ZEUS: pauses, contemplates, turns and bellows in a raspy bass voice "RELEASE THE KRACKEN"!
OK, I'm sorry, but the EMBED function was disabled on the video, so you have to click to see it here... (take time to watch it as it will SET the rest of the storyline)...
Since 1981 (the ORIGINAL "Clash of the Titans"), this has always been one of CV's favorite lines... However, it must be used extremely judiciously... It can either be one of the most POWERFUL utterances imaginable (as it can literally release HELL ON EARTH), or, it can become a cocktail joke...
CV is trying, here, to use it (as Zeus would), to precipitate a market correction (Note: CV may have one or two KRACKENS in reserve - let's call it the "three strike" rule - last FAILED KRACKEN and you're out - you're "stripped" of your godly powers)...
But I'm feeling good, yesterday I won a cup of coffee at the carnival... So today, I'm RELEASING THE KRACKEN!... But let me PREFACE that... I'm writing this at 23:00 Wednesday evening... This thread will launch very early tomorrow AM... I'm not even checking futures before I make this call... But I think the morning may start out rather benign... I could even see a move to 1190 sometime in the AM... But if we can't make 1194 tomorrow (today)... I hereby RELEASE THE KRACKEN!
Lloyd & Jamie can only HOPE to release the KRACKEN as I do!
OK, whatever... Silliness aside... Here's what Lloyd & Jamie PROBABLY think of CV "releasing the KRACKEN"...
And LB... This version of "RELEASE THE KRACKEN" is 100% for you!
CV only desires that his "CLASH OF THE TITANS" epic doesn't get turned into "TITS OF THE CLASHONS"
Fantastic, CV, I'm still laughing! Will be up early and bright (after a strong coffee) tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteof course- the Kracken- wasn't that from the Pirates of the Caribbean?
ReplyDeletegotta run my son to the airport for an early flight-
futures look a bit ugly this morning
Very good CV!!
ReplyDeleteCV your best yet. That was awesome, I'm still giggling.
ReplyDeleteHopefully this does not turn out to be this rally's version of Kracken:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsKO_r76kfQ
Greece is fugly this morning. ECB press conference about to start but given that Trichet has already pledged to accept everything including Greek grandmothers as collateral I am not sure what else he can say. The story about repo lines being cut to Greek banks is true tho.
ReplyDeleteHot rumour in FX this morning is to expect an announcement from Geithner/China but FX-land is usually one big rumour.
I heard there was an earthquake this morning in SoCal. Hope Karen can find the coffee beans.
I'm a big fan of his irish cousin.
ReplyDeleteFutures are slipping as though they've been Greeced.
ReplyDeleteGreek 10yr now at 447bps. Uh oh...
ReplyDeleteThat's the spread over Bunds. Yield is 7.54%. The clock is ticking.
ReplyDeleteNot this again...
ReplyDeletemore AIG this morning. Look at Lehman yesterday as well.
ReplyDeleteThat's worthy of a permanent eye roll....
LB is quite honoured, CV. Of course Riise is a huge hero of mine, wish LB could strike them like that, although once in a while...
ReplyDeleteSovereign debt issues should GREECE the wheel for the 30y auction.
I'm watching the ECB press conference, Trichet getting grilled good
ReplyDeleteChanges to collateral rules ...
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63711O20100408
No problem with the beans and I didn't spill them either! My quake shows a bunch of little ones in the last hour.. and a 3.7 at 5:38:44 Pacific Time.. It didn't wake me, unfortunately..
ReplyDeleteAndy mentioned foreseeing a 50-60 pt drop in the spx.. we need 75 to get back to my top.. I may have to readjust my thinking.
I haven't really kept up with all the "news" on metals manipulation but am I way off base to think that if those things are true, while bullion might be set to rise as a result of such things, paper gold, like GLD, should basically go to something much lower.
ReplyDeletethoughts?
alright, I think the posts are getting eaten again.
ReplyDeleteSlice of contagion with your coffee, anyone?
ReplyDeleteMy quake map, that is.
ReplyDeleteooh, ooh, oooooohhhh, Mr. Kotter! I saw it first!
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Initial-jobless-claims-apf-355511092.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Initial jobless claims increase unexpectedly
10 extra points for unexpectedly finding the word unexpectedly first! Barbarino will have to eat my dust!
Yuan appreciation coming soon to a market near you! Pressure on Euro.
ReplyDeleteMcF
ReplyDeleteI think if they start taking delivery on GLD the truth about their holdings will come to light. I believe that's why GLD has been asking people to take a cash settlement instead of physical.
Ben, I've had one eye on the gold manipulation saga.. between that, the Iranian/Israel hot bed, and currency debasement.. a short squeeze of epic proportions can't be ruled out. GLD and possibly IAU could dump.. so CEF is a good proxy as they are purported to be legit and the miners (GDX, $HUI for poxies.)
