Credit Suisse (weekly info)
new low 26.19
trend=down
low= 26.19
rev= 35.94; mid= 31.07
Poor Credit Suisse breaking below its 38.2% minor retrace (27.05) and opening the door for a test of the 0.0% retrace (18.90). It's below all SMA's. It had a monthly 3LB reversal down in July. It's still trending down on the weekly 3LB.
UBS (weekly info)
new low 13.31
trend=down
low= 13.31
rev= 16.80; mid= 15.06
UBS is not the picture of health either. It's below its 38.2% minor retrace (14.83). It's below all SMA's. But it hasn't had a monthly 3LB reversal yet. That'll happen if it closes 4.5% lower.
Gold/Oil Ratio (weekly info)
new high 22.29
trend=up
high= 22.29
rev= 17.02; mid= 19.66
@Amen (12:58)
ReplyDeletePart & parcel of the "Chicago style politics" that I referred to on this blog the other week...
& let's see what else?
Oh yeah...
- Jackson Hole is this week
- Rebels are in downtown Tripoli - Which the "Assasinator in Chief" will take cre
dit for)
- The "Vacation Taker in Chief" gives (the most important speech in the history of mankind in a week or so [you know - as soon as he gets back from Martha's Vineyard])
"IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNEd"
Yeah - pretty much... (but I'd like to see that 1108 print first - & close under it... You know - just so as to BE SURE all TPTB who have nothing to do with anything can find a reason to save the world by either:
- killing someone
- deposing someone
- firing someone
- hiring someone
- printing money
- kicking some ass
Ritholtz coming out & saying he's not 100% in bond anymore (& upping his cash) in 8...5...3...2... ['after' 1st long green candle]....
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDelete...also, I asked about this yesterday... But could you put up 2 charts?...
Au:Crude
Au:Gaso
Radiation Will Pollute the Area Around Chernobyl For 5 to 10 Times Longer Than Models Predicted - Between 180 and 320 Years
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/08/radiation-will-pollute-area-around.html
Going to have to get some gas today, wish Bachmann was president, it'd be under $2 for sure......
ReplyDeleteFaber on CNBC, to summarize
ReplyDelete"own physical gold, that's what I prefer, not the paper, and don't keep it in the United States"
then they give him dirty looks and smartly respond
"what are you so worried about, you think the banks are going to abscond with your gold"
look, only a complete fool would ridicule someone with a statement like that, it basically reveals a lack of knowledge about what has literally taken place many times before, including in the United States.
Of course, we all know the prerequisite to being a morning anchor on CNBC which is that you are not allowed to have any background in markets or knowledge of financial history.
Rosenberg didn't take very kindly to being introduced as "permabear" David Rosenberg either.
Also, all this hand wringing over "what it means" that the GLD is "bigger" than the SPY....lol, really?
...Forget the news, if you want to trade successfully.
ReplyDeleteMany news stories, particularly when it comes to the markets, are basically fed to reporters by folks who have a vested interest in that particular market. I’ve seen this happen time and time again, when information is given to an online anchor or someone else who is on air and reading the latest news. The information that they report, may be not accurate. In the competitive rush to get news online, and be the 1st to break a story, very few stories are ever checked and triple checked.
So we wake up this morning with the potential conflict in Libya over, and Libya’s Colonel Qaddafi’s 42-year reign of insanity has maybe come to an end. Based on that news, the Dow rallies up over 200 points. Let’s see, that little conflict cost the US about 1 trillion dollars, money we don’t have. How could that be good for the market? Now we are tying the news in Libya to the markets here and the terrible economic conditions that exist – it is a stretch by anyone’s imagination. The truth is, that the markets probably rallied based on a short covering. Many active traders went home with short positions over the weekend. When the markets did not follow through to the downside they quickly covered their short positions and pushed the market higher.
So here’s my advice, do not pay too much attention to the news. Let the market, and the price action give you all the direction you need. Market action is the # 1 item to watch to be a successful trader.
