Yen (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 1.23200
rev= 1.19030; mid= 1.21112
Unfortunately the earthquake and tsunami will cause the Yen to rise as the yen is brought back to Japan. This repatriation will help pay for the cost of rebuilding. Should also bring the US dollar lower.
Nikkei (weekly info)WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new low 10254.43
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 10254.43
rev= 10842.80; mid= 10548.62
Nikkei was already showing weakness before Mother Nature made herself known. How many companies on the index have been affected negatively by what has happened? Insurance companies yes, construction companies probably not so much.
Copper (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 4.596
rev= 4.176; mid= 4.386
Serious selling of copper last week with a solid close below SMA(13). After hour trading shows that copper is now below its weekly 3LB reversal price. The Nov 2010 low (3.635) should be the first level of support in case of a reversal.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-14/dollar-depressed-by-opec-slashing-treasury-holdings-9-as-oil-profits-rise.html
ReplyDeleteDollar Depressed by OPEC Slashing Treasury Holdings 9% as Oil Profits Rise
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-12/qaddafi-s-warplane-firepower-advantages-puts-libyan-rebels-on-defensive.html
ReplyDelete"Muammar Qaddafi’s forces pushed insurgents out of the oil port of Brega, the fourth rebel-held town to fall as the U.S. and its allies grapple with measures that would halt the Libyan leader’s eastward advance."
...Not to worry. I have heard that we are "tightening the noose"....presumably against Qaddafi?
We do have a new teleprompter with some wicked apps...
ReplyDeleteHey, An Income Trader Who has been Fixed and is Named Later:
ReplyDeleteWhere do interest rates go now? I for one would like you to pontificate today...
Bruce,
ReplyDelete"NATO" is going to let those 'rebels' swing, at least, until Tuesday..
after all that 'Promoting Democracy'-bilge we heard, re: Iraq, it's rather pathetic..
AAIP
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/rsi/globalrecovery110314.htm
ReplyDeleteAn Uneven Global Recovery - Lingering Effects of the Credit Crisis
...This is not Hussman, but Bill Hester. It is an interesting read on the effects of debt, and how that has affected each country's recovery. Worth an eyeball...
Futures getting redder..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-13/milk-seen-plunging-14-as-costliest-cheese-in-quarter-century-curbs-demand.html
ReplyDeleteMilk Sliding 14% as Cows Boost Output, Cheese Jumps to 1984 High
...How did we get cows to increase milk output 14%? EASY. We told them we could get Chinese cows to make milk cheaper...and you know what happens to an unemployed cow...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-13/italy-s-banking-foundations-waver-as-capital-boost-unavoidable-.html
ReplyDeleteItaly’s Biggest Bank Investors Waver With Basel Capital Shortfall Looming
"Italy’s banking foundations, the biggest investors in the country’s lenders, may balk at providing more funds to the industry, an obstacle as banks seek to meet tougher capital requirements.
The foundations, including Fondazione Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Fondazione Cassamarca, spent at least 3 billion euros ($4.2 billion) to buy shares sold by Italian banks and had to forego dividends amid the financial crisis. As new rules are implemented, the lenders face a capital hole of as much as 17 billion euros, according to estimates by research institute Prometeia in Bologna. They may have to turn elsewhere for help.
“If the banks need capital they’ll have to make do,” said Dino De Poli, chairman of Fondazione Cassamarca, which owns 0.8 percent of Milan-based UniCredit SpA. Funds “are needed for the foundations and not for the banks, in which they’ve invested far too much already,” he said in a telephone interview."
..You can't say PIIGS, unless it's in Italian..
Has anyone been able to get into http://bankofamericasuck.com/03/13/ex-bank-of-ameica-employee-can-prove-mortgage-fraud-part-1 at all? I wanted to check the emails of BoA that indicated fraud.
ReplyDeleteBruce
ReplyDeleteFutures are trying to stay afloat but are swimming against the tide.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/operation-leaks-releases-initial-bofa-emails-indicating-premeditated-intent-deceive-governme
ReplyDelete==========================
foghorn
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/77870.html
ReplyDeleteFuel rods at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant's No. 2 reactor were fully exposed at one point after its cooling functions failed, the plant operator said Monday, indicating the critical situation of the reactor's core beginning to melt due to overheating.
The rods were exposed as a fire pump to pour seawater into the reactor to cool it down ran out of fuel, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said. The firm had reported the loss of cooling functions as an emergency to the government.
TEPCO said water levels later recovered to cover 30 centimeters in the lower parts of the fuel rods.
The seawater injection operation started at 4:34 p.m., but water levels in the No. 2 reactor have since fallen sharply with only one out of five fire pumps working. The other four were feared to have been damaged by a blast that occurred in the morning at the nearby No. 3 reactor.
The utility firm said a hydrogen explosion at the nearby No. 3 reactor that occurred Monday morning may have caused a glitch in the cooling system of the No. 2 reactor.
Similar cooling down efforts have been taken at the plant's No. 1 and No. 3 reactors and explosions occurred at both reactors in the process, blowing away the roofs and walls of the buildings that house the reactors.
==============================
Notice last paragraph.
#2 will blow by close of NYSE.
foghorn
How much does Germany export to Japan?
