Morning Corner 2.7.11

BIDU (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 117.68
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 117.68
rev= 96.53; mid= 107.11


I checked headlines on Baidu and could not find anything explaining the bullish move. Are traders simply looking for Chinese companies that are real? Are Google and China having problems again?



Corn (weekly info)
new high 678.50
trend=up
high= 678.50
rev= 629.00; mid= 653.75



Corn prices are up. Some are blaming The Bernank for higher commodity prices. But corn hit its high on 2008 before QE1 or QE2. The high in 2008 may have been due to weather problems that affected crops. So weather seems to be more of a factor than free money from The Bernank. Now what happens when weather comes back into the picture while QE is ongoing?


Best Superbowl commercial (since most were boring):

135 comments:

BinT said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/treasury-yield-near-9-month-high-before-72-billion-of-auctions-this-week.html

Treasuries Fall a Sixth Day as U.S. Prepares Debt Sales Starting Tomorrow

...OK, Leftback. Here's how you do it. Find a busy corner and you will need a big tin cup and lots of pencils. Sunglasses help, that way many of the folks that go by will think you can't see, and they will put a little more in the cup. Probably a line like,"I lost everything in the bond bust of 2011" would be good, but some won't know what that is, so "Bernanke did it to me" might be even better. I think I'd make me a sign too, big letters on roughly cut cardboard, and put it beside me. Or get a little dog, not well-fed, you understand.

..BinT will get you started...

BinT said...

Commercials were lame, Black-eyed peas, ditto. National anthem apparently hard to learn the words...but the Packers won. However, obviously the Steelers were the better team. Or maybe they were the stronger team.....

BinT said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704570104576124431222102862.html

Time For Fed to Step Up Its Transparency

...Heh, heh, heh! What a knee slapper!

...silly rabbits...

BinT said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/corn-advances-to-30-month-high-as-demand-climbs-eroding-world-stockpiles.html

Corn rose to a 30-month high in Chicago as the U.S. government may lower its stockpile estimate on increased demand from China and ethanol makers. Wheat gained after Egypt bought U.S. and Argentine grain.

Wheat for March delivery advanced 10.5 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $8.6425 a bushel. The grain reached $8.7275, the highest level since August 2008, on Feb. 3. Milling wheat for March delivery traded on NYSE Liffe in Paris added 1 percent to 277.50 euros ($376.65) a ton.


Soybeans for March delivery gained 9.5 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $14.43 a bushel in Chicago.

...But things are ok, I see the BOE forecast a 1.2% estimated inflation rate for the next twelve months...time for another cocktail...

CV said...

Corn & Commodity prices (corn in this instance) were up in 2008 largely due to the ETHANOL mandate)... Same way, probably, copper prices are up right now because they think the wholw world is going to be driving coal fired Chevy volts and building a fleet of those is ridiculous...

Toss on a heaping helping of "leverage" (still in abundance in 2008)... and you have the right cocktail...

Corn, now, frankly I WOULD still give the Bernank credit for (as well as other things)... Anything "priced in dollars" is, and will be high beta, during bouts... It will be high beta SELLOFF during all the bouts going the other way...

But the bottom line is, on a longer time timescale, commodities aren't going to zero, while NFLX may... That's just my stupid wild opinion...

CV said...

Was I dreaming, or did Christina Aguilera sing the national anthem wrong?

This is the first time I've checked the internet, so I seriously don't know the answer to that...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/business/07king.html?_r=2&ref=business

A Crisis of Faith in Britain’s Central Banker

With food and energy prices increasing and the weakness of the British pound making imports more expensive, he said, monetary policy could not “alter the fact that, one way or another, the squeeze in living standards is the inevitable price to pay for the financial crisis and the subsequent rebalancing of the world and U.K. economies.”

...However, our central banker has a bigger helicopter than the Swerve...

CV said...

For those who don't buy their stocks with gold...

Well, you can now...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morning-gold-fixing-jp-morgan-accepts-gold-bullion-collateral-%E2%80%93-silver-backwardation-lead-sh

Bruce in Tennessee said...

As a pup, we sang the national anthem before each football game and yada yada yada...amazing that in your only job at the Super Bowl you flub it...

...I also loved the pregame comment from the Fox crew,"This is more than a football game."