Now, let’s go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 90
Remember, despite the big call this morning, the major trend is down for the equity markets. Today’s strong rally was probably an opportunity to go short. We see this market going lower....
http://club.ino.com/trading/2011/08/forget-the-news-if-you-want-to-trade-successfully/
AAIP
McB,
ReplyDeletethe US-version of CNBC's 'Morning Show', "Squawk Box", is a Clown Show (at the Risk of sullying the Reputation of "Clowns"...
ibid.
AAIP
ReplyDeleteI heard Max K. say something real smart yesterday
"most of the people being critical of the uprising will be joining the uprising themselves soon enough"
yes.....the herd will likely get bigger
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-23/crisis-too-big-for-developed-world-ex-imf-head.html
ReplyDeleteFinancial Crisis Is Too Big for Developed World to Cope, Ex-IMF Head Says
BinT,
ReplyDeletemore 'drumbeats' for a 'new (World) Currency'..
those types of 'releases', soften up the herd..
also, a big Reason why we treated a ~month long, wall-to-wall, 'Coverage' of 'Debt Ceiling/Default/Deficit' "Issues"..
AAIP
Mc22,
are you being facetious? :)
nope, being serious
ReplyDeletehe was specifically discussing the people that are calling for harsher punishment of those rioting in London
you can see the video at BR's, it's about 30 minutes/video section
he was basically saying that the bankers are criminals, more and more people will figure this out and when they do, they won't be inclined to be so critical toward young rioters stealing while the bankers steal so much more in broad daylight and nobody says a word let alone suggests hars punishment or any punishment at all!
McB,
ReplyDeleteyes, I hear you..
personally, I tend to agree with that take..
also, likely, why we're going to see more of this:
New UAV for Police Can Taze People from Above
August 22nd, 2011
Via: Singularity Hub:
The ShadowHawk is the seven-foot, 50-lb copter that is the toy-sized dealer of destruction from Texas-based Vanguard Defense Industries. The copter is the result of three years of development. If being tased from above sounds frightening to you, I suggest you cease all criminal activities now (simply staying indoors is an option). There’s a good chance ShadowHawk’s spine tingling buzz could be heard approaching a city near you. As a sign of new law enforcement tactics to come, the Sheriff’s Office of Montgomery County, Texas was recently awarded a grant by the Department of Homeland Security for a squadron of ShadowHawks. Montgomery County’s Chief Deputy Randy McDaniel is psyched. “We are very excited about the funding and looking forward to placing the equipment into the field. Both my narcotics and SWAT units have been looking at numerous ways to deploy it and I absolutely believe it will become a critical component on all SWAT callouts and narcotics raids and emergency management operations.”
Posted in Police State, Surveillance, Technology | Top Of Page
One Response to “New UAV for Police Can Taze People from Above”
neologiste Says:
August 23rd, 2011 at 12:21 am
as disturbing as the concept itself is, i wasn’t really *scared* until he said,
“…and emergency management operations.”
tasers were inspired by cattle prods, weren’t they? i can see it, now.
http://cryptogon.com/?p=24405
ibid.
Richmond Fed -10, New Home Sales 298k. Both WTE. Market rallies.
ReplyDeleteI see a lot of articles floating around, and now one from the Fed, about how boomers are going to sell all their stocks and depress the market
ReplyDeleteI'm not really in the camp that says demographics drive financial prices in the net so I'm skeptical of such statements, I suppose I'm somewhat biased by the fact that I've met many dozens of 80 year olds that have a 75/25 allocation of stocks to bonds/cash and carry little or no concern about having this type of allocation.
Socionomics students don't agree with demographic causality of financial prices, Harry Dent on the other hand seems to have dedicated his career to that type of thinking and he's been successful so far as I know.
I find the debate very interesting but lean toward the side of saying that if the social mood is positive/bullish, boomers will own stocks just the same.
Our Boomers are very very deficient in the area of retirement savings, that is a concern. Redemptions will keep a cap on the market to some extent. But, for f***'s sake, most American Sixpacks have saved JACK and own ZERO stocks, so the idea that they will be selling stocks is a bit silly.
ReplyDeleteThis latter is why hyperinflation is out. The Sixpacks would starve and demand would disappear completely. Hyperinflation just can't occur with an aging population that votes.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteThanks for the Au:Crude chart... What do those 'weekly' sticks tell you? (I'm asking - that's not rhetorical)...
