Of course that idea helps some and hurts others (depending on how you're positioned, I suppose)...
CV keeps waking up and try to find SOMETHING, ANYTHING, that would shock equity markets back to their senses, but we seem to be stuck in an endless cycle of "Lather, Rinse, Repeat" (and frankly, there ain't much RINSING going on - as the case may be).
What makes it difficult for BEARS (if there are any), is that for almost the entire year they've been conditioned to see "short covering" on Fridays in anticipation of "Melt-Up Monday"... I'm DEFINITELY not making the case that it will happen again here, but there are Pavlov's, & there are dogs...
If you happen to be the latter, chances are that one day you envision yourself having this conversation with your friends, but today may not be that day.
Creepy that Pavlov bears a striking resemblance to Bernanke!
If you've been reading the comment section of this blog the past week, you might recall various "psychological" and/or "technical" numbers being tossed out... DOW 11,000, SPX 1200; plus some more technically oriented numbers like the 1220 range on the S&P... Keep in mind that even the HIGHER numbers are only around 3% away from where we are right now... Markets can move 3% INTRADAY on euphoria... They can also sell off to the same degrees on panic...
It seems the RomAmericans like their Gladiator Games to be more spectacular as time progresses, so it appears that TPTB seem content to drive us headlong into what will end up being an increasingly more spectacular crash...
Have fun while it lasts!... And you know what I say? Don't even bother to stow your tray table in the upright position for landing... Live life on the edge!... Do you really think stowing your tray table is all that important as the "wizard" engineers his SOFT LANDING?
Or, if all this bothers you? Just go check out to see what Tiger is doing.
Look! Tiger is in contention! Let the cussing & club throwing begin!
" "short covering" on Fridays in anticipation of "Melt-Up Monday"
ReplyDeleteAs BR says, we humans love to make that mistake of extrapolating trends indefinitely.
It seems Feb. 16 was a real turning point up. This is most definitely maximum pain for bears. The fall out of course is going to be painful. I don't remember who posted this link before but that you kindly, I've been using it lately:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.apartofny.com/2010/03/cramer-vs-prechter-from-an-elliott-wave-perspective/
I like how he does a bullish count and a bearish count.
Ben, AndyT (if you are out there) and other's versed in EW, what do you think of this guy's work?
http://www.apartofny.com/
b22-
ReplyDeleteI know you and I may not see this the same way- but I do believe there is a tacit agreement between the Fed and the market makers about expectations on market movement-
and even if it appears as blatantly obvious- I do not think they care-
also- treasuries auctions- my guess is the Fed and/or other central banks are there every step of the way- always ready to buy- if necessary through some means or mechanism-
I do like your sociononomics view- in that the market is dictated by kinetic energy coming from people making choices based on their mood/perceptions-
on the other hand- TA- not sure it can be trusted as an indicator- with my view that there are too many other machinations at work to force a specific outcome- at least in the short term
McHappy,
ReplyDeletefollowing the rules of Elliot, there is no proper way to count this move from the March 09 lows as "impulsive" so that bull count, imo, is nothing to pay attention to. It is sort of funny what he's doing there though (Kramer vs. Elliot) Alternation isn't a hard and fast rule, but it's a guideline that I'd normally put some weight on, and there is not alteration in the count among several other issues with the structure of that count. Internally for example outside the count, things just don't match up a/d's, volume, etc.
I think AT feels the same way, or so I gather from his posts on Dan's site, you just cant count impulse on this move up. But, let him answer if he sees your post. I think both of us are looking for new highs in the nearer term due to the count but I'm not counting this as primary one up, and I think Caldera's count is even worse.
I posted on here the other day, the triple zig zag form is pretty textbook at this point, triple zz's are very rare, time is the hardest element of the wave pattern to figure out, form is unfailing, price targets, well, EWI had several other price targets higher than we are now many months ago, they didn't think we'd hit them, but that's not because they didn't think they could happen, just gave them a lower probability.
Maybe you and I should just get back to shoe dropping.
