10yr T-Note (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 120.250
rev= 118.500; mid= 119.375
Last week was a bearish engulfing in a downtrend. Doesn't exactly make it a reversal when it's with the trend. Currently it's trading below its weekly 3LB reversal (down) price so the auction may have a tail (spike in yields). But it's now solidly below its SMA(55) and quickly approaching SMA(89). That gives and a spike in yields may be the least of the US worries.
30yr T-Bond (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 120.125
rev= 116.281; mid= 118.203
Unlike the 10yr Note the 30yr seems to be decent. It's not below its weekly 3LB mid. It's not below its 50% retrace (117.945). It's been below its SMA(55) for a few weeks and is now getting below its SMA(13) this week. Not expecting too much in yield movement at the auction this week. But that could change if the auction is weak.
TED SpreadHeld the upper trend line and is back above its weekly 3LB mid. Euro troubles are bubbling back to the surface.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-09/palm-oil-may-climb-12-on-shortages-extending-record-food-price-advance.html
ReplyDelete"Palm oil, the world’s most consumed cooking oil, may climb 12 percent in the next several weeks on shortages, said Dorab Mistry, who has traded the commodity used by Nestle SA and Unilever for more than 30 years.
The tropical oil, used in candy and instant noodles from Baltimore to Beijing, will probably advance to 4,000 ringgit ($1,319) a metric ton in Kuala Lumpur, said Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd., who correctly predicted the surge since June. That would add to a 35 percent gain in the past year."
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Palm+Oil
ReplyDeletethe 'Price' of that stuff should be 'multiples' higher..
LSS: it's a 'Plague', in more ways than one..
AAIP
but you can't EAT it! :-)
ReplyDeletehttp://preview.tinyurl.com/6j4eogy
ReplyDeleteExclusive: Bill Gross Dumps All Treasuries, Brings Total "Government Related" Holdings To Zero, Flees To Cash - No QE3?
And many thought Bill Gross was only posturing when he said he is getting the hell out of dodge. Based on still to be publicly reported data by Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, in the month of January, has taken its bond holdings to zero (and -14% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis). The offset, not surprisingly, is cash. After sporting $28.6 billion in "government related" securities, TRF dropped to $0.0, while its cash holdings surged from $11.9 billion to a whopping $54.5 billion (based on total TRF holdings of $236.9 billion as of February 28). This is the most cash the flagship fund has ever held, and the lowest amount in Treasury holdings since January 2009 before it was made clear that the Fed was going to adjust QE1 to include Treasurys in addition to Mortgage Backed Securities.
***Guess who won't be showing up at an auction near you. Ruh roh?
good morning! today will be odd.. seesaw, anyone?
ReplyDeleteGross has been woefully wrong about bonds in the past.. LB's model cannot be ruled out and is, in fact, still in play..
ReplyDeleteShhhh! SPX just went below its weekly 3LB mid. Don't tell the algos.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/sell-financials/
ReplyDeleteStiglitz says Europe faces same 'lost half-decade' as Japan on budget cuts http://is.gd/fQkzT8
ReplyDeleteRe: Gross
ReplyDeleteThis is akin to "sitting out a race" (on a 9 race card)...
Who wants to make ANY bets on the QE2-QE3 dark rift??? Betting on the actions of central bankers is like betting on maiden claimers...
i would say that copper (JJC) did break down its triangle yesterday, confirming today..
ReplyDeleteJJC has turned trend chart down..
ReplyDeleteMr. Soros was also asked about Carl C. Icahn, who sent a letter Tuesday informing investors that his funds would return all outside capital.
ReplyDelete“Given the rapid market run-up over the past two years and our ongoing concerns about economic outlook, and recent political tensions in the Middle East, I do not wish to be responsible to limited partners through another possible market crisis,” Mr. Icahn wrote.
Asked whether he thought Mr. Icahn was right to think the current market environment posed threats for hedge funds, Mr. Soros said simply: “Carl Icahn has his own problems.”
Mr. Icahn’s former right-hand man, Keith Meister, was reported in December to be planning his own event-driven fund, seeded with $250 million from Soros Funds. The new firm is called Corvex Capital, and it also has attracted Mr. Icahn’s former chief operating officer, Rupal Doshi, Hedge Fund Alert said.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/soros-the-world-does-need-order/
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/happy-2-year-anniversary-bull-market.html
ReplyDeleteAccording to this Bloomberg story, $12 TRILLION has been pumped into the financial system by governments and central banks - that's simply astounding. It's almost equivalent to a full year of GDP by the world's largest economy.
http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2011/03/equities-bi-winning-but-for-how-long.html
ReplyDeleteMust Read Macroman/TMM
$12 TRILLION has been pumped into the financial system by governments and central banks
ReplyDeleteSo what does $12 trillion buy you these days???
About 2,000 DOW points?