Might be almost time for a little Crude arb over Au (for a bit)... The chart you put up there hints to me that either a war or embargo will be forthcoming within 2 months...
But I'm a lunatic...
---
don't want to be a nusiance... but can you rustle up one with Au:Gasoline
I mean... Can't you see the 'pins' lining up?
ReplyDelete- Ex-Citi COO now heading up S&P
- Citi owned by who? SRF...
- Elections coming next year
Plan?
Crude rallies to $150 by next summer... Au (which everyone & his nephew is on board with - except CV [who arbed back NEUTRAL on last week]) pulls back...
By next summer, they'll find a straw man (or create one) to blame the high gas prices on... Obama will be the "ass kicking" man to ride in on his mulatto horse & save everyone...
Ratio (as in chart above), retests support levels... SRF takes the petro dollars (made in the process) & funnels them straight into gold bricks...
Obama wins election & goes over to do his 2nd ceremonial "bow" job to the king...
How hard is that?
P.S...
ReplyDeleteIf you need the 'simpleton' version of that scenario...
Just go over to the Ritholtz blog... He'll explain to you how it's all part of a "typical recovery"...
It's a "typical recovery" all right... At least until the police & firefighter unions get outsourced to Botswana...
CV
ReplyDeleteThe shooting star wasn't confirmed. It would have been more bearish if it had lower close. So it appears that gold wants to continue to outperform oil.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteMarkets seem to be clearly in...
MUST...NOT...FALTER...UNTIL...BERNANK...SPEECH...ON FRIDAY...
mode...
Looks like traders picked a bad week to NOT go on vacation - lol...
---
Then again... one never knows when the "FUN" is about to begin...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLYC7ltxOrk
"I'm back! I'm black! The mountainz about to crack!"
ReplyDelete@Amen (11:57)
ReplyDeleteThanks... I appreciate the comment (& the chart)...
Kno something tho... I'm going to go ahead & take the 'other side' of what the STICKS may be suggesting there...
Not to piss YOU off... But just to underline something (you people have seen (last year) & will see this (this year) with the NFL picks CV publishes...
You're not gambling against the LINES & POINTSPREADS... You're gambling against the BOOKIES...
Remember that...
CV
ReplyDeleteI kind of figured that out. Sunday evening all you heard was "BB this. BB that." Pretty much a sign that the algos were being programmed to keep the market flat to higher until Friday. That could get derailed if an EU bank implodes or is fully locked out of the market.
CV
ReplyDeleteTrue but the CBs were net sellers of gold back then. CBs are buying as much as they can get their hands on now.
Irene bitchez!
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-irene-marks-1st-big-us-threat-years-071828290.html
---
Of course... It won't REALLY be important until it veers off towards Martha's Vineyard...
Then... The news channels will REALLY have a conundrum on their hands as to whether feature the...
- Obama vacation in danger story
or the...
- Kim Kardashian got a tattoo removed from her ass story
In any case - those 'broadcast newsers' are sure to be earning their deserved pay this week...
CV,
ReplyDeleteYour gold-oil play seems quite interesting. Everybody is in the gold rush (too many articles in the media) and many people also expecting oil will go down because Libia problem has been solved plus lower worlwide gdp expectations. So, it seems there could be a lot of long gold, short oil people that can be squezeed. How do you plan to play that? What instrument are you goint to choose for long oil? Brent related or WTI related? I guess you will short gold on paper, or you will just sell your long position.
Cacerolo
@Amen
ReplyDeleteThat could get derailed if an EU bank implodes or is fully locked out of the market.
---
Yeah... & like that's going to happen in 8...5...3...2... lol
Look - I'll go on record here & say that... as time goes by... all these 'central planning' SHINDIGS (Jackson Hole - Davos - Bilderberg, whatever) will be 'timed' (probably already are), at moments of minimum market liquidity...
It goes back to the comment I made on last nights thread (which probably nobody read... & having to do with WTI-Brent spreads)...
Central planning doesn't work... But that doesn't stop anyone from TRYING... & the TRYING can 'deflect' trajectory for periods of time...
I'll get back to the EU (& it's implications in the WTI-Brent ebate at a later time)...
---
On this...
