AUDJPY (daily info)new high 0.8303
trend=up
high= 0.8303
rev= 0.8258; mid= 0.8281
The AUDJPY cross has gotten some legs beneath it. Risk is back in vogue. But remember that everyone can't leave the party at once.
EEM (daily info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
low= 45.33
rev= 47.25; mid= 46.29
This is the second week EEM closed below its weekly 3LB mid. Weakness has set in. Let's see if the weekly 3LB makes a confirmation low (below 44.80) before calling for the demise of emerging markets. It's also below the 5/10-7/10 trendline. Patience young padawan.
EWZ (weekly info)new low 71.99
trend=down
low= 71.99
rev= 76.57; mid= 74.28
Brazil is showing even more weakness than EEM. It's trending down on the weekly 3LB. Last week it closed below its monthly 3LB mid. The SMA(55) has been acting as support for the last couple of weeks. If that fails then support becomes the SMA(89) and that needs to hold or welcome to Sept 2008 all over again.
Cameron Diaz futures are up...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/asia-s-stocks-currencies-gain-on-outlook-for-global-growth-copper-falls.html
ReplyDeleteStocks Fall on China Rates, German Output; Copper, Oil Decline
“There are inflationist signs and that incites China and other countries to progressively raise rates,” said Matthieu Giuliani, a fund manager at Palatine Asset Management in Paris, which oversees $5.47 billion. “This can weigh on those countries and on Europe and the U.S., which rely on emerging markets for growth. It will be difficult for the domestic European and U.S. economies to pick up from here and rely on their own growth.”
....?
Bruce
ReplyDeleteThe headline describing the fall in Germany's industrial output blames it on the weather. YGBFKM.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteCV blames it on the "WHETHER"... (as is "whether" or not we're running into another 2008 meltdown)...
from ZH
ReplyDelete"In a world in which every central bank is laser-focused on destroying its currency, interventions that serve to stabilize currencies are a fond memory. Yet that is precisely what the Egyptian Central Bank did earlier after it intervened directly in the FX market to support the EGPUSD after it plunged to lows of 0.168. Subsequent to the intervention the pound jumped modestly to 0.1701, which only means that the intervention support level will be promptly taken out in the next four days if not hours. The inverse spot rate is 5.8789, which as we predicted a few days ago is about to surge far higher, even when taking Ben Bernanke's admonitions that the ECB has no choice but to keep its currency weak. Of course, a plunge in the EGP simply means that food will get all that much more expense, and let's remember for a second just what was the reason for the revolution in Egypt to being with..."
good morning! bruce.. you are too funny.. AR.. did i mention last night that you forgot the JJC candle?!
ReplyDeletelook at the gold spike..
Gold
ReplyDelete1361.28
+10.19 +0.75%
karen,
"Spike" ? really? I was under the impression the 'Spikes' were ~3 (multiple) % points, no?
ibid.
and, CV, brot up a good point last night.. i found nothing odd about clip of cam feeding rod popcorn.. i thot it was cute, actually. around me you would get more likely get orange slices or watermelon chunks with squeezed lime, plump juicy grapes or ripe berries.. maybe some roasted cashews or almonds.. oh, and btw, would you like another cold beer?
ReplyDeleteMark.. i'm showing up over 1%.. my definition of a spike is a quick move in a matter of minutes.. so in 15 min or so it spiked $15 plus.. to almost $1366.. looks to have backed off..
ReplyDeletek-
ReplyDeleteI hear ya, it's, just, that I don't, usually, bother to watch those short-term Charts..
actually, intra-day, I don't watch Charts, nearly, at all..
though, here
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO
Thursday had a good 'Spike', as well..
at these Price-levels, ~10-20 $ moves aren't that unusal in Gold, are they..
'MMods, in general, trade to trade 'choppy', no?
~~
also, I agree, re: ARod 'feeding', nothing wrong with it..
AAIP
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/02/indian-stocks-falter-again-dropping-15.html
ReplyDelete@karen (8:52)
ReplyDeleteYears ago when I was doing the "Match.com" thing (this is true)... In the part that said "what are you looking for in a woman"... I wrote:
"Well, anyone who was willing to show up at the door naked with a pizza & six pack of beer would instantly qualify"...