ReplyDeleteEarth moving again, Karen? No wonder you slept in....
ReplyDeleteMcF
ReplyDeleteI have decided to think of gold as a fiat currency and not as an actual commodity. If they want more they can just print more paper gold.
If everyone ever did want real gold all at once the rules say they can give them paper money instead.
Next we will have papergold leave the gold standard and :/
Here's my QUAKE map
ReplyDeleteCV would LOVE to see a 60 point drop!... My present gut tells me that the wave we're going to get now will finish out in the 1166-1167 area (then probably come back to 1176 for a little "upside down H&S action")... The more minutes we spend here (drawing a shoulder), the more I like that scenario...
I'm thinking the BEST we could hope for (on a deeper correction - lasting 8-13 days) would be around the 1122 area...
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteUp your nose with a rubber hose! :-)
thanks for the thoughts re: gold, peeps. I still want to buy physical gold, quite badly truth be told, but, despite the fact that some very smart people still think it's ok to buy up here, I've decided to wait.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe that gold "holds-up" in deflation like a lot of people do, but that fear factor with gold is hard to square against the deflation thesis.
get off my case toilet face
ReplyDeleteIn a few minutes I'm going to publish a chart pattern that recently made itself visible...
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting...
I'll put it at the bottom of the thread (after the goal by Riise)...
Morning Team,
ReplyDeleteCheck out the island on the 15min USO chart...
Its perfect!
ECB introduces haircuts for lower rated collateral and changes collateral rules for everyone (except Greece)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2010/html/pr100408_1.en.html
Hmmm somehow I don't see the treasury following this one
@McF
ReplyDelete"toilet face"
LOL... That makes me laugh... Did you ever watch "The Man Show"?... They used to do this thing on there from time to time that you spun a wheel and had to live with whatever fate was in store... Some were good things (like one of the "juggies" sits on your lap and gives you a kiss)...
Others...
Well one time they had Lou Ferrigno (Incredible Hulk) on there... And if you lost, you got a "swirlie" by Lou F... It was hilarious!
This Laguna Beach "cottage" has been reduced from 1.895 to 1.795 for 2k sq feet.. think it will sell??? Everyday, more come on the market.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?source=CARETS&cKey=6lf7vzj7&listing_num=L32288&mls=mls_so_cal
In your ear with a can of beer!
ReplyDeleteC,
ReplyDeleteyes, I had seen that segment on the man show before. That was a pretty funny show.
here we sit at 1177, seems a ton of people were looking for this as a line in the sand so to speak.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure everyone saw we had legit volume yesterday, as we typically do....on the down days that is.
Ben @ 9:52.. you and me both.. but my ten years in gold have taught me a lesson or two.
ReplyDeleteI believe it was LB that was mentioning TLT calls just a few days ago. That could have been a decent trade at this point.
ReplyDeleteLovely day to sell some 30y bonds. The Treasury I mean, not us. No shorting Ts until Greece is sorted.
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteYes, I've been learning from you gold bugs that have way more time dealing with the bullion than I do. I'm just going to have to be patient. Once I buy I don't think I'll ever get rid of it.
Gold for the "long-term"
Chuck Prince says he's "sorry".
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/08/financial-crisis-commissi_n_529841.html
Bruce
ReplyDeleteIt was unexpected because it was a holiday week. They usually come in BTE during those weeks.
Breakfast with Dave:
ReplyDeletehttps://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B7not0MAZdrXNTBmZWFjNTUtYWVmZC00NmNhLTlkZmMtMDViNGMxYTAwN2Ix&hl=en
"Greece’s dollar bonds would be unappealing even if they returned more than 7 percent, according to Richard Clarida, global strategic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co."
ReplyDeleteNo shit, Sherlock.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteTake a look at ARO today.
You said yesterday you aren't familiar, I'd almost describe it as a cheaper GAP, but I don't mean to say that to knock the place, they sell clothes that are, maybe half trendy, but they are pretty durable and very cheap. I think it's a better business model for the environment than Abercrombie for example, and I think better than GPS which is probably more the exact market segment they compete against. Stores tend to be smaller, less inventory, etc.
Chuck Prince says he's "sorry"....
ReplyDeletethat he didn't get a bigger bonus?
No kidding, ben! I thought might rankle a few folks here as it did Mannwich.
ReplyDelete"OK, Chuckie. All is forgiven. Here's a job at JPM Chase. You're back in the club."
I can't believe the euro (fxe) is still above the Mar 25 low of 132.37..
ReplyDeleteAlso, LOTS of LEVERAGE in gold.. another bubble waiting to pop.
DR:
ReplyDelete" Meteorologists at Colorado State University predict that the 2010 hurricane season will be very active. Should investors go long energy and short the insurers?"
Also, that II, sorry if he says this in there but we are only about 3 pts off the all-time low bearish reading in there I think. If this is a B wave and we go up in C to new highs it's almost certain we go to the all-time lows again.