True but the CBs were net sellers of gold back then. CBs are buying as much as they can get their hands on now.
Which is EXACTLY what they want you to think...
Bagholders bitchez!
Gold isn't any different than any other asset bubble... To the whales, it's a MARGIN game... Get grandma to buy at a premium...
I really believe that (Steve) "Luv the Gold Trend" (yesterday's thread) had the MACRO called correctly... I'm 100% on board with his view...
Consolidation bitchez!
Time to ARB... & wait it out... Next time to buy gold will be when some some news story (or series of them) comes out that there's actually more gold in the world than fat in Kim Kardashian's ass...
I'd be inclined to go along with Martin Armstrong here & say that 6/13 might be the timeframe of interest...
The Gold:Oil ratio is at a ridiculous level.
ReplyDeleteMean reversion, bitchez.
@Cacerolo
ReplyDeleteActually... I thought it was YOU who made the most intelligent comment I read on this blog this week...
Paraphrasing here...
"Ought to buy NAT GAS (propane containers) & store them in caves"...
IMO - yes, yes, & yes... As far as the eye can see... That is absolutely the best play an individual person could do in this moment...
@LB
ReplyDelete+1
Does anybody know how much debt uncle Sam has sell so far this month, and how much they are planning to sell the rest of the month. My guess is that this summer crisis works perfect for the Treasury to sell as much as possible at very low rates. At the end of the day, if you were the Treasury, and you have a huge debt coming due, your main concern should be what I have to do to get an even cheaper finance. So, scaring people a couple of times per year work just find to keep rates low without completely broken the markets. I am starting to think this is just becoming a game of push and pull, until something really gets out of control.
ReplyDeleteCacerolo
TuRn ArOuNd TuEsDaY
ReplyDeleteSold 12 OZ gold yesterday, couldn't do it all at once tho, frik'n rules! Funny thing is the wife says she gets 1/2, I agree, but, I find she wants 1/2 of the total. Try and explain! she only gets 1/2 of the profits when the money is sitting on top of the table and she's staring at it!
cv, not sure about oil to $150 but agree it goes up. Funny how oil jumped up about when you started talking about it here today. I've been saying buy natty when it goes below $4 for a while now, have some but not fully positioned yet.
B22, more than 50% of the govt. peeps I talked to today say they think most of their money is in the TSP "C" or "S" fund. Who knows what they're thinking.
@Cacerolo
ReplyDeleteWhat instrument are you goint to choose for long oil? Brent related or WTI related? I guess you will short gold on paper, or you will just sell your long position...
---
Unfortunately... FOR ME... I'm not treating these 'arb's as PAPER MONEY MAKING endeavors...
Actually... The only way for that really to work for me is to STOCK UP as much as possible (on physical)...
Can't do that with crude (because unfortunately I don't own a Supermax, or a 'cracking tower')...
Really - the closest you can come is to a to a modest supply of red diesel (which has about the longest 'shelf life' over gasoline if stored in solid jerry cans)... If you have the land, you could go with above ground containers... But its really just TEOTWAWKI game...
I actually believe LESS in the TEOTWAWKI scenario than I did just a few years ago... &... more miraculously... I believe it's largely BECAUSE of the 'bionic can kicking' that has taken place...
Others don't believe that... Others believe that MARKETS are more bionic than 'can kickers'... I don't think that's true anymore (though I WANT to believe it is)...
Nowadays I think it's more a 'Tortoise & Hare' thing... (Markets being the TORTOISE, of course)...
The highest the gold:oil was over SMA(13) was 95.46% during 2/09. This month the SMA(13) currently is 15.43. So that would mean the ratio would be 30.159. Using todays prices then gold=2599.71 or oil=61.57. Which one has the greatest possibility?
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteThe problem with natural gas storage is that it can`t be storage in an easy way. So, you have to liquified it or put it back in a cave. Neither of both ways is accesible for regular people, so the ways to invest are either to buy very long term futures which carry a lot of premium or buying producers which is a headache since many of those companies way overstate their reserves and their production costs are really a mystery. The only way to pick good producers is if you are really involved in the natural gas business which I am not. So, the privilege of getting a nice profit through natural gas is reserved for a few ones (as almost with any investment but in this case is even more complicated). With some other commodities you can just rent a warehouse and keep your stock in there but with natural gas that is tough.
