Actually, looking at my count from last night, I am not liking it. The wave 2 (1095.14-1088.65) was not long enough. We could be in a 5 of wave 1 of C. This would most definitely push us up in to the nether regions of 1140's. I guess we are in wait and see mode.
DXY retracement in progress to 85 or below before another leg up. SPX to 1110 and probably 1140-1150 before another leg down. Momo Tuesday likely after BRIAN's BBQ.
Remember last Mon at Macro Man, I said:
Sell Yen Sell Treasuries Sell Volatility
Wish I traded the market as well as I make calls....
Re: F -- I think that the 3 or 4 penny difference could easily be a "throw over" and not a "higher high." Its definitely a double top if you draw your trendlines w/ a crayon. I'm not much of a wave counter, so for now F just looks lost in the no man's land between the 50 and the 200. I've never posted here but I followed you all over from the last blog and I just want to say thanks for keeping this going.
We nearly cancelled the BBQ - until that 3% rally - BRIAN was down in the fallout shelter last week avoiding clients, and I was on the phone all day long calming anxious inwestors.
I will leave you with this little nugget to remind you that whatever the equity market does is a SIDESHOW, with LIBOR rising and this action going on in corporate credit markets:
J. Crew Group Inc.'s (JCG) fiscal first-quarter earnings more than doubled as the retailer benefited from decreased markdowns and promotional selling.
The retailer's results beat its previous estimate and it also raised its guidance for the full year to earnings of $2.35 to $2.45 a share, compared with its previous view of $2.20 to $2.30. Analysts were projecting $2.34 a share.
famous last words? May 28 (Bloomberg) -- An increase in the rate banks pay for three-month dollar loans isn’t indicative “of any imminent disaster in the financial system,” Citigroup Inc. said.
“This is not the stuff that financial crises are made of,” Mark Schofield, head of interest-rate strategy at Citigroup in London, wrote in a research note yesterday. “A return to the more prudent lending patterns of the 1980s and 90s, however, should be welcomed rather than feared from the perspective of the long-term health of the financial system in our view.”
Yes, there is a lot to look at with the Ford chart but this is one I continue to keep an eye on.
Karen,
re: JCG, I wonder how many luxury shoppers are using them as an alternative of late? Looks like they are adding 15 new stores, we just got a new one in DE. They are still having losses with Madewell, not sure how big of an impact that could create if consumer spending is to slow. I see tangible book value at 5.89 on 1/31/10 and revenues increased in the last 12 months.
Ben, definitely an alternative to BG, NM, and Saks.. (as I can personally confirm!) I've been saying this since last year, I think.. Also, a hit with the twenty-somethings..
I think this dynamic with the H&S patterns is really very interesting.
We have a giant Head and Shoulders that has been forming over the last 10 years and it is very strict in how it has taken shape along with the underlying market charachteristics. We also have this one:
I'm also still pretty blown away with the fibo time relationships that continue to occur now that are nearly perfect larger cycle representations of the Great D.
Thanks for the link. Banks have been lying from day one. The fact that people are paying more attention to their shenanigans has to be driving them crazy.
He was one of the sickest attackmen I saw play this year. Definitely deserving of the Tewaaraton, the way he carried that team. I think he finished #1 in goals for all of D1. (Probably not far behind that in assists either.)
That quarterfinal game was awesome, I was really pulling for them.
While sales of existing homes shot up across most of the nation in April, they fell in the West, down 6.2 percent.
"The sales are lower because of lack of inventory on lower-priced homes," says Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors. "The California market was one of the first markets to go down sharply but also the first market to rebound."
The inventory of low-priced homes is low because of big investor demand initially and because banks are being very careful with REO (bank owned) properties, releasing them slowly onto the market so as not to tank prices.
But that's not all of it.
"We know the tax-credit has pushed low-priced houses up sharply and investors have backed away big-time in recent months, not wanting to compete with a bunch of first-timers and their Obama coupons," says mortgage analyst Mark Hanson. "Perhaps this is the end of the demand cycle from first timers and investors who have had their fill."
I saw a guy get kited into 80 ft pines last year. Weird winds on the small lakes around here. He was OK, but his friends were really working to get him down slowly. The kite wasn't so lucky.
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) has subpoenaed Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) CEO Warren Buffet after the highly regarded investment guru turned done two invitations to testify before the Committee.
The FCIC first contacted Buffett on May 12 when Wendy Edelberg, executive director of the commission, sent a letter to him saying that his views on several financial topics would be of “great value” to the group.
According to the request, the FCIC wanted to discuss the misuse of derivative investments, rating agencies and too big to fail.
Buffett turned down the request as he associated testimony before the FCIC with those who were generally implicated in the financial crisis.
The FCIC followed with another request on May 17 requesting a “private interview” with a possible hearing to follow, to which Buffet again politely declined.
