Friday, February 25, 2011

Morning Corner 2.25.11

New Highs New Lows






Even though the SPX and Dow closed lower there were more new highs than new lows. That might more to do with the late push in the afternoon. Dip buyers? Knife catchers? Nothing wrong with trying to fake the bullish case…not that there is anything wrong with that ;-)



Comparative Currency Performance






From 2007 (pre GFC) to present. Obviously Gold (+101.48%) has outperformed all fiat currencies. Hard to believe the Yen (+43.66%) is doing better than the Swiss Franc (+32.12%). The laggard is DXY (-8.90%).



90 Day Treasury






From what I see here the Fed will not be raising rates anytime soon. ZIRP forever.






I've uncovered an unknown Nostradamus document. It said the identities of those pictured are The Fed, Bank of England, ECB and IMF.
at

243 comments:

  1. AmenRaFebruary 25, 2011 at 8:29 AM

    I still don't know why futures are higher. Smells of desperation.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ben22February 25, 2011 at 8:40 AM

    CV,

    went to bed kind of early last night and didn't see your post, but yeah, it's def. a bromance, ROR.

    here's one of the primary issues I've considered about the Hard Asset militia is

    If you have a lot of gold, or silver, or nickels. Lets say you've got $450k of any one of those.

    you aren't very mobile

    if the shit really hits the fan, I think mobility will be important

    Maybe I've just seen too many movies and those images are stuck in my mind but in true crisis I'm not sure of many examples of where you can just stay put and not have any issues, unless maybe you are in the far northern part of Canada, or in the woods in Alaska somewhere.

    ReplyDelete
  3. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 8:41 AM

    It said the identities of those pictured are The Fed, Bank of England, ECB and IMF

    Well then "eff you" & the horse you rode in on! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  4. BinTFebruary 25, 2011 at 8:47 AM

    TBT today, Lefty?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 8:58 AM

    http://www.whenshtf.com/showthread.php?38524-US-Warns-Extreme-Food-Prices-Will-Stay

    US Warns Extreme Food Prices Will Stay

    ...Last week unleaded was 2.97. Filled up yesterday morning at 3.12. Late afternoon 3.15 at the lowest place in town...

    ...Interesting times..

    ReplyDelete
  6. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:01 AM

    @Bruce

    Grill Baby Grill!

    ReplyDelete
  7. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:02 AM

    @Bruce

    Aren't you glad that you have that "Hamstermobile"! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:02 AM

    CV:

    You should read the comments on the above post. Garden planting fools, I mean!

    for a minute I thought it was a garden site..... :)

    ReplyDelete
  9. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:11 AM

    @Bruce

    Yeah... I can't wait to see everyone put a "topsy turvy" tomato plant on their back porch...

    Yield???... Probably about a two dozen or so 3 ounce tomatoes (for the whole growing season)... (roughly 15 calories each)...

    24 X 15 = 360 calories TOTAL YIELD

    ---

    That's about enough to get you thru breakfast for one day (if you're on a diet)...

    ROR

    ReplyDelete
  10. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:12 AM

    tilapia bitchez!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:13 AM

    CV:

    We are planting a bigger garden this year too, but February is too early here. The Prius is great, and you don't have to put the 2k 220 charging system in that is required of the all electric vehicles...although that can be circumvented..but requires a lot longer charging time.

    I wasn't sure I'd like the little car, but it handles great. I filled up for 21 bucks yesterday, and the guy in the v8 truck behind me just stared at the pump when I left..made me grin..

    ReplyDelete
  12. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:17 AM

    @Bruce

    When it eventually conks out you can convert it to a planter! :-P

    ReplyDelete
  13. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:19 AM

    Looks like UPRO did a stock split...

    ReplyDelete
  14. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:19 AM

    or a hottub...

    ReplyDelete
  15. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:20 AM

    I guess it was getting too expensive for bulltards to JBTFD...

    ReplyDelete
  16. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:20 AM

    UPRO might be the worst investment possible at market turns...

    ReplyDelete
  17. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:21 AM

    good morning!! loved the morning post!! everything is up today, and nothing down lower than 1%.. we must be living in a perfect world..

    ReplyDelete
  18. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:21 AM

    IF this is a market turn...

    give me a minute on the tea leaves...

    ReplyDelete
  19. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:22 AM

    Bruce.. you don't think the market is turning do you.. JBTFD

    ReplyDelete
  20. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:22 AM

    @Bruce

    Hottub!!! Now you're talking...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5LaCZsynnQ

    ReplyDelete
  21. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:25 AM

    We had a storm with wind last night..wasn't worried until one of the neightbor's cows went flying by the bedroom window...when you live on the top of a little mountain the wind can be, uh, worrisome..

    ReplyDelete
  22. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:27 AM

    A couple of points:

    US GDP is 14.7 T
    QE2 is 0.6 T

    QE2 is therefore 4% of GDP. We have a +2.8% increase.

    So BB is masking a 1.2% deflation.
    Turning Japanese, indeed.

    ReplyDelete
  23. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:28 AM

    @ben (8:40)

    I don't see any point in "mobility"...

    Why make it harder on yourself than it already is? You put a stake in the ground and try to do the best that you can...

    If you're lucky, you can "co-op" a small group (or tribe)...

