While there are many different technical indicators (waves, moving averages, fibos, AND OF COURSE THAT TRUSTY "PATTERN RECOGNITION SOFTWARE" from TD Ameritrade... "Look honey! My PRS has detected a 3P&ADH!, Let's buy low and sell high!"), the VIX often can warn you of scary things about to happen...
Last evening I was looking over some other blogs, and DANERIC pointed out a "cross" which was about to happen on the 50 and 200MA's on the HOURLY charts. Being a fan of VIX behavior, it caught my interest.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgawh79cm9d7xj_tI7KCwevoocaZHqVwXYPLFRQ0BND2I2RQhRYPdOTpZFtfzGEdQGuAGqOIGrTOIBEM1Pf7Jijm_0lxg0frRSeuPZKuo7jEXOgDSeekxIIdW-8gRTpOB9TWBLPOAYpeZ4/s1600/vix60.png
So I decided to look at some other CROSS maneuvers on the VIX. I tend to like to use FIBO numbers (rather that the standard 50 or 200 types). I basically came up with looking at the 55MA & the 89MA. Now I realize I could be criticized for "fitting" technicals retrospectively to moves, but the is no denying that the "crosses" of these averages mold nicely to the vicious decline of the S&P, and the eventual relentless rise since March '09.
A few things stand out.
1. The CROSS of these averages occurred roughly a month before the averages really turned the corner.
2. The 55MA has not "crossed" the 89 (to the upside) since the March '09 rally began.
3. The VIX has "spiked" on occasion (where a few DAILY candles came in over the 89MA, but settled back in time to avoid the 55MA/89MA cross.
It may be something to think about if we start getting any "corrective" type moves in the indices (which could occur at any minute)...
Hey, they could occur TODAY (today is the 55th day since the 1044 lows back in February)...
So HAVE A PINA COLADA @ TRADER VIX (and relax)... Your hair is perfect!
Note:
ReplyDeleteThe DAILY VIX chart that I put up doesn't show any IMMINENT signs of the 55MA crossing over the 89MA...
My point is, the relationship may be something to watch...
IOW - If we get a spike in the VIX (and some kind of market correction), this may become a handy indicator to use to see if it's THE BIG ONE or not...
gotta like a post w/ a Zevon reference-
ReplyDelete. . .and this- from the previous post- DL says to ol' Ahab-
"Private contracts, my *ss."
uh . . .ok then-
and then DL says to ol' Ahab-
"I can give you 787 billion reasons why those weren't private contracts."
so . . .when the government takes it upon itself to give banks 3/4 of a trillion dollars- that negates a contract between a bank and a mortgagor?
oh . . .I forgot- they're not contracts-
my bad
EUR/USD has bounced at 1.329 2 or 3 times now. I wonder if this is the final time?
ReplyDeleteReminds me of the resistance a few months back at 1.44.
@LB
ReplyDeleteDid you play in the rain last night?
It can cause a slippery field you know!
This wasn't you missing this goal was it?
http://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/blog/sow_experts/post/The-latest-worst-miss-ever?urn=sow,236778
@McHappy (8:55)
ReplyDeleteBarreling down the stretch run for the May 4th (1.29) handle that I put on that back in FEBRUARY...
Apropos - It's KENTUCKY DERBY time!
C running away from $5. USG may have to hurry up and get that reverse split done before a reverse split only gets the stock back to $5.
ReplyDeleteBTW -
ReplyDeleteFor all you HORSE RACING fans...
I'm going to be doing DERBY PICKS here this weekend...
Everyone will have a "fantasy" $20 account to spend (I know - big spender, right?)...
Bet it all on the nose of one horse... Spread it out over WIN-PLACE-SHOW... Or, do some exotic exacta/trifecta plays...
I'll post the FIELD as soon as it's finally set, and the POST POSITIONS have been established... Then I'll solicit EVERYONE's horses, and compile a list...
@Amen (8:59)
ReplyDeleteLOL
BTW -
ReplyDeleteCV's BIRTHDAY is May 1st...
The RUN FOR THE ROSES is always on the first Saturday in May (which means that 'occasionally', in my lifetime, the KENTUCKY DERBY is run on my birthday)... There have been 7 Derbys on my birthday... anyone care to guess which horses won on those days?...