The third request, a subpoena, cannot be declined by Buffet and states during his testimony questions will be focused on the credit rating agencies.
"He also comes to the conclusion that I do, that there are no easy asset allocation decisions here, and that one should diversify widely in order to preserve assets. Also, he concludes that there is no easy endgame for heavily indebted nations, and that there will be a reckoning, though whether that means inflation or deflation is impossible to tell in advance."
I used to produce segments for CBC radio/tv and Rodgers Broadcast Prods while taking classes at OCA...had three different apts in Clarence Sq....where Wellington meets Spadina...however, also lived off Fallingbrook Rd. for a year...walked the Queen E boardwalk every day...My farms in Sk., however, where I'm currently looking out for my aging mom. I'm looking forward to moving back.
- powerful enough to ski behind - doesn't draft too much (as the Potomac can get low in late summer if there's no rain - but can also handle the chop on the Chesapeake Bay (when I go crabbing this summer)
DL, I was just being silly; it was a compliment in reference to your, "Yeah, I couldn't resist. Had to sell (short) an S&P contract at the close. May 27, 2010 4:02 PM"
Sorry I-Man I don't see today as anymore than a pullback after a bigger rally and I think we have to correct higher before we can fall again. Look on it as good selling opportunities to come.
Ackman bullish on America and Citi... Hmmmm. "well capitalized balance sheet", "powerful earnings engine" ... "not generally a stock mkt guy, but large cap seems pretty cheap to me" and he made 50X on GGP
But it seems "less" likely to me that it would occur that way...
They'll tell you... EWI is more about a PROBABILITY MATRIX... Of course anything is possible, but then there's betting high probability outcomes & longshots...
CV still thinks we take out the March '09 lows... But not tomorrow...
I highly doubt many people would be convinced of a P3 scenario if we move to 800, instead I'd think the following would happen:
1. E-wavers begin to call that down move wave 2 down, and their Primary wave 3 will be up, huge bull market.
2. it will be termed a "healthy correction" and a fantastic buying opp, "look what happened in 2009, things are way better now" many comparisons will be drawn to bull markets and those types of corrections. People will begin to clasp dummy data like p/e ratios and the like.
I don't even know many wavers that believe in P3, that's an outcome being counted by a small small minority of market participants.
Bring it up outside corners like this and you'll be called crazy. Want proof? Go make the comment on Barry's market rally thread and see what happens.
from ZH: It must have been at least a week without the US government announcing some stimulus, subsidy, tariff or other protectionist measure, because today the government just passed yet another $79 billion stimulus bill, extending unemployment benefits and restoring expired tax breaks. The net cost to the deficit: around $30 billion. This really is a drop in the bucket: so far in fiscal 2010, the US budget has already spent over $107 billion on unemployment benefits, and $30 billion is less than the government raises in one of its three biweekly coupon auctions. On the other hand, when Obama next wonders why nobody in America works any more, he may want to reevaluate that 6 million unemployed people in the US are now encouraged to be on government payrolls for
I'm more fiscally conservative than most, but I do favor providing extended unemployment benefits in the current environment. In any case, it's a lot cheaper than all the cr*p that Obama wants to spend money on.
On the other hand, when Obama next wonders why nobody in America works any more, he may want to reevaluate that 6 million unemployed people in the US are now encouraged to be on government payrolls
That's what CV has been saying all along...
It's Obama's MO...
He WANTS everybody to be sucking off the government tit...
Why do I get the feeling that Obama is trying to time his speech to when the circuit breakers are off? So he can allow TPTB to run the market higher into the close. Can't have a down day leading into a holiday weekend. {snark}
cv - re TWSWB, on tuesday he posted this our Long/Short accounts QID $21.16 3% BJ $39.14 5% OSTK $22.64 5% NAV $52.80 5% ICE $122.08 5% PCS $8.80 4% We are 24% long, with a 6% short position in the QIDs. Hence, our net exposure is 18%.
You've always wanted one, but could never afford it. We've been repositioning them from wall street fat cats and now want to move them to main street. Who knows who owned it before you? Madoff? His wife? Some hedge fund guy from connecticut? It only ads to the mystique.
Actually, looking at my count from last night, I am not liking it. The wave 2 (1095.14-1088.65) was not long enough. We could be in a 5 of wave 1 of C. This would most definitely push us up in to the nether regions of 1140's. I guess we are in wait and see mode.
ReplyDeleteActually, not most definitely but quite possibly.
ReplyDeleteThe more I see it...
ReplyDeleteThe more I'm liking Andy's 1040 area...
excuse me... 1140
ReplyDeletenice video.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteThe "whistling past the graveyard" made me LOL
Yo, Timmy, another stimulus in the Fall is a LAY-UP
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteI know that you don't really ascribe EWI to individual stocks (or, at least, I know it's less reliable)...