"U.S. Federal Reserve officials again reiterated their commitment to low interest rates for "an extended period" on Thursday, given the fragile nature of the economic recovery and suggested any reduction in the size of the central bank's balance sheet could take as long as two decades. - CNBC
ReplyDeletewow- 2 decades- it's only a fifth of a century- looks like they understand the battle they are in-
has it occurred to BB and the other Fed presidents that maybe a depression is the inverse of a bubble expansion- so maybe the latter is the cause of the former?
but it's interesting- euphoric booms based on silly non-sensical assumptions are always welcome
ahab,
ReplyDeleteI've noticed at certain times during this rally, most often after our short and shallow downturns that then led to new highs, that your comment (not you in particular) became very common on the boards, which is that TA/Elliot/Fill in the Blank, just can't work the same because of manipulation.
Not to get into some big socionomic thing but my simple thoughts are:
1. I can find headline after headline for nearly the past 100 years making the same claims, yet, I've watched E-wave call turning points that virtually nobody else saw, and they are typically the first one's to see it.
2. There is no doubt at all in my mind that there is manipulation going on all over the place right now. No doubt. That said, you know where I stand, they cannot change the overall trend, or as Andy might say "nature will take over in due time"
Until then we just play the hand we are dealt, painful as it may be for those that understand what is actually going on here.
If people are inclined to buy this theory though, that the Fed can control it all, then really, they have no business whatsoever putting even $1 into anything but a safe, otherwise their investment decisions are based on what exactly besides emotion?
@ahab
ReplyDeleteAuctions?
The Fed buys it, then swaps currency with other central banks. Then the dollars to counter party central banks push them out based on demand. The dollars then flow around the world (never to be seen on the Fed's balance sheet)...
Until someday...
@ahab
ReplyDelete2 decades = the time it will take for most of the WORTHLESS mortgages that are being held "off balance sheet", or at PAR will have reached their maturity...
So it's no more than a "calculated" statement...
It's like the Toronto Blue Jays saying "we'll keep the roof open for baseball games - until September when it starts to get chilly up here - then we'll close it"...
LOL - That Bernanke! What a genius!
who says the reduction of the size of the balance sheet is ultimately up to them. Was the expansion entirely up to them?
ReplyDeleteI think not.
I actually think the dollar rally serves as a pretty good example for my 8:43 post. Beside elliot wave, was anyone saying the dollar would bottom at or around 74.50?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so. though I do think Faber and J. Rogers were saying they were looking at the dollar around then. As I recall, most people said if it went below that, it would go lower, and that: the Fed would keep it low.
Not working out for them.
@McF (dollar)
ReplyDeleteI've been on record as saying the same thing about the Euro...
Back in February, not many people were on board with the idea of 1.29...
GS issued a "price target" of 1.40 and a STOP LOSS at 1.34 (because it looked oversold)...
Oops!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/top-us-banks-reportedly-masked-risk-levels-2010-04-09?dist=beforebell
ReplyDeleteFrom the "I'm shocked!" file.
CV @ 8:43
ReplyDeleteI guess that's my point- if everyone is playing the game the world over . . .then what?
and another impression- the folks on Wall Street and their cheer leaders couldn't care less about the future- much like Kudlow- where a rising stock market is the answer- and the only answer needed to show we are on the right path to prosperity-
however that may be achieved
Trading on EMOTION = "Listening to CENTRAL BANKERS flapping their gums about soverign debt crises being 'contained'"...
ReplyDeleteBen,
ReplyDeleteI know you've been talking about time being the most unpredictable component of EW. I was wondering about length of time for duration of waves. Is it possible for a corrective wave like P2 we are currently in to extend beyond the length of P1 in duration i.e. P1 was approximately 15 months and was part of the dominant trned; P2 is 13 months today; can P2 extend beyond 15 months in EW?
Hopefully that makes sense.
@ahab
ReplyDelete"I guess that's my point- if everyone is playing the game the world over . . .then what?"
And that's exactly MY point (everyone playing the game)...
What happens when a secret becomes UNCONTAINED? If you have a secret, it's best to keep it to yourself...
If you require "others" to help you COVER UP the secret, then the odds rise exponentially that something, somewhere (something you never expected) is going to trip you up... This leads to more deceit, followed by more "cover-ups" until it gets completely out of hand...
