Spring Break is Over in "these parts."
Now, back to work.
Market Commentary 18Mar12
Addendum:
New Tune for the Week Ahead... "Sweeter" by G.DeGraw ... it's 'catchy.'
"I just wanna take
Someone else's holiday
Sometimes the grass is greener
And someone else's sugar
Someone else's sugar
Sweeter"
Weekly 3LB Update 3/16/12
ReplyDeleteThanks for the charts Andy.
SWEET!er
ReplyDeleteThx for the charts you two quasi-anonymous traders.
Ra,
re: ur udder blog
""monthly info MONTHLY REVERSAL new high 1365.68
trend=no; direction=up (1 bar)
high= 1365.68
rev= 1131.42; mid= 1248.55""
at what price would the SPX Monthly need to start it's trend up?
QQQQ
ReplyDeleteThe third higher monthly close would start the trend. Even if it's by a penny.
Ex:
Feb 1365.68 reversal
Mar 1404.17 confirmation (hypothetical)
Apr 1405.00 trend (hypothetical)
@Mutt
ReplyDeleteIn re: Vodka/Brita
That's an interesting taste test on the crap vodka in re: "good vodka."
It all sort of makes sense....
For the Record:
I'm a HUGE Vodka and Gin drinker. Gin contains up to 12% more alcohol than vodka so I try to lay off the gin on a "party" night.... I always try to maintain some sense of 'control' at all times. With Gin, I can and will lose 'it.'
The BEST Gin, for me, is Hendricks. Give it a whirl some day. Hendricks/Tonic or Hendricks/Soda Water or Hendricks/"Sonic" are all good with some lemon or lime. It's an awesome Gin and it's starting to show up more often in bars.
Note: Don't DISTILL Gin ever. The floral elements are what make it great.
Ketel One is sort of the "go to" Vodka at all times whenever your're around "people" or in a bar or whatever. If you order or a "Ketel Tonic" or "Ketel Soda" your immediately 'ok' in the eyes of anyone around.
Though, my favorite vodka 'drink' remains "Grey Goose on the Rocks with Four Olives please."
Three Olives Vodka is 'ok' but I consider it middle-range.
I love Vodka...and I love 'talking' about it.
Good Stuff Mutt.
-AT
@Andy T
ReplyDeleteTo my knowledge, gin "IS" vodka (with the floral arrangements added)...
Same way whiskey is basically vodka too (with the burnt oak...
Vodka itself can be distilled in various ways (from potatoes, corn, wheat, rye, whatever)...
But it's all pure alcohol (not too different from the ethanol you can run engines with)...
After that, it's alcohol "purity" gets diluted down to standards (which is usually around 40%) then it either...
- goes into a burnt oak barrel (whiskey)
- has some juniper & other floral (gin)
Even the others basically use the same process...
- Algave (tequila)
- Sugar cane (rum)
~~~~
You can even buy a big bottle of any fruit juice at the supermarket and distill it down to make a jailhouse alcoholic beverage...
& I still say you're all "vodka snobs" :-)
ReplyDelete~~~~
In two seconds, (well, not really 2 seconds, but)...
Take crack corn (or potatoes) that you grow at home... Ferment them & distill them (in a pressure cooker with a copper tower that you welded on the top, a thermometer, & a copper coiul tube that runs thru a bucket of ice...
burn some oak chips with a blow torch and put it in a sealed container and let it age...
~~~~
Just don't let the Fed's know about it (they don't like it when you cut into their "profit machine" ~ just like they don't like anyone profiting off the poppy trade in Afghanistan but themselves)...
Anyway... You can make your own tabasco sauce that way (which is all I'd ever do anyway because I don't drink hard alcohol & homebrewing 'beer' isn't illegal)...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-near-106-us-denies-061142531.html
ReplyDelete"Oil prices rose slightly to near $106 a barrel Friday after the U.S. denied reports it and the U.K. plan to release some their strategic crude reserves."
...Well, interest rates and oil going up at the same time...I hope Ben has a Depends...
- Sugar cane (rum)
ReplyDeleteactually, Rum is made from distilling Molasses +
Molasses, a by-product of 'Cane Sugar' "manufacturing"..
