Thursday, June 23, 2011

Morning Corner 6.23.11

Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 43.259
rev= 32.629; mid= 37.944


Ever since gold made that move during the week ending 5/6/11 the ratio has been trading in a triangle. The apex appears to be in three weeks. So gold is either about to take off or plummet. I would hazard a guess that CB's would prefer the latter. It's interesting that the EU emergency summit is around that time. It's above the weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Plus it's only above the SMA(21) and well below the other SMA's.



CYB (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 25.14
rev= 25.81; mid= 25.48

China's yuan is increasing. Might be due to all of the rate rises. Problem is overnight funding has dried up and SHIBOR is going through the roof. It's back above the SMA(21) and the 23.6% retrace. It's also confirming the bullish harami made last week.
at

40 comments:

  1. BinTJune 23, 2011 at 7:14 AM

    futures -48 as I get up. I think I would like to see the economic wizard of the apocolypse let rates rise..I wonder of the older folks might start to spend if they were getting any return on their cash.

    But there is the little problem of interest in the national debt.....

    ReplyDelete
  2. BinTJune 23, 2011 at 7:20 AM

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-23/china-money-rate-jumps-to-three-year-as-higher-reserve-ratio-squeezes-cash.html

    "The one-year interest rate swap, the fixed cost needed to receive the floating seven-day repurchase rate, rose three basis points to 3.96 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 3.9750 percent, the highest level since Feb. 22. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

    The yield on the 3.94 percent government bond due January 2021 climbed five basis points to 3.95 percent, according to the Interbank Funding Center.

    China should raise interest rates to counter inflation, the China Securities Journal said in a front-page editorial today. An increase would push inflation-adjusted interest rates toward positive territory and drive funds back to banks, it said. Consumer prices rose 5.5 percent in May from a year earlier after having climbed 5.3 percent the previous month."

    ReplyDelete
  3. BinTJune 23, 2011 at 8:02 AM

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31510813/#43500720

    ..the part I think is of interest is about what would have occured if Paulson didn't get his massive bailout..

    ReplyDelete
  4. BinTJune 23, 2011 at 8:26 AM

    http://www.rttnews.com/Cust/ArticleView.aspx?Id=1652289

    ...China manufacturing goes in for halftime...it appears the Chinese think more of tall Paul than the Bernank..

    ReplyDelete
  5. BinTJune 23, 2011 at 8:52 AM

    429...last week revised up 6k

    we may have found our Steve Barry moment.

    ReplyDelete
  6. cvJune 23, 2011 at 8:58 AM

    Young Rory McIlroy

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6D7ReWQMGho

    Classic!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Andy TJune 23, 2011 at 9:04 AM

    everything getting murdered.

    ReplyDelete
  8. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 9:19 AM

    My name is Cane. Credit Cane.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 9:20 AM

    Looks like the small bounce in EURCHF has ended.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 9:26 AM

    BinT

    The 1W & 2W SHIBOR are over 9% now.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 9:45 AM

    Call the cops. The market is about to get murdered.

    ReplyDelete
  12. BinTJune 23, 2011 at 9:46 AM

    yes Amen

    I think the Chinese leaders have some Volcker in them...and, again, they will maintain their manufacturing dominance and so aren't scared of slowing the economy..

    ..our leaders, otoh, seem completely lost...

    ReplyDelete
  13. BuckyJune 23, 2011 at 9:47 AM

    I did it. I confess.

    ReplyDelete
  14. ben22June 23, 2011 at 10:06 AM

    "Call the cops. The market is about to get murdered."
    ha!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkyhvCdJ_vM

    ReplyDelete
  15. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 10:28 AM

    SMA(200)= 1262.60
    EMA(200)= 1263.75
    daily 3LB reversal= 1265.33

    ReplyDelete
  16. BinTJune 23, 2011 at 10:33 AM

    US Plans to Release 30 Million Barrels of Oil From Reserves....


    Gnat and elephant...

    Meanwhile we still seem to be opposed to new drilling...

    ...I think I will go spelunking later today and check the score this afternoon....

    ReplyDelete
  17. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 10:44 AM

    The market REALLY, REALLY, REALLY doesn't want another test of the 200 (SMA or EMA). Last time it only tested the EMA. Considering that the trend is turning down, I can't imagine how many sell orders are sitting just underneath the 200s.

    ReplyDelete
  18. AnonymousJune 23, 2011 at 10:44 AM

    BinT,

    good choice on the Spelunking..

    cv--

    that McIlroy clip was great (too bad I started reading the Comments--Where do those 'people', even, come from?)

    AAIP

    ReplyDelete
  19. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 10:47 AM

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/debt-ceiling-talks-collapse
    Debt Ceiling Talks Collapse

    5 weeks ahead of the day when the debt ceiling "extend and pretend" plan ends, talks have broken down, and in order to hike Congressional Nielsen ratings, this time seemingly terminally. From Reuters: "U.S. Deficit-reduction talks led by Vice President Joe Biden have reached an "impasse," House of Representatives Majority Leader Eric Cantor said on Thursday, adding that he will not participate in the meeting of the bipartisan group that had been scheduled for later in the day. Cantor, a Republican, said the group has identified trillions of dollars in spending cuts, but had been unable to resolve a disagreement over tax increases Democrats sought. A Senate Democratic aide said the two sides "need to continue talking", and were continuing to talk. But an aide to Senator Jon Kyl, a Republican member of the Biden group, declined to comment on whether the senator would attend Thursday's scheduled meeting."