Also, I need to do more work to figure out exactly what happened with consumer credit in the one report that showed expansion out of the last 13. Something doesn't smell right....
Manny,
ReplyDeletespeaking of failing up, have you seen the sweet deal that Corzine got?
Bruce, what are raises going to be like at the salt mine? 2%? Or 0%?
ReplyDeleteI did, ben, but I had to try to not pay attention because that shit really bothers me. We're so far from a "meritocracy", it's not even funny anymore. It's maddening. As lb has noted on many occasions, "Tyranny of the (Criminally) Incompetent" endures and thrives at our expense. It needs to be smashed and destroyed.
ReplyDeleteRunning NOO JOIZEY, or back on the STREET?
ReplyDeleteAre you kidding me? Noo JOIZEY? FUHGEDDABOUDIT.
@McF
ReplyDelete"here we sit at 1177"
This is the scenario that I laid out at (9:49)...
It's drawing a left shoulder for a REVERSE H&S move down to 1166 (the upside down head)... Then it'll come up and test the other shoulder...
You watch!
I'm still waiting for Bob Rubin to apologize but those "types" never apologize for anything because they're never wrong. Chuckie's not really in that select group. He's just the handmaiden of the Rubin-types, so he can apologize and take the fall for them. That's how it works. Guys like Rubin and Weil will never apologize for anything. After all, they're all "brilliant" and "smart".
ReplyDeletedid you all see the Jim Grant video discussing Greenspan? He didn't really hold much back did he.
ReplyDeleteBen, short interest in ARO is at 11.75% (with 95% institutional ownership!) float is only 93 million shares. I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole! (no pole jokes!! LB!)
ReplyDeleteHave you ever heard of Forever 21? privately held (because they are profitable!!!) very inexpensive trendy stuff for girls..
http://www.forever21.com/forever/history.asp
LB met Weill once. Greenberg too. It was a strange feeling, and it took me some time to identify what it was. Later I realized that I had sensed evil.
ReplyDeleteOh, I wanted to mention how great last night's thread was (and AR's wrap, of course.)
ReplyDeletePriceless, LB.
ReplyDeleteThanks for Breakfast with Rosie, Nic.
Pole jokes? Moi?
ReplyDeleteIt can be a strange feeling when you are drooling on people...
ReplyDelete5 minutes to play, Johnny.
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't buy ARO either, but I like the business model. Maybe if it was cut in half I'd take a look. I didn't check short interest but I assumed that's what today was, Gap probably has the same thing today.
these retail stocks seem to be priced for insanity.
SPX 1166, 1160 or 1150. Take your pick.
ReplyDeleteB in T. Raises at the salt mine ? 2% 1% or 0% ?
The sell-off continues, in high end jewelry liquidation, that is.. Just got an email from my texas jeweler whom I haven't spoken to in at least a year.. offering me a to-die-for cartier gold and diamond C bracelet.. ha! I have two I'd like to sell myself!
ReplyDeletePEEPS - I put a new chart into the thread... Yesterday, CV was fooling around with some 10 year weekly charts, and this is the visualization that struck me as being interesting
ReplyDelete@lb: Must have been like meeting an uglier (maybe nicer) version of Ted Bundy.
ReplyDeleteKaren's got jewelers in different area codes...
ReplyDeleteWatch out, suitors.
:)
I'm loving how retail sales are being reported as a huge hit, major success, blew away analysts predictions.
ReplyDeleteTwo questions:
1) Do you notice sales are 'up' while income is donw?
2) More importantly, don't you question the methodology when same-store sales do not include stores that have closed or companies have gone bankrupt?
I know everyone here knows this but come on people.... THINK, GODDAMMIT, THINK!
No bounce in Europe. European bank stocks are hurting today.
ReplyDeleteWe decide every December. So far, our employees have gotten a raise every year. With Obamacare, who knows?
ReplyDeletemcH:
ReplyDeleteElimination of competitors + High end Spenders + Inventory rebuild + Leaner Payroll = Happy Retailers.
Take that chart down, CV... its too good for the public eye.
ReplyDeleteIyah.
@mcHappy: The comparisons are to LAST year, which was the most brutal year for retail in decades. Talk about setting the bar on the ground and stepping over it.
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeleteI know a lot of guys that were "higher-ups" at AIG that ran the show for them here in DE on the insurance side as one is a client. They all give that feeling off, it's not just Hank. This group of guys that I know all roll with Biden here in DE as well.
Charles Cawley is also part of "the group"
@I-Man
ReplyDeleteThat chart is RELEASE THE KRACKEN - ILLUSTRATED
I'd short the SPX here at 1180 if I were trading today.
