, we did a lot of perch and walleye, trout out of the streams, steelhead, and bass in the ponds. Can't really eat the fish in DE, but Maryland has some nice spots as does central PA if you are into fly fishing, we fished a lot in college up there.
@McHappy,
perhaps in 1,000 years people will widely understand and accept EW. This time though, I can already see how it's going to be called when it's over.....manipulation, etc, certainly not that the waves pointed to it.
As for RP, he has used the same huge count for a very long time now, I don't know exactly how long, and even at larger degree, you know, the 2007 top, obviously it took him time to label it an expanded flat, but the count at smaller degree, he changes all the time, I mean pretty much every letter.
Wrong for 21 years?, if P3 happens none of that matters. You could just as easily say he's been deadly correct for a decade now?
So the question remains, wrong at which degree of trend?
Jim Rogers-
ReplyDelete"You never have enough shorts when things collapse," he said. "I think people should be looking for shorts or defensive positions because we're going to have problems for a while, at least in my view."
I have been thinking about buying a consumer staple like P&G as my defensive position(-:!!!
he goes on to say-
"As I've been saying to you all before, 2010 and 2011 are going to be years of currency turmoil not just in Europe but all over the world and Greece is bankrupt," he said.
"We can paper it over for a while, just as we papered over some of the problems in the US and the UK but the problems are going to come back"
no doubt
@ahab
ReplyDelete"is there such a thing as a "trader error" that make prices go up???"
Yeah ahab - it's called "no volume" HFT using free money funnelled to banks from taxpayers...
CV @ 7:55-
ReplyDeleteexactly!
and if someone did screw up- and hit a billion buy order-
guess what- the stock price improves!!!!
savvy trading indeed-
where is the goddam investigation
. . .and I have to agree w/ b22-
ReplyDeleteI like the crew of folks here- many excellent thoughts and observations-
and of course- a bit of fun and hijinks(-:!!!
I can't believe the DXY touched 85.145 so soon and the markets and commodities are still extremely elevated.
ReplyDeleteI will be looking for this over the next few days: lower markets with falling (correcting/wave 2) DXY. If this happens I think we can expect an October 2008 occurence where S&P and DXY fell together for a short while until the DXY went parabolic and the S&P went for a cliff dive. Of course this idea is probably nonsense because CO and BB would never let this happen.
. . .and everyone needs to relax-
ReplyDelete"Obama briefed on Greece and Wall Street turbulence"
see- it's all under control!
Strategists say investors should avoid a fire sale, caution on euro weakness
ReplyDeleteahab, oh yes, they were hyping that on the soap opera network
ReplyDeleteTiny tim, BB, and Obama are on a conference call right now!
I was laughing, these guys couldn't even see the housing bubble, what the hell do they know about HFT....oh right, I get it, the math for the housing bubble was too SIMPLE right?
@ahab
ReplyDeleteAnd you have to understand that I'm not SINGLING YOU OUT (from yesterday)... Perhaps I was "shooting the messenger"
To further beat a dead horse...
Re: TWSSICWB - who's now a big hero...
OK, riddle me this...
If it was all a "fat finger" trade, no worries, go back to your daily routines people... Then, logically, the markets should RECOVER right...
Hell, we're probably already on our ways to new highs as we speak right? [I'm snarking here]...
But let's say, "technically", that we cover some ground back (back towards 1219.80 - which was the most recent top)...
A "home gamer" could do this...
- a 61.8% retrace would put us back at 1162
- a 78.6% retrace would take us up to 1184
In either case, it would dull the notion that TWSSICWB made such a great move after all...
The "timing" was fortunate...
IOW - it was a great BLOG CALL, but in the grand scheme of things, how was it any different from Prechter saying to go 200% short at the January levels of 1150?
Prechter, theoretically, made money, then lost it back to even, then was down for awhile, and is now green again...
TWSSICWB (from 1150 - Prechters level), stayed in positions... I heard no "go short" call (at 1200+ like I did from Andy T)... Instead, all I heard from TWSSICWB was a "go to cash" call (when the market had already GIVEN UP the ground from 1220-1165...
1 friggin percent (the difference between 1150 and 1165)... WHEREAS - If Prechter was DOUBLE SHORT at 1150... after the close yesterday he was UP 4%...
How come no praise for Prechter here?
To add to that, as I stated yesterday... Someone who has been LONG for the entire time here was CLEARLY being IRRESPONSIBLE (as the market wipeout exposed the RISKS that were undoubtedly in the system)...
So I remain...
Great blogging call... Questionable risk appetite...
exactly C, exactly....
ReplyDeletebut it's all good, one of the reasons it's all so likely is because nobody is really seeing it.
or you could believe like many internet trolls that since Prechter didn't call the Jan top, call the Feb bottom and then the april top, he's somehow wrong....cause you know, that's the goal in the market right, to hit every single turn.
and lets not forget, from BR's own mouth:
ReplyDelete"you have to question Prechter, yes he finally got the crash he was looking for (referring to 2008, which is a wrong assumption anyway of what he's "looking for") but he missed the bull market in the 90's"
said in a tone like.....why do I even care about this guy?
