30 Yr T-Bond (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 121.906
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 121.906
rev= 117.938; mid= 119.922
The strength of last weeks reversal is wearing off fast. I guess holding the long bond is not the preferred option. If the large bond holders feel that higher yields are in order to hold US debt then expect this move down to continue.
NFLX (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 212.43
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 212.43
rev= 234.71; mid= 223.57
These are not the streaming movies you are looking for. Has a glitch appeared in the matrix? Is the glitch Amazon? When will Netflix have to pay for infrastructure? I'm old enough to remember running to the video store to get the new rentals. How time flies.
Meanwhile here in flyover country, the gas that was 2.97 three weeks ago is now 3.36 yesterday, up from 3.25 48 hours earlier.
ReplyDeleteYes, this will leave a mark...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/cotton-sales-surge-in-australia-as-u-s-is-sold-out-shippers-group-says.html
ReplyDelete"Cotton buyers have purchased more than 80 percent of the coming harvest from Australia, the fourth-largest shipper, stepping up the pace of advance sales as a shortage pushes prices to a record, an industry executive said.
The amount of so-called forward sales compared with usual levels of 50 percent to 60 percent at this time, Phill Ryan, a director of the Australian Cotton Shippers Association, said in an interview. “The U.S. is the biggest exporter in the world and they are sold out,” Ryan said yesterday in Canberra."
..That's ok, Lefty. You can save money by leaving the L monogram off the cuffs...
(No, actually he has an L put on the left and an R put on the right...what did you think?????)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/rogoff-says-debt-restructuring-inevitable-in-greece-ireland.html
ReplyDeleteRogoff Says Debt Restructuring ‘Inevitable’ in Greece, Ireland
"Portugal will accept a financial bailout “within the next few weeks” as the cost of issuing debt becomes unsustainable, according to Axa Investment Managers, which oversees $714 billion in assets. Rogoff said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung published Feb. 10 that countries such as Greece and Portugal should be urged to leave the euro region for 10 to 15 years to help restore public finances."
Portugal will accept a financial bailout “within the next few weeks” as the cost of issuing debt becomes unsustainable...
ReplyDelete---
Good thing we have a printing press then... We're so "smart"!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/trichet-faces-oil-shock-as-inflation-above-2-makes-ecb-officials-fret.html
ReplyDeleteTrichet Faces Oil Shock That May Damp Growth, Fuel Inflation
“Trichet will have to assure the public that the ECB is alert and won’t tolerate inflation,” said Klaus Baader, co- chief euro-area economist at Societe Generale in London. “At the same time, the economic recovery is still rather fragile and spiking oil prices will weigh on consumption and company profits.”
....I see a way to save money right now! Trichet can use the same speech Bernanke just gave congress. Brilliant!...(Please, hold the applause.)
CV,
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about this last night. What has this prolonged low interest rate policy done? Let's see. Housing bubble, inflation abroad and now here in food, decreased incomes for the elderly, confusion in Fed policy, a prolonging of the federal credit card mentality....and a devaluing of the dollar and possibly a new round of Arthur Burns stagflation.
..Seems like a lot for one little policy to rasie this much havoc...plus China wants to own all the iron ore, oil, etc. they can get their hands on...
...interesting times...
ht/ZH
ReplyDelete...and with air coverage, the no fly zone [Libya] will likely be instituted by Monday of next week, which, as Robert Gates telegraphed earlier, is the codeword for a "NATO" invasion.
Which means this weekend will likely be do or die in terms of game theory defection choices for the Gaddafi family: will he defect peacefully and spend the rest of his days with his friend Robert Mugabe, the world's second best performing stock market after the NYSE Borse, and a few hundred pounds of gold, or will he set fire to the Libyan oil infrastructure as he leaves the scene kicking and screaming...
ROR
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b2de27c4-4501-11e0-80e7-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1FXUu3K2u
ReplyDeleteFed’s Beige Book points to inflation
Why are futures higher? DXY & EURUSD have barely moved. Gold, silver and oil are down. Was the the fact that the market didn't make any headway into the long down day? The rumor that Chavez has a plan to settle things in Libya?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailyfinance.com/story/retirement/state-worker-retirements-are-soaring-across-the-country/19863365/
ReplyDeleteState Workers Are Retiring in Droves
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteCV's "THEORY" (and I will continue to express this until all of you get this through your KNUCKLEHEADS is this)...
- The game is over (as far as the dollar being the worlds reserve currency)...
- The Fed (& PD's know this)...