ReplyDeleteTo dovetail that thought, normally, I would wait to see what shenanigans are played on the 10min traders... I get the feeling someone isnt down to play games today though.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see. If they jiggle it up to 1182 and then we see selling, its going to be games all day.
buy the "dip" in apple today, lol.
ReplyDeleteto infinity!
GS looks like it may want to fight back to 180.
Beware the 1:42 timeframe...
ReplyDeleteThat's when Tiger tees off at Augusta...
Remember the market all but STOPPED when Tiger had his press conference about a month ago...
"They all give that feeling off, it's not just Hank"
ReplyDeleteIt's like being in the company of organized crime figures. Wonder why?
30y auction at 1pm. Rotation out of equities....
ReplyDeleteCV, you know what I see in that effing (excuse me) chart.. 1235 for the spx, if the financials never de-leverage/take writedowns. thank you BB!
ReplyDeleteAnd just why would the the financials ever de-leverage/take write-downs?
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteI actually think that's how it's going to play out, the last gasp of Primary Wave 2 is a push back up to new highs on the backs of the financials. Mentioned this a few weeks back, I think that's almost the ultimate sentiment indicator, people buying up the financials again.
@karen
ReplyDeleteMaybe on the 2nd attempt... Not the first IMO...
There was a .09 FIBO retrace in '06 on this trendline...
.09 from 1191 would take us to 1084 or so...
I'm all over that 10:46 C.
ReplyDeleteTarullo was just v. dovish.
ReplyDeleteHoenig is the lone hawk.
If the next stop after this correction is 1235, we might as well book a ticket to 500's by the end of the year/early next - most likely with a bounce around 680-700 to have Johnny and Brian think the double dip is done. Of course after a bounce/4th wave, bring on new lows with the 5th.
ReplyDeleteSlope of Hope.
Plan your trade/Trade your plan.
Boom shot!
@I-Man @karen
ReplyDeleteI'm going to draw the chart a different way and show you what I mean
2s10s 282. Steeper before 1pm, flatter afterwards.
ReplyDeleteBack to the malls
ReplyDeleteSame-store receipts indicate people more and more are shedding a recession mindset.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/march-sales-signal-us-consumers-are-back-2010-04-08
As per Nic last night:
ReplyDeleteGoldman Sachs Hedge Fund Executive Leaves Firm -Bloomberg
The co-head in the Americas of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s largest internal hedge fund has left the firm, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday on its Web site, citing three people familiar with the matter. Ali Hedayat, who was promoted to managing director in October 2006, left Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies. Goldman Sachs and Yedayat declined comment.
Just scrolled up and realized I had missed posts or they popped in late! crazy blogspot..
ReplyDelete@karen @I-Man
ReplyDeleteOK - I put a 2nd chart up under the first one... Here you see what a .09 pullback would look like... .09 would take the SPX to around 1084... Remember, there's a chart gap at 1076, ANF 1121 is the 50% FIBO retrace of the 1576-666 structure... The "cream" on top of this is that in '06 the pullback on that trendline was .09...AND... Both big pullbacks from June last year, and then January '10 were .09 pullbacks... This all fits into the wedge I drew with 1121 being the tip of the triangle...
Now tell me how I'm wrong...;-)
You're right until the market tells you otherwise, hows that?
ReplyDelete:)
But good work...
Greece Should Leave The Euro
ReplyDeletefrom today's pfenning:
ReplyDeleteWhile the euro seems to have found a bottom recently, many are still predicting a further drop. I read a UBS published technical report yesterday which predicts the euro will fall to $1.2892 or even lower in the near term. "As long as a recent resistance level of $1.3490 holds, the technical odds point toward a sharp decline in the near run," the UBS report stated. The drop would be precipitated by a fall below the 10 month low of $1.3280 which the euro reached on March 25th. Again, we aren't technical traders here on the desk, but I do like to read what the techies are looking at as it gives me some levels to watch out for.
Check this out, from the EWI message board:
ReplyDeleteQuestion: The Dow has rallied to near the upper range of the price targets that Prechter first gave in last August's Theorist. (Ben's comment: that's right, for all the trolls on the net that like to talk about how wrong these guys were, they have targets still higher than where we are now) Yet despite the "five waves" off the 2009 low, the rally remains corrective-looking, I agree with you on that. What if it keeps on going? How do we count it then?
Responder: Vadim Pokhlebkin Date: 4/8/2010
Bob Prechter tells me he is discussing this very issue "right off the bat" in the upcoming, April Elliott Wave Theorist. He says he's "found something interesting, something he's never seen before." I'm as curious as you are to find out what that is.
So....there's that.
CV, personally, i would redraw the lower wedge line to tag 3 pts, the first point as you have it and the one in '09 and '10.. Otherwise, it is perfetto.
ReplyDeleteThis is funny LB. Sometimes its hard to pay attention:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8gKmQ6Hrro
Thanks McF ... would love to hear when his newsletter comes out.
