ES (daily info)new high 1341.75
trend=up (not for long)
high =1341.75
rev= 1327.75; mid= 1334.75
Turnaround Tuesdays have been laid to rest. New phrase is Tornado Tuesdays. With gold and oil going parabolic this had to eventually happen.
Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)new low 42.697
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 42.697
rev= 49.948; mid= 45.823
It's not so much that the price of gold has risen. It's that the price of silver is rising much faster.
This seems appropriate for what should be happening today...
Colin:
ReplyDeleteMorningstar rates Hussman 2 stars out of 5 for the last 5 years. 4 starts out of 5 for the last 10 years. Overall rating is average...3 out of 5. And he has underperformed the DOW for the last 10 years. Er, minus fees.
...I will hammer points like this home here whether it is popular or not. Do your homework. We all like his fund column because we can go there at the start of the week, and know that what he writes won't have any spin.
...But if you want a good growth fund, there are many, many better choices...
...Look it up yourself.
Karen
ReplyDeleteGold and silver off their highs. Figures.
When the Gold-Silver ratio hits 15 or 16, trade your silver pieces in for some gold...
ReplyDeleteMy gift to you...
morning!! ha, ha CV..
ReplyDeleteWal-Mart CEO 'disappointed' by quarterly U.S. sales; retailer pares capital-spending plan
02/22/2011 07:09:38 A
And Bergdorf just sent me an email: Season's Best Handbags under $1000
LOL! the purse thing always has me in amazement..
Crude Oil 96.60 +1.21 +1.27
ReplyDeleteNatural Gas 3.947 -0.013 -0.33
Corn 720.25 -2.75 -0.38
Soybeans 1381.0 -35.5 -2.58
30yr Bond 120.00000 +0.31250 +0.26
10yr Note 119.59375 +0.53125 +0.45
NY Gold 1404.0 -3.0 -0.21
NY Silver 33.270 -0.600 -1.77
http://www.ino.com/
"...This is because “glyphosate stimulates the growth of fungi and enhances the virulence of pathogens.” [Image] In the last 15-18 years, the number of plant pathogens has increased, he told the Non-GMO Report. “There are more than 40 diseases reported with use of glyphosate, and that number keeps growing as people recognize the association (between glyphosate and disease).”
ReplyDeleteIn his undated letter to the USDA, Huber highlighted “the escalating frequency of infertility and spontaneous abortions over the past few years in US cattle, dairy, swine, and horse operations.” He reported that spontaneous abortions occurred in nearly half the cattle where high concentrations of the pathogen were found in their feed. Huber notes that the wheat “likely had been under weed management using glyphosate.”
Other Research Supports Huber’s Warning
..."
http://www.activistpost.com/2011/02/scientists-warn-of-link-between.html
MONster
AAIP
"Wal-Mart CEO 'disappointed' by quarterly U.S. sales; retailer pares capital-spending plan"
ReplyDelete---
Probably because they don't sell any SEEDS in Q4...
Wait until Q1... That's all people are buying anymore :-)
Bruce, are you buying the dip? getting your DOD back? you know we will be green in another 30 min..
ReplyDelete$spx didn't even get to 1320.. JBTFD quickly!!
ReplyDeleteanyone looking for U$D 150-200/Oil ?
ReplyDeleteby June ?
ibid.
Andy's s&p charts from yesterday are ever so pertinent today! 1325.. amazing. and didn't break..
ReplyDeletehttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_SI.H11.E
ReplyDeleteArgent
33.305, down from 34+, up from ~32.50..
Low 1325.10
ReplyDeletehttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_INX
as I've said, before, AT is the best I've seen at "the Wave thing"..
AAIP
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/bank-of-america-doubles-write-down-on-cards-to-20-3-billion/?src=busln
ReplyDeleteArgent...
ReplyDeleteGood band!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJ_UuPH3cyw
LOL!! not that data matters anyway: NAR examining economists' concerns that it has (accidentally) overstated sales by 10-20% during the downturn http://on.wsj.com/dOJ8nM
ReplyDeleteIn similar news...
ReplyDeleteThe S&P has 'accidentally' risen 33% in the past 6 months since the announcement of QE2...
In other similar news...
ReplyDeleteThere have 'accidentally' been revolutions and overthrows of regimes in the Middle East this past month...
Much of it having to do with food costs 'accidentally' rising.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteI proved yesterday, without a shadow of a doubt, that Hussman has not underperformed any of the domestic indexes, so you can hammer whatever you want home, but I got news for you, "gramps"... it aint gonna make it so. This isn't about being popular, it's about being right. Hussman's growth fund through January 2011 has most certainly returned 6.68% per year on average since inception, if the DOW has done better than that 6.68%, by trading at 10,593 on 6/29/2001 and now trades at 12,318, I'd need a lesson on how that math works. It appears you are a few thousand dow points off.