    If worse came to worse, you "Jesse James" your stash (and come back for it later)...

    ReplyDelete
  24. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:29 AM

    Completely agree with AR. ZIRP forever.

    NOBODY ESCAPES THE ZERO BOUND.
    4 or 5% GDP required to exit the event horizon.
    But gravity is too strong.....

    ReplyDelete
  25. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:29 AM

    Oh, Lefty....Karen says she loves it when you start cipherin'.....

    ReplyDelete
  26. AmenRaFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:30 AM

    AUDJPY is up while EURJPY is down. This will not be easy for the bulls. One false step and whoosh!

    ReplyDelete
  27. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:31 AM

    @Bruce

    Better "cows" than Miss Gulch!

    ReplyDelete
  28. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:32 AM

    The bond market has four alternatives:

    1) Self-sustaining recovery, front end 4%, rear end 5%
    2) Turning Japanese, front end ZIRPed, rear end 2%
    3) New Normal, more or less where we are, 1% 2y and 3% 10y.
    4) Armageddon, rear end in hyperspace.

    The bond market is pretty smart, and it is voting for 3) with a chance of 2) and a tiny probability of 1).

    ReplyDelete
  29. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:32 AM

    Amen. I agree fully with your 9:30. Many more stresses than 3 months ago...

    ReplyDelete
  30. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:35 AM

    Can we bet the trifecta, Lefty?

    ReplyDelete
  31. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:37 AM

    How about the "quinella?"

    ReplyDelete
  32. AmenRaFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:38 AM

    WFC upgraded to a conviction buy by GS.

    "Turn those machines back on!"

    ReplyDelete
  33. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:42 AM

    for ben-

    "BOB PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows"

    http://tinyurl.com/4f33kh6

    gotta roll out . . .

    ReplyDelete
  34. ben22February 25, 2011 at 9:46 AM

    Leftback,

    9:29

    would 4 or 5% GDP do it?

    Nominal GDP in Japan was over that several times in the past 20 years if I'm not mistaken, yet there they still are.

    The Zero Bound is a bottomless pit.

    I think this is part of the reason the NLY makes sense.

    ReplyDelete
  35. ben22February 25, 2011 at 9:47 AM

    I don't think Prechter is right about that ahab

    we might get close but I think the March 09 lows will hold.

    ReplyDelete
  36. bobFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:54 AM

    Good read by Bronte

    http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2011/02/small-hedge-fund-managers-lament.html

    ReplyDelete
  37. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:54 AM

    silver is looking h&sy on the 5 min and hourly.. over at finviz..

    ReplyDelete
  38. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/41764727

    Market Falling Because of Math, Not Middle East

    “It’s a bunch of servers pinging each other,” said Reggie Middleton, editor of BoomBustBlog.com. “The market nowadays is dominated by the same traders at the same five banks that went to the same business schools which taught them the same quantitative trading programs.”

    ...very acerbic

    ReplyDelete
  39. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    would 4 or 5% GDP do it?

    Only if sustained for a year or more.

    Nominal GDP in Japan was over that several times in the past 20 years if I'm not mistaken, yet there they still are.

    They only did it for one or two quarters.

    The Zero Bound is a bottomless pit.

    Correct.

    I think this is part of the reason the NLY makes sense.

    Yes. All the dull, world not ending plays make sense.

    ReplyDelete
  40. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:56 AM

    EURUSD doing enough on the down side to make me smile.
    Should help Karen take silver down too....

    (imagines K in silver panties and 5 inch heels...)

    waits for yellow card...

    ReplyDelete
  41. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:57 AM

    bob, i've gotta read that but you've gotta watch this!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iWVBF61tLI&feature=player_embedded

    ReplyDelete
  42. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 9:59 AM

    The second we go red, I'll put my red shoes up (and black french panties); but don't hold your breath..

    ReplyDelete
  43. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:02 AM

    @Bruce

    Anyway... My point was (from your 9:02)...

    9 out of 10 people can't even grow a friggin "Chia Pet"...

    ReplyDelete
  44. ben22February 25, 2011 at 10:04 AM

    Ahab,

    I will point out though that at least Prechter understands how to read sentiment data properly.

    Take note all the people saying that the big one week drop in bulls on AAII is "bullish" for stocks because it's a contrary indicator.

    The 10 week average, as he shows in that video, shows higher bulls/bear ratio than what we had at the peak in 2007 at the all time nominal highs.

    You can decide which is more important.

    ReplyDelete
  45. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:05 AM

    (holding breath......)

    ReplyDelete
  46. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:05 AM

    Take note all the people saying that the big one week drop in bulls on AAII is "bullish" for stocks because it's a contrary indicator.

    only very short term bullish....

    ReplyDelete
  47. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:06 AM

    @Bruce

    LB being the 1 in 10 who can... I've heard he has them scattered all around his flat in Manhattan! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  48. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:07 AM

    oooh.. some of us can be glad we exited EDZ when we did.. it'll be a buy again soon.

    ReplyDelete
  49. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:07 AM

    Consumer sentiment rises to three-year high: Univ. of Mich.
    02/25/2011 10:05:12 AM

    ReplyDelete
  50. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:09 AM

    I can only imagine LB having banana plants..