This Saturday will be the 8th Derby on my birthday (in my days on this planet)...
"I am not quite sure how much water the USS Leviathan has already taken on, and how big the hole might be. But I firmly believe that the iceberg has been struck, the damage done, and the process has begun. The lifeboats are being quietly provisioned and reservations taken for the officers and crew, and the upper decks." Jesse's Cafe
ReplyDeleteno doubt
@ahab
ReplyDeleteSee what a FIRST CLASS ticket buys you?
No Benjamin Guggenheim's these days...
After all... NOWADAYS it's all about the BENJAMINS and no longer... all about the 'Benjamins'
CV,
ReplyDeleteSaw that miss, yes, there are an amazing number of these every week.
I'd be a buyer of EURUSD right here if I had to choose, one more squeeze to go IMO.
ReplyDelete@bob
ReplyDeleteYou might be right... But it would appear to me that you're playing with thin margins at this point until a SOLID bottom is established...
Unless you think this is it...
I don't think the bottom is in. Short term I think we go higher. Seeing a wedge that we are on the bottom of that expires on late Thursday.
ReplyDeleteAgree on the thin margin, not playing this hand.
@bob
ReplyDeleteThat's clear...
You're probably 'correct' too...
Actually, lately that's been the RHYTHM...
Spreads start blowing up in Europe in the middle to latter part of the week (followed by some European PM telling people they'll "lose their shirts" betting against default) over the weekend...
EUR/USD bottoms on Monday (shorts get covered)...
Rinse - Repeat (to 1.29)...Rolls Eyes
Cue the DOMINOES
ReplyDeleteHow many plans for a plan are they planning? I'll take the over.
ReplyDeleteAlotta alliteration there bob!
ReplyDeleteI'm watching FXI a little here...
ReplyDeleteIs that the start of a "3"? or just a "C"...?
Hmmm...
exiting CAT puts from yesterday. There are no great wave set ups very near term from what I can tell so quick trades is the way to go.
ReplyDeleteNinja.
Drugs are good :o)
ReplyDeletetest
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that we could see something 1194-ish on this pullback...
Unless something really breaks...
A little something to "take the edge" off...
ReplyDeleteRight Amen? :-)
gotta roll out-
ReplyDeleteall have a great day- parting thought-
"All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth."-
Nietzsche
Trader Vic was the man.
ReplyDelete@I-Man
ReplyDeleteGet some charts up on your site I-Man...
I'm hungry like the (were)wolf!
Just not in the mood man, been too busy "back a yard."
ReplyDeleteYou know how it goes...
My chart appetite comes in waves just like price.
Depressingly -
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing a triangle here that ought to keep it in the 1194 - 1210 range for another day or so...
While anything could happen when that concludes, it's hard to fight the UP momentum that this market has...
Basically, if 1194 gets supported... It's probably 1230 City!
Good Morning! AR, you are alive! Thank goodness.. CV, May 1 is my wedding anniversary. I really like that date, though. I can't believe my effing fxp is still underwater.. i swear my cost basis got messed up on the reverse split. but probably not.. i'll check it out. My coffee is so strong, I may need to put tape over my mouth for a few hours. Maybe show off my new shoes?
ReplyDeleteC,
ReplyDeletethere are too many things going on internally beside the wave count that say this isn't the big sell-off yet. AT says Neely thinks it may take a few more weeks, I'd concur, that triangle count that AT called the "neely count" is about as good as any I've seen lately or anything I can come up with. Trying to label real short term squiggles I have 2 counts that I think hold about equal probability and 1 that's an outlier so at this point I'm also expecting higher prices the next couple of weeks.
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteI know what you're saying "back a yard"...
I still have most of my stuff INDOORS (but I bring it out on trays during the sunshine...
There's STILL the risk of an overnight frost (but this should be the last week of that)...
I've mainly been working on readying the ABOVE GROUND boxes... (I add a few more each year - adding square footage)...
It's an exponential type of thing because more space means more things to grow, which means more COMPOST which means more soil, and more BOXES again...
Kinda cool!
@McF
ReplyDeleteI VERY MUCH concur with what you're saying (and what both Andy T & Neely are saying)...
I wish I could "see" something different, but it's just not there...
I do see, perhaps, a 1194 either today or tomorrow...
The FXP purchases made in the 7's are now at a decent profit at least.
