DXY (weekly info)new low 77.28
trend=down
hlow= 77.28
rev= 78.13; mid= 77.71
Any questions?
Silver (weekly info)new high 32.92
trend=up
high= 32.92
rev= 29.33; mid= 31.13
It's a done deal. Silver shorts are in the frying pan. The pain of keeping prices down has turned into torture.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41844284
ReplyDeletePension Funds Strained, States Look at 401(k) Plans
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/28/pro-gadhafi-forces-fight-rebels-2-cities/
ReplyDeletePro-Qaddafi Forces Try to Retake Strategic City
"The convoy was met with a small pro-Qaddafi demonstration as it made its way out of Tripoli. "God, Qaddafi, Libya and that's it," chanted the demonstrators."
...Bernanke was furious!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-28/christie-spurs-u-s-governors-to-try-a-confrontational-statehouse-politics.html
ReplyDeleteChristie Spurs U.S. Governors to Adopt Confrontational Statehouse Politics
"He mixes it up with other governors, such as Maryland Democrat Martin O’Malley, who said Christie is “abusive toward public employees” and that he is a budget hypocrite for skipping the state’s $3 billion pension bill payment.
“If he doesn’t like my style then we don’t have to date,” Christie said in Washington. “It’s OK by me.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-28/inflation-above-9-shows-bankers-aren-t-gods-commentary-by-william-pesek.html
ReplyDeleteInflation Above 9% Shows Bankers Aren't Gods
...Gas here is up another dime yesterday. That is 28 cents in 2.5 weeks...
...'gonna leave a mark...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/germany-s-unemployment-shrinks-three-times-as-fast-as-economists-estimated.html
ReplyDeleteGerman unemployment plunged in February three times as fast as economists forecast, underlining the gulf between Europe’s biggest economy and the region’s peripheral countries.
Germany’s shrinking joblessness is helping Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government meet a constitutionally imposed deficit ceiling in 2015, a year earlier than planned.
...Yes fellow deficit spenders, Germany has a balanced budget amendment...so the government understands they eat only what they kill.....
germany has a balanced budget amendment because they have memories of the weimar days...
ReplyDeletethis country has no such memories... but we could probably teell you [from memory] about 3 dwts winners...
BTW... How do I know there will eventually be a QE3 to "monetize the debt"?
ReplyDeleteAnswer: Because they explicitly said that they would NOT monetize the debt...
TAIPEI -- The Taiwan High Prosecutors Office vowed yesterday to harshly crack down on anyone caught hoarding food staples as part of the government's efforts to stabilize food prices amid a string of price hikes following the Lunar New Year."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2011/02/18/291566/Prosecutors-Office.htm
---
Hear that people??? It's the Lunar Chinese New year why food prices are up!!!
NOT the fact that the Chinese have to keep up printing RMB to match the dollar peg...
CV
ReplyDeleteIsn't it the "Year of the Rat"?
cv--,
ReplyDeleteTaiwan trades on its own 'dollar', no?
not RMB ...
http://coinmill.com/TWD_calculator.html
AAIP
this poor kid can see zombie bears:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fe4EK4HSPkI
no worries kid, they are dying off:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDO12ycc0DA0
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteTrue dat... But I was making a logic leap to make a point...
@Amen
2011 = Year of the Cat (Rabbit)...
"Catfood bitchez!"
"Rabbit Pellets bitchez!" :-)
Next year (2012) = Year of Dragon...
ReplyDeleteSo "the Bernank" can "PET MY DRAGON!"
OT...
ReplyDeleteBut this is one of the "coolest" things ever...
http://www.thebagster.com/
Sigh...closed my LVS puts yesterday. Do I have bad timing or what? (They were profitable so I can't complain too much.)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NbN7yl2_fM&feature=player_embedded
ReplyDeletequick clip..
thought it funny..
AAIP
Pre-Market Real-Time: 44.73 1.91 (4.10%) 9:07AM EST
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=lvs
J-
why close those Puts?
AAIP
Mark,
ReplyDeletePanicky profit protection -- nothing more. Chart looks like crap.
J-
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=LVS
looks like it ~has fallen out of 'the Wedge'..
also, seems these:
45.00 LVS110319C00045000 2.64 0.00 N/A N/A 3,518 33,000
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=LVS+Options
at the min., will not get Paid..
but, re: "PPP", I hear ya, can be a b**** :)
AAIP
In similar news -
ReplyDeleteTea, Tea, Tea, makes you PPP
Dumping of the long bond in progress.
ReplyDelete"Dumping of the long bond in progress..."
ReplyDelete---
"Dumping of anything related to paper - in progress"
There... fixed it!
Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
ReplyDeleteEUR/USD 1.3831 +0.0022 +0.16%
USD/JPY 82.14 +0.37 +0.45%
GBP/USD 1.6286 +0.0020 +0.12%
5-Year Treasury 2.193 +0.056 +2.62%
10-Year Treasury 3.477 +0.063 +1.85%
30-Year Treasury 4.545 +0.055 +1.22%
http://finviz.com/
AAIP,
ReplyDeletenice vid
I liked the guy holding up the iPhone
"I have it all recorded"
classic
TLT looks worse than it really is
ReplyDeletedivvy today
First of da month:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PArF9k2SbQk
these guys have probably been trading the this pattern since the 90's, this song makes so much sense now.
good morning! I'm loving all these bank stories.. got litigation costs?
ReplyDeleteEEM took 46..
this could be a buying opp in TLT.. TBT just looks like a dead cat (sorry kitties.)
ReplyDeleteCrude Oil 97.85 +0.88 +0.91
ReplyDeleteNatural Gas 4.026 -0.011 -0.27
Corn 731.0 +9.0 +1.23
Soybeans 1364.75 -10.25 -0.75
30yr Bond 119.62500 -0.71875 -0.60
10yr Note 119.046875 +0.109375 +0.09
NY Gold 1421.2 +11.3 +0.80
NY Silver 34.360 +0.540 +1.60
http://www.ino.com/
S&P 500
1324.32
+4.44 +0.34%
nice numerals~
ibid.
note HYG and JNK..
ReplyDeleteif I didn't know better, I'd think a person could short this market.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI suppose I'd rather be long NLY than short JNK.
I realize it's stocks and bonds, but they aren't really that much different.
We read a scathing attack on NLY somewhere. I think it was written by a youngish person who was convinced NLY would be undone by rising rates. As you know that's not part of our macro playbook.
ReplyDeleteOTOH, we are about to see a Death of Treasuries week, between today and next week's auctions. Hold your fire until noon on TBT as a long end POMO is imminent. Once the B/D have off loaded you can FYB.
Ben, i didn't mean short JNK or HYG.. I meant the "market" in general..
ReplyDeleteFrom Rosenberg this morning on margin: It exploded 5% in January and margin debt is now up at a whopping 33% at an annual rate in the last three months.
ReplyDeleteBen
ReplyDeleteWhat do you and your E wave jedi sense make of this guy? His calls of late have been pretty good.
http://www.cap-man.com/
Maybe the Mu Fu crowd thought it was a leap year this year?
ReplyDeleteISM Manufacturing Report
ReplyDeletePrices 82.0 up from 81.5
Margin collapse continues.
Jennifer
ReplyDeleteOr banks getting slaughtered.
BKX -1.33%
Bob,
ReplyDeleteI'll take a look at that later tonight, at first glance there might be some issues with a few of the labels, the currencies are real hard to put a count on right now, that Euro count is real interesting, looks like he's got in a larger C wave up here, will have to go back and figure out if that makes sense.
I don't count the currencies much outside the dollar, I figured a while back the dollar makes the best waves because despite the fact that it's trash, it's still (imo) the most widely followed fiat in the world, and so I'd suspect it'd make the cleanest waves.
I'm sort of with AT on the dollar though, it's pretty much wearing me out.
@AFIA,
Didn't one of the Fed govs come out yesterday and say QE3 was coming?
Rates rising? Sure they are.....
Zero Bound....bitches.
Ben
ReplyDeleteHe just called for a 500 pt drop on Dow, which would still be bullish in his book.
Maybe the Mu Fu crowd thought it was a leap year this year?
ReplyDeleteNice one !! BEWARE THE POMO.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/ge-to-invest-500-million-in-china-r-d-2011-2012-caijing-says.html?cmpid=yhoo
ReplyDeletethat should do wonders for 'U.S.' "Jobs"..
good going Jiff~
ibid.
bob
ReplyDeleteStill modestly short EURUSD, followed your playbook on that.
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/china-us-treasuries-us-treasury-bonds/3/1/2011/id/33063
ReplyDeleteAnnual revisions released Monday show that China's holding of US Treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago.
Didn't one of the Fed govs come out yesterday and say QE3 was coming?
ReplyDeleteThose of us who are students of Japan know QE3 is coming.
Muni collapse, Fwash Cwash 2, QE3 (muni version).
Then Son of Stimulus that's the way we see it.
Annual revisions released Monday show that China's holding of US Treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteMore sh*t has been written about China diversifying out of USD and USTs than can be accommodated in a really gigantic septic system.
We just tested and bounced off 20ma on the 4h EUR. Forex live says options are ruling and will keep EUR in this general area for the time being.
ReplyDelete137 recent low and would probably take some off the table there...
Bob,
ReplyDeleteI would tend to agree, I don't believe this correction is over, at least not from a wave perspective.
