RBS (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 6.81
rev= 11.31; mid= 9.06
RBS broke below its 61.8% retrace (8.38) last week. It's below all SMA's. It's trending down on the weekly 3LB. It has been trending down on the monthy 3LB since Jan 2008. So it never had a recovery.
GOLD (weekly info)
new high 1852.20
trend=up
high= 1852.20
rev= 1631.20; mid= 1741.70
Even though the Shanghai Gold Exchange hiked margins gold is still trying to make a new weekly high (for now). Currently the weekly chart is forming an evening star (reversal). It's still above all SMA's. It's well above (6.27%) the weekly 3LB mid. It appears even margin hikes have half lives.
BAC (weekly info)
new low 6.97
trend=down
low= 6.97
rev= 9.71; mid= 8.34
BAC has fallen and it can't get up. It's below its 61.8% retrace (7.83) and testing its 38.2% minor retrace (6.06). It's below all SMA's. The gap on the weekly chart is going to provide major resistance. It may need to send out the bat signal (JPM) soon.
You know, it's funny, I was reading bobble heads blog maybe a week or two ago and there was some thread regarding P. Krugman, economic superstar. Someone asked Fuzzy why he thought Krugman had any credibility and his responose was something along the lines of: "Nobel, enough said"
ReplyDeleteand you know, who could argue with that given magic insights like this one:
"If we discovered that, you know, space aliens were planning to attack and we needed a massive buildup to counter the space alien threat and really inflation and budget deficits took secondary place to that, this slump would be over in 18 months," he said. "And then if we discovered, oops, we made a mistake, there aren't any aliens, we'd be better"
@ben
ReplyDeleteof course we'd be better...
the world would be safe from aliens... not economists though...
ben22
ReplyDeleteDid you see or hear about this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hopefully-fake-paul-krugman-laments-lack-death-and-destruction-following-todays-earthquake
Basically "Krugman" or someone using his name posted that the EQ should have caused more damage which would be good for the economy.
ben22
ReplyDeleteOh yeah. Check Krugman's blood. at least make sure it's red. (/sarc)
I still spy the the H&S on the sp futures that targets 1186....
ReplyDelete@AndyT
ReplyDeleteWill it close the gap today?
I guess they didn't scare away enough traders from gold. Maybe they're planning on taking delivery so no need to roll.
ReplyDeleteRa,
ReplyDeletethat's something, I never really agree with anything Krugman says, but, who can argue with a Nobel winner.....like Obama.
Anyway, someone like me that didn't go to "one of the worlds greatest institutions of higher learning" such as Harvard or Princeton
I wonder, are those the sort of "thought experiments" that go on there?
Wow, I really missed out....
"Maybe they're planning on taking delivery so no need to roll."
ReplyDeleteRa,
I highly doubt the John's playing with gold futures are in line to take delivery, as if they are ready to pony up the other 165k or so to do so, as if many of them even have that kind of cash.
For those of you that don't know... Here was Krugman's Nobel Laureate equation...
ReplyDelete"X" humans dead * QEx = +'n' gdp
Fuzzy is working on his right now... It goes something like...
"X" humans dead * QEx/'typical co-efficient' = +'n' feet of extra yacht length
ben22
ReplyDeleteOnly the ones who didn't use leverage and/or margin.
Ra,
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking one could find data on it
but I can tell you, I'd be floored if retail traders in futures were not, in many or most instances, operating on the minimum collateral for a futures contract, for gold that is about $8k to control about 180k of gold.
The average 401k balance (by far John's biggest holding tank for assets) is roughly 50k last I saw and something like 1 in 3 have a loan
there aren't tons of people out there that could easily pony up a liquid 180k to take delivery of a gold contract
ben22
ReplyDeleteTrue.
LTD for Au (futures) is 8/29/11 and options expiry is 8/25/11.
Ra,
ReplyDeleteok, most stocks right now that I'm watching have really similar pattern at the recent lows
what do you call them?
Is it a hammer, it's not morningstar patterns I'm seeing, the candles aren't right for those
It seems the lower shadow on a lot of charts served as good support on the puker down last week and we made higher lows all over but I just don't know what the pattern is
what do you think?
you could look at CAT....any big stock really, they all generally look the same
there aren't tons of people out there that could easily pony up a liquid 180k to take delivery of a gold contract
ReplyDelete---
Not to mention TRUST the assayer
there aren't tons of people out there that could easily pony up a liquid 180k to take delivery of a gold contract
ReplyDeleteNot to mention TRUST the assayer
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SODA&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
ReplyDeletey'Ouch!
no 'bounceback', on that POS..
