2011 Kentucky Derby - I Got the Horse Right Here


OK, so how are we going to do this?... Are you just going to sit there and stuff your face full of waffles while I GIVE you the likely survivors of the annual Kentucky "free for all", or are you actually going to sit down and do your own homework on the subject...

First rule is... Don't worry if you don't pick a winner... Put 20 horse racing EXPERTS into a room together to select a Derby winner is about equal to putting 20 ECONOMISTS into a room together to build a consensus on what the Fed is going to do next...

Last year CV gave you "Super Saver" as the winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby ($200 on the nose at 9-1 odds)... Here was that:


I followed that up with a call on "FLY DOWN" in the Belmont (nosed out at the wire):


The I got on to more important things (like picking the Green Bay Packers, pre-season, to win the Super Bowl)... But since there MAY NOT BE an NFL season this year, this might be all you get for awhile (unless you're waiting for the inevitable QE3 call, which is more of a foregone conclusion, than "pick" so I'll leave that one out)...

To all you amateur horse enthusiasts, super bowl party chip dip table hanger outers, & Oscar party toasters (you know - the ones who "get into the flow" of these things for one day out of the year - I'm going to give you the "Cliffs Notes" version of how to pick a Derby Horse - so you can sound cool and informed while you're wearing your fancy hat sipping on a mint julep)...

DERBY ANECDOTES (and how to read into them)...
aka - (When someone tells you to bet Calvin "Bo-RAIL", this is how you intelligently say "Pffffft" and tell them why it's different this time...)

CALVIN BOREL (aka Calvin "BO-RAIL") - Successful Churchill Downs based jockey... Has won 3 out of the last 4 KD's... Has a gutsy style where he leads his mount on a trip saving inside ride (close to the rail)... Strangely - Nobody seemed too interested in utilizing Calvins services this year... He finally got a call to ride the #3 horse TWICE THE APPEAL... (20-1) odds on the morning line which may drop because some will just blindly put their $$ on Borel... So I can see little value in playing Borel to make it 4 out of 5 (which would truly be a remarkable accomplishment)...

TRAINERS - Zito, Plechter, Baffert horses are always going to get consideration... This year is no differemt... Zito is running the #8 horse DIALED IN (which is the morning line favorite at 4-1)... Plechter has #18 UNCLE MO (at 9-2 co-favorite) & #4 STAY THIRSTY (at 20-1)... Baffert is running #15 MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (at 10-1)... I'm going to say this more than once... Betting the Kentucky Derby is less an issue of picking the right horse, but GETTING GOOD VALUE... Half the horses in the field are instant throwaways... It's a 20 horse field... So there are 10 throwaways... The 10 you have to pick from then either represent "good value" or "poor value"... Considering you might get 9-1 odds on the 3rd or 4th favorite in the race, if you can narrow your selection down to say 5 horses, you have a decent shot at making some money... So mostly I'd prefer to AVOID these "top trainers" because it's more likely that their horses are going to get bet down below 9-1...

Last year... CV got (9-1) odds on SUPER SAVER (who was trained by Todd Plechter & ridden by Calvin Borel)... it was also on a wet track whereby Super Saver had showed he could handle both a wet track AND the Churchill Downs oval... I was surprised as hell to have gotten (9-1)... If Super Saver had been the betting favorite at 4-1), I probably would have either bet less, or nothing on the race...

Nick Zito horses tend to do well in the Belmont Stakes... My selection, FLY DOWN, for last years Belmont was a Nick Zito horse... Although Zito has won the Derby twice, I prefer to think of his horses as "prep races" for the Belmont Stakes (and other upcoming graded summer races)... With #8 DIALED IN as the morning line favorite for the KD, I see no value there... He may just win, but there's less value in making DIALED IN your selection... For that same reason, I'm tossing DIALED IN out of my exotics... A trainer is not going to risk damaging a good horse if he's not getting a perfect trip... Only about 6 out of any 20 horses get decent trips in the KD... So on quality horses, they might end up just galloping out the last furlong or so if it's not going to happen...

