DAX (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 6664.40
rev= 7426.81; mid= 7045.61
Germany seems to be pulling a US move by ignoring world events in their markets. It won't last.
Now that Portugal is headed to the ECB with hat in hand Germany has a hard choice to make. Continued support of the currency or let it fail.
2s30s Spread (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
rev= 3.53; mid= 3.77
No fear here…yet. It has rejected its 38.2% retrace and is quickly working its way back to its 23.6% retrace. It'll have to get above the weekly 3LB mid first. But as long as the 30 year mortgage stays under 5% all is peaceful.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-07/portuguese-10-year-bonds-open-lower-yield-rises-4-basis-points-to-8-58-.html
ReplyDeletePortuguese 10-Year Bonds Open Lower; Yield Rises 4 Basis Points to 8.58%
"Portuguese 10-year government bonds opened lower, falling for the 12th day out of the past 13 days, and sending the yield up four basis points to 8.58 percent as of 8:36 a.m. in London.
The two-year note yield increased four basis points to 8.91 percent.
Greek two-year notes also fell, sending the yield up eight basis points to 16.12 percent."
...This little Piigy went to market,
And at 16 percent on the two year, should have stayed home..."
http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/06/markets/thebuzz/index.htm
ReplyDeletePump up the volume? Traders on vacation
"But the slowdown is an indication that some big investors would rather hang on for more data about the U.S. economy and a better idea of how the events abroad will impact the global economy before making any major trading commitments."
...Not me! No uncertainty here! I am certain we're broke, and don't stuff my little head with useless facts....now where's my crayon?
"There is this paralysis among hedge funds," said Jay Lefkowicz, technical strategist at Concept Capital in New York. "If you're short, you lose and if you sell your longs, you lose. So people are just waiting. What else is there to do?"
ReplyDelete...Hell, man. You could blog!
Lefkowicz...Lefty...........nah. Our guy's place would have a snappier name than "Concept Capital"....like, uh, lame-o!
ReplyDelete@72
ReplyDeleteAfter "nope"... Better be careful that it doesn't become ROPE...
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteTo all those great quotes (other thread)...
add...
PROFIT to earnings look attractive & "I've been to all 57 states"...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/german-notes-open-one-basis-point-from-27-month-high-before-debt-auction.html
ReplyDeleteIrish, Spanish, Portuguese Bonds Rally on Bets Crisis Contained
...Let's look at this headline again in two weeks, shall we?
Copper breaking UP out of most recent triangle...
ReplyDeleteMy avatar bitchez!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42464956
ReplyDeleteOil to Soar Above $130 Later in 2011: Poll
"Oil prices will soar above $130 a barrel by late 2011, a new Reuters poll found, and one in five traders said they expected oil to hit $150 this year, levels some economists say could trigger recession."
....Oh, silly rabbit. 130 should cause a recession just fine thank you. You need not go to 150. My cynical side says 108 is probably going to do it right where it is.....what with no housing,any job growth being skewed to the lower end of society, (if it exits at all), and food prices continuing to skyrocket....we are picking the pocket of the consumer, and the writer doesn't apparently know that when recessions start, even Greenspan and Bernanke don't recognize them early...
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteNobody cares about food prices...
They just go on food stamps (so they can keep paying their cellfone text messaging charges)...
And they can't taste tell the difference between sawdust burgers & real beef at the $1 menu window...
http://www.bnet.com/blog/business-research/want-to-become-a-wildly-rich-ceo-don-8217t-go-to-harvard/1221?part=aol
ReplyDelete"If it sometimes seems like all CEOs come from Harvard, Stanford, and Wharton, it’s not just you: New research does confirm that those three schools churn out a relatively high number of CEOs. But it also shows that companies led by CEOs from big-name expensive schools don’t necessarily perform any better than companies whose CEOs have less lofty educations. And the Ivy-educated CEOs don’t earn more either."
...they should have majored in talapia...
AR,
ReplyDeletepretty soon you'll need one of these, before you can, even, buy Rope..
Interpol Chief Calls for Global Electronic Identity Card System
April 6th, 2011
Papelles.