~~
"...Rum is fermented from naturally sweet molasses, a by-product of processing sugar cane. Yeasts ferment the water thinned molasses, which is converted directly into ethyl alcohol without creating the aldehydes and ketones that are found in grain fermentation. When rum is distilled, it produces 97.5% alcohol and 2.5% water.
Super-premium Gosling’s Black Seal Bermuda Rum is made from a Gosling’s family recipe dating back nearly two centuries and comprises of independently aged distillates aged in once-used, charred, American oak bourbon casks. The smooth, full flavour is the result of a careful blend of aged pot and continuous still distillates. One imparts flavour; the other a subtle elegance..."
http://www.goslingsrum.com/discover_howrum.asp
AAIP
http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2012/03/19/2541/
ReplyDelete“At the moment the shortage of diesel in Europe is 30-40 million cubic metres”, says Michael Löw who is managing director of Preem.
SPX 1440 by EOQ then whoosh.
ReplyDeleteI'm still LMAO each time I see a story about how retail investors are not participating in the current market advance. Can you blame them? They probably see the economy and the market as two separate entities and aren't falling for the BS.
Why is hemp off the biofuel menu?
ReplyDeleteWith recent reports downplaying the possibility of biofuels as a solution to climate change, Giulio Sica wonders why there has been no mention of hemp as an alternative crop
The Royal Society, the European Commission and the UK government have all managed, in the last few days, to take the wind out of the sails of the biofuel industry, publishing reports that suggest biofuels could be causing more harm than good, the crops not being as environmentally friendly as first thought, with the Commons environmental audit committee calling for a moratorium on biofuel targets until more research can be done.
What struck me as astonishing about these reports is that they all managed to ignore the one crop which has been successfully used for many years to create bioethanol and biodiesel, is environmentally friendlier to produce than sugar beet, palm oil, corn or any of the crops mentioned in the report and can grow in practically any temperate to hot climate leaving the ground in better condition than when it was planted.
That plant is hemp.
Last year, the Conservative MP David Maclean tabled a question to the then environment secretary, Ian Pearson, asking what assessment had been made about the potential to grow hemp as a biofuel crop in England. Pearson responded:..."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2008/jan/28/whyishempoffthebiofuelme
http://search.yippy.com/search?query=European+Hemp+Biofuel&tb=sitesearch-all&v%3Aproject=clusty
ReplyDeleteGrow hemp for bio-fuel?
"Hemp will _______ Kill You.."
~~~
allow Poppies to be in Afghanistan?
"Here's a U$D million to fight 'drug use'.."
~~~
Corruption? 'Our' "Public Servants"?
noo, Never..
U.S. Funded, Trained and Equipped Afghan Air Force Running Guns and Drugs
March 10th, 2012
Here are a few related posts to consider:
Afghan Opium Production Rises by 61% Compared with 2010
Brother of Afghan Leader Is Said to Be on CIA Payroll
U.S.-Built Bridge is Windfall for Illegal Afghan Drug Trade
The Invisible Hand of the Market: British Troops Seize £50 Million of Afghan Opium
Officials Puzzle Over Millions of Dollars Leaving Afghanistan by Plane for Dubai
Afghans Believe U.S. is Funding Taliban
NATO Forces Supplied Food, Water and Arms to Taliban Forces in Southern Afghanistan
Afghanistan: Planned British Covert Operation Included Training in “Farming and Irrigation Techniques” for Taliban Fighters
Blackwater Worldwide Changes Its Name to Xe; Same Mercenaries, but Now with More “Aviation Support”
Afghanistan: Special Forces Under CIA Control Would be Considered Spies, Allowing White House to Claim U.S. Troops Have Been Withdrawn
And now…
Via: Wall Street Journal:.."
http://cryptogon.com/?p=27977
ibid.
"...I see a story about how retail investors are not participating in the current market advance. Can you blame them? They probably see the economy and the market as two separate entities and aren't falling for the BS..."
ReplyDeleteesp.
"...I see a story about how retail investors are not participating in the current market advance..."