ReplyDeleteRa,
glad you seem to be doing better today. You're a champ.
I think I'm going to watch the show today on cnbc...
ReplyDeleteHearing congresspeople speak about "net short positions" and try to explain them to a courtroom is a little torturous though, I will admit.
@karen
ReplyDeleteI love May 1st too...
Not because it's MY birthday (or YOUR anniversary)...
But just because I think it's a "cool" date...
It's like... TO ME... The REAL beginning of spring & summer... The moment that it "feels" like you have the maximum amount of warmth, sunshine, growth, and all those things AHEAD of you in the annual cycle...
OK... That was my "touchy-feely" moment...
"I wish I could "see" something different, but it's just not there..."
ReplyDeletecertainly man, you know I'm a huge bear so I'm there, but hey, market is going to do what it's going to do, so I play along.
and, for the record, I'm still a huge bear and still pumped because also like Andy, when this move is over, I still very much believe we go down hard for a long time.
@McF
ReplyDeleteI was kind of lucky on FXP...
I managed to "catch" the bottom ($6)... Last week tho, I posted that I took profits on that (at $40.00 - which was an $8 share adjusted base)...
I knew I was leaving some money on the table, but these days I don't care anymore...
Small wins are GOOD here (like you with CAT)...
boy, banks aren't looking for a part this morning.
ReplyDeleteCV, working on my raised bed, too.. just added 5 bags of organic worm castings compost (new at costco).. what do you use for fertilizer? especially on your tomatoes? my tomatoes may be suffering from not enough sun and heat..
ReplyDelete@McF (10:22)
ReplyDeleteYes... I doubt it's going to be
"We May Never Pass This Way Again" (Seals & Crofts)
I's attach a YOU TUBE to that, but all there are are some hokey cover renditions...
C,
ReplyDeleteThe last several weeks I think "leaving money on the table" is the only smart trading strategy. Take your profits when you have them and move along.
the risk/reward to get heavy long just isn't there and we need confirmation with five down I think before getting too short.
that set-up in january was just too special, which figures.
oops, looking for a party this morning, that is.
ReplyDeleteoh, btw, if there are any other PSU football fans out there, well, lets hope they get a lot better btwn now and early fall. They looked terrible this weekend, the o-line especially.
ReplyDeleteoh, btw, Barron's has perhas a decent cover indicator this week, a bull driving a Bus with 12,000 on the electronic message above the bus and a bear pasted on the front of it as if it's been hit.
ReplyDeleteSantoli's column is good.
Johnny hour over. The 10:30 buyers are back. I see traders like GS at 150ish. Sheesh.
ReplyDeletehell, I'm long S&P now.
ReplyDeleteas much as it pains me to be.
I love trying to scalp pennies.
@karen
ReplyDeleteIf you want to DO IT YOURSELF a little (which, to me, is fun)...
Basically, your TOMATO compost meeds healthy doses of NITROGEN, PHOSPHATES, & POTASH...
PHOSPHOROUS
You can use bonemeal (it works well it is fairly slow release but also adds calcium too)
POTASSIUM
Because of where you live, you could have fun... Kelp meal is the best thing... Go down to the ocean you can just harvest it there...
While you're there, collect some seashells, and grind them up with your dried kelp...
Those 3 things alone add potassium, most micronutrients, chitin which beneficial fungus feed on which increases there numbers(these fungus will also eat insect eggs because most eggs contain chitin, calcium and magnesium).
It may be hard for you to keep the soil WARM enough there in California (tomatoes like EARLY WARM soil)...
You could built "heating systems" into your boxes (I'll tell you later how to do that)...
That's a good start...
great start! thanks, CV.. GS makes me want to throw up! but C is down..
ReplyDeletecheck out one of my last year longs, MON.
ReplyDeletethat thing is down over 20% for the year.
Ouch.
DD otoh is up about 20%. going to be interesting to watch those two battle in the ag. space.
Released on 4/27/2010 9:00:00 AM For Feb, 2010
ReplyDeletePrior Actual
10-city, not SA - M/M change -0.2 % -0.6 %
10-city, Seas. Adj. - M/M change 0.4 % 0.1 %
10-city, not SA - Yr/Yr change 0.0 % 1.5 %
Highlights
The Case-Shiller unadjusted home price indexes show deepening weakness with the composite 10 index down 0.6 percent in February to 156.82 (157.89 first reported). The unadjusted composite 20 index fell 0.9 percent. These results extend a long streak of declines and mark a step lower compared to January's declines of 0.2 percent for the 10 index and 0.4 percent for the 20.