But... if you were counting F would that be a "double top" to you (and the 2nd top the wave 2 peak)?
@POTUS
ReplyDeleteThen Amen is going to have to change his "Wrap" to
QE3 to infinity...
I am with you guys on the following:
ReplyDeleteDXY retracement in progress to 85 or below before another leg up.
SPX to 1110 and probably 1140-1150 before another leg down.
Momo Tuesday likely after BRIAN's BBQ.
Remember last Mon at Macro Man, I said:
Sell Yen
Sell Treasuries
Sell Volatility
Wish I traded the market as well as I make calls....
LB Lives!!
ReplyDeleteThat video is a great find CV
C,
ReplyDeleteAndy did a long term count on F a little while ago:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/27997943/Ford-Report-7-March-2010
Re: F -- I think that the 3 or 4 penny difference could easily be a "throw over" and not a "higher high." Its definitely a double top if you draw your trendlines w/ a crayon. I'm not much of a wave counter, so for now F just looks lost in the no man's land between the 50 and the 200. I've never posted here but I followed you all over from the last blog and I just want to say thanks for keeping this going.
ReplyDelete@LB
ReplyDeleteBrian can hardly wait for the weekend... He's probably already heating up the charcoal...
@McF
Thanks... I'm fascinated by this one now...
LB has to run before he gets another BEAT-DOWN in the comments from The Mistress.
ReplyDeletePlus, his job is getting him down, travel, stress, deadlines, days from Hell. Basically major suckage, dudes. On the road again next week.
Have fun y'all, will try to catch you later today or will report after the get-together at BRIAN's on MONDAY.
C,
ReplyDeleteWe nearly cancelled the BBQ - until that 3% rally - BRIAN was down in the fallout shelter last week avoiding clients, and I was on the phone all day long calming anxious inwestors.
@Tawny
ReplyDeleteThey appear calm at the moment...
Feel free to put in the Junior Varsity team going into the weekend...
LB was right on the subject of an imminent face-ripper, BTW...
ReplyDeleteOK, good luck to all. Hang in there.
"Feel free to put in the Junior Varsity team going into the weekend..."
ReplyDeleteExactly. Jamie is already firing up the grill and we are having some grilled Euro shorts that we partially prepared yesterday.
@LB
ReplyDeleteThe face ripper was a good call... CV took it to heart and has thus been "hedged" since 1042...
In 3-4 days it'll be time to start ripping faces the other way I'm sure...
at the bbq brian might persuade a few joe & jane sixpacks to do this to prepare them for next week
ReplyDeleteI will leave you with this little nugget to remind you that whatever the equity market does is a SIDESHOW, with LIBOR rising and this action going on in corporate credit markets:
ReplyDeleteSpreads Have Widened
@LB
ReplyDeleteWe're back to the fall of 2008...
libor
ReplyDeleteSomeone else may be able to offer clarity but it would appear we are heading for a double zigzag.
ReplyDeleteMorning!! FUN video! loved the surprise ending : )
ReplyDeleteBen, see what JCG did this quarter?
ReplyDeleteJ. Crew Group Inc.'s (JCG) fiscal first-quarter earnings more than doubled as the retailer benefited from decreased markdowns and promotional selling.
The retailer's results beat its previous estimate and it also raised its guidance for the full year to earnings of $2.35 to $2.45 a share, compared with its previous view of $2.20 to $2.30. Analysts were projecting $2.34 a share.
famous last words? May 28 (Bloomberg) -- An increase in the rate banks pay for three-month dollar loans isn’t indicative “of any imminent disaster in the financial system,” Citigroup Inc. said.
ReplyDelete“This is not the stuff that financial crises are made of,” Mark Schofield, head of interest-rate strategy at Citigroup in London, wrote in a research note yesterday. “A return to the more prudent lending patterns of the 1980s and 90s, however, should be welcomed rather than feared from the perspective of the long-term health of the financial system in our view.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arSCzJ5bC7qA&pos=4
Anon, C,
ReplyDeleteYes, there is a lot to look at with the Ford chart but this is one I continue to keep an eye on.
Karen,
re: JCG, I wonder how many luxury shoppers are using them as an alternative of late? Looks like they are adding 15 new stores, we just got a new one in DE. They are still having losses with Madewell, not sure how big of an impact that could create if consumer spending is to slow. I see tangible book value at 5.89 on 1/31/10 and revenues increased in the last 12 months.
Hmmm didn't expect that opening. Another test of my five 1-min candle theory. Also Trin >2.0
ReplyDeleteJunior traders being tested right out of the gate. iPhones just started ringing in the Hamptons.
did you all see the jump in bearish sentiment in AAII?
ReplyDeleteInteresting read on fire-walking, bat, thanks..