ReplyDeleteAny ideas? The DAX seems awfully red today,unless there is a bigger component of Germany product going to Japan than I am aware of..
BinT -- I think its the european exposure via reinsurance.
ReplyDeleteHere's the trendline I'm watching -- this is where the big bounce started on Friday (SPX hourly)
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/NxpvFjCWvza5
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nhk-world-tv
ReplyDeleteLive japan feed in English
foghorn
As you might imagine...I don't have a whole lot in common with the other moms in the 'hood. So, when the opportunity for interaction presents itself, my husband strongly encourages me to take advantage. Well, I'm stuck in a group of four ladies getting pedicures at 9 this morning, as soon as preschool drop off is finished. This was planned about 6 weeks ago, and there's no way I can backout without significant unpleasantness. The last time I did anything with this group was a brunch on a Friday at the end of January. When I turned around and discovered that CNBC was on mute on an overhead tv, saw that the dow was down 100 and Egypt was in revolt, I said my early goodbyes and ditched the brunch. So, I think I'm locked in to fancy toenails or I may never be invited to anything ever again (which would be okay, but not good for the kids, who still like to be invited to things.) Still trying to figure out how to set my stops. Best of luck to all this morning.
ReplyDeleteLefty said he'd like to be in a group of 4 ladies getting pedicures...
ReplyDeleteI bet he would... Strangely, I could hear Lefty on Friday saying "buy the earthquake, but sell the nuclear meltdown."
ReplyDeleteBruce,
ReplyDeletere: DAX , think MunichRe ..
as in re-insurance..
AAIP
Have fun with it Jen.
ReplyDeletePaint some Japanese Zero flags on your big toes.
foghorn
J-
ReplyDeletesometimes, one has to 'switch off the ticker-tape', and 'get their pedicure on'..
sounds like Today, is one of those times.. :)
ibid.
good morning..
ReplyDeletetoday will be something else.. between MENA and Japan.. expect the unexpected will rule the day..
no big move in treasuries.. yet.
ReplyDeletelooks like letting my SDS and QID ride over the weekend will work to my favor- hate to profit on tragedy- but . . .many times stock values are determined by random events-
ReplyDeletere Japan- morbid thoughts- but when the first day predictions were out that possibly 1000 were dead-
after seeing the pictures- I was thinking that that figure was woefully low
After listening to the Japanese nuke experts,it truly sounds like events are out of control.
ReplyDeleteDirect quote
"The cooling liquid must have leaked somewhere in the building."
WTF
IMO the death toll now is around 100K
To rise exponentially with the radiation level, henceforth.
foghorn
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/03/14/501364/main20042763.shtml?tag=stack
ReplyDeleteRadiation detected on U.S. warship near Japan
U.S. moves Seventh Fleet further to sea after contamination found on USS Ronald Reagan
Via: Reuters:
ReplyDeleteCommuters and residents of the Japanese capital faced confusion and uncertainty on Monday over the supply of food and energy after Friday’s devastating quake and tsunami which crippled a nuclear power plant.
Some store shelves were emptied and many train lines were shut down as Tokyo commuters returned to work after a weekend glued to horrific images of the extensive damage about 150 miles to the north.
In the largely residential Nerima district of Yokyo, staples like rice, bread and instant noodles were sold out. Lights were kept off on the produce shelves and meat refrigeration units to conserve electricity.
“About 40 to 50 people were lined up outside when we opened at 10. A day’s worth of food sold out in an hour. We had a second shipment delivered at midday and that sold out in an hour too,” said Toshiro Imai, a store manager in Tokyo.
“Part of the factory of one of our suppliers is damaged so stock is limited.”
http://cryptogon.com/?p=21111
Fewer ocean-going ships interested in docking in Japan??
ReplyDeleteThe BTD crowd continues to try and prevent the inevitable.
ReplyDeleteyou want to know why aapl is so strong?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.asymco.com/2011/03/13/the-billion-dollar-smart-cover/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_N-wNFSGyQ
ReplyDeleteVid of #3 going up with sound.
Awesome, DUDE.
foghorn
anybody looking at DNN- down 23%
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZ6lurStTvU&feature=related
ReplyDeleteThis is vid of #1 going up.
About :45 in is best shot.
Looks like #3 was much bigger.
foghorn
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=S&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
ReplyDeleteanyone liking Sprint Nextel ?
AAIP
Roubini on our G-Zero World:
ReplyDeleteWhat makes this a fundamentally unstable situation, in Roubini's, view is the power vacuum that has developed internationally since the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War's bipolar model of controlled competition.
As Roubini says of the world now: "On all the most important issues there is now disagreement and disarray."
Roubini describes a world in which there are a multitude of emerging powers—and one in which he says the United States can't simply impose its will unilaterally to create a stable framework for rational competition
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42068754
ahab,
ReplyDeletere: DNN, let me guess, 'Uranium' exposure?
here
http://finviz.com/
many of Today's 'Losers' are Uranium/Nuke-related enterprises..
AAIP
hoffer-
ReplyDeletedid you catch that t-mobile is looking to sell itself to Sprint/Nextel?