Via: Help Net Security:
The head of INTERPOL has emphasized the need for a globally verifiable electronic identity card (e-ID) system for migrant workers at an international forum on citizen ID projects, e-passports, and border control management.
Speaking at the fourth Annual EMEA ID WORLD summit, INTERPOL Secretary General Ronald K. Noble said that regulating migration levels and managing borders presented security challenges for countries and for the world that INTERPOL was ideally-placed to help address.
“At a time when global migration is reaching record levels, there is a need for governments to put in place systems at the national level that would permit the identity of migrants and their documents to be verified internationally via INTERPOL,” said Secretary General Noble.
“The vast majority of migrants are law-abiding citizens who would like to have their identities verified in more than one country using the same identity document. If countries were to issue work and residence permits in an e-ID format that satisfied common standards internationally, then both the migrant workers and the countries themselves would benefit because efficiencies would improve, security at the national and global level would improve and corruption would be reduced.”
The ID WORLD forum heard that such a card required developing a mechanism whereby the biometric identity features of migrants, such as fingerprints and DNA, would be checked systematically against global databases.
http://cryptogon.com/?p=21650
btw, Code 46, was a pretty good Movie..
~~
cv--
good ol' #44, you should see a list of his '008 Campaign 'Promises', if it weren't so sad...
AAIP
What about CEO's from "Butler University"?
ReplyDelete(or do they just turn out butlers)?
The ID WORLD forum heard that such a card required developing a mechanism whereby the biometric identity features of migrants, such as fingerprints and DNA, would be checked systematically against global databases.
ReplyDeleteAnd if 'someone' decides they don't like you, then OOPS your profile gets hacked, corrupted, and you suddenly have become a treasonous child molester & are sent to the gulag...
ECB raises rates by 25 basis points...
ReplyDeleteOMG! Run & sell all your silver flatware in the pantry!
cv--
ReplyDeleteif the ECB keeps that up, peep will be tossing that worthless Gold & Silver out, into the Dumpster..
ibid.
After the interest rate news, I see that futures are now up 27....
ReplyDeleteMe and Uncle Tepper just love that UPRO thingy...
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bring-qe3-t-afford-not-more-romer-says-20110407-045249-959.html?sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
ReplyDeleteBring on QE3! “We Can’t Afford NOT to Do More,” Romer Says
...Let's all go to Disneyworld! Wheeeeee!
Apr 07 08:30 Initial Claims 04/02 382K 400K 386K 392K 388K
ReplyDelete...The prior week's numbers were revised to 392k....that is soooo close to 400k.......
..Quit making things worse by piling on the debt...let's get on with becoming economically competent so that our children have some chance of success too...the GD lasted a decade, and without this massive debtload...I just wish we'd quit making things worse..
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/apropos-of-everything/
ReplyDeletefrom Brodsky & Quaintance, should be read..
ibid.
CV @ 7:43 AM, ugh, yes, so true.
ReplyDeleteBruce,
ReplyDeleteThe debt will not be repaid. Since I strongly suspect that the only entities buying ANYONE's sovereign debt at this point are the central bankers themselves, then someday they will all sit around a table and forgive all each others' debt that they hold.
In other words, we aren't burdening our children with debt.
ReplyDeleteBut, we are impoverishing everyone in the bottom 90%, who don't gain from the asset inflation nearly as much as they lose at the grocery store or gas station.
Look, I am NOT dead. Perking up a bit after the JCT show.
ReplyDeleteSo far they are selling the Euro on the news. Now we wait to see if any commodity weakness results, and the selling amplifies weakness in EURUSD and EURJPY. Note the oil and miner-rich FTSE is the weakest of the major European marts today.
ReplyDeleteTick tock....
If we were taxing the top 1% at much higher rates, there would be fewer dollars floating around. With fewer dollars floating around, there would be less inflation in assets and commodities. Also fewer real resources would go towards manufacturing yachts, supercars, private jets, and mansions.
ReplyDeleteThe elite's gain is the lower class's pain.
But, that's not the biggest source of deficit-spending/inflation. The bigger sources are:
ReplyDelete- war
- flatter energy production growth (below trend growth per capita), maybe even plateauing
Bernanke will be reincarnated as Gaddafi's favorite camel.