CV-
ReplyDeleteall I know- only a few short weeks ago we had the infamous "buy what you hate" call- you know- Shitigroup- the big C-
now BR has backtracked on that a bit and said he should have called it "trade what you hate" call(-:!!!
Sad day for Germany.
ReplyDeleteI find it disgusting, actually revolting, that German politicians would use the guilt of WW2 and the pressure of "EU will collapse" without our help to pass this legislation TO SAVE THE BANKS. This is not about Greece or its citizens. This is about the banks losing money!
The only good thing to come out of this is they have blown their political capital - much like US government - and during the next crisis (take your pick in Europe, Spain or Portugal most likely) the crooked politicians will be figuratively handcuffed to do nothing - which is what they should be doing now.
When do people learn throwing good money after bad is not going to fix the problem? IOW, YOU DON'T SOLVE A DEBT PROBLEM WITH MORE DEBT.
@ahab
ReplyDeleteI mean hell...
Even MANNWICH bought TLT at 89 (and watched it go to 100 yesterday)... Mannwich is up 12%! He should be a hero...
LB is making a killing in long bonds, where's HIS praise?
MCF... Is in the Prechter camp (so is yours truly)... I even managed to dump some SDS yesterday down with a 1072 handle...
DL... He's been trading the e-minis... and although he's often on the opposite side of the general current on this blog... He's made some timely trades...
I could name you a dozen bloggers ON THIS SITE who have "pre-published" calls that netted better results than TWSSICWB...
CV-
ReplyDeletec'mon man- are under the impression I have Bromantic feelings for BR?
I give him more shit than anyone-
anyway- gotta roll out for a bit to handle something-
will check in a bit later
CV,
ReplyDeleteI've been holding FXP and FAZ since April 16 and will continue to do so until we get a daily trend change from Ra. Also, if we close under the weekly soon I might start trading on a weekly basis. I know from my past history, trying to time changes is a recipe for regret. Have a method, have discipline to follow it, be willing to accept losses, be willing to accept HUGE gains.
@McHappy
ReplyDeleteI'm not dispensing trading advice here, but, with the 2x & 3x etfs, after a big move day, you have to think about booking profits (especially on the BEARISH ETF's)...
I mean, think of it this way... Let's say you bought SDS yesterday at 1150... For fun and games, let's say the market wiped out 5%, then recovered back...
If the wipeout was all in one day, and the recovery took several days, by the time it's back at 1150 (your entry point), you're losing money, not breaking even...
See, BB is in control.
ReplyDelete<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8666860.stm>ze Chermans</a> haf approved ze bailout
ReplyDeleteExcuse me... ze Chermans haf approved ze bailout
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteFair enough. The flip side is booking profits and losing out on potentially huge rewards. After my experiences with oil I can handle losses, it won't kill me. I've lost big, I think I can win big. We'll see. Luckily I'm only 31 if I'm wrong.
We all agree this ship is going down. I'm not going to get caught up over intra-day swings given the final destination as long as the trend remains down.
I entered fAZ just under 12 and it got to 11.01. It has reached to 15.97. I entered FXP at 38.60. I believe it will be 2-3 times above what I paid by the summer. By the end of the year I'm thinking it will be parabolic. I've laid it out here for you all. No probablies or might buy around here or there (although if TZA had got to $5.60 I was prepared to add a little on margin).
IMO this is what we have waited for. I'm going to enjoy the show as long as the charts and tape keep pointing down.
Sorry, I entered the buy order until 12 on FAZ. The purchase price was 12.08.
ReplyDeleteSorry again, ...UNDER 12....
ReplyDelete@McHappy
ReplyDeleteAs CV has basically "opined" from the beginning...
If P3 is really real... Everyone is wasting their time blogging here or trying to trade the markets...
You all ought to be looking for acerage in the country, shopping for tools and implements at Home Depot, and packaging up a few hundred pounds of food that has a decent shelf life...
You should be buying some devices that can provide a MINIMUM of energy needs (say, in the 1,000 watt range at bare minumum)... and/or getting some generators, propane storage, and gasoline...
I only have time for blogging becasue I've done most of these things... (I STILL feel "totally" unprepared)...
CV
ReplyDeleteI realize that perspective too and have thought about it. My biggest fear is my brokerage goes bankrupt or can't pay out. My family has a generator, place in the country with a woodstove, land suitable farming, access to the ocean for fishing, and a well.
Hopefully I never have to use it all in the terms you suggest but luckily my exposure to you has made me think along these lines.
I just need to buy some olive oil :P
I think in heart of hearts, most people who believe that P3 will come visiting still feel that it will not come to such a pass. All that will happen is that most money will be made shorting and when it has bottomed, one would get out, be rich and spend while the recovery happens. Not much distance has been assumed between the bottom and the recovery and the focus is still only on the financial markets not the real life.
ReplyDeleteWho knows.
