AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.


What??? Don't take it so personal bulls.

Creditcane™: I am a professional matador.


SPX
Bearish long day (didn't confirm morning star/bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing SMA(144). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Failed the 85.4% retrace (1266.79). Failing monthly 3LB mid. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1288.00). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and held SMA(89). Easily held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Held its weekly 3LB mid. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 73.52).



VIX
Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (20.77). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 18.26). Finally escaped the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish short day (confirmed bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Held SMA(21). Held its 23.6% retrace (1515.29). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55) & SMA(21). Failed its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4650).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (39.40). Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (39.62). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.96).



10YR YIELD
Bearish LONG day. Failed SMA(21). Midpoint at EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (29.19). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.62).



WTI
Bearish engulfing day (actually engulfed the bullish engulfing). Failing SMA(144) and held SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (98.93). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 97.70).



SILVER
Bullish short day (confirmed bullish harami - barely). Failing SMA(89) & SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Held its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.30). "You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bearish short day (confirmed shooting star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (47.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.69).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Made a new 0.0% retrace (0.8053). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.8113).



LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Return of The Bond Report™ 6.15.11

It was, obviously, RISK OFF. As always, the credit markets led the way, with Treasuries rallying early. Yet the long bond struggled to make headway at times during the day and the 1-month chart reveals a series of lower highs. That's bearish for the 30y, folks.

Spreads were wider on the day, but JNK stayed above its recent lows, and there was no sense of panic selling in credit. Looking at the charts, LQD, AGG and TIP have had a great run and are quite vulnerable to any decent economic data, should we ever see any again.

IQI and MUB have staged a massive recovery on the back of lower yields in USTs and are also bumping into resistance, the same for higher quality MBS. Might be time for a jump back into the lower quality end of the pool?

Corpies: LQD 0.55%; AGG 0.25%; JNK -0.53%; HYG -0.42%
Govies: TLT 1.82%; IEI 0.62%; TIP 0.52%
Munis: IQI -0.16%; MUB -0.06%
Mortgages: MBB 0.15%
Specialty: ZROZ 2.83%; TBT -3.43%; EMB -0.09%

We have very little F/I here, just 5% in JNK. We started a hedge today.
Long 5% JNK and short 6% TLT.


WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

22 comments:

Andy T said...

I'm so yearning for sports, I'll probably have to watch this Game 7 of the Hockey Finals....

Andy T said...

LB,

Thanks for the Bond Report....

My boss continues to be confounded and losing money on the TBT. I just keep telling him...remember what JGBs have done....

ben22 said...

thanks for the wrap guys, nice stuff as always, good to see the bond wrap back, that's helpful.

I have very little doubt someday shorting the long bond is going to be this monster trade. could I tell you when.....

hahaha, no.

AmenRa said...

The 30yr bond weekly chart isn't looking that strong as the last few weeks have lower lows.

Anonymous said...

Andy T,

I've been moving in and out of TBT every week or so, making 3-4% gains at a time so far by trading off recent support and resistance lines. I'm not sure when TBT will take off, but it would seem like it will have to eventually. I just have no clue when.

RG

ben22 said...

mentioned the bitcoin here the other day, EWT mentions again that since they brought it up the value of bitcoin has risen 52,000%

wow, didn't realize that, as they mention in the paper, clearly there is a major thirst for something other than fiat.

Shumer of NY has drafted a bill to outlaw it

the clock is ticking......

cv said...

@McBen

The McLOVIN link from the last thread...

ROTFLMFAO!!! Thanks for the laugh... Effin classic!

cv said...

@Amen

The 30yr bond weekly chart isn't looking that strong as the last few weeks have lower lows

---

I'm going to go ahead and say it (and be a dickhead lemming in the process)... But I think "Operation Titty Twister" [aka Purple Nurple], will, in fact, end up to be a YC steepener...

If for NO OTHER REASON than everyone (except for doomsdayers) want it to...

So YEAH... Go short on ANY duration of 5y+

cv said...

@ben (9:25)

I still can't get my mind wrapped around BITCOIN...

I'll synthesize here (but this is really just barroom talk and nothing more)...

- Let's put it this way... Gold & Silver have been around for thousands of millennia... If you can't convince people to buy PHYSICAL gold or SILVER right now, do you think they'll just run on over to BITCOIN???... I trust 'linen' more than I do BITCOIN at the moment...

- Getting a consensus of vendors to climb on board???... IMO - The present 'socioeconomics' of the world (a subject you are keen to), is of 'break-up'... NOT convergence...

I'll admit there's a battleground for MIDDLE EARTH as we speak... Which is to say that NWO-ists want unity (United Nations - single currencies, monetary unions, blogs that only permit 'happy talk', etc.)...