That you are still here saying that after it was pointed out to you in detail yesterday that you were not reading the Yahoo chart correctly and this also means you don't know how mutual fund prices work when they pay a dividend or capital gain....it's telling.
And also, I'd suggest you figure out how morningstar star ratings are developed as well, as if they tell you anything about how good or bad a fund is. Here's a secret, Fidelity Magellan was a 5 star fund when I started this job.
If this is me pissing you off again...well, this time, I tried.
And just to grind it in a little more for you....
1. JH is not a "growth fund" he's a long/short fund but M-Star doesn't track enough long-shorts because they don't follow hedge funds and so he gets lumped in to growth, but I wanted to see if your claim of
"But if you want a good growth fund, there are many, many better choices.."
had any truth to it. Well, I asked my morningstar tool how many Large growth funds out of all funds have a better annual average return of 6.68% over the last ten years.
Answer: 11
I guess 11 out of thousands of large cap funds in the space could be considered "many many" ....
CV
ReplyDeleteIt was an accident.
They should have eaten cake. Or Cheerios.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteNot sure what numbers you're looking at either...Hussman's pretty handily outperformed the DOW over all but the short term.
Silver has 'accidentally' gone from a March 2008 'bubble' to $34 (as of yesterday high)... Despite the 2008 'margin induced' drop in commodities...
ReplyDeleteGold has 'accidentally' gone from $1000 (march '08) to $1400...
XLF has 'accidentally' gone from $38 (May '07)... to $6... and is back up to $16...
Bucky is lower...
---
INFLATION in PHYSICAL...
DEFLATION in paper...
Saudi Oil Minister: $70-80 Is Fair Oil Price
ReplyDeleteBy Jamie Coleman || February 22, 2011 at 15:13 GMT
Kudos to the Saudis for trying to calm world energy markets rather than whipping up hysteria, which they could easily do on a day like today. They earlier aid they have more than enough crude to make up for any Libyan disruption…
I forgot to type that the BUBBLE high in silver in March 2008 was $20...
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteso it appears the Saudis can "print" oil just like the bernank can print money...
I wonder if they're going to drop all that oil from helicopters?
Crikey
ReplyDeleteEngland chasing 292 in the World Cup against... the Netherlands.
It's going to be a squeaker....
From BBC HumanPlanet.. the most enthralling, captivating clip I have ever seen:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=2HiUMlOz4UQ&vq=large
"....how many Large growth funds out of all funds have a better annual average return of 6.68% over the last ten years.
ReplyDeleteAnswer: 11 ..."
is it, just, me, or is that f****** 'Criminal'?
AAIP
@karen
ReplyDeleteThat was a cool clip...
No way ANYONE lives to survive another day though without the benevolence of THE BERNANK & OBAMA...
ror
yay! TLT back above 90!
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteIs that criminal?
What are you talking about?
It's exactly what you should expect, it's the worst decade in stock market history, the whole mutual fund industry is so saturated how could it be any other way??? Where did this notion come from on this site recently that makes people think there are all these money managers, especially in mutual funds, that are or should be killing it over the last decade??? Worst decade ever means check your expectations at the door, in 90% of cases, and as you can plainly see, even when you are top 10%, as Hussman is, people still want more....
I forgot to respond to your comment the other day too about thinking mutual fund performance was on purpose
It's not, as if any fund manager or company is trying to underperform, I don't even know why people would think that or even consider it. Mutual fund companies don't benefit in any way at all from shitty performance, ask people that work at Putnam how a 100 year old business can nearly be destroyed by a few awful funds. I'd state with 100% confidence that they are all trying very hard to be the best in class with each type of fund they run. Why do you think manager turnover is so high?
$tyx and $tnx.. is the turn really in?
ReplyDeletetlt needs to retake 91..
I'm going to put the lawyer hat back on here...its a little dusty. I think the big issue that ties the most recent argument all together is the concept of fiduciary duty. If Bruce wants to go "all in" on UPRO based on his own personal decision, that's fine. If it works out, good for him. If he happens to be "all in" SKF the afternoon that the SEC bans short selling in all financials and he wakes up to discover an entire year's worth of hard work up in smoke, (oh wait, that was me) there won't be anyone calling to complain, or threatening a lawsuit (except maybe my darling husband.) Risks that educated people choose to take with their own money are perfectly acceptable. Risks that hedge funds take with money freely given by accredited investors are deemed legally acceptable. Risks taken by mutual funds are subject to a poorly defined fiduciary duty, which has devolved to a defacto comparison against a mediocre benchmark and comparison against the industry at large.
ReplyDeleteBen, you are so ON today! I love it!