Prashant
@McHappy
ReplyDelete"My family has a generator, place in the country with a woodstove, land suitable farming, access to the ocean for fishing, and a well"...
That's a good start, but until one starts engaging themselves in PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS, then you remain behind a LONG learning curve...
The average person probably thinks that they can go out to the country, toss a few seeds on the ground and it'll all work out...
Growing food isn't easy... It can take YEARS to know what works, and what doesn't (in your particular patch of earth...
- Weather
- Bugs
- Animals
- Funguses
You name it... will all conspire to make you a failure, and keep you starving...
It ain't no FARMVILLE...
@Prashant
ReplyDeleteP3 should be easy to understand...
Focus is on the "3" (as in 3RD world)...
If you could survive in a 3rd world environment, you'd be fine in P3...
The funny thing, TO ME, isn't the "survival" aspect of it (that's the EASY PART - IMO)...
The hard part is going to be the people who can't adapt "psychologically" to the change... It'll be traumatic for some... Some will adapt, some won't...
CV,
ReplyDeleteI do understand this as well. You will have to take me at my word that I do not think what you have done is 'lunacy' or 'insane' - quite contrary. Trust me, I'm not a WSWB or living in suburbia without a clue.
Back to the markets... how far do we bump today and then how far down do we finish?
good morning! guess it is safe to comment now : )
ReplyDeleteaapl down in pre-market.. funny jobs report, +188k B/D adj? vxx up premarket..
"I think in heart of hearts, most people who believe that P3 will come visiting still feel that it will not come to such a pass"
ReplyDeleteNot for me Prashant, I am dead serious when I talk about P3 and what I think will happen, in fact, after yesterday, I'm more confident than ever that shorts that come late will not be paid, shorting is going to be banned. The world as we know it in America will not be the same when this is over.
@Prashant
ReplyDeleteAnd think of it this way...
IN ANY WAY... P3 will eventually come one way or another...
There is simply not enough RESOURCE CAPACITY in the world in terms of:
- food production
- fresh water (for consumption & irrigation)
- metals
- rare earth metals (used for most technology devices)
- energy
- other important things
To be able to ECONOMICALLY SUSTAIN a planet on a WESTERN CIVILIZATION standard of living...
There is no math that could ever make it all work...
So whether it takes two years, or 100 years... Eventually, humans will all have to revert back to basics...
Even if they manage to squeeze it out for another century (or more), the chances are that there will end up being either:
- a disease pandemic
- volcanoes
- asteriod strike
- massive deep water oil gusher
- tsunami/flood/dustbowl/drought/whatever
That will wreck the balance...
The world that humans are trying to create is too complicated... The more complicated it becomes, the more likely the possibility that ONE TINY THING could reduce everything to ashes...
Those who live their lives according to a "lowest common denominator" rule will survive... Those that can't will get swept away...
It's as simple as that...
Here we go... let the pigeons loose!
ReplyDeleteA key number on SPX to focus on today would be 1095...
That would be a MONTHLY 3lb reversal...
That would be HUGE!
The month of MAY is not complete (so that 1095 number could be alive for a few weeks)...
ReplyDeleteBut going UNDER that number (and a lack of interest thereafter), could spell TROUBLE...
would bearish ETF's be banned if a ban on shorting were to occur
ReplyDeleteSo much for street unfazed and futures green!
ReplyDeleteFX is suggesting its all about to melt again
ReplyDeleteback to my top? i think so..
ReplyDeleteMcF, I understand that.
ReplyDeleteCV @ 9.25,
I tell my father that why worry about small things when the big picture is all dark. In fact, I don't use P3 but what I think about is what you just said regarding diseases, quakes, floods, changing weather patterns etc.
I would tell my wife, what is the point in having kids, when even fresh water is going to be a challenge in times to come. I mean you just can't have it that you have an increasing number of consumers who are Increasing their consumption, all at the same time.
It is just way too complex, and yes, WE have made it way too complex. And we know what happens to most complex systems.
Prashant
A P3 would also not happen overnight either. Prechter is calling for a bottom in the spring of 2016 I believe. Actually that would be the end of the C wave.
ReplyDeletehard to say, etf's use swaps, but why shouldn't just assume they would be banned along with everything else. Most brokerage houses already took steps to ban advisor solicitation of them.
ReplyDeleteall have a great day...profitable.
be back around the close.
Take this how you want but its a good source. They are printing Drachma again.
ReplyDeleteI don't have to spell out to you what that means
Prashant,
ReplyDeletelook on the bright side, the waves say India will be in a huge bull market after this....for us...that's not so clear.
Nic,
ReplyDeleteDL was just saying that the other day.
Now I really gotta go.
Action time.
CV
ReplyDeleteTell me about it. BTW there were four lower 1-min candles.
Don't forget cattle for the ole homestead.
ReplyDeleteFoghorn likes Longhorns
They some tough old bitches and don't even look sideways at their babies, they have big horns for a reason!