When adjusted, the data still show weakness but to a much less degree with the composite 10 rising 0.1 percent to extend a long run of gains, but just barely, and with the 20 index down 0.1 percent to end a long run of gains. Whether adjusted or not, both show year-on-year improvement but only very marginal improvement: at plus 1.4 percent for the unadjusted 10 and at plus 1.5 percent for the adjusted 10.
Home prices appear to be in trouble, seen not only in today's report but also in last week's new home sales data for March. Another down move for home prices would further pinch homeowners and further increase foreclosures and distressed sales.
Released on 4/27/2010 7:45:00 AM For wk4/24, 2010
ReplyDeletePrior Actual
Store Sales - W/W change 0.2 % 0.2 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 4.6 % 5.5 %
Highlights
The sixth straight weekly gain, plus 0.2 percent in the April 24 week, and the greatest year-on-year rate of the recovery, plus 5.5 percent, aren't making ICSC-Goldman lower its April forecast. The report still sees full-month same-store sales at flat to minus 3.0 percent year-on-year. But sales will have to fall apart in the last week of the month if the target is going to be hit. The report describes traffic as robust and believes pent-up demand continues to be released. Redbook, which will be posted at 8:55 a.m. ET, has been showing much slower rates of year-on-year growth, at plus 2.6 percent in the April 17 week.
Bernanke in Bloomberg: “High levels of debt also decrease the ability of policy makers to respond to future economic and financial shocks,” Bernanke said. “A loss of investor confidence in the ability of a government to achieve fiscal sustainability can itself be a source of significant economic and financial instability.”
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ay7oW.wHxie4&pos=6
@ben: I made note of MON a week or so ago as well. Why down so much, I wonder?
ReplyDeleteTLT looking mighty stout this morning.
ReplyDeleteFrom Rosie this morning:
ReplyDeleteGoldman Sachs analysts estimate that the region will need over $200 billion (triple what is now being proposed) to avoid a debt default. Contagion risks are now spreading to Portugal (Greek bond yields have risen to 12-year highs and Lisbon-Frankfurt spreads have widened out to 227bps, the widest they have been since 1997). Flight-to-safety move underscored by the 2bp decline in German bund and U.S. Treasury yields overnight.
I'm not sure if anyone else has been charting some intl markets but if you look at the action in China, Brazil and some others, it helps to reinforce that in the short term some real strange shit is going on with the US markets.
ReplyDeletethey still won't be able to change the ultimate trend though, but they will try.
ben, do me a favor and go longer the spx. : )
ReplyDeleteI think its capital flows, Ben.
ReplyDeleteMy take is that the SPX is seeing money come in from the eurozone... however misguided that may be.
Manny,
ReplyDeletesocial mood primarily ;) but if you want to try and rationalize it, here's some deflation impact on MON for starters:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303720604575169613112710470.html?mod=WSJ_earnings_LEFTTopHeadlines
You know, I thought about your comment last night about the haircuts. The more I thought about it the more it sounded like a slow motion depression....if you know what I'm saying. There is a reason Wal Mart is still cutting prices.
I-man,
ReplyDeletemakes sense, you do have guys like JG out saying own super franchises such as KO. I'm pretty sure he's not the only guy thinking this way right now.
@ben: I hear you, but it seems like two different economies where the higher end (unemployment only 3% or so) seems to be doing OK, and thriving in some cases, while the middle to lower end is getting hammered (unemployment levels much higher), and are seeing prices go down.
ReplyDeleteTesting...Here we go again.
ReplyDelete@Ben
ReplyDeleteYou know BAMInvestor is calling for $12 on KO by 2014? It will be interesting in 3 years time what will become of their predictions.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-cuts-portugals-sovereign-ratings-to-a-a-2-2010-04-27-114570
ReplyDeleteI'm shocked!
Holy cow what a morning its been. Portugal downgraded. I didn't think Johnny would care. Perhaps the mood is changing
ReplyDeleteslam, lol, I love the market.