That one actually got by the censors, and oddly, I got a lot of responses that said they LOVED that... So guys... TAKE NOTE...
chet, you never confessed to match.com when i was talking about it a few weeks ago!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/morning-gold-fixing-gold-bullion-considered-collateral-international-clearing-house-%E2%80%93-lchcle
ReplyDelete---
LCH.Clearnet is giving further consideration to a plan to accept gold bullion as collateral. They may accept gold bullion as collateral against margin positions on a range of asset classes and derivatives in the international financial markets.
Bruegel Think Tank Says Greece Should Restructure Debt Now, Claims Country Is Insolvent, Should Not Receive More Loans http://is.gd/zZvYG0
ReplyDelete(AP:RENO, Nev.) The U.S. Department of Agriculture is offering Nevada asparagus producers financial compensation for marketing losses resulting from imports during the 2004 through 2007 crop years.
ReplyDeleteUSDA Farm Service Agency Nevada state executive Clint Koble announced Monday in Reno that producers can apply for compensation through April 8.
Koble says the Asparagus Revenue Market Loss Assistance Payment Program aims to help commercial producers whose livelihoods were affected when asparagus imports dramatically increased during those years.
A one-time payment can total up to $1.06 per pound for fresh market asparagus and $1.08 per pound for asparagus marketed for processing.
Payments are calculated based on 2003 marketed production quantities.
Koble says producers with an average gross income in excess of $2.5 million for calendar years 2003, 2004 and 2005 aren't eligible.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897687672712
ibid.
and, We 'think' we've problems w/ the Tea Party (?)
ReplyDelete(AP:BUCHAREST, Romania) There's more bad news in the cards for Romania's beleaguered witches.
A month after Romanian authorities began taxing them for their trade, the country's soothsayers and fortune tellers are cursing a new bill that threatens fines or even prison if their predictions don't come true.
Witches argue they shouldn't be blamed for the failure of their tools.
"They can't condemn witches, they should condemn the cards," Queen witch Bratara Buzea told The Associated Press by telephone.
Superstition is a serious matter in the land of Dracula, and officials have turned to witches to help the recession-hit country collect more money and crack down on tax evasion.
In January, officials changed labor laws to officially recognize the centuries-old practice as a taxable profession, prompting angry witches to dump poisonous mandrake into the Danube in an attempt to put a hex on the government....
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68976876770711
The AP, always good for a BS 'Headline'..
AAIP
Bruegel Think Tank Says Greece Should Restructure Debt Now, Claims Country Is Insolvent, Should Not Receive More Loans http://is.gd/zZvYG0
ReplyDelete-----
If you bet against Greece you will lose your shirt.
LULU IS UFB..
ReplyDeleteLULU short position about 16%.. bet that is keeping it aloft..
ReplyDeleteseriously, and how do they do their accounting.. it costs money to open and staff stores.. sure the margin on those stretchy clothes might be high.. but this is truly ABSURD.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosenberg-how-only-10-year-can-break-markets-trendline-and-what-can-dent-top-line-corporate-
ReplyDeletecute photo of Nick Nolte (70 today!)
ReplyDeletehttp://dlisted.com/node/40715
More wealthy DC residents registering guns http://yhoo.it/fz0vlS
ReplyDeleteIf you bet against LULU you will lose your leotard...
ReplyDeleteInteresting kittle VIX candle working today
ReplyDeletere: LULU
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLB&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
TLB ~5.53
~~
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
~16.49
ibid.
A bit late today... I was waylaid this morning.
ReplyDeleteBonds a bit stronger, EMs a bit weaker. Voldemort came through with the hike. Now, will others follow?
I might have to slit my wrists if the dollar doesn't get off the mat.. is the DGDF ever going to end?
ReplyDeletelook and bonds again..
ReplyDeleteSweet little Bucky will be just fine...
ReplyDelete:)
Good point K, I am fixated on the rear end. Of the curve.
ReplyDeleteThe next move by Bucky will be sharp
- and bad news for EM longs.
A little pre-auction push to get the 10y out to 3.70-3.75%.
ReplyDeleteThen they will all want me.
"Sweet little Bucky will be just fine..."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dl.ket.org/latinlit/mores/currency/currency.htm
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BOE.V&ql=1
ReplyDelete10:14AM EST: 2.84 -0.02 (0.70%)
this little Co., should do well..
ibid.