Cacerolo
@Q's
ReplyDeleteNatty is CLEARLY the best game in town (& frankly - has been for awhile)...
NOT - mind you... For PAPER profits (trading & all that)...
I'm talking about your LIVES bitchez!
- You can run the electricity in your house off it
- You can cook food with it
- It provides heat (AC too)
- You can run your vehicles with it
- modify ANY engine you have to run off it
ALL OF YOU... Are being given a 'golden opportunity'... here... to STOCKPILE (what I consider will be the most precious commodity [& it's STORABLE] resource which will get you thru the next 50 year timespan)...
Believe me... Ignore me... WTF do I care???
---
Having said that... If you take that advice as going out & buying a Nat Gas ETF... Then you ought to just be frequenting one of those 'other' blogs (that they spend all their time talking about liberal politics)... Because it means you understood NONE of what I just said...
Squeeze is on.....
ReplyDeleteHope the Creditcane™ isn't visiting the Proctologist.
My divvys are underperforming which means it's a dogshit rally. Banks and other crap leading the market higher. But it's OK b/c...
We have massive longs.
Natty/Oil ETF = mechanism to separate JOHN E from $
ReplyDelete@Cacerolo
ReplyDeleteSo, you have to liquified it or put it back in a cave. Neither of both ways is accesible for regular people
---
WRONG!!!
You buy 100 lb. propane containers... Fill them up with 'liquefied' (which - to the un-initiated is basically FROZEN vs. the standard humidity of atmospheric air)...
You then put the CONTAINERS in caves... (or - you could just put them in your garage... But if your house ever caught fire & you were sitting there with 100 or so of those bad boys - Ha Ha!... It would be a hell of a weenie roast)... :-)
The containers don't cost as much as you think... Hell - you can buy 20 lb ones at any Home depot for $27 bucks each... & most of those are already purged...
cv, don't want to get into a long blown-out discussion about this AND I DO UNDERSTAND what you're saying. But now, and like others, I do need money to purchase things. Be it rice, gas, DVD's, solar cells, bic lighters, grecian formula for men, whatever. So, I'll try to make 21%, 55%, 144%, 233% on my trades, to buy this crap. If I could, I might store natty but couldn't possibly do it now in my situation.
ReplyDeleteI've been positioning some trades after this date
"B22, more than 50% of the govt. peeps I talked to today say they think most of their money is in the TSP "C" or "S" fund. Who knows what they're thinking."
ReplyDeleteBeats me Q's....I have no idea what the C or S funds are....
@Amen
ReplyDeleteThe highest the gold:oil was over SMA(13) was 95.46% during 2/09. This month the SMA(13) currently is 15.43. So that would mean the ratio would be 30.159. Using todays prices then gold=2599.71 or oil=61.57. Which one has the greatest possibility?
---
I'm going to have to think about that one (technically) a little more, but my FIRST IMPRESSION is that... 2/09???... That print is an 'abberation'...
Which means it would NOT correlate to the prices you nominated there...
---
2/09 was this...
2008 was a MAJOR dELEVERAGING EVENT... At the time... There was basically 'no such thing' as:
- QE's
- FASB changes
- & all the other 'policy' bs since
2/09 they're 'pricing in' deflation (across the board)...
In a POST armageddon world... They're 'pricing in' CENTRAL PLANNING... Thus - in a 'pricing in of central planning' world... It's not abberant RATIOS that count, it's SUBTERFUGE & ARBITRAGE...
IOW - JBTF...
Trust me... The Saudi's don't want to see a "6" handle on oil...
If it takes some wars & calamity to make that happen, SO BE IT...
Rock the Casbah bitchez!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4HPdWYwgyw&feature=fvst
B22, it's where the govt emps can invest into their 401K (thrift savings plan)... link
ReplyDelete@Q's
ReplyDelete& BELIEVE ME...
CV also knows from where all of you peeps come (in varying ways)...
Let me put it this way...
If I was raising 2 teenage daughters at the moment, my rhetoric would be COMPLETELY different...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmY30_DjMYo&feature=related
Aaah the freedom of having "nothing to lose"...