I know we all have our ups and downs with Barry, but I would just note that he runs a big huge mainstream financial blog, the first of the month trade was noted on there this morning as it has been many many other places as well as get a lot of air on tv from various pundits.
guys, this has been around for decades, and chalking it up to 401k money isn't what is really happening there....
look for smart traders to start to punish retail on this now that they "know the strategy"
doesn't mean we close red today, but people are taking this first of the month thing as absolute fact, I mean, it's not like every single first of the month was bullish last year, pretty sure both June and July were down...
nothing always works
How can you not like the title of Faber's latest
ReplyDelete"There is nothing more dangerous than a powerful fool"
JBTFD.
ReplyDeleteShort EURUSD/short TLT is a good defence against a strong jobs number tomorrow and that's what a lot of people are looking at, rightly or wrongly.
ReplyDeleteDidn't one of the Fed govs come out yesterday and say QE3 was coming?
ReplyDeleteYeah... Here's HOW it was said...
"We will NOT monetize the debt" (Translation: QE3 is on the way!)... ror
"Those of us who are students of Japan know QE3 is coming."
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't disagree, it's still early enough to do QE3 but they should get it in place soon, if I'm Bernanke I want that in place and ready to go in the next month or two.
In Japan political pressures stopped central bankers there from monetizing all the debt, so I'm not so certain, if we use Japan as the model, that we will QE it all, time will tell I guess, but that figure is something like 1 quadrillion all-in.
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/3/1/is-strong-economic-data-the-reason-stocks-are-up-on-the-firs.html
ReplyDeleteso much for 'whiskey in a can' being 'big' in Japan..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.japantrends.com/umeshu-plum-liqueur-for-ladies-joins-non-alcohol-party/
ibid.
if I'm Bernanke I want that in place and ready to go in the next month or two.
ReplyDeleteProbably already in the plans but they will not announce it.
POMO will close soon. Got TBT?
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteAverage MF according to MorningStar has roughly 89% annual turnover, then funds on the tails have maybe only 25% or as high as 1,000%.
If the average fund nearly turns over 100% of the fund annually, it's likely then at the first of each month or toward the end of each month funds have perhaps 5-15% of their portfolio in to put to work. Most funds are long only and have mandates about holding too much cash, so the money is being put back into equity longs or sector rotating. I don't know the exact size of the MF industry right now but if the average fund has 5-15% to work with each month this might equate to several hundred billion dollars in 'cash on the sidelines' around each first of the month that will bid equities, so consider all the credit QE2, which was 600 billion over many months gets for "providing liquidity" and then consider the size of that MF repositioning, that seems a more logical explanation to me.
then of course you've got tons of hedge funds that front run this b/c they know it, etc. etc.
The new money in 401k's never made any sense at all to me.
1. If that's really what was happening how come fund flows for retail investors only showed positive equity flows in the last few months, it's not like retail was buying up tons of equity each first of the month. Most of the new money hasn't been going into stocks until recently.
2. Not everyone gets paid on the first of the month, most people are on semi-monthly or bi-weekly pays, so you'd expect if it was really about new money in 401k's then you'd see it occur at other times during the month.
just my general thoughts on this....
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-far-will-market-fall
ReplyDeleteWe sold a little NLY at a profit. Probably peaking here for now, as we look at a week or so of a relatively bond unfriendly trade. Will probably cash in some NZT at the close as well.
ReplyDeleteWe find ourselves disgustingly long...
ReplyDeleteCover, and pay the I, shorts...
so many of these POMO days print nearly the same exact chart
ReplyDeleteground hog day....
Diana Olick
ReplyDeleteLPS: Almost 30% of loans in foreclosure haven't made a payment in over 2 years, and nearly 50% haven't in a year and a half.
there is a "search for a culprit" to explain the quakes in Ark.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna go out on a limb here and say the culprit is
Earth
that said, think it was gristle that linked it, but wasnt' there another huge solar flare yesterday?
A nice debunking of the Voldy disinvestment theory:
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/china-holdings-of-us-treasuries-revised.html
In Japan political pressures stopped central bankers there from monetizing all the debt, so I'm not so certain, if we use Japan as the model, that we will QE it all, time will tell I guess, but that figure is something like 1 quadrillion all-in
ReplyDeleteThey'll keep trying to do it incrementally until China "caves" and de-pegs...
Instead, if China keeps holding on to the peg, the poor bastards will just have to pay more for food...
Meahwhile - the tipping point in the US ought to come when "food stamps" reaches 100,000,000... (and the "nut" no longer buys you 2,000 calories a day)...
Or thereabouts...
This can go on for a long time because many in America aren't "family units" huddled together under the same roof...
So there are yet a lot of SAVINGS that can be realized before anyone here really goes hungry...
But you need to tell granny to spend her social security check on something useful as soon as she gets it in the mail...
Closing the long, lets see what they got...
ReplyDeleteLooking to get back in about 30 pts lower.