That's about $6 billion per point...
ReplyDeleteRoughly the size of a daily POMO...
They could have just sent each person on the planet a check for $2,000 (or, an ounce of gold, plus about 20 pieces of silver) and called it a day...
ReplyDeleteOh wait... They don't have all that gold and silver to hand out...
NEVERMIND...
Bespoke
ReplyDeleteNot to be a wet blanket, but unless the S&P 500 makes a new closing high (above 1,343), the bull market ended on 2/18. $$
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/09/apple-ibm-other-big-stocks-have-dominated-two-year-bull-run/
ReplyDeleteWhile the S&P 500 has added $6.2 trillion in market cap over the past two years, 10 stocks have been dominating the party, accounting for slightly more than 20% of the total increase.
Keith McCullough
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the Bernank knows what the VIX is
Dear Bernank, LTCM didn't factor volatility into their "forecasts" either - dont sweat it
3 minutes ago
Karen,
ReplyDeletefrom your link:
"One amazing statistic I had not know was that the 3rd year of a presidential term has not been negative since 1939. This is generally the time the president tries to juice the economy to win re-election, so maybe we've always had a form of 'goosing the market' - it is just much more explicit nowadays."
I like mystical thinking, it allows us to tell such wonderful stories. In our ever so efficient markets our president is "goosing" (tr.v. goosed, goos·ing, goos·es Slang: To move to action; spur: goosed the governor to sign the tax bill)
the economy and thus the markets. This is such a compelling argument, how could it not be true?! Since this is the case, I guess then Democrats have to give credit to Reagan and the GOP credit to FDR what with all the wonderful things that happened in the economy and markets after they took over.
While we are patting each other on the backs, all of us should give credit to that Adolph Hitler as well, not for his acts against humanity of course, but for what a great gooser he was! That economic expansion in Germany that occured after he took over was epic.
further down, I see Bloomberg has allowed LameHo "Favorite Stock for 2008 is AIG" Birinyi to totally re-write history. this line from the second para of the BLOOM article:
"Laszlo Birinyi, who told clients to buy as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009."
Come again?
that is really, hilarious, for anyone willing to do maybe 15 minutes of digging, but sure, why the hell not, he bought the lows and that man has been "right about everything".....oh....and the stock market started in 1962, anything before that should be ignored, different world, no iPads, no NFLX, and most importantly, no Twitter.
As for the 12 trillion, that's funny, but why bother talking about what it really is, lets just pretend it's been "pumped in" and like a big balloon it will float into the atmosphere, then to space, and then beyond, forever and ever. I want to be on the big balloon. Don't you?
alright, gotta head out, I heard about buying the dip from a guy that knows about these things, I don't really know exactly what this guy does, but I respect that he's out there doing it. I care desperately about what I do though. Do I know what dip I'm buying? No. Do I even know anything about any of these companies? No. But I'm here, and I'm gonna give it my best shot.
Keith McCullough
ReplyDeleteThe entire world is now betting against The Bernank in the currency market - highest USD cumulative short position since 2003 $UUP
I keep seeing effing flags everywhere
ReplyDeletejust an idea on symmetrical triangles to throw out, since they are basically everywhere still:
1. There is seldom any clue given on the one chart containing the triangle to tell which direction prices are going to break out of the pattern until it finally occurs. Sometimes you can get a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen by observing what is going on at the same time in charts of other stocks.
(IMO, we've only seen a two leg move in a lot of individual stocks, so I think odds are this triangle breaks down)
lets say it doesn't and goes up (though this applies in either case)
2. pg 103, Edwards and McGee: the farther out into the apex of the Triangle prices push without bursting its boundaries, the less force or power the pattern seems to have. the best moves up or down seem to ensue when prices break out at a point somewhere between half and 3/4 of the distance of the base (left hand end) to the apex.
Ben.. that is fascinating from Edwards and McGee... also, you didn't comment/reply on the Richard Lehmann video link..
ReplyDeleteRichard Koo: How the West is Repeating Japan’s Mistakes http://dlvr.it/JkNTX
$copper really broke down now..
ReplyDeletebroke the triangle, i mean.. whether it breaks the neckline has me on the edge of my seat..
ReplyDeleteI still haven't watched it yet 8-)
ReplyDeleteWill do this afternoon
it is short! i'm watching the Koo video now..
ReplyDeleteand the stock market started in 1962, anything before that should be ignored, different world, no iPads, no NFLX, and most importantly, no Twitter
ReplyDelete---
CV has a PLAN...
They ought to schedule "The Olympics" every year (maybe even twice a year from here on out)...
Look how well Greece is doing only 8 short years after hosting...
An economic miracle!
If I were a country I would seriously consider voting to never host The Olympics. All of the funds spent on infrastructure that goes to waste when it's over. Better off picking one country agreeable to all and use it for the Olympics. Each country would then pay into a fund for maintenance and security. JTOL.