Denison Mines Corp. engages in the exploration, development, mining, and milling of uranium primarily in the United States and Canada. It also produces vanadium as a co-product from its mines located in Colorado and Utah; and recycles uranium-bearing waste materials, as well as gold. The company primarily holds interest in the White Mesa mill, an uranium mill with a vanadium co-product recovery circuit located in southeastern Utah near the Colorado Plateau District, the Henry Mountains Complex and the Arizona Strip; and the McClean Lake mill located in Saskatchewan. In addition, it holds interests in various development projects in Zambia and Mongolia. The company was formerly known as International Uranium Corporation. Denison Mines Corp. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DNN
ibid.
Observing a Bi-Polar World with Ray Dalio
ReplyDeletehttp://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203423404576186671576180048.html
ahab,
ReplyDeletethanks for the point-out, I saw a brief mention of it..
still in 'the rumour stage', yes?
have you seen any good articles on it?
ibid.
what's up all
ReplyDeleteAT, great charts yesterday, thanks for the effort, I think the big count on S&P looks really good.
"Helping to stabilize market conditions were a series of Bank of Japan injections of yen into the money market totaling a record 15 trillion yen. That would be equal to over $180 billion, which means Japan’s central bank has injected nearly a sum equal to the lion’s share of the Federal Reserve’s so-called QE2 to date–and the day isn’t over."
ReplyDeletefrom Cobra:
ReplyDeletehttp://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=806&mode=view
Dow at LOD.. POMO must be over.. LOL
ReplyDelete(that was total sarcasm, btw.)
alright- put a limit order in for 2000 shares of DNN- for shits and grins:-)!
ReplyDeletehoffer- I will try yo find that article on t-mobile/sprint
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/VIDEO-Japan-Second-Explosion-At-Fukushima-Nuclear-Plant-But-In-A-Different-Unit/Article/201103215951706
ReplyDeleteThe second vid, at 1:20, shows #1 + #3.
The top containment is gone from #1.
The top and bottom containment are, gone from #3.
Second explosion was much worse.
foghorn
bought 200 shares of SSO for 50.89 for fun as well
ReplyDeletehoffer-
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41972745
ahab, lot of interesting things going on in that DNN chart. good luck.
ReplyDeleteb22-
ReplyDeleteit's a limit order so hasn't even filled- looks like a decent chance for partial recovery-
we'll see- only 2000 shares- so not heavy exposure-
doing it just for a bit of fun and excitement
is there a japanese stock ETF?
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DNN&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
ReplyDeletelooks like it pulled back to the 200sma..
might see a bounce from there, after the nervous nillies get their undies unwound..
~~
thanks for the link, ahab..y GL on DNN~
ibid.
"Fear of the market is the beginning of wisdom."
ReplyDelete-Gann
my SSO not doing much . . .but sold my QID and SDS earlier so playing w/ the houses money:-)!
ReplyDeletethis is the driver for T-Mobile..
ReplyDelete"...Deutsche Telekom Chief Financial Officer Timotheus Hoettges said in an email that the company is open to all options in the United States, where it has said it will need more wireless spectrum to support future data services..."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41972745
and, the major stumbling block..
"...But such a deal would be very difficult as Sprint and T-Mobile USA use incompatible network technologies and Sprint depends on the spectrum of another venture, Clearwire Corp , for its high-speed wireless offerings. Sprint is a 54 percent owner of Clearwire, which has also been in talks with T-Mobile USA over a potential spectrum deal. Sprint and T-Mobile USA are expected to eventually move to a similar technology but Nomura analyst Michael McCormack said this is likely "many years from fruition." "One of the most important impediments to consummating a deal between Sprint and T-Mobile USA remains the significant technological differences between the two companies," said McCormack...."
ibid.
hoffer-
ReplyDeleteI think the problem I see w/ t-mobile and Sprint (I think) is that they use different technology-
t-mobile is like ATT- and uses SIM cards- like Europe-
Sprint is different I believe
scratch my last post- LOL
ReplyDeleteappears Hoffer has the definitive answer
ahab,
ReplyDeleteWhat is the Difference Between GSM and CDMA?
T-Mobile and at&t follow the GSM standard and Verizon and Sprint use the CDMA standard. Nextel uses a third standard developed by Motorola called iDEN. www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-difference-between-gsm-and-cdma.htm
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=t-mobile+GSM+Sprint+CDMA
DNN filled at $2.39-
ReplyDeletehopefully it is not all downhill from here
anon- thx
2.39 -0.90 (-27.36%) 11:17AM EDT
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DNN&ql=1
"is there a japanese stock ETF?"
ReplyDeleteThe iShares EWJ is prevalent, but I think people should be careful broadly buying Japanese equities for two reasons:
1. This is the most important point I will make. Many Japanese conglomerates are part of these keiretsu value-destroying cross-shareholding groups. This has been a disaster for a long time with respect to shareholder rights and, more generally, good corporate governance. Even though most indexes are free-float adjusted, broad market Japanese ETFs will be dominated by these names.
2. Valuations are bonkers because they don't have the same kind of accounting standards as U.S. GAAP. You have to use scaling factors for many common ratios (and even then, it is inaccurate). The only way to bring the financials in an American context is if they cross list on an American exchange and offer a U.S. GAAP reconciliation.
These two reasons drive me away from the Japanese equity market, even if it means missing a lot of value
matthew- thx
ReplyDeletejust checked- EWJ down 9% or so . . .