ReplyDelete@McHappy,
ReplyDelete$12, eh? You do realize that if P3 were to occur that nearly every stock in the DOW will trade at $3 or less right, most of them below $1? I've always enjoyed the prices up at the top of KD's site.
@Manny,
what makes you think there weren't two different economies during the GD? There were. There were plenty of people that prospered during that time, the masses suffered, your 97%.
This is one of those days. I am going to stop trading and watch Fabulous Fab on the TV.
ReplyDeletekeeping an eye on the long bond.
ReplyDeleteLB?
Great point, ben. Probably similar things playing out now too, perhaps.
ReplyDeleteNic, i was just about to click over to your blog to see what you were up to!
ReplyDeleteBeen working like a one arm paperclip. Time to stop before I give it all back!
ReplyDeleteWe are hedging our bond book like crazy at this level of 3.71% on 10y.
ReplyDeleteAfter all, the chance of the following: a change in FOMC language, a super hot jobs number or a GDP number > 3.0 is not insignificant.
Longer term we think rates stay low, economy stays slow, as these may be the last hot numbers posted for a while. But bonds seem rich here in the short term - Europe isn't going to melt down immediately, and the chance of an equity crash before the UK election seems slim to say the least. So we are betting big today.
I bought some crude Manny but the mood is weird today. Turnaround Tuesday may be delayed ...
ReplyDeleteall this and the EUR/USD hasn't even broken down yet...
ReplyDeleteThings could get fun... But that's probably too much to hope for...
"Been working like a one arm paperclip. Time to stop before I give it all back!"
ReplyDeletehaha, that's funny Nic. I'm close to getting stopped out, so much for the profit on CAT puts.
I'm so small on these trades I can laugh about it at least. Little 1-2% positions.
I don't think the FOMC language is going to change. Mr Market may be disappointed.
ReplyDeleteWhoa. Haven't seen this in a long time.
ReplyDeleteCV, speak of the devil...
ReplyDeleteYowsa. Run TLT, run.
ReplyDeletethat lower trendline around 1200 didn't offer too much support there, or any maybe.
ReplyDeleteSome chickens decided to do some clucking today. Cognos?
ReplyDeleteGreece is junk. what took so long.
ReplyDelete@Nic: Deny, Deny, Deny. Accept.
ReplyDeleteBulls (algos) better get this thing back up over 1201 and STEADY things out a little...
ReplyDeleteIn some abberational universe...
ReplyDeleteThere must be INTRINSIC value in Greek bonds...
Right McF? :-)
McF - 1% is a big position for me so I get you.
ReplyDeleteBut leverage in fx is 100:1
ReplyDeleteyeah...intrinsic value....lol
ReplyDeleteI've been asking myself the last couple weeks, who's buying their paper even now? Are you really being compensated at these levels for taking that kind of risk?
GIB baby!
Hey guys, I heard though, if you bet against Greece you will lose your shirt.
ReplyDeleteI say, who needs a shirt when you could trade in a snuggie.
Nic,
ReplyDeleteyeah, I wasn't using much leverage on any of these things, I'm break-even on the two trades now, ha.
I've been managing position size big time since early February turned out to be a bust.
Not sure what to make of this just yet - auction ahead at 1pm and there is a shitload of 2, 5, 7y to take down this week. There is no buying of T bills, so we are not in a panic at this point.
ReplyDeleteSnuggie? diapers might be more appropriate today
ReplyDelete@ben: Some clown in a nice spiffy shirt and tie with slicked back hair was on Bloomie way back basically guaranteeing that Greece paper was a "good buy". Will he have to admit he was wrong? Probably not.
ReplyDeleteThe decided upon "integer" used to do the REVERSE split on "C" is changing by the minute...
ReplyDeleteif the running triangle is correct we should bounce to about 1215 now. we'll see.
ReplyDeleteP3 should come like a thief in the night, most people have already given up on it.
@Nic (11:42)
ReplyDeleteYeah... As happens, it appears that there was a MIXUP in the translation...
The Greek PM DIDN'T say...
"You'll lose your SHIRT"
He said
"You'll lose your SH*T"
Nic,
ReplyDelete11:42.
you are on fire today. ha!
Manny,
I don't mind people making bad calls, it's part of being in the market, but saying stuff that is worthless is a "good buy" is something different. And no, he'll never come on and say he was wrong...come on.