ReplyDeleteBen, definitely an alternative to BG, NM, and Saks.. (as I can personally confirm!) I've been saying this since last year, I think.. Also, a hit with the twenty-somethings..
DL told you all this would happen : )
ReplyDeletecheck hyg:lgd today.. would love to see a long bearish engulfing to confirm yesterday's enuf-is-enuf candle.
ReplyDeletePPT to the rescue
ReplyDeleteI think this dynamic with the H&S patterns is really very interesting.
ReplyDeleteWe have a giant Head and Shoulders that has been forming over the last 10 years and it is very strict in how it has taken shape along with the underlying market charachteristics. We also have this one:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/dow-head-shoulders-chart/
and then the inverse we can all see
I'm also still pretty blown away with the fibo time relationships that continue to occur now that are nearly perfect larger cycle representations of the Great D.
A good message for today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOniR2N63zQ
See if resistance becomes support at 1090
My other favorite topic: Bank Profit Mirage III From FASB With Love
ReplyDeleteGreetings in the name of the most high Jah...
ReplyDeleteWhatevah a gwan today, no mean a ting.
Karen
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link. Banks have been lying from day one. The fact that people are paying more attention to their shenanigans has to be driving them crazy.
LB, your XGF is twittering again..
ReplyDeleteanyone doing anything cool for the weekend?
ReplyDeleteapols, I'm hardly watching today, I had a 15 hour day yesterday....tired.
Oh, this weekend?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ncaa.com/brackets/2010/ncaa_bracket_DI_lacrosse_men.html
WA-HOO-WA, bitches!!!
I,
ReplyDeleteWas hoping UD made it a little further but they were bounced by the Heels in the first round. They usually have a pretty good squad.
I'm going to be riding up and down the Potomac in my boat (maybe a little waterskiing)...
ReplyDeleteLobster (again) & corn on the menu...
They're CANADIAN lobster, Nic... :-)
HW got a shot in at the other site.
ReplyDeleteI love Curtis Dickson, Ben...
ReplyDeleteHe was one of the sickest attackmen I saw play this year. Definitely deserving of the Tewaaraton, the way he carried that team. I think he finished #1 in goals for all of D1. (Probably not far behind that in assists either.)
That quarterfinal game was awesome, I was really pulling for them.
Lawrence Yun finally got something right!!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/37381999
While sales of existing homes shot up across most of the nation in April, they fell in the West, down 6.2 percent.
"The sales are lower because of lack of inventory on lower-priced homes," says Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors. "The California market was one of the first markets to go down sharply but also the first market to rebound."
The inventory of low-priced homes is low because of big investor demand initially and because banks are being very careful with REO (bank owned) properties, releasing them slowly onto the market so as not to tank prices.
But that's not all of it.
"We know the tax-credit has pushed low-priced houses up sharply and investors have backed away big-time in recent months, not wanting to compete with a bunch of first-timers and their Obama coupons," says mortgage analyst Mark Hanson. "Perhaps this is the end of the demand cycle from first timers and investors who have had their fill."
Nic won't be a real Canadian until she finds herself waterskiing with an ipad...for fear of missing hockey in June.
ReplyDeleteHahaha funny. If we get some wind I am kitesurfing this weekend
ReplyDeleteDamn, Nic...
ReplyDeleteYou must have some good upper body strength.
Ever seen the folks in SF Bay do that?
ReplyDeleteI've seen them catch like 20ft of air right by the GG bridge...
I saw a guy get kited into 80 ft pines last year. Weird winds on the small lakes around here. He was OK, but his friends were really working to get him down slowly. The kite wasn't so lucky.
ReplyDelete@
ReplyDeleteNic
I'd be surfing suds on the patio at the Black Bull on Queen West.
The root of the housing bubble remains unchanged.
ReplyDeleteYeah those kites are more fragile than they look. It is great fun tho.
ReplyDeleteJeff Spicoli says...
ReplyDelete"All I need are some tasty waves and a cool buzz & I'm fine"
Mel I am an east end girl. I will be in Ashbridges Bay.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI didn't know "bubbles" had "roots"...
That's a new one for CV :-)
Do we close early today, or are we on a full shift?
ReplyDeleteThe wind is notoriously crazy there. Small lakes in the mountains, lots of small mico-climates, "cats paws" everywhere.
ReplyDeleteI've never seen anyone try it before there. I he was the reason, he didn't seem local.
some interesting waves being painted here....
ReplyDeletefrom Karen's link....Obama coupons....that's classic.
ReplyDeleteThe Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) has subpoenaed Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) CEO Warren Buffet after the highly regarded investment guru turned done two invitations to testify before the Committee.
ReplyDeleteThe FCIC first contacted Buffett on May 12 when Wendy Edelberg, executive director of the commission, sent a letter to him saying that his views on several financial topics would be of “great value” to the group.