ReplyDeletePirates Kill Four Hostages on U.S. Yacht, U.S. Military Says http://bloom.bg/dRoSJn
ReplyDeletemore details:
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/feb/22/4-american-hostages-killed-pirates-us-says/
FXE down!
ReplyDeleteThe JBTFD crowd slowing roasting in a deep BBQ pit...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJqM2tFOxLQ&feature=player_embedded
ReplyDeleteto peep a snip of Alan Grayson questioning a weasel-ly POS, said "Inspector General", on FedRes 'bailouts' of, exactly, "Whom?"
~~
McB,
to be clear, I wasn't being Literal, in either Case..
but, to me, it has to do with the Structure of, most, MutFunds, in general (long-only)...
there's more, of course, but, it isn't, really, that Important..
LSS: if (p/sh)eep want to be (di-)vestors, that's fine by me..
AAIP
"...Risks taken by mutual funds are subject to a poorly defined fiduciary duty, which has devolved to a defacto comparison against a mediocre benchmark and comparison against the industry at large...", from J-, above
ReplyDeleteis a big part of it, the 'Marketplace of Understanding', surrounding the Topic, is feeble, at best, and built to stay that way..
the Compensation structure , for these 'Funds', is skewed toward Rewarding 'Failure'/'Ignorance'..
"% of AUM" is f****** B******* ..
to say Nothing of the fact that the 'beneficiaries' are, actively, S****** out of their Proxy(-ies)...
AAIP
Grayson....gone
ReplyDeleteBucky doesn't seem to have much get up and go still...
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeletewhat you are seeing displayed on this very site is why most funds are long only....think it through. It's called protecting yourself from lawsuits which is all compliance in this industry is about. it's ok to be bullish and wrong in this world, it is NOT ok to be bearish and wrong. So, most shops just eliminate that potential. Why do you think Hussman doesn't work at Fidelity, you think he wouldn't make more money there?
Also, Alan Grayson his own self, is a weasel.
Karen
ReplyDeleteThis is for the pirates: http://i57.photobucket.com/albums/g220/tightgrip/4v8tf1t.gif
...The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index fell in December from November in all but one of the 20 cities it tracks. The 20-city index declined 1 percent.
ReplyDeleteThe only market to see a gain was Washington.
Eleven of the markets hit their lowest point since the housing bust, in 2006 and 2007: Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Ore., Seattle and Tampa, Fla.
The damage from the real estate bubble now spreads well beyond the Sun Belt, where new homes cropped up at a frantic pace during the mid-2000s. In many places, prices are expected to keep falling for at least the next six months.
"Unlike the 2006 to 2009 period when all cities saw prices move together, we see some differing stories around the country," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's.
Some of the worst declines are in cities hit hard by foreclosures and high unemployment, including Detroit, Phoenix and Tampa. Many people are holding off buying or selling homes because they fear the market hasn't hit bottom yet.
A large number of homes that aren't selling are contributing to a second wave of price declines since the boom years. Many of them have been vacant for months.
In December, prices fell for the sixth straight month and for the eighth time in the past 11 months. Foreclosures are also expected to increase as the year goes forward.
"There's just way too many homes out there relative to demand and we're not going to see that change anytime soon," said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist for MFR Inc....
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68976728406790
spoonman.. uup disappointing.. but at least fxe is red and redder now..
ReplyDeleteMcB,
ReplyDeletethis: "...It's called protecting yourself from lawsuits which is all compliance in this industry is about..."
while Truue, is part of "...the 'Marketplace of Understanding', surrounding the Topic, is feeble, at best, and built to stay that way..
the Compensation structure , for these 'Funds', is skewed toward Rewarding 'Failure'/'Ignorance'..."
AAIP
this is so creepy!! Erin Callan’s Boyfriend Invites You To Step Inside Their Love Shack
ReplyDeletehttp://bit.ly/eZGdFV
second link with more fotos and info..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41669012
The overnight move down in the ESH11 was "ominous" looking....though, tough to be really confident on silly 5min overnight charts.
ReplyDeleteThis could be the "moment."
heh heh.
Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
ReplyDeleteEUR/USD 1.3663 -0.0012 -0.09%
USD/JPY 82.94 -0.19 -0.23%
GBP/USD 1.6121 -0.0103 -0.63%
5-Year Treasury 2.178 -0.096 -4.22%
10-Year Treasury 3.489 -0.1 -2.79%
30-Year Treasury 4.611 -0.087 -1.85%
http://finviz.com
worth a skim.. tho it's wrong, laughing..
ReplyDeleteHome Depot Versus Wal-Mart: Two Reads on the Economy (HD, WMT, LOW, COST, TGT) http://bit.ly/egFBnW
HYG can't break 92! bummer!