Ben
ReplyDeleteThere is some weird stuff that is very correlated to quake activity. No scientist will go out on the limb and call it causality.
Examples- The dam built right on top of the fault in the last big china quake. It was in the process of being filled. The epicenter was only a few miles from it.
Quebec last year- The quake was after MASSIVE forest fires. How much weight was moved off the face of the earth there? There was smoke in Boston from it.
Loading and unloading weight.
I worked with a Geotechnical engineer who put these thoughts in my head. There is no way to prove causality, so no one will touch it. Too many other variables and no detailed 'baseline' measurements to use.
*666 – The Saudi regime falls, and 12 million barrels a day disappears from the market for the indefinite future. Unemployment hits 15%. Obama is toast. Your broker turns bearish and tells you to sell everything. Welcome to the Great Depression II. It starts raining frogs.
ReplyDelete---
ROR - frogs bitchez!
"Annual revisions released Monday show that China's holdings of US Treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago."
ReplyDeleteThis has been happening for at least a decade. It's basically the result of China buying the Ts through intermediaries and the score being updated by the annual survey.
Brad Setser juxtaposed a chart of the UK holdings and China holdings and you can see the UK holdings adjusted down massively at the same time China's holdings are adjusted up. This happens like clockwork.
Quebec last year- The quake was after MASSIVE forest fires. How much weight was moved off the face of the earth there? There was smoke in Boston from it.
ReplyDeleteLoading and unloading weight.
Well if that's the case... BRUCE IN TN is in the forefront as a culprit!...
Quit friggin tap dancing around Bruce! You're messing up the geology!
Bob,
ReplyDeletethat's pretty wild, I have no understanding of any of that stuff, really interesting to me though, wish I had more time to look into it.
per Bloomy, consensus NFP is +188k.
ReplyDeleteThe whisper number is +250.
ADP over +100 and we will see major bond dumpage.
Slim chance of that.
"Annual revisions released Monday show that China's holdings of US Treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago."
ReplyDeleteThis has been happening for at least a decade. It's basically the result of China buying the Ts through intermediaries and the score being updated by the annual survey.
Thus the "peg"
Thanks, Matt. The China dumping Treasuries nonsense has been loud recently and is completely absurd. The Chinese have watched Japan for years and they know where this one is headed.
ReplyDeleteBut the "self-sustaining recovery", "Death of Treasuries" and DGDF people are really in the ascendancy at the moment.
per Bloomy, consensus NFP is +188k.
ReplyDeleteThe whisper number is +250.
ADP over +100 and we will see major bond dumpage.
CV has a preview of the report...
"Unemployment as measured by U3 remains lofty, however, the birth-death rate as well as people no longer caring to even find work should off-set this figure in the coming months. We expect a 0% unemployment figure by 2015 according to our models...
We are figuring on starvation and suicides increasing the death rate part of ongoing models"
JAH is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble. Therefore we will not fear, though the earth should change, though mountains shake in the heart of the sea; though its waters roar and foam, though the mountains tremble with its tumult.
ReplyDeleteThere is a river whose streams make glad the city of God, the holy habitation of the Most High. JAH is in the midst of the city; it shall not be moved; JAH will help it when the morning dawns.
The nations are in uproar, the kingdoms totter; he utters his voice, the earth melts.
The Lord of Hosts is with us; the God of Jacob is our refuge.
Come, behold the works of JAH; see what desolations he has brought on the earth. He makes wars cease to the end of the earth; he breaks the bow, and shatters the spear; he burns the shields with fire.
"Be still and know that I am JAH! I am exalted among the nations, I am exalted in the earth."
Psalm 46
"But you need to tell granny to spend her social security check on something useful as soon as she gets it in the mail..."
ReplyDelete...of course, IF we manage to ignite inflation, and we keep measuring the core as the basis for SS...and assuming granny won't get squat for her cd's then Bernanke keeps the hammer down on those too old to resume meaningful work...catfood on T,T, and every other Saturday...
...swell guy.
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteI don't want to make the mistake of even calling it INFLATION anymore...
It's "harder to procure physical goods"...
- If there's GROWTH, goods will be more expensive because there will be more competition in the supply/demand equation
- If there's another depression, goods will be more scarce because there will be greater difficulty in bringing them to market (due to lack of ECONOMIC INCENTIVE [profits] in doing so
Either way
"No soup for you!" - Soup Nazi
Might try eating that tradestation with a little TABASCO sauce (for added flavor)...
ReplyDeleteI got that triangle feeling...
ReplyDeleteMight be a good time to take a break.
I-man -- my daughter read that very psalm last week at school...since I made her practice it aloud repeatedly it is stuck in my head now.
ReplyDeleteThis little dance between the 50 and 61.8% retrace on the SPX hourly chart is fascinating to me.