According to the request, the FCIC wanted to discuss the misuse of derivative investments, rating agencies and too big to fail.
Buffett turned down the request as he associated testimony before the FCIC with those who were generally implicated in the financial crisis.
The FCIC followed with another request on May 17 requesting a “private interview” with a possible hearing to follow, to which Buffet again politely declined.
The third request, a subpoena, cannot be declined by Buffet and states during his testimony questions will be focused on the credit rating agencies.
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/05/28/berkshire-hathaways-nyse-brk-b-warren-buffett-subpoenaed-by-fcic/
p/c was really high this morning, 2.1, declining now but still very high.
ReplyDeleteThe Warren Buffett persona should be ripped to shreds by Primary Wave 3.
ReplyDeleteBob don't worry I will be on Lake Ontario. If it all goes wrong I will call you to get me in NY
ReplyDeleteDon't forget to check in with customs on the way over...;)
ReplyDelete@ i-man
ReplyDeletebecause ex-wing walkers are likely to have superior upper body strength?
nic - do you have pix of you in flight back in the day?
I respect my elders, but I think Uncle Warren has some skeletons in his closet that may be overdue to see the light.
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDeleteWB... "When the REAL tide goes out we'll see who's swimming naked"...
CV is only half interested today... I'm basically just checking in from time to time to make sure the junior varsity doesn't screw things up...
Packing up the truck for a long weekend :-)
I do Bat, I will scan it for you this weekend.
ReplyDeleteLet the lobsters live, CV...
ReplyDelete:)
Nic, we would all be thrilled to see!
ReplyDeletenic -
ReplyDeletein bat's imagination that image might well be a candidate for a survivor capital logo. eh, cv?
You don't think that sitting on his boat drinking champagne is a better logo for "survivor capital"?
ReplyDeletewing-walking implies a certain level of ability, judgment and plain nerve, right?
ReplyDeleteboat sittin', bubbly sippin', not so much.
I think the 60min AUDJPY chart should be the new logo for Survivor Capital...
ReplyDeleteAnyone up for a cliff dive?
Interesting Book Review: The Great Reflation
ReplyDelete"He also comes to the conclusion that I do, that there are no easy asset allocation decisions here, and that one should diversify widely in order to preserve assets. Also, he concludes that there is no easy endgame for heavily indebted nations, and that there will be a reckoning, though whether that means inflation or deflation is impossible to tell in advance."
so far, (fwiw, not so much) midpoint of today's range is a certain magic number (don't mention it in a certain person's presence though).
ReplyDeletecurrent opinion on which gap gets filled first, still last wednesday's 1115 before this wednesday's 1068? dl?
Karen @ 9:46
ReplyDelete"All this"...?
I know I'm in the minority here, but I think the 1107-1115 gap stands firm.
ReplyDeleteThe market will make it hard to short this top.
@ Nic, Bob, Mel...
ReplyDeleteI-Man spent the night at Fort George once. Inside the fort, actually. It was kinda cool.
Taleb twitters! The first is one I know too well, sadly.
ReplyDeleteA friendship that ends was never one; there was at least one sucker in it.
The weak shows off his strength, hides his defects; the magnificent exhibits his defects like ornaments. [Robustness]
Saying "the mathematics of uncertainty" is like saying "the chastity of sex" -what is mathematized is no longer uncertain, & vice versa
@
ReplyDeleteNic
I used to produce segments for CBC radio/tv and Rodgers Broadcast Prods while taking classes at OCA...had three different apts in Clarence Sq....where Wellington meets Spadina...however, also lived off Fallingbrook Rd. for a year...walked the Queen E boardwalk every day...My farms in Sk., however, where I'm currently looking out for my aging mom. I'm looking forward to moving back.
I take that back, it was Fort Niagra in NY we stayed at...
ReplyDeleteDid a gig at Fort George the next day.
@Nic
ReplyDeleteMy boat ain't all that...
We're not talking TWSWB's type of boat...
Just something that's:
- powerful enough to ski behind
- doesn't draft too much (as the Potomac can get low in late summer if there's no rain
- but can also handle the chop on the Chesapeake Bay (when I go crabbing this summer)
@I-Man (12:27)
ReplyDeleteYou'll change your mind next Tuesday :-)
Oh yeah?
ReplyDeleteYou mean 1126?
That number may be disconnected by Tuesday...
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteIn the end, it doesn't really matter...
A trip from 1126 to the 1140's will be very short lived...
DL, I was just being silly; it was a compliment in reference to your, "Yeah, I couldn't resist. Had to sell (short) an S&P contract at the close. May 27, 2010 4:02 PM"
ReplyDeleteI-Man @ 12:27, the fact that you and I are in the same camp might be a contrary indicator!! LOL.
ReplyDeleteOh, back in a sec.. let me see how far up my latest short positions are : )
ReplyDeleteIt only means something to people like ME (that is playing with BEER MONEY)...