I am only looking at it as a very, very short term trade-
with the hope that it recovers some of the downside move based on the earthquake/tsunami
Reactor Core Meltdowns, 9.0 Quakes, Tsunamis, CME's (coronal mass ejections), saudi tanks rolling in Bahrain, civil war in libya, Ides of March (tomorrow), a QUAD witching opex week... March Madness...
ReplyDeleteI hope you're all having fun!
Only Harry Wanger himself would know how to "price this all in"...
I can't believe the BAC triangle hasn't broken yet..
ReplyDeleteLooks like the Swiss Franc, British Pound and Euro are the currency safe havens for today. DXY gets no love.
ReplyDeleteWe've retested the weekly 3LB reversal price. The only problem is that its too early in the week and it may not hold.
I also see the SPX trying to hold the line at the weekly S1 (1288.19).
ReplyDeletehere it is - my next big purchase- a fixie:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.lockedcog.com/uploads/2011/02/wpid-FxCam_12967853619671.jpg
looks sweet doesn't it?
P&F on GS is 144.. I can see 156, at least.
ReplyDeletebrutal headline:
ReplyDelete"JAPANESE 'OVERWHELMED' AS COFFINS
AND BODY BAGS RUN SHORT"- msnbc
TBT trend firmly down and looks at tho 37.50 is going to give way.. this is ever so wild.
ReplyDeleteMy pink toes can't help but notice that the trendline I pointed out has held so far today.
ReplyDeleteKudlow:
ReplyDelete" . . .the human toll here . . .looks to be much worse than the economic toll, and we can be grateful for that, and the human toll is a tragedy, we know that. But these markets are, all these markets, right - stocks, commodities, oil, gold - there is no major breakout or breakdown."
Kudlow- what a class act /snark/
Kudlow, still looking for those efficient markets I see.
ReplyDeleteHim and almost everyone else. Tell me,... who HASN'T read a very enlightened forecast of what Japanese investors will now do and what it means for markets?
good luck with that.....might suggest a look at local markets that went through the Tsunami a few years back, you might be surprised.
Kudlow = buffoon
ReplyDeletealso- UNG up 5%
play against nuclear power?
karen for you-
ReplyDeletenotice the beers at the top of this web site:
http://www.buyafixie.com/category/reviews/
so uncool- it's cool again-
(in other words- the coolness comes to me- not the other way around)
"is there a japanese stock ETF?"
ReplyDeleteEWJ
Re: Japanese ETFs
ReplyDeleteLarge Cap-EWJ, ITF, & JPP
Small Cap- SCG, DFJ, & JSC
Hedged Equity- DXJ ( avoids risk of movement in Yen/ Dollar)
Yen Plays- JYN, JYF and FXY
Japanese Bonds- BWX ( but only 23% of total fund)
ahab,
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_39/b4196062862199.htm
good art., from last year, on PBR..
AAIP
McBen,
ReplyDeleteto your point, thought it ~funny, that the Cauk Box Clowns, on CNBS were surprised the LVMH, Burberries, Hermes, et al. Sold Off today,..
ibid.
2.49 -0.80 (-24.32%) 12:22PM EDT
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DNN&ql=1
nice~
hoffer-
ReplyDeleteI had no idea Pabst was on a resurgence- but I can find it in a lot more places than I used to- they now sell 6 pack tall boys for $4.59 at the gas station by my house-
and its better (and way cheaper) than all the mass produced swill (IMO)-
I should have had a clue though- my son came back from visiting friends at a college in Richmond-
and he said all the hipsters? drink PBR- because it's ironic-
whatever that means
ahab.. i'm pretty sure they drink it cuz it's cheap! lol..
ReplyDeletewhoa...check out NYX. Back in an hour.
ReplyDeletek-,
ReplyDeleteno, ahab is right, the 'hipsters' think it 'ironic'..
ahab,
PBR is def. better that Bud/Miller/Coors, the so-called "Premium" Beers..
ibid.
Karen-
ReplyDeletethat too I'm sure- but- it seems to have caught on with the "avante garde" crowd- retro appeal I guess
I think this was the turning point:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbxGgCY9PKw
LOL- leave it to Dennis Hopper
@Jennifer:
ReplyDeleteRe: BWX
Please take note that 45 percent of those bonds are euro denominated, a massive chunk (just eyeballing) in Italian bonds.
maybe he meant iconic not ironic.. lol.
ReplyDeletePBR tastes like shit, and everyone still drinks it out here because they think they look cool drinking it.
ReplyDeletePortland has got to be the number one PBR market in the country.
Re: PBR
ReplyDeleteYes, it is definitely a hipster beer. I used to live in Portland, OR--land of hipsters. When they weren't exerting tremendous effort to appear counter-culture, they were drinking PBR.
I was in one of the dives downtown one weekend (probably Marathon) and some hipster (with one pant leg rolled up for some reason) bragged to me about how Portland is top PBR consuming city.
I am pretty sure that he made that up, on the spot.
Anyhow, I generally don't like Pilsners. I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I prefer:
1. Red Stripe
2. Becks
I'll drink a budweiser or bud light... shit, a Natty Light... maybe even a Busch, any day of the week over pabst.
ReplyDeleteLOL I-man. You beat me to the comment about Portlanders drinking a ton of the stuff.