@ "AS"
ReplyDeleteIts THE TIME... not the outcome.
Confident that your timing is right?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ZNC.TO&ql=1
ReplyDeletethis little Org. should 3x by ~Oct.
AAIP
There's silver approaching $30 again. Now add in mints who keep running out of silver. Prices probably should be much higher.
ReplyDeleteIt's all fun and games until you get killed by a chicken....
ReplyDeletehttp://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2011/02/07/rooster-kills-man-attending-cockfight/
So happy we are not sporting a Widowmaker.
ReplyDeleteDon't bend over in front of the golden steamroller.
AR,
ReplyDeletere: Ag
no kidding..the 'Deflationist'-view on the PMs, esp. Argent, has been 'out to Lunch'..
ibid.
AIG is delaying.. guess there were no buyers.. even with market at this level? eurphoria getting shy? or maybe the only ones moving this market are black boxes.
ReplyDeletelook at the dollar now.. what in the heck!
ReplyDeleteThere is a fine line between "confidence", and "cock-i-ness".
ReplyDeleteJust ask Andy T's chicken up there.
well, the dollar isn't giving much of a boost to crude..
ReplyDeleteDont be a "con" or a "cock", Anonymous.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/quantitative-easing-finance-equity-markets-fed/2/8/2011/id/32670
ReplyDeleteand the euro is up because???
ReplyDeleteFrom Minyanville article
ReplyDelete"Regardless of the Fed’s role, there have been other, more disturbing bits of evidence that we are in a Matrix Market. Exhibit One is the so-called flash crash of May 2010 during which stocks fell by 600 points in five minutes before staging and equally vertiginous recovery. The crash offered evidence that something truly scary lay behind the reassuring façade of buoyant markets. Subsequent investigation revealed that High Frequency Trading, which relies on algorithms to execute super-fast trades, exacerbated the collapse. Revelations about the extraordinary percentage (sometimes over 80%) of trading attributable to HFT programs in stocks such as Citi (C) and AIG (AIG) suggest that the metaphor of a Matrix Market may be literally as well as figuratively true, and also helped explain how a market suffering continuing retail withdrawals could still rise to a multi-year high during a very weak economic recovery. Economist Michael Hudson of the University of Missouri calculated that the average time a stock was held during 2010 was 22 seconds, not exactly buy and hold.
Of course it’s entirely possible that both HFT and the impact of the Fed’s easing program are overblown; that the market’s rise can be simply explained by solid corporate earnings and the perception of a real recovery. If that’s the case, the market will continue to plug higher so long as the recovery story remains credible to investors and earnings hold up. If, however, the rally is largely an artifact of the jet fuel supplied by the Fed and amplified by algorithmic trading, then watch out"
Here's the dip on the DXY...maybe carving out the right shoulder. 77.60 and 77.32 are first and second levels of support. Decent risk/reward with cash DXY printing 77.73. The stop loss point is fairly well defined.
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $2.19 billion in Treasury debt on Tuesday, part of the Fed's second round of quantitative easing, and includes purchases made under a previous program to reinvest cash from its maturing mortgage-related holdings back into Treasurys. Dealers offered the central bank $9.391 billion in debt maturing from 2028 to 2040. Since the program began in August, the Fed had bought $387 billion through Monday, according to Morgan Stanley. After the buyback, Treasury prices stayed down, pushing yields higher. Ten-year note yields rose 2 basis points, or 0.02%, to 3.67%.
ReplyDeletedo I SPY a canard in the market? http://chart.ly/l9tapui
ReplyDeleteand the dow is up because???
ReplyDeleteoh, i can answer that.. because DIA volume is dropping to near zero..
ReplyDeleteSomeone is buying the Dow stocks....?
ReplyDeleteThe JP Morgue must be short crude:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/jpmorgan-says-bullish-crude-oil-investors-should-consider-taking-profit.html
the dollar has a pulse!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/ex-lehman-executives-underwriters-accused-by-calpers-of-hiding-bond-risks.html
ReplyDeleteTLT formed a bullish piercing yesterday.
ReplyDeleteDXY double bottom? Let's hope it holds.