Oh, really? Maybe it is a Swedish meatball???? A litter of puppies?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

The Hussy:

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110207.htm

"If you examine the historical data (see Sixteen Cents - Pushing the Unstable Limits of Monetary Policy ), it's clear that the U.S. economy has never been willing to carry more than 9-10 cents of base money per dollar of nominal GDP, except when Treasury bill yields have been well below 2%. By the time the Fed completes QE2, the U.S. monetary base will be about $2.4 trillion, versus nominal GDP of about $14.9 trillion.

It's fairly straightforward to estimate (see the Sixteen Cents article for more formal calculations) that in order to accommodate short-term interest rates even in the 1-2% range without inflationary pressure, we would presently require the monetary base to contract to $1.4 trillion - still far higher than the pre-1998 norm of $800 billion, but $1 trillion less than what will be outstanding once QE2 is completed."

M E Hoffer said...

cv--

re: Anthem, apparently so..

even the local 'Weather Girl' was "reporting" that the 'Social Nets' were "blowing up" about it..

Twitter, what a value-add (here in 'Caine-ville)
~~

though, past that, thanks for all the insight you've laid out re: Football (like AT was saying on the previous thread..)

AAIP

Anonymous said...

btw, why did Fox 'digitally fuzz-out' the Tattoo on Woodson's right arm?

happened at ~1:54 left in the 2nd Qtr., as he was coming to the sidelines, shortly after he was injured..

ibid.

Anonymous said...

cv--

@07:43

that's funny, right?

but, who would give those mofo's their Bullion for 'safekeeping'/"Collateral"?

AAIP

Jennifer said...

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/02/oliver-wyman-financial-crisis-of-2015.html

Blames central bankers....who could have known?

18 said...

1332...
1314... you are here
1296... good support
1278... gooder support

might be out until end of week but things, as of now, look bullish. If we see 1305 then we see 1314 came to fruition.

Anonymous said...

"Since the federal constitution has removed all danger of our having a paper tender, our trade is advanced fifty percent. Our monied people can trust their cash abroad, and have brought their coin into circulation."
-- The Pennsylvania Gazette
December 16, 1789
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/The.Gazette.Quote.B173


"As a very important source of strength and security, cherish public credit. One method of preserving it is to use it as sparingly as possible, avoiding occasions of expense by cultivating peace, but remembering also that timely disbursements to prepare for danger frequently prevent much greater disbursements to repel it, avoiding likewise the accumulation of debt, not only by shunning occasions of expense, but by vigorous exertion in time of peace to discharge the debts which unavoidable wars may have occasioned, not ungenerously throwing upon posterity the burden which we ourselves ought to bear. The execution of these maxims belongs to your representatives, but it is necessary that public opinion should co-operate."
-- George Washington
(1732-1799) Founding Father, 1st US President, 'Father of the Country'
Source: George Washington's Farewell Address, September 19, 1796
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/George.Washington.Quote.4D33


"The chief duty of the National Government in connection with the currency of the country is to coin money and declare its value. Grave doubts have been entertained whether Congress is authorized by the Constitution to make any form of paper money legal tender. The present issue of United States notes has been sustained by the necessities of war; but such paper should depend for its value and currency upon its convenience in use and its prompt redemption in coin at the will of the holder, and not upon its compulsory circulation. These notes are not money, but promises to pay money. If the holders demand it, the promise should be kept."
-- James A. Garfield
(1831-1881) 20th President of the United States (1881)
Source: Inaugural Address, March 14, 1881.
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/James.Garfield.Quote.EB92

nobody likes to remember Garfield..

ibid.

Jennifer said...

Market up, VIX up. Hmmm..

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

The emerging markups have fallen and they can't get up.
Even JOHN E doesn't seem interested.

I have counted one DEATH OF TREASURIES comment today.
A few more and we should be at the peak of yields.

Go Bucky, Go Ts.

karen said...

morning! TBT has now taken out the June 2010 high.. which was higher than the Dec 2010 high.. it is definitely good for the 42s now.. so i wouldn't be buying TLT just yet. (unless that is just the last gasp! LOL.. because the economy is heating up, right? that's why rates are higher : )

karen said...

New low in FAZ.. guess it is going back to the 2s before the reverse split again..

AmenRa said...

karen

I'm still getting a kick out of analysts saying that since yields are up the economy must be improving. Instead of yields are up because bond traders want a higher yield if they have to buy the debt. We're a risky asset.

karen said...

new high in aapl

karen said...

watch JJC.. i think it is going to a repeat of the first week of january

karen said...

hope we get some fireworks today..

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

We're a risky asset. Not really.

Only b/c we have absorbed other people's risk. Once the risk is put back on to US corporates the picture looks quite different.