ReplyDeleteWait a minute. That sounds eerily similar to the IMF's bailout fund. n/m
oops on copper.. neckline broken.. now will there be follow-thru??
ReplyDeletesilver.. gold... crude next??
ReplyDelete"oops on copper.. neckline broken"
ReplyDelete---
Does that mean that Marc Faber is going to hit the airwaves and tell me my nickles are now "WURTHLEZZ"???
These up moves today have been quite vicious. Throwing everything plus the kitchen sink to keep this market afloat.
ReplyDeletekaren,
ReplyDeletethat's a solid H&S on copper, good looking out, and I've not really seen anyone talk about it.
break looks good too, would think the minimum price target would have something like JJC approach that 200 day if it's the real deal.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/a-note-on-oil/
ReplyDeletethat cinches it. krugman is truly clueless.
Thx for the YM chart last night, Ra!
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=w1
ReplyDeletegetting that re-test of ~4.20 on ye olde 'Red Metal'..
AAIP
http://www.futuresmag.com/News/2011/3/Pages/Defending-crude-oil-speculators.aspx
ReplyDeleteFCX sell off continues.. catch a falling knife?
ReplyDelete$indu breakout??
ReplyDeleteCV et al.,
ReplyDeleteJust a few words from a long-time lurker up here in Alaska. My partner went to a local Chinese restaurant yesterday and received the obligatory fortune cookie -- she brought the little fortune home and this is what it said:
"You will have gold pieces by the bushel -- better than stocks!"
ROR
Socionomics?!
Many(!) thanks to all of you for this blog -- I have learned so much from each and every one of you.
This shit is a fucking battlefield today...
ReplyDeleteLong Kenai Kings...
ReplyDeleteJeff Gundlach on cnbc.. no link yet.
ReplyDeleteI love fortune cookies!! thank you for the story, Gus : )
ReplyDeletespeaking of..
ReplyDelete"Bespoke
Not to be a wet blanket, but unless the S&P 500 makes a new closing high (above 1,343), the bull market ended on 2/18. $$"
the 'Equity' Markets, since that Date, look like G*rbage..
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1
ibid.
If Cu goes down to test its 200MA (which it appears it is at risk of doing)...
ReplyDeleteWhat really changes in the broader picture?
All you'd really be doing is taking out the PREMIUM between the spot price now, and what WAS the spot price around 8/08 when the margin rout commenced...
You'd have to go a lot lower than the 200 MA to really be talking about a collapse in prices there...
I'd say the situation is about as logical as one might expect...
Qe2 - Qe3 is all anything is about...
Threaten to take the punch bowl away, prices collapse for awhile... Ride to the rescue when everyone cries uncle...
Jawbone, Jawbone, Jawbone...
NEW BOOK OUT!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.amazon.com/Crapshoot-Investing-Tech-Savvy-Clueless-Regulators/dp/0132599686
Crapshoot Investing: How Tech-Savvy Traders and Clueless Regulators Turned the Stock Market into a Casino [Hardcover]
Jim McTague (Author)
karen,
ReplyDeleteand, some wonder why I've been making cracks about ~'flipping your Lucky 50c-piece'...
ibid..
@Gus in Alaska
ReplyDeleteMany are unaware that "the Bernank's" name IN CHINESE is:
Li Ying
Whew. Finally got into the mine.
ReplyDeleteThe palm oil thingy I posted this morning was just another thing....I am wondering...clothes check, food check, energy check...even the cost of cooking food. Cost-push..
Yes, the cost-push inflation thing may be with us for awhile, but the huge debt monster in the closet in my opinion trumps it.
...But it will be interesting to see how it plays out..
$INDU still in triangle on weekly chart.. no sweat yet !
ReplyDeleteAmen:
ReplyDeleteThe Bill Gross thing is fascinating. Truly.
Since he's actually put his money where his mouth is, I will have to start paying more attention to him...I am afraid I was dismissing him as trying to sway opinion to help out with earnings...apparently these were true beliefs..
@Bruce (12:21)
ReplyDeleteI went out and bought a bunch of pairs of blue jeans the other day...
Rumor has it that they were BIG in Moscow in 1989...
I bought new jeans myself CV last week...15 bucks for Wranglers...
ReplyDeleteWhen I retire, jeans 24/7.
In one week we get the PPI and CPI...
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be something, I mean really something, if after that data that S&P downgraded US debt by one notch..
Yep, you're right, just not in the realm of possible things...more likely Lefty gets a date with Swedish twins.........
IBM, rolling my eyes, broke out (and up) again! UFB..
ReplyDeleteCAT is still in a triangle.
12 Arizonans charged in mortgage fraud scheme
ReplyDelete7 minutes ago
(AP:PHOENIX) Federal prosecutors say 12 Arizonans are charged in a multimillion-dollar mortgage fraud conspiracy.