    On your mark, get set, SELL!

    ReplyDelete
  20. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 10:49 AM

    Another version: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/key-republican-quits-budget-talks-over-impasse-2011-06-23
    Key Republican quits budget talks over impasse

    By Robert Schroeder

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said Thursday he's quitting budget talks led by Vice President Joe Biden for now, citing an impasse over taxes. "The tax issue must be resolved before discussions can continue," Cantor said. Biden was set to convene the latest round of talks on Thursday. They are aimed at striking a deal to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for a long-term deficit-reduction plan.

    ReplyDelete
  21. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 11:02 AM

    SMOKE



    AND



    MIRRORS

    ReplyDelete
  22. Andy TJune 23, 2011 at 11:05 AM

    My bias is to buy the oil here.

    Looks like a 5wave move down complete (please see Sunday's) Silver and Gold.

    Sideways/higher on CL seems like a decent bet now.

    ReplyDelete
  23. ben22June 23, 2011 at 11:23 AM

    AT,

    what do you think is smarter

    Brent or WTI?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Andy TJune 23, 2011 at 11:49 AM

    I more partial to WTI because I think the pervasive sentiment is that WTI is shit and that Brent is the new liquid gold.

    ReplyDelete
  25. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 12:49 PM

    I don't like how the SPX is trading. It appears to be waiting for something. Tight range since the open. Tested the EMA(200) again. So far it passed. Didn't test the SMA(200) which appears to be THE line in the sand.

    ReplyDelete
  26. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 12:52 PM

    Also, I don't think short sellers are going to cover today. They're in their foxholes and don't plan to give in.

    ReplyDelete
  27. QQQQJune 23, 2011 at 1:15 PM

    seems every economic indicator this month is, well... bad (where's PrezO?)

    B22, fyi... those SPXU calls I bot, looked at it a while ago and the bid/ask was 1.20/1.35, this morning it was 1.35/1.50, but no volume... LOL

    10 Tax-Unfriendly States for Retirees 2011

    ReplyDelete
  28. ben22June 23, 2011 at 1:21 PM

    Q's

    yeah there's a lot less volume there than I'd personally prefer, good luck on those

    I went long some Q's August 55 calls today and there are some individual stocks I may sell puts on before the week is out

    ReplyDelete
  29. QQQQJune 23, 2011 at 1:35 PM

    AR, agree...

    this week trying real hard to stay positive

    Major 18's
    Weekly...1244
    downtrend started 5 weeks ago
    Monthly... 1244
    downtrend started this month, unless something drastic happens to move the SPX up about 40 points from these levels

    ReplyDelete
  30. QQQQJune 23, 2011 at 1:43 PM

    watching the police chase a motorcycle in Forth Worth, TX, he's teasing them! Been going on for 20 minutes now...

    ReplyDelete
  31. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 1:44 PM

    Odd. Nothing indicates this market should be moving higher. The games people play.

    ReplyDelete
  32. QQQQJune 23, 2011 at 1:47 PM

    AR, it's cycles man!
    Trending cycles!

    ReplyDelete
  33. cvJune 23, 2011 at 2:12 PM

    seems every economic indicator this month is, well... bad (where's PrezO?)


    ---

    My guess is that he's on a fishing trip in the Indian Ocean... To see if he can find Bin Laden's body so we can kill him again...

    ReplyDelete
  34. QQQQJune 23, 2011 at 2:46 PM

    cv, I was thinking the senators and representatives shouldn't vote on bills anymore, they should play a game, like croquet on the white house lawn, or maybe even water polo, something... winner takes all. This would get a different group type of people into our govt. It possibly couldn't make it worse than what we have now, would it? Would possibly be a hit reality show too! (the profits from the show could help reduce our deficit)

    ReplyDelete
  35. QQQQJune 23, 2011 at 2:48 PM

    speaking of croquet, AR, is that a bullish croquet stick on the SPX weekly candles?

    ReplyDelete
  36. QQQQJune 23, 2011 at 3:02 PM

    WHOA!, spx jumped (10pts in 4 mins) up to minor's 1278 in a flash!

    ReplyDelete
  37. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 3:19 PM

    QQQQ

    TICK went nuts at 14:57. Started tagging 1100-1200-1300 in three minutes. There's no way that was accidental. Someone must be scared shitless for them to force the market higher at all costs.

    ReplyDelete
  38. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 3:28 PM

    I also remember back in 2008 or 2009 when the market was "forced" higher only to plummet even lower in the final five minutes.

    ReplyDelete
  39. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 3:42 PM

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euimf-approve-greeces-austerity-plan-report-2011-06-23-1530430
    E.U./IMF approve Greece's austerity plan: report

    By Sue Chang

    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Greece has secured the approval of E.U. and IMF inspectors for its latest five-year austerity plan after agreeing to additional tax hikes and spending cuts, Reuters reported on its website Thursday, citing sources familiar with the talks. "We have a deal," one of the sources told the news agency. However, a few technical details are expected to be finalized on Friday, according to Reuters.



    So that was the reason for the forced attempt? Give me a break. Any more concessions and the Greek Parliament will not be able to get to work. The citizens will stalk them 24/7

    ReplyDelete
  40. AmenRaJune 23, 2011 at 4:08 PM

    Odd that commodities stayed lower during the head fake. Or maybe that was the correct reaction.

    ReplyDelete