ReplyDeleteMy target EURUSD is 1.2870 but the pattern says to me we should take out the 08 lows eventually.
ReplyDeleteWe will very likely bounce at 1.30 because EUR loves round numbers.
Standing at Thermopylae:
ReplyDeletehttp://baselinescenario.com/2010/04/08/standing-at-thermopylae/
@karen (11:17)
ReplyDeletePardon my french but SCREW pfenning (and all the horses he and his johnny come lately friends are riding in on)...
CV wrote an ENTIRE article in mid-February about the Euro...
Here was the chart I'd annotated:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uq2KcmM6MLM/S4lDph87pZI/AAAAAAAAAa4/xPJKCr4z4d0/s1600-h/FXE_2_26_10.JPG
I've said all along that Euro was going to 1.29 by May 4th... I even outlined ALL of the rhetoric you'd hear in between...
- Greece Fire
- Greece fire out
- yada yada, bla bla bla
The article I wrote is still in this blog archive...
Sheesh! CV is the friggin Rodney Dangerfield of chart forecasts...
Nic,
ReplyDeleteDL was busting my chops a bit about EWI sharing the other day so I'll share some comments on it when it comes out. I'm excited to see what he's come up with. Outside of Prechter, who's added very little to Elliots original works (people seem to forget a lot that it's called Elliot wave because that's the dude who came up with it, not RP), only other person I know of that's actually added some value regarding wave formations is Glen Neely such as the diametric idea which Andy talked about several months ago, and which I find to be valid.
Most of the other add-ons I've seen to Elliots letters published between 38-46 are not worth learning, the old Elliot letters book is an awesome read if anyone was ever just looking for the basic introduction to EWave but didn't want to make a huge task out of learning/practicing it.
Note:
ReplyDeleteOn that chart, at the time I'd had the March 11-16 time period as something to watch...
That was WHEN Greece was supposed to have it's AUSTERITY PLAN in effect (so you had to have caution that a Euro "short squeeze" would occur)...
I knew it was a joke, but I had to list it as an outlier... When it FAILED on the LESSER trendlines on that bounce...
IT WAS GAME ON FOR 129...
CV, sorry, but i too took a straight edge to the euro and came up with 129 .. it is not a big deal!!
ReplyDeleteOK, TBP now has a chart up from the year 1450......
ReplyDeleteWhat's next, chart's penned by Jesus himself?
Fans of LB might like to check out Traders Anonymous for a little ditty. We will post it at Macro Man once the SHTF in Europe, which is imminent.
ReplyDeleteNic, that youtube vid was the cutest ever!
ReplyDeleteThat is an instant classic, lb.
ReplyDeleteHehe CV
ReplyDeleteI will read and memorise all your posts, I promise
@karen
ReplyDeleteThe 1084 zone WILL become the 3rd tagged point...
CV likes looking AHEAD to things (not behind at them)... ;-)
What's next, chart's penned by Jesus himself?
ReplyDeleteBarry is Jewish, so potentially we could see charts going back to Old Testament Days, where Debt Jubilees were a frequent feature, as noted by Steve Keen. Actually liked that chart at TBP, didja all notice the 17th century - the deflationary effect of The Black Death?
Manny,
ReplyDeletehaven't seen the chart but:
Why do you not think it would not be valid to look at old charts?
Was the black death or the aftermath of the tulip mania? Or both?
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteSure it's not a big deal... NOW, halfway into April...
But when I made that chart, in February... 90% of the people were saying that the Euro was oversold, and Goldman Sachs had a 1.40 target on it, was public about it, and had a STOP LOSS at 1.36
CV was swimming WAAAAAAAAAYYY against the crowd at that time...
1.29 seemed OUT OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM then, now it's like "pin the tail on the effin' donkey"
@ben: I'm not necessarily saying it's not valid, but that old? Charts are useful, for sure, but I'm just not as sold on them as many are here. There is no "magic bullet". And I don't really want to get into a debate about it either.
ReplyDeleteCV doesn't use charts...
ReplyDeleteI simply use the "MANNWICH INDICATOR"... (which trumps all chartology...
Really, cv? How's that working out for you? Seems like many here have been "contray indicators" for quite a long time.
ReplyDeleteUh oh. The A/D line for S&P 500 Issues and NYSE Issues just broke above 1.00
ReplyDeleteI'm not getting in front of this steamroller.
ReplyDeleteI doubt it means anything...
ReplyDeleteGetting the 30y to price right
I wouldn't count on much higher than 1183 (with a possible little throwover if they want to touch the trendline from Tue...
ReplyDelete"I'm not getting in front of this steamroller."
ReplyDeleteThat's an example of the Mannwich Indicator...
Well, there you go, cv. Go ahead and trade on it. Be my guest. You'll never admit/reveal your losses anyway.
ReplyDeleteWe will get shorter equities again into the auction. BUCKY should be screaming upwards today with the Greek action, and that will weigh on stocks eventually.