U.S. Attorney for Arizona Dennis Burke says in two cases, the defendants illegally obtained more than $19 million in loans and more than $5 million in cash back loan proceeds.
Prosecutors say the defendants are charged with various counts of conspiracy, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud, aggravated identity theft, money laundering and conspiracy to commit transactional money laundering.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897682827180790
one of many^many, a, true, 'drop in the Bucket'..
ibid.
MCP at apex of triangle..
ReplyDeleteto go with thos Blue Jeans..
ReplyDeletedon't forget
http://www.cheapestees.com/hanesbeefyt.html
AAIP
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MCP
ReplyDeletelooking like ~40..
ibid.
the rareearth.lotteryticket.com game has been 'Played' .. those 'valuations' are Insane~
"Crazy Eddie" would be Proud..
interesting that yesterday's IBM investor day reversed the H&S on the chart..
ReplyDeleteif this isn't institutional distribution, JBTFD
State AG's have to play up smaller cases before the public gets their head around the foreclosure screw up. Once the public realizes the state AG's let the banks off yet again the public should start calling for their resignation.
ReplyDeletething about fortune cookies is, I thought you were supposed to add "in bed" at the end of each one?
ReplyDeleteis that not true?
I have fairly simple question:
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me for the last year or so when stocks in Europe tank at the end of the day, that we tend to close in a similar fashion. Is that true or just happenstance?
What a chopfest on the SP500....we're building up for "something" to happen....
ReplyDeleteMark Thoma
ReplyDeleteSlowing China - Barry Eichengreen - http://icio.us/UUrNRD
@ AT
ReplyDeleteMakes stop placement a real bitch...
ben.. ha ha, never heard that. here are the 3 fortunes i've saved keep taped inside (liquor) cabinet door:
ReplyDeleteGood Health will be ours for a long time.. in bed.
You will be coming into a fortune.. in bed.
Fortune smiles upon you at this time.. in bed.
Makes the I wanna take a 357 Mag to the head of this bull...
ReplyDeleteSee how good it works Karen. I love to play that game at CV's favorite overpriced PF Changs.
ReplyDeleteOn another note, I have T. Petty Breakdown in my head.
Do they say anything about triangles in that song?
Make that a 12 gauge with slugs...
ReplyDeleteOr fuck it, I'll just shove a stick of dynamite up its snout.
Yesterday on Twitter someone said to replace the word "lube" for love in popular song/movie titles or sayings..
ReplyDeleteLube the One You are With
Lube Me Tender
Lube Will Keep Us Together..
What's Lube Got To Do With It?
ReplyDeleteAll you Need is Lube
Lube the one you're with!
One Lube.
ReplyDeleteYou guys are killing me. I almost just spit my lunch out all over the computer...
ReplyDeleteLube with a proper stranger.
ReplyDeleteben! my gal in dallas just emailed me out of the blue.. forwarded to you as a fellow watch lover (not luber, lol!)
ReplyDeleteLube means never having to say you're sorry..
ReplyDeleteLube makes the world go around.
ReplyDeleteLube is a battlefield...
ReplyDeleteLube ballad.
ReplyDeleteAll is fair in lube.
Lube me in a special way.
Lube injection.
All you need is lube:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-09/human-penises-evolved-to-promote-longer-sex-researchers-say.html
Lube Hurts?
ReplyDeleteLube Stinks.
Better lube.
ReplyDeleteNever lube again.
Inside my lube.
A Lubers Holiday.
WASHINGTON |
ReplyDeleteWed Mar 9, 2011 12:55pm EST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The head of National Public Radio resigned on Wednesday after the organization’s chief fund-raiser was secretly videotaped criticizing conservatives and questioning whether NPR needs its government funding.
The resignation of president and chief executive officer Vivian Schiller came as Republicans in Congress, some of whom have long opposed what they see as NPR’s liberal bias, were targeting public broadcasting as an area for budget cuts.
On Tuesday, senior fund-raising executive Ron Schiller, no relation to the CEO, quit after being taped making disparaging remarks about members of the conservative Tea Party movement during a private lunch with conservative activists posing as potential donors.
A statement from the chairman of the NPR board of directors, Dave Edwards, said the news of Vivian Schiller’s departure coincided with “a traumatic period for NPR and the larger public radio community.”
Edwards’ statement said the board accepted her resignation “with understanding, genuine regret and great respect for her leadership.” NPR’s media reporter, however, sent a tweet saying that Schiller was forced out by the board.
NPR has been campaigning to retain its federal funding as Congress seeks deep cuts in many areas to address a huge budget deficit.
NPR says only about two percent of its revenue comes from federal funding, through grants from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and federal agencies like the Departments of Education and Commerce.