    ReplyDelete
  51. The BernankFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:10 AM

    Yes we have no banana (plants)

    ReplyDelete
  52. Banana BenFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:11 AM

    But we can print them as needed

    ReplyDelete
  53. ben22February 25, 2011 at 10:12 AM

    would 4 or 5% GDP do it?

    Only if sustained for a year or more.


    ROR

    Average Annual GDP from 1975-1999 in the US was 3.2% and that was during the greatest expansion of credit ever, anywhere.

    good luck to us getting to 4-5% sustained....

    ReplyDelete
  54. CVFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:13 AM

    I hear Orange County housewives are good at growing "IM"plants...

    ReplyDelete
  55. ben22February 25, 2011 at 10:14 AM

    Anon,

    10:05

    there's no statistical evidence that a one week drop in one single sentiment survey, or all of them, means anything for the short term.

    i'd suggest a look back at the 2002 and 2008 years an AAII, tell me if those large one week drops were short term bullish on those years.

    sentiment is only secondary, and the larger established trend in sentiment is the one that matters, unless you have some figures to prove otherwise.

    ReplyDelete
  56. spoonmanFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:19 AM

    Interesting: Mish on JGB's. Not with a bang, but with a wimper.

    ReplyDelete
  57. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:20 AM

    cursing the aussie right now..

    jjc in a bounce before resuming lower? i think so..making its right shoulder as a matter of fact.. of course, above 59 and i'm changing that theory..

    who was the genius that bot upro yesterday when spx was sub 1300 ?? Tepper is ridiculing us now.

    ReplyDelete
  58. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:22 AM

    http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2011/0228/investing-gary-shilling-financial-strategy-hard-times.html

    The current shock and awe over China parallels the fear and admiration of Japan in the late 1980s. Back then many Americans believed they'd soon be run out of business by Japanese firms or end up working for them.

    ReplyDelete
  59. 18February 25, 2011 at 10:27 AM

    Here's some stats b22...

    1296 is a 18, 36 and 54 multiple... just saying

    Still have a 1375 (+ or - a few) target on the major 18's.

    ReplyDelete
  60. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:28 AM

    guys.. please stop the world (but don't melt) i need to be gone for 20 min..

    thank you 18! I love it when you chime in : )

    ReplyDelete
  61. wunsaconFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:32 AM

    >> It said the identities of those pictured are The Fed, Bank of England, ECB and IMF.

    Sure it's not Reagan, Clinton, Dubya, Obama?

    Ok. How 'bout Charlie Sheen, Lindsay Lohan, Tiger Woods, and Justin Beiber?

    ReplyDelete
  62. Backhoe BillyFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:41 AM

    This week was just a little backfill before we build this pile higher!

    ReplyDelete
  63. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:45 AM

    By the way, when I sold my treasuries a day or two ago, I bought non-callable 10 year cd's at 3.7 with all of it. So, if I really thought we were headed for long-term inflation, I assure you I would not have done so. But I do keep my mind open for different ideas, and sometimes when I think people are too narrowly focused, I may argue the other side of the debate....

    That said, I will convince CV to buy one of these little Prius thingys...just wait!

    ReplyDelete
  64. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:47 AM

    I'd be all about those CDs if I had a pile of cash to put in em...

    ReplyDelete
  65. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:47 AM

    Not 10yr tho...

    ReplyDelete
  66. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:48 AM

    Have a feeling we're gonna be in for some great CD rates in the years ahead...

    ReplyDelete
  67. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:49 AM

    Trade the equity, commodity, bond, and currency markets for money, stash the money in high quality bank paper at a modest rate...

    Thats the I strategy.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:53 AM

    I-Man:

    I now like to be able to know what my income in say, two years, will be. It allows me the safety of making riskier bets if I wish and if the time comes. I wouldn't have considered this 15 years ago, but now it makes sense to me at least, as I contemplate what I'd like to do in the next 5 years or so. ..just cash flow at a rate I can live with..

    ReplyDelete
  69. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:53 AM

    That and building my farm and herd of livestock... theres a jet boat in there somewheres, and a bow.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:54 AM

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/britain-s-economy-contracts-more-than-estimated-as-boe-divide-on-remedies.html

    Britain's Economy Contracts More Than Estimated

    ...Lefty spent most of his money in the colonies...

    ReplyDelete
  71. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:54 AM

    Understood, Bruce.

    I dont doubt your ability to secure cash flow, or live comfortably modest in a valley in East Tennessee.

    ReplyDelete
  72. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 10:54 AM

    SPX 1318.89 is roughly 50% of the hi-lo last few days...

    ReplyDelete
  73. AmenRaFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:10 AM

    Anon

    The weekly 3LB mid is 1-3-1-8-1-3.

    Can't make it easy for the algos...

    ReplyDelete
  74. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:10 AM

    There is an insanely huge upside trade setting up here...

    The next meaningful pullback on the 1min chart is the one I'm going to bid.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:14 AM

    Dern Canadians!

    Exporting more cold air to Tennesse this weekend. Surely they will run out soon enough..

    ReplyDelete
  76. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:16 AM

    ...Lefty spent most of his money in the colonies...

    Karen has very expensive taste in panties....