That statement holds true for ANY horse... So it could even apply to whatever horse I narrow my selection down to... Basically what I'm saying is, the odds are just as likely that the horse WINS, or strolls in 15th...

DOSAGE INDEX - A lot of so called experts are going to be saying a lot about "DSI" on saturday... it's more friggin complicated than trying to figure out GDP... It's useful to some degree, but trust me when I say the EXTENT of that degree is in just narrowing the field down to the 10 "no chancers" (which is already pretty much reflected in the morning line)... Over 20-1, and the dosage index probably sucks... In 137 years, some anomalies have occurred (like, maybe 3), thus the 30-1 odds... It's not rocket science...

FORM - A lot will be made of who the "flavor of the week" is... And it totally goes along the lines of the major prep races from the Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita derby, & so on... This doesn't help you anymore than to hear people's BIAS expressed... East Coasters will tell you a West Coast horse will never win... It's all a lot of baloney that "sounds" smart but means nothing... What one "might" consider is if a horse is on the overall IMPROVE, or DECLINE... Some come into the Derby lightly raced (so are not considered as strongly)... Others, like UNCLE MO were expected to do big things then crapped out... The "excuse" for UNCLE MO not winning the Wood Memorial at 1-9 was that he was fighting a stomach virus... Whatever! All I know is that I'm staying away from any horses that are making excuses within a month of post time...

So here's the DAILY RACING FORM for the entries to the Kentucky Derby (if I get time - I'll teach you how to read it)...

DAILY RACING FORM
(for 2011 Kentucky Derby - G1 - 1 1/4 miles - Churchill Downs)


CV's PICKS

As of now, I'm going with the #19 horse NEHRO... This is not an easy selection because in 137 years, exactly ZERO horses have made it into the winners circle from either #17 or #19 posts... Rarely do horses starting from the auxilliary gates (16-20) get their nose on the wire...

But I'm picking NEHRO for different reasons... Mainly because I don't think any of the favorites of the race have shown anything special... Basically this race is up for grabs, so I'm going to GRAB some value... I like "coincidences"... Nehro comes from MINESHAFT (who was an offspring of SEATTLE SLEW)... Seattle Slew (one of the last Triple Crown winners), won the Kentucky Derby on this date May 7th, 1977, and died 25 years later on that exact same date... Hopefully, his grandson will remember that... 

I'm also looking at #11 MASTER OF HOUNDS in the exotic bets (exacta box/trifecta)...

I also have a notion to add #15 MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE & #9 DERBY KITTEN (at 30-1) into a longshot play box...

23 comments:

cv said...

BTW - I wrote this article on Thursday...

yesterday, #18 UNCLE MO was scratched...

Anonymous said...

that 19 hole, starting position, has to be 'cause for concern'...

to me, overall, I think it'd be a better Race if it limited to 15 entries.

tho, do you know any more about 'Derby Kitten'?

from the 8 hole, @30-1, sounds like it may be 'worth a toss' "on the Nose"+"across the Board"..

and, if you could clarify..if you lay down your Bet when 'the Line' is 30-1, and, let's say, 'word gets out' that S/He is the 'hot one', and the Line falls to 2-3 at Post-time, is your 'Ticket' good for 30-1, or 2-3?

AAIP

AmenRa said...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/gilts/8499652/Europe-meets-to-discuss-Greece-debt-restructuring.html

Europe meets to discuss Greece debt restructuring

Senior European ministers were locked in secret discussions with Greece on Friday night that may lead to a restructuring of the embattled nation's mountain of public debt.

Finance ministers from Germany, France, the Netherlands and Finland met their Greek counterpart, Giorgos Papaconstantinou, in Luxembourg as part of efforts to draw a line under the eurozone's sovereign debt crisis.

A restructuring of Greek debt, which would see the terms of the loans extended and borrowing rates reduced, is understood to have been central to the talks.

Greece was the first member of the single currency block to fall in May last year, when it accepted a €110bn (£95bn) rescue package. Ireland followed in November with €67.5bn of external help, and Portugal last month agreed in principle to an €80bn deal.