NPR’s biggest revenue share comes from program fees and dues paid by member stations that broadcast NPR programs. But the member stations are heavily reliant upon funding from federal and state governments as well as the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and many are financially threatened.
NPR drew fierce criticism from some conservative media and Republican critics last year when it abruptly fired news analyst Juan Williams, who was also a commentator for FOX news, after he made controversial comments about Muslims.
(Reporting by Deborah Charles; Editing by David Storey)
Karen,
ReplyDeleteWow, that's a nice one, really nice, wife doesn't like yellow gold though, she's into the white gold....
Ok, while we are all having a good time, here's another thing that's fun to do, put the word anal in front of Ford auto models, works for other companies too, but I'm fond of Ford:
Anal Ranger
Anal Probe
Anal Fiesta
Anal Focus
Anal Edge
Anal Tempo
and on, and on
Sorry....used to have a lot of free time.
Anon
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering how that discussion will go with the Bloomberg anchors...
love this! How humans got big brains, barbless penises http://dlvr.it/Jl0v7
ReplyDeleteben22
ReplyDeleteI think Ford does that when they come up with the names anyway.
ben, she needs both.. it's an investment! LOL..
ReplyDeleteLibyan business jet is in European airspace,unclear where it is headed, NATO official says - AP http://on.msnbc.com/dOH8yR
ReplyDeletea funny story from CPalace shops in Vegas when I was looking at Cartier there a few years ago.
ReplyDeleteMy buddy says to the salesman:
"When do these watches go on sale?"
Response:
"When you write a check or give me a credit card."
You know these articles could be PR for "ribbed"...
ReplyDeletewhile the triangle grinds on, I heard a no fly zone would cost us roughly $1 billion per year.
ReplyDeleteSeems like a relative bargain eh?
CV,
ReplyDeleteHow many tilapia would you trade me for a gold watch? How about a gold watch with a chronograph?
I'd prefer Perch of course, but just trying to plan ahead if SHTF.
Never Gonna Fall in Lube Again
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-driver-gold-you’re-not-watching
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gross-no-way-out-of-debt-trap-us-living-standards-doomed-to-fail-2011-3
ReplyDeleteanyone look at a C chart lately?
ReplyDeleteLube me or leave me....
ReplyDeleteanother triangle breakdown: RIMM
ReplyDeleteOh, my those were some good ones! I'll never fall in lube again.. sounds good to me!
ReplyDeleteHi everyone! I've been out all day -- thanks for not letting the triangle break without me.
ReplyDeleteI think AT is right....something big coming here
ReplyDeleteLike the last song they wrote together
I've Got a Feeling
could just be the lube though....
on another note, the JPM/Silver stuff seems to be reaching a fever pitch.
Karen -- MCP reports either tonight or tomorrow morning I think, so I wouldn't want to bet on that triangle.
ReplyDeletei won't tweet this tip but someone here should short RIMM.. triangle breakdown and all..
ReplyDeleteA waterfall would be nice...
ReplyDeleteCan't help falling in lube
ReplyDeleteI used to lube her
When a man lubes a woman
Lube shack
Will you lube me tomorrow
Everybody needs someone to lube
50 ways to leave your luber...
Anal Tempo ?? time warp?
ReplyDeletetry,
Anal Fusion .
ibid.
could also be a short term H&S on RIMM
ReplyDeleteHead is 2/18, good volume for the pattern, maxed out in the left shoulder, feb 10 or 11 at quick glance.
Might have also broken the intermediate trend line from August 2010 lows, depends on how you draw it though...
zerohedge
ReplyDeleteNomura Commodity Desk Liquidation Blamed For Commodity Weakness http://is.gd/HeK7s0
J-
ReplyDeletegood call on MCP, reports Today, after the Close..
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&f=earningsdate_nextdays5&o=-marketcap
ibid.
ibid,
ReplyDeleteI learned to drive in an Anal Tempo. We had some great moments together, one involving a mail box and a bottle of water, another involving some soccer fields full of snow, and still another in a drive buy water ballooning of the girls Volleyball team.
Used to rock out to my tape of this song in that car:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlcfQGj134o
just found a real bull market guy on twitter.. BAC to $15 he says..
ReplyDeletespy pennant will resolve up.. his best tweet of today:
allstarcharts J.C. Parets
I love to see shorts get squeezed. If we start to see an $XLF rally, pick your favorite bank. Risk management #1 priority $C $BAC $KRE $$
Louise Yamada predictions - $80 Silver, $2,000 Gold & $140 Oil http://bit.ly/fobiGY
ReplyDeleteDynegy warns it may have to file for bankruptcy http://yhoo.it/h0nyVN
ReplyDeleteBreaking News
ReplyDeleteMagnitude 6.0 earthquake near the east coast of Japan - usgs http://1.usa.gov/hULaSL
ES can't seem to break beneath VWAP. Had to visit my dear friends at the emergency room again yesterday evening...first warm day in months so oldest face planted off her scooter onto the sidewalk and demolished her nose. She looks bad today but they say she'll be fine.