~~
that 'Story' is on 'Auto-Play/Repeat' throughout the MSM..
it is, definitely, being banged out 'con Fuerte'..
AAIP
AT & AmenRa,
nice Chartage~
hope everyone is getting their 'Shortin' Sticks' is shape..the 'Season' seems 'right around the Corner..'
Ra,
ReplyDeleteActually, I can and do blame them, and I figure the economy has basically nothing to do with it on the whole
put another way, how come the average retail investor only earned about 3% per year in the 90's?
Most people don't spend much time thinking about the economy, let alone studying financial markets.
"...how come the average retail investor only earned about 3% per year in the 90's?..."
ReplyDeleteA: they were in MutFunds, while the Johnson's, et al. were making themselves into, literally, Billionaires?
A: everytime They asked, They were told: ~"Covered-Call Writing will Kill You!"
as, but, a couple of *Reasons..
AAIP
AAIP,
ReplyDeletepersonally I think it would be a huge mistake to chalk up the public's performance to the idea that they listen to others and they were led astray
people were also told by certain shops to buy and hold in the 90's too, after all, to say nothing of the fact that others hyped option strategies as a major wealth builder/protector
the public has a serious problem with regard to the markets which is that they refuse to put in the time and effort required to win on balance over time
and so they generally get back what they put in....
nothing
As for the public, perhaps this chart will be more instructive as to what I'm getting at:
http://sentimentrader.com/blog/archives/135
AAIP
ReplyDeleteLooking at AAPL the Apr 800 call is 0.65. Depending on how many shares one owns you're looking at $65 for 100 shares, $650 for 1k shares & $6500 for 10k shares. That's for covered calls. Many like to use close to the ITM options or just a little OOM...fugg that.
Ra,
ReplyDeleteyou trade a lot of options right? Thought I recalled you saying that once.
B22,
ReplyDeleteHave you abandoned your P3 predictions altogther?
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteMolasses... yes, correct... still comes from sugar cane tho... :-)
Day-O
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQXVHITd1N4
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteSee Eye Eh are the biggest druglords in the world...
"Poppy" Bush ~ lol
ReplyDeleteben22
ReplyDeleteYeah. I dont try and get too fancy with it. Don't mess with straddles, butterflies, etc.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteI haven't talked about p3 in well over 2 years so thats probably a good indication that I'm not looking for such a thing at present
it was never my prediction either, so I can't take credit for coming up with the forecast in the first place, that was EWI.
more importantly though, I try to trade the tape thats in front of me, not a forecast of some distant outcome
The yields on the 10yr and 30yr are pissing Bernanke off right about now.
ReplyDeleteRa,
ReplyDeleteSame here, I stick with the basics on options
If I had more time I might get a bit more complex but I have too many issues going on during the day
Russian Anti-Terror Troops Arrive in Syria
ReplyDeletehttp://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/russian-anti-terror-troops-arrive-syria/story?id=15954363#.T2eJG9Wgu8E
~~~~~
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2012/02/amenras-corner-21312.html?showComment=1329190364236#c5584127210755726580
~~~~~
OK... Now back to picking SuperBowl winners (aka ~ trying to figure out whether ot not Wes Welker will drop a pass right in his hands...
"...the public has a serious problem with regard to the markets which is that they refuse to put in the time and effort required to win on balance over time
ReplyDeleteand so they generally get back what they put in....
nothing ..."
McB,
that'd be 'fair enough', as well..
seems, as a general Rule, peep aren't heavy believers in 'Self-Education'..~
AAIP
also, re: Options, i find it simpler, more 'straightforward', to keep the "Strategies" to the de minimus levels..
almost, as Rewarding, infinitely less Time consuming..
ben22
ReplyDeleteMost of the option strategies are to lock in a minimun gain with the possibility of outsized profits.
B22,
ReplyDeleteSo what is your explanation for U.S. stock market levitation? Do you chalk it up to liquidity (and general inflation of virtually everything), mark-to-market changes, progressive leverage, etc.? Or do you honestly believe that "fundamentals" support what we've seen and are continuing to see? Or do you remain agnostic and simply trade trend, whether it is rational or not?