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeletenah, I don't completely agree with you. if you charge a % of assets as most of these funds do, then the better you do the more assets you attract the higher your income goes, in fact if you are really good you can lower the fee over time and still make much more money as many mutual funds have done. the worse you do, the lower the amount of AUM as more people take money out, your income goes down and probably way down as all funds have a large number of fixed expenses on top of trading costs and it is likely you as the manager are then fired by the parent company or just all out fired by your investors, the fund gets so small due to w/d's that it doesn't exist anymore. This happens ever year to many funds.
If anyone has provided a snow job on the comp side it is Vanguard....yeah, Vanguard, as if their fund people aren't getting paid. Funny how huge they got so enormous advertising being "cheap" as if a cheap index fund was your answer the last 10 years. They've brainwashed a lot of folks by telling them that no manager actively operating in markets can add any value. Who cost folks more the last ten years...Vanguard telling people no load indexes were the holy grail, or the mutual fund managers that underperformed the DOW....it's debatable.
I'm curious, in your opinion why is charging a percentage of assets under management way to encourage failure?
I do find this extremely important, which is why I'm continuing on.
England beat Netherlands by 6 wickets
ReplyDeleteI am visiting Treasury shorts today. Are you feeling me?
ReplyDeleteThank goodness!
ReplyDeleteEngland can still beat the Dutch.
But not by much...
@karen (11:41)
ReplyDeleteWhy is that wrong?
FYI... In '10, I probably spent over $10 grand at Home Depot...
Probably less than $1,000 at WalMart (mostly food, beer, pool supplies, and a few platic storage bins & trash cans)...
So if CV is representative of consumer behavior, then I'm not surprised by the results...
Is that a yellow card for karen?
ReplyDeletewe are enjoying the evil Knievel show today...esp in FXI.
ReplyDeleteWe are massively short FXI AND EEM so there is nothing not to like.
ReplyDeleteChet, i disagree with this: "We have Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) reporting earnings next week, and the theory would imply that if the higher-end and growth markets are doing better then Costco is picking up slack from Wal-Mart. Ditto for Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT), which reports earnings in just two days."
ReplyDeletei do not believe that growth is picking up and the higher end stores are benefiting.. i believe retail is pinched across the board.. margins have been slashed.. saks/neiman marcus competing with discounters like gilt.com and j.crew offers 20% off time and time again.. i am inundated with sales and deals from every retailer i follow on line.. (except lulu! LOL.)
McB,
ReplyDeletelet me clear, ~it's All BS . esp. EMH, or any derivative of it..
"Investment Pools" have, always, been about Control.
they are, at their Heart, anti-Republican (u kno, the kind of Political System this Country once was.."Republic")
Charlie Merrill should be 'dug up' and hung in effigy..
and, really, along the lines of 'accredited investor(s)', (sh-/p-)eep that can't read a flippin' Balance Sheet shouldn't be allowed to 'invest' "in the Stock market" ....
We forget/never learned 'Why our Founding Fathers were so keen on "Real Money"' ... they well knew the mischief that 'Banks' could/would Create/ that their 'Notes' were nothing, but Air...though, AU/Ag were Stores of Value, the 'Savings'-vehicles for the 'unsophisticated'....
the current schema, "Money Management" included, is little more than a Shearing Pen .. and, built to stay that way..
AAIP
wonder if edz can get to 24..
ReplyDeleteA 3 or 4 day rolling sell-off where BUCKY catches a bid, Euro and then the commodity currencies crumble and then each time zone group of markets around the world sells off in turn - that would be peachy.
ReplyDeleteK
ReplyDeleteNo icons? You know we will finish red today..?
Crude Oil 94.81 -0.58 -0.61
ReplyDeleteNatural Gas 3.878 -0.082 -2.07
Corn 690.25 -30.00 -4.17
Soybeans 1319 -62 -4.51
30yr Bond 120.59375 +0.90625 +0.76
10yr Note 119.828125 +0.765625 +0.64
NY Gold 1404.1 -2.9 -0.21
NY Silver 33.050 -0.820 -2.42
Grains !
(don't panic sell, he says.. ) can i panic sell my short positions? LOL.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/user/Bloomberg#p/u/2/2iHiHD47YWE
Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Geoffrey Dennis, an emerging-markets strategist at Citigroup Inc., discusses the impact of political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa on investment strategy and oil prices. Dennis, speaking with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack," also discusses the outlook for emerging markets. (Source: Bloomberg)
@karen
ReplyDeleteOK... I'll side with you on the part you selected as being false...
My theory would be this (Why HD is doing better)...
Some (perhaps falsely) believe that the housing market has stabilized... I know homes in this area are either moving or "moving out"...
Home Depot is the beneficiary of either HOME IMPROVEMENTS (to try to "fix up" a house you bought off a foreclosure, or think you want to make more attractive to sell)... Or - simple "board ups"...
Also, a lot of harsh weather found people lacking certain things...