AAIP
It seems the lower shadow on a lot of charts served as good support on the puker down last week and we made higher lows all over but I just don't know what the pattern is
ReplyDelete---
The junior varsity is being asked to manage the game... Hand off on first & second down... check down to the outlet receiver in the progression on 3rd down... then punt...
The first string comes back after labor day...
SODA,
ReplyDeletean option traders BFF.
McB,
ReplyDeleteI am glad to hear that you're 'kenning' the Options-Gambit..
A Field (of Play, truly, Rich in Fleece..a Good Place to acquire the, sought after, 'Woolen Pants', necessary, to make the, incipient, Winter, all the more 'bear'able ;)
ibid.
ben22
ReplyDeleteI see CAT as a bearish long candle on the weekly chart. 81.17 (the 38.2%) and 81.26 (the SMA(89)) are support this week. On the daily chart there is a gap 8/17-8/18 that will serve as resistance. Also a hammer on 8/9 that wasn't confirmed and an inverted hammer on 8/19 that wasn't confirmed either.
ben22
ReplyDeleteOddly enough FDX is the same as CAT on the daily chart.
Thanks Ra...it's those 8/9 sticks I'm mostly looking at in a lot of the charts
ReplyDeletesome market wizards for the day:
Steve Cohen, from SAC:
Of the tens of thousands of trades that you have done, do any stand out?
One time, I shorted a million shares of a stock and it dropped $10 the next day. That was pretty good.
What was the story there?
Without naming any names - or else the company will never speak to me again - there were a number of other stocks in the sector that were under pressure, but this stock was going up because it was being added to the S&P Index. I figured that once the index fund buying was completed, the stock would sell off. The day after I went short, the company reported disappointing earnings, and the trade turned into a home run.
Any positions you ever lost sleep over?
Nah, I think I sleep pretty good. I don't lose sleep over any positions. Maybe a better question might be: What was the worst day I ever had?
Okay, what was the worst day you ever had?
One day I lost about $4 to $5 million.
What happened on that day?
I don't even remember. The reality is that if you trade long enough everything happens.
ben22
ReplyDeleteQOTD
"The reality is that if you trade long enough everything happens."
CV's prediction for anyone who goes against me in fantasy football this year...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJnKm6ftPu0
Jebus!, gold down $100 or so :/
ReplyDeleteout of all of my trades, except UNG calls, pfft, about even on that trade tho, probably a fail...
B22, $50K average really doesn't seem like much but in this plastic world where peeps think they can spend more than they have, why would they save? Mindset of "I'll start to save later" never happens... it's a shame.
Anyone know anything about fishing boats? Have a line on some confiscated boats going to auction, might be possible to buy for 10-20c on the $. Bidders get together before the auction and discuss what they want, so nobody steps on each others bids. What a racket!... LOL
They're not old wooden boats, many are about 10 years old and fully equipped. Also, storage shouldn't be a problem, buy a commercial fishing license then park it for $35/mo for up to 6 months, just say it's being worked on that's why its not out fishing. Should be enough time to sell it.
Bernanke arrived at Jackson Hole wearing a bear skin coat...
ReplyDelete@Q's
ReplyDeleteI'm no expert but I once co-owned a 40 footer (sail)...which I kept moored at a club in Kingston, Ontario. It was a lot of fun for a couple of years...but my limited experience suggests it's a hole in the water into which you pore a lot of money. There are a lot of factors involved...many of which neophytes are unaware...so do the research and the due diligence. Imo...it's not that simple and these things aren't usually "investment grade".
"pour" your money....holes everywhere you look.
ReplyDeleteGold shorts.
ReplyDeleteVery powerful.
cv--
ReplyDeletethese guys..
www.lancasterfarming.com
cover Auctions, and their Results, over a fairly large Territory..
though, I can't see to find, or they don't Post, them, Online..
may have to Call them, for add'l Info/Detail(s)..
AAIP
also, speaking of 'Boats'="holes in the Water"..cv--, do you have any Horses?
http://www.lancasterfarming.com/classifieds/auctions/livestock/