ReplyDeleteThe Motley Fool
ReplyDeleteRT @TMFRuleBreakers: A disturbing milestone for Lululemon ($LULU) Cramer dresses up to pitch the stock: http://mot.ly/erkNW3
80bps on 2y. Astonishing scenes.
ReplyDelete3y auction ahead at 1pm. The big one is on Wednesday - 10y.
ReplyDelete89.49 +0.22 (0.25%) 12:21PM EST TLT
ReplyDeleteFixxy,
what are you sweating?
ibid.
Mark
ReplyDeleteWe never sweat during trading hours. In fact, we barely perspire.
Remember, we are British.
2yr T-Bill had a weekly 3LB reversal down last week (below 109.211). It also is now trading below its monthly 3LB reversal price (109.320).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/jobs-report-january-jobs-employment-situation/2/7/2011/id/32671?camp=featuredslide&medium=home&from=minyanville
ReplyDeleteWhy the January Jobs Report Is Alarming
"In this respect, no amount of weather-spinning can obfuscate the dismal facts about the medium-term jobs trend -- to say nothing of any net job gains since the last century! Specifically, during the December 2007-June 2009 official recession period, we lost 7.3 million nonfarm payroll jobs, bringing the nonfarm payroll count to 130.64 million at the point the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) said recovery officially commenced. But after 19 months of green shoots, we now actually have 400,000 fewer jobs. And, yes, employment is purportedly a lagging indicator, but it is simply off the historical charts to have the job count down 5.5% at a point that is currently 37 months after the cyclical peak.
Until the latest benchmark adjustments, December 2009 was the low point in the jobs cycle and as of December 2010 reporting, we had apparently gained 1.1 million jobs, or about 100,000 per month -- not enough to cover working age population growth but at least modest progress. But now Lucy has pulled the football here, too. As of the January report, the nonfarm job gain since December 2009 is now only 677,000, or just 52,000 per month. At the rate of gain over the past 13 months, therefore, it will take 160 more months to recover the jobs lost during the Great Recession."
Mr. Stockman has been looking at CR's red line much too long...have some popcorn!
ReplyDelete10yr T-Note is now confirming its monthly 3LB reversal down (being below 120.438). It's also solidly below SMA(55) on the weekly chart.
ReplyDelete(not a JW article) http://www.businessinsider.com/home-prices-decline-fifth-month-2011-2
ReplyDeleteNoah Freeman and Donald Longueuil , former junior portfolio managers at SAC Capital Advisors LP, according to a person familiar with the matter, were among four hedge fund employees charged in a U.S. crackdown on insider trading.
ReplyDeleteNobody has given up Stevie yet, but the net is tightening....
By the way, I think most of us here would get something from the Stockman piece, especially his thoughts and graphs on "breadwinner jobs"..
ReplyDeletebondscoop Mike Jackson
ReplyDeleteFed added 2 to primary dealer list. Thsi should decr. direct bids and incr. dealer bids. Do not be surprised with a drop in the direct %.
I just noticed that the 2yr yield had a monthly 3LB reversal up 12/10 but the 2yr bill didn't reverse down until now.
ReplyDeleteUUP down. EEM down. Interesting and unusual.
ReplyDeleteCorrelation breakdowns - major turn in the works?
Hedgies will smell weakness.
ReplyDeleteLike piranha they will swarm and strip the EMs to the bone.
3y auction
ReplyDeleteTotal Amount $32 B
Bid/Cover 3.01
Yield Awarded 1.349%
weak auction and a 7 bps tail on the yield.
this was always going to be the worst of the three !
Santelli grades 3 yr auction at C+. B-to-C is 3.01. Treasury sells $32bln at 1.349% $$
ReplyDeleteMy man, Reggie has got some game !!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/dr-bernanke-shalom-benenake-aka-dr-frankenfinance-blew-many-bubbles-finance-capital-nyc-cond
Take it to the house, Reggie !
Yes that auction is what is known in England as "a real stinker"
ReplyDeleteThat was a rant! (RM's piece.) The Stockman article was on the line as well.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/danish-banks-face-consolidation-as-amagerbanken-leaves-investors-in-lurch.html?t=CF-OK&pos=3
ReplyDeleteInteresting. I was there last summer and they have a big property bubble. Not a big economy but it might pop. Less corrupt than Ireland. They do have tremendous belief in their own infallibility, so overleveraged banks are not surprising.