ReplyDeleteLMAO, Matthew...
ReplyDeleteSeriously!
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/14/japan-earthquake-does-another-nick-leeson-lurk/
ReplyDelete"Still, we can’t help but wonder whether somewhere there’s another Nick Leeson watching risky bets going awry thanks in part to the unexpected natural disaster."
I-Bro,
ReplyDeleteyou would know?
never would have guessed..
"Tails", for you, it must be :)
AAIP
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Coin+Toss+odds
@ Old Pep
ReplyDeleteThe only coin toss I got going today is...
Jalapeno bagel, heads
Garlic bagel, tails.
Japan can be tricky at the best of times. Dividend yields are low, so you make little money in a flat market. Then there is the currency risk, which you can hedge, of course.
ReplyDeleteA lot of equity guys got in Japan in November. That was a good time, if you were out before last week. Valuations are among the best in the world in Japan and New Zealand, both trading near book.
We are interested but watching. BTW we do not believe there will be a nuclear catastrophe, and will post on this topic later. First off, we will pontificate about bonds for Bruce.
well I-Man-
ReplyDeleteI've been drinking it for years . . .as I said the cool came to me-
I didn't search out the cool
down in NC- down at Smacnalley's in Ocracoke- used to be able to slide up to the bar and get an ice cold Pabst for a $1-
now that's livin' large in my book
euro strength is perplexing and interesting..
ReplyDeletea result of commodity currencies being down, but no love for the dollar.
And pretty sure I have dranken/drunken/drinked every domestic can of suds we have in this land...
ReplyDeleteHaving a AB brewery in your hometown when you were a lad helped out with that.
If we're ranking obscure regional schwill, that still maintains any semblance of its original taste, pre-late 80s early 90s conglomeration:
1. Rainier
2. Hamms
3. Olympia
Oly used to be the top dog out here... but when they stopped brewing it in Tumwater, they lost "The Water."
2 Cents.
I always seem to have a 30pack of Bud Light in my garage, its my drinkable beer. But I like the rice beers.
Pabst is way too corny and sickly sweet for my hop addicted palette.
At the aforementioned "hipster dives" like Matt mentioned above, you can still get tall boys of PBR, Hamms, Rainier, etc for $1.
ReplyDeleteMakes for a cheap hangover if you're drinking out.
Now about that bagel...
ReplyDelete@ AFIA:
ReplyDeleteI also think the odds of a nuclear catastrophe are very low. My understanding is that the many levels of containment make the most likely scenario a permanently ruined reactor. It is very unlikely that the public will be exposed to dangerous levels of radiation.
I suspect that almost all death deaths will be the unfortunate result of natural disaster.
. . .and don't get me wrong- I'll drink a craft brew-
ReplyDeletebut really- how many of those you want to swill?
RE Red Stripe- yeah- great if I'm in Jamaica- used to love drinking San Miguel in the Philippines- and Tiger in Singapore- and Tsingtao in China-
but that shit is worse than PBR- even worse than Budweiser-
if you want to waste your money on expensive beer- knock yourself out
you might want to read these notes on the weekly QQQQ candle:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zenpenny.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/QQQQ-3-13-11.gif
In the 10 year yield, there is one trading range between 3.30% and 3.50% and another between 3.50% and 3.73%. We are now near the low point of the former range at 3.34%. We will be sellers of AGG today, has strong resistance at 106.
ReplyDeleteIn the long bond, the range is 4.50 to 4.78%. We are close to the low point of the range at 4.53% and have opened a short position to hedge. TLT has resistance at 92.
We have owned LQD for some time. It has resistance at 109. We will be sellers of some LQD today.
The bottom line for us in general today is there are quite a lot of TEOTWAWKI trades on, and we don't believe there will be a meltdown in Japan, so we are looking to fade the apocalypse.
Mr Top Step
ReplyDelete$ES_F #futures REALLY QUIET HERE , down hard but most of the volumes are coming from the index spreads ; more melt downs to come?
I-man at 12:56-
ReplyDeleteOly was cheap as shit when I lived in California- and I am certain Hamms is cheap as well (can't find either of those in Virginia)
so . . .you don't turn your nose up a cheap beers-
that's a plus in my book
Matthew
ReplyDeleteThe reactor designs are very different from Chernobyl and there is every chance that a major meltdown can be averted, although these reactors are finished.
Selling of Japan is probably overdone although we bet it will continue for another day at least as there are certainly market players (insurance companies) who need liquidity.
We have been nibbling on divvys over the last few days. We like FTR in the US and PHI in Asia as 10% divvy plays that have been on sale. We also have our beloved NZT, although it has been albatross-like of late.
A breakdown below SPX 1275 would be important to us, until then it is party on or range trade in the US.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteThe BoJ has been selling yen to counteract the effects of asset liquidation, hence maybe today's EUR strength.
Thanks for the charts on JNK recently, we are still long but feeling a great deal less comfortable about the position.
anyone considering a stab at EWJ?
ReplyDeleteand DNN appears to be on the move
ReplyDelete"...The Jos. Schlitz Brewing Company was among the first of the major brewers to use bigger cans, introducing the a half-quart can in 1956 and, four years later, putting the well-known original "Tall Boy" on the market, a 24-ounce can.
