Friday, June 17, 2011

Morning Corner 6.17.11

TBT (weekly info)
new low 32.53
trend=down
low= 32.53
rev= 34.16; mid= 33.35


This week TBT is making its ninth new low. Unfortunately that means there might be one to four more new lows coming. One to four because the last few down moves either made ten or thirteen new lows. It's below all of the SMA's. This weeks candle looks like an inverted hammer but I'd prefer it to have a higher close (better reversal signal).



AA (weekly info)
new low 15.29
trend=down
low= 15.29
rev= 16.49; mid= 15.89


Alcoa earnings scheduled for 7/11/11. If this down move continues I wouldn't be surprised if they announce early. Below its SMA(21) and testing its monthly 3LB mid. MACD is still moving lower but Williams %R is oversold. Unfortunately there are not too many supports on the way down.



XOM (weekly info)
new low 79.89
trend=down
low= 79.89
rev= 86.36; mid= 83.13


You'd think with oil still pretty high that XOM would be doing much better. But its below its SMA(21) and trending down on the weekly 3LB. The next area of support is $70 (from April 2010). The lower trend line is lined up with SMA(55) so that would be an area of concern if prices get there.


The perfect music to go along with trading today knowing Greece has the confidence vote on Sunday...

at

38 comments:

  1. mcHAPPYJune 17, 2011 at 7:17 AM

    Ahhhhh, the elusive bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 7:25 AM

    mcHAPPY

    This is a short squeeze from hell type of move.

    ReplyDelete
  3. mcHAPPYJune 17, 2011 at 7:28 AM

    Ra

    No doubt. This was the bounce Ben was playing. I took a stab at it yesterday but my stops got hit before 'this' happened.

    ReplyDelete
  4. mcHAPPYJune 17, 2011 at 7:29 AM

    Actually, Ben still IS playing it. Not me though. Looking for a good place to get back in on the short or volatile side.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 7:37 AM

    mcHAPPY

    Look at the ES chart. It went straight vertical at 5AM ET.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 8:06 AM

    Even though this type of move is usually done around 3AM ET. Someone must have fallen asleep at the wheel.

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  7. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 8:12 AM

    What's the half life of the Sarkozy-Merkel news?

    ReplyDelete
  8. mcHAPPYJune 17, 2011 at 8:21 AM

    "mcHAPPY

    Look at the ES chart. It went straight vertical at 5AM ET."

    Not trying to be all Karl Denninger, but at what point do the handcuffs get brought out?

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  9. mcHAPPYJune 17, 2011 at 8:27 AM

    A little 'hope' today and 'good news' on Monday should have this market ready for the next leg lower - I think, lol.

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  10. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 9:34 AM

    FTR, when I see moves like this not accompanied by a higher TICK reading I figure it's not not going to last for long.

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  11. cvJune 17, 2011 at 9:36 AM

    Quad witching bitchez...

    MAX PAIN

    ReplyDelete
  12. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 9:38 AM

    Also the market couldn't even muster five bullish 1-min candles in the first five minutes.

    ReplyDelete
  13. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 9:38 AM

    CV

    I was thinking about that also. What is max pain for todays opex?

    ReplyDelete
  14. ben22June 17, 2011 at 9:47 AM

    think it's 129 now for SPY, max pain

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  15. ben22June 17, 2011 at 9:48 AM

    Ra,

    I think XOM is also in a triangle, perhaps it works down to the 200 day. I'd be constructive there if the overall market plays out as I suspsect it will.

    ReplyDelete
  16. AnonymousJune 17, 2011 at 10:13 AM

    quotage:

    If you want irresponsible politicians to spend less,
    you must give them less to spend."
    -- Irwin Schiff
    (libertarian)
    http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Irwin.Schiff.Quote.E22A


    "What I do know is, in little more than 30 years, we have gone from a nation where the “quiet enjoyment” of one’s private property was a sacred right, to a day when the so-called property “owner” faces a hovering hoard of taxmen and regulators threatening to lien, foreclose, and “go to auction” at the first sign of private defiance of their collective will ... a relationship between government and private property rights which my dictionary defines as “fascism.”"
    -- Vin Suprynowicz
    (1950-) American columnist, author
    Source: Live Free or Die: How Many More Carl Dregas?, September 21, 1997.
    http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Vin.Suprynowicz.Quote.31C1


    "Conservatives and liberals are kindred spirits as far as government spending is concerned. ... Since government has no resources of its own, and since there’s no Tooth Fairy handing Congress the funds for the programs it enacts, we are forced to recognize that government spending is no less than the confiscation of one person’s property to give it to another to whom it does not belong -- in effect, legalized theft."
    -- Walter E. Williams
    (1936- ) Columnist, Professor of Economics at George Mason University
    http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Walter.Williams.Quote.7F37

    AAIP

    ReplyDelete
  17. mcHAPPYJune 17, 2011 at 10:35 AM

    Ben,

    The 129 max pain on SPY would be for today?

    I think there will be more pain early next week.

    ReplyDelete
  18. ben22June 17, 2011 at 10:40 AM

    McHappy,

    you can test here, though you may want to look other places to cross check the data:

    http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

    I'm looking for up today and Monday, we'll see.