ReplyDeleteA short squeeze in currencies is dragging on Bucky but he will prevail.
ReplyDeleteI've probably made less than 6 trades all year thus far...
ReplyDelete5 trades were "short" (and they're presently RED, but will go green on any pullback UNDER 1150)... Most of those trades were made RIGHT on 1150 back in January...
1 trade was "long"... It was a HEDGE (which was a profit - but I exited too soon - I was 3x long S&P from 1086 to 1130)...
Anything else you want to know?
Currently I'm 60% short SPX, 40% cash... and have a small position in FXP (which is red by only a percent and a half)... Should go green soon...
Just as long as LIVERPOOL get past Benfica. With an away goal in hand we just need a niggly 1-0 win. Forget the style, clog the middle, Carra can boot it downfield for El Niño, then someone take a dive in the box and have Stevie score from the spot. That's the way we do it at Anfield.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone gets hurt, LB is warming up....
Nope.
ReplyDelete@Manny
ReplyDeleteA 3% RED position (at the max), for the past 18 days has made me cry myself to sleep every night... :-)
Just keeping you honest, cv. Nobody else challenges you around here, so someone has to do it, I think. ;-)
ReplyDeleteMcFearless @ 11:33
ReplyDeleteMoi?
@Manny
ReplyDeleteI'm really not trying to offend you when I say "The Mannwich Indicator"... If it came off that way, I APOLOGIZE...
I poke fun at myself here as much as I poke fun at anyone else... At times I'm arrogant, at times I'm humble (mostly "arrogant" though)...
Anyway, it's a matter of QUANTIFICATION to me (a term I'd expressed yesterday - but here I'm applying it to the simple 'math' of the markets)...
If you read back though this thread today (or the past days, for that matter)... What numbers do you hear expressed?
Upside? 1235? 1300? Right?
From 1190... 1235 is about 3.5%... 1300 is less than 10%
Downside? I've outlined several scenarios where a 9-10% correction is plausible...
So if you want to use 1235 as a benchmark... I see a 3 up 10 down risk... I'll lay my money on the 10 down...
So if the market wants to 'tease' everyone here and tick from 1183 to 1186... I could really friggin care less... For that matter... I could care less if it does a moonshot to 1235 before Tiger tees it up on Friday...
That's why there's always some cash...
Vince Cable of the Liberal party may be a candidate to become chancellor of the exchequer in a coalition government if neither of the two main parties secures an overall majority.
ReplyDeleteToo amusing.... bullish for sterling?
Bought ESM0 this morning at 1175.
ReplyDeletePlan to sell on "magic Monday".
@Manny
ReplyDeleteTo sum it all up...
While I make MANY comments on "ticks" in the market... I'm usually only interested in trying to figure out the LARGER PATTERNS they're suggesting...
I usually don't trade until a "whopper" seems to be upon us...
and at that moment RELEASE THE KRACKEN :-)
And off she goes......
ReplyDeleteCV @ 12:23
ReplyDeleteNo need to apologize. I find the Mannwich indicator produces many profitable trades.
However, you're ruining it by drawing so much attention to it.
No worries, cv. I can certainly dish it out too. We're not always going to agree. That's life. But we can learn from each other sometimes.
ReplyDeleteFrom Business Insider the Tiger Ad (remix)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kVIJM7jxh8
LB @ 12:23
ReplyDelete"Too amusing.... bullish for sterling?"
You tell us. I'm no expert on British politics.
@DL
ReplyDeleteI said it a few weeks ago (after Manny's last trip)...
He needs to travel farther from home for things to work... NO visiting Duluth!
I'm thinking PLUTO (or the Dagobah System), or something like that...
Could we now have the DL Indicator? Total confidence in buy the dips and Magic Monday.
ReplyDelete@DL: Confirmation bias reigns supreme everywhere now. Whatever floats your boat.
ReplyDeleteAnd I enjoy a good "debate" every now and then in case you couldn't tell. Keeps me on my toes and alive..... ;-)
ReplyDeleteCV: Augusta - CONTROL YOUR BALL and AVOID BIG NUMBERS. Yes? Of course that's what LB tells himself every time he tees it up.
ReplyDeleteDL: CABLE is how FX traders refer to GBP:USD, so that name is a hoot.
KAREN: I would also be long Magic Monday into the Alcoa earnings. After that, who knows?
Hey, I'm a believer in Magic Mondays, too! But, it is getting too good to be true.. or too much of a good thing, perhaps?
ReplyDeleteAs Andy would say, "What could go wrong?"
ReplyDeleteCrude Thursdays came to an end too. So will Magic Mondays maybe even next Monday? There you go, DL. Go and trade it. Should be a lay up.
ReplyDeletedead canary sighting! XRT
ReplyDeleteKaren @ 12:30
ReplyDeleteNo "total confidence". Just a bet that we'll get back to 1190 by Monday.