ReplyDeleteIf you're running with mega "m's" & "b's", well, this is the last chance to "SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY"...
(which is what some of them did this morning)...
Sorry I-Man I don't see today as anymore than a pullback after a bigger rally and I think we have to correct higher before we can fall again. Look on it as good selling opportunities to come.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDelete...all that RUSH was, was to validate the end of:
"2 of 5 of C"
which means... "watch out for 3"
ReplyDeletewe could even be at 1114 at the close...
ReplyDelete(not a prediction)
cv-
ReplyDelete3000 spxu is a lotta pbr's, but yeah when compared to mega-m's & b's, sorta.
I know CV, but we're running out of things to disagree about.
ReplyDelete1110's the high print for next week I think...
Failure to close gap will mark the next leg down.
CV, baby, the only waves i know are off salt water. That's why I appreciate all of you so much.
ReplyDeleteoops on 1090
ReplyDeleteOk Karen, its me and you against the world.
ReplyDelete(But hopefully not against the tape.)
Its probably not fair for me to be making all these calls, and bets and shit, when I'm not even trading, so full disclosure bitches...
I only have pride at stake here, and pride is cheap.
Told ya I was feeling up for a dive...
ReplyDeleteWell i hope you are rinsing it with your shorts Karen :)
ReplyDeleteTrendline support on the 15min at 1086... lets see if she can hold it.
ReplyDeleteIf we can get down to 1075, I'd be tempted to buy for a pop on Tuesday. (Of course, 1055 would be better, but we're not going to get there today).
ReplyDeleteSpain cut to AA plus from AAA by Fitch
ReplyDeleteDL,
ReplyDelete1074 is my next support target after 1086, fwiw.
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteMy main curiosity is if the MONTHLY 3lB reverses today (or next month)...
That's 1094...
So if it stays pinned down here - you'll know why...
Extend and pretend (if even for only a month)...
That was a sneaky little downgrade... wonder how the Hampton's team likes that news?
ReplyDelete:)
Nic @ 12:51
ReplyDeleteMost shocking, indeed.
pull up a one month, 30 min chart of the spx and compare in KD fashion from video above.. this week to the 5 trading days beginning May 5.
ReplyDeleteFitch downgrades CDO's guaranteed by Spain:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-now-fitch-downgrades-cdos-guaranteed-spain-margin-calls-anyone
Where are we now? SPY 109.68.
ReplyDeleteWhat was 109.68?
Check the low from week of 10/03/08...
The LEH gap.
Just found it interesting, probably doesnt mean anything.
There are so many lessons here!
ReplyDeletePequot Trading Probe Could Yield $1 Million Bounty for Ex-Wife
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRb89CVHbnNI&pos=7
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteIMO - At this point you have to start looking at MONTHLY CLOSING CANDLES...
One way or another, P3 isn't going to get started until a final backtest is done on either monthly closes, or monthly high wicks...
We're too far under that right now to make it viable...
Even if we go down from here, we'd come back to test it in July...
It's time to get the show on the road...
Maybe this isnt a P3... Maybe its just a move down to 800 to convince everyone its a P3...
ReplyDeleteSometimes I think the labels can be counter productive.
What's the "risk off" area for AUDJPY?
ReplyDeleteI'd say about 76, but I'll let Nic be the Authoritah on that one...
ReplyDeleteAckman bullish on America and Citi... Hmmmm. "well capitalized balance sheet", "powerful earnings engine" ... "not generally a stock mkt guy, but large cap seems pretty cheap to me" and he made 50X on GGP
ReplyDelete2s2b
I'm looking to sell AUDJPY again around 82.00
ReplyDeleteAUDUSD around 87.00
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDeleteI can't explain EWI (like ben or Andy could)...
But it seems "less" likely to me that it would occur that way...
They'll tell you... EWI is more about a PROBABILITY MATRIX... Of course anything is possible, but then there's betting high probability outcomes & longshots...
CV still thinks we take out the March '09 lows... But not tomorrow...
I highly doubt many people would be convinced of a P3 scenario if we move to 800, instead I'd think the following would happen:
ReplyDelete1. E-wavers begin to call that down move wave 2 down, and their Primary wave 3 will be up, huge bull market.
2. it will be termed a "healthy correction" and a fantastic buying opp, "look what happened in 2009, things are way better now" many comparisons will be drawn to bull markets and those types of corrections. People will begin to clasp dummy data like p/e ratios and the like.
I don't even know many wavers that believe in P3, that's an outcome being counted by a small small minority of market participants.
Bring it up outside corners like this and you'll be called crazy. Want proof? Go make the comment on Barry's market rally thread and see what happens.
1080 is calling to Mr. Market.