Too many Pandora's... Too many boxes... = BAD
@ahab
ReplyDeleteThese days are reminding me of Enron - on a much larger scale. The fraud and lies don't matter until they matter. Mish had an interesting post "Where is the line?"
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/04/where-is-line.html
Well if the US Treasury Auctions last week had long tails, spare a thought for China this week, with two failed auctions:
ReplyDeletehttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/04/09/199251/chinas-two-terrible-t-bill-auctions/
"The Federal Reserve artfully avoided a second Depression by being open to generating and testing new ideas, the central bank’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said Thursday evening." The New York Times
ReplyDeleteit appears that BB is certain of all outcomes because he has all the answers
LB checking in early today to report that the GREEK CRISIS has been resolved...
ReplyDeleteGreek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced to the press that there is now no problem with Greek debt due to the use of ingenious American financial engineering.
"So, what we have done in fact, is, first we TRANSFERED half of our debt to our Citi Card at a new TEASER RATE of 0.75%, using these handy-dandy Citi Chex, so we reduced the rate on that significantly. For the other half, we took out a 1-yr adjustable HELOC on the Acropolis with JP Morgan Chase although we had to buy a few shots of Ouzo for the appraiser. This has resulted in STABILITY of the Eurozone economy with our credit being upgraded to AAA at Moody's as of this morning."
CV: You know the ho's love it when I cuss and throw clubs.
ReplyDeletemcHappy-
ReplyDeletethanks for the Mish link-
no doubt that those in charge aren't going to put themselves in chains
LB you are joking!! IMF may be called as early as this weekend ...
ReplyDeleteLB
ReplyDeleteWe haven't heard how the twins are lately or Brian/fellow colleagues. Hopefully all is well with everyone.
Best Headline of the Week:
ReplyDeleteTyler Durden reports: Greek Curve Goes Apeshit: Bloomberg Reports 3 Month Bid At 21.3%
The Beck Quick/Erin Burnett version: DOW 11,000! Come on people! keep buying stocks!
@ahab
ReplyDeleteBernanke seems to get the words "avoided" and "delayed" confused...
I guess they don't teach that at Princeton/Harvard/or MIT...
@CV 9:24 ... European traders busy hedging some weekend event risk ...
ReplyDelete@LB
ReplyDeleteThe attempts by Greece to "sweep their problems under the carpet" may fail...
Don't they know the Arabs have FLYING CARPETS?
@Nic
ReplyDelete"Event RISK"/"Event HORIZON"
I guess to some it all sounds the same... :-)
here is another thing that cracks me up-
ReplyDeletethe scuttlebutt being that the Democrats are going to have their ass handed to them in the November elections-
let's assume it's true-
but so what? The Republican's will do what exactly?
Americans- get angry and show their disapproval by voting in the very folks who will do the exact same things-
boy- we sure showed them-
we've come a long way since the Revolutionary War-
tame and docile
EVENT HORIZON
ReplyDeleteThe most commonly known example of an event horizon is defined around general relativity's description of a black hole, a celestial object so dense that no matter or radiation can escape its gravitational field. This is sometimes described as the boundary within which the black hole's escape velocity is greater than the speed of light. A more accurate description is that within this horizon, all lightlike paths (paths that light could take), and hence all paths in the forward light cones of particles within the horizon, are warped so as to fall farther into the hole. Once a particle is inside the horizon, moving into the hole is as inevitable as moving forward in time (and can actually be thought of as equivalent to doing so, depending on the spacetime coordinate system used).
Let's be clear. A bailout would be a bailout of German and French banks. Nobody really cares about Greece, per se.
ReplyDeleteCV, a 4% 10-year note is the event horizon during ZIRP.
@LB
ReplyDeletemmm hmmm...
Oh... & Way to go BIG RED!
Medley (ECB) is just out saying deal has been done for Greece.
ReplyDelete@Nic
ReplyDelete"Medley (ECB) is just out saying deal has been done for Greece."
Expect Mr. Market to test that theory forthwith...