It is easy to bash retail investors for assuming the market does not reflect the economy...but there is really a major disconnect here.
....brokers try to talk you out of covered calls because that's part of what the company they work for is doing with your money. Just sayin'.
ReplyDeleteAnon
ReplyDeleteFree money (0.0-0.25%). It has to go somewhere and that somewhere is not the customer.
re: Self Education
ReplyDeletesome of that is a psychology thing
as an example people love to follow "experts" and also to like to repeat what they say, no matter how inconsistent. I've certainly done it before.
An example is that people believe that markets can't be timed while also believing that if the market is to crash then it would come back up. Contradiction.
People "free ride" off experts ideas though, believing they have thought through all the scenarios, and most importantly, figured out why their contradiction isn't actually a contradiction at all
but thats hardly the case all the time....
Manning to Broncos BTW...
ReplyDeletecv--
ReplyDeleteI was discussing that 'potentiality', just, the other night..
personally, I think it's 'Stupid'/'it Blows'..
the Bronc.s should have let Tebow grow..+ the flippin' Fans love Tebow..
they're _______ with a "Good Thing"..
to me, it's a major Mistake..
AAIP
McB,
ReplyDeletere:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=S&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
how do you 'like it', now?
:)
ibid.
@Anon,
ReplyDeleteI don't believe "fundamentals" move the markets at any degree of trend, it only appears that way in hindsight.
I operate in markets by using the market as my indicator, thats what technical analysis is, a study of the market itself. a fundamental analysts first predicts what indicators are important (p/e ratio, consumer sales, initial claims, whatever) and then they have to predict what the market will do in response to their indicators. Their process takes two steps and mine is only one, so I have an immediate advantage as they are further removed from the forecast, to say nothing of the fact that those people all have to believe markets are efficient to follow that process, something I also completely disagree with!
I couldn't tell you the exact reason stocks are where they are today, your guess is as good as mine is, probably isn't "one reason".
Last, its easy for me to bash retail investors for thinking that the stock market should be following the economy because there is exactly 0 logic in that at any degree of trend!
Look, I'm not trying to be rude, but if you think that is a thing that is happening right now and that its "not normal" try this on for size at a larger degree of scale:
If we were to isolate the two large bull markets in stocks after the end of WWII, one from 1974-2000 and the first from 1942-1966 there is one basic conclusion:
In the second great bull market (74-00') the stock market rose by 1,930% and from 42-66 it rose by 971%
By every single meaningful economic meausure you will find that the economy was demonstrably weaker from 74-00 than it was from 1942-1966.
AAIP,
ReplyDeleteits at the mid point of the bolly now (S), RSI still bullish and the extended RSI line from positive divergence should act as support again here
would argue for neutral stance, should "break -out" shortly....
AmenRa,
ReplyDeletewhat's the 'proper terminology' for Options 'Play', were one (Sells or Buys) x # of ITM/ATM/N(ear)TM (Calls or Puts), then does the Opposite with (2/3/4/5/n..)x of OTM of the Same..
hypothetically..
Sell 1 AAPL April 600c
Buy 3 AAPL April 650c
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=AAPL&m=2012-04
~~
that 'Juice' is waay pumpin' in those AAPL Options..
~~
AAIP
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteYeah ~ I don't really have an opinion (Manning) yet...
One good thing (for him), is that they have Ryan Clady protecting his blind side...
Saftety first~ ~ lol
Also ~ You gotta think about the multiples of options that'll be available in the Red Zone (making Tebo, essentially a running back)...
ReplyDeleteand really, "making fun" of the retail client is done by me because its sort of a rite of passage
ReplyDeleteI was there once too, but I desired understanding....why aren't things doing what they are "supposed to"?, so I educated myself and continue to do so daily, I live and breath markets constantly, its easily the thing in life I spend the most time on
that so many others refuse to take that step is in fact amusing to me, that people think they can do this as a hobby and come and compete against me and people way more talented than I am is amusing to me, I don't know anyone that would admit to enjoying losing, but in the markets there appear a large portion of participants that do.
not to Start 'this', again.. :)
ReplyDeletethough, w/:
"... In the second great bull market (74-00') the stock market rose by 1,930% and from 42-66 it rose by 971%
By every single meaningful economic meausure you will find that the economy was demonstrably weaker from 74-00 than it was from 1942-1966.
