IWM/SPY (wekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.6010
rev= 0.6281; mid= 0.6154
Say what you what but this proxy for liquidity is saying liquidity is increasing. This week it is now trading above its weekly 3LB reversal price. Doesn't look like the market implosion is ready to take place just yet. Give it time. Even stars fall from the sky in due time.
30Yr Bond (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 121.750
rev= 118.500; mid= 120.125
Bernanke is safe for now. But it's testing its weekly 3LB mid indicating that a chance to move lower may be in the works. The move will probably happen in May or early June as QE2 nears expiration.
DXY/Gold (monthly info)new low 0.0545
trend=down
low= 0.0545
rev= 0.0600; mid= 0.0573
FYI. As you can see the value of the dollar relative to gold is abysmal. It's also still falling.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/30/hershey-idUSN3018007320110330
ReplyDeleteUPDATE 2-Hershey raises candy prices by nearly 10 pct
....TEOTWAWKI!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-31/german-bund-yields-near-highest-in-15-months-before-europe-inflation-data.html
ReplyDelete"Portugal’s two-year yield increased 20 basis points to 8.23 percent at 10:28 a.m. in London, the most since 1996, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 10-year yield rose for the eighth straight day, climbing 10 points to 8.20 percent. Irish two-year note yields rose three basis points to 9.56 percent, while the 10-year yield was at 10.10 percent after earlier rising to 10.25 percent."
...Well, hell, here is the answer to the US debt problem. Buy Portugal debt at 10% and sell US bonds at 3%...! In time we pay off the national debt!
...I, too, could run the Fed. Where did I put that application?
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteDoes that mean that the little chocolate nickles that were worth 5 cents, now will cost you 5.5 cents...
I'm still happy with my REAL nickles that still cost 5 cents, but are worth 6.8 cents...
But you can't EAT them... (like you can your i-Pad)...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-30/dimon-says-hundreds-of-municipalities-in-u-s-won-t-make-it-out-of-debt.html
ReplyDeleteDimon Says 100 Municipalities in U.S. Won’t ‘Make It’ Out of Debt Crisis
...Now wait, we already "proved" Meredith was making wild predictions when she said the same thing. I guess this will be the end of J-boys career...
I always wanted to eat the ears on the chocolate bunnies...but my brother usually had quicker molars.....
ReplyDeleteMy wife fixed asparagus from the garden last night...we've found this is one thing the deer don't like...they will bite the tops out and spit them out in the garden....I hope they make a bad face when they do it...(don't have the deer netting up yet)....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-30/hoenig-blames-fed-for-higher-commodity-prices-urges-monetary-tightening.html
ReplyDeleteHoenig Blames Fed for Rising Commodities; Urges Tightening
..Actually Hoening went in to buy M and M's...found out they'd gone up 20% and went ballistic....chocoholic you know...
@Amen (this from yesterday/OPED Barofsky)
ReplyDeleteThough there is no question that the country benefited by avoiding a meltdown of the financial system, this cannot be the only yardstick by which TARP’s legacy is measured
See - I like most of what Barofsky said and was trying to say... But the whole argument, for me, becomes untied when someone says we BENEFITTED BY AVOIDING A MELTDOWN...
Says who???
See? That's the problem... Put 100 people in a room, and you'll find 100 people who think, say, collapse & anarchy are a bad thing (except if CV was in the room)...
It makes me laugh, today, anyone that talks about OUR FOUNDING FATHERS (and what this country was built on)...
OUR FOUNDING FATHERS, were, (according to King George) treasonous traitors (who would have been put to death if they'd have lost)...
So to say we BENEFITTED by avoiding a meltdown is not accurate... The only ones who BENEFITTED by avoiding a meltdown were those whose asses were already cozily planted in a seat of power (and the second tier of court jesters who SERVE them)...
I'm embarassed to say that I'm NOT the one who is going to self immolate on the steps of Congress to make my point (much to the chagrin of the TRADERS around here)... Nor am I going to join any tyrannical acts...
But the best way I can oppose the system is to not participate (not borrow, not trade, not use their services, buy as LITTLE of their goods as possible)...
& if EVERYONE did that, I'm sure you'd later see more people who could CARE FRIGGIN LESS if a meltdown occurred...
..It appears the idea that you could export inflation to China, which was the Leisman-type economic jounalist idea, will apparently have to undergo some revision.