    ReplyDelete
  77. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:17 AM

    fun and games still on! I barely missed a thing..

    'cept this: Fed takes down $7.24 billion during POMO. $23.97 billion submitted.

    ReplyDelete
  78. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:18 AM

    Effing NZT still struggling under the rubble. Poor Christchurch, my best wishes go out to the Kiwis every day, as well as my investment.

    ReplyDelete
  79. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:20 AM

    Today's POMO 7-10y.

    Tsys are fairly steady here - a 4.51 on the long bond.
    Remember we now have 4.60 as the top of our trading range.

    Nobody will short Ts until Ghaddafi is pushing up the daisies.
    Doubt we will see selling until middle of next week.

    ReplyDelete
  80. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:21 AM

    spx under 1320 is not going anywhere but down..

    the person that tweeted this may have foot in mouth by the close: "For those of you who opted to sell short the market yesterday, clamoring for it to collapse: enjoy your dickless torso this weekend."

    ReplyDelete
  81. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:22 AM

    if nzt bounces next week, you might opt out of that one.. lol! you KNOW what i am dying to say, but i won't !!

    ReplyDelete
  82. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:27 AM

    Here's the pullback...

    ReplyDelete
  83. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:28 AM

    "For those of you who opted to sell short the market yesterday, clamoring for it to collapse: enjoy your dickless torso this weekend."

    That has to be someone young and stupid. But whatever. Tools can be amusing. Not that we ourselves are short. Or Dickless.

    In fact we are Long.

    We hold NZT, and added to our core this week, but this is a bit of falling knife activity and we intend to mainly trade around the core holding. The strategy usually works b/c the yields of these divvys are eventually irresistible to value investors. Stops are in, though...!

    ReplyDelete
  84. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:31 AM

    that last ten min down in dia and spy was done on volume..

    ReplyDelete
  85. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:33 AM

    LMAO...

    Who said that, LB?

    ReplyDelete
  86. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:35 AM

    No idea, K found it on Twitter, love those 22 y-o permabulls.

    ReplyDelete
  87. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:36 AM

    okay, i-man, i-too can see a bullish set up in the works.. but, i'm not sure there are enuf gung-ho buyers at these prices.. exhaustion and precaution may win today.

    ReplyDelete
  88. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:37 AM

    The risk/reward is good...

    ReplyDelete
  89. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:38 AM

    You think this market is going to let anyone still short from yesterday out this easy?

    ReplyDelete
  90. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:38 AM

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/41763051

    Cramer: Don't Let Oil Futures Change Your Game Plan


    ..The article is typical Cramer. Don't waste your retinas...but the comment below is priceless:

    pjkdenver | Feb 24, 2011 08:24 PM ET

    Cramer definitely knows a lot, but he's also hard to trust when he has two links, one right below the other like this:

    Cramer: $4 Gas Could Lead to Double Dip
    Cramer: Don't Let Oil Futures Change Your Game Plan

    Now, that's diversified

    ReplyDelete
  91. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:41 AM

    US Will Be the World's Third Largest Economy: Citi

    http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/QID/tab/2

    I think the dude who did this research should be fired-

    let's see China and India have the largest populations on the planet, followed by the USA-

    so not a tough extrapolation based on population numbers alone- so easy a 5th grader could do it (so why not just hire a 5th grader?)

    but that makes the super broad assumption that China's and India's populations will prosper- and that all the hinterland rural folk become good middle class consumers (and all the issues that places on resources and demand)-

    I'll guess we'll have to just wait and see . . .

    ReplyDelete
  92. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:42 AM

    Getting closer...

    Just a few more jiggles...

    ReplyDelete
  93. bobFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:44 AM

    K, had to go out for a moment...

    Are you trying to tell me I can't dance?

    ReplyDelete
  94. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:46 AM

    It also assumes, let's see, that the minority Muslim population will accept little things like, well, women in the workplace or even bosses, that in China there won't be a severe disruption from, say, a population that tires of communism,......just to start.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Cold SteelFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:46 AM

    You think this market is going to let anyone still short from yesterday out this easy?

    Heh heh heh.....

    ReplyDelete
  96. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:46 AM

    Taking a shot here... might be one more stop lower tho.

    But I'll take a shot at this one just in case...

    ReplyDelete
  97. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:48 AM

    China there won't be a severe disruption from, say, a population that tires of communism

    They will be fucking sick of capitalism after the RE market crashes and takes the banks down with it. Apts in China = 100 x average salaries. Things that make you go hmmm....

    ReplyDelete
  98. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:48 AM

    As UMichigan Finds Confidence At 3 Year High, Rasmussen Says Investor Confidence Plunges To 2011 Lows http://is.gd/UjsL5f

    ReplyDelete
  99. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:50 AM

    "Not that we ourselves are short. Or Dickless."

    ...We never would accuse you of being short, Lefty.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:52 AM

    Yeah, but capitalists usually have people actually live in cities they build....

    ReplyDelete
  101. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:52 AM

    The Chinese are capitalist for the duration...

    ReplyDelete
  102. 18February 25, 2011 at 11:53 AM

    ""Taking a shot here... might be one more stop lower tho.
    But I'll take a shot at this one just in case... ""

    It is at 1314, an 18 #, going long on an 18 retrace is a 100% good trade! (54% of the time).