March 19, 2012 4:54 PM ..."
~~~~
those are Nominal #'s/Valuations..
arguably, the 42-66 #'s would reflective of a ~Stable Gold Price..
the 74-00 #'s? not so much..
$35 to $300 is, still, a 'healthy haircut'..
~~~
more Importantly, the 'Market' is full of opinions, and the different people that carry/act on them..
flibber/flabber chitter/chatter..if you can't tell who's 'Winning' "by the Scoreboard", don't bother bothering with a 'Program', either..
IOW, 'the Tape' is, still, the best way to Measure the 'Markets'..
AAIP
yeah, thats not the point of the discussion at all AAIP and I performed the most basic apples to apples comparison one could make.
ReplyDeletelet me put it another way
the economy doesn't have a larger influence on stock prices based on the price of gold going up or down or the value of the dollar relative to other currencies. You can't say "so long as the /dx is north of 85 the economy has 85% influence on stock prices"
its quite easy to see that people have completely different economic motivations than they do financial ones. When KO goes "on sale" at the store people might buy more of it, when KO goes "on sale" in the market people typically want less.
if one wanted to adjust for dollar values and work off real returns, real S&P levels, etc, as Shiller does a very good job of in IE
guess what?
they find the same things, the numbers are just a little different, markets arent' efficient and stocks don't always go up as a result of the economy doing well, it can't even show that they move together, rather than one leading or lagging.
""I couldn't tell you the exact reason stocks are where they are today, your guess is as good as mine is, probably isn't "one reason".""
ReplyDelete""that so many others refuse to take that step is in fact amusing to me, that people think they can do this as a hobby and come and compete against me and people way more talented than I am is amusing to me, I don't know anyone that would admit to enjoying losing, but in the markets there appear a large portion of participants that do.""
Well, your candor is appreciated...perhaps a bit more with regard to your own lack of understanding for the stock move.
I have been a non-participant in markets for the last couple of years so I have not necessarily lost to you. I have lost instead to inflation, which is frustrating. But the thought of investing in an opaque arena without correlation to freely available and measurable metrics is even more of a turn-off...particularly when that arena has doubled in "value" over the last three years. I am a scientific person with problem-solving skills and prefer to operate in a world with rational rules.
@Anon,
ReplyDeletejust thinking the following and I've got to head out for a bit:
1. If you want to operate in a world with "rational rules" then stay out of markets, forever.
Again, I'm not trying to be rude but what you want (rational rules) and what you are going to get are going to be two different things. Seriously, you have to be prepared to operate in an irrational environment with millions of irrational actors. thats the market, always has been.
As far as measuring things go, I've always found it odd that scientists don't naturally drop everything they know about markets in favor of technical analysis where things can be defined, measured, and repeated in the same manner over and over again.
What you can't measure with any degree of certainty as an individual is the fundamental data! You know, the stuff that comes out 30-180 days after the fact and then is revised 79 times over the next X amount of days. this is to say nothing of the fact that the formula's for said fundamental data keep getting changed over time.
I know if BAC closes at whatever price today then that number isn't going to magically change as today's closing price by the time the end of June rolls around.....see what I'm saying? If the moving average of the stock price this month was X that's still going to be true in 3 months, in 3 years and in 3 decades.
There is a reason that the same technical methods used 100 years ago can still be used today, speculators have habits, they show up in prices.
As for your comment about "losing"... it all depends on when you stopped "playing" and what you want to get
I'm just using nominal levels here but I'd simply point out a few other things like:
The dollar is generally the same price level it was at the peak of the stock market in 2007, so you can still buy more stocks than you could then with the same amount of cash. Same thing with a house almost anywhere in the United States.
You can't buy more metals with it of course, probably not more food....maybe,.... depending on where you live you can buy more gas, maybe more land. You can probably buy several types of businesses cheaper now than you could then, all kinds of biz owners levered up and need to get out still. You can buy more tv, more technology, more music and dvd's, all that stuff you don't need, you can def get more of it cheaper than you could a few years ago.