CV-
ReplyDeleteand also-
"In principle, if you could get within a few millimeters of an Event Horizon before escaping, you could essentially time travel years or millenia into the future as measured by outside clocks. According to your clock, however, perhaps only a few hour or days actually elapsed."
@McHappy,
ReplyDeleteI asked Andy that same question about two months ago "do you think that wave 2 can be longer than 1 and how many times have you seen it"
His response was pretty simple, which is that it could, so we have to be prepared for it.
I don't know if you caught his (AT's) last Scribd that talked a lot about corrections and showed some fractal representation of them but I thought it was one of his best ever.
McH: We will hear from JOHNNY and BRIAN when the BBQ season begins. I am sure BRIAN will have an investor cookout on Memorial Day. Perhaps some Greeks will bring their roadshow to Fraudfield County to sell some sovereign debt to JOHNNY and other Seekers of Yield.
ReplyDeleteThe Twins are keeping out of sight since their Tryst with Tiger was revealed in the National Enquirer. They are feeling "used" and "hurt", claiming Tiger was "cheap" and took them to Outback Steakhouse for a Blooming Onion, which they had to share before a Menage a Trois in the back of his SUV, a bit uncomfortable with the baby seat....
Event Horizon
ReplyDeletethat movie scared the crap out of me
@ahab
ReplyDelete"In principle, if you could get within a few millimeters of an Event Horizon before escaping, you could essentially time travel years or millenia into the future"
CV hereby authorizes that the US Capitol building be immediately RAZED to the ground, and reconstructed in its NEW LOCATION (within a few millimeters of an EVENT HORIZON)...
That way, these people could witness first hand the fruits of their labors...
"Bernanke seems to get the words "avoided" and "delayed" confused..."
ReplyDeleteno doubt
I say potato and you say potatoe
ReplyDeleteevent risk / event horizon
CV @ 9:41-
ReplyDeletethat's funny(-:!!
they may be sadly disappointed however
Hmm....
ReplyDeleteThe JOHNNY MINUTE today....?
LB thinks they may have to SELL EM today, so they can BID EM UP into the ALCOA earnings at the close on MOMO Monday.
I am short, and if I can make a few BUCKYS then I am out and home at lunch before traders turn to watching Tiger highlights...
@Nic
ReplyDeleteOnly Dan Quayle says "potatoe"...
Dan Quayle is NOT to be confused with CV! :-)
Nic,
ReplyDelete9:08, very interesting, any thoughts on the implications? I haven't read the link yet, did you see an impact in FX?
no- Dan Quayle is the only one who says Potatoe
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeleteI had basically the same plan today, try to cash out early on a few shorts and I'm going home.
I took C's advice and slept in today as well.
Rolling my eyes (and yawning):
ReplyDeleteU.S. stocks resume slow push toward Dow 11,000 mark
04/09/2010 09:44:11 AM
Tiger looked huge yesterday as in muscle wise, not sure if he just put on weight or what. My boy Furyk did not look good, +8 I think.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of Tiger, this might be worth a read for some, they discussed it at length in the last socionomics release:
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/04/08/Will-Tiger-Woods--Initial-Comeback-be-Short-lived.aspx
godammit CV-
ReplyDeletestealing my thunder again I see(-:
wow- my last post-
ReplyDeletea post so nice-
I posted it twice-
sheesh
On the subject of Dan Quayle... That gets CV to thinking...
ReplyDeleteWhy the UPROAR over Sara Palin (NOT and endorsement mind you - just a conjecture) in 2008?
When you think about it, the US has an "inglorious past" with regards to VICE PRESIDENTS...
- Dan Quayle
- Spiro Agnew
- Andrew Johnson (only President, besides Clinton, ever to be IMPEACHED)
- Joe Biden
- Walter Mondale
I mean... COME ON!?!
Nelson Rockefeller!
ReplyDeleteMedley is a thinktank thingy. Just came out and said ECB has done deal for Greece and price action has rocketed in EUR. It won't last, Greece is not the only cockroach.