    ReplyDelete
  103. Nefarious B.I.D.February 25, 2011 at 11:53 AM

    King Kong ain't got nothin' on me

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkNDQD0gkAU

    ReplyDelete
  104. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:55 AM

    I-Man @ 11:52-

    qualify that broad assumption-

    unless you're joking . . .

    ReplyDelete
  105. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:55 AM

    I'll take 54%...

    :)

    ReplyDelete
  106. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:55 AM

    Economic Burn
    TOWN WITH 20K RESIDENTS IN NEW JERSEY HAS $147 MILLION IN DEBT!
    http://bit.ly/ecMnCt

    ReplyDelete
  107. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:56 AM

    Not joking at all...

    Democracy and capitalism arent going away in China.

    They have only just begun.

    ReplyDelete
  108. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:57 AM

    ...We never would accuse you of being short, Lefty.

    We are short Euro today but that's all.
    The liquidity tide is still flowing.
    Gushing, really, would be the best description.

    ReplyDelete
  109. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:58 AM

    TOWN WITH 20K RESIDENTS IN NEW JERSEY HAS $147 MILLION IN DEBT!

    UFB, you can see now why Meredith W is right and munis are a cesspool. I mean think of your local weasels and how corrupt and venal they are. Then think of them issuing a bond..... no wonder she has been savaged. She will win though.

    ReplyDelete
  110. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 11:59 AM

    I-Man-

    so forever then?

    that's funny

    I wonder if Rome thought the same thing . . .

    ReplyDelete
  111. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:01 PM

    ..its the Dickless part we're a little confused about....

    ReplyDelete
  112. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:02 PM

    Forever as far as we're concerned... until something better comes along.

    ReplyDelete
  113. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:02 PM

    BTW, NJ, NY, CT and RI have a lotta mayors and financial people with Eyetalian names, so there is no QUESTION about any shred of criminality associated with those members of UPSTANDING FAMILIES.

    Avoid MUNIS. Avoid like the plague. Fantastic yields will be the reward for your patience, cynicism and suspicion.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:02 PM

    Meredith for SecTreas....

    ReplyDelete
  115. Meredith WhitneyFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:03 PM

    If you can see one cockroach, there are always thousands....

    ReplyDelete
  116. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:03 PM

    NZT surging off long-dated support !!!

    Just needed to cheer myself on.

    ReplyDelete
  117. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:04 PM

    Boning Meredith was about as fun as reading the WSJ...

    ReplyDelete
  118. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:04 PM

    "its the Dickless part we're a little confused about.."

    On twitter, ZH has brad pitt's torso as their icon. It is more than a little weird.

    ReplyDelete
  119. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:07 PM

    so . . .the communist party lays down its arms and walks away peacefully?

    and everyone's happy?

    no civil war, Tibet doesn't secede, Communist party doesn't start killing unarmed demonstrators?

    or are you under the impression they are a democracy now?

    ReplyDelete
  120. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:08 PM

    gotta roll out again- all be good

    ReplyDelete
  121. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:09 PM

    oh, no! copper!! JJC above 59.. damn, damn, damn

    ReplyDelete
  122. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:12 PM

    Nomura: eurozone debt issuance next week will be biggest this year (€29bn). Overwhelmingly core, not periphery - bar one €3bn Spain auction

    ReplyDelete
  123. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:14 PM

    Lovely chart. You can see the rally in Ts during the summer (leveraged HF entering) and the subsequent retrace (leveraged HF leaving).

    http://dshort.com/charts/Treasury-Yield-Snapshot.html?treasuries-FFR-since-2007

    Crescenzi was on cnbc this morning - says look for govies in EMs where risk is actually compensated. In fact if global economy slows, yields may fall so you get appreciation as well as a honking yield. The ones he has in mind I am sure are Brazilian govies at 12.5%. We like this idea. Bear in mind that some EMs will blow up so don't go EMB.

    ReplyDelete
  124. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:15 PM

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/manhattan/perv_don_shmear_me_GzYV0fJYoWleFsSTrQyaJK#ixzz1EzRnEfbN

    Billionaire Jeffrey Epstein: I'm a sex offender, not a predator

    ReplyDelete
  125. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:15 PM

    Nefarious-

    great clip! Ahab has now left the building . . .

    ReplyDelete
  126. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:21 PM

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/aig-says-risk-of-losses-has-increased-on-46-6-billion-muni-bond-portfolio.html

    ROFR. AIG may have to take write-downs.

    Can't we just kill them? A lot cheaper.

    ReplyDelete
  127. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:27 PM

    Can't we just fire everyone at AIG and just hire back the ones we want?

    ...Wait, wrong post...

    ReplyDelete
  128. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:33 PM

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41723432/ns/business-world_business/

    'I won't pay' movement spreads across Greece

    "ATHENS, Greece — They blockade highway toll booths to give drivers free passage. They cover subway ticket machines with plastic bags so commuters can't pay. Even doctors are joining in, preventing patients from paying fees at state hospitals.

    Some call it civil disobedience. Others a freeloading spirit. Either way, Greece's "I Won't Pay" movement has sparked heated debate in a nation reeling from a debt crisis that's forced the government to take drastic austerity measures — including higher taxes, wage and pension cuts, and price spikes in public services."