Reportedly they are rolling in cash, so perhaps the bankers would like to avail themselves of the opportunity to buy some steaming piles.

AmenRa said...

Oh my. I think TNX will hit and possibly break 37.00 today.

karen said...

"Since Nov. 3, when Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke announced the plan to buy government debt to keep the economy from falling into deflation, 10-year yields have increased about one percentage point as expectations for inflation rose. The purchases and signs that the economy is recovering have reduced demand for the safety of government debt in favor of riskier assets and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen 9.4 percent.

While the Fed’s purchases have helped boost confidence, bigger deficits and speculation that inflation may accelerate have sent yields higher, said Larry Dyer, a U.S. interest-rate strategist in New York with HSBC Holdings Plc’s HSBC Securities unit. Treasuries lost 3.7 percent since the beginning of November, including reinvested interest, after returning 8.59 percent in the first 10 months of 2010, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/fed-spending-40-on-benchmark-treasuries-as-newest-bonds-proving-cheapest.html

I-Man said...

Re: 'Stina

Yeah, she spoofed some words, but dang, gurl can sang...

And the Black Eyed Peas... the I is ODing... someone please stop them. I would have rather them wheel out the remnants of the Stones, or the Who...

Its like we have two choices for SB halftime shows:

Geriatric Classic Rock

OR

Bad Hiphop/Pop/Autotune Garbage

Take yo pick!

I-Man said...

Fireworks?

Hows about a 1.5% up day?

karen said...

I think that Christina made the Anthem too much about her.. I started to watch the video and clicked it off so I never saw the spoof.. She has a voice alright, and she went over board.. should have shown more restraint, imo.

karen said...

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/02/05/the-time-bomb-on-banks-books.aspx

karen said...

AR, look at $tnx over 10 months or so.. what do you think of the cup & handle formation ?? on the economy, of course..

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

should have shown more restraint, imo.

AGREED. WE ARE A MODEL OF RESTRAINT...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

There were no death of treasuries comments today.

...However, death of fixed income investors due to cold steel...that is another matter!

...surgeons have a saying," All bleeding eventually stops."...

karen said...

SMN.. new low.. worth a grab, i think.

karen said...

wow, do i love that saying! thanks for that : )

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

B in T

We can handle the COLD STEEL. Thanks...

A nihilist philosopher to be named later said...

We too have a saying: "Everything, eventually, stops..."

karen said...

McCollough and Bernstein on cnbc

http://www.hedgeye.com/unlocked_ideas/11670

karen said...

McCullough.. sorry.

karen said...

new low in VXX

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Sorry if I was enjoying the ribbing too much, Lefty. You are sharper than a knitting needle, and I am sure you are finding ways to make money here.

karen said...

"The 30 year yields jumped up and above the June 2009 to February 2011 resistance line. This is implying that Bernanke and the Fed have lost control over keeping rates interest rates low. In reality, they probably don't mind because this could be construed as an opportunity to inflate away current debt levels."

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

karen said...

TIP h&s seems to be playing out and looks to be headed back to dec low of 105.06 for starters..

karen said...

New Video: Brian Shepard on Friday's Trades in Big SPX and M&A Mutual Fund Monday http://mrtopstep.com/?p=2397

karen said...

some comments from Crescenzi:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/bernanke-bet-inflation-won-t-increase-as-commodities-surge-wins-investors.html

karen said...

"These are strange days on Wall Street. The less you think, the more money you make."

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204620604576116254261084350.html

karen said...

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/02/nj_senators_to_announce_new_co.html

N.J. senators, Amtrak official to announce new commuter train tunnel project across the Hudso

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

I thought that was always the trader's mantra. Don't overanalyze the market, go with the trend...

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-michigan-is-preparing-for-a-tsunami-of-financial-crises-2011-2

karen said...

$wlsh just shy of 14k..

karen said...

JJC tripped.. following my playbook so far..

Anonymous said...

dss said...

Where are all of the Gold bugs now? The dead enders? The P3 crowd?
February 7, 2011 10:45 AM

Anonymous said...

"These are strange days on Wall Street. The less you think, the more money you make."

ROFR....

I-Man said...

The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends.

(Ed Seykota, I think...)

CV said...

@Andy T

My final words on the Superbowl are this... (penned with foresight in my weekend game write-up)...

---

Per the Madden "simulation"... I want to know, with 1:20 left... Where was the 36 yard "slant" pattern to Mike Wallace for a TD that was supposed to win Pittsburgh the game...