ReplyDeleteAny FX'ers here, the price action in EURCHF is not the SNB today but Sh*ttygroups stops :)
Great link from Nic on previous thread:
ReplyDeleteMajor banks have masked their risk levels in the past five quarters by temporarily lowering their debt just before reporting it to the public, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
From Rosie today:
ReplyDelete"No doubt that this last leg of the rally has been breathtaking; however, the primary trend in the U.S. is one of deflation or disinflation, which means an ongoing emphasis on income-generating securities and assets are critical"
Nic,
ReplyDeleteCramer was on last night saying no-one cares about Greece - just buy effing retail stocks b/c of the recovery. He even used my line: "Greece is The Word". Wonder if Cramer reads Macro Man?
Morning Rastas,
ReplyDeleteJust caught up with the night thread... jeez, CV how come you never told me you were so "multifaceted"? ;)
BTW, I replied at Dread last night, we can continue that discussion at your convenience.
So... whose buying SPX at 1185 later this morning? Anyone? Anyone?
b22-
ReplyDeletedid you see Tiger on the cover of Vanity Fair a few months back-
http://origin.wowowow.com/files/imagecache/300x/kristinfritz/2010_0105_vanity_fair_tiger_woods.jpg
he's not yesterday's Tiger-
I heard he changed his name to the Nefarious T.I.G.E.R
C,
ReplyDeleteYou left off Cheney.
"I think Barack Obama is a one-term President."
dick cheney
Stocks are ignoring the rally in EUR it seems. Gold is not and neither are spreads in euroland
ReplyDelete@karen (9:53)
ReplyDeleteThat's all the REPO 105 stuff...
TD has been on that like "white on rice" for some time now... WSJ is late to the party...
@McF (9:55)
ReplyDeleteOh sorry... I was mistaken in thinking that CHENEY , in fact, WAS the President...
My error! Sorry for the mixup :-)
K.
ReplyDelete35 minutes left in the JOHNNY HOUR. Monday they will shoot for 12000 on the Dow thingy that we don't actually ever look at.
Alcoa isn't critical, we need to see a few earnings before Mr Market will make a call.
ahab,
ReplyDeleteI did see that
at first glance I thought, 2Pac is really alive!
""The only thing that comes to a sleeping man is dreams."
2Pac
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteOK... I'll be stopping by Dread this morning then...
Ok, C, that's a valid point. 9:57.
ReplyDelete"Stocks are ignoring the rally in EUR it seems"
ReplyDeleteThis means the CARRY MERCHANTS are sitting on their hands, Nic. JOHNNY is on his own out there. No wonder volume has been tiny.
Cramer likes karen's J. Crew too!
ReplyDeletestocks have noticed now I think .. oh well
ReplyDeletetighten up the stops on yet another ill-fated crude short
@LB
ReplyDelete"No wonder volume has been tiny."
Expect the occasional downdraft... (Lloyd and St. Jamie don't seem to mind to carve a few shavings off the cheese wheel in those moments)...
A great trader knows when to take a loss, or sit on his/her hands.
ReplyDeletecan someone please post the link for the online golf again? Muchos ...
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking there could be a nice shot at a long in USO with a stop tucked a little below 41.5.
ReplyDeleteLooks like it might take a stab at 47.
Found it:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.masters.com/en_US/console/console.html?ts=1270752133779&video=ac&syn=&db=false&ref=www.masters.com/en_US/index.html&alt=
gotta roll-
ReplyDeleteall have a "most excellent" day-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irtsm7mLG5k
FXI almost at 44.44
ReplyDeleteI think I heard, SOMEWHERE that the number #4 is considered by the Chinese to be very unlucky...
So... 4 "4's"
As sheep boy would say "BBBBAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHDDDDD!"
C, fxi, ugh, thanks for the reminder.
ReplyDelete8 = prosperity is my understanding.
ReplyDeleteLast night I was exploring a site called realtytrac.com. You type in a town or zip code and view how many Pre-Foreclosures, Auctions, Bank-Owned or even Homes For Sale there are. If you are not a subscriber you can't get the exact address, but you can "Map It." What I saw was so frightening that I can only describe it as standing on a sand bar and watching a tidal wave cresting in front of you.