Have fun ya'll
Foghorn Longhorn
@McHappy @Prashant
ReplyDeleteThe thing that "amuses" me is how people tend to think of P3 as something SCARY...
I don't see it that way at all...
I've never been happier in my life than these past few years that I get my fingernails dirty and actually have figured out how to DO THINGS...
- How things work
- How to create something out of nothing (from guile & wit and available resources - and I'm not talking about the way the "Wall St." cheaters do)
At the end of the day, it gives a person a very nice sense knowing that they're enjoying what they've created... (not just transferring it around, or stealing it from someone else)...
Bruce & ahab have it right!
ReplyDeleteLET'S GO FISHING!
Nic - what are you looking at that says "it's going to melt" again?
ReplyDeleteMcF,
ReplyDeleteI don't know about that, I see the darker side better. Too many people wanting too many things. You just can't have it. Too much poverty among the general population. Even in 2008, on the first signs of trouble you cd see corporate honchos shit in their pants. Things I feel are never the way they seem. Maybe we will get a Bull market, but the end is not going to be great.
Prashant
anyone buying faz here????
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteI don't know if it will be all that fun.
The guy that wrote
this book
also wrote
a blog about life in Argentina after the crisis here
Interesting stuff. LB needs to get to the arugula farm.
Spoonie I am looking at dollar yen which reflects bond yields
ReplyDeleteWow, 64 comments already. Well, that dead cat bounce was short-lived. I thought the NFP number was a good one? ;-)
ReplyDelete188k made up new jobs. LOL.
WALL STREET PANIC VANQUISHED: MarketWatch
ReplyDelete"At the end of the day, it gives a person a very nice sense knowing that they're enjoying what they've created... (not just transferring it around, or stealing it from someone else)... "
ReplyDeleteSpot on. You cannot have an economy that does not produce anything of VALUE. The financial sector is only valuable when LENDING to those who are PRODUCTIVE not running money between markets, currencies, or commodities. This only benefits a select few.
@cv: "Even Mannwich?!?" Gee, thanks for the back-handed compliment. LOL.
ReplyDeleteCan't remember if I linked this one here or not. If did, sorry.
ReplyDelete@Nic
You might appreciate this one as it pertains to the JPY.
YEN POWER!
wow-
ReplyDeleteI tell you what-
my dad is 80 this year and have been spending the last two weeks cleaning out his basement- lest I have to do it under more trying times-
what a show! so much junk- you can barely give a way a tube TV!!!
all the junk people collect over the years- unbelievable-
and trust almost everything is 100% junk-
as I tell my kids- the only thing better than getting something- is getting rid of it-
that's why I keep my life lean
Those algos must be having a steel cage death match in the virtual arena - SPARTACUS style. It is gory but definitely entertaining.
ReplyDeleteI keep clicking refresh at work and we get 101, 83, 33, 48, 74, etc. It is all over the place. And all figures are minus as of now.
@ahab: My Dad had the same issue with our old basement. Kept way too much crap that nobody would ever use again (my old baseball cleats!?!?), but thankfully they moved to FL last year before they got too old and were able to clean everything out on their own in the process before moving. Now I have been exempted from that task. It's a sign of the times he grew up in though. People were frugal and kept everything. Another way of not accumulating junk is to simply not buy shit. Works quite well.
ReplyDeleteMarketWatch has changed page to:
ReplyDeleteORDERLY RETREAT FOR A CHANGE
I don't call this orderly - this has been 45 minutes of schizophrenia (sp?).
forexlive had a post about CB bid on the yen under 91.80, but I see it trading around 91.50 now. Is that right? Is that bad? I'm a total novice here...BTW, Nic, thanks for forexlive.com - that place is great and I'm trying to learn.
ReplyDeleteCool McHappy, thx
ReplyDeleteSpoonie
ReplyDeleteThey often threaten to put a bid their but like the Swiss they hope that the threat is enough. Momentum often defeats them. It just means to watch for bumps and USE STOPS!
Well, glad to see the web site didn't crash. I fired up my tin can and string, and logged right on.
ReplyDeleteAhab: I'll be fishing Sunday. Someone mentioned the coast..I've been to the Mississippi coast and of course the coast of the Florida panhandle. Everyone goes to Destin, Pensacola Beach, or Biloxi for short 4 day vacations in the south. If the oil spill isn't contained, not only will the sportfishing industry and the shrimpers get whacked, but also the hotels, casinos, cafes, everything...
"Another way of not accumulating junk is to simply not buy shit. Works quite well."
ReplyDeletethat's my motto-
sporting goods get a pass- skateboards, fishing gear, surfboards, climbing gear, bikes, snowboards-
got plenty of that stuff(-:!!!
Haha, thanks. I'm not trading forex. I also don't ride on the wings of airplanes...Macro matters at the moment, though, so I want to know what's going on.
ReplyDelete"Well, glad to see the web site didn't crash. I fired up my tin can and string, and logged right on.'
ReplyDeletelol
And I do(use stops)
ReplyDeletenic -
ReplyDeletebelieve this is the ferfal blog you intended to link SURVIVING IN ARGENTINA
I was actually rooting for a rally to get short. Wondering if I'll get that chance again here.