ReplyDeleteAUDJPY for today, I would change my view to "risk off" from pullback below 74.00
ReplyDeleteI see AUDJPY should get to 80.00 before the next swing down.
ReplyDeleteGS 144 weekly close seems big...
ReplyDelete@2s2b,
ReplyDeletethe question is....did Bill cry when he said it? Very emotional guy....
Bill looked like cr*p and spoke cr*p in that video..
ReplyDeleteBen, you'll like this...
ReplyDeleteSo on my FB page, because I'm bored as hell today, I have posed the following:
Bel Biv Devoe OR Boyz 2 Men?... That, is the question.
I've been amazed by the response so far... several people have stated their preference.
I'll give you the results, if you answer the question...
Social mood.
:)
Using 10 SMA SPX monthly closes:
ReplyDelete10/31/00 below
3/29/02 above
4/30/02 below
4/30/03 above
7/30/04 below
10/29/04 above
11/30/07 below
6/30/09 above
5/28/10 ??? (10 SMA= 1096.22)
this article makes me think markets are very unstable:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_gKkM37yJz0&pos=7
@McF (1:27)
ReplyDeleteThat's my sense... I'm glad you're around to describe it in a better technical sense... (as "technical" relates to emotion)...
We'll be seeing this before the day is over: Exit Stage Left
ReplyDeleteIman-
ReplyDeleteNeither
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2767r_biz-markie-just-a-friend_music
Oh but Karen, insurers and all their annuity products are totally safe, right?
ReplyDeleteWow Bob, I didnt see that Dark Horse entering the race...
ReplyDeleteAmenRa @ 1:45
ReplyDeleteCare to quantitate that?
Hey Ra,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your numbers on the squid?
DL
ReplyDeleteTrin has been holding 1.5 or higher most of the day. Usually indicates a sell off into the close (I said usually).
AmenRa,
ReplyDeleteI want the EXACT closing number for the S&P500.
Nothing less will do.
all i know is rsi and sto on spx/spy are not on the band wagon..
ReplyDeleteand this is not a typical recovery.. hell, it's not even a recovery..
ReplyDeleteY'all really think they're going to let the JAYVEE screw this up going into a 3 day weekend?
ReplyDeletefrom ZH: It must have been at least a week without the US government announcing some stimulus, subsidy, tariff or other protectionist measure, because today the government just passed yet another $79 billion stimulus bill, extending unemployment benefits and restoring expired tax breaks. The net cost to the deficit: around $30 billion. This really is a drop in the bucket: so far in fiscal 2010, the US budget has already spent over $107 billion on unemployment benefits, and $30 billion is less than the government raises in one of its three biweekly coupon auctions. On the other hand, when Obama next wonders why nobody in America works any more, he may want to reevaluate that 6 million unemployed people in the US are now encouraged to be on government payrolls for
ReplyDeleteDL
ReplyDeleteIf I knew that I wouldn't be at work.
Oh yeah I can just read it now...
ReplyDeleteFriday Headlines... "DOW CLOSES UNDER 10,000 - enjoy your barbecues folks"
@ Ra
ReplyDeleteThx! I had a feeling 144 would sneak in there somewhere...
@ CV
But that implies they are in control...
Man, that's a tough one I.
ReplyDeleteI think I gotta go with Boyz 2 Men.
I've got some memories from my middle school dayz with those guys.
I'm more fiscally conservative than most, but I do favor providing extended unemployment benefits in the current environment. In any case, it's a lot cheaper than all the cr*p that Obama wants to spend money on.
ReplyDeleteI only have basic chart pulled up....what's volume like today? Little sharper here than I expected....
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, when Obama next wonders why nobody in America works any more, he may want to reevaluate that 6 million unemployed people in the US are now encouraged to be on government payrolls
That's what CV has been saying all along...
It's Obama's MO...
He WANTS everybody to be sucking off the government tit...
That's how facist dictators are created...
I mean, what are the chances that at 2:31 we hear "Release the Kracken!"
ReplyDelete@ DL
ReplyDeleteI'll take the easy way out: 1078.87
I-Man,
ReplyDeleteI vehemently disagree. I say 1078.85.
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteI never said they were in control...
But on a low volume Friday (in front of a holiday weekend)... It's not that hard to make it so you can pick up pennies (on either side)...
I'm gonna have to go with 1078.86 then.
ReplyDeleteThat's contrarian baby.
I'll buy the KRACKEN at 1078... (even tho I wasn't going to do anything - and FRANKLY - the truck is packed and I'm ready to go)...
ReplyDeletekind of "annoyed" actually...
McF,
ReplyDeleteNo, that's middle-of-the-road.
OT - @I, bob,
ReplyDeleteMaybe throw a little Heavy D & the Boyz in the survey mix?
Ben - Ackman wasn't cryin' and didn't mention off balance sheet "assets" either, maybe he'll be out before it matters
2s2b
Personally, i hate the mtg interest deduction..