Greece has since had the rate on the emergency loan cut in return for pushing through further austerity. Ireland is also trying to negotiate more favourable terms, while Portugal claims to have secured a better deal than either of the others.

Sources said the negotiations would address all such concerns, from a restructuring of Greek debt to easier terms for Ireland and a final deal for Portugal. The future leadership of European Central Bank (ECB) was also said to be on the agenda, amid speculation that German Chancellor Angela Merkel opposes the widely-fancied Italian head of the Financial Stability Board Mario Draghi taking over from Jean-Claude Trichet in November.

So a restructuring will cause the holders of Greek debt to write down billions. They may not leave the euro but a restructuring will strain the ECB's ability to prop up the European banks.

qqqqtrader said...

"Rarely do horses starting from the auxilliary gates (16-20) get their nose on the wire..."

cool, I'll go against the odds and pick #18!

Andy T said...

Put me down for $50buck on "Dialed In"

I've never been to the KD, but have a bunch of clients/friends there this weekend. Should have gone....

cv said...

@AAIP

In a "parimutuel" system, the payout goes to the final odds on the pool of bets...

So... there's no "locking in" of a 30-1 bet (unless you'd have done it in some kind of FUTURES system in Las Vegas or somewhere)...

When you get to the teller window, the odds may be 30-1, but if some clown then tosses a brazillion dollars on the nose of your horse just before the starting gate opens, and the "pari" pool... sorry Charlie, your potential payout just changed because there'd be more winning tickets to pay out...

The Bernank is very adept at PRINTING DOLLARS, thus creating the same effect of "cheapened winnings"... :-)

BTW... The way it works is that the track "rakes" about 18% off the parimutuel pool to pay for the purses, taxes, fees, etc... It varies from state to state depending on the laws...

cv said...

I know nothing about Derby Kitten...

Every year I always 'toss in' some kind of horse based on some mindless kabala or numerology...

It went like this...

I like the #19 horse... I also like the #11 horse...

So I got to thinking of 9's & 11's (and the recent Bin Laden thing (you know - where he was shot by Navy Seals singing kumbaya after having infiltrated the compound under the guise of having a marsmallow & smores roast, then, airlifted out to the Indian Ocean whilst tossing rose petals out of the helicopter along the pathway, anointing the body with frankincense & myhrr, & sacred oils, wrapped in 1200 thread count lined, and gently eased into the ocean and floated away... & oh by the way, during the ENTIRE operation, no animals on the planet were harmed in any way, and global warming actually REVERSED itself for a few hours...

So anyway...

- This being the 10th anniversary of 9/11...
- "19" = a 1 & a 9
- "11" speaks for itself, but this is 20"11", and 1+1 = 2

How could I NOT toss the "9" horse into the EXOTIC mixture? (whatever the odds)...

---

My only problem now is that UNCLE MO #18 has since been scratched...

I think that means that #19 will keep the same saddle cloth number, but actually break from the #18 post...

So whatever... I can still use KABALA and say that 1+8 = 9, or, that 9x2 = 18, or that 3 squared = 9, and 3 cubed = um... "27" (the next entry point for spot silver), which is 2+7=9...

Something like that...

I've already arranged for a lobster dinner tonight (trying to get the mojo going to repeat last years success)... :-)

qqqqtrader said...

may be of interest to some,
shows you whats in your comp,
you choose what you want removed,
tried it, works great... PC Decrapifier

Andy T said...

@qqqq.

Thanks for that...I know I have plenty of crap on this computer.

qqqqtrader said...

@CV
put this together in 5 minutes... this may help you to pick a winner, or not

Derby Post Positions

Andy T said...

As "technologically" advances as some of these Big Box stores have become, it's still sort of a disappointment.

My wife just wants a few specific things for Mom's Day. So, I'm under the belief that I should be able to query my Local Target or Walmart and find out if the item is "in stock."

It's "possible," with some effort, to do it for Walmart. It seems IMPOSSIBLE on the Target.com site. Which, seems like bullshit to me.

I mean, "C'mon Man!"