ReplyDeleteIn one of my housing blogs.. a $2 million deduction was noted in beautiful Emerald Cove.. bring the home down to $9.9.. which means the guy down the street from me needs to lower his price from 9.9 to $5 million.. which is where I always thot it should be.. not the $15 mil his original $15 mil list price.
Oh, and what took me to Realtytrac in the first place, was a graph I saw of the Number of Homes with Loans of $5 or More Scheduled for Forecluse Auction
@Ben
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reply. I did look back at his latest, page 3 would take us in to the latter part of the summer.
@LB
Thanks for the update. Looking forward to hearing about the Bar-Bee and I hope the twins regain form soon.
This PGA site seems to be the fastest, although they screw up often!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.majorschampionships.com/masters/2010/scoring/
Tough day for Sandy Lyle, +8 after 5 today. Can't think of that happening to any um... golfers around here, eh, C?
Karen
ReplyDeleteSimilar topic but looking at the Primary Dealers: Primary Dealers Have Collectively Engaged In Repo 105 And Quarter End Book Cooking - zerohedge
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_in_Chinese_culture#Eight
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_in_Chinese_culture#Four
C: The Mighty REDS were tremendous yesterday. Even LUCAS scored. TWO for El Niño, with STEVIE G and DIRK both outstanding.
ReplyDeleteIsn't it wonderful that we live in a world that turns out to be almost ENTIRELY FRAUDULENT from top to bottom?
ReplyDeleteKD has the Greece story in the forefront as well...
ReplyDeletehttp://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2174-Theyre-Done-Greece.html
---
But Cramer says it's OK - Go back to buying stocks!
@LB
ReplyDeleteI think the extra helping of "haggis" did Sandy Lyle in...
I meant Number of Homes with Loans of $5 MILLION or more, obviously, scheduled for foreclosure auction..
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteThe $1-5M band was a world of Avarice, Greed and Invincibility.
Those same people are now in a world of Hurt, Shame and Denial.
Bonfire of the Vanities. PART DEUX.
ECB SAID TO CALL GOVERNING COUNCIL TELECONFERENCE TONIGHT
ReplyDelete"Event Horizon"
ReplyDeleteOooh... that should be interesting, Nic.
ReplyDeleteFriday night???
CV, KD has 4 great posts this morning. The longer this goes on, I'm not sure the nickname "Krazy Karl" is appropriate *with regards to financial matters*. In the fullness of time, MSM may express his levels of frustration, of course years late.
ReplyDeleteI think Tiger is carrying his haggis in his paunch
ReplyDeleteI wonder how much of Tigre's cardio regimen was built around ambien sex with cocktail waitresses and strippers?
ReplyDeleteHe did look a bit out of shape... still got the swing tho.
MSM always gets the story. After it's over...
ReplyDeleteDo you remember when they actually reported, instead of reading the real journalism in the blogosphere?
Holy flickering tickers! Did something just hit the wires?
ReplyDeleteGREECE DOWNGRADE
ReplyDeleteHow slow was that
@Nic
ReplyDelete"ECB SAID TO CALL GOVERNING COUNCIL TELECONFERENCE TONIGHT"
Do you think they'll invite ALICE too?
I was beginning to think Nic moved markets.
ReplyDeleteWow who just took profits? That 1-min dive on the S&P was insane.
ReplyDeletePaunch is good for golf, it anchors the swing and lowers the centre of gravity. Mark Calcavecchia? Angel Cabrera. Almost all golfers used to be fat. The Golden Bear was definitely paunchy in his prime.
ReplyDeleteNow maybe that is LB's golf problem - too slim ....!
never let it be said that Fitch are slow
ReplyDeleteJOHNNY HOUR is over.
ReplyDeleteAlright, off of Greece, they are toast, who's next?
ReplyDeletethoughts?
We all know this party is just getting started, I'm not even sure the keg has been tapped yet.
LB, I agree on the paunch, look at Phil, he had some hang over the belt action the first time he won a green jacket.
downgraded them two notches too ... woooo
ReplyDeleteMcF did you see Prechter on Fast Money last night
ReplyDeleteI will get link for the CNBS averse
Gold price in Euros is going into the stratosphere again. Someone should tell those Greeks its just fiat paper gold.
