Monday, May 16, 2011

Morning Corner 5.16.11

ATHEN (weekly info)
new low 1356.24
trend=down
low= 1356.24
rev= 1469.03; mid= 1412.64


Last weeks close was the lowest ever for the Greece Stock Index. EVER. Even lower than the reaction after their initial bailout. No matter how it's named a debt restructuring is in the making. All European banks holding Greek debt will have to revalue their Greek debt at least 30%-50% lower. The EFSF will get busted as it will not have the funds needed to cover the losses (my .02).



DXY (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 75.76
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 75.76
rev= 72.93; mid= 74.35

These moves by the dollar the last two weeks are large compared to the previous fifteen weeks. I understand that it's the best of the worst when it comes to fiat. Right now it's a safe haven move but for how long is unknown. It is possible for the equity market to drop with the dollar dropping. That will be a sight to see.
at

33 comments:

  1. BinTMay 16, 2011 at 7:17 AM

    http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2011/05/12/n_xerox3_servernation.fortune/?iid=HP_LN

    ...It seems pretty easy to me. Educators must make math fun, from day one of school.

    ReplyDelete
  2. BinTMay 16, 2011 at 7:30 AM

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/treasury-to-tap-pensions-to-help-fund-government/2011/05/15/AF2fqK4G_story.html

    Treasury to tap pensions to help fund government

    ...Prologue..

    ReplyDelete
  3. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 8:22 AM

    BinT

    Federal pensioners are going to be p/o. The Treasury is obligated to repay anything they borrow.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 9:13 AM

    Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 11.88 on expectations of 20. That wasn't a miss that was a drive-by.

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  5. ben22May 16, 2011 at 9:54 AM

    Yo Ra, sorry I couldn't get to the charts this weekend, had some stuff come up that took up all my time. thanks for the dollar chart this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Andy TMay 16, 2011 at 10:12 AM

    Rbob cracks getting beat up again. Amazing.

    That's the way it goes....all these "fundamental" guys telling me about how strong gasoline is and we might be flooding out some refineries on top of that....but the spreads and cracks get hammered.

    Axiom: Fundamentals are Always Bullish at the Top.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 10:17 AM

    Andy T

    RBOB had a weekly 3LB confirmation (by 0.01) last week and is still trading lower. So a close below 3.08 will have it trending down on the weekly 3LB.

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  8. Andy TMay 16, 2011 at 10:58 AM

    Bucky reversed right where it should have given those waves....funny.

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  9. Andy TMay 16, 2011 at 11:04 AM

    sp500 held that 1329 first support nicely....get your rally hats on.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousMay 16, 2011 at 11:53 AM

    AT,

    btw, nice Charts, bro..

    Gracias~!

    AAIP

    AmenRa,

    you 2 ~, as usual..~

    ReplyDelete
  11. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 1:02 PM

    Andy T

    Your support is about to be tested.

    ReplyDelete
  12. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 1:08 PM

    13wk Auction
    b2c = 4.39
    Indirect = 21.70%
    Direct = 10.09%
    Primary = 68.21%

    26wk Auction
    b2c = 5.05
    Indirect = 27.38%
    Direct = 10.29%
    Primary = 62.33%

    ReplyDelete
  13. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 1:13 PM

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iran-president-may-become-opec-president-report-2011-05-16
    Iran president may become OPEC president - report

    By Benoit Faucon

    LONDON -(MarketWatch)- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may become president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, an Iranian news agency said Monday, after temporarily taking over the ministry following the incumbent's dismissal.

    However, a top Iranian oil official said that while the president is in charge of the oil industry at the moment, "maybe he will appoint somebody to represent him" at OPEC.

    "Ahmadinejad may either personally chair the OPEC meeting or he may introduce a representative to the event," Mehr news agency quoted oil ministry officials as saying.

    Ahmadinejad over the weekend sacked oil minister Masoud Mirkazemi as part of a merger of the energy ministry. The president subsequently said he would take the helm of the oil ministry as caretaker.

    Iran, the second largest exporter of crude in OPEC, currently holds the presidency of the organization, which is set to meet June 8.

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonymousMay 16, 2011 at 1:41 PM

    Ahmadinejad in charge...

    that would be awesome.


    Though, the truth is the Saudis will always be in control.

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousMay 16, 2011 at 1:41 PM

    ...In fact the only depository that is up in inventory is, drum roll please……. JP Morgue. Their brand spanking new depository has 41% MORE silver in it’s vaults than it did just 6 days ago. They went from 461,000 ounces to 651,000 in less than a week. Could Blythe and the Banksters be playing a huge paper game to get MORE physical silver? Maybe once JP Morgues vaults are full they will cover their silver shorts and send silver to the moon? Maybe Blythe can ride a real Silver Rocket, this time on the right side of history…..."
    http://dont-tread-on.me/in-6-days-jp-morgue-has-41-more-physical-silver/

    anyone have a take, on that take?