For crying out loud... The Packers didn't even have any secondary personnel in the game at that time (so for all intents and purposes, the Steelers actually could have tried it)...

Just goes to show you the problem in relying on "simulations"... Life doesn't work that way...

And really... What DID it boil down to???

How about a 15 yard PERSONAL FOUL call on the last GB punt to Pittsburgh (which WAS, IN FACT, a penalty), that ruined their field position...

It always comes down to the zebras and stupidity by testosterone laced boyz...

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

JJC looking a lot like FXI these days. They are somewhat linked.

EEM is being held up by Brazil and Russia, but India and China have rolled over long ago. Take a look at EMB, by the way.

Anonymous said...

CV

The Super Bowl boiled down to the fumble by Steelers RB and the fact that Roethlisberger threw two picks and Rodgers none.

Green Bay's performance after losing three front line players was nothing short of astonishing.

karen said...

EMB.. even scarier the farther you go back on the timeline!!!

good find..

karen said...

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/02/07/133561265/3-ways-of-looking-at-manufacturing-in-america

Larry Bothritz said...

Last week on the tube I stated we were 30/70 on the market... wanted to clarify that meant 30% Bullish/70% Bullish.

Andy T said...

Some other thoughts on the Super Bowl...

Interesting to me that the NFC has won 3 of the last 4, but the perception remains that the AFC is a "stronger" conference.

Also, in the last three Super Bowls, you had teams win, or almost win in the case of Arizona, with no running game AT ALL.

Crazy...

Anonymous said...

AT

If you have a weak run defence, you don't make the big game.

Don't look now but Liverpool are gaining on THE HOTSPUR.

:-)

karen said...

Fitch: it will take 4 years to clear the supply of foreclosed homes and delinquent loans http://on.wsj.com/eBjJt0

karen said...

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/02/07/gop-lawmaker-put-fannie-freddie-on-budget/

CV said...

Interesting to me that the NFC has won 3 of the last 4, but the perception remains that the AFC is a "stronger" conference.

Interesting to me, likewise, that the S&P has 5 daily unfilled chart gaps since QE2 first was hinted, but the "perception" is that the rise has nothing to do with QE...

CV said...

I'm thinking stocks must just be undervalued here...

Anonymous said...

but the "perception" is that the rise has nothing to do with QE...


I thought most people said QE was the reason the markets were going up

AmenRa said...

CV

Just for you: James Altucher: 3 Reasons To Stay Bullish

ROR

CV said...

"it will take 4 years to clear the supply of foreclosed homes and delinquent loans http://on.wsj.com/eBjJt0"

A box of matches or a bulldozer could take that down to 2...

CV said...

@Amen Ra

I didn't click on that link but let me guess...

1. Because if/when equities crash again I'll look like a fool...

2. Because if/when equities crash again I'll look like a fool...

3. A & B of above...

Anonymous said...

Karen hearts Altucher.

CV said...

@Anon (1:10)

Actually what's happening is this...

It's not really a market at all... This is all just the MADDEN '11 simulation of what the video game thinks the market will do...

When someone gets to actually playing the game, we'll all find out it was all a hoax...

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Another of those ridiculous articles focusing on the DISADVANTAGES of dividend stocks..... TAX!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-ErrorProof-Portfolio-Dont-ms-4176970434.html?x=0&.v=1

No don't buy those income vehicles, look over here, buy this big pile of dog-doo, b/c there is no dividend on dog-do, so no TAX. Plus, when you take LOSSES there will also be NO TAX.

Brilliant. They really do have it all worked out, don't they?

Anonymous said...

It's not really a market at all...

Correct, it is a massive game of chicken. Or DODGEBALL.

I had actually written a screenplay about how in the CRASH, it all went to zero, so they had put up a simulation instead and just left it on.....

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

When the BERNANK stops injecting, it is P3.

P3 or QE3, take your choice. We know the answer.
Still, even if there is QE9, P3 is still out there.

AmenRa said...

AFIA2BNL

The P3 is when the hairs on your neck start twitching as you walk down a dark alley.

Bwarney Fwank said...

Is P3 like FWASH CWASH?

Bucky the Talking Currency said...

No Bwarney it's nothing like that.
It's more like being bent over for hours and...

Oh never mind.

I-Man said...

Sure looks like a market to I and I...

Otherwise, this is one sick dream.

I-Man said...