Nobody rants like Reggie.
ReplyDeleteA shit-load of condo projects are being finished in Harlem. I am sure they were bailed out "for the people". Not for the banks or developers.
Not sure who will buy them if the bankers stop shitting bonus bucks.
EEM trading like a turd in a swimming pool.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/08/greece-eu-juncker-idUSATH00590920110208
ReplyDeleteEurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said on Tuesday he was open to a Greek debt buyback and a 30-year extension to the repayment of the country's bailout loans if Germany would consider it.
Cando tanking on crude? Traded in the remainder of my loonies yesterday..
ReplyDeleteso was that a dead cat bounce for TLT yesterday?
ReplyDeletewell, maybe this will be of interest to someone: African luxury hotel now massive squat
ReplyDeletehttp://www.boingboing.net/2011/02/08/african-luxury-hotel.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_MnagdE_8k
ReplyDeleteLawrence McDonald: Everybody is being Bamboozled
karen
ReplyDeletere:TLT
A non confirmation of the bullish piercing would probably be considered a dead cat bounce.
i resemble that remark..
ReplyDeleteToo early to bury me.
ReplyDeletePre-auction shorting.
Heh heh. Just when BB & TG thought the yields on the 10yr & 30yr would decrease they flip the script and march higher.
ReplyDeleteI'm holding out hope for you Mr. Long Bond.. just don't we are quite there yet..
ReplyDeleteEnterprise Products has a huge fire going in Mont Belvieu, TX.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/world/middleeast/201101-egypt-protest-gallery/
ReplyDeleteandy, i saw that on twitter.. it was quickly turned into a bid on crude.. just as the suez canal strikes were this morning..
ReplyDeleteDustbin fire in Rochdale. Nigerian incident.
ReplyDeleteCrude rallies...
BTW, Yves had a go at Krugman for not understanding futures.
ReplyDeleteAgain...
AR
ReplyDeleteit's a SUGAR HIGH. In the NEW NORMAL, BB wanted peep to sell Ts and buy JUNK so that the BANKS can buy the Ts back at lower prices. Meanwhile everyone beats the inflation drum and scares peep out of bonds.
So Qe2 was a success.
The silver squeeze is hysterical to me.. GLD has a ways to go before it turns its 13/34 ema trend chart back up.. SLV euphoria may be short lived..
ReplyDeleteAs Bill would say, Treasuries for manipulation, munis for income and a young camel for ecstasy.
ReplyDeleteIs it just me or does EEM have an appointment with 44?
ReplyDeleteLooks like we will be digging deep into our vaults for cash today.
ReplyDeleteAnother little punt in the direction of fixed income coming up.
twitter and the market are trading real-time.. lol.. when rumors move markets.. skittishness is at an extreme level.
ReplyDeleteEEM is looking very 44ish to me.
ReplyDeleteI got so tired of waiting for Giles that I went for a manicure. My typing is dramatically improved now :-) Miss any good dip buying opportunities?
ReplyDeleteTiny bit of Cold Steel. Remember when he could ramp you to Heaven, ladies? Now he hardly seems capable of Afternoon Delight...
ReplyDeleteHe is certainly not deterring me from my Firm Shorts.
Giles is going to get busy after the 30y auction. 1pm Thursday.
Models and Bottles, and Suction Machines.
ReplyDeleteThis is how we roll.
Is the machine ready, Giles? We don't want any mistakes....
ReplyDeleteLast time we did a test run it got caught on Abby Jo's dress.
The therapy was expensive...
You told me you loved it.
ReplyDeleteDOW 33k, btw.
No mistakes this time. Heads will roll.
ReplyDeleteYou don't want to be the next Fabulous Fab.
The US economy is a powerful job creating machine.
ReplyDeleteWhat? Even I don't believe that.
ReplyDeleteThe US economy is a powerful Ponzi and POMO machine.
ReplyDeleteI am not going to happen. It might be fun...
ReplyDeleteBut I am not going to happen.
I am not going anywhere either.
ReplyDeleteAre you suggesting I am losing my leverage?
ReplyDeleteYou are about as dangerous as a soggy stick of celery.
