Composite Home Price IndexThe HPI is back below its monthly 3LB mid and holding on for dear life at its weekly 3LB mid. If rates continue rising the move back to the lows might be faster than one would expect.
EMB (weekly info)new low 104.58
trend=down
low= 104.58
rev= 105.97; mid= 105.28
The long term trend is down. The intermediate trends down move seems to be abating. But the weekly candles are small and don't really give any clues. Looks more like consolidation.
HUI (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 504.77
rev= 581.53; mid= 543.15
Seems like the miners are now in sync with gold. This week HUI has gotten above its weekly 3LB mid. Are they ramping up production to keep up with demand?
TED SpreadMy version of the TED spread using 3 Month LIBOR and 90 Day Treasuries. Only because my provider doesn't have the spread.
Now above the 10-08-6/10 trend line. Ruh roh?
h/t Ben
http://www.nytimes.com/pages/business/
ReplyDeleteIllinois Pension Bonds to Test Investors’ Faith
"Illinois hopes to sell $3.7 billion of bonds to make this year’s contribution to its fund. It is essentially paying a single year’s bill by adding to its already heavy debt load. That short-term thinking is not unlike Americans taking out home equity loans to pay for cars and vacations before the housing bust."
No economic reports. Expecting another low volume melt up. Especially before a long weekend. At least 2/25 is next week and Ireland may get the ball rolling.
ReplyDelete"Illinois’s first attempt to shore up its pension fund with a record-breaking $10 billion bond sale has long been criticized, not least because it led to the indictment of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and several associates on influence-peddling charges. It was pitched at the time as a creative way to strengthen both the state and its pension fund, by allowing Illinois to borrow at low interest rates, then cover the borrowing cost by investing the proceeds at a projected 8 percent rate of return in its pension fund.
ReplyDeleteThe strategy failed because the pension investments have so far paid a lower rate of return, roughly 3 percent, than the interest rate on the bonds, about 5.1 percent."
Ra,
ReplyDeleteThanks much for the 3lb chart on sweaty Teddy
I find that chart to be very important right now, was an early warning in both 07 and in April 2010 of significant reversal approaching, coming up on some key MA's....and then we'll see.
I'm not a pro at identifying fractals but I think one could be forming there.
- Ben
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0d063426-37e7-11e0-b91a-00144feabdc0.html?referrer_id=yahoofinance&ft_ref=yahoo1&segid=03058#axzz1EFdFLYNo
ReplyDeleteDebt worries return to European markets
Friday 13.15 GMT. Worries about the fiscal health of the eurozone periphery returned on Friday, exerting pressure on the euro and dulling risk appetite on equities markets at the end of a strong week for the region’s indices.
Concern about Portugal’s ability to raise funds in the capital markets continued to circulate ahead of this weekend’s meeting of G20 finance ministers in Paris and the preceding discussion between the world’s top central bankers.
if you look at the last few months- the stupid but easy way to make money was to wait for the market to go into the red- buy- and sell at the end of the day-
ReplyDeleteJBTFD indeed- maybe it was just a public service announcement
ben/Ra- you guys into options much?
bruce. . .but the euro recovers because of a supposed possible bump in the ECB rate-
ReplyDeletego figure
ahab,
ReplyDeleteyeah, I almost always have some sort of options trade on, way into options.
and no doubt the buy the dip has worked, no denying that at this point, you bought the big dip last year near the lows and you are sitting on about 300 S&P points right now over half a year.....not too shabby.
- Ben
ben- so what's the deal . . .what's the bible on options?
ReplyDeletehttp://althouse.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-much-respect-did-demonstrators-show.html
ReplyDelete"Here are some photographs taken yesterday by Meade (my husband) at the demonstration against Gov. Scott Walker's budget plan:"
Cabin boy:
ReplyDeleteYes, I see that. I am still interested (no longer amazed) to see how long this global debt balloon can keep equities above water..I would have thought by this time haircuts would be going on around the world, but the force is strong in this one...
the X-Day cometh:
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/japans-social-security-panel-wants-to.html
- Ben
bruce-
ReplyDeletedemocrat senator's fleeing the state- tweeting power to the people-
makes me giggle like a school girl
ahab,
ReplyDeletethat's not too easy to explain in a short period, re: options
this is a good place to start:
http://www.optionseducation.org/institutional/education/classes.jsp
- Ben
Why is there no responsibility on the part of any of these unions to acknowledge that they have been sold a bill of goods and they bought it hook, line & sinker. The money has never been there for any of these fantastic pension/benefit programs. They were always too good to be true. A simple understanding of basic math (okay, maybe I'm reading too much Denninger) proves this to be true time and time again. If someone, somewhere, had simply pushed back and asked a few hard questions, like "how are you going to pay for these wonderful goodies you are promising me?" would we be in this position? They were talking about the Wisconsin teachers protesting on the radio as we waited at the bus stop this morning, so I asked my 3rd grader what she would say if I promised to give her $100 million for a perfect score on her spelling test today. It only took her 3 questions before she got to wondering where the $ was going to come from. This isn't rocket science. I guess I'm feeling a little down on people in general today.