ReplyDeleteSellputs
ReplyDelete$GS insider trading galleon going around... stock dropping
Deuteronomy 24:16
ReplyDeleteThe fathers shall not be put to death for the children, nor shall the children be put to death for the fathers: every man shall be put to death for his own sin.
II Samuel 12:15-18
And Nathan departed unto his house. And the Lord struck the child that Uriah's wife bare unto David, and it was very sick.
David therefore besought God for the child; and David fasted and went in, and lay all night upon the earth.
Adn the elders of his house arose, and went to him, to raise him up from the earth: but he would not, neither did he eeat bread with them.
And it came to pass on the seventh day, that the child died.
...interesting, eh?
zerohedge
ReplyDeleteFormer Goldman Sachs Board Member Rajat Gupta Charged By SEC With Insider Trading http://is.gd/XnIUOw
Note that long bond can't catch a bid here in spite of these little drops in equities. Not bullish TLT in the short term.
ReplyDeleteNational Geographic
ReplyDeleteNew Death Ritual Found in Himalaya—27 De-fleshed Humans http://on.natgeo.com/hCUFyI
Rajat Gupta has been charged by the SEC with insider trading, related to the Galleon insider trading scheme. It seems, Gupta was also tipped off about Berkshire's $5 billion investment in Goldman.
ReplyDeleteSomeone has been singing. Let's hope this continues !
Raj who?
ReplyDeleteDon't know the fellow.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-10/fed-had-misgivings-about-friedman-s-goldman-stock-towns-says.html
ReplyDeleteI'll be impressed when he is in Jail.
@ Bruce
ReplyDelete"Consider the work of JAH; who can make straight what he has made crooked?"
"In the day of prosperity be joyful, and in the day of adversity consider, JAH has made the one as well as the other, so that mortals may not find out anything that will come after them."
Ecclesiastes 7:13-14
Deuteronomy 24:16
ReplyDeleteThe fathers shall not be put to death for the children, nor shall the children be put to death for the fathers: every man shall be put to death for his own sin.
---
Van Halen 19:84
"JUMP" (you f***ers)
Cv added that last part
That was awesome. Back later :-)
ReplyDelete@AFIA -- I thought you were in NZT for the yield? Ex-div was 2/22, which was the same day as the earthquake. I guess you bought it that day? You are clever....
ReplyDelete.Bernanke: Inflation rise will be modest, temporary
ReplyDelete11:42 am ET 03/01/2011 - MarketWatch Databased News
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke stuck his neck out on Tuesday and said the increase in inflation from the spike in oil prices will be modest and temporary.
"The most likely outcome is that the recent rise in commodity prices will lead to, at most, a temporary and relatively modest increase in U.S. consumer price inflation," Bernanke said in remarks to the Senate Banking Committee.
...Well, he sure got the housing thingy right...or the chance of recession...or SOMETHING!
I have a lot of NZT now, just trading around the core position.
ReplyDeleteWe feel a bit heavy this morning.... will probably unload into a rally.
We did buy the earthquake, and the days after.
It's what we do.
J. Crew shareholders approve $3B buyout deal
ReplyDelete2 minutes ago
(AP:NEW YORK) Shareholders of preppy clothing seller J.Crew Group Inc. have approved a $3 billion deal to be taken private by two investment firms.
The $43.50-per-share buyout by private-equity firms TPG Capital and Leonard Green & Partners is expected to close on or near next Monday. J. Crew CEO Millard (Mickey) Drexler, the former Gap Inc. chief credited with turning J. Crew around since coming aboard in 2003, will remain with the company.
Questions about how the deal was negotiated by Drexler had raised concerns the deal might not be approved. Proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services last week had recommended against the deal.
Hedge fund Mason Capital Management's managing member Michael Martino wrote to J. Crew's board on Feb. 11 and asked it to hold out for a higher offer. The firm has a 7.5 percent stake in J. Crew, which is based in New York. They said they would vote against the offer, according to an SEC filing.
J. Crew began an 85-day "go shop" period after it agreed in November to be bought by TPG and Leonard Green. It extended the period by a month after settling a shareholder lawsuit challenging the acquisition. Even after the extension, J. Crew said it was in talks with some interested parties but did not receive any firm alternative bids...
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68976777378000
ibid.
"The most likely outcome is that the recent rise in commodity prices will lead to, at most, a temporary and relatively modest increase in U.S. consumer price inflation," Bernanke said
ReplyDeleteTranslation: Even though the cost of a porterhouse at Wolfgang's in NYC just went from $100 to $150, our bonuses ought to cover it...
Not sure about the rest of you...
Hmmm...
ReplyDeleteIn this "sell off", silver and gold are at the HOD's... dollar flat...
NEW SAFETY Trade bitchez?
Bernanke at Humprey Hawkins...