- While everyone else is still running around 'trading stocks' (which are valued in that 'soon to be EX RESERVE CURRENCY' - actually it has already ceased in that function in practice - it's just nobody has officially acknowledged it yet), the Chinese are runnung around buying all the raw commodities in the world and warehousing them...
Copper, Gold, Silver, Crude, Cotton, anything they can get their hands on...
The PD's kinda know this too, and are buying contracts for physical as well...
---
All anyone is waiting for right now is the "announcement" of QE3 (or NOT - perhaps)...
Not that it really matters, but it WOULD have a short term blip in prices...
So let's say there's NO QE3??? Well guess what??? Stocks would tank, the RECOVERYLESS RECOVERY would take a further hit, and within 2 months, they'd probably have to come in with another RESCUE anyway... Which means??? QE3 anyway...
OR - They just go ahead and keep monetizing the debt... Well in that case, commodity prices just keep going vertical until some other endgame is reached...
---
I'm hopeful of the first scenario and fearful of the 2nd...
Either way, it doesn't matter... The only difference is whether you'll get a chance to buy physical silver at $30 (or $25 at worst)... Frankly - If that happened, I don't think there would be any silver left on the planet (because I'd bet JPM itself would get Bernanke to print them some dollars, and buy up half of SLV and stand for delivery)...
But we'll see... Bottom line is, as long as the dollar is 'technically' the worlds reserve currency, it's just a COUNTERFEITTING mechanism to acquire raw goods...
So, as an individual citizen, what do you want to spend your time doing???
- Start procuring your own little warehouse of the raw goods you find handy in your daily life (& for your family and friends who might need your help)???
- Trade slips of paper based on the "prices" of various things that really have NO VALUE, then go REDEEM any "profits" you made for Federal Reserve notes (which are being devalued under your nose)... And, of course, pay the government a TAX on the profits of those transactions???
I know what I'd choose...
Amen:
ReplyDeleteJBTFD...
Food Prices Hit New All Time Record In February
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/food-prices-hit-new-all-time-record-february
"You can't eat food. It is a barbaric relic..."
ReplyDeleteI hear Ritholtz is filling his shelves with "Fancy Feast" (brand) catfood...
ReplyDeleteWhat we REALLY need to do is to turn all out corn into ethanol to stop global warming...
ReplyDeleteFrom TBP:
ReplyDeleteFutures are very strong today — I expect trading today will be the key pivot point of this rally. If it fails today, we should expect significant downside, on the order of 5-10%.
If the rally shows breadth, volume, and a close near the highs, it will make me rethink my correction stance.
More to come later . . .
@Jennifer
ReplyDeleteConsider yourself lucky to have the opportunity to live in a time where you can teach "food austerity" to your children...
Market is afraid of being under the weekly 3LB mid for the second week in a row. Hee hee. My .02
ReplyDelete@Amen
ReplyDeleteI'll bet half the 'fund managers' are underperforming this quarter (because the market has been ready to nosedive since December & most have probably been playing it safe)...
Catch up time?
Watch the high beta going into the last 3 weeks of the quarter... (Plus XOM & COP don't look all that 'bearish' to me)...
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/03/real_estate/housing_buy_or_not/index.htm
ReplyDeleteHome prices: The double-dip is near
"On Tuesday, we found out that home prices were near their post-bust lows. Two days later the government reported that January saw a double-digit dip in the number of new homes sold.
Then Robert Shiller, the Yale economist and co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes, dropped this bomb: "There's a substantial risk of home prices falling another 15%, 20% or 25%," he said."
...Well, the mine is booked s o l i d today...will have to gun it in a few minutes...
"Well, the mine is booked s o l i d today"...
ReplyDeleteDon't tell me the Bernank is doing a John Dillinger!
peep w/ 1/2 a wit should, seriously, pay attention to this construct:
ReplyDeleteSo, as an individual citizen, what do you want to spend your time doing???
- Start procuring your own little warehouse of the raw goods you find handy in your daily life (& for your family and friends who might need your help)???
- Trade slips of paper based on the "prices" of various things that really have NO VALUE, then go REDEEM any "profits" you made for Federal Reserve notes (which are being devalued under your nose)... And, of course, pay the government a TAX on the profits of those transactions???
I know what I'd choose...
LSS: 'Dollars' are a bad deal..
AAIP
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteI was interested in that COW/CALF auction you were talking about in the the last thread...
I'm looking at trying to get ahold of another couple of acres of "grazing" grounds...
good morning!
ReplyDelete"After a busy 2 days on Capital Hill, Bernanke is back in the turret and futures are surging. ;)
That resistance at S&P 1314 will be smoked in premarket - as almost any resistance level the past 2 years has been taken care of."