Then there are the 'F-U-ists'... It's all over the place (and perhaps most Americans are oblivious)... While I lived in Italy, there was ALWAYS talk of Italia splitting up into various regions... Around the rest of the world (former Soviet states, Shia/Sunni, and many other examples, it's the same)... I could have NEVER believed before that the USA would ever desire something like that, but I'm second guessing myself right now... I could EASILY picture this country being broken up into various factions if the conditions were right...

It's not an aspiration of mine, but given the hegemony of things these days, I could see it happening... & if it did, in LONGER timescales of civilizations, it wouldn't really be that unusual of a phenomenon...

Andy T said...

" I could EASILY picture this country being broken up into various factions if the conditions were right.."

There is no doubt in my mind that this country will be broken up into several distinct states/territories/republics over the next hundred years.

The situation has become FAR too unwieldy. The idea that there can be this big centralized government that is MANDATING certain laws and requirements on various states/counties that don't identify AT ALL with the "Political powers that be" is not sustainable.

I can't tell you how many "SECEDE" bumper stickers you see around Texas.

Paradoxically, the Libertarians are the ones with the agenda that can keep the United States together. Large "systems" like the U.S. Economy cannot be controlled by ever complex (and growing) laws/regulations that attempt to "control" the populace.

I say paradoxically because people who don't understand typically associate Libertarianism with "borderline anarchy."

The truth is, the sooner we understand that hundreds of millions of people cannot be "controlled" or "managed," the better off we'll all be.

cv said...

@Andy

I'm so yearning for sports

Well... The Women's World Cup starts very soon... CV is NOT a fan of WNBA, or women's basketball... But I like to watch them play soccer...

---

@ of course AMEN RA - YOU BETTER ADD THIS TO THE ARSENAL RIGHT QUICK - The U.S. Open starts tomorrow at WHERE ELSE???

Congressional Country Club - Bethesda, Maryland...

CV was born about 5 miles from there... Lived in Bethesda for 6 years... Caddied there... Was an 'honorary member' (well - not really - but a well heeled buddy of mine from college was a member and so I went in & out like a revolving door... Funny thing though... He was a TENNIS guy (top ranked in division II NCAA)... I was into golf... So I basically let him PUMMEL me with his serves & stood at the net while he practiced 'howitzer-ing' me with serve & volley... So then I got a nice swim... & Arnold
Palmer (see how it's DONE here)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLxKSvkpE1Y

Then - 9 holes on the BLUE COURSE...

In later years... I spent more times playing on the GOLD COURSE (The BLUE course is the US Open Course - FYI)...

Was LEADING a US MID-AM qualifier there... In... UMMMM... Jeez I think it was 1997 or 1998... The took a "9" on the 16th hole (into what amounted to a FLASH HURRICANE - the day before - 3 wood/9iron/BIRDIE... Q day??? 400mph wind into the face [which came out of nowhere - & after I'd holed out a bunker shot on the hole before to save a par]... This day??? I drill a 1 iron into the wind because any offline driver would have gone 3 miles sideways... Another 1 iron into a bunker in front of the green... Then??? Two straight BLADED sand wedges OVER the elevated green out of bounds... 3rd one on... Figure the rest... CV - does NOT advance to the... Ummm. I think it was the Honors Club in Tennessee that year...

Gotta love golf...

So... AMEN RA... You gotta add this to Amen Ra's corner...

The FORMER 17th hole on Congressional BLUE... Now it's the 18th hole (due to re-configuration)...

Beautiful hole... Between mostly playing the FRONT NINE on the Blue (& playing many rounds on the Gold)... I probably only played this hole less than a dozen times... In any way, you walk across it all the time between the 3rd green & 4th tee-box on the Gold... & of course... it's visible from the clubhouse in the background...

http://www.williammangum.com/golf-series/img/congressional_600.jpg

Classic course... CCC... (in't that where Greek bonds are rated now - keeping it REAL for you bond traders)...

---

For the rest of you... if you're incapable of wrapping your minds around GOLF, BOND(s), & GOLD in the same thread...

Well - Here's your homework assignment...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUnbZDPu5mo

Andy T said...

In all honesty, never even heard of bitcoin until Ben brought it up a few weeks ago.

I finally read up on it.

The problem really is the "procurement" of the bitcoins....

I don't mind the idea of "electronic" currency that cannot be created by central governments, etc....

But, let's face it, a "medium of exchange" on a really large scale must be created from somewhere.

Whether that "medium of exchange" should be created via metals, or some kind of commodity basket, or just "sovereign fiat" backed by "something," the fact is it must be "created" somehow.

The creation of bitcoins is difficult for me to understand.

I guess I just don't "get it."

cv said...