ReplyDeleteOk...Lefty..I have been wondering for some time why a great many of your comments were about,er,you know....
ReplyDelete..it almost seemed at times like you were banned from women...I thought...Nah, can't be...Can it?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41476929/ns/world_news-europe/
UK man with low IQ banned from having sex
........Where did you say you were from...?
dia, spy, qqqq, all at half volume with an hour and 15 to go..
ReplyDeleteThey want to tag 3.75% on the 10y. Told you so.
ReplyDeletelulu in pennant.. since it already broke up once.. the breakdown is eminent..
ReplyDeleteWhat is volume on eem? Same deal?
ReplyDeleteMr. Long.. looks like they are going for 4 to me..
ReplyDeleteI have run out of boots again. Can't get enough long bonds.
ReplyDeleteon eem, basically, yes.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/video/marketnews-19148628/schroeder-says-gist-of-whitney-s-muni-forecast-valid-24118491;_ylt=A9G_RrnvmlFNeyYB6hy7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTExaDdlYWh2BHBvcwMzBHNlYwN2aWRlb3MEc2xrA3NjaHJvZWRlcnNheQ--
ReplyDeleteFeb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Alice Schroeder, a Bloomberg columnist and author, discusses Wall Street's reaction to analyst Meredith Whitney's forecast for municipal bonds. Whitney made the predictions during a Dec. 19 segment of CBS's 60 Minutes. "You could see 50 sizable defaults, 50 to 100…
Mr. Long.. looks like they are going for 4 to me..
ReplyDeleteHave you been peeking again?
4.00% is possible again, but not in our model.
We model the 30y anyway in the 4.6-4.8% band.
Model still valid.
4 would be über-bearish for equities.
The 30y mtg has hit 4.99%, not much room there.
These bids are relentless... big change getting tossed around on little pullbacks...
ReplyDeleteTs will rally on
ReplyDeleteMuni weakness
Commodity correction
Euro debt problems
EM bond sell off
Equity weakness
Credit risk perception
Weaker employment
Slower economic data
Short squeeze
Bank recapitalization trade
Even Marc F thinks they will rally
- before bekoming VURTHLEZZ.
What's interesting today is the TIPS spread hasn't budged.
ReplyDeleteSo whatever this is about it is not INFLATION.
Must be the DYNAMIC JOBS RECOVERY. Or the auctions...
Liam
ReplyDeleteI thought you were a daft guitarist from Manchester?
Sorry.
ReplyDeleteWrong blog.
Beer, birds, Oasis and football...
That's better.
ReplyDeleteThe horror, the horror.....
ReplyDeleteI am doing it to you.
ReplyDeleteIs that all you got?
ReplyDeleteIf we go red at the close.. I promise a new avatar for tomorrow.. something red, of course...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-auerbach/has-computer-trading-made_b_819664.html
ReplyDeleteLB,
ReplyDeletehere's something for you to think about..
http://www.whale.to/a/monsanto_h.html
should help 'calm the voices' .. :)
ibid.
If we went red at the close, I might actually get an avatar!
ReplyDeleteIf we close red, I will never post here again...
ReplyDeleteAll we can do here is hold our noses and buy a little bit more. Cold steel indeed.
ReplyDelete- Knife Catcher Capital LLC
I-Man, don't be like that, LOL!
ReplyDeleteDiana Olick
ReplyDeleteMillerTabak's Boockvar:"W/Treas selloff&further jump in yields, 30yr FNMA coupon highest since 4/10.30yr morg rate will be above 5% tomorrow
(sound of heavy breathing.....)
ReplyDeleteI'm just saying how low a probability I think that outcome is without being mean.
ReplyDeleteOn YM, we're right at the mid of a bullish price channel, so I dont see us turning back now. Better chance we tag the top of the channel again, right now, around 12220 if we hit it before the close.
Besides, all yall know I wouldnt be able to stay away for more than an hour... day at best.
Knife Catcher Capital LLC fixed income specialists commented "I've got blisters on my fingers".
ReplyDeleteSchadenfreude Asset Management agreed: "We are down to the change jars in the kitchen here but we are still buying Treasuries."
5% mortgages is a danger sign for THE BERNANK. Somewhere in the Eccles building, THE BERNANK is buying TLT calls.