ReplyDeleteB in T-
ReplyDeleteI stopped fishing the bay a while ago- it always hit as being more hassle than it was worth- and very expensive-
first the charter and then tipping the first mate- by the time you get off the boat you dropped money large-
and it just has the feeling of "the great White Hunter" tooling around in his land rover looking for a lion to shoot
I wonder if Steve Barry still has, and added to, his QID?
ReplyDeleteYes thanks 72Bat that was the one
ReplyDeleteActually, Ahab, I just hope there are still plenty of oysters in the half shell to carry me through the year. I am not sure I could function if I had to cold turkey them...
ReplyDeletemy top, my top.. attention now!
ReplyDeleteThere it goes karen!
ReplyDeletenew lows for crude coming up
ReplyDeleteMore "fat fingers" today? Or just margin calls? Or panicked J6P getting out?
ReplyDeleteI could have been in the scene from Cool Hand Luke, and George Kennedy says," My boy, Bruce, says he can eat 50 oysters!"
ReplyDelete...It would be the easiest money I ever made...
manny-
ReplyDeleteSB is still way underwater- assuming he still holds his QID-
he usually pops up at TBP when the market is heading south-
dude was all in on the credit implosion- little did he realize that BB and the Fed would throw in all resources to protect asset prices-
however temporary it will be
Yeah, this sure is a stable market to be invested in for the "long term". Sure thing. Whatever.
ReplyDeleteManny
ReplyDeleteNo one wants to hold over the weekend.
Karen, I have a question that probably only you or Leftback can answer...If you top is breached...are you then topless?
ReplyDelete....just wondering...
@ahab: That's right. Must have been painful. Hopefully he had some bullets left to short recently.
ReplyDeleteTop back on.
ReplyDelete@Amen: Good point. That's a switch now, isn't it? It used to be "nobody wanted to be short going into the weekend". The shorts are puffing out their chests now.
ReplyDeleteA "Flash Crash": a crash caused by the revealing of Karen's top
ReplyDeleteSchwab very slow again. Still not working well for me.
ReplyDeleteB in T-
ReplyDeleteoysters and an ice cold beer-
now that's heaven-
best oysters I ever had were in SF- they were from Vancouver-
quite small- but unbelievable!!- I can barely tolerate the ones I get in Hatteras anymore-
although- I had some clams on the half shell down in Okracoke that were awesome
Curious. Yesterdays selloff really kicked in when the SPX closed below the 3.82% at 1121.33. Just sayin'.
ReplyDeleteApproaching that again (1085.05). If that gets hit then watch out.
it appears that people can't unload there stock fast enough-
ReplyDeletesell in May indeed-
the day is still young though
edit- "their stock fast enough"
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteI really have the 1042 level in full sight now...
Especially if it struggles to get over 1110...
Not TODAY, mind you... but within a few weeks...
manny -
ReplyDeleteschwab.com ditto for me
Best I ever had was at Baricevs in Biloxi (and I lived in New Orleans two years while at LSU and we hit every shack on Lake Ponchatrain)...
ReplyDeleteSaltine, horseradish, little salt, hot sauce...cold Mexican beer...I think I better stop now before I hop in the car...
Gonna see Iron Man II tonight after Mexican food and a pitcher of margaritas....time to get reaquainted with my chain saw now....
Later...
it's all under control people-
ReplyDelete"US Regulators Look to Soothe Stock Markets' Raw Nerves . . .the SEC held urgent discussions Friday, a day after a plunge of nearly 1,000 points in the Dow"
Whew! I was worried there for a moment- but now that they have their best men on it I can relax(-:!!!!
I tell you this and use me as any indicator you want.. if i'm scared, with the money i play with in this market.. there are other monied/sophisticated players that are also scared.. trying to trade with/against these computer programs hasn't been exactly win-win.
ReplyDelete. . .and this is for Karen-
ReplyDelete"Heated pools, ocean views and media rooms are not what most people would expect to find in a foreclosed property, but more high-end homes—priced over a million dollars—have been falling into the hands of banks this year."
Karen
ReplyDeleteI haven't felt the way I feel today since September 08. I know what you mean
Has anyone looked at European markets today?
ReplyDeleteThey are in lock-step with US ones McHappy
ReplyDeletewell mchappy-
ReplyDeleteit appears they are getting crushed(-:!!!
manny -
ReplyDeletehave you used/tried pulling up streetsmart.schwab.com? seems to be working for me. for now.
BnT -
for me, the best were the first oysters i ever had, at a little shack on the marina in pass christian ca. 1970 probably blown away since. just sampled oysters all along the west coast of ireland this last week. don't hold a candle to oysters u.s.a - west coast/east coast/gulf coast
darn, i can't get that ZH panic in the pits to play.
ReplyDelete@72: My streetsmart has been fine. It's my retirement accounts on the internet to which I can't gain access.
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeletePC: Right click to download it and use a mp3 player to listen.