@ben: Exactly my points, ben. And he was SO sure of himself too.
ReplyDelete@McF (11:45)
ReplyDeleteAs much as I hate to admit... I agree with you there...
I did a little "hedgie" here against my SHORT SPY position...
We'll see where any bounce takes us...
It's a good day to own a really large bond position....
ReplyDeleteOf course the hedge is not looking too healthy just at the moment... but it's hard to see our fearless leaders not padding the GDP number.
@McF
ReplyDeleteThere's a chance that we could go to 1178 and start and EXPANDING WEDGE...
Who knows?
Loving my really large bond position. Have been pretty damn patient too.
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteyeah, I'm wondering, I can't tell right now on the short term charts if this is impulsive, still looks corrective to me at this point so I'd give the bias to the bulls.
I'm back to watching...:)
CORRECTION:
ReplyDeleteIt's NOT a good day to own a really large GGB position....
Those sell-side dicks on the TV are hilarious when they are trying to suck in the unwary investors. You wait for the muni bloodbath - that will make Greece look like chicken feed, because they are so widely owned in US.
A good one at Jesse's.. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/04/sp-daily-chart.html
ReplyDelete"Loving my really large bond position.
ReplyDeleteHave been pretty damn patient too."
Yup. It's a very good day.
We now have on our largest ever hedge. It's what we do....
@mcF
ReplyDeleteWell - with that last little "tick" down on the 1 minute charts, we got the first DIVERGENCE on the MACD...
We'll see if it means anything...
mcHAPPY is green on all positions (FAZ and FXP).... WTF????
ReplyDeleteThe One Chart that Explain the Entire Stock Market Rally
ReplyDeleteAn appropriate quote:
ReplyDeleteIn an address to Congressional Democrats in May of 1939, Henry Morgenthau, Franklin Roosevelt's Treasury Secretary, lamented: "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and if I am wrong ... somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises ... I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started ... And an enormous debt to boot!"
Similar sentiments have probably been expressed in the Japanese language over the past decade, and yet the same ill-conceived policies continue. (Steve Saville)
http://www.safehaven.com/article/16565/beware-of-analysts-bearing-equations
OT:
ReplyDelete"10-year-old survives sting from world's most venomous creature"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100427/hl_afp/australiaanimaljellyfish
That's funny... I thought Lloyd Blankfein was the world's most venomous creature... Gonna have to go check my references...
They have got to be kidding. Update: Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) reiterates "Outperform" rating on Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) http://bit.ly/dc7fz9
ReplyDelete@karen (11:59)
ReplyDeleteThat chart goes hand in hand with my THREAD POST last week where I showed the most important of the DOW stocks hitting ALL TIME highs, or 2007 HIGHS...
Great link, Karen on retail. Awesome, in fact. That really puts things in perspective.
ReplyDelete"I thought Lloyd Blankfein was the world's most venomous creature..."
ReplyDeleteI resent that. I can't stand these hearings. Viniar told me that GS plans to use the INANITY DEFENSE. IOW, I didn't understand these CDOs, CDO2s, CDSs etc. I know it's lame but it works most of the time...
Tested the weekly 3LB mid at 1191.94. It's held so far. A close below that would make the weekly reversal more possible.
ReplyDeleteFWIW -
ReplyDeleteIf anyone wants to use CV as a "contrarian indicator"...
My only OPEN position (as of this morning) was SHORT SPY...
At 1192, I 'hedged' that a little... (long SSO)
The last time I 'hedged' that SPY (in this way was on January 22nd) at 1090... It seemed like a good move at the time, but I eventually took off the hedge at 1076 (on the move that eventually went to 1044)...
Translation: I WAS EARLY
Read Jim the Realtor's top two posts!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bubbleinfo.com/
Thanks, AR, I think we are gonna get it..
ReplyDeleteCV
ReplyDeleteAtleast you weren't early in June '09 like a certain someone I know *cough*me*cough*
@karen
ReplyDeleteMore on retail...
OTOH - It makes sense (retrospectively) that RETAIL is at 2007 highs...
You can buy a lot of GAP jeans with the savings from not paying your mortgage... And hardly any of GAP's competitors are even in business anymore...
@karen
ReplyDeleteYou should be thanking ME
I'm the one who put the hedge on :-)
You should name a HOLIDAY in my honor!