    AAIP

    ReplyDelete
  16. Andy TMay 16, 2011 at 2:05 PM

    If I were short a bunch of a deferred commodity, my temptation would to always be long in the front...so that I could fire bullets in the front when I needed.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Andy TMay 16, 2011 at 2:08 PM

    I find it difficult to believe they're still running a big short in Silver, though...not with all the press they've gotten over the last few years.

    They've probably discovered how 'small' that particular market really is...maybe they are seeing how easy it is to make money being really long.

    ReplyDelete
  18. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 2:16 PM

    AAIP

    I don't think any of JP MORGUE's silver is registered. It's all in the eligible category. So they never have to worry about delivery.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Andy TMay 16, 2011 at 2:24 PM

    "Surprisingly," Donald Trump NOT running for President....

    What a sideshow.

    ReplyDelete
  20. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 2:43 PM

    Does anyone see the line in the sand at 1331 on the SPX? Every time it approaches TICKS will go positive.

    ReplyDelete
  21. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 2:47 PM

    RBOB now below its 50% retrace of its Feb low to May high.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Andy TMay 16, 2011 at 2:55 PM

    I think the support is coming off that low from 5/5/11. 1329 ish....

    Should be interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  23. BinTMay 16, 2011 at 3:06 PM

    E-Commerce Retail Sales

    Prior Actual

    5.6 % 2.6 %


    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

    ..e-commerce seems to be slowing...

    ReplyDelete
  24. cvMay 16, 2011 at 3:46 PM

    "Could Blythe and the Banksters be playing a huge paper game to get MORE physical silver?"

    CV has been postulating that for quite some time now...

    ReplyDelete
  25. Andy TMay 16, 2011 at 3:56 PM

    Robust 'test' going on in the S&P500 right now....on a precipice.

    ReplyDelete
  26. cvMay 16, 2011 at 3:57 PM

    ...and not just with silver...

    QE2, to me, was all about drawing the technical chart patterns in a direction where, AFTER A DOLLAR RALLY & COMMODITY/EQUITY correction, the next move (the QE3 move), will take prices out of reach of the average joe...

    Gold is already out of reach for many... Silver WAS the poor mans gold, but on the next move, large quantities of physical will still be out of the hands of the poor man...

    But that's why I think that they might have to tinker around with the paper price for awhile (keep it low)...

    They need time to seed the idea that this was a 30 year "double top", and that's all she wrote...

    Meanwhile, they'll just keep accumulating behind the scenes...

    Let's put it this way... Not many people really got interested until it passed $30... It's mostly the people who were buying at $18 and below who are the anxious physical dip buyers...

    There's not many of those around... The majority of the peeps still are probably under the impression that SLV is silver (so if the price keeps correcting, they might stay out until it finally bottoms)...

    ReplyDelete
  27. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 4:01 PM

    Closed near Andy's support but market is trying to settle above 1330.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Andy TMay 16, 2011 at 4:01 PM

    Of course, we close right on the 1329 level....

    'Natch.

    ReplyDelete
  29. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 4:06 PM

    Seems like there were quite a few "sell on close" orders for the SPX as TICKS sits around -450 after the bell.

    ReplyDelete
  30. AmenRaMay 16, 2011 at 4:06 PM

    Andy T

    For a second there was a quick push higher in TICKS then it quickly reversed.

    ReplyDelete
  31. LeftbackMay 16, 2011 at 4:39 PM

    Bucky bashing is clearly over. The question is when will the baton be passed to continue this cycle?

    I think we should all remember that this market is only as strong as yen carry. Yen carry (AUDJPY or EURJPY) disconnected from SPX late last year, and usually they march in lock step.

    So keep your eye on whether BoJ sells the yen aggressively and carry "catches up" or whether the yen stays strong and risk trades sell off until the yen carry machine cranks up again.

    ReplyDelete
  32. LeftbackMay 16, 2011 at 4:42 PM

    I am not buying this market until we see a visit to the strong support level at SPX 1295-1300 and NAZ 2700.

    I am also not buying bonds here, 10y are certainly pushing the envelope at these yield levels. Sometimes there is nothing to do but watch and wait.

    European issues will be resolved one way or the other soon.

    ReplyDelete
  33. LeftbackMay 16, 2011 at 4:45 PM

    Liquidity entering the market can go anywhere. You can argue that it is in commodities, high yield, AUDUSD, Treasuries or equities. The reality is it can be almost everywhere, and when it is no longer present the price of almost any asset may fall simply because there is less money chasing that banana.

    We haven't seen this type of event much. No surprise that few know how to play it and many will be caught offsides.

    ReplyDelete