Have a field day with that last comment crew, I know by the time I get back someone will respond to that.....lol
anyway, with a science background, I would just highly encourage you to give technicals a serious shot and see what you think (assuming you have not done this). Its not voodoo, a far more accurate description would be:
Its math
B22,
ReplyDeleteI stopped playing in 2007 and I have followed this crew since it's days on BR's website, even before the correction three years ago.
The pairing of scientists and technical analysis seems logical...but I have watched bears use TA only to get their asses kicked. Maybe that's the problem -- pairing TA with any bias at all....
AAIP
ReplyDeleteNo bias. No emotion. Be Vulcan.
@Anon,
ReplyDeletehere's a thought
if you pair technicals with anything, then you aren't using technicals
truth be told I haven't read a theorist letter in a few years now as a result of this, I moved on.
Think about this as well, glenn neely has been giving bearish overall forecasts since 2007, he's also traded for a handsome profit since then
Remember that forecasts are not the same thing as trading, and once people get married to forecasts, again, they are no longer doing technical analysis.
https://www.neowave.com/performance.asp
Also, fwiw, if you want to build a very solid base for yourself I would highly suggest you read these books, but do it in this exact order:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Complete-Financial-Technicians/dp/0131531131
http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Explained-Successful-Investment/dp/0071381937
http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Trading-Professional-Constance/dp/0070120625
as a fourth I'd highly suggest Nison's book on candlesticks
I'm so confident that if you take the time and effort to read all of these books and practice the methods in them, especially the third book, that you will be able to approach markets with a sense of calm as well as confidence and then you'll also better understand why I don't have a soft spot for retail investors anymore.
Anytime you want to chat about any concept in any of those books I'm around and willing to do so. I've read them all cover to cover more than once.
Thanks for the suggestions, B22. Using techincals alone seems to be working for you -- at the very least, you have confidence about your method. It has to be difficult to block out ALL of the macroeconomics in the background. Even neowave experts seem to tie major market moves to catalysts of one form or another....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.neowave.com/audiointerviews/Transcript-IkeIossifGlennNeely-Feb%202012.pdf
@Anon,
ReplyDelete"Even neowave experts seem to tie major market moves to catalysts of one form or another"
I'd be very careful with that conclusion. The first important thing to point out is that there is only one guy doing wave analysis in that article which is Neely and thats much different than what Iossif does. Neo-wave is an extension of RN Elliotts original works, which I'd suggest reading after those other books are completed. Wave analysis is very powerful.
I'd also suggest a quick read of this:
http://www.neowave.com/qow/qow-archive-1049.asp
I don't really want to get into the discussion because its not appropriate on-line but wave theorists have very different ideas than the average person on how news gets created and what it means for markets, if anything at all.....
the simple explanation for a wavers perspective is that the news doesn't lead the market but rather the market as a whole IS the news, it is massive social interaction amongst hundreds of millions of people that create the price trends in markets, the news doesn't create trends though certainly news "events" can spike prices up or down for a short period of time.
If you are trying to reconcile the current news within the context of the market price then you most certainly aren't doing technical analysis.
again, its very hard to have this discussion in an on-line forum but thats about as well as I can explain it quickly
Second, I only skimmed that article for the moment but these guys aren't following the news at all in search of catalysts. Instead they are following their indicators and it is the indicator from which choices are made about buying or selling rather than some catalyst. Neely talks about how he forecast the decline in 01-02 but was confused as to why the economy hadn't done much worse...Iosiff talked about Dines, another guy at Timers Digest that told him the Nas drop would show up in the economy "five years later"....if they were sitting around waiting for the economic "news" to confirm their market views they missed every single trade!
I know all about Iossif as I'm a sub to Timers Digest for a little while now.....while they may discuss a "catalyst" such as Europe in there he FIRST mentioned his indicator tool, which are several studies built into one indicator, and the fact that IT was warning him well before the market topped (as he tells the story about how the indicator warned him about 10 months before the price peak) and therefore before the news turned bad and an obvious catalyst could be identified he already used technicals to do X.