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/so-much-for-resistancepremarket-gappage.html
speculators running wild, i swear:
ReplyDeletehttp://pointsandfigures.com/2011/03/03/flash-crash-in-cocoa-futures/
Another shite morning on the NY subway system... Effing 3rd world country.....
ReplyDeletewell, a few days ago, ol' AFIA pointed out:
strike 1 : ADP
strike 2: claims
strike 3: NFP
as being curve balls ahead for fixed income. we are now at strike 2. then we have auctions next week, so we see the long bond being well back into our buy zone (4.6%-4.8%) by the middle of next week. After that we are back to our usual stance. These may be PEAK EMPLOYMENT numbers for now, and the RECOVERYLESS RECOVERY continues.
Our hedge is green and so is our SPY. Happiness.
Why aren't you helicoptered into work, AFIA?
ReplyDeletecv--,
ReplyDeleteI was, really, shocked to see Calves trading at those Prices..
some were going for less than U$D 40/head ..
even, on the 'high end' they were less than U$D 90 ..
'Pasturing' those dudes would be a 'lay-up'..
though, it'd be helpful do be 'buds' w/ a DVM..at the min..to begin with..
ibid.
My thanks to Bob for saving me excess losses on EURUSD, that was a good place for stops to be set. Mes remerciments...
ReplyDeleteBruce, nobody gets rich by flashing the readies to get to work....
Today will be some form of melt-up/squeeze/bear roast. The interesting thing today will be to watch the laggards as they are the next sick wildebeests to be picked off.
ReplyDeleteFXI has just traded horribly of late. Even if there is a squeeze for some days, the re-entry will be inviting next week.
That's re-entry, not rear entry...
Sometimes I come first thing in the morning.
ReplyDeleteDXY 76.38 low, still above the 10/14 low.
ReplyDeleteThe 11/04 low was 75.63, that's the line in the sand.
WSJ special on the dollar's decline today.
Peeps reading on the train.
Sentiment extreme?
Looking at the first five 1-min candles indicates the bulls DO NOT have complete control.
ReplyDeleteEEM breakout?
ReplyDeleteWell, LB, your SPY must be up a whole point, point and a half! Are you going to take the chips off the table.. I assume you bot thousands and thousands of shares.. Or keep for SPX 1500? Just call me sour grapes, laughing.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/german-two-year-yields-at-highest-level-in-18-months-ahead-of-ecb-meeting.html
ReplyDelete"German two-year government notes plunged, pushing the yield up to the highest in more than 20 months, as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said interest rates may be increased at the next meeting.
Ten-year yields also surged as Trichet told reporters in Frankfurt that inflation risks have moved to the “upside.” The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent."
...At a trading saloon in Deadwood, a fixed income trader slings open the swinging doors and comes out firing. "Trichet and Bernanke didn't stand a chance" he is said to have remarked as he reloads his six-shooter...
Jen
ReplyDeleteI think EEM squeeze.
Many HF had Long DM:Short EM trades on.
Sour Grapes
We probably will not overstay our welcome in SPY.
Middle of next week for that one.
Ra
Look for a Death of Treasuries crescendo next week.
Bears will be wondering if this is H&S set-up.
ReplyDeleteWe think it will be more like S&M for them.
triangles everywhere! $bks, $rut, $wlsh, $spx..
ReplyDelete$tran not looking so good.. that's an H&S tilted in the down direcion..
TICKS didn't hit a new high after the push this morning. Guess it's not as bullish as it looks.
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM&ty=c&ta=0&p=d
ReplyDeletelook at the 'Pennant' on that puppy~
~~~
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CC&p=h1
Cocoa, hourly
ibid.
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteI was, really, shocked to see Calves trading at those Prices..
some were going for less than U$D 40/head ..
even, on the 'high end' they were less than U$D 90 ..
'Pasturing' those dudes would be a 'lay-up'..
My thought is that it might have something to do with grain prices... If you're doing it COMMERCIALLY, the last thing you need is another mouth to feed...
So really, it might come down to individuals who has their own meadows buying small herds... Roughly speaking, you need around 2 acres (one to graze, and the other to grow more fodder on a rotational basis)... And that's "per head"... But I suppose you could double up on the young uns for awhile...
Anyway - I'm not sure if Lefty has that much space in his Gotham flat for Elsie... He's probably more the "Milk Bar" (from Clockwork Orange type anyway)... :-)
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=EEM
ReplyDeletebreakout N. of ~48, no?
now 46.59
ibid.