ReplyDeleteKaren -- I like Louise, but I still remember a spectacularly bad call for 65 on the $dxy a couple of years ago, right before bucky really took off.
ReplyDeleteJennifer keep those stories coming.. Ben will never have children and I'll be increasing happy mine are nearly grown and gone! (my youngest, the one with burst appendix this past fall in hospital 3k away is reported this morning he may now have mono..)
ReplyDeletewhy do i feel like a bloody mary all of a sudden? i know i don't look like a bloody mary..
ReplyDeleteI eat bulls for breakfast...
ReplyDeleteJennifer
ReplyDeleteGlad she'll be ok. I have enough scars and scrapes from being a kid to last two lifetimes.
Thanks...for a little nose, there was a lot of blood!
ReplyDeletemight reveal his bullish bias by calling the SPY a pennant. It's a triangle to these eyes.
ReplyDeleteWhy's that different?
triangles can be key reversal patterns, Flags and Pennants are ONLY consolidation patterns.
I think the best clue is volume in this case, volume tends to diminish more rapidly in pennants than it does in flags or triangles. A quick glance at SPY volume and you can see that's not happening.
This has to break today, right? I don't think I can wait much longer.
ReplyDeletesorry Jenn.. the market loves to string us along.. surely their will be a trick.. anyway, no suspense.. JBTFD !!
ReplyDeleteThis sentiment seesaw is driving me nuts. Above weekly 3Lb mid is bullish and below is bearish. Today is a 15 round fight where neither fighter will go down.
ReplyDeleteoh no! another one IWM..
ReplyDeleteThe reincarnated PT Barnum says "JBTFD!!!"
ReplyDeleteToday the market is similar to a multiple car wreck. You want to look away but you can't.
ReplyDeletei just got goose bumps.. WSJ Wall Street Journal
ReplyDeleteWe just published our annual list of the top 50 venture-backed companies: http://on.wsj.com/eZ202J
i have a lot of shares in #49
I've never had this many huge gains retrace so fast...
ReplyDeleteThe double edged sword of VOL...
Jenn, if this sucka dont break today and close on the lows...
ReplyDeleteI am so wrong in my work I dont even want to contemplate it.
Brenna Hardman
ReplyDeleteMassive trade just put up in $XLF a minute ago .. looks like a buyer of 120K June 18 calls for .31 on #CBOE
thanks for the Yamada link, love her. Those are some bold calls, going to try and see her in Philly this summer if she comes around.
ReplyDeletek-
ReplyDeletere:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=C
why the wide-on for C?
anyway, looks like it has 2 'overheads' the MA(s) @~4.70 & ~4.80 ..
~~
McB,
that's interesting..way back when, I was 'between vehicles' .. drove my sister-in-laws Merc. Topaz --the sister car to the Tempo--between her lack of PM, and the car's native, Metric induced,'quirkiness', it was something else..
though, for the Price, 0 , it was hard to beat..
but, sometimes, it felt like those old 'Service Station'-gags, from the '50s, ~"fill the Fluids, and check the Gas.."
ibid.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-g-mcdonald/a-new-world-financial-ord_b_833227.html
ReplyDeletemy opinion? QE2 will be more damaging than previously imagined. the law of unintended consequences and the unknown unknowns.
ReplyDeleteI don't recall that Tempo being very reliable either, though I might have had some, or maybe lots, to do with that.
ReplyDeleteFeel lucky dippers?
ReplyDeletek-
ReplyDeletelike this: Service-now.com Inc.?
AAIP
b22,
most of it had to do with her lack of PM, I will say that given the abuse it endured, it kept 'ticking' -- the 5-sp Manual, certainly, helped, though, I'm sure..
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/09/ibms-big-move-bolstering-the-dow/
ReplyDeleteI bet lots of traders are just waiting around to fire off some TD orders as CV might say.
ReplyDeleteonce it breaks I would imagine folks will pile on, think a lot of people are just waiting around.
I'm still expecting more downside, it's only been one leg down and sideways, pretty rare if it would stop at that point, but not impossible.
once it breaks I would imagine folks will pile on, think a lot of people are just waiting around.
ReplyDeleteThat's what I'm doing here!
k-
ReplyDeleteyou may want to check if they're attending
http://symposium.uptimeinstitute.com/symposium-2011-registration/?utm_source=miscrit&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-miscrit
ibid.