ReplyDeleteIt's karma.
But, we are impoverishing everyone in the bottom 90%, who don't gain from the asset inflation nearly as much as they lose at the grocery store or gas station.
ReplyDeleteMake no mistake that there WILL eventually be an asset deflation...
But it will only come when the following has been achieved...
- current "assets" have sufficiently MIGRATED to unencumbered PHYSICAL holdings (whether they be PM's, food distribution resources, water distribution resources, land, transportation, and energy distribution)...
I doubt TPTB are in any rush to have that happen (because it's easier to incrementally STEAL while pleasuring your victim with DWTS & sports, than it is in any other way)... Meanwhile - the paradigm has already been created whereby the PRINTING of DEBT MONEY in ridiculous amounts is the very thing that gives the wealthiest the opportunity to make the above mentioned purchases...
When all assets are secured, then the FIAT currency will be dissolved, and a new system will be created (fully backed by the same above mentioned assets)...
SAVERS of the fiat will lose all... Your best hope will be to accumulate as much of the "stuff" that will allow you some degree of freedom... Even then it might be hard, because if they want your land - all they have to do is TAX it...
Think "carpetbaggers"
Well, I have begun going outside at night and reading a bedtime story to my little red Prius. It especially likes the one about "The Little Ant that Could"
ReplyDelete...gets me at least another MPG every day, I think...
all that's really happening at the moment are small SURGES (inflation), to test the pressure points of how much the sheeps can tolerate per instance...
ReplyDeleteIt ought to wax and wane... But I expect larger degrees of getting "waxed" going forward...
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteAs soon as I get a horse... I'm going to name it "Prius"...
WTI getting comfy above 109.
ReplyDeleteGold trying very hard to take out 1470.
Silver trying to take out 40.
I am sure you'll find a way to recycle fuel too, knowing you CV..
ReplyDeleteAs long as OATS don't get more expensive than GASOLINE, I should be alright...
ReplyDeleteMy Boy Ross Fisher off to a good start at Augusta.
ReplyDeleteBig Figureitis.
Crude 110, Gold 1500, Silver 40.
Bulls may spend so much energy they forget why they are buying?
Note to rebels:
ReplyDeletePlease someone off Gaddafi and make speech about pumping oil.
Thanks, effendi.
4.62 long bond....
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteI'm going to sort of be watching the 12/06/10 - 2/16/11 time period (on silver) as an indication of how it might behave over the next two months...
That was Ag trying to get thru the $30 barrier...
Carry today forward two months, and you basically have the drop dead timeframe for QE2...
Talk about another tsunami in Japan. Huge 7.4 quake. Don't know where.
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you, I read somewhere just yesterday about a big CME that was headed our way. Freaky.
ReplyDeletethe new earthquake is the reason for the DOW?
ReplyDelete109.10...
ReplyDeleteI think a slowdown is in the cards...
2@ 7.4 off the coast of Honshu
ReplyDeletehttp://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html
I dunno...if I were Japanese, with 200% D/GDP and quakes and tsunamis and nuclear breaches...
ReplyDelete..I'd have to consider moving.
Bruce, I thought the near perfect double top on the SPX hourly was the reason for the drop, but who am I to argue with CNBC?
ReplyDeleteI never argue with them either...
ReplyDelete...Now Leisman, there I find myself considering an exception...
Thanks for the 2s30s chart.
ReplyDeleteAt 381 bps, the spread has come in from its highs, watch for another widening after PPI/CPI combo and auctions next week, and buy the TLT out there at 400 bps.
Had a feeling that daily 3LB range was too narrow. Makes a reversal that much easier too accomplish. Don't tell the algos (they might not be programmed for 3LB).
ReplyDelete"Jennifer said...
ReplyDeleteBruce, I thought the near perfect double top on the SPX hourly was the reason for the drop, but who am I to argue with CNBC?"
~~~~~~~~
Jennifer...it sounds like you're becoming a more skeptical and jaded person....
I like it.