We have had so many H&S set-ups. They all failed. There is a man outside with a massive fire-hose full of liquidity. It's too early to dry out the basement. Now, generally I am as bearish as the next bear, but if crude falls $5-10, they can gun this thing 5% northwards in a heartbeat.
ReplyDeleteBetter to use the bond market as a guide. JNK is still solid, and we have a fair amount of room under TLT before we get a retest. That's the right time to start shorting equities aggressively. Next week, Thursday about 11.45, after the 10y has been sold to the moon, or at least out to 3.65-3.75% area. Then FYB with fixed income and get back to shorting the emerging markups.
http://www.momofuku.com/restaurants/milk-bar/
ReplyDeletecv--
ReplyDeletere: COMMERCIALLY, the last thing you need is another mouth to feed...
totally, I noted, in the other thread, "Cost of Feed" was heard, often, muttered..
at these Price Levels, the traditional 'metrics' are Broken..
AAIP
Services ISM Prints Better Than Expected; Prices, Inventories At Multi-Year Highs http://is.gd/4cB00e
ReplyDeleteXRT not playing ball..
When is the next PPI...March 16th?
ReplyDeleteWill that be the day NOT to play small ball?
sour grapes.. lb, you would have been better off with Qs.. could have bot twice as much and more than dbled your % gain.. financials are holding the s&p back..
ReplyDelete"We have had so many H&S set-ups. They all failed."
ReplyDeletemorning gap up was nearly the exact minimum upside for the plain as day inverse H&S on the charts
MEH -- that pennant argues against a visit down to the 50 dma though, right?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.pehub.com/97477/debt-men-tell-no-lies-largest-lbos-remain-on-shaky-ground/
ReplyDeleteWhen is the next PPI...March 16th?
ReplyDeletePPI tends to impact front end and the belly, which we generally don't play. The long end will certainly have priced in a hefty +1.0% or more PPI by the time that baby arrives. The long end looks at the jobs numbers and it looks at auctions of 10s. You could actually use the PPI week to buy the 5y as it should be quite tasty there, and PPI will peak after this Libyan nonsense.
K
ReplyDeleteI tried to think of a clever rejoinder but the fact is you're right.
... and very beautiful too.
This is what I'm looking at. I find the respect for these fib lines (which I didn't draw) to be fascinating. Despite the fact that we're up big, things seem weak to me.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/Sr14EuZy6DTZ
J-
ReplyDeleteit's a good Q: , would be interesting to hear other input as to its A:
I've been under the impression that 'Pennants' could break 'either way', but, that 'moves' will, surely, come (one way, or the other) ..
though, note, that may be, totally, erroneous..
AAIP
AJELive AJELive
ReplyDeleteby jsphctrl
France rejects Venezuelan president offer to mediate in #Libya and dismissed talk of any solution that would allow Gaddafi to stay in power.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FVX:IND
ReplyDeleteThe 5y might have an encounter with the 2.4-2.6% zone ahead. We would probably buy that, and dump some junk at the same time.
Oh, this makes sense: zerohedge,
ReplyDeleteLumber limit up
Karen -- must be all the new houses we're going to build.
ReplyDeleteEEM capable of a run at 47. Don't rush the rear entry...
ReplyDeleteJenn, well we gotta start building now, right? i think Buffett said inventories would be exhausted by next year..
ReplyDeleteThat should have been re-entry.
ReplyDeletethe world is crazy, absolutely crazy. Nicholas Kristof -
ReplyDeleteThuggish government in Ivory Coast opens fire on women protesting peacefully, kills five: http://bit.ly/hPSYI6
Buffett said inventories would be exhausted by next year..
ReplyDeleteHe did say that. Remarkably stupid unless he knows some policy moves in DC will initiate a fire sale this summer.
Try protesting outside our offices and see how long you last.
ReplyDeletelook at europe....
ReplyDeleteEurope still looking at Brent $115.
ReplyDeleteProbably a good day to sell European bank stocks.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Some-retailers-sales-beat-but-rb-2250696364.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
ReplyDeleteRetailers' sales rise, but gas prices threaten
"But retailers should brace for challenges, he added.
"It will be difficult for retailers," Jelinek said, noting that the chains in March will face the double whammy of higher prices for clothing and gasoline that will probably prompt shoppers to cut back.
Retailers have had time to prepare for higher cotton prices, but gas prices have emerged as a more immediate threat.
Higher fuel prices will lead shoppers to consolidate trips, Jelinek said, meaning fewer impulse purchases, especially by lower-income shoppers.
"When you're pumping in $50 to $75 to fill up your car, or more depending on what you drive, it's a major hit for a lot of consumers," said Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins. "We're rapidly approaching that point."