Using futures or options, I'm happy to capture a 0.5-0.8% move here and there.
More signs of a double dip?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/hotel-occupancy-declines-compared-to.html
@Manny
ReplyDeleteAnother thing to say is this... Whatever your philosophy is, what one OUGHT to consider is what the OVERALL outlook based on LONGER TERM charts...
That's why I posted the 10 year charts in this thread... It's a snapshot of market levels over the past decade...
It's possible to understand pricing mechanisms at certain points and understand WHY, perhaps, an index is going towards a level that seems to make no sense in the short term...
Thus:
I see us nearing a trendline (or, AVERAGE of a trendline) and have to ask myself... "Is the situation RIGHT NOW, fundamentally better than it was the last time we were here"...
Where we're at (on the above charts), is where we were in '06 (when unemployment was 5%, your house price was GUF, you didn't need any documentation whatsoever to procure a loan, your house was an ATM, the Federal Defecit was 1/3rd of what it has become in the past year, and we were happy because we were getting ready to kick that last bum out of office and get our boys back home)...
So all CV has to do is ask himself a simple question (same question Ronald Reagan asked people in 1980)... "Are we/you better off now than you were 4 years ago"... I'm making NOTHING out of Reagans politics, I'm making EVERYTHING about the question itself...
Right here, on this S&P chart trend line, "ARE WE BETTER OFF"?... So, if you think we're on the right track... You buy stocks... If you don't... Well, the RISK is, that we've COME BACK to this level on "hope" (and to even things out over time)...
The SCARY thing is, if we LOSE that hope, we've yet to do ANYTHING with regards to peeling back the curtain...
How far down the rabbit hole are we actually...
Do yo want the RED PILL or the BLUE PILL?
C breakout! or bull trap?! laughing at myself, honestly.. how many times have i posted those words this year?! (pls, don't tell me.)
ReplyDelete@cv: I'm not totally dissing charts. I give it some weight but I just don't give as much as others do here because I think there are way too many things going on that we're not even aware of that potentially nullify (or offset) them a bit. Again, I think they're useful. I'm not just not a "true believer" in that or much of anything that is so multi-factored and complex.
ReplyDelete@LB
ReplyDeleteAugusta - CONTROL YOUR BALL and AVOID BIG NUMBERS.
That's it! Quote of the day (and metaphor of the day)... Well said...
If we get a 9-10% pullback in the near future, I'd be inclined to become fully invested at that point. But not now.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteAs Andy would say, "What could go wrong?"
My favorite Andy T quote of all time :-)
I agree with you there, DL. Does that mean you'll change your mind? ;-)
ReplyDeleteMannwich @ 12:45
ReplyDeleteThere is no magic indicator. But you've got to rely on something (or put the money under the mattress).
Mannwich @ 12:46
ReplyDeleteA conundrum indeed.
Wonder if the FED will do the DISCOUNT RATE HIKE again. Bet Hoenig is pushing that idea hard...
ReplyDeleteNext MONDAY will be MAGIC. Then we get to chew on earnings season. The last few have been tepid periods for the market. Low volume churn.
If we are going to get a pullback, right HERE would be logical.
@DL: Now I've stumped you, haven't I!? ;-)
ReplyDeleteCV @ 12:46
ReplyDeleteMy favorite of his is "don't be a d*ck for a tick".
“Wonder if the FED will do the DISCOUNT RATE HIKE again. Bet Hoenig is pushing that idea hard”
ReplyDeleteHe’s got to get it past Rahm Emmanuel first.
@DL,
ReplyDeleteSee above, I'm going to share some EWI stuff when it comes out per your request.
No charts though.
McF @ 12:52
ReplyDeleteI just don't want to see you become the target of a copyright infringement suit.
I'm only looking out for your best interests
(Ha ha).
@LB
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of "Control your Ball & Avoid Big Numbers"...
Let me tell you a story (I'm sure you can appreciate this)...
You know damn well I was itching to pull the trigger on some TLT calls earlier this week... I didn't end up doing it... Why? Because while I cherished the idea, the PRICE/RISK wasn't right...
I immediately looked at the ARRIL 88/89/90 OTM strikes (which were only 8 days to expiry)... I'd really like to have taken a shot at any of these, but the number of contracts that I'd have needed to purchase to make it worthwhile would have "blipped" the volume for sure... Something on my shoulder was telling me that there would be a shark on the other end of that trade and I'd have ended up going home with empty pockets...
I could have purchased a small amount of contracts, but I still calculated I'd have to have been "lightning fast" on the trigger to even get 40% on that...
It just wasn't worth the time & effort to have my entire mind focused on that one thing... It would have tied me up for too long so I passed...
LB is tightly stopped. The bunker is fine, just avoid the water at the short par 3. Amen Corner time.