---
"Once upon a time you dressed so fine
You threw the bums a dime in your prime, didn't you ?
People'd call, say, "Beware doll, you're bound to fall"
You thought they were all kiddin' you
You used to laugh about
Everybody that was hangin' out
Now you don't talk so loud
Now you don't seem so proud
About having to be scrounging for your next meal.
How does it feel
How does it feel
To be without a home
Like a complete unknown
Like a rolling stone ?
You've gone to the finest school all right, Miss Lonely
But you know you only used to get juiced in it
And nobody has ever taught you how to live on the street
And now you find out you're gonna have to get used to it
You said you'd never compromise
With the mystery tramp, but know you realize
He's not selling any alibis
As you stare into the vacuum of his eyes
And say do you want to make a deal?
How does it feel
How does it feel
To be on your own
With no direction home
Like a complete unknown
Like a rolling stone ?
You never turned around to see the frowns on the jugglers and the clowns
When they all come down and did tricks for you
You never understood that it ain't no good
You shouldn't let other people get your kicks for you
You used to ride on the chrome horse with your diplomat
Who carried on his shoulder a Siamese cat
Ain't it hard when you discover that
He really wasn't where it's at
After he took from you everything he could steal.
How does it feel
How does it feel
To be on your own
With no direction home
Like a complete unknown
Like a rolling stone ?
Princess on the steeple and all the pretty people
They're drinkin', thinkin' that they got it made
Exchanging all precious gifts
But you'd better take your diamond ring, you'd better pawn it babe
You used to be so amused
At Napoleon in rags and the language that he used
Go to him now, he calls you, you can't refuse
When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose
You're invisible now, you got no secrets to conceal.
How does it feel
How does it feel
To be on your own
With no direction home
Like a complete unknown
Like a rolling stone ?
For the record, QE started in 05 if I'm not mistaken, first POMO's got implemented then. Book cooking and policy "bs" have been a constant so long as markets and people existed if I'm not mistaken. I don't really subscribe to the idea that the world is different this time since those things exist.
ReplyDeleteI'd also simply point out that if the markets were "pricing in" deflation across the board in 02/2009 then the markets were wrong weren't they?
Hell, if you use every Joe Blows def. of inflation (a rise in the price of goods, and only certain goods 'really count') then the market was just flat out stupid wrong wasnt it?
and so I'm not really sure why anyone would give so much weight to what the markets are supposedly "pricing in" right now given its track record.
it would appear even to the casual observer that markets never price in big turns, never once in fact, rather they simply measure the current emotional state of the net of market participants, which is why things seem "best" at tops and "worst" at bottoms....
Q's
ReplyDeleteI see. I mostly work with folks in the private sector, I have four teachers as clients and a couple nurses but they have 403b's, typically from robbery shop TIAA-CREF.
cv--
ReplyDeletere: 100 lb Propane Tanks..
have you seen a Price Quote for one of those?
AAIP
Ha...
ReplyDeleteCV just felt an EARTHQUAKE here...
Gotta check confirmation of that (but I kno what an effin earthquake feels like)...
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteYou can get 'em at COSTCO for anywhere between $75 & $100...
I have about 20 of them...
---
& to be sure... I've only used 60% of the capacity of ONE to 'cook' with since January...
(Roughly - $6-7 bucks a month energy cost there)...
Plan A: Cost savings
Plan TEOTWAWKI: "I can trade these things for lotsa gold (or other things) - if & when needed
yo, me too CV
ReplyDeletethat was wild
5.8 in VA apparently
I thought people were on the roof doing work here
sounds like it went from VA to NY
ReplyDeletehere I was just wondering if that hurricane would get to us
but we've got quakes to deal with I guess
EQ in DC = markets rally? JBTFD!
ReplyDeletecv, you shake alot?
yes, it, totally, did..
ReplyDeletewas sitting here, filing cabinets started to shake...
was interesting..to say the least..
AAIP
I had some CDS on an earthquake happening here by 2015 but I can't get the quotes to pull up now
ReplyDeletenot really, but you could imagine
you probably did imagine
EQ map
ReplyDeleteI'd also simply point out that if the markets were "pricing in" deflation across the board in 02/2009 then the markets were wrong weren't they?