ReplyDelete"The Fed has tools needed to withdraw stimulus"
ror
"The Fed has TOOLS..."
There - fixed it!
If oil sells for Euros right now, and the Euro strengthens in the coming months, will this add to the risk of inflation here?
ReplyDelete..hmmm?
Euro can't get stronger than 1.40. Not possible.
ReplyDeleteStop drinking the DGDF Kool-Aid.
My divvy mix is solid today. CIM has been on a tear.
$Yoku saved by SEC's new short-selling rules? http://bit.ly/hIGoSj
ReplyDeleteWelcome weekly 3LB mid. Glad you could make it.
ReplyDeleteLOL.
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_weekend/20110225/ts_yblog_weekend/i-kissed-a-bear-and-i-liked-it;_ylt=Av93l1UYGeSAKevRVQn09eNbbBAF;_ylu=X3oDMTE2Z2NndW9xBHBvcwM5BHNlYwN5bl9mZWF0dXJlZARzbGsDcmFxdW9odXJ0aWtp
"DGDF Kool-Aid"
ReplyDeleteIs that anything similar to?...
"I can't be out of money... See, right here, I still have a few checks in the checkbook"
AFIA2BNL
ReplyDeleteThat's what was said about the Fed monetizing debt also.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CIM
ReplyDelete~4.30
CIM-Chart looked, and looks, waay better than NLY..
AAIP
CIM in sync with $DJR.. both down today.. NLY marches to it's own drummer.. but looking VERY H&S-ie to me so we shall see if a buying op comes up..
ReplyDeleteScotty: Capt'n I can't hold her together for much longer.
ReplyDeleteKirk: Keep giving her all we got. I know you can do this Scotty.
Scotty: We've need more dilithium crystals or she's gonna blow!
The engines cannae tek it, Cap'n'
ReplyDeleteNice...
On Wall Street, they use dilithium crystals AS blow...
ReplyDeleteJust ask the Ukranian hookers...
Question for Ra:
ReplyDeleteYEOMAN JANICE RAND or KAREN?
Toughie but K gets my vote.
I myself don't believe the DGDF tripe. Just today we are up against the Uzbecki Kevlari..
ReplyDeleteI went where no man has gone before...
ReplyDeleteMore or less.
DGDF sure, until the margin clerk comes calling, the debt collector knocks on the door and the local loan shark sends the boys round.
ReplyDeleteNo payment in Uzbeki goat droppings accepted.
Gold watch, maybe.
Speaking of 3LB reversals...
ReplyDeleteDid you see the power move by emerging market sovereigns yesterday? Sometimes a line on a chart makes you look twice.
I wonder if the momentum acolytes will be pushing that to a short term trend.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-28/vw-pushes-peugeot-into-european-price-war-as-market-contracts.html
ReplyDeleteVW Pushes Peugeot Into Price War as Europe Market Contracts
"Volkswagen is “lowering prices from a position of strength,” said Max Warburton, a London-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. “Pricing took a hammering in the recession and apparently got worse in the fourth quarter, despite the tentative economic recovery.”
The European auto market is set to shrink for the fourth consecutive year in 2011 following the end of government incentives that boosted sales during the recession. Last year, Renault sold 63 percent of its cars in Europe, compared with 61 percent for Peugeot and Fiat’s 46 percent."
Welcome to my world, actually not my world, but the world I live among, between the cracks in the streets paved with gold:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/elite-manhattan-school-defies-old-prep-cartel-commentary-by-amity-shlaes.html
That's where TARP and POMO go. We really need another Bonfire of The Vanities, Part Deux. This island is rancid with corruption and greed, awash with narcissism and vanity.
A red first day of the month? Huh.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/05-correlation-oil-stocks-indicative-market-top
ReplyDeleteI have talked about this often, about how we will see a replay of the 1960s which was really a generational war, only this time the Boomers will be the establishment. The point here about Egypt's revolt being entirely secular, and being a revolution against the gerontocracy, this is one we have made here repeatedly. People in the US don't see this yet but they will.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/connecting-the-dots-the-coming-war-between-generations/
A red first day of the month? Huh.
ReplyDeleteNot over yet.
Not over yet.
ReplyDeleteneither is the correction
Chinese corruption. Who knew?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12605826
CV
ReplyDeleteYou're right. The dollar is not the safe haven it used to be.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/elite-manhattan-school-defies-old-prep-cartel-commentary-by-amity-shlaes.html
ReplyDeleteHoward Buffett Interview on Berkshire, Food Inflation
...somebody in this family needs to take a PE class...How can the wealthiest American family wind up looking like poster children for diabetes, knee replacements, hypertension...
CV, I deal with this in some fashion every day...I just don't get it. How can you be smart enough to be a billionaire and wind up like these men?
EEM bearish engulfing of a doji day? Ruh roh.