Mac: click the link.
Sell the lie...
ReplyDeleteoh, man! did you see that dow move! do people want out or what! when it gets jumpy like this, i get jumpy.. wily nily.. no rhyme or reason for these valuations.. it's all worth zero!
ReplyDeleteYou think that DJIA move was big, look at the one in EURUSD...
ReplyDeleteTalk about wanting OUT...
Kind of reminds me of that scene in "A Few Good Men"... Where Tom Cruise says to Demi Moore...
ReplyDelete"Better face it, we're going to lose, and we're going to lose, HUGE!"
very good article-
ReplyDeleteEuro Will Collapse Like Tower of Babel: Economist
I like this observation-
"[Bernanke]has identified debt liquidation as the mechanism that drove a downward spiral in world economic activity eighty years ago,” Lewis said. “This is why he has been so anxious to limit any fall in US private debt, while tolerant of a massive offsetting expansion in US public debt.”
exactly-
and this-
"It must be obvious to Greek citizens that its terms pay scant regard to their future prosperity, which is being sacrificed in an increasingly forlorn hope of preserving a stable currency for the use of citizens in other member-states."
it amazes me that creditors are protected at all costs worldwide-
and I don't see the Greek people accepting austerity so they can remain part of the EU
I have been so preoccupied this morning, i completely forgot to check email!!
ReplyDeleteI mean really- the whole "protection" of debt and creditors- it just amazes me-
ReplyDeletehow long can that last??? Everyone just walking around knowing but not acknowledging the simple thing that must be done-
credit implosion!
Hey guys I am taking the afternoon off in favour of fresh air and exercise (not napping).
ReplyDeleteToo much chop and slop for me, catch you at the close.
i hope they just shut those computer algos down.. really. this is nucking futs.
ReplyDeletedebt jubilee...
ReplyDeleteThat's when ALL SYSTEMS collapse...
Do you think the people who bring food to markets are going to continue to do their jobs if they're not being paid>
smart nic! i need to keep selling everything and anything i can..
ReplyDeleteahab.. you watched that great hendry clip from yesterday or day before that cv put up.. how long can it last? beats me.
@karen
ReplyDeleteThe wedge we're in right now is getting tighter and tighter...
It will expire around 3PM...
We'll know before then which way it's going to break...
I am heading outdoors myself- beautiful day-
ReplyDeleteCV/karen-
that is one thing that had just driven me crazy regarding this whole financial meltdown-
creditors protected at all costs- no haircuts- no losses-
I mean really- let's get real-
what a show!!!!
this is what is next for us:
ReplyDeleteGerman mutual funds suspend redemptions on liquidation panic
the gold miners will be buy of the year, I think.. they can always pay dividends in gold!
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteIt'll cost them all their gold to pay for energy costs to mine and produce the bars (after the whole supply chain collapses)...
CV has gotten his AQUAPONIC "Tilapia Farm" up and running in just 3 days!
ReplyDeleteWell, almost... I'm putting the finishing touches on now... :-)
Haha before I go:
ReplyDeleteJim Cramer “Is Steering You Down The Path Of Ruin” http://bit.ly/bIrpzT
who of sound mind would be buying jnk today?!
ReplyDeleteRef earlier question re European stocks - Europe are holding onto their losses, losses only developed since the US open and US bouncing much better.
ReplyDelete@karen (12:07)
ReplyDeleteall those taking profits and BUYING to cover...
@karen: The same people who've bought worthless trash stocks like AIG over the past 13 months?
ReplyDeletespy just made a huge move on the 10 min candle.. on no volume.. weird!!!
ReplyDeleteSeeing those 5000 blocks of SPY start to come in heavy...
ReplyDeleteUh oh...
ReplyDeleteWe might be setting up a big drop here...
25000 block...
ReplyDeleteWow. All over the place today.
ReplyDeleteMannwich @ 12:29
ReplyDeleteBetter than being bored, right?
Silver big breakout
ReplyDeleteDefinitely, DL. Very interesting.
ReplyDeleteCME Group has issued a statement following rumors that erroneous or irregular trades by Citigroup Global Markets Inc may have been the cause for a more than 900 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average during mid-day trading on Thursday:
ReplyDelete“While our policy is not to comment on individual participation in our markets, in light of volatile market conditions, CME Group confirmed that activity by Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in CME Group stock index futures markets does not appear to be irregular or unusual in light of market activity today.”
This person is an idiot:
ReplyDeleteTime to Buy, Buy, Buy: Look to GE, McDonalds, Wal-Mart, etc. (WMT, MCD, GE, TTWO, VXX)
Posted May 7th, 2010 by Steve Reeves in Financial News
The market drops 1,000 points because some clown keyed in the wrong trade. You've got to be fucking kidding me.
Fellow Masters, make no mistake, this is an all out buying opportunity. Go for the best of the best, little risk, but also include some protection and a wild card. We give you the...
BUY, BUY, BUY 2010 Trading Mistake Index which includes such players as Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), McDonalds (NYSE:MCD), and General Electric (NYSE:GE) -- but wait, there's more!