    .....hmmmmm...let's see now. Here in Bernakeville, taxes will have to go up soon and austerity measures WILL be introduced...(See Britain).......hmmmmmmm....

    ReplyDelete
  129. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:36 PM

    you know, LB, AIG weekly chart bears a striking resemblance to NZT weekly.

    ReplyDelete
  130. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:37 PM

    is this a slow motion day for anyone else??

    ReplyDelete
  131. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:38 PM

    Compared to the last couple of trading sessions, yes indeed.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Bruce in TennesseeFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:39 PM

    What would John Galt do.....?

    ReplyDelete
  133. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:42 PM

    jjc is really something on various time charts! as long as it stays below 59.15 it's bearish, i think..

    ReplyDelete
  134. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:43 PM

    Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel says the key to the current market correction is oil. http://j.mp/h0lBtZ

    ReplyDelete
  135. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:44 PM

    K

    http://www.forexlive.com/169503/all/aud-copper-moving-hand-in-hand-again-trendline-resistance-tested

    ReplyDelete
  136. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:46 PM

    Heavy buying of NZT began at 7.68, the December low.
    We were in there.... nice to see charts working.

    NZ had an quake. NZT has a decent business in a sound country.
    AIG are pillocks and thieves and are owned by taxpayers.

    We would love EEM 46 next week and then short the piss.

    ReplyDelete
  137. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:46 PM

    Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel says the key to the current market correction is oil.

    Amazing insight !!!! ROTFLMAO....

    ReplyDelete
  138. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:47 PM

    Siegel - fuckwit.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Mrs SiegelFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:47 PM

    Be nice to my Jeremy. He's a good boy.

    ReplyDelete
  140. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:49 PM

    Crude Oil 97.21 -0.07 -0.07
    Natural Gas 3.974 +0.102 +2.63
    Corn 722.00 +25.50 +3.67
    Soybeans 1373.00 +43.75 +3.30
    30yr Bond 121.75000 +0.21875 +0.18
    10yr Note 120.046875 +0.234375 +0.20
    NY Gold 1407.4 -8.4 -0.60
    NY Silver 33.000 -0.180 -0.56
    http://www.ino.com/

    Fixxy,

    re: NZT

    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NZT&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

    that Chart looks like G*rbage, no?

    and, what's up with that weak-a** Options Chain?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=NZT+Options

    AAIP

    ReplyDelete
  141. Cold SteelFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:50 PM

    You know how I please you
    I am here to SQUEEZE YOU.

    ReplyDelete
  142. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:51 PM

    maybe there is a god: Saudi raises oil output as Libyan exports disrupted http://yhoo.it/gsS06R

    ReplyDelete
  143. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:52 PM

    Marky,

    Go back and look at the DF chart before it bottomed.
    That was one of our best falling knives of all time. (+35%)
    All we needed was a call to TEPPER. LOL.

    He has to be looking at this.
    Trade in front of the whales (near the bottom).
    Not in front of the steamrollers (at the top).

    ReplyDelete
  144. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:53 PM

    maybe there is a god

    There must be since you are with us.

    also, there is beer.. right I-Man..?

    ReplyDelete
  145. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:54 PM

    anon at 12:44, i know! everyone is cursing the aussie today.. some are rethinking their short calls.. quite perplexing all in all!

    ReplyDelete
  146. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 12:55 PM

    No Jah, know fear.

    Know Jah, no fear.

    ReplyDelete
  147. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:00 PM

    okay.. gotta focus on dto now.. as long as it holds 51.. i can make out a bullish pattern into today's close..

    ReplyDelete
  148. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:04 PM

    Massive snoozer. In bonds especially.

    Next week we will have some fun.

    PMI and PENDING HOMES - MONDAY
    ISM - TUESDAY
    ADP - WEDNESDAY
    CLAIMS - THURSDAY
    NFP - FRIDAY

    Plus the fallout from Ireland... EURUSD negative?

    All in all, a chance of some DOLLAR POSITIVE and BOND NEUTRAL to NEGATIVE data later in the week. The week after has 3y, 10y and 30y auctions. So we would be sellers next week at some point and then buyers at the auctions.

    ReplyDelete
  149. bobFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:04 PM

    AUD keeps bumping along overhead resistance, very hard to make a bear case on it, technically

    ReplyDelete
  150. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:06 PM

    http://finviz.com/

    Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
    EUR/USD 1.3756 -0.0046 -0.33%
    USD/JPY 81.78 -0.13 -0.16%
    GBP/USD 1.6099 -0.0039 -0.24%
    5-Year Treasury 2.173 -0.013 -0.59%
    10-Year Treasury 3.431 -0.007 -0.20%
    30-Year Treasury 4.522 -0.013 -0.29%
    ibid.

    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLT

    91.95

    TLT, to me, still, looks good..any dissenters?

    ReplyDelete
  151. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:07 PM

    unless AUD is a rising wedge.. i can make that case.

    ReplyDelete
  152. bobFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:08 PM

    MEH

    Looking at ZB, there is a range that was in place before the dump, we are near the top of that now. Would be adding near the bottom of that range, but not here.