If this aint a market, then I-Man is just Crosseyed and Painless.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOOhfS1hZVo

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Every market has its latecomers, its arrivistes. As the I- says, this is a market. As one investor enters, another exits.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-buying-ratio-434x

The media are really eating at JOHN E now to get him out of bonds and they are even dissing dividend stocks, and just buy the spooz. Don't think, JOHN E, just get long the NAZZ. It's a whole new paradigm.

Actually it's just business as usual.

Anonymous said...

Yes, it's a market.
We are long US equities, and short emerging markups.

If there is a recovery, then BUCKY is going to go on a tear.
When that happens there will be consequences.

Colin said...

TLT turning up here a bit, giving back some of the Friday morning route. Neither adding nor subtracting, just watching.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

1813: US Republican Congressman Ron Paul says on his blog: "We see now the folly of our interventionist foreign policy: not only has that stability fallen to pieces with the current unrest, but the years of propping up the corrupt regime in Egypt has led the people to increase their resentment of both America and Israel! We are both worse off for decades of intervention into Egypt's internal affairs. I wish I could say that we have learned our lesson and will no longer attempt to purchase - or rent - friends in the Middle East, but I am afraid that is being too optimistic."

Jennifer said...

David Tice is on calling for Dow 6K.

Anonymous said...

Interesting they can write this without using the phrases: WOULD BE A DISGRACE TO A THIRD WORLD COUNTRY, SEEN CLEANER TOILETS IN BANGLADESH, and EMBARRASSED TO TAKE MY EUROPEAN FRIENDS ON THE TRAIN, BANANA REPUBLIC, and UNFIT FOR TRANSPORT TO A FAVELA.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20110205/tr_ac/7791478_metro_north_new_haven_line_problems_irk_new_yorkers

Rosie said...

Dave is getting bullish.

He was at 3k last time I saw him.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I take it Anonymous has ridden the north New Haven line. I will tell you what works for my dog:

Stick your head out of the window so that your lips go flubbbbbbbbbaaaaflubbbbbbbbaaa as you travel and you won't even notice the other less than stellar conditions...

Colin said...

If Barack says its time to buy, then goddamnit you get in the game!

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-07/obama-calls-on-companies-to-get-in-the-game-by-spending-cash.html

Anonymous said...

I know it is just me, but so help me she looks like she could play linebacker for the Ravens..

Anonymous said...

Who could play for the Ravens?
Christina Aguilera?

Colin, also watching the TLT situation.
Just watching.

B in T if you put your head out the train window Amtrak takes it off.
Or at least they would do if they could ever travel fast enough.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, yes, I 'spose you are correct about that. When Obama is finished we'll Amtrak all of small business, so I know things will be fine. He also said don't be afraid of regulation. Here at the mine, the regulation is so thick you can't cut it with a knife. Not even one the size of Mr. Dundee's...

karen said...

uso and uup at lows of day.. odd that!

karen said...

JJC at low of day as well..

Jennifer said...

Karen -- that's just Giles testing the suction machine again.

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/2/7/ism-commodities-survey-on-the-rise.html

Colin said...

Karen you are a link machine today. Keep em coming.

Anonymous said...

LB sighting: he is back to arm wrestling at Macro Man.

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2011/02/left-for-doom-or-right-for-normality.html

Anonymous said...

Karen likes to keep em coming.

karen said...

Sorry, but this is not a good thing: CNBC
Consumers borrow more in December as credit card debt grows for first time since 2008

karen said...

and that data only runs to the beginning of dec anyway! what would you expect !

Anonymous said...

What was the number?

Why would they want to increase debt:income?
OK, don't answer that.

I-Man said...

Anyone nail that pullback?

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Consumers borrow more in December

Let me see, they have never done that before, right?
I mean why would they borrow in December?

Show me JOHN E borrowing in January and I will be impressed.

karen said...

JW's DUMBEST post ever.. where is Ben? I don't want to suffer it alone:

It's Official: The Great Consumer Deleveraging Is Over

http://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-credit-december-2011-2

karen said...

New blog post: US consumer credit rises 6.1 bln in December http://www.forexlive.com/165154/all/us-consumer-credit-rises-6-1-bln-in-december

Jennifer said...

Demand for puts is picking up.

karen said...

i'm frustrated..

Oct was $7 Billion Total
Nov was 1.3
Dec now 6.1 ??

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Property crash stakes. Who will be first?

http://www.businessinsider.com/inequality-hong-kong-crisis-2011-2

The contendahs:
Hong Kong, China, Canada, Australia.