ReplyDeleteNic,
ReplyDeleteI tried to look for it but couldn't find it last night and then I started feeling sick by being on the CNBC site. He did Fast Money? I would like to see that. Were they all laughing at him?
@LB
ReplyDeleteBoth David Duval & "Hefty" Mickleson lost their swings when they got in shape...
Now both are fat & happy again (and making birdies)...
See, there is what I can't square about gold in deflation, it seems like the fear factor still trumps it.
ReplyDeleteI also think one day GLD is just going to go to about $0 when people finally wake up.
@McF
ReplyDelete"We all know this party is just getting started, I'm not even sure the keg has been tapped yet."
Well - I can pretty much tell you what these guys think
C,
ReplyDeleteJust a heads up, we are approaching mid 100's in comments already.
Perception is the key, Ben...
ReplyDeleteDont want to get in the way of a thundering herd and its perceptions.
Muscle Memory (in the cerebellum) knows where the mass is supposed to be, as Angular Momentum is developed at a consistent rate for solid ball striking. A change in the center of gravity therefore messes up the timing of the downswing completely, and the club face doesn't get squared up.
ReplyDeleteI-man,
ReplyDeleteindeed, I'd like to buy gold, but not on paper/GLD and I'm way out of my element with a dealer.
@McF
ReplyDeleteThanks for the "heads up"...
OK everyone... On the count of three STOP BLOGGING!
1......2.......2 1/2........2 3/4..........
I'll put up a new thread if we get near 200
ReplyDeleteI know this thought wont likely get me any votes for class president, but does anyone else get the sinking feeling that the market is setting up for an explosive move to the UPside?
ReplyDeleteI think we should all be on alert for this outcome, regardless.
A vicious move up to 1300 would leave alot of folks head scratchin.
I know, I know... but just sayin.
I-man,
ReplyDeletei think there are counts that could have that happen. I posted that basic ratio analysis I did on here the other day if we were putting a top in on an A wave not a C, AT had some doubts, but probably not a bad idea to keep it in mind as an alternate at least.
I think everyone is looking for higher prices though, more importantly.
Prechter on Fast Money:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1463714869&play=1
B-
ReplyDeleteI dont know if its just the crew, or what, but I get the feeling that more people are convinced we're going lower, than going higher.
Johnny doesnt know what to think, of course.
@ DL
ReplyDeleteGotta throw you props on the 1175. Thats money. 60 ticks.
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteI'd suggest you watch the Prechter interview on FAST MONEY (if you think more people are convinced we are going lower)...
Nic provided the link above...
Prechter could hardly get a word in edgewise... Most of the "street" and Johnny's are on the side of the FAST MONEY crew...
Well, this is purely anecdotal (see meaningless) but if blog comments outside of C's site and say ZH are indications, people are bullish. Seems to me that many are convinced the Fed has put a big under the market no matter what, (see all the comments about how analysis doesn't work)
ReplyDeleteI know retail clients are bullish. I also know MF's are generally bullish, what with virtually no cash.
and I know that while AAII isn't extreme, it still says bullish, and Investors Intelligence is almsot at an all time low in bears.
These sentiment readings can't be timed that's for sure, but they say a lot considering what they are revealing given our, uh,....backdrop.
I'm getting CNBC mobile for some reason on Nic's link. Can't get it to work.
ReplyDeleteFirst Reuters reports that deal is done for Greece on IMF terms ... Loans will be made to Greece at the SDR rate plus 300 bp plus a 50 bp service charge, according to an unnamed source.
ReplyDeleteSo that comes to about 3.76%…
But then ...
Ooops, German govt apparently denying there's anything in the works for Greece
Rumour mill is v busy
McF
ReplyDeleteI had that problem. I had to clear history and cache. There is something in CNBC mobile that overrides the main site
Najarian was all but acting like a "cognos" or "Harry Wanger" in the interview...
ReplyDeleteSeriously, amidst all the shouting from the 5 people on the panel, it was hard for RP to get a word in edgewise...