...nattering nabobs of negativism...
The last dollar bull...? This is basically the Leftback Line, also the Gundlach scenario, and from a major fixed income player.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/blackrock-s-fink-says-he-s-a-big-buyer-of-dollars-that-gross-says-avoid.html
4% 10y is a lot of people's line in the sand, another reason why we think that we may not get there. Everyone will start piling in early.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.hbr.org/haque/2011/02/we_all_work_at_enron_now.html
ReplyDeleteexcellent article, lb.. i'll tell ya one thing.. $tnx and $spx are lashed together.. so the Bernank has another problem aside from crude oil..
ReplyDeleteFrom Yahoo finance:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rareearthexporters.com/investors.html?utm_source=Yahoo&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=rare_earth
Little guy being sucked in... ROR.
$7.24 billion purchased during POMO. $21.66 billion submitted.
ReplyDelete$tnx usually peaks first. You know the pattern....
ReplyDeleteMBA: Delinquency rates on CMBS loans rise to 8.95% http://goo.gl/fb/vP9Ff
ReplyDeleteWhispers of problems at two large German banks.
ReplyDeleteGerman bund yield curve has flattened considerably.
Someone well placed smells something bad.
perhaps of interest to some:
ReplyDeleteFuture historians will long puzzle over how the self-immolation of a Tunisian street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, in protest over the confiscation of his fruit stand, managed to trigger popular uprisings across the Arab/Muslim world. We know the big causes — tyranny, rising food prices, youth unemployment and social media. But since being in Egypt, I’ve been putting together my own back-of-the-envelope guess list of what I’d call the “not-so-obvious forces” that fed this mass revolt. Here it is:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/opinion/02friedman.html?src=me&ref=general
USDJPY bucking the trend...
ReplyDeleteSam Zell: "My single biggest financial concern is the loss of the dollar as the reserve currency. I can't imagine anything more disastrous to our country," the chairman of the Tribune Company as well as Equity Group Investments said in a live interview.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/41887217
was looking at YCS at yesterday's close.. sure looked like a buy chart-wise..
ReplyDeletetoday EUO looks like THE BET.
ReplyDelete"Sovereign debt has been off the radar the last few days as the market has focused on rates. German short-term rates are soaring, dragging the PIIGS up with them. Greece brushed 15% in the 2-year maturity this morning…Not good…"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexlive.com/170903/all/this-cant-be-good
The last dollar bull...? This is basically the Leftback Line, also the Gundlach scenario, and from a major fixed income player.
ReplyDelete..seems about right to me too, but I think short term will prove interesting..and I do hope rates go up..
NFLX tanking...just broke thru 200 dma
ReplyDeleteuup at 22! lol
ReplyDeleteI'd still like to hear otto come out and complain about how high the euro is. Looking for any evidence of that....
ReplyDeleteInteresting:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/science/01conv.html?src=un&feedurl=http%3A%2F%2Fjson8.nytimes.com%2Fpages%2Fscience%2Findex.jsonp
Best time to short is after a squeeze....
ReplyDeletewhether you short EURUSD here depends on what is coming tomorrow in NFP. They can disappoint.... but next week's auctions will drive yields and the dollar higher I think.
Check out the weird tick on SPY a few bars back -- way down.
ReplyDeleteMy JNK is firm. He said, smiling...
ReplyDeleteNew Video: George Cavaligos Powerful Moves in Treasury Futures and Stock Indexes http://mrtopstep.com/?p=2704
ReplyDeleteAnother dollar bull, Rosie outlines the summer scenario:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/what-happens-if-there-no-qe3-david-rosenberg-responds
BTW: DougKass Douglas Kass
ReplyDeleteby BigHungryShark
i just reshorted
1 hour ago
Karen -- re: Kass, that explains the mini breakout we just had.
ReplyDeleteGood list of trades to fade
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/%E2%80%9C-%E2%80%9Cpopulation-bomb%E2%80%9D-echoes
Aggghhhh. Dougie... get LONG.....
ReplyDeletemy jaw is agape at the strenght in $indu.. 12400 by next monday.. UFB..
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-Reasons-Traditional-Asset-usnews-3675792707.html?x=0
ReplyDelete3 Reasons Traditional Asset Allocation Doesn't Work
"The best way to overcome this globalization issue is to look for non-correlated global investments. Using things like currencies, commodities, global real estate, and global bonds is a great start to significantly diversifying your portfolio."
...Cramer would blow a gasket...no bank stock, retailer, miner, oil, etc. Not 100% equities?
sacre bleu!