    ReplyDelete
  153. bobFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:10 PM

    K

    Look at a REALLY long chart of the AUD, the 2010 yearly close was above major trend line resistance.

    ReplyDelete
  154. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:10 PM

    I want to see the long bond (ZB) rally in synch with the equities and the USD before I get anymore interested in the bonds.

    ReplyDelete
  155. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:11 PM

    RE DTO, look @ WTI last 4 months... holy mother chicken!

    ReplyDelete
  156. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:11 PM

    Why short AUD? Its the strongest dog of the pack...

    The EUR is the dog.

    ReplyDelete
  157. bobFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:12 PM

    I

    agreed.

    ReplyDelete
  158. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:14 PM

    Let bonds come to you. There are plenty of shorts out there.
    TLT may end up forming a smooth gorgeously rounded bottom.

    Like.... like.... well, you know.

    ReplyDelete
  159. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:16 PM

    Here comes AT's ES 1320...

    ReplyDelete
  160. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:17 PM

    you short when there's a peak sillies.. lol..looks like it peaked in dec on a monthly chart to me and this was the bounce month.

    anyway, it's a tell for us equities and the dollar so i have to watch it and accept what it does.

    ReplyDelete
  161. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:17 PM

    i'm just praying that copper is a bull trap.

    ReplyDelete
  162. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:21 PM

    If the market is playing nice, it wont prison rape the shorts lining up at ES 1320/ YM 12142...

    But if it doesnt... ugh, its gonna be pain.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Cold SteelFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:24 PM

    Prison rape is just another word for Bromance....

    ReplyDelete
  164. Cold SteelFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:24 PM

    Just sharing the LOVE

    ReplyDelete
  165. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:24 PM

    AmenRa said...
    I still don't know why futures are higher. Smells of desperation.

    February 25, 2011 8:29 AM

    ...The falling knife. She is a chainsaw...

    ReplyDelete
  166. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:25 PM

    ISM New York says delaying the release of February report that was scheduled for Monday. Larry Yun hired to double check numbers

    ReplyDelete
  167. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:26 PM

    right, thanks for the feedback..

    was thinking that the TLT Chart was, still, 'constructive'...

    AAIP

    ReplyDelete
  168. bobFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:26 PM

    K

    Not long AUD, and could agree with you, as it seems everyone did at the beginning of the year.

    The former top trend was from 12/96 to 7 2007

    It's now right at about 1.022, probably a ton of stops above 1.018.

    Another (bear) wild card is the bank, they have intervened before, and they, apparently, don't fuck around.

    ReplyDelete
  169. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:26 PM

    Scott Bleier
    $$ DOW correction was 355pts or 2.8% over 18.5 trading hours. Retracement is 165pts. or 1.4% over 7.5 hrs.--So far...as of 1:30 Friday

    ReplyDelete
  170. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:29 PM

    On the left, in the black corner... a tag team....

    The FED, with a massive liquidity hose.
    TEPPER and other WHALES.
    COLD STEEL

    In the red corner,

    MISTER SHORTY

    ding-ding... SECONDS OUT !

    ReplyDelete
  171. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:30 PM

    hey, what happened to 1320 ?

    ReplyDelete
  172. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:33 PM

    the TLT Chart was, still, 'constructive'...

    Indeed. ZROZ too. One could hold some Ts and sleep soundly here. We are holding AGG, TLT and LQD with a bit of JNK.

    The opportunities to ADD will be LEGION, Marky. Also great trading opps in ZROZ and TLT calls lie ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Cold SteelFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:34 PM

    I do my best work in the last hour, Mistress.
    Sometimes all I have to do is thrust forcefully for 5-10 minutes.

    ReplyDelete
  174. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:34 PM

    LB.. do you think the 30 year will trade back toward a 3.5% yield then.. below our other esteemed doctor's new CD?

    ReplyDelete
  175. AmenRaFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:34 PM

    Anon

    The image of trying to catch falling chainsaws is hilarious.

    ReplyDelete
  176. bobFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:35 PM

    LB

    I like jennifer's idea of buying puts on the inverse ETF too, TBT.

    ReplyDelete
  177. Brian SackFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:36 PM

    A nutjob running around killing his own citizens. Possibility of civil war in that country. Oil near $100. Stocks up.

    Not very bearish, is it? The reason?

    Have you seen the size of my fire hose?

    ReplyDelete
  178. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:36 PM

    Charles Gasparino
    Financial analyst Mike Mayo says Citi CEO Vikram Pandit broke federal law.

    ReplyDelete
  179. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:37 PM

    China supplier health hazards, underage worker concerns for Apple
    Posted by Suzanne Deffree on February 23, 2011


    Sure, you want that iPad, and you know that it retails at about $499 and that, according to IHS iSuppli, it is built at about a $250 bill of materials, but what’s its real cost?

    According to workers at an Apple supplier, popular touch devices are costing them their health. And separately, according to Apple, some suppliers are employing underage workers to build parts for its devices.

    Reuters reported this morning that Chinese workers employed by Wintek at a factory making touch screens on contract for Apple have urged the iPad, iPhone, and iPod maker to help them in getting their grievances over chemical poisoning addressed by their employer.