@Nic
ReplyDelete"Loans will be made to Greece at the SDR rate plus 300 bp plus a 50 bp service charge, according to an unnamed source.
So that comes to about 3.76%…
But then ...
Ooops, German govt apparently denying there's anything in the works for Greece"
Well whatever they do, they'd better make it so as to apply to all the next dominoes that are going to come asking for the same deal...
I am giving up trying to keep up with the rumours. Saekozy says deal done but Greek spreads back above 400bps.
ReplyDeleteGold is on the neck of that big inverse head and shoulders now
ReplyDeleteI am tempted to shut up shop. Trading government and CB rumour arbitrage is not my idea of fun.
ReplyDeleteLB my friends in euro fixed income are having less fun
ReplyDeleteSame as it ever was. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
ReplyDeletelol, I got it to work, that video was hilarious.
ReplyDeleteOh my, some guy is going to interrupt about p/e's and then talk about forward p/e's. those are uh, made up, yes?
"cash killed by deflation"
Najarian "saying it's going lower doesn't help"
Oh really?
How about when your mouth foaming brother does it:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/80519-fast-money-recap-oil-spoils-everything-6-6-08
"Although Pete Najarian sees lows in financials as a buying opportunity, he would avoid rushing in and would protect long positions. He noted a decline in OIH at the end of the day was due to profit-taking. Najarian said he would buy CHK and HK on Monday without hesitation."
but my favorite is Tan Joe explaining that there must be an "event" in order for stocks to go lower.
LOL!
me-thinks most all "pros" are bullish.
thanks Nic.
True....and yet the wonder of bonds is ... they make money while you do nothing. Also you can play auction arb, then go back to sleep.
ReplyDeleteUnlike say microcaps, where you live on one bull market per decade and the rest is a Pump n Dump scheme.
FX has to be the best for the truly restless - there is always some MISCHIEF to be made somewhere in the world.
Now, I'm willing to post this despite the fact that this site also gives EWI bad scores. The reason is that I know for a fact on Fast Money they do give "advice" and are very specific, while EWI does not give any investment advice:
ReplyDeleteAlso, I'm sure Tan Joe has skewed this data to the upside (snark)
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/individual-gurus/fast-money/
snip:
In summary, the Fast Money experts as a group probably do not offer fast money with their stock picks, and their stock-picking ability as a group is unimpressive.
Up, up and awwwwaaaaay, in my beautiful, my beautiful bA-llooooooooonnnnnn!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteGold is in overdrive. GS is spreading a "european banking problem" rumour.
ReplyDeleteQE makes geniuses out of all long stock/commodity guys and gals.
@McF
ReplyDeleteTo be fair... They call it "FAST MONEY"...
No indication as to whether that Fast Money is being MADE or LOST... :-)
The Money is Transferred...
ReplyDeleteJoe T. Pumps A Stock at 5pm, JOHNNY buys at 9.30,
then Joe DUMPS at 10.30 and makes FAST MONEY.
Same as Cramer.
Even CROX is up nearly 500% the past year. Does anyone even wear CROX anymore? Isn't that fad over?
ReplyDeleteAll heavily shorted stocks are up 500%. See the method?
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteIf you want to find the best performance look for the worst companies.
"Joe T. Pumps A Stock at 5pm, JOHNNY buys at 9.30,
ReplyDeletethen Joe DUMPS at 10.30 and makes FAST MONEY"
so when does he find the time to tan?
What's the ticker for that 2x inverse ETF on CROX - [snark]
ReplyDeleteDude tans in his pharmie induced sleep.
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteObama is "sticking it to" Tan Joe with the SURTAX on tanning salons :-)
That would be CROK.
ReplyDeleteJoe T tans between 10.30am and 5pm. Easy.
Joe tans after we have Ambien Sex
ReplyDeleteNEW THREAD UP
ReplyDeleteall - I'm trying to put a separate thread up around NOON here so that the comments don't get munched up as they have for the past few days...
See if this solves the problem...
Same thread look so skip over there
Hey, when is one of the greatest minds on the blogosphere going to show up to confuse/mess with us all?
ReplyDeleteI've been waiting all morning for this entity to appear.
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