14565 is the number for the $wlsh to beat.. we are almost there.. 14027.00 is the HOD..
ReplyDeleteUmmm what was that move at 15:10 on the SPX 1-min chart?
ReplyDelete@ Ra
ReplyDeleteWhere a bunch of folks who faded that last spike had their buystops, and where some folks who knew better hit the hammer on the bids.
and AR, looking at the one min chart.. you see that rev h&s??
ReplyDeleteshould help 'calm the voices' .. :)
ReplyDeleteROR.... we have always had a rich inner life, Marky.
could drive us straight to 1330! ;o
ReplyDeletesomebody flipped on the buy switch at 3.. where are those rolling blackouts when you need 'em?
ReplyDeleteIn the spirit of sharing...here is an interesting chart of SPX with rolling POMO overlaid.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/Q2oJT7vDaN
Added to EM shorts. Cold Steel seems to be US based these days.
ReplyDeleteAdded to Treasury longs....
Cash levels are almost exhausted. The exception is a 10% block we have designated for fixed income hedging going forward.
3.75% and 4.80% were the limits of the model. We guessed that would be equivalent to a 30y mtg just above 5%, and up to 5.25%. After that we think a whole lot of bad things start happening to banks, CMBS.
Looking around there are a lot of correlation breakdowns, so if this isn't a turn in something (bucky, EMs, commodities) then we are wrong and we are probably going to be described as InvestTools for a while.
We do hope not. we hate to be B in Ts whipping boy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-entire-us-economy-in-three-simple-rail-charts-2011-2
ReplyDeleteAw, you might like it...
ReplyDelete@ Ra
ReplyDeleteTo take it a little deeper, I think that someone has a program, that is designed to hunt other programs.
This program knows how much, and at what speed to move price in a low volume period, in order to trigger sell programs in an overbought condition in an uptrend.
This all happens on a timeframe probably even faster than the 1min.
It then knows to go for the kill once the buystops of the sell programs are tripped.
Could be just a pipe dream from the I-Man's dome... but I think its real.
At least I trade like that shit is real, better safe than sorry.
Here's my chart. Even in 2007, my yield was only 5.40%:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=TYX:IND
2008 was about 4.85% and April 2010 was 4.80%.
The Bond has got his hat on, hip hip hip hooray....
The long bond's got his hat on and he's coming out to play.
Singing bonds?
ReplyDeleteI guess equities have been wearing a clown nose for a while....
$wlsh bettered its previous high.. 14029.25.. no way that even number was gonna stick...
ReplyDeleteIt then knows to go for the kill once the buystops of the sell programs are tripped.
ReplyDeleteThis is the Matrix, Neo...
The aforementioned sell programs are designed themselves to hunt stops in uptrends, especially accelerating ones.
ReplyDeleteThey in turn can be piled on by momentum traders, especially when there is the smell of fear in the air.
But most of the time, I think they suck in shorts who are fighting the tape, and perpetuate the uptrend, like in the instance you pointed out earlier.
The speed increases the volatility in all of this, and if there are competing sellers, then look out below.
Thats when it turns into a pack of wild dogs.
So, not anyone in particular, or any computer in particular is in control, its a web of action, and counteraction.
Remember when there was a Market, a Free Market?
ReplyDeleteNo. Neither do I....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/record-low-arctic-sea-ice-extent-for-january/
ReplyDeleteOf course, all that crap is just like, my opinion, man.
ReplyDeleteI have given up entering stops. If we look like a Fwash Cwash is setting up, I will even take the deep stops off my divvys.
ReplyDeleteI just put a trade on now, and if I don't like how it goes within a given time-frame, I take it off.
What's a "FREE MARKET"?
ReplyDeleteI've only been watching this shit flicker in green and red lights since 2005...
Lame, I know.
record-low-arctic-sea-ice
ReplyDeleteYeah it's all on my car....
What's a "FREE MARKET"?
ReplyDeleteOne with no holes, Neo. Born free, right here in Zion.
Actually, from my rather simple seat, if rates keep rising anything like they have lately...I would still bet the farm stocks will correct hard..
ReplyDeleteI will watch this for a few more days, but if things keep up, I suspect I will have to short the DOW...
AFIATBNL,
ReplyDeleteProbably a good strategy if you're attentive.