@bob
ReplyDeleteLikin' that EUR/USD now? :-)
@McHappy
ReplyDeleteActually - I PRIDE myself a little on the move in June '09...
I-Man should remember this (we were all at BR's)...
I "covered" my shorts right on 879...
I've missed a few turns since then, but I got that one right...
EUR-USD 1.3227 -0.0156 -1.16%
ReplyDeleteEUR-JPY 122.8350 -2.8970 -2.30%
The beginning of the end for carry. Forced carry unwind within weeks?
Do the B/Ds REALLY want to eat all those 2y at 0.95% ???
ReplyDeleteSurely they don't.... we don't want them....!
We may sell a few 5y at the close today.
Bond bull - but it's a good day to raise some cash.
THE REPORT is going to be a DOOZY.
ReplyDelete@LB
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to the BOND WRAP today...
Tell us what's on your mind...
@LB
ReplyDeleteMusical Accompaniment...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ss6vUraHFIw
Lovely day. Our biggest positions in FI are equivalents of AGG and TLT. Now we have a massive hedge on - you have to fade massive moves in bond markets b/c they are somewhat rare.
ReplyDeleteLet's see what the auction brings on. 2y yields under the coupon? Only the Greeks could love that deal.
Today is the kind of a day when BOVE and the fat bloke on FOX BIZ would come on and say that (GREEK BONDS, BEAR STEARNS, LEHMAN) looks like a COMPELLING VALUE at THESE LEVELS.
Charting JNK, anyone? That will be a key breakdown when it comes. Not yet, though...
Anyone following Copper? Fell out of bed this morning. Copeer, that is :-)
ReplyDeletePrashant
Anyone watching Fab TV? This woman is a pitbull
ReplyDeleteI am following copper.. i have a copper/gold miner that is red today..
ReplyDeleteI don't even know what Fab TV is..
ReplyDeleteIts the GS hearings on TV
ReplyDelete@LB
ReplyDeleteI do follow JNK
But today's move basically MIRRORS the SPX move (on a fibo basis)...
Not watching the political theatre but I am sure it is fun.
ReplyDeleteWatch this auction... this is important. If yields dip lower here, then it's Katy bar the door for us. We are looking for a drift higher for Treasury yields into the close.
@Nic
ReplyDeleteForget the GOLDMAN HEARING... And Get yourself into some Golden Earring
okay, that is what i thot you meant at first about Fab.. Fabrice... Bess Levine's live blogging was apparently so good that the site is down!
ReplyDeleteBid/Cover 3.03
ReplyDeleteTotal Amount $44 B
Yield Awarded 1.024%
That's about what you'd expect under these conditions. B/Ds will be unloading this batch pretty sharpish, so you might look for another brief dip in yields this afternoon so they can sell some of these puppies. I mean, I can't see anyone wanting to hold the short end.
I'm watching FabTV
ReplyDeletei have no sense of humor today.. partly because i'm gun shy of buy the dip and partly the FOMC announcement tomorrow.. and GS green again.. makes me ill.
ReplyDeleteOr... If you have a "thing" about Natalie Portman the way CV does, you could "tune into" this...
ReplyDeleteKaren, I miss your shoes and lovely feet. Is that wrong?
ReplyDelete2 YR Auction
ReplyDelete% take down bid2cover
PD 47.5% 4.51
DB 21.4% 2.07
IB 31.0% 1.48
Total bid2cover 3.03
Interest rate 1%
HY 1.024%
Doug Kass just said buy GS ...
ReplyDeleteThanks for the tune CV
Karen @ 1:08
ReplyDelete“i'm gun shy of buy[ing] the dip”
Would you be deeply offended if I were to use you as a contrary indicator?
The Darjeeling Limited, such a tease....
ReplyDeleteHmmm, just read something about LIBOR, which I had not looked at in some time. These last few weeks there, if that continues The Wizard is toast.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteIt was LIBOR which blew out right during the October 2008 post Lehman crisis...
DL, pls do but exactly how do you read it? does that mean the dip will or won't be bot? i gather you think the dip will be bot..
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI said this morning...
I bought the dip (as a hedge) at 1192...
anything over 1206 and I'm going to start putting trailing stops on that tho -FWIW
From John Murphy's 1:16 Market Message: It appears that investors still have an appetite for fixed income assets despite all of the recent advice to abandon them in favor of stocks. Then again, most of that advice is coming from Wall Street which makes it immediately suspect.