ReplyDeleteOther brands in the Schlitz family, including Old Milwaukee and Schlitz Malt Liquor, were given big cans of their own and all of them continued into the early 1980s, after Schlitz was acquired by Detroit-based Stroh Brewing Company.
Throughout its history, the Schlitz "Tall Boy" can maintained a simple shape -- Schlitz was also the first to use the "cone top" -- and the familiar white color with the Schlitz label -- a motif maintained in the modern incarnation.
"I think our drinkers will get a kick out of the can graphics that even include the original Tall Boy script," Wortham says.
Schlitz was actually ahead of its time when it came to using aluminum cans, becoming in 1961 the first major American brewer to manufacture its own cans.
"The company was really an innovator," says Leonard Jurgensen, a noted historian on the Schlitz Brewing Company. "Eventually, the other big brewers like Miller and Anheuser-Busch followed suit."..."
http://onmilwaukee.com/bars/articles/schlitztallboys.html
personally, I've always thought that 'Tall Boys' were 24 fl. oz. ..
AAIP
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Jalapeno+Bagel
ReplyDeletefunny results..
Pablo's dilemma..
~~
I-Bro,
know, I'm just teasin' ya'..
AAIP
2.52 -0.77 (-23.40%) 1:17PM EDT
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DNN&ql=1
ahab,
no EWJ, for me..
tho., that DNN, pulling back to its 200sma, looked good..
ibid.
24 oz cans you buy individually (or step up and buy a 40 for basically the same price)- the "tall boy" six packs are 16 oz cans-
ReplyDeletealso- they reintroduced the original formula Schlitz in Chicago and are rolling it our elsewhere- not around DC area yet
http://www.schlitzgusto.com/
check out the Cynthia Myers picture with her most compelling assets covered up (1968 playboy playmate- smokin'!!)
Thats weird, I always thought a tallboy was a 16oz can. 24 oz cans always seemed a bit excessive to me. You really have to work to get it down before the last third is warm.
ReplyDeleteUp in NE they called 16 oz'er's "Pounders".
The "warm" test, is the ultimate test for cheap american lagers/pilsners.
PBR doesnt pass the Warm Test for me. Thats all.
Neither do most of them, but I can handle a warm bud/bud lite.
A warm Busch makes me want to hurl, but ice cold, its fine.
My gramps practically survived off of the original "Schlitz" lager, the white cans with red lettering. (Not the malt liquor.)
Stroh's was one we used to drink a lot of at App St. Wasnt too bad I guess, better than Old Milwaukee.
Of course, Marky.
ReplyDelete:)
anyone considering a stab at EWJ?
ReplyDeleteNot today, but soon.
Right one queue:
ReplyDelete"Japan's Meltdown Has Congress Questioning Nuclear Energy"
Leave it to Congress to totally misinterpret this. Apparently, they don't realize that we already had a meltdown in this country and you could probably count the additional cancer deaths on one hand.
You can say goodbye to a reasonable energy policy in this country when these Congress-critters decide to slam down the iron fist (again) on the cleanest and most efficient way to generate electricity.
A warm Busch makes me want to hurl, but ice cold, its fine.
ReplyDeleteSo many things you could do with this statement......
Congress Tools all on the take from Big Oil. Plus you can count the physicists and engineers on one hand. Or no hands....
ReplyDeletePeople will eventually see that if a nuclear plant can survive earthquake 9.0 and tsunami, it is pretty safe. Coal-fired power plants kill people all the time in China...
Bagel chunks on the monitor after that 1:25...
ReplyDeletegs just made new low on day..
ReplyDeleteand BAC really really needs to break down..
ReplyDeleteC in nice downtrend.. and made a lower low today..
K
ReplyDeleteCareful with banks. Next week there will be an announcement about divvys. Whether they are approved or not, banks are likely to run up ahead of that announcement.
Lovely ankles, btw....
"but ice cold, its fine."
ReplyDeletenecrophilia?
leftback- do you have a certain entry point on EWJ or are you just expecting more shake out?
Thanks, Lefty.
ReplyDeleteBusy today...post later this pm...
hyg at lod.. and hyg:lqd no support till .822 ?
ReplyDeleteif so, spx will continue to fall.
banks pay dividends? what a joke.. how about they pay interest first.
ReplyDeleteplatinum down 1.72%
ReplyDeleteAhab
ReplyDeleteUsually with falling knives there is the big dump (today) and the knife catchers are out, then there are the peep who wake up in the morning and see it's down, so then they sell, and the catchers get bloody. Some time around the end of the week might be safe.
Right now everyone is selling or holding off b/c of the nuclear plants. By tomorrow we will know more, but Japan still faces a lot of problems.
Price-wise anything in the 9s is a bargain already in terms of price to book, and 8s would be fill yer boots time. Very very solid chart support for EWJ between 9.25 and 9.50. If we get there, LB will be pulling the trigger.
guess which other white metal should follow suit?
ReplyDeletebanks pay dividends? what a joke.. how about they pay interest first.
ReplyDeleteQuite, but it is being considered. I imagine this will be a ramp the rumor and dump the news, which ever way it comes out.