ReplyDeleteBruce
ReplyDeleteSee what happens when you don't have to chase it?
I'd be willing to say the correction is over...
ReplyDeleteBut if I'm wrong, I dont care.
:P
SPX keep trying to find support at 1% down (1313.94). The first was 1320.58 (or 0.5% down). That failed. There was just a 3rd test of 1%. Let's see if it holds. If not then hello 1307.31 (-1.5%).
ReplyDeleten/m too late
ReplyDeleteAmen:
ReplyDeleteYes, I guess you are right about that...and over the last few years we've heard, including fellow miners, that obesity is a "disease". Er, not in the 1800's and 1900's..it is just a result of those who no longer had to say, plow for a living, just becoming part of the furniture...
I will say with confidence that if you do believe the correction is completed, and you want to get long for a swing trade, this is probably right about where you want to get in...
ReplyDeleteI dont have any fib's up, but it sure looks like a 50% retrace of the move off the low, right here. (On YM anyway)
AFIA -- haven't read your Manhattan link yet, but I have childhood friends whose kids go to the Dalton school. Kindergarten is more than $25K/yr. Higher years are in the neighborhood of 40k I believe.
ReplyDeleteWhile out and about, I heard that the noon business program (radio) was planning on discussing the "up on the first day of the month" phenomenon. Sounds like "crude Thursdays" to me!
ReplyDelete@Bruce (1:29)
ReplyDeleteI said last week... I probably burned more calories prepping the soil for the spring planting than I'll EAT from what it ends up producing in those sq. meters...
@I-Man (1:30)
My instincts tell me you are correct there...
@AFIA
"No payment in Uzbeki goat droppings accepted"...
OMG - I'm screwed then!
Sounds like "crude Thursdays" to me...
ReplyDelete---
And then one day I was shootin' at some food & up thru the ground came a bubblin' crude...
Sing it! I know you know the melody...
If the market wasnt such a pro at looking like its doing one thing, and actually setting up another, then this would all be a LOT easier...
ReplyDeleteIt knows what we watch... and what we look for...
We are just f*cking with you, and we will gun it tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI am still lurking, remember.
ReplyDeleteMe too.
ReplyDeleteLook at the front end !!!
ReplyDelete2y at 0.66% is a YOURS... unless they know something.
Jennifer,
ReplyDeleteDalton is around the corner from my hovel. The mommys (skillfully avoids use of distasteful epithet) gather at the bakery on the corner for coffee and cake.
Rest well my sheep... It's all going according to plan...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ben-Bernankes-plan-worked-apf-145188226.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
My hovel was at 34th & Park, not far from all the good Indian eats on Lex in the low 30s. I miss Dumpling King -- asian guys don't deliver dumplings to your door in less than 10 min 24 hrs a day in the Chicago 'burbs.
ReplyDeleteBut if we keep seeing this, then we could be in for a bit more than expected...
ReplyDeleteLook at $gaso. That's some PPI and CPI right there, Bruce. Yer dern tootin'.. looking at today's action, how can you not sell bonds?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/von%20havenstein/AAA%20Gas.jpg
If this keeps up we would probably have a punt with SPY for a few days, and unload some AGG. This is for a trade, you understand. Between ADP/claims/NFP there is ample opportunity for F/I whackage.
One things for certain, given the slugfest slop we've seen over the last two hours, someone is destined for a hurtin...
ReplyDeleteWell, I 'splained some of my theories the other day, and too much gnashing of teeth here to suit me.
ReplyDeleteLet me just say that I will be interested to see how the western economies perform as the government spending gets reined in..
Crude nudging up to resistance again.
ReplyDeleteHow about dollar up, crude down, stocks up and bonds sell off tomorrow through Friday?
ADP weak - stocks up on QE (infinity)
ADP strong - stocks up on THE RECOVERY
ADP wishy washy - stocks up on GOLDILOCKS
B in T: $gaso, $wtic, PPI, CPI all temporary.
ReplyDeleteBut right now it is a great trade to sell bonds, here.
TLT cannot get past 92.
ReplyDeleteWhat is selling today? Banks? Retail? Tech?
Anon
ReplyDeleteTLT is ex-div today. That's all. It'll be back above 92 in a jiffy.
NFW the .1459 fibo is 1307.86 and the SPX stopped at 1307.88. YGBFKM
ReplyDeleteCramer is pumping gold right now. Thinks its going to 1550.
ReplyDeleteThis is limbo...
ReplyDeleteA lot of folks wont trade the long side until we see real buying...
A lot of folks wont short until we see a decent retrace...
So, if you're short, congratulations, if not... you're sitting tight.
Oil and gold,
ReplyDeleteoil and gold,
Fit together like a horse and carriage,
Any time or weather,
You can't have one without the oooooother....