"...Uptime Institute is excited to open registration for Symposium 2011. Now in its sixth year, the Uptime Institute Symposium, taking place on May 9-12, 2011 at the Santa Clara Convention Center, is the most influential all-stakeholder thought-leadership conference serving the data center industry, and attracts speakers and Delegates from over 40 countries. This year's Symposium, The Disrupted Data Center: Cloud, Cost, Capacity and Carbon, focuses on how data center planners, designers, builders, owners and operators can anticipate and respond to disruptive changes such as cloud computing, virtualization, volatile demand and rapidly evolving modular architectures..."
Anal Taurus. Did a lot of off-roading in that thing. Always had to stop at the car wash before I went home.
ReplyDeleteMy favorite was the original caravan, wooden panel doors. Cruising through corn fields with a navigator on the top.
For parents- Don't let your kids drive the minivan, if you have one. I was the first to get my licence, and had about 12 people in the car doing a speed test the first day I got my license.
How could that have possibly turned out bad?
Wooden Panel Doors
ReplyDeleteYes!
yes, Service-Now.
ReplyDeleteBank of America says nearly half its mortgages are 'bad' http://bit.ly/i0eQEN
ReplyDeleteNicTrades Nicola
$NZD RBNZ rate decision in 15mins, will they cut or will they hold. %% AUDNZD my favourite trade for this
here is another Bull i haven't unfollowed:
ReplyDeleteMarketFinancial The Market Financial
Both $OIL and $GLD are bull flagging $SPY $SPX
the market is too quite.. i'm about to lose it, laughing.
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeletedo these folks on twitter have any kind of track record?
A lot of these patterns mentioned are pretty weak analysis like that mention of the pennant, unless Im reading it wrong, for example, the SPY is not a flag, the price swings are just too large for it to be that.
If Louise Yamada is right about $80 silver...
ReplyDeleteThen $35.50 would be a .618 RETRACE of $80 back to $8...
Right where the market has been busy painting lines the past few days...
Douglas Kass
ReplyDeletegun to head, stocks could begin to decouple a bit from crude price. bulls might be surprised if a few dollar drop in oil yields stock drop
http://pragcap.com/the-muni-state-of-denial-and-huge-risks-in-high-yield
ReplyDeleteJGundlach on cnbc link
$2000 gold/$80 silver would also take the ratio down to 25:1...
ReplyDeleteStill shy of the 5,000 year old 16:1 standard weighting...
Dougie Kass seems to have lot of guns pointed at his head. I feel bad for him.
ReplyDeleteI gotta admit though, if I saw $2,000 to $80 at the same time, I'd probably convert a little silver to gold there...
ReplyDelete@spoonman
ReplyDeleteI feel bad for Obama...
All these things in the Middle East & high gas prices HAVE to be cutting into his time dedicated to filling out his NCAA bracketology...
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Williston+Basin+Bakken+
ReplyDeleteAAIP
ben, twitter has all kinds.. i will unfollow marketfinancial.. it is a web-site apparently.. maybe it offers a paid service.. i don't know.. or care.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.TheMarketFinancial.com/
and ZH's take: Gundlach Sees Munis Dropping Another 15-20%, "By The Time All Muni Shoes Drop It Will Look Like Imelda Marcos' Closet" http://is.gd/3FLSby
ReplyDelete"All these things in the Middle East & high gas prices HAVE to be cutting into his time dedicated to filling out his NCAA bracketology..."
ReplyDeletehighly doubtful, he seems to have more free time for stuff like that than most people I know, and he's such a baller himself, after all.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand: 50bp cut to 2/5%
ReplyDeleteIt can be helpful to view other traders ineptitude and misapplication of technical patterns...
ReplyDeleteGives you a good sense of your competition.
:)
Whats beautiful is they probably say the same shit about me/I/whatever.
ReplyDeleteI-Bro,
ReplyDeletesome of that Silicon, ain't so Silly..
:)
AAIP
http://www.forexlive.com/172157/all/reuters-blowing-up-left-and-right
ReplyDeleteThis is big east tourney week, rutgers st john's on now. There is always a TON of bandwidth given to streams of basketball this week. I wonder how much effect this really has.
espn3, you can watch most games in very good quality, on the computer
speaking of basketball
ReplyDeletenova has basically fallen apart
are they even going to get in now?
Fuck this, I need a break from market related talk.
ReplyDeleteSee yall on the flipside.
Nova is good, very tough conference this year, this is just the last fist fight before the big dance.
ReplyDeleteStar-crossed lubers...
ReplyDeleteThe lube of my life..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/pimcos-total-return-fund-pttax-worlds.html
ReplyDeleteBrenna Hardman
ReplyDelete$EEM: someone just bought 3K May 48/50 call spreads for .78. Lots of bullish activity in $EEM - see vid: http://tinyurl.com/6zq2dnk
The Big East Conference Championship wipes so many of the 'deep runners' out emotionally, they end up getting bounced in the NCAA's before they even get a chance to make it to the final 4 or elite 8...
ReplyDeleteThat's one of my "rules" of bracketology...