I've been skeptical and jaded for years...just wasn't sharing it here until recently :-)
ReplyDeleteLittle article on how people have bailed out of the Golden State due to taxes:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/42437296
I suppose the "high tax" denialists from California will keep disputing that notion that higher taxes don't work great.
I'm very long Rory McIlroy in various Master's "pools"....
ReplyDeleteShould get a lot uglier from here until tomorrows close...
ReplyDeleteThere was one gap on that move down on the 5 min chart. It's about to get filled. JBTFD...
ReplyDeleteI've been skeptical and jaded ever since I went to school at 5 and discovered the other kids couldn't read, write or do long division.
ReplyDeleteDon't even get me started on Americans learning calculus in college.
If everyone was up that early no wonder they had trouble with division...
ReplyDeleteour school started at 8..
California overspends. Also, thanks to Prop 13, the ratio of tax-on-income vs tax-on-old-real-estate-holders exceeds that of other states. So, where would younger people with incomes want to work? Not California, where they would older land holders.
ReplyDeletewhere they subsidize older land holders.
ReplyDelete110.36
ReplyDeleteWhen I went to school, I walked 2 miles, uphill (each way), through the snow...
ReplyDeleteDoing calculus in my head along the way...
CV
Lefty:
ReplyDeleteyou still accumulation Chimera?
Triangles, triangles. Where are Ben and Karen?
ReplyDeleteHasn't CV been articulating this 'theory' numerous times for about 8 months now?
ReplyDeleteSurprising Observations From TrimTabs: "Are Central Bankers Loading Up On Gold?"
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/surprising-observations-trimtabs-are-central-bankers-loading-gold
Who Is Driving Gold Prices Higher? Speculative Traders and Fund Investors Not Very Bullish. Are Central Bankers Loading Up on Gold as They Print More Money?
AR -- did you see the big leap in TRIN?
ReplyDeleteJennifer
ReplyDeleteYes. It still didn't take out the 3/16/11 level.
SPX testing the lower line of the triangle on the 5 min chart.
ReplyDeleteBen would say that these are continuation patterns -- should break down.
ReplyDeleteMaybe you could argue that it did break down...for one 5 min bar. pffft.
ReplyDeleteHere comes the squeeze (again)...
ReplyDeleteJennifer
ReplyDeleteIt peaked over the edge and didn't like what it saw.
Considering todays events I'm surprised the DXY, EURUSD and JPY haven't moved that much.
ReplyDeleteRuh roh. SPX just broke through the top edge of the triangle (5 min chart).
ReplyDeleteA peek above, a peek below...I know which view I prefer :-)
ReplyDeleteDon't tell me they will drag this thing out so it doesn't resolve today...
ReplyDeleteJennifer
ReplyDeleteThe apex is 9:55AM tomorrow...
Did you ever notice that Ben and Karen are gone at the same TIME?
ReplyDelete...I mean, really, what else could it be?
...Sorry, Lefty..
And I-Man is gone this week too...
ReplyDelete...Too kinky to entertain the thought...
(that goes for you too, Lefty..no off-color thoughts with the K-ster....)
Good golly what a day. The floor on the salt mine almost caught fire a couple of times today....we've been movin'!
ReplyDeleteI was doing calculus before Isaac Newton was born!
ReplyDelete...maybe a few days after, then, but not much...
Bond Report:
ReplyDeleteRisk, on, a bit. JNK up.
Belly of the curve, ok.
Long end, sold off, a bit.
MUB rallied. MBB didn't.
Got me some of that 4.62% action.
Expecting we will see higher yields at next week's auctions.
Over and out.
Bruce
ReplyDeleteWe love CIM but we only usually buy on deep selling on nasty panic selling plunge days. We bagged a large load of it last week when it fell into the 3.80s, be patient, let the puck come to you.
Later, kidz.
ReplyDeleteCalculus is a lot easier if you don't wait for the hormones...
ReplyDeleteAnyway, you teach it with a ruler first and then learn the math.
Bruce
ReplyDeleteToo many apples landed on your head when you were young.
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/
ReplyDeleteAtlas Shrugged Part I Apr 15
...Yes, you too can read the epic on the screen...
...this will be easier than the Kindle, Lefty...don't worry.