Big Payrolls Report Being Priced In
ReplyDeleteBy Jamie Coleman || March 3, 2011 at 16:51 GMT
The strong PMIs, jobless claims and ADP have traders pricing in a larger rise in payrolls. Estimates are ratcheting higher, from around 175/200,000 to 250/275,000…Rates are rising in the US (but not as fast as in Germany!) as a result.
We’ve seen this movie before and payrolls always end up playing the villain… I hope I’m wrong, but the market is setting itself up for disappointment, again.
US 10-year notes are up 9 bp to 3.56%.
only word of solace i can offer bears is that the market is exhibiting signs of hysteria that generally don't end well for bulls.
ReplyDeleteWe're back at levels that were sold only days ago...somehow I don't see that happening today.
ReplyDelete3 Reasons Traditional Asset Allocation Doesn't Work
ReplyDelete1. The BERNANK holding a fire hose.
2. TRICKY
3. VOLDEMORT
No free market, no diversification.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charles-ponzi-day-we-celebrate-another-all-time-record-food-stamp-usage
ReplyDeleteNo data next week, so unless we have Euro issues...
ReplyDeleteMore MOMO MELTUP, even if tomorrow is SELL THE NEWS.
If we hear a high-pitched squeal at the close, that could be Dougie Kass and his exploding cojones.
ReplyDeleteHi, Dougie.... I'm lurking.
ReplyDelete1330 still seems like a good resistance level for ES, can't get above 1328
ReplyDeleteIf we hear a high-pitched squeal at the close, that could be Dougie Kass and his exploding cojones.
ReplyDelete...ok, busy as I am, had to snort to keep from laughing out loud..
In that case, our day has been a success.
ReplyDeletehttp://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/a-conspiracy-with-a-silver-lining/?hp
ReplyDeleteBob -- I'm with you, thinking about a short here, except that I have to leave in 10 minutes and I'll be gone about 1 1/2 hours. I hate that.
ReplyDeleteIf yields keep jumping like this the 10yr will be at 4% before its auction next week.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYahoo! Finance (sorry, this is better link.)
ReplyDeleteIs the New York Fed Making a Big Mistake? http://yhoo.it/hZRngv
Government's Mortgage Bailout Under Attack http://www.cnbc.com/id/41889784
ReplyDeleteKeith McCullough
ReplyDeleteHedge Fund Industry running with its highest net leverage since October of 2007 (all time high for SP500)
good quote: But the markets’ drivers today won’t be in the front seat forever. Maybe, in the end, the dollar’s problems are less strategic, and more tactical, than many observers realize.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/03/03/even-now-dollar-bears-shouldnt-get-too-comfy/
you just know the dow wants to break 12260.. trying to catch the hot money naz..
ReplyDeleteis this market more insane than 2007, or what?!
ReplyDeleteHad to post this, couldn't link to it...
ReplyDeleteProfit surge bolsters Glencore ahead of IPO
Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Mar 3 09:56. Comment.
Glencore saw its net income surge nearly 40 per cent in 2010 on the back of higher commodities prices, helping the world’s largest trading house to bolster its valuation as it prepares to go public in London in the second quarter, More…
Glencore saw its net income surge nearly 40 per cent in 2010 on the back of higher commodities prices, helping the world’s largest trading house to bolster its valuation as it prepares to go public in London in the second quarter, the FT reports. The Switzerland-based trader said on Thursday that, excluding exceptional items, its net income rose to $3.79bn last year, up from $2.72bn in 2009, boosted by “strong metals prices” and “a significantly increased contribution” from its agricultural commodities unit. Oil trading was “subdued”, however. Glencore, led by South African chief executive Ivan Glasenberg, is in the process of a radical transformation, aiming for an initial public offering in the second quarter of the year that is likely to value the trading house at a minimum of $60bn. However, the group is keeping its options open and could decide to attempt a merger with Switzerland-based miner Xstrata, in which it owns a 34.4 per cent stake. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are advising Glencore on its options.
Thanks for that update, Bob. Ever so fascinating..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.glencore.com/documents/Financial_Highlights_2010.pdf
ReplyDeleteThis was the link I was looking for....
Very detailed reporting...2 whole pages.
housing bubbles in south africa and hong kong.. an interactive chart.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.economist.com/node/21009954?fsrc=scn/tw/te/dc/clicksandmortar
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41879879/ns/health-sexual_health/
ReplyDeleteVirginity's making a comeback, report says
...Easy,Lefty, put the gun down...
ROR.
ReplyDelete3.55% on the 10y, hardly making a run at 4%.