So Home Depot can do well during peculiar 'phases' of a wrecked housing market...
http://www.youtube.com/user/thebarcaroller
ReplyDeletePosted this guy Friday.
He was right on the money.
Amazing
foghorn
darn, i wasn't paying attention when my zsl went green.. i still think i'm okay with it..
ReplyDelete"Bruce, are you buying the dip? getting your DOD back? you know we will be green in another 30 min"
ReplyDeleteLOL Karen, but when I retire I may decide to trade aggressively again. Today, actually, I bought fixed income...
But I do think the market will go down significantly this year, and once it becomes evident, then I will buy for the short side...
Finally got to the office...Tuesday is OR to start...
don't panic sell, he says...
ReplyDeleteWe're down 18 pts, so I missed by 13 pts, sue me. I think it's just because of scheduling...
I would recommend you panic.
ReplyDeleteAnyway
ReplyDeleteShort story
He predicted earthquakes in Japan, Baja, New Zealand for the 17-20 time period
3 for 3
foghorn
SPX daily 3LB reversal down - check
ReplyDeletebelow weekly 3LB mid - not yet (3.5 days to go)
Foghorn,
ReplyDeleteCan you send me to a site that corrolates solar winds with tectonic plate movement? This idea is completely new to me..I would be interested in reading more.
B
foghorn.. i didn't feel the 5.1 in baja on friday.. and i must have been sitting right here.. anyway.. amazing video.. think i'll try to follow that guy..
ReplyDeleteK & B
ReplyDeleteI don't even remember how I ran onto that video.
I was somewhat awed Friday, but to hit all three and a volcano.
Will peck around and see what is out there.
foghorn
http://www.youtube.com/SolarWatcher
ReplyDeleteFoghorn and Karen,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the sites. I could see how solar flares affect the weather, we had a little of the aurora borealis here in East Tennessee last week that was evident at sunset when the solar flare occured. Ours looks like the ends of a rainbow, but they were at the extreme ends of the west field of view. Actually only a little color, nothing like the pictures from Norway.
I would find it absolutely fascinating if solar winds could produce enough change in the tectonic plates to actually cause an earthquake. Energy does have mass-like effects as sticking points in Einstein's theory of relativity were proved by the bending of light by planets between us and the sun.
...But enough effect to cause an earthquake? I would love to read more of the science behind his predictions.
bespokeinvest Bespoke
ReplyDeleteEven down 22 points, the S&P 500 remains in overbought territory.
BTW, yield whores, NZT is looking tasty at 7.99-8.00 here.
ReplyDeleteWe dumped some T to buy NZT instead.
..i didn't feel the 5.1 in baja on friday.
ReplyDeleteBut the Earth moved on Saturday, right?
UNG made multi year low today! probably a buy.. LOL.. someone just tweeted: Is it really going to zero?
ReplyDeleteI stand corrected. Weekly 3LB mid - check.
ReplyDeleteUNG is a piece of shit.
ReplyDeleteNZT hanging just below 8. Dividend yield is nice.
K
ReplyDeleteJust saw the earlier icon.
Speechless....
Who didn't see this coming?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/barnes-noble-falls-after-dividend-halt-same-store-sales-rise.html
Bruce
ReplyDeleteI too, am fascinated by this stuff.
We were overcast the whole solar flare event, didn't see jack.
Put on your tin foil hat and check this out.
Egypt erupted 2.11 or thereabouts
Cue up the Twilight Zone intro.
http://insearchofsimplicitytoday.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/stages-of-evloution1.jpg
foghorn
EEM down 3.045%
ReplyDeleteYou cannot imagine the sweetness of my position....
So, just a blip...
ReplyDeleteor the start of the sell off.
Somethings gotta give.
foghorn
i sold my edz at 23.51.. a little early but 7% gains..
ReplyDeleteMany many interesting things happening today. You'd think that with stocks falling everywhere and Ts rallying, good old munis would be on a tear? Think again... they are getting shellacked....
ReplyDeleteOnce this market stops panicking there will be great value, but let's see some yield, this is a joke. Granny got sold down the river on this one, and it will be a while before she stops selling.
a little early but 7% gains..
ReplyDeleteNice...
1320 was logical support, see Andy's thick blue line on the later charts in the most recent update. lets see where it goes now
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/oil-prices-surge-to-new-highs----when-will-they-wallop-the-economy-535947.html?tickers=oil,uso,%5Edji,%5Egspc,gld,slv,%5Etnx&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
ReplyDeleteOil Prices Surge To New Highs -- When Will They Wallop The Economy?
..Wallop is such an evocative word...how about influence....?
Well done K, but we are in the mood to pound it really deep.....
ReplyDeletemy smn bet is still on..
ReplyDeleteNo, WALLOP sounds about right
ReplyDeletefoghorn
to help you figure out what to buy on this dip!