These stores know EXACTLY what's in inventory at any given time. You know, barcodes and everything? Yet, when I type a specific item, it's impossible for Target to tell me if that specific item is at my nearest Target.

Maybe there is a way....but, I couldn't figure it out. Shaking head. Frustrated.

qqqqtrader said...

@AT
That decrapifier won't clean deep into your comp, just programs you don't need and the usual crap that comes with a new comp like AOL signup/preloaded games/free for 30 day stuff/MS Office offers/etc...

Also, I tried to remove a picture organizing program from HP that I've never used but it said it was associated with another program, so I didn't delete it.

re shopping... hate it! (let's the wife handle that for me)

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.apartofny.com/ewis-secret-count/#disqus_thread

Pretty funny stuff here - EWI secret count. I have not subscribed to EWI in almost a year (too much attempting to prove why they are right very unsuccessfully) versus helping me make money. Anyways, supposedly Hochberg has given up, removed all labels.

cv said...

@McHappy

I'd still be inclined to say that EWI Theory has merit (especially with regards to FIBO extensions)...

But since 2008, it has become apparent to me that central bank tinkering and manipulation has succeeded in tripping what looked to be high probability "counts" offstride...

That's just my opinion (which I've been expressing regularly here for, getting on a year now)...

So if a person is automatically predisposed, and/or baked in to the idea that central bankers don't have anything to do with anything, then it could be that EWI gets muddled...

I have no doubt that in the long run, even 'synthetic' attempts at manipulation will get ground down (like a glacier passing over rock)... But that's no way to trade daily ticks if you ask me...

In any case, it's just one persons viewpoint (mine)... and since it's MY money on the line, I'd say I'm entitled to my opinion...

cv said...

Bottom line...

I doubt Bob Prechter ever imagined the reality of a "helicopter ben" who would not hesitate... in my opinion... PRINTING a thousand quadrillion dollars to prove his 'Great Depression' thesis would be correct...

Andy T said...

mcHappy--

that's friggin' hilarious....

AmenRa said...

mcHAPPY

Yeah that is funny!

wunsacon said...

>> So a restructuring will cause the holders of Greek debt to write down billions. They may not leave the euro but

Someone should tell them...:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7kzsZreG0o

Andy T said...

cv: Good guess on Nehro....he looked game coming 'round the turn. But, that Animal Kingdom looked very 'spry' on the stretch. He kicked it into a different gear.

Andy T said...

Memphis Grizzlies...

Who are those guys?

They looked young and good today....

Can visualize a few more OKC/Memphis series in the next few years...

mcHAPPY said...

Andy and Ra,

I figured it would be appreciated here. I started giggling when I read it. My wife asked, "What is so funny?" I showed her, she looked at me with a look of bewilderment, and walked away.

CV,

There is nothing wrong with EW Theory and the rules still hold true - even in these insane days of Q4Ever. The problem in the case of EWI STU (short term update) is the people counting and interpreting the waves (namely Hochberg). EW takes a great humility and arrogance to be able to say, "This is how it is" only to be proven incorrect in a timely manner. The great wavers, much like great traders, can admit when they are wrong, take their lumps and losses, and start again versus fighting come hell or high water to prove their count or view correct. Hochberg appears to suffer from this fatal flaw whereas Neely can turn on a dime with no apologies and get some resemblence of a 'correct' count fairly quickly.

So again I ask: do you want to be right or do you want to make money? I've given up the quest to be right a long time ago and have never been more content in my pursuits. But that is just me and my opinion since it is my money on the line as well.

Prechter is a genius - there is no doubt. I'm sure in the fullness of time the eventual outcome of the days we are living will prove him to be more correct than incorrect regarding his views on deflation. Hell, the P3 count is extremely unlikely but still remains a possibility - so who knows he might be 100% correct yet.

Andy T said...

Happy Mother's Day to all the Mother's out there. I can tell my day will be spent catering to the Mother in my house...which is "ok."

I've got some work on Copper in the hopper...hope to have it out by late afternoon.

Cheers.

PS: Go Mavericks.

AmenRa said...

Lakers...Gone Fishin'

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