Take on Take-Two (NASDAQ:TTWO) for a possible short squeeze and of course the VXX, that is the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F (Public, NYSE:VXX) for balance.
Those lovely tickers for your cut & paste enjoyment: WMT, MCD, TTWO, VXX, GE
There's just too much going on this morning to type any longer, get to buying the end.
http://www.thestockmasters.com/buy-ge-wmt-05072010
Karen @ 12:43
ReplyDeleteAll the money managers on CNBC are saying "buy, buy, buy".
But what else is new?
aapl got to 225 today, DL.. did you buy?
ReplyDeletegoog under $500! a screaming buy, right?
ReplyDeleteSPX seems to be settling around 1120, with a range of +/- 10 points. If we ignore yesterday's 15 minute swan dive (and this morning's probe of the upper 1090's), there has effectively been a 9% correction.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if this level will hold for a while and -- I know this seems ridiculous -- offer another "dip-buying" entry point for bulls once the edginess passes (just as it passed in February). It is hard to deny that there was serious support at 1066 yesterday -- the index popped right back to ~1020 in minutes.
STL
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI said it's a buy at $210.
Although it's probably O.K. @ $225.
I think we'll see more selling next week.
I may do a little buying then.
GOOG under $500
ReplyDeleteThat looks like a GOOD BUY...
Oh wait, I misspelled that...
It looks like a GOODBYE!
This fucker's going DOWN...
ReplyDeleteHAHAHA, we'll see how serious 1065 is next time. until then.. the emperor has been revealed.
ReplyDelete@anonSTL
ReplyDeleteI'm going with a different take on that...
A selloff as maniacal as yesterdays means SOMETHING BELOW needs to be confirmed to right the ship...
Since 1044, there has only ben ONE big volume up move...
That was when the market "gapped up" around 1130 back in February... That was a 13:1 day and was thus, a "line in the sand"
The fact that that was taken out WITH EASE, and we've basically stayed under that (w\except for a few short minutes)... should cause some concern...
I'd be cautious of buying ANYTHING until I saw a huge UP day with a lot of volume and breadth...
JMO
Not interested in buying. Just want to avoid getting caught in a potentially risky short position. I agree with the sentiment -- this fucker is going DOWN -- but will it be now (in May) or months from now.
ReplyDelete"The trend is broken" argument didn't hold for bears in February...despite the certainty at the time.
Just talking out loud. Feel free to ignore me.
STL
all the dip buying talk is interesting in light of yesterday, and I find it hard to identify "serious support" nobody even really knows what the hell happened yesterday, indeed I think the algo's showed that no support is that serious.
ReplyDeleteas has been said before, people will buy dips msot of the way down in P3.
PG looks safe right?
How much money is required to push the SPX 55 points?
ReplyDeleteSTL
some interesting posts at http://www.tradersnarrative.com/
ReplyDeleteSTL,
ReplyDeletevirtually none at all. only one buyer and one seller agreeing former values are too high and if there are no competing bids then everyone else in it loses.
All that most people in PG had to do yesterday was nothing at all.
My view right now (FWIW) is that we won't see the S&P500 cash index CLOSE below 1075 any time during the next several months (intraday pricing is a separate question).
ReplyDelete"German mutual funds suspend redemptions on liquidation panic"
ReplyDeleteThat's very much what would be expected in a P3, and if they do it may actually exacerbate the panic. This is why peep should have used the bear market rally to extract every last DRACHMA....
Europe is going through the banking crisis now that we experienced in 2008. That's what generated the fear in credit markets.
I could see doing a bit of HY in anticipation of a squeeze, but if we did it would be small and for a trade only.
Well one this is FOR SURE (or about to be sure in 2 hours and 40 minutes)...
ReplyDeleteWe'll have a REVERSAL on the weekly 3lb on SPX cash...
That means it will be trending DOWN...
Anon @ 1:10
ReplyDeleteSupposedly the market cap of the NYSE is 15 trillion.
* * * * * * *
Founded in 1792 amid...
...About 3,000 companies, both domestic and foreign, are listed on the NYSE. These companies have a combined market capitalization of $15 trillion.
http://www.answers.com/topic/new-york-stock-exchange-economics
TLT hit 100 yesterday and made a lower high of 98, we would be sellers to raise cash today, with bailout talk in the air and an auction up ahead next week.
ReplyDeleteAgain, this is a trade only, a short-term reversal of our strategy. Lots of people will be selling USTs, volatility and yen next week, unless TSHTF and this is truly TEOTWAWKI.
Not that I have a clue as to what happened yesterday...but it seems that there were algo buy signals set up at 1066 and those signals fired all the way to 1120. Maybe that is the wrong interpretation but if correct, it tells me there is SUPPORT.
ReplyDeleteMaybe there will be no "dip-buying" but, to me, an imminent rollover seems unlikely.
Over and out.