CV should handicap these nags.

Back at the stable:
US, UK, Japan.

Glue factory:
Ireland.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Oct was $7 Billion Total
Nov was 1.3
Dec now 6.1 ??

Noisy series. Should look at the 3 or 6mo moving average !

I-Man said...

I meant THAT pullback, lol...

;)

Anonymous said...

karen said...
i'm frustrated..

Happy to help with that....

karen said...

Nov was revised up to $2B, scratch the 1.3 above

karen said...

confirming candle on JJC.. looking identical to Jan. Pls look AR.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Some days are good for trading.
Others for fantasizing about Karen....

Still others for getting into heated brawls at other blogs.

Yawn...zzzzz

I-Man said...

This gonna be a runna...

Anonymous said...

YGTBFKM.

ECB's Mersch says ECB is able to raise rates without exiting crisis tools

These guys are CRISIS TOOLS.

CV said...

@AFI2BNL

You're not up on your alphabet...

They decided to "skip over" P3 in the market and go right to Q3...

And oh, let me guess... The DELEVERAGING of credit in December is people who have fallen off the unemployment benefit ranks, and are now using credit cards to buy food at the grocery store...

See? It all folds up into one neat package for whoever is is LONG QE & soft commodities...

CV said...

"RE" leveraging... He meant to say...

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Auctions ahoy this week, then PPI/CPI next week.

If crude stays steady, we think that we may be close to PEAK FLATION.
The spikes in the ag commodities are very important but not here.

The mini-bear market in bonds had teeth but it is almost over.
A big bumper increase in jobs for the Feb NFP is PRICED IN.
SO is a "Bottom Is IN" view on the US housing market.

Reality show begins again in the Spring.

Anonymous said...

A better day for the portfolio. We enjoyed Bruce's caricature this morning, however there are already too many genuine beggars out there.

I-Man said...

Feel like I just dodged a bullet.

CV said...

The "Jackson Hole", "elections", "Thanksgiving", "Santa Claus", "window dressing", "1st of year", "FOMC minutes", "SOTU", "day after snow days", "Groundhog Day", "Chinese New Year", and "Superbowl" rallies are all over & done with...

This is the beginning of the "Daytona 500" rally... That's CV's best guess...

Later folks!

karen said...

uso closed on the low and looks like it will break 36 tomorrow.. the trend is down on the 13/34 ema chart..

karen said...

Dow ends higher for sixth straight session, longest winning streak in three months
02/07/2011 04:01:24 PM

Anonymous said...

EEM also finished limply. Which is telling, on a Monday....

Andy T said...

I'm hoping he (JW) was being snarky with that comment about the deleveraging being over....

Andy T said...

Valerie Jarrett was on CNBC a little bit ago:

"The White House wants to work with business to create jobs."

That's going to be awesome....

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

The Bond Report 2.7.11

A quieter day in the bond markets. At the long end, mortgages were weak and the 30y finally caught a bid after reaching 4.757 today. We sense capitulation was reached this morning, as the BRIANs were busily liquidating customer positions in fixed income, but we will see what happens between now and the auctions.

Corpies: LQD 0.11%; AGG 0.04%; JNK 0.22%; HYG 0.19%
Govies: TLT 0.52%; IEI -0.08%; TIP -0.02%
Munis: IQI -0.50%; MUB 0.06%
Mortgages: MBB -0.20%
Hedgies: TBT -0.95%

We did nothing, we are still in the accumulation phase for fixed income. We have 15% AGG, 9% TLT, 9% JNK, 5% TIP, 5% LQD (43%).

Equity: 15% long (all dividends), 22% short (all EMs), added to this.

Jiff Emmelt said...

"The White House wants to work with business to create jobs."

IN CHINA. I am an expert on JOBS and EXPORTS.
I f*cking export jobs to China.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

When he loses his job it is a recession
When I lose my job it is a depression
When Obama loses his job it is a recovery...

...old Tennessee proverb..

BinT said...

Thank goodness Lefty. You still have APTPI.

Good luck tomorrow....

Anonymous said...

OMG~! Bond Slaughter!!!

30yr Bond 118.15625 +0.28125 +0.24
10yr Note 118.609375 +0.031250 +0.03
NY Gold 1351.3 +2.3 +0.17
NY Silver 29.370 +0.311 +1.07

as if..

89.255 +0.445 (+0.50%)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=PACF_TLT

ibid.

AmenRa said...

Bruce

ROTFL recovery!!

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