Greek bank borrowing from ECB rises http://www.forexlive.com/172991/all/greek-bank-borrowing-from-ecb-rises
ReplyDeletehoffer-
ReplyDeleteit appears you jumped into DNN with me- I gotta roll-
good luck with it- looks like it's popping up nicely-
all be good
karen- no doubt on the bank interest (before dividends)comment
jenny- thx for all the info Japan ETF's
re: Japan
ReplyDeletefrom a strictly chart perspective, buying here and you are fighting the trend, same with going long the S&P.
newsflash: the correction started weeks before the earthquake/tsunami.
http://shanebaiotto.com/images/logos_images/logo_full/pabst.gif
ReplyDeletec ya
there seem to be dip buyers everywhere
ReplyDeleteben, not in hyg.. and check gld on a 60 min chart...
ReplyDeletejust caught this:
ReplyDeletehttp://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=805&mode=view
notice the island reversal in the chart on the right.
it already did it's job as islands should completely erase the minor move that precedes them, however, they also frequently develop within larger patterns, in this case, the triangle that we broke down out of....
what's it matter?
gives evidence that this is still the C wave and that it's not over, bounce around 1267-1275 probably the best one worth trading for you ninja's.
new lod for gs..
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteI'm talking equity, seems to me people are still out buying the dips, SPY anyway, makes me think there would be some sort of "recognition point" before this correction is over and we head higher again.
VIX is coming in pretty quickly.
ReplyDeleteES vwap is about 1 point up from here...looking to go short there.
ReplyDeleteI suppose if that 2:04 is right we should see the VIX close above the 200 day today and generally remain above it this week.
ReplyDeleteyep. dip buyers everywhere:
ReplyDeletegtotoy
Long $GS 158.38 .50 stop here.
41 seconds ago
Natty Boh bitchez!
ReplyDeleteexcellent Kass but read it all!
ReplyDelete"The new normal is abnormal and is bound to haunt investors for some time to come"
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11043072/1/kass-a-contagion-of-black-swans.html
GS made yet another new low on day..
ReplyDeleteDouglas Kass
ReplyDeletebuying ge $$
Ben -- the vix is back below the 200 (by a penny.) I can see a downward channel forming on SPX hourly -- we're close to the bottom of the channel, its about 10 pts wide, so a trip back to 1299ish is still possible.
ReplyDeletewaterfall alert...
ReplyDeleteJennifer,
ReplyDeletejust would seem the 200 day on the VIX shuts the bears down, bears want to see a close above that level I would think.
decent short term trend line up here on the 1d S&P but bulls failed to close that gap this morning and I don't think they are strong enough though they are making an attempt again to break the 200 there as well.
have you tried to develop any kind of mechanical trading system using VWAP?
I'm working on something right now using a/d ratio and the absolute breadth index, putting $10k into an account and trying it out for a few months here, averaging holding period for each trade is about 3 days. We'll see how it goes.
Slow trading day in energy...
ReplyDeleteI Spy a small triangle on the Silver chart...sure does look like Silver wants to move up a little more....
yeah, I bought some SLV calls today AT, that chart looks nice for bulls imo.
ReplyDeleteandy.. oh, i do see that triangle now on the day.. perfect on the 60 min too. we are in the apex right now.. so we shall see! check.. the other metals vote for a down move, imo.. my slv charts look bearish, too.
ReplyDeletebet you are both wrong.. : )
ReplyDeletecheck the weekly slv, too.. anyway, we can practically hold our breaths because we'll know very soon.
scallops
ReplyDeletethat's what i see on the SLV chart
over and over again
wouldn't be surprised if another was carving out here
Ben -- I'm not sophisticated enough for that, thanks though!
ReplyDeleteMole at evil speculator has a number of automated trading programs, all for the ES, but I have no idea what's in them. It would take me a decade of nothing but computers and the market to be able to develop something like that myself. I'll just stick to toenails and trendlines.
LOL.. one minute I was winning, next minute you two are winning.
ReplyDeleteWill someone please teach these dip buyers a lesson once and for all.
ReplyDeleteJennifer,
ReplyDeletesome of the systems an individual trader could follow are far easier than you'd expect.
remember the dow theory algo I sent you? It's been working good.
or here's another simple one:
take a one day a/d ratio and buying the DOW when the ratio crosses above 1.018 and selling it short when the ratio declined below 1.018.
From March 1932 - August 2000 this would have turned $100 into $888,717,056 (assuming no commissions, slippage or dividends)
there are issues with this one here such as turnover b/c the average holding period is only just over 3 days, but it still works now, many of the old breadth trading techniques no longer work since 2000 but this one still does.
Same system from April 2000- Feb 2005 with an adjusted $1/share commission and ten cents per share for slippage was +56.1% versus buy and hold of -18.4% over the period.
if we stay in fairly low volatility that's a basic system someone should be able to use with some success. I'm still running the tests but I think with a VIX above 35 and the numbers change, you start to get whipsawed.
XLV not looking very healthy..
ReplyDeleteanyone dip buying GS isn't happy..
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteit looks just like its consolidating before moving up again on SLV.
I'd imagine we'll see something pretty ominous on that chart to indicate it's turned down. I don't see any topping patterns though.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/03/14/134531141/japan-moves-to-prevent-financial-panic
ReplyDelete@CV,
ReplyDeleteI was hoping PSU would upset OSU this weekend but they just aren't talented enough.