ReplyDeletespeaking of the black death above, I've always sort of looked cross-eyed at these huge counts, only because it's so hard to get any real data going back so far, but...fwiw
ReplyDeletethe Black Death, occured in the 1300's at the low (supposed) of wave 2 in the Millennium degree advance, when 1/3 of the population of the Western Civilization died of disease.
Also, in my notes I wrote some socionomic political forecasts from about 10 years ago that the Socionomic Institute put out:
The US will become more authoritarian because that's always the primary political force in a negative mood trend. At the time they gave examples of the US starting to lean that way: property seizure laws, anti-free speech laws, RICO, EPA levies, and gestapo-like attacks on private citizens by the FBI, ATF and DEA, welfarist business laws, OSHA impediments, demands for socialized medicine, among others.
This was all before the Patriot Act.
This is scary to me, we know that politics should become more radical in the coming years according to socionomics, but you can't tell which forces ultimately win.
DL,
ReplyDeleteI've considered it more since you brought it up and considered there are a handful of sites on the web which have basically been reproducing their stuff I doubt they care at all about me.
Up, up, and away in my beautiful balloooooonnnnnnnn......
ReplyDelete@Manny
ReplyDelete"I'm not totally dissing charts. I give it some weight but I just don't give as much as others do here because I think there are way too many things going on that we're not even aware of that potentially nullify (or offset) them a bit."
The charts, to me, are the SCULPTURE...
Is the statue of David just a statue? No! It's the result of thousands upon thousands of hammer strokes on a chisel by Michelangelo...
Was Michelangelo devoid of emotion as he pounded out the strokes? I doubt it...
IOW - All the "blood, sweat, & tears" of the emotions, politics, excesses, fears, initiatives, greed, & stupidity of the world goes into the HONING of a stock chart sculpture...
You either see it that way or you don't...
Some see "David"... Others see the "Bobs Big Boy" statue...
TIF new 52-week high. Must be all that new jewelry the welfare kings of Wall Street are buying their mistresses or just Tiki Barber taking care of his co-ed 21 year-old honey.
ReplyDeleteI'm somewhere in the middle, cv. Again, useful at times but not the end-all-be-all. Way too many variables.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else checking a GLD 1min?
ReplyDelete@McF (1:03)
ReplyDeleteDon't compromise your morals...
If it were YOUR copyrighted material (regardless of whether or not some were getting away with reproducing it), would YOU want people to do it in their own whimsical ways...
Look... If I want that material, I'll gladly PAY for it...
There's NO NEED for you to share anything here...
TIF trading above Sept. '07 levels. Closing in on early '08 levels. Times are great for the ultra-rich, I guess. Why should they share any of the pain or sacrifice anything? UFB.
ReplyDeleteC,
ReplyDeleteAgain, no charts.....ideas of someone else are just that, I'll keep it generic enough where it's not a copy, but also can be read and have a takeaway.
@Manny
ReplyDelete"I'm somewhere in the middle"
So basically you're like... "David's BIG BOY"?
@Ben @ 1:01
ReplyDeleteBen, I agree with that sentiment. Sometimes I think as we become more urbanized and people are packed into tighter and tighter spaces, that more control of the population occurs. In the west, years ago, I think part of the reason people lived in those harsh climates was the freedom to be left alone from what they'd experienced back east.
Carl's Junior?
ReplyDelete"Tommy's World Famous"?
ReplyDelete"Hammerin Hank's"?
ReplyDeleteBingo, cv.
ReplyDelete"Joe Blow's"?
ReplyDelete"For Pete's Sake"?
ReplyDelete30y auction - smaller than the 10y so not as critical. This was fair.
ReplyDeleteBid/Cover 2.73
Coupon Rate 4.625%
Total Amount $13 B
Yield Awarded 4.770%
Bruce,
ReplyDeletepart of the reason I like Socionomics so much is that it always seems a lot more logical to me compared to more traditional economic/social views which use exogenous events to explain why things happened.
Perhaps in another 1,000 years or so more people will think this way, it's very clear that the net isn't ready for it now, or doesn't accept it anyway.
The new law of the land: must not ever have two significant down market days in a row. Who knows where that would lead? Prices on anything must never go down again.
ReplyDeleteOT: anyone here doing fantasy Baseball?
ReplyDelete@ben: I haven't in the past. Seems like too much work. You?
ReplyDelete@McF
ReplyDeleteHell yeah! (Fantasy Baseball)
B in T @ 1:13
ReplyDeleteThere are still some people who live in the middle of nowhere. Just look at CV.
I should have started a league here...
ReplyDeleteI wasn't sure if a lot would have been interested (because Manny is right... It DOES take some maintenance)...
I'm in a pay League...
Manny,
ReplyDeleteno, not doing it. but, if people here ever started a league I'd do it.
Came to the same conclusion basically, I did BB this year and you have to be in there almost every day changing the lineup, and they play half as many games as MLB.