ReplyDelete..Uncle Volcker, where are you when we need you? We have Arthur Burns and Jimmah Carter II on stage now, and the audience is turning nasty...
I will spell journalist any damn way I want to...
ReplyDeleteIn the future I will spell it "reporter"...
ReplyDeleteFood inflation kept hidden in tinier bags
ReplyDeletehttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42317990/ns/business-us_business/
Of course, CV has been saying this for over a year now, but it isn't until someone who is REPUTABLE (like - from a MSM publishing operation) says it until anyone believes it...
Nearly time to get to the mine....didn't buy UPRO today...give it a rest for a few days..out of money to buy it with anyhow...
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteAlso, per what I commented on yesterday (Ag above $36)...
Consider that today is the last day of the month...
So, a CLOSE today (above $36) would not only slap a new 3LB MONTHLY HIGH on Ag... It would also be a new 3LB QUARTERLY HIGH...
Just saying...
Anything above 33.83 would be a new monthly 3LB high.
ReplyDeleteInitial claims at 388k down from a rev 394k (orig 382k). A 12k revision. Ouch.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/31/smallbusiness/small_business_price_increase/index.htm
ReplyDeleteInflation pressures grow on Main Street
"Business is definitely still soft. But we've gotten the screws turned on us from our suppliers," said owner Lisa Metwaly. "We had no other choice. I just hope we don't chase any more customers away."
...Methinks we will have a problem short term. I also think the jobless numbers may show an increasing number of government jobs are going..
@Amen
ReplyDeleteMy reference wasn't to the ACTUAL 3LB MONTHLY new high, but rather that the NEWLY established one could end up being OVER $36 (which is a psychological level that has been discussed by many for many months on the PM bull blogs)...
CV
ReplyDeleteIt wasn't that long ago when $30 was the level to protect. Guess the goalposts will continue to move until somebody breaks.
Weekly revisions for initial claims are getting larger. We'll probably be back above 400k in under a month.
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteWell I wonder if the COMEX has people in there picking through the rubble of all the silver that was blown to smithereens on Obama's PEACEKEEPING mission in Libya last week...
http://dont-tread-on.me/how-and-why-the-elite-destroyed-3-tons-of-silver-last-week/
Bondholder Haircut From Ireland May Shut Italy, Spain Funding
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-31/bondholder-haircut-from-ireland-may-shut-italy-spain-funding.html
Question: "So why isn't the dollar rallying on this news"?
Answer: "You wouldn't believe me even if I told you"...
Fed's list of banks who used the discount window has been released (two years later)...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/42355639
ReplyDelete"Portugal's National Statistics Institute estimates the debt-stressed country's national budget deficit last year was 8.6 percent — far above the government's target of 7.3 percent.
The estimate published Thursday was another severe setback for Portugal's attempts to avoid taking a bailout as Greece and Ireland had to last year."
...The Spanish should finally get us home this year...
Home being the place you go when you are out of money...globally.
ReplyDelete@ the one and only I-Man
ReplyDeleteWas just wondering what you may have for some longer term prices on the Dow. (your answer may affect my 401K, or may not)
tia
CF up 5%..
ReplyDeleteYield curve now inverted for Portugal and Ireland bonds: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/portugal-yield-curve-meet-kansas
ReplyDeleteFactory orders down .1%..unexpectedly..
ReplyDeletehttp://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/auto.htm
ReplyDelete..By the way, truck sales are still 2 MILLION below the levels of, er, 1995....
"Unexpectedly" should be stricken from the Oxford Dictionary unexpectedly.
ReplyDeleteb'n't -
ReplyDeleteusda crop planting report out today shows planned acreage up ~5%
"USDA Crop Report Looks Bullish"
(www.thestreet.com/story/11067830/1/usda-crop-report-looks-bullish.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN#)
The USDA said it expects U.S. farmers to plant 92.2 million acres of corn, up slightly from the conventional wisdom in the market, which was expecting around 91.7 million acres, according to the trade web site Agriculture.com. That's up 5% from a year ago and would represent the second-largest planted acreage in the U.S. since 1944. In 2007, farmers planted 93.5 million acres."
sorry for the url in previous comment rather than a hot link. for several days now blogspot seems to no longer permit me to post "a href=" links. it posts the comment for a moment then deletes it. while appearing briefly, its dateline includes html code like this:
ReplyDeleteMarch 30, 2011 4:46 PM http://www.blogger.com/delete-comment.g?blogID=862875562554214862&postID=8452674249547164302
72bat
ReplyDeleteThat's odd. I haven't had any problems posting hot links. Are you using "a href=" or "<a href="?