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/02/22/besides-apple-what-other-stocks-do-hedgies-love/
We have sold a portion of the long bond to sit in cash. Cant resist taking a portion off here up 5%+ on the TBT shorts. Unsure where we are heading here. BTFD?
ReplyDeleteSpoonman:
ReplyDeleteSorry didn't see your earlier post until just now:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HSGFX+Interactive#chart1:symbol=hsgfx;range=my;compare=^dji;indicator=ke_it+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
...This is what I was refering to. I think I am probably tired of the discussion. I do think if you want to be conservative in your picking of mutual funds, at least for me, as smart as Hussman is, at least he wouldn't be for me....
filling the gap at 1310? that trend line has been busted, it should retest the underside at least....
ReplyDeletestill linking that chart, fucking hilarious.
ReplyDeleteAre we having fun yet?
ReplyDelete:))
(Thats a "shit eating" grin...)
Anyone else think the CNBC "Heat Map" is the stupidest f***ing thing you've ever seen?
ReplyDelete"Let's go to the 'Heat Map' to see what's going on..."
Um, yeah....
We are taking this to the close today. IT has the feel of a bull market BIG ONE. Not the start of a correction, yet, but a great post OPEX chance to buy cheap puts at Friday's close, dump the market and then reload at cheaper prices.
ReplyDeleteIn fixed income we are thinking of unloading some AGG and TIP at the end of the day for a profit. Probably will back off from 45% to 35% bonds.
For now we are just grooving. Certain friends may once again feel that they should genuflect in the light of our TLT calls recommendation.
I know you want to praise me, K. Don't be shy.
Are we having fun yet?
ReplyDelete:))
(Thats a "shit eating" grin...)
x 10 as they say at ZH.
If you're jumping in short here, seems like you might want to use the 1325 (previous support) as first level of resistance, then 1333 which is currently the 62% retrace.
ReplyDeleteThe I
ReplyDeleteCheck the earlier icons from today. UFB. There are jalapeños, habaneros and hottest of all, the Kareneras..
I-Man:
ReplyDeleteIs that a painting? If not, where is it?
TLT is probably at resistance here.
ReplyDeletemore jeffrey gundlach:
ReplyDelete"Look, I have a gift, or some would say a curse, of being able to have stunning insight into the reality of markets and the economy," Gundlach says, dressed resplendently at this particular moment in a well-tailored Italian suit with matching green tie and pocket square. "I don't often know where my ideas come from. Maybe it's the fact that I'm obsessively regimented in my analysis, borderline autistic. But whether it's bond selection or asset allocation, we can do it better than just about anybody around."
"Though I rarely go public with specifics on stocks, I think the Standard & Poor's 500, which is now over 1300, will hit 500 in the next couple of years," he says. "I usually couch my belief by saying merely that 2011 will be a tough year for equities."
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204442204576144662301971254.html
Remember 4.60% - 4.80% is our trading range for 30y.
ReplyDeleteA break to lower yields would be very bullish for the long bond.
You betcha.
ReplyDeleteLook Jeffrey, JBTHD, you resplendent turd..
ReplyDeleteah, lb.. you were recommending tlt at 90.. at 89.. etc.. it hasn't moved much for the chunk of change it requires without margin!
ReplyDeleteIn actuality I just covered a nice short. Hence the grin...
ReplyDeleteHopefully it can muster a pullback to a higher level before I'm done making some damn breakfast and some more coffee.
Would love to sell again before the close, but it will take a tasty meatball for me to trade again today...
Re: avatar pic
Actually BnT, that is a really nice photo someone took using some high tech new HD camera. Looks like a painting, huh? Its a shot from my home river, the East Fork Lewis.
uh-oh.. there goes silver, gold and crude again..
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's the fact that I'm obsessively regimented in my analysis, borderline autistic. But whether it's bond selection or asset allocation, we can do it better than just about anybody around
ReplyDeleteWe like JG's combination of quantitative analysis and good old-fashioned horse sense with a dash of trader psychology thrown in. Best of all, he doesn't want to be loved by the Street. He just calls it.
AFIA2BNL shares some of these qualities....
http://dealbreaker.com/2011/02/jeffrey-gundlachs-giftcurse-has-taken-a-toll-on-his-sex-toys/
ReplyDeletezerohedge
ReplyDeleteEl-Erian says US can no longer assume it will be reserve currency
2 minutes ago
I've fallen and I can't get up.
ReplyDeleteAFIA2BNL shares some of these qualities....
ReplyDeleteonly without the sex toys !!
ROFLMAO !! Nice timing Jennifer.
AFIA2BNL shares some of these qualities....
ReplyDelete...artsy-fartsy..
I have huge shorts today and they are massively swollen.
ReplyDeletemaybe a Fleet's would help..