ReplyDeletehttp://taxvox.taxpolicycenter.org/blog/_archives/2010/5/27/4538831.html
You can plan a pretty picnic but you caint predict the weatha...
ReplyDeleteKaren @ 2:04
ReplyDeleteI favor eliminating ALL deductions.
But lower the rates.
DL.. hmm, what does it mean when we are seeing eye to eye? laughing
ReplyDeleteZerohedge tweeted:
ReplyDeletethe hamptons party is over
lol
@karen
ReplyDeleteIt means DL is standing on "4 inch ELEVATOR PLATFORMS" (vis-a-vis Saturday Night Fever) :-)
Nic! LOL.. just saw that and this from HousingWire:
ReplyDeleteLehman Brothers estate sues JP Morgan Chase
@Nic
ReplyDeleteTWSWB doesn't care...
He's IN CASH (risk free - just collectin' commissions)... :-)
DL
ReplyDelete1071 which is the trendline using the 2010 lows.
@Nic
ReplyDeleteHey Nic... What's your fee? 1%? 2%?... On a mil... What am I out?
$5,000? $10,000?
Great!
I'll just send you my money and you can hold it in cash for me (while I pay you that commission)...
Or would you prefer I just mail you a check for $10,000 & call it a day?
K @ 2:10
ReplyDeleteIn a manner of speaking.
TLT at day high, not usual for a friday.
ReplyDeleteErrm whats the fee for?
ReplyDeleteWhy do I get the feeling that Obama is trying to time his speech to when the circuit breakers are off? So he can allow TPTB to run the market higher into the close. Can't have a down day leading into a holiday weekend. {snark}
ReplyDeletewe only stopped cos the crude pit is closing. Every Friday afternoon crude bounces up 50ticks on closing.
ReplyDeleteDid nothing today but my FI portfolio is up. Now that's what I call economy of effort, making something go up without doing anything.
ReplyDeleteYou might make some money shorting TLT into the close. A momo rally on Tuesday would be one plausible scenario.
Good grief. Advertisement for "pre-owned" BMW's:
ReplyDeletehttp://twitpic.com/1ebm4f
@LB
ReplyDeleteGood Idea!
good grief...
ReplyDeleteAnd this is new news?
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/05/28/more-bank-owned-homes-likely-to-hit-the-market/
FWIW,
ReplyDeleteIt was Bel Biv Devoe in a landslide...
But alas...
ReplyDeleteCV is doing nothing...
It was probably a lot of fun for the JUNIOR VARSITY ALGOS...
But I'm packed and ready to go (and I'm going to "blow off" the last 90 here)...
PEEPS - I'll put up some threads over the weekend (social - have fun stuff)...
Hopefully - Andy will be back Sunday EVE... I'm sure he will but I haven't talked to him...
CV (off to the farm)
Drive a pre-owned bmw, get a fly female, and feel better about your self.
ReplyDeleteFlyest muthafucka in the McD's drive thru...
ReplyDeletei could make a case for 1065, again..
ReplyDeleteI-Man
ReplyDeleteOr in the parking lot at Aldi's
cv -
ReplyDeletere TWSWB, on tuesday he posted this
our Long/Short accounts
QID $21.16 3%
BJ $39.14 5%
OSTK $22.64 5%
NAV $52.80 5%
ICE $122.08 5%
PCS $8.80 4%
We are 24% long, with a 6% short position in the QIDs. Hence, our net exposure is 18%.
LOL Ra... had to google that one.
ReplyDeleteGreat, are we back to tooling around with 1090 again?
ReplyDeletePfft.
BMW ad-
ReplyDeleteYou've always wanted one, but could never afford it. We've been repositioning them from wall street fat cats and now want to move them to main street. Who knows who owned it before you? Madoff? His wife? Some hedge fund guy from connecticut? It only ads to the mystique.
Oh shit, this was John Voight's car!!!
ReplyDeleteWhy you shouldn't touch UNG
ReplyDeletehttp://etfdb.com/2010/ung-not-a-scam-but-a-tough-bet-to-win/
"Good grief. Advertisement for "pre-owned" BMW's:
ReplyDeletehttp://twitpic.com/1ebm4f"
Heavens. I hope so. She looks about 12... tacky.
Have fun with 1094, algos.
ReplyDeleteMan, I would of thought BIIM would have won.
ReplyDeleteC,
ReplyDeleteI think AT will have some charts for us next week.
I'm packing it in.
Everyone have a great weekend.
"Now that's what I call economy of effort, making something go up without doing anything."
ReplyDeleteI bet Karen can achieve this simply by walking on the beach....
Boy, that SPX 1min chart sure looks "natural" doesnt it?
ReplyDeleteGot a real healthy market on our hands here...