STL
mcHAPPY is going with this theory for the next 2 and a half hours:
ReplyDeletegrind --> dump --> bounce --> dump
This theory is from a very scientific model called looking at European markets.
No one wants to hold long OR short this weekend.
I will be staying with my hand though.
Full disclosure:
ReplyDeleteMy 12:55 wasnt directed at your remark STL... just tape commentary.
ah yes... THE PERMANENT FLOOR!
ReplyDelete"Fortifications are a testimony to the stupidity of mankind"
General George S. Patton
What about all those ALGOS that were set at 1172? 1166? 1150? 1139? 1120? 1110? 1072?
ReplyDeleteBut those algos set at 1066...
Now THOSE are algos!
All the algo buys appear to come at gap points, once certain gaps got hit yesterday they filled them all in about two minutes and did the same on the way back up, it's not that hard to see, now there is a giant air pocket on the charts.....we'll leave it at this since nobody knows what actually happened, including the quants/algo's and HFT's.
ReplyDeleteinteresting times.....and I don't think most will see an imminent drop...if they did it would never happen
Dollar and JPY down and everything else down - except gold.
ReplyDeleteCan't wait for the next time those two bad boys spike upwards.
So financials look like they're getting the pump and lube...
ReplyDeleteNo worries, I-man. Even if it was, I can handle it. This is a community like any other...and disagreement happens. I appreciate everyone's commentary, BTW. I've learned MUCH fom this group.
ReplyDeleteSTL
"No one wants to hold long OR short this weekend."
ReplyDeleteAgreed but risk assets will see a bid on Monday UNLESS one of the European banks implodes, and I don't think we are quite there yet.
I feel like I'm getting emotional because I'm quite tempted to buy some calls right now for a trade.
ReplyDeleteSTL,
ReplyDeletelike I, not really directing toward you, I'm just as clueless about what really went down yesterday as the next guy.
McFearless,
ReplyDeleteYou can't lose more than your initial investment
"Agreed but risk assets will see a bid on Monday UNLESS one of the European banks implodes, and I don't think we are quite there yet."
ReplyDeleteTrue. But it would take one enormous bounce on Monday to change the trend. Unless there is a miracle in the next couple of hours, the weekly 3LB will be triggered.
I really think that the 1.255 level on the EUR signals the death of the EUR banks.
ReplyDeleteThis is also why JCT didn't announce QE, he knows this.
Any announcement that has been made about new swap lines with EUR or AUD? Beside the JPY, I haven't seen anything out of the CB's.
LB, Nic has an exceptionally thotful post up on her site..
ReplyDeletejust a heads up, you can get the EWT April letter for free over at the site and next week is free week over there.
ReplyDeletethe april letter is really top stuff, I'd def. suggest people check it out, P3 believer or not.
@McF
ReplyDeleteClueless, and yet NOT CLUELESS...
Surely nobody knows WHAT happened... But CV thinks it's more important to focus on the fact that IT DID happen... And if IT DID happen, then something is wrong...
And in the end, no genius will ever "fix" it... It will dismantle itself in the long run (bit by bit - or all at once)...
Karen @ 1:41
ReplyDeleteSuch economy with letters ("thotful").
@karen
ReplyDeleteWhat is Nic's site?
Sweet pony tail, Pete.
ReplyDeleteAgree entirely, the "NEW BULL MARKET" is over. Trend change and now dip buyers must be nimble to trade in between the downdrafts. Yet there will be rallies, and they may last a few weeks at a time...
ReplyDeleteMacro Man caught the mood correctly today: "Sea Change".
Pete,
ReplyDeleteGood point but two weeks ago I was reading Time magazine and they had an article about how everyone in their early 20 should load up on margin. After yesterday when my crazy low set stops got triggered I now have a $100K student loan to pay off, no job, and I owe the brokerage $35K.
@Pete Najarian
ReplyDeleteIs that foam coming out of your mouth because you're happy to see me, or did you just take a cyanide pill?
C,
ReplyDeleteyes, that's really what I meant, I'm not surprised by it, I just can't claim to know all the logistics, just what I think I see.
I'm really quite shocked at all the comments I'm reading all over today about dip buying, how P3 is still highly unlikely, etc. I really would have thought that yesterday scared more people but it seems to have scared the bears more than the bulls.....
@Pete,
ReplyDeleteTell your equally toolish brother that Robert Prechter sends a big middle finger over his way for the way he treated him on Fast Money.
Give us a date! Give us a date!
Monkeys.
@some poor 22 yo
ReplyDeletePay the brokerage first...
Obama will pay your loan... Or wait... maybe in 2012 he'll run on the platform that he will bail out everyones "margin calls"...
"Obama will pay my gas, my mortgage, and my margin calls... YIPPEE!"...
DL, if you have had enuf of my thotlessness, i can attempt to fix myself. might be tuf, tho.
ReplyDeleteCV! http://big-trading.blogspot.com/
What do you guys have against poor old Pete?
ReplyDeleteWithin about 10 minutes, this WEDGE is going to conclude...
ReplyDeleteCue up the sparklers!