ReplyDeleteWhen I get rich I'm putting a trading desk in my bathroom and my kitchen... might as well put one in the boat too. (When I get one anyway...)
ReplyDeleteVIX spent 13 days under the monthly 3LB mid. Just sayin'
ReplyDeletebody slammed by the flu yesterday- been sleeping since 4:30 yesterday afternoon- still dizzy!
ReplyDeletethe QID I have was up 3 or 4 cents on Friday- what a difference a day makes- lol. . .may sell may roll the dice
Andy- can't believe you got rid of the Kennedy's- I would have been inclined to hold onto them
Thinking about buying a little of the dip here....so help me.
ReplyDeleteThe trade would probably be TBT at 3,30-3.45. Bond guys move into HY about that time of the day if they are going to. But sometimes if it's an equity dump, they just buy more Ts, so be careful...
ReplyDeleteJNK is doing OK so far.
A 5% dumper for EEM.
ReplyDeleteThat's what we want. Take it to 44.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAHyk0CRqgE&feature=related
ReplyDeleteBruce
Here is a good starting point on tectonics.
foghorn
Not much Bucky strength against EUR.
ReplyDeleteDo you all see the yen strength? That's always bearish....
AUDUSD was pounded. H&S set up getting going there.
The clavadista de commodity currencies is not far away.
CAD excepted, b/c of oil. But when that turns...
Dont do it, Jenn...
ReplyDeleteAt least let them put a higher low in...
just sold the QID-
ReplyDeleteanyone here hold SIL or SLW
The 2y auctions passed almost unnoticed. They were weak, perhaps b/c nobody thinks today's equity sell-off will last more than a day or so. We hate the front end.
ReplyDeleteBid/Cover 3.03
Coupon Rate 0.625%
Total Amount $35 B
Yield Awarded 0.745%
Gonna take a shot on this one...
ReplyDeleteCould get nasty here.
hey.. hyg broke 92..
ReplyDeletefoghorn,
ReplyDeletethanks. do you have something that gives a good explanation for energy from the solar winds being able to shift the tectonic plates and cause an earthquake...that is what the bubba was proposing..and this is the first I've ever heard anyone say that. That seems fantastical to me...I would love to read any serious work along that line...
Ahab -- I've got SLW, its more of a long-term holding though...
ReplyDeletethat gap appears to want to close at 1310
ReplyDeleteplease keep buying the dip
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/housing-starts-5/
ReplyDeleteJenny-
ReplyDeleteyeah I am looking for something long term. You hold any small miners?
BAC down 3.8%, only 96.2% to fair value...
ReplyDeletetweet of the day: BryanHinmon Bryan Hinmon, CFA
ReplyDeleteby themotleyfool
#Cocoa prices hit 32 year highs on unrest in Ivory Coast. If this doesn't kill the #cupcake revolution, I don't know what will.
Ahab -- I don't, but before I dropped the subscription, Fred Hickey's December or January newsletter had a long explanation of the factors he uses to pick miners. I'll try to find it...its on one of these huge stacks of paper around here. I kind of remember a BR recommending CDE back when it was around $2/share. Sigh...
ReplyDeleteAhab -- any reason you don't want GDXJ or whatever the silver equivalent is?
ReplyDeleteben, i think this will be of interest to you.. and weren't you saying this last week?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/2/22/consumer-confidence-inflation-expectations.html
speaking of miners.. note GDX..
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteBAC down 3.8%, only 96.2% to fair value...
...yes, that made me grin...
http://market-ticker.org/post=180657 Bank of America Is Totally Above-Board
ReplyDeleteRESULT!!
ReplyDeleteJenny-
ReplyDeletenot opposed to an ETF . . .
Have you ever checked out this site-
http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/
the name of the blog is Smart Money Tracker-
pretty decent info- in a nutshell (his take) precious metals have no where to go but up
only thing I've ever said about CC was that it was a worthless measurement if there ever was one, that people call it an indicator is hilarious to me....all it indicates is peoples abilities to extrapolate trends. I think it's awesome though they expect such high inflation. Just look at that chart, prices go up, and they expect higher prices, prices go down and they expect lower prices....until they go up again.
ReplyDeleteInflation aside, CC's highest ever reading was reached just before one of the largest market drops ever in the US and occured near the start of a secular bear market.
but no matter, I hope lots of people just keep buying the dip, bears need dip buyers
I'm sure Cramer can help you get your hands on some cheap Libyan bonds right now, it's all overblown...
Ahab -- you know I have a problem (cough, cough) with subscription services, right? I'm a big fan of Gary Savage. Get the nightly newsletter. Have I followed all of his trades? No. Regrets? yes.
ReplyDeleteI regret trying to short a few minutes ago...