ReplyDeleteYup... Which is WHY I mae the "other way" comment above
Hell, if you use every Joe Blows def. of inflation (a rise in the price of goods, and only certain goods 'really count') then the market was just flat out stupid wrong wasnt it?
Yup - which is why I could give a rats ass about JOE BLOWS definition of inflation... IT'S NOT MINE... All I know is what my $$ buys me & what it doesn't... Pretty much the same "profit/loss" scenario that any reasonable person goes off of... & what I KNOW... Is that since I've EXITEd the PAPER game, my REAL buying power has been substantially improved...
No more - no less...
and so I'm not really sure why anyone would give so much weight to what the markets are supposedly "pricing in" right now given its track record.
Actually - I would give it weight...
Since it's obvious that nobody ever reads what I publish (as in ABOVE), I'll say it again (which is surely destined for the same trash bin)...
"You're not gambling against the markets... You're gambling against the BOOKIES"...
THE MARKET is the pointspread (as in NFL lines)...
The linesmakers are always WRONG (that's the 'market')... The BOOKIES are always right (in the long term)... because they collect their 10% juice...
Otherwise, they'd have stopped doing business YEARS ago...
@Q's
ReplyDeleteI shook pretty good...
Look - I lived in Los Angeles for 13 years (so I kno what EQ's feel like)...
This wasn't the strongest (like the worst I ever felt there)...
But it was unmistakeable...
It's funny... When I moved to Italy in the 90's we had a pretty good rattler there... Most were UNFAMILIAR...
But there's NO mistaking an earthquake...
"You're not gambling against the markets... You're gambling against the BOOKIES"...
ReplyDeleteSome people gamble in markets, not all people. main problem in markets is YOU, not "they"
I wonder if the Earth moved for Karen, too....?
ReplyDeleteThat was a good one...
@ben
ReplyDeleteyo, me too CV
that was wild
5.8 in VA apparently
---
Ha!
Thanks for the confirmation brother... :-)
& by the way... It only CONFIRMS yet another CV prediction... which was...
--- (12:02 - above) ---
"I'm back! I'm black! The mountainz about to crack!"
See... Y'all THOUGHT it was the TOTUS chiming in from Martha's Vineyard...
But ALAS it was only CV (just 'funnin' & 'prognosticating' again @ y'alls expense)... :-)
@ben
ReplyDeleteSome people gamble in markets, not all people. main problem in markets is YOU, not "they"
Now THAT... I believe in!
we all thought someone was on the roof here CV
ReplyDeletethen I noticed a bunch of people had moved out to the parking lot
I've only felt one other EQ in my life so it took me a little bit to figure out what was going on
literally I had said to myself
"must be the wind" but then....there is really just a slight breeze today
so that was an interesting behaivor thing I did there
Doesn't appear that the earthquake damaged any of the HFT servers...
ReplyDelete@ben
ReplyDeleteWhich... come to think of it... Is a VERY important point...
---
In NFL picks (upcoming)...
If CV says... "Avoid betting on this game at all costs"... do yourself a favor & avoid plopping down any benjamins on it...
90 minutes left. Will BAC close under $6? Survey says...
ReplyDeleteAmenRa, for old times sake, perhaps you could use the golden cliff dive photo for your daily summary today (and probably a few days next week!)
ReplyDeleteSteve
@ben
ReplyDeleteI've only felt one other EQ in my life so it took me a little bit to figure out what was going on
literally I had said to myself
"must be the wind" but then....there is really just a slight breeze today
---
See? that's what I mean... Until you've actually BEEN in an earthquake, you have ZERO as to understanding WTF is going on...
Even after I moved to Los Angeles... My first coupla earthquakes were like...
WTFF?
Then it becomes funk in habit form leatherware (only AMEN can truly appeciate that)...
& you ALWAYS kno what an earthquake is...
Let's just hope it didn't mess up any nuclear facilities...
NOVA (location)...
I sure hope they're not testing HAARP 'sound waves' under the Pentagon...
Maybe it was just AHAB dropping a deuce :-)
@Steve
ReplyDeleteYou gotta hang here for awhile my brother...