We need more virgins to feed the suction device, all is on schedule...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1194766,00.html#ixzz1FYyKOYQw
ReplyDeleteThe Bush Administration has been quick to stress Libya's comeback as a model that Iran and North Korea should now follow.
Brian, you run the PUMP.
ReplyDeleteWe run the suction device, you fool.
In depth analysis of tomorrow's data:
ReplyDeleteSTRONG NFP - stocks rally on THE ECONOMY
WEAK NFP - stocks rally on FED LIQUIDITY
So-So NFP - GOLDILOCKS ECONOMY. Party On.
As the market melts up steadily, do Karen's hemlines follow?
ReplyDelete(breathless with anticipation)
Closing in on Neely's SPY stop at 133.7.
ReplyDeletethanks Jennifer.. we are already too close for comfort.
ReplyDeleteif we reverse, i will subscribe. call me on that.
ReplyDeleteIts weird though...like its happening in slow motion. I would have expected a big "popped stops" sort of explosion, but it seems more like a drift up. Of course, I was at the grocery store, so what do I know.
ReplyDeleteThere are shorts here at 1329 and up at 1344.
ReplyDeleteWe are not among them.
All the conditions are ripe for a nasty squeeze.
If the 1329 shorts get burned here then you could put it on overnight.
Otherwise they will get done in the morning!
http://pragcap.com/revisiting-the-mystery-buyer
ReplyDeletebig "popped stops" sort of explosion
ReplyDeleteThat was me at the open...
Now I am doing him slowly...
ReplyDelete"The main takeaway is that there is a distinct trend in the market following these events. Last night I was emailing a friend in Asia who works at a big bank. With the S&P futures up just 5 points at 3AM EST (on no news) I told him – “this market is going to rip the heads off of shorts tomorrow. I guarantee it.” A few minutes later I wrote on Twitter: “I will be shocked if we are not up big tomorrow”. The action is transparent. When these buyers are in the overnight market the equity markets surge the next day and the action is always consistent. The market will stay pinned at its daily highs as if to be sitting on Atlas’s shoulders – just propped up perfectly and guaranteed to close at the highs of the day. I don’t know if this has to do with QE2 (there is no operational explanation for that) or what, but it is plain as day to anyone who takes the time to actually watch this unusual trading action. Someone bigger than the rest of us wants this market higher and they’re doing it while most of us sleep…Perhaps I am making something out of nothing, but it just doesn’t add up if you ask me."
ReplyDeleteYou can learn a lot, just by watching...
ReplyDeleteI love a good squeeze. Haven't had one of these for a while.
ReplyDeleteFirst you take the 1% immediately, then grind the next 1% out.
Then you allow a tiny dip at 3pm to suck in new shorts.
Finally you finish them with a firm upward thrust for another 1%.
Pure artistry.
sounds like TA* to me!
ReplyDeleteTepper Analysis
You know, I should have trade marked recoveryless recovery because it's popping up other articles.. i think i said it first on TBP 2 years ago? Well, just before Andy started his blog.
EEM 46.83
ReplyDeleteSome pain being felt out there.
Agreed.
ReplyDeleteEverything good should be trade-marked.
Leftback Bottom™
Cold Steel™
John E Retail™
Brian the Broker™
Lord Blankfiend™
You forgot Karen's Top.
ReplyDeletemy top was a total joke.. lol.. only off by over 300 pts and climbing..
ReplyDeleteWe NEVER for a moment, forget Karen's Top™.
ReplyDelete"Retailers have had time to prepare for higher cotton prices, but gas prices have emerged as a more immediate threat..."
ReplyDelete---
BLUE JEANS bitchez!
Or what happens when we close red.
ReplyDeleteAre ya feelin' me, Dougie?
ReplyDeleteActually the markets do add up, I guess I'll have to tell you the secret....
ReplyDelete...Ever read the story about The Shoemaker and the Elves? Remember when the Shoemaker went to sleep, how the elves got him ready for the next day?
....YEP!.....
One has to ask oneself, Douglas...
ReplyDeleteWhy would you ASSUME THE POSITION?
Why would you ANNOUNCE IT ON TWITTER?
One wonders whether you ENJOY THE STEEL?
I can't talk right now.
ReplyDeleteI-Man would be having a ball today.
ReplyDeleteKass got stopped out of shorts at the open.. re-shorted however.. probably stopped out again..
ReplyDeleteI would have been stopped out...I have to start fading myself...
ReplyDeleteDoug had a lot of bottoms in 2009. Then he called one on March 9th and got lucky. Of course, THE BOTTOM was March 6, at 666.79.
ReplyDeleteWe all know who made THE CALL, around 3.45pm.