ReplyDeleteNow I'm back to waiting for what I was waiting for before I tempted myself.
no, ben, that's not what i was referring to.. i think last week you were making the point the "everyone" was expecting inflation.. expecting the dollar to collapse.. in other words..
ReplyDeletedescending triangle is forming.....I'll trade the break, out and down continuation is the highest probability to close that gap but if today was the start of a correction it could break out and retrace, AT already published the targets.
ReplyDelete780 comments on this one.. ahab.. don't succumb!!
ReplyDeletehttp://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/02/dollar-on-edge-of-abyss.html
POMO in long bonds tomorrow. That means the B/D will be sellers.
ReplyDeleteTime to take some off ahead of that, but not to short.
yeah, that's exactly what I said.....
ReplyDeleteJJC at low low of day.. that's telling!
ReplyDeletebtw, Neely was short at Friday's close
ReplyDeleteyou can buy yourself some FCX.. cheap today, LOL..
ReplyDeletekaren-
ReplyDeleteyeah- I was actually looking that over- but I don't think he was saying $ to zero-
he was saying the 1 year support was in play
VFC.. up 9+% today? This one is going to be revising down..
ReplyDeleteneed to start watching the correlation between crude and bonds..
ReplyDeletehttp://pragcap.com/the-deflationary-shock
of course, i'm with the saudis and expect crude to drop to 70 -80
ReplyDeletei'm with the saudis and expect crude to drop to 70 -80
ReplyDeleteIt all depends on the pumping. Are you ready?
Look K, look at the yield on the 2y..
ReplyDeleteU.S. 2-year 99.88 0.69
Convertbond Lawrence McDonald
ReplyDeleteBleeding out the truth, one drop at a time: $BAC writing down goodwill for credit card unit by $20 bln, 2x previously announced amount
BergenCapital Mike Bergen
ReplyDeleteSince the start of QE, the S&P 500 is 86% correlated w/ movements in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.
check $ted from friday..
ReplyDeleteyeah, $Ted....that was fairly easy to see as a warning sign, want to see how it reacts at the 200 day, busting above is very bearish
ReplyDeleteeither way....please buy the dip
you know you want to, take risk, get paid
buy!
$trin is nearing a breakout point on a one year weekly chart?? at least look at the narrowing wedge..
ReplyDeleteforget the two year.. look at the one month!
ReplyDeleteFish on!
ReplyDeleteThat was a nice quick 20 tix... covered already tho...
ReplyDeleteDont trust em at all.
oh, never mind that one month treasury. my chart is from friday... and 3 month stayed the same..
ReplyDeleteone month at 5 bps?
ReplyDeleteI thought you might enjoy 69.
Look at 5 year TIPS. Negative yield again...
ReplyDeleteNo one wants to buy the dip...
ReplyDeleteGold and silver OPEX tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteClavadista later in the week?
there is a neat wedge in 30 min slv, too..
ReplyDelete"Look at 5 year TIPS. Negative yield again..."
ReplyDeleteso who do you want to listen to about inflation, a bunch of Janes on the consumer confidence report or the bond market? negative tips don't imply deflation, but they do imply a constant on inflation expectations and economic growth being about as good as its gonna get
just buy the dip....
ps. there's a reason people are still buying 90 days too.....
Demark was on again, saying that if ES closed below 1326 then we were about to begin an 11% + correction.
ReplyDeleteThis is a short term top in TIP.
ReplyDeleteFrom here on there will be more bang for the buck in ZROZ.
But this is a day for selling bonds, not buying.
http://pragcap.com/richard-koo-qe-is-undermining-us-economic-policy
ReplyDeleteBut like Jennifer says, let's watch the close....
ReplyDeleteI disagree, lots of people want to buy the dip, and will.
ReplyDeleteRaise your hand if you got calls from clients today asking if this was a buying opportunity.
What....just me?
Or, then there's this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/merrill-lynch-note-clients-buy-dip
Don't work at ML,.... but did my company put out a similar note today
in a word
YES.
Koo knows about QE, as a serious student of Japan.
ReplyDeleteI was ref'ing the 1min chart, bro...
ReplyDelete:)
Today or tomorrow they will JBTFD.
ReplyDeleteCount on it.
we all want to listen to the bond market Ben.. it's just that the other Ben has effed it up so badly.. as if if wasn't distorted enuf before but surplus reserves of voldemort.
ReplyDeleteclose that gap ....
ReplyDeletewell, i'm not JBTFD! i'm not one of pavlov's dogs.. been saying that for months. at least not this dip.. everything is still too expensive.
ReplyDeletethat triangle worked a charm, that was called basic false break, not enough % gain out and no volume, so odds are it was fake
ReplyDeleteTA
it works
I
ReplyDeleteI'm not so ninja on a 1 min ;-)
Karen,
ReplyDeleteYou are a lady..