I like your calls...
CV
@Steve,
ReplyDeletedid your short on Gold get filled
if so, excellent trading man, you rode that to the top like a champ and then got a draft down
awesome!
@cv (and his special powers), "mountainz about to crack" and in Mineral, VA, what do ya make of that?
ReplyDeletenot only did you predict the EQ, you took gold down more!
Now go and buy more natural gas, after the earthquake EIA will procede to stop gas producers to keep pumping natural gas from Virginia and Pennsylvania shale. The earthquake would be a great excuse to smash all natty short sellers.
ReplyDeleteCacerolo
I have a client whose parents live outside of Pittsburgh
ReplyDeletethey got their first royalty check from the natty last month
it was over $25k, to be paid out monthly moving forward
@Q's
ReplyDeleteNow I'm LMFAO...
F*** dude... 'Mineral, VA'... Not even CV is THAT good...
So now I'm 'officially' in full hedge mode (locking in my gains)...
It was AHAB dropping a deuce... (& let the records reflect the immutable fact that AHAB dropping a deuce HAS NOTHING TO do WITH ANYTHING with regards to capital markets)... ror...
@ben @cacerolo
ReplyDeletedon't JOKE about that shizz...
Halliburton is heavy... I MEAN 'HEAVY' into western PA & NE West Va properties (regular folks) on shale fracking at the moment...
But don't believe ME on any of this...
ReplyDeleteI just know how to count to 8 & otherwise spend my time playing FARMVILLE on a 386 PC...
CV,
ReplyDeletewho said I was kidding, my client is freaking out about it, that's real money
I realize it's paper, but $25k per month still buys you stuff, lots of it in fact
this is even getting big in my tiny home-town in western pa
Ben,
ReplyDelete1914 on gold was the exact 161.8% fifth wave extension of the first & third waves from late January. Gold third waves seem to end often with 161.8% extensions. Today was my best trading day ever. Last week was my best week ever.
Hopefully we get some sort of bounce off the 10DMA area to short into again.
I going to go back into quiet mode -- I trade better that way.
Steve
@ben
ReplyDeleteOh on't get me wrong... I kno it's serious $$...
I was looking in to exactly that a few months ago (as I caught a tip, in casual conversation, at the county lan registrars office about friens & relatives having 'Halliburton' interests on their property)...
You know... My reason for being at the lan registry office was with regars to the 'non-existent' farm...
I wante 2 be on that like white on rice...
It's still ongoing (but as I've foun out - people who KNOW - alreay 'know' - it's getting price in as we speak)...
OOOOOOH though... CV 'just' misse that one...
Thanks STEVE...
ReplyDeleteThat's a 'gem' right there...
Short gold today, but it's only a tiddler. This time....
ReplyDeleteSteve,
ReplyDeletecongrats, that's great man
This move in gold tells me one thing. It's going higher. Just needed to shake out the weak longs (paper) beforehand.
ReplyDeleteSteve
ReplyDeleteWhat Ben said.
Another thought. Could it be the warehouse needs to reduce longs (written using Hugo's stash) before sending him back his countries gold?
ReplyDeleteVIX SMAASSHHH!!!
ReplyDeleteNeed to get puts cheaper before Friday.
I spy a messy inverted H&S on the sp futures that targets 1186
ReplyDelete@CV
ReplyDeleteThen it becomes funk in habit form leatherware (only AMEN can truly appeciate that)...
C'mon man...I've played a couple of "knock yer dick in the dirt" sets at the Baked Potato...among other places...wearing leathers from Nudies (Hollywood...Vine and something)....big mistake...chafed thighs and all:-)
"...literally I had said to myself
ReplyDelete"must be the wind" but then....there is really just a slight breeze today..."
CrackieB,
here, too..was the first thing I thought, as well..
went outside, looked around, barely a Branch/Treetop wavering...barely a ripple in the Breeze..
~~~
who has Wagers that the FedRes were Celebrating the 1913 of Au? :)
AAIP
Andy T
ReplyDelete1186 is also the daily 3LB mid.
http://federalnewsradio.com/
ReplyDelete4 a 'First Window' on the 'Optics' of/onto the 'Mushroom Economy'--
ibid.