Of course Dougie and Barry got famous.... Ritzy was very good on TV in those first few days and weeks.
High beta bitchez!
ReplyDeleteFund managers who have been shorting this thing all quarter are behind the 8-ball...
Tops are much harder than bottoms to call, IMO.
ReplyDeletePERFORMANCE ANXIETY among the hooved throng.
ReplyDeleteCOLD STEEL anxiety, more like....
ReplyDeleteCan we dispense with the endless name changes for the sake of cheesy non-funny humor? It's as distracting and annoying and the constant third person crap.
ReplyDeleteSometimes the trading day drags a little, TA.
ReplyDeleteWe are sure that each of the personalities have their fans.
Unless the BLOG POLICE are going to ban humor....
Can we call you Truly or do you prefer annoying??
ReplyDeleteI'm always a fan of multiple personalities. Giles is my favorite though.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/saudi-arabia's-regime-will-fall-says-analyst-535988.html?tickers=EGPT,GULF,OIL,XLE,USO,%5EDJI,%5EGSPC
ReplyDeleteSaudi Arabia's Regime Will Fall, Says Analyst
...I think I might take the other side of that bet...with the money now spread throughout the populace, the term sheeple comes to mind...
LOVE CNBC THIS CLIP!!! If Ben Bernanke raises rates tomorrow crude oil would have an 8 in front of it.. (BTW, Kudlow has become logical?!)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hedgeye.com/unlocked_ideas/12165
I personally can't stand Giles but my sense of humour runs contrary to most..
ReplyDeleteNow, Bruce often has me LOL when Ieast expect it.. : )
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteYou need to turn that "8" on it's side to have any relevance to anything Bernanke might do...
pretend that capital I is an l.. cuz before i "post comment" they look the same on my screen : )
ReplyDeleteThat is because I am a suave older man...
ReplyDeleteLefty, as we all know, was raised by a pack of wild wolves near London...
...I saw an American Werewolf in London..scary territory...
ReplyDeleteJennifer, what do you think? will 133.70 be taken out today or tomorrow?? LOL.. I'm gonna be really really sad, too.
ReplyDeleteand the pub the two hikers entered in the dark of night...served nothing but Guiness!...talk about torture...
ReplyDeleteLoved that movie!
ReplyDeleteKaren -- unfortunately, I think you have accurately descripted the only two options. Since I'm dealing with options, I prefer to exit today and save as much remaining theta as possible.
DO NOT LOOK AT UPRO TODAY.
ReplyDelete(you'll be sorry!).....
Right. That's BLOODY WELL IT then. We are off. I doubt if we will bring the SUCTION DEVICE over for you lot any more.
ReplyDeleteWe will just leave you to the PUMPING and whatever it is that COLD STEEL does to people like Mr Shorty that can't be mentioned here.
Bruce, is UPRO a triple long?
ReplyDeleteYou know, I'd rather get the stop hit now during regular trading hours than have it gapped through in a big move up tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteJennifer
ReplyDeleteTheta really works against you after the first Friday of the month. Especially for otm options.
its sad when the world is pinning its hopes on Hugo Chavez.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.usdebtclock.org/
ReplyDelete...hmmmmmm...please note in the lower left corner...small business assets.
Notice anything unusual??
AR -- I know. I hardly have any March ones left, rolled out last week. And I only buy OTM in very small amts, more like lottery plays. I find that higher delta works best for daytrading.
ReplyDeleteits sad when the world is pinning its hopes on Hugo Chavez.
ReplyDeleteI send cheap heating oil for poor people. Is that so bad?
Yes, Jennifer. It is. And with this neverending bull market to look at its performance since the fall of 2009 is depressing.
ReplyDeleteYes, small business assets are getting smaller...
ReplyDeleteOk, Karen, enlighten...
Okay -- reversal brewing, or bear trap?
ReplyDeleteI guess I have my answer.
ReplyDeleteMS just sent out their aapl target $410.. but so they don't look bad, they mentioned S&P's call for $420..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/3/3/market-performance-on-job-report-fridays.html
ReplyDeleteBruce, at this point in time, i don't think i could enlighten us out of a paper bag! laughing..
ReplyDeleteBruce was looking for a comment on small assets.
ReplyDeleteObviously he went to the wrong place... LOL.
Truly Annoying has much more experience managing small assets than moi...
ReplyDeleteICE FUTURES U.S. LOWERS MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SUGAR FUTURES
ReplyDeleteThere's a lot of congestion around the 1313 level. I'm kindof thinking we may go back and revisit that even if we do go on to make new highs.
ReplyDelete