@Andy (10:30)

Touche... As I said... I would REALLY, TRUTHFULLY, be saddened if the US were to break into pieces...

It's hard to explain why... WHY?

Because if one wants to tout THE FOUNDING FATHERS, THE CONSTITUTION, & JEFFERSONIAN IDEALS... well... that's fine... Hey... I'm kinda 'on board' with Jefferson...

But think about it...

Fucking Jefferson was responsible for the 'Louisiana Purchase' (at what - 2 cents an acre... to WHOM? a Napoleonic France needing cash to pay for WAR failures)?...

So basically Jefferson, (I don't kno - I don't feel like doing the geography math), but what? Doubled? Tripled the land mass of the USA?

Of course later came TeJas, 'Gadsden Purchases', 'Sewards Folly', and of course WHAT EVER unnamed folly that made Hawaii ('official BIRTHPLACE OF BHO' - it's true... He says so...), a state...

Poor old Jefferson probably never had any idea it would amount to all of this... IT WASN'T A MASTER PLAN AT THE TIME...

So that's why CV always says 'NICKLES BITCHEZ'...

Has nothing to do with the Cu & Ni... I'm just tossing ol TJ a bone...

cv said...

@Andy

IMO - Don't bother to try and understand BITCOIN...

Too many issues...

Legality?

Oh great!... I'm just going to put all my laundered DRUG MONEY into a bitcoin account so I can buy more weapons at the gun mart...

I'm going to put all my gay lap dances for Barney Frank (& friends), on my BITCOIN account...

Of course... That'll all be mixed with CHURCH LADY remitting her Social Security disbursement thereto to buy some cake mix for the Sunday afternoon picnic...

Hey - maybe if they want to get wild & crazy - they could score themselves some 'acid' in the process & bet on some football games...

I swear to God people are fucking stupid!

Mel said...

...I swear to God people are fucking stupid!

That's a mouthful...but no kidding CV. If you can't sum up the business model in one pithy sentence...forget about it. Not to mention...what's stopping the also-rans...like GETSOMECOIN-ETC.?

Good on the Bee's and Tim Thomas by the way...Flint will have something to celebrate tonight. When push comes to shove...the Vancouver Swedes just can't cut it.

cv said...

Boston Bruins WIN!

Bruins = BEARS

Socioeconomics bitchez!

First time in 39 years... 39 years? Hell that puts us back to the NIXON Administration?...

Wasn't 'Tricky Dick' the dude that:

- Took us off the GOLD STANDARD
- Had (Bilderberg) 'Kissinger' as Sec of State
- Implemented 'WAGE & PRICE' controls

It all worked out in the end, didn't it?

We all got to wear WIN buttons ("Whip Inflation Now"), as an aftermath...

CV has a certain 'nostalgia' for "odd/even" license plate numbered gasoline lines... I made a quick buck washing windshields & doing casual maintenance on cars in those days...

Wasn't really that bad (from my perspective) as I recall...

Hey - as a COUNTERCULTURE... we even got DISCO MUSIC as an offshoot...

So we have THAT going for us (as we speak)...

cv said...

@Mel

I'm almost sorry to say (last post)...

U kno... CANADIAN squads (until tonight) were UNDEFEATED in Game 7's...

I'm not partisan (from an aspect of CA-USA) hockey...

I can't be other than SURPRISED by the Bruins tenacity to win the Stanley Cup...

UFB

Mel said...

CV

I was on a pair of skates at five...played league hockey for 12 years...and rec hockey for another 25. I'm not a partisan either (as long as CA-USA kicks EURO butt) ...being from an "original six" era.:-)

ben22 said...

I don't really know much about bitcoin outside of what EWI has written about it. I'll put some stuff out tomorrow that explains it. To be clear, EWI is not even certain if it (bitcoin) can or will survive, they just think that it is the model for money moving forward.

Mel said...

Ben

I suspect something like Bitcoin could end up being universal fiat...but it's going to take at least a generation...and won't be an individual startup.

cv said...

BITCOIN...

effin 'better' than FIAT (in any case - conceptually)...

But still many hurdles...

Mel said...

CV

If you're still around (I'm on central time)...I'll throw out a couple of reasons...which you've already alluded to: common sense and a simple numbers game...

I meant "fiat" in terms of something resembling a "global currency."

Most of global wealth is controlled by post fifty year old white men...and if they,we, me... as the case may be...don't control "it"...it's not going to happen.

And put another way...if grandma can't wrap her head around it...she's unlikely to exchange "five senses visceral"...whether it's composed of loonies or benjamins, pm's, land,...what have you...up some digital ass...in order to buy more shit she doesn't need. Which pretty much sums it up for me as well...dinosaur as that may sound.

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