    ReplyDelete
  19. mcHAPPYJune 17, 2011 at 10:48 AM

    Thanks, Ben.

    I, like many, were too early with the bounce. Waiting until the afternoon to pick up XIV versus the pre-market would have been a nice quick trade.

    If I had set my stop to break-even on UPRO yesterday I'd be sitting pretty today as well as it would not have been hit and of course up today.

    ReplyDelete
  20. LeftbackJune 17, 2011 at 11:27 AM

    TBT is a day rental for the time being until the trend changes.
    I am long it today but won't take it home.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Andy TJune 17, 2011 at 11:58 AM

    Always good to just "rent" the TBT ...

    ReplyDelete
  22. Andy TJune 17, 2011 at 11:59 AM

    If Golf Tourneys only laste two rounds, Rory McIlroy would be unstoppable.

    ReplyDelete
  23. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 1:20 PM

    Sarozy-Merkel half life of eight hours. Ramp started around 5:15AM ET.

    ReplyDelete
  24. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 1:23 PM

    But then again ES broke below its SMA(13) at 9:45AM ET on its 15-min chart.

    ReplyDelete
  25. QQQQJune 17, 2011 at 1:23 PM

    Yesterday's Minor 18's, SPX bounced off 1260ish today resistance 1278ish

    Major 18's
    1375
    .1351 (fib)
    ..1337 (fib)
    ...1274 (fib)
    1244
    ...1212 (fib)
    ..1150 (fib)
    .1128 (fib)
    1112
    .1093 (fib)
    ..1081 (fib)
    ...1031 (fib)
    1006


    LNKD puts = easy $$$!

    TBT calls = not so easy $$$!

    on the road last few days, zipping through the OC yesterday(waved @ Karen's beach)... and called in a short P @ $15.70, another POS IPO!

    ReplyDelete
  26. QQQQJune 17, 2011 at 1:36 PM

    @AR, one of my 18 indicators still shows SPX in a downtrend since 5/6

    ReplyDelete
  27. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 1:40 PM

    QQQQ

    The daily 3LB is trending down, weekly 3LB has reversed down (awaiting confirmation) and the monthly 3LB is showing weakness (below mid) but hasn't reversed.

    ReplyDelete
  28. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 2:05 PM

    Update. Forgot because of the 14th the daily 3LB reversed up. But it reversed back down on the 15th. So it's not trending down...yet.

    ReplyDelete
  29. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 2:07 PM

    Market is doing all it can to avoid a 7th (in a row) lower weekly close.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Andy TJune 17, 2011 at 2:14 PM

    "Funny" how previous support becomes resistance when broken. That 1295 level will be a good level of resistance for next week. In order to prove a turn, we will need to see a rally larger than anythign we've seen since the decline started. About a 33pt move on the S&P 500....

    So, a we would also need to break above 1295 in those terms as well...in order to prove the end of a wave down.

    ReplyDelete
  31. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 2:41 PM

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/17/greece-finmin-aid-idUSATH00618320110617
    Greece to pass austerity plan, with changes-finmin



    ATHENS, June 17 | Fri Jun 17, 2011 2:05pm EDT

    ATHENS, June 17 (Reuters) - Greece will seek approval from euro zone finance ministers on Sunday to agree to some changes in a mid-term austerity plan that parliament is expected to pass, the country's new finance minister said on Friday.

    "The midterm plan is the passport for reliability not only for the fifth tranche but for the problem of the viability of the public debt," Evangelos Venizelos told Mega TV channel after he was appointed in a cabinet reshuffle.

    "The mid-term plan will have to be voted with improvements that have already been made in committee. And those that have already passed (in committee) must be agreed officially with our partners." (Reporting by Harry Papachristou and Angeliki Koutantou)

    They couldn't wait until Sunday to scare the markets. Greece is sitting back with some popcorn watching the fireworks.

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  32. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 3:34 PM

    Umm umm did anyone notice that the SPX high of 1279.81 and low of 1266.81 difference is 13?

    :-)

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  33. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 3:49 PM

    See what happens when you take out the open? TICK has gone buck wild. The question is did the bulls see the whites of the bears eyes? Or was it their own reflection?

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  34. AmenRaJune 17, 2011 at 4:08 PM

    Great. Now the financial MSM wil spend the weekend spewing how the six week decline has ended. All guests will get the question "Is this the bottom?". We only closed the week 0.04% higher. That's not exactly a win in my book.

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  35. ben22June 17, 2011 at 4:13 PM

    Happy Fathers day to all you Dad's

    have a good weekend folks

    ReplyDelete
  36. AnonymousJune 17, 2011 at 6:05 PM

    <>

    Unless you are short. (Have been since 11/17/09.)

    ReplyDelete
  37. spoonmanJune 17, 2011 at 6:10 PM

    Steve Barry? Is that you? Hope you're ok man.

    ReplyDelete
  38. AnonymousJune 17, 2011 at 8:27 PM

    No, not Steve Barry. Apologies for my cryptic post. I was resopnding to Andy's comment about "renting" TBT but my attempt to cut/paste failed. I put on the TBT short about 18 months ago to capture the time decay as I waited for lower rates.

    ReplyDelete