    Wintek, which makes touch screens for Apple, used hexyl hydride, also called n-hexane, from May 2008 to August 2009, but stopped after discovering it was making workers ill. Workers say their health concerns have not been address as thoroughly as they deem necessary and are appealing to Apple for help.

    On top of this, our friends at EE Times report that Apple has a growing problem with its Chinese suppliers using workers under the legal age of 16 years. EE Times reports that Apple is aware of the problem, is not OK with the practices, and in some cases has required suppliers at fault to take corrective action.

    These news items are two more examples of poor treatment of employees and questionable labor policies in China. By far, Apple and it suppliers are not the only companies impacted. Should Apple and other US-based companies that source from partners in China be held responsible, either ethically or legally, for suppliers’ policies and actions? Understanding that the US labor system is far from perfect, does news like this impact your view on work with companies in countries with lower employment standards and verifications? Voice your opinions below.
    http://mobile.edn.com/blog/Now_Hear_This_/40570-China_supplier_health_hazards_underage_worker_concerns_for_Apple.php

    AAIP

    ReplyDelete
  180. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:39 PM

    30y will ultimately go lower than anyone can believe, except for Gary Shilling. Right now a 4.33-4.60% range in place, next one up is 4.60-4.80 and the one below is 4.08-4.33%.

    ReplyDelete
  181. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:41 PM

    Let's say we are printing a 1.0 GDP by Q3 or 4.
    If that's the case, then a 3.5% 30y is probably right on the button.

    A real double dip by Q1 2012 and we see a 2 handle. Easy.

    ReplyDelete
  182. bobFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:41 PM

    Someone else like TBT puts too.

    1700 june 28 puts traded today.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TBT&m=2011-06

    Ben, what was that about big volume moves on options?

    ReplyDelete
  183. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:41 PM

    ES high so far was 1319.50...

    Got a feeling they will let it pullback one more time about 15 YM pts and then they will gun the crap out of it.

    (I closed my long already, will reenter on the pullback mentioned above... the first folks to buy in a second ago will get screwed...)

    ReplyDelete
  184. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:43 PM

    Summer will be a nasty sausage making exercise where the market goes in with a lot of high P/E growth stocks and comes out with a lot of rotation into nice juicy dividend stocks leaving wounded egos and deflated multiples in the energy and commodity, tech and retail spaces.

    ReplyDelete
  185. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:44 PM

    believe it or not, i see a bullish set up on the usd hourly chart..

    ReplyDelete
  186. A fixed income analyst to be named laterFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:46 PM

    Can't beat long dated TBT puts.

    Bond yields fall, HFs flee the burning theater, TBT annihilated.
    Bond yields steady, TBT decays.
    Bond yields wiggle incessantly, TBT death by a thousand cuts.

    New Normal and Double Dip back on MSM radar screens....

    ReplyDelete
  187. bobFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:48 PM

    The bronte blog I posted earlier could be distilled down to-

    long spx (or maybe better dow), short rus

    Not new, but he goes through the methodology.

    http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2011/02/small-hedge-fund-managers-lament.html

    ReplyDelete
  188. Mr MarketFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:48 PM

    DXY UP
    Stocks UP
    Treasuries UP

    It's MORNING IN AMERICA.

    ReplyDelete
  189. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:51 PM

    bob, i did read that and thot there were some interesting bits..

    ReplyDelete
  190. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:55 PM

    It's a bit boring K. Can you entertain us?

    ReplyDelete
  191. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 1:58 PM

    http://finance.yahoo.com/video/cnbc-22844419/-game-of-chicken-in-oil-markets-24315395;_ylt=Ai5.TJdvN05ELU49TQKEoz27YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTExaW05ZDBnBHBvcwM2BHNlYwN2aWRlb3MEc2xrA2dhbWVvZmNoaWNrZQ--

    As though it is ever anything else.... LOL !!

    ReplyDelete
  192. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 2:04 PM

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/yellen-says-fed-could-use-communication-to-affect-easing-unemployment.html

    ReplyDelete
  193. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 2:09 PM

    oh, i'm so sad.. the dollar is breaking down out of my little dream scenario..

    ReplyDelete
  194. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 2:14 PM

    the dollar is breaking down out of my little dream scenario..

    The dollar isn't usually in my dream scenario.

    ReplyDelete
  195. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 2:14 PM

    Sometimes it's almost as though it is just you and me....
    Isn't that romantic?

    ReplyDelete
  196. Cold SteelFebruary 25, 2011 at 2:15 PM

    Don't forget about me !

    ReplyDelete
  197. I-ManFebruary 25, 2011 at 2:16 PM

    Havent bit yet...

    It was hard not to go after that last one... but my target was not hit.

    Might regret not taking it back at 12118...

    ReplyDelete
  198. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 2:17 PM

    $$ BANG. another big buy program--out of nowhere! 2:10pm
    5 minutes ago

    sure enuf.. i don't know what he's looking at exactly but he always calls 'em

    ReplyDelete
  199. karenFebruary 25, 2011 at 2:19 PM

    fxa tagged 102!

    ReplyDelete
  200. AnonymousFebruary 25, 2011 at 2:19 PM

    Trash rally today.

    IWM leads QQQQ leads SPY leads DIA.
    Don't bend over in front of the steamroller.

    ReplyDelete