@ 18
ReplyDeleteHeading out of town for a few days, will get you some numbers upon the I's return.
Quick overheads off daily:
12320: Last Gann SQ 9 target off the November low
12372: 2/18 high pivot (not price extreme)
Call I crazy, but still looking at lower levels...
11690 needs resolution, and I still think we see 10500 come into play in early April.
ra -
ReplyDeleteusing <a href="
substituted "a href=" in case it was the < that was causing the delete.
email me at batmando(at)gmail(dot)com and i'll send you the comment text with the embedded html
SP500 sort of struggling into that 1332...not really turning in any "convincing" way though...
ReplyDeleteThe Bernank is loving it....
On the 60min. chart for Silver. Looks like more congestion coming in the next few days. It looks like it wants to chop between 36.75 and 38 some more.
ReplyDeleteAndy T
ReplyDeleteI see a channel on silver 60 min chart using yesterdays and todays low plus the two highs from today.
slv on a 30 over the last five days has put in a very visible, bullish, cuppish base over the last 6 days (from 24 March)
ReplyDeletekaren
ReplyDeleteWho broke off the handle on SLV on 3/21?
BRK-A down 2%. Who is actually selling a $100,000 stock?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.robertsinn.com/2011/03/31/the-relevance-of-volume-in-markets/
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/wal-mart-ceo-america-prepare-serious-inflation
ReplyDeleteWalmart CEO: prepare for serious inflation.
@72
ReplyDeleteMost of the time, blogger will spit you back a notice if the html code wasn't bracketed correctly...
@Amen (1:23)
ReplyDeleteLook - I've been talking about food inflation for quite sometime now, but WALMART CEO coming out now and jawboning about it seems a bit 'opportunistic'...
Like - "Oh boy... Here's our chance to improve some margins by jacking up some prices and/or lowering the portions on the GREAT VALUE generic lines"...
Not that I wouldn't take him seriously, but it seems a bit strange at this juncture in the curve...
Either that - Or the Bernank phoned him and said "QE3 imminent"...
CV
ReplyDeleteI know you have. It's now starting to hit the MSM with more frequency.
Ra-
ReplyDeletere BRK-A, time for a 1000 to 1 split, eh?
ahab
ReplyDeleteThat particular stock will never split. Since Buffett doesn't believe in stock splits it'll never happen.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteWell it must be part of the Bernank's "wealth effect" plan...
Peeps used to be able to get the crappy ground beef for $1.99 a pound (while the PREMIUM was $3.99 a pound)...
Now that the crappy stuff costs $3.99, they can say "LOOK! You've now upgraded to PREMIUM...
Voila! Instant wealth effect! You're living in the lap of luxury now! - ror
I think the Bernank is going for the "dollar split"
ReplyDeleteI still can't believe that the SPX has been in a $4.70 range all day.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if this is good or bad but the VIX will close below its monthly 3LB reversal down price today.
Maybe this is why the market is jittery today: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/31/businesspro-us-usa-markets-etfs-idUSTRE72U4C420110331
ReplyDeleteETFs plunge triggers "flash crash" memories
By Rodrigo Campos
NEW YORK | Thu Mar 31, 2011 2:23pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ten new exchange-traded funds briefly plunged early Thursday before the trades were canceled, triggering memories of last year's "flash crash."
Nasdaq OMX Group Inc said it canceled trades in 10 new ETFs sponsored by Scottrade affiliate FocusShares, some of which plummeted as much as 98 percent at one point.
The new FocusShares ETFs started trading on Wednesday and are trying to compete with more established funds by offering lower costs for broad-market ETFs.
Looks like that recent move in the markets has pushed the VIX back above its monthly 3LB reversal price.
ReplyDeleteI feel as if I just watched grass growing.
ReplyDeleteWhy is Ally having an IPO? When it was know as GMAC Financing it brought down GM.
ReplyDeleteThat last 5 min candle looks ominous but TICKS after the close stayed above 300.
ReplyDeleteQue sera sera.
ReplyDeletenueva página hasta ahora
I feel like Superman imprisoned in another dimension...
ReplyDelete