Morning Audibles 3.16.09 - Shark Jumping Count

12 green candles in a row... 12! (on the SPY)... We're working on #13 today as futures are up again... So I suppose we're just going to turn to "Shark Jumping Watch" around here... Last Friday I featured a photo of "The Fonz", jumping the shark... He was successful, so successful he wowed the fans by jumping right back over it in the opposite direction. I guess since "Happy Days" is now in syndicated re-runs, he'll just keep jumping over, and over, and over that shark until someone turns the channel. (Note: may I casually point out that while "The Fonz" is doing his death defying shark jumping act, over and over again, "The DOW", is still not breaking out to higher highs than January).

The tape makes sense to nobody right now (except, perhaps, the ALGOS, so I'm going to attempt to give you an "algo" view explanation of yesterdays tape on 5 minute charts).

There are some other things, I suppose, worth considering. This is OPEX week. As such, many stocks & ETFS are subject to "pining" (which means their prices can be, let's say, "guided" to levels that create the most favorable payouts to the "anointed ones" who get their free cash from 33 Liberty. You'll get the tax bill for that shortly, so don't feel left out. The MAX PAIN index is a chart that basically illustrates where the passerby, playing this 3 card monte, stands to lose the most (on either side of the trade), and the house wins.

One thing I've been talking about for a few weeks now was the fact that last September, I was watching as many "futures" bets were being place on a dollar recovery. Much of that action was bought for the December '09 and March '10 expiries. Classic "gaming" went on in December as the 23 strike was held back, then blown out on the very morning of opex Friday. It seems we have a little of that going on here as well. The dollar has been doing nothing but moving sideways for the better part of a month now. If you still believe in the "all one trade" theory. Well, then you can translate that back to understanding why Fonzie keeps jumping the shark. Probably what's in question here is the 24 strike on UUP... Watch that being held back so as to avoid any call payouts over that...

And meanwhile, watch for Fonzie to keep jumping that shark. If you get bored with the foto, I'l just start putting "Re-Run" up there to change things up a bit... (Bull & Bear version, just to be fair)