Fade the conference champions...
or I should say "tournament conference champions"...
ReplyDeleteVia: Foreign Policy Journal:
ReplyDeleteIn his important 2006 book, Nemesis, the Last Days of the American Republic, the third and concluding part of a trilogy, the late Chalmers Johnson, who was an expert on Japan and US foreign policy, writes that as much as 40% of the Pentagon budget is “black,” meaning hidden from public scrutiny.[1] If the figure is even approximately correct, and I believe it is, the number is alarming because it suggests that democratic oversight of US military research and development has broken down. In which case our democratic values and way of life are presently at risk; not from without, as there is no foreign enemy that can destroy the US Constitution, but from within.
I would argue that Chalmers Johnson’s estimate was corroborated on September 10, 2001, on the eve of the worst terrorist attack in US history, when Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld acknowledged during a press conference that the Department of Defense (DoD) could not account for $2.3 trillion of the massive Pentagon budget, a number so large as to be incomprehensible.[2] Any remaining hope that the US military might still get its budgetary house in order were dashed at 9:38 am the next morning, when the west wing of the Pentagon exploded in flames and smoke, the target of a terrorist strike. Incredibly, the exact point of impact was the DoD’s accounting offices on the first floor. The surgical destruction of its records and staff, nearly all of whom died in the attack, raises important questions about who benefited from 9/11. Given the Pentagon’s vast size, the statistical odds against this being a coincidence prompted skeptics of the official story to read a dark design into the attack. As Deep Throat said: “Follow the money.”...
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20992
CV, completely agree, the refs like to see fights, takes a lot out of the teams, and now so many teams...It's not worth winning, but always fun to watch.
ReplyDeleteAT,
ReplyDeleteStill staying strong on X wave?
I'm wondering if the larger wave from the August isn't over just yet, that you have marked as "Y", if we break out to the upside it could always truncate and end that way instead. I suppose you could still count five waves in there and maybe it truncates around the 61.8% of "W" at that 1339 on the cash.
Neely mentions today the E wave of his neutral could still be play but I'm not as into that interpretation of the charts as I am the WXYXZ scenario
the fibs are just really clean on the second count and I've been looking hard at the timing of each of those legs in terms of months/weeks/days and even those could have some nice fibo action in them.
got 2 hop, I'll try to catch up later~
ReplyDeleteAAIP
Gundlach quote:
ReplyDelete"You know what the definition of an investor? It is a trader who is underwater. People say they hold to maturity until they get scared and sell."
CV,
ReplyDeletesorry, can't get on board with that at all
Duke won the ACC tourney last year, for starters.
I could see fading low seeds that end up winning their conference tourney, don't think they last much past the second round in most cases, but I'm not fading a solid team that wins its conf. tourney, at least not in early rounds.
The Big East this year is something different than maybe any other conference from top to bottom over the last decade.
Interesting day...Bill G. dumps treasuries and meanwhile the yield is down to 3.47.
ReplyDeleteBizarro world..
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/3/9/2011-year-end-price-targets.html
ReplyDeleteSocionomics Interview: Kevin Depew Discusses Robert Prechter's Theory Ahead Of 2011 Socionomics Summit http://mvil.me/fiZLhB
ReplyDelete@ben22
ReplyDeleteDuke, last year was an anomaly...
I'm statistically correct with my assessment (going back many years)...
You need to apply the theory in great numbers, not the handful that buck the odds...
I'll probably be going with Ohio State to win it all...
Odd that todays high on the SPX was just below the daily 3LB mid. Each time the SPX approaches the weekly 3LB mid the NYSE TICKS go positive with a vengeance. It has to give sooner or later.
ReplyDeletetriangles always take longer than expected, lets just pretend for a moment this doesn't need to be redrawn:
ReplyDeletehttp://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=706&mode=view
if so, close to the apex, pop up and out could be weak as a result.
this in relation to my post to AT above that maybe his "Y" wave isn't over after all.....hard to say.
HYG:LQD did dump today.. JNK looking heavier and heavier.
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeleteI'll normally defer to you on items football, but I likely watch and no more about basketball than you.
Here's a list of title winners recently that Im' nearly certain without even looking won their conference tourney in the same year:
Duke 2001
Florida in 2006 and 2007
Kansas in 2008
Uconn in 2004 and 1999
there are lots more.
er....that's know more
ReplyDeleteor no more, I suppose....
The same computers must have been in charge of trading in the US and Europe today...large sawtooth oscillations.
ReplyDeletemini waterfall in SMH
ReplyDeletei could make the case that $bkx just formed its right shoulder..
ReplyDeleteI thought about going to that Socionomics but decided I didn't want to make the trip. It's probably going to be pretty cool.
ReplyDeletethey just put out a very interesting paper at SI about College Prof's and their pay/popularity.