Pretty sure PSU plays temple in the first round.
I'm almost certain this is correct but the last time they made the dance was when I was a junior and the Crispin bros. played. they lost to temple in the sweet 16 that year I think.
time for a payback
Heels got spanked yesterday too.
Anyone watch the Fab Five show on ESPN?
I was one of the kids that wore black shoes and socks after those guys started doing it.
Thanks, Ben. I'll have to think about that some more. Problem for me is time...I'm pretty maxed out right now. I find that any time I add something new to the repetoire, performance suffers for a while. I'll print that out and take it with me on the cruise...I'm sure the frou-frous won't hinder my comprehension any :-)
ReplyDeletepatience
ReplyDeletegs sold down to 158.02 so far.. a least two points to go..
ReplyDeleteoh no worries there, frou frou's are a performance enhancer, that cold liquid makes you nice and alert
ReplyDeletethey also have a way of making the most complex things make perfect sense, at least so long as you keep using them, that is
Karen
ReplyDeleteDo you drink frou frous? Do you ever do anything crazy in the afternoons after the close of the trading day?
We bought the dip.
ReplyDeleteTLT getting more lift here, not good for bulls, it's been a few minutes ahead all day long.
ReplyDelete"We bought the dip."
ReplyDeletewhich one?
Every time we get to the brink...
ReplyDeleteJapan, New Zealand, Chile quakes not correlated, don't signal a change in tectonic activity, RMS says http://bit.ly/euhxT3
ReplyDelete(wait till the CA quake hits.. )
bulls just need to break 130.45 on SPY now....
ReplyDeleteOne of these times they aint gonna be able to slip out like that...
ReplyDeleteAnd the I will be waiting...
ReplyDeleteJenn.. Nasdaq Moves Closer To Hostile Bid For @NYSE_Euronext- Hostile Bid Could Come As Early As Tomorrow - $NYX
ReplyDeleteThanks, Karen. I'm not caught up on my reading today.
ReplyDeletetomorrow will be fun, rolling my eyes:
ReplyDelete8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag
8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil
9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows
10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index
2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision
Brenna Hardman
ReplyDelete$VIX hits new record! Nice job CBOE! $$ http://bit.ly/i6
but Karen, which one of those is items going to move the market?
ReplyDeletePPI on Wednesday will hit new heights.
ReplyDeleteBond hedges should be on !
Any day trading with you is fun, Mistress.
BTW, we may finish red, you know what that means.
ReplyDeleteDon't disappoint your fans, K...
well, even i will concede we get zig zag around FOMC.. not that it makes a difference in the end : )
ReplyDeleteI was one of the kids that wore black shoes and socks after those guys started doing it.
ReplyDeleteror- ur such a gangsta!
Boots on the ground are saying that Tokyo residents are starting to hit the road in mass numbers...
ReplyDeleteThis is getting weirder by the minute...
Well, I'm afraid its going to take sheer terror to shake the dip buyers out of their dream world...
ReplyDeleteI'm afraid to see what that looks like actually, but it will come.
shake the dip buyers out of their dream world...
ReplyDeleteDo androids/algos dream of electric sheep?
ror- ur such a gangsta!
ReplyDeleteoh.....this was with tight white shorts on, just thought the shoes and socks looked cool
ROR!
seriously though, every kid I knew was wearing baggy shorts and black shoes and socks b/c of those guys,
and I think it was King on the special that said it best:
"yeah, we didn't win the tournament, but do you know who won last year?, do you know who won it 10 years ago or 15? but I bet you remember the fab five from Michigan"
to which I said
tru dat!
wonder what Chris Webber though....no doubt he was watching it.
nobody can know the true extent of Japan right now, I hope for the best for them, but I read this weekend that Japan moved 8 feet as a result of this quake.....that's just nuts.
ReplyDeleteif there is anything to the super moon, I also don't think that's over yet, pretty sure it was to get closest on 3/19
he also said
ReplyDeletecan you name the starting 5 players on the North Carolina team?
I love the heels, but I didn't know all the starters on that team. Everybody that was into hoops knew the Michigan guys though. I know this crowd isn't into basketball much but I bet even people here remember the Fab Five.
the only teams around that time that might have been more popular was when grandmama played for UNLV.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
ReplyDeleteinteractive debt chart: http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock?page=2
Japancould Japan be the first sovereign default?
"Japancould Japan be the first sovereign default?"
ReplyDeleteOver the weekend while I read numerous claims about how "money would flow" into japanese equities I could only wonder if Kyle Bass was actually correct about "X-Day"
if so, that dude is just amazing smart, he'd have gotten subprime and then that
the odds of hitting both have to be some sort of statistical anomaly
I would love to work for a guy like that, you could become great just by following him around.
GDP = Gross Domestic Phraud
ReplyDeleteWe sold some LQD, bought some SPY, bought some TBT.
ReplyDeleteTEOTWAWKI hasn't arrived today and if it doesn't show up soon...
.....Mr Steel will be knocking.
For Lefty,
ReplyDeletesee what happens when you don't pony up the big bucks for Dalton?
http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2011/03/14/2011-03-14_manhattan_mom_sues_19kyr_preschool_for_damaging_4yearold_daughters_ivy_league_ch.html
Nice pic of Elliott House too...