ReplyDeleteDB's bought an additional 7.6% over the previous auction. The PD's and IB's bought -3.9% and -3.8% less respectively.
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteI just think that SPX will get back up to at least 1210 before any meaningful correction sets in. Not a big move, I realize, but something.
In honour of a rare down day (two in a row even)I agree, the shoes should come out.
ReplyDeleteYes, the shoes should come out.
ReplyDeletePossibly even the feet as well.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteLOL on the Market Message. I wonder what people use 2y Ts for, perhaps to balance books full of short-term EM debt? Or Greek debt...? I can't for the life of me think of one compelling reason to buy the short end.
Also FWIW...
ReplyDeleteThe DXY is at the SAME level it was at BOTH at the time of the Lehman collapse (Sep '08), and at the March ('09) lows in SPX...
Shoes. It's unanimous. So elegant...
ReplyDeleteThe DXY is at the SAME level it was at BOTH at the time of the Lehman collapse (Sep '08), and at the March ('09) lows in SPX...
ReplyDeleteFascinating. This feels very much like some kind of INFLECTION POINT.
I should say OCTOBER '08 (post Lehman)
ReplyDelete@Karen
ReplyDelete"and GS green again"
They had quite a big fall. Two weekends ago, the Sunday after GS fell from $184 to $160, I was talking with bull market back, good times again, buy and holder who said, "Buy it tomorrow." He would have been right, it bounced to $163 next day. But then it went to $157 by Friday last week and of course it started this week at $152. Of course there will be some dip buyers, however, it is only up 1% today. If we are to have any significant downtrend, financials are going to have to lead the way. We may be watching a little bit of slope of hope in action where those slipping down are frantically waving their arms trying to catch their balance. Just my thoughts.
@LB
ReplyDeleteActually my eyes are a little funny...
I was reading the charts on a longer term basis (therefore I saw "M", and was thinking MARCH)...
It was the same level in MAY '09 (as October '08)...
Nevertheless, DXY did take a dip down near its present level just after the rally kicked off at the LB bottom...
That clears it up (and all the levels are very close)...
@mcHappy
ReplyDeleteYou love that "slope of hope" expression, don't you? :-)
Spring is here, summer is just ahead. Time for Haircuts!!
ReplyDelete“We assigned a recovery rating of ‘4’ to Greece’s debt issues, indicating our expectation of ‘‘average’’ (30%-50%) recovery for debtholders in the event of a debt restructuring or payment default,” S&P said in the statement.
SLOPE OF HOPE rhymes with ROPE-A-DOPE.
ReplyDeleteCute, eh, JOHNNY?
CV
ReplyDeleteI really do. That and "Plan your trade and trade your plan." lol.
Lord Blankfein says
ReplyDelete"I enjoy ROPING DOPES... Yee Haw! Ride em cowboy!"
CV
ReplyDeleteI think it is because I have experienced first hand. It really resonates with with me.
CV likes...
ReplyDelete"With my mind on my money and my money on my mind..."
More "stimulus" (read: borrowing) from China in the offing? What if all nations just borrow until infinity? Does they cancel everything out and keep the game going in some perverse way? ;-)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-announce-new-4-trillion-yuan-stimulus
A classic from Bess:
ReplyDelete"10:26: Apparently Goldman didn’t just hurt its clients, it hurt everyone in the world. Take a moment right now to show us on the doll where Goldman touched you."
She's so good when she is twisted !!
KAREN must be in the shoe closet....
ReplyDeleteNEW THREAD UP
ReplyDeleteWe're fast approaching "comment mayhem", so I put a new thread up...
Like a good "B" movie producer...
I offer you... THE SEQUEL...
World not ending. Ts selling a little bit. Told you so....
ReplyDeleteNext week, OK? Into the long bond auctions, we'll end the world.
Promise.
That is a classic, lefty!
ReplyDeleteTheir reputation has to be taking an enormous hit right now. I know everyone seems to be blowing this off, but how do they stop this freight train at this point? They should have quietly settled before it got to this point but arrogance is doing them in. Maybe they thought instead of "doing God's work" that they WERE God?
ReplyDelete