The stop placement is certainly a finesse thing... art.
The hardest thing for the I is not taking a small loss, or even a few in a row, tho that does piss one off, its getting clipped out by a protective stop, only to have your profitable trade, clipped out on a midtrend low to the tick, and then continue another 25 pts higher...
THAT, really pisses one off.
Throw in a couple of botched entries trying to chase your way back into the trend, and you have an idea that was "right", end up not making you a dime.
I keep telling I-Self that it doesnt matter as long as you're booking gains, but its very hard.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteThese rates are already enough to strangle housing sales/prices.
A rotation from risk assets into bonds is way overdue.
1pm Thursday after the 30y auction. If not before.
DIA 2008 high 122.46.. today, 122.17 !!!!!
ReplyDeletespy 2008 high 135.73.. today, 132.56 (so far)
and the Qs haven't been this high (58.01) since 2001
The hardest thing for the I is not taking a small loss, or even a few in a row, tho that does piss one off, its getting clipped out by a protective stop, only to have your profitable trade, clipped out on a midtrend low to the tick, and then continue another 25 pts higher...
ReplyDeleteSurely this is the only reason for HFT/robos to exist...?
Side note:
ReplyDeleteBucky's lil tail did make a nice comeback today.
Looks like "real money buying" like the boyz at forexlive say.
I think the two current targets on the SPX are 1333.58 which is up 100% from the low and 1361.50 which is the 76.4% retrace of 1576.09-666.79. IMHO.
ReplyDeleteFor certain, it is uncanny how they sniff them out.
ReplyDeleteJust part of the game, though.
Fuckers.
Running up the stock market and the price of raised ranches with marble vanities and granite kitchen counters at the expense of enormous debt to be paid back by future generations really has to be one of the most stupid, pointless and self-destructive acts that a nation could ever undertake.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Ben.
Well, Lefty, my wife and I have just been discussing hanging up the shingle and just living the life of Riley for the next few decades...but I won't be able to resist betting against the DOW if this keeps up...
ReplyDeleteOur group sells the entire mine in April...time to use the lottery ticket. We've been talking to suitors for 2 months..
If they dont make a big push by the time I'm done typing this I'm bailin...
ReplyDeleteWhat's interesting is how little progress is being made everyday by stocks that actually pay a dividend.
ReplyDeleteThis really is a pet rock.com rally
Ites...
ReplyDeleteWas a good day.
Just every little once in a while, I'd like those triangle/wedge thingys to break DOWN.
ReplyDeleteWe can also leave the mine at any time, thanks to having escaped the Crash in 2008. Digging isn't as much fun as it used to be. It will be time to leave it to the young 'uns soon.
ReplyDeleteI really want a couple of those surfboards with the sail in the middle thingys...windsurfing here with all this wind should be awesome, and I have never tried it..
ReplyDeleteGood luck with the sale, Bruce.
ReplyDeleteDIA high.. 122.22. '08 high 122.46.. close enuf for government work.
ReplyDeleteon a monthly chart.. that 08 high was the turn.. waterfall to 61.49.
Ra is the expert, but I think that triangle patterns are predominantly continuation patterns.
ReplyDeleteWe sold our DF stake just now. We were up 41%...
ReplyDeletePigs get slaughtered...
I-Man -- they are. Just sayin'.
ReplyDeleteThe Bond Report 2.8.11
ReplyDeleteA man is sobbing uncontrollably into his pillow. He is a fixed income investor. COLD STEEL is at the window, looking out at the grey landscape, smoking a cigarette.
Fade to Black...
My bad, I failed to detect thy snark.
ReplyDeleteDow extends run into seventh day, the longest winning streak in nearly seven months
ReplyDelete02/08/2011 04:02:24 PM
So AFIA, let's look forward to better days... what's your upside target for TLT?
ReplyDeleteThe corporation that will win our fair hands, probably, had already agreed to all our preconditions...
ReplyDelete...Only problem is I still love what I do...I doubt I would have be as good at almost any other profession you can imagine...I may just keep mining...
AFIA2BNL
ReplyDeleteI'm over here dying of laughter.
AFIA:
ReplyDeleteYou'd feel better if you had an industrial-strength hanky..better to blow your nose with whenever you feel all your Ben Franklins have left you...