...or somethin' like that...look at them go! Sprints like this and they can be in the summer olympics!
(Did I tell you gas is already up 28 cents here in 2.5 weeks...I know...I know...)
Nice call Jennifer and anyone else who shorted yesterday.
ReplyDeleteVery good technical call.
Are the circuit breakers off??? Is is time to call K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E???
ReplyDeleteCould we call this price action a "gas ceiling"?
ReplyDelete(apologies to NOW.....)
The interesting thing is, Bruce, the supermarket chains and the small biz guy have little to no pricing power so they are just being bent over by the Wizard again.
ReplyDeleteA little unwind of DGDF, OGUF would be bullish for equities tomorrow, and it only takes a job or two to get the bovines excited.
OT
ReplyDeleteBut according to the FARMERS ALMANAC...
Today is a good day to "castrate farm animals"... So put that on your agenda of THINGS TO DO today if you have some spare time...
Thanks, AFIA. Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.
ReplyDeletetoday looks just like figure 1-16 on page 37 of the most recent EWP book.
ReplyDeleteDiagonal
Wanna see a sad chart? Check out DLB.
ReplyDeletehmm on FXA.. seems to be a real tricker.. FXE backing down a bit too.
ReplyDeleteupp still utterly pathetic, however.
Its 11 points back up to ES VWAP. Thinking about going long.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDelete"upp" (or UUP, as the case may be), is a CASTRATED FARM ANIMAL
They always beat me mercilessly the day before ADP.
ReplyDeleteBecause they can.
Megaphones bitchez!
ReplyDeleteSPX will see 1300 tomorrow, then ramp again...
When oil finally comes down, how hard will the SPX get hit? Oil up must be helping hold SPX up somewhat right?
ReplyDeleteThinking about going long.
ReplyDeleteWe are almost certainly taking a punt from the long side.
Hope that doesn't put anyone off !
When oil finally comes down, how hard will the SPX get hit?
ReplyDeleteIt won't. Oil would have to be hammered by $5-10 to get a big BUCKY spike that would reverse dollar carry trades and cause market mayhem. It even takes a big drop in oil for the energy complex to sell off.
Chelsea v Man U game on. Massive.
ReplyDeleteNo wonder AT is otherwise engaged.
Thanks!
ReplyDeleteI think this most recent (5-10 min) down move is just a retest of the top trendline on the now broken wedge.
ReplyDeletewell, 1308 just broke so now we can test the bottom trendline.. lod..
ReplyDeleteWe are long. We sold AGG (a 5% bite).
ReplyDeleteThe Saudis want $120 Brent (to pay for their largesse - I mean, "whore themselves out")...
ReplyDeleteK
ReplyDeleteLooks like we will close red. You can't disappoint your fans...
okay, we are doing it.. making a new low on the spx..
ReplyDeleteSEC probes Fifth Third's commercial loans http://goo.gl/fb/Yvv5U
ReplyDeletefaz is such a bummer.. was 42+ the other day.. having trouble getting to 41 today..
ReplyDeleteMuch better to short FAS if you can get the borrow, the decay works in your favor that way.
ReplyDeletePeople must be starting to buy calls. Price of underlying isn't going up but call prices are.
ReplyDeleteexcellent point, jennifer.
ReplyDeleteMore mortgage lenders move foreclosures back into delinquent bucket: LPS http://goo.gl/fb/VJ
ReplyDeleteThis is the same area we bounced from the other day.
ReplyDelete1298-1307. You know they are going to JBTFD.
We have made some nice gains in F/I off the lows.
Look at LQD, AGG and ZROZ charts.
Not going back to the well with bonds for a week or so.
i wouldn't bet long the spx unless 1310.88 gets bettered..
ReplyDeleteThis feels like a Bear trap. We have seen a few....
ReplyDeletedo check this link: and read side bar comments! green shoots? not!
ReplyDeleteMore mortgage lenders move foreclosures back into delinquent bucket: LPS http://goo.gl/fb/VJ
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
ReplyDeleteDollar Status
Yes, big moment for me this week.
ReplyDeleteLove this fellows videos.. the aussie one was really good and it did break down a bit today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/user/marketvisiontv?feature=mhum
Ra,
ReplyDeletelooks like we'll get a bearish engulfing today
bounced slighly off the 61.8 retrace of the 2/24 through today move, need to make a higher low right now and reverse into tomorrow.
because of the form I think I observe today SPY could bounce well next day or so, but the correction is not likely over.
thanks jennifer, hadn't been to stocktiming in a while.. that was a good, simple chart..
ReplyDeletebecause of the form I think I observe today SPY could bounce well next day or so, but the correction is not likely over.
ReplyDeleteThat's my read. We get 2-3 days of bounce. Although when we get back to selling it will be EEM that we will sell.
It's about time for a visit from
ReplyDelete