Sunday, October 2, 2011

Week Ahead Post: Dr. Copper

I've been meaning to address Copper, but the some of the moves have occurred so suddenly and violently, it's been difficult to catch up.

What a disaster that market has become.  Check out the monthly candlesticks:



Anyone who purchased Copper in the last 12 months is UNDERWATER.


"Nuff' Said..."


If Dr. Copper really has a Ph.D on the World Economy, then there is something very ominous in the air-that chart looks horrendously awful.

Attached below is more detailed commentary on the Red Metal

Copper Commentary 2OCT11




Addendum:

I really didn't have much to add on to last week's Market commentary.  Silver and Gold both got SMASH-FACED in the early overnight sessions (last week) but both markets held the critical support lines that were highlighted.  I still see both those metals chopping/grinding at the lower ranges this week.  The early week bounces were "nice" but they weren't that impressive or compelling.

S&P500 remains a market you don't want to OWN.  The corrective action off the lows remains a quagmire of a pattern that is difficult to interpret.  If the lower range (1100-1120) finally gives way, it should be a quick meltdown towards 1020-1050.  At that point we'll be looking towards the Fed and Congress to "save the economy."  Pfft.  As if....
at

44 comments:

  1. AmenRaOctober 2, 2011 at 1:54 PM

    This Chicago vs Carolina game makes no sense. Where's the Carolina defense? Hester almost runs back one kickoff and then runs back a punt on the next Carolina three and out.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AmenRaOctober 2, 2011 at 1:57 PM

    Bears also can't cover Smith.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AmenRaOctober 2, 2011 at 2:06 PM

    Andy T

    How will the copper price affect China considering how much of it they have warehoused?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Andy TOctober 2, 2011 at 3:57 PM

    How bout them Texans? They beat the shit out of big Ben and the steelers?

    ReplyDelete
  5. ConfuciousOctober 2, 2011 at 4:00 PM

    Weren't Chinese speculators/investors allowed to use copper as collateral? That was pretty genius idea.....not.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AmenRaOctober 2, 2011 at 4:18 PM

    Ummm how about the Cowboys implosion? Lions down three and are now at first and goal.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AmenRaOctober 2, 2011 at 4:20 PM

    Confucious

    Margin calls in full force. People checking caller ID to see if it's THE CALL.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Andy TOctober 2, 2011 at 5:14 PM

    Micahel turner "going off" finally....

    ReplyDelete
  9. Andy TOctober 2, 2011 at 7:06 PM

    Aaron Rodgers = QB Beast

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousOctober 2, 2011 at 9:38 PM

    anyone paying much/any heed to articles like..
    http://www.blacklistednews.com/Prophets_Of_Doom%3A_12_Shocking_Quotes_From_Insiders_About_The_Horrific_Economic_Crisis_That_Is_Almost_Here_/15950/0/38/38/Y/M.html

    "...#9 Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackerman: “It is an open secret that numerous European banks would not survive having to revalue sovereign debt held on the banking book at market levels.”

    #10 Alastair Newton, a strategist for Nomura Securities in London: “We believe that we are just about to enter a critical period for the eurozone and that the threat of some sort of break-up between now and year-end is greater than it has been at any time since the start of the crisis”

    #11 Ann Barnhardt, head of Barnhardt Capital Management, Inc.: “It’s over. There is no coming back from this. The only thing that can happen is a total and complete collapse of EVERYTHING we now know, and humanity starts from scratch. And if you think that this collapse is going to play out without one hell of a big hot war, you are sadly, sadly mistaken.”..."

    ibid.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AmenRaOctober 2, 2011 at 10:31 PM

    AAIP

    Read through the list earlier. If and when the euro collapse starts in earnest it will be phenomenal.

    ReplyDelete
  12. AmenRaOctober 2, 2011 at 10:50 PM

    This game is starting to get interesting...

    ReplyDelete
  13. AmenRaOctober 2, 2011 at 10:52 PM

    and then there's an interception.

    ReplyDelete
  14. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 8:26 AM

    Futures tried to make a move higher but the DXY moved higher instead.

    ReplyDelete
  15. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 9:35 AM

    Weekly 3LB Update 9/30/11

    Lo siento. There was a monthly 3LB confirmation on SPX of the reversal down.

    ReplyDelete
  16. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 10:52 AM

    The test of 1120 will commence shortly...

    ReplyDelete
  17. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 11:37 AM

    10yr 1.852%. Does anyone really want to hold it for ten years at this rate?

    ReplyDelete
  18. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 11:43 AM

    2s30s breaking below its SMA(233) on the weekly chart.

    ReplyDelete
  19. LeftbackOctober 3, 2011 at 11:57 AM

    "10yr 1.852%.
    Does anyone really want to hold it for ten years at this rate?"

    No, but I did take her home for the weekend.
    However I will kick her out of bed after the next Waterfall™.

    ReplyDelete
  20. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 11:58 AM

    Is it really that bad over at BAC?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-america-locks-out-its-online-clients-second-day-row

    ReplyDelete
  21. Andy TOctober 3, 2011 at 12:23 PM

    Little bouncy bouncy on copper at 3.00....

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousOctober 3, 2011 at 12:58 PM

    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=S

    LOD: 2.97

    this thing isn't looking, very, "Triple-Bottom-y"

    AAIP

    ReplyDelete
  23. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 1:17 PM

    1108.86 SMA(144) weekly chart
    1108.88 50.0% minor retrace daily chart

    Damn near exact price on two different time periods.
    Which BTW is near the mid of the lows from 8/9 & 9/22.

    JTOL.

    ReplyDelete
  24. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 1:22 PM

    Oh my. Did I just see a low yield of 1.797% on the 10yr?

    ReplyDelete
  25. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 1:48 PM

    There's currently a brawl going on at 1108ish.

    ReplyDelete
  26. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 1:58 PM

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-02/dollar-beating-all-assets-in-september-undermines-s-p-downgrade.html
    Dollar Beating All Assets in September Undermines S&P U.S. Debt Downgrade

    Really?!?

    ReplyDelete
  27. spoonmanOctober 3, 2011 at 2:05 PM

    I will say that I have enjoyed owning the dollar for the last few months. Wish I had been more agressive...

    ReplyDelete
  28. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 2:05 PM

    HAHAHAHA 10yr low 1.776%. How appropriate.

    ReplyDelete
  29. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 2:09 PM

    spoonman

    I think they are trying to say that S&P must have been wrong about US debt.

    quote:
    "Gains for the world’s reserve currency show investor confidence in the nation’s creditworthiness after Standard & Poor’s stripped the U.S. of its AAA rating two months ago. Even with Republican leaders in Congress joining critics of Federal Reserve stimulus measures, the currency bested all 16 of its most-traded counterparts in September for the first month in more than three years."

    ReplyDelete
  30. Andy TOctober 3, 2011 at 2:13 PM

    How Does AMR go bankrupt?

    Every single plane i've been on has been PACKED...

    And with all the baggage fees and other bullshit....it's really hard to fathom

    ReplyDelete
  31. spoonmanOctober 3, 2011 at 2:24 PM

    Ra,
    The US can be nothing but AAA. When they need to pay you, they go into the back room, print up the dollars and hand them to you. Whether or not you want them at that point is for you to decide. That whole downgrade didn't really make sense to me.

    ReplyDelete
  32. LeftbackOctober 3, 2011 at 3:04 PM

    How Does AMR go bankrupt?

    Easy. All the value was sucked out by upper management compensation and fuel costs, leaving pilots, bondholders and shareholders at the mercy of a government bailout.

    A microcosm of America.

    ReplyDelete
  33. AnonymousOctober 3, 2011 at 3:21 PM

    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=S

    ~2.77

    decidedly, not 'Triple-Bottom-y' :)

    AAIP

    ReplyDelete
  34. AnonymousOctober 3, 2011 at 3:24 PM

    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AMR&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

    sub-2

    also, many 'articles' on AMR..

    ibid.

    ReplyDelete
  35. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 3:28 PM

    4Q11 starts off with a bull massacre. News at 11.

    ReplyDelete
  36. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 3:31 PM

    BTW BAC price getting very close to forced selling by MMFs. Got to hold that $5 or else.

    ReplyDelete
  37. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 4:07 PM

    Obiwan to bulls: "That was not the close you were looking for."

    ReplyDelete
  38. AnonymousOctober 3, 2011 at 4:40 PM

    Mutual Mother Funds?

    ReplyDelete
  39. LeftbackOctober 3, 2011 at 4:42 PM

    QE3 comes closer....
    Or has the QE3 already been "executed" by this panic?

    The Fed need do little buying, merely slow the pace of sales.
    Meanwhile investors should go out along the risk curve. Easy....

    No deflationary crash. Liquidity can flow quickly.
    A monster squeeze is setting up again.

    ReplyDelete
  40. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 4:48 PM

    Money Market Funds and a rule that any equity they own (supposedly) has to be over $5.

    ReplyDelete
  41. LeftbackOctober 3, 2011 at 4:53 PM

    Why would money market funds own dodgy equities?
    Do you mean pension funds?

    ReplyDelete
  42. LeftbackOctober 3, 2011 at 4:54 PM

    How much lower do US banks go before they need recapitalizing?
    Surely QE3 would be preferable to TARP 2?

    ReplyDelete
  43. AmenRaOctober 3, 2011 at 5:29 PM

    LB

    Honestly I just know it's one of them that has a rule against equities under $5.

    ReplyDelete
  44. AnonymousOctober 3, 2011 at 8:15 PM

    I think it is most stock mutual funds that can't own stuff under $5......

    ReplyDelete