ReplyDeleteben-
ReplyDeleteno . . .I understand the basics . . . but I was hearing this dude talking about his strategies and my head my was spinning- a lot of trade jargon I was unfamiliar with . . .
Some of those signs in those pictures, are....interesting
ReplyDelete"I'm proud to be a worker"
I wonder how many times the person with that sign has said that until now?
"Keep your hands off State Labor Laws"
I think what they meant was, Keep your hands off state labor laws...that have a negative impact on me, it's ok if it's bad for everyone else
the true age of the individual.
as one of the comments hints at over at the blog
perhaps it's time Obama put a new task force together to clean up after those demonstrations, and we could have a clean up after a demonstration Czar to lead them
- Ben
ahab,
ReplyDeleteno doubt the options can get very complex, I told I-man this not long ago but one way I've practiced getting better at understanding them is if you have time during the day to watch real time orders come through watch for big lot options trades going through on huge liquid issues such as the Q's and SPY and then sit down on paper and try to figure out what the trader did exactly and what needs to happen for their trade to make money.
You can also learn a lot of what smart money is doing by watching Brenna and Jamie on those optionmonster videos attached to TopStep.
as for a lot of the trader lingo I'd probably only know half, one of the disadvantages of not having worked on a trading desk or on the floor, every trade I place goes through on-line, only a few times have I needed to call our brokerage desk when I put on some LEAPS in my own accounts.
- Ben
The same thing could be said to the muni holders-
ReplyDeletehow are you going to pay for these wonderful goodies you are promising me?
I think both parties are probably little Lord Blankfeins with just less money.
ReplyDeleteWake me up when Washington passes a balanced budget amendment. Then you can spend what you bring in however you care to...fish and chips on the house to start...but no Guiness, sorry...
ennui (ˈɒnwiː, French ɑ̃nɥi)
ReplyDelete— n
a feeling of listlessness and general dissatisfaction resulting from lack of activity or excitement
I have several teachers as clients, they are often the most vocal in discussing how hard they are working, always makes me stop and think
ReplyDeleteno weekends outside of maybe the random in service day here and there
every holiday off
oh yeah....and summers
I don't know, doesn't seem so bad to be, I wouldn't know what to do with myself with that kind of free time.
Most business owners I know work 12-14 hour days, lots of weekends, and when you own your own, there is truly no time off, there is always something on your mind as I can speak to this first hand.
In fact, it is probably safe to say everyone at every job thinks they work real hard. But hard work is a relative term isn't it.
I'm more in favor of what Chris Christie is trying to do with teachers in NJ, this three years and you've proven tenure for life nonsense has got to stop, and that's an issue entirely separate from the pensions and medical benefits they get.
- Ben
here- check this out- especially the letter a few paragraphs down-
ReplyDeletewhat do we think?
http://www.commoditypress.com/category/all-posts/precious-metals/
makes me wonder about all these precious metal holdings that are paper
Jennifer
ReplyDeleteState workers took less pay for better benefits. The downturn took down private pay and benefits to levels below the state workers. So now the private workers are complaining. The problem is that it's class warfare but it's us vs us not us vs elites.
I read someone complaining about how teachers work 9 months and get 3 months off. They believe the teachers salary should be reduced. But what they don't understand is that the teachers salary is paid over 12 months not 9 months. They claim teachers work 6 hour days. But failed to mention all of the paper grading and lesson preparation that's done at home.
The problem is that it's class warfare but it's us vs us not us vs elites.
ReplyDeletetoo true
and
I think both parties are probably little Lord Blankfeins with just less money.
too true
- Ben
Plus I'd love to see how people would deal with 30-50 unruly students for 6 hours a day. Everyday.
ReplyDeleteben @ 9:11-
ReplyDeletethe schools are bonkers
Making war on teachers is missing the point. Trickle down economics doesn't work and all of the liquidity has trickled up to the buyers of $4-10M apartments in NYC, a booming market according to Bloomy.
ReplyDeleteThis will get a lot uglier.
"Plus I'd love to see how people would deal with 30-50 unruly students for 6 hours a day."
ReplyDeletehow about 30-50 unruly adults and their money for 12 hours a day?
i dont know which is more fun
- ben
Everyone in our society feels entitled to something. When the something stops being delivered there is going to be a lot of trouble. You don't want to be around when a whole generation throws its toys out of the pram.
ReplyDelete"But what they don't understand is that the teachers salary is paid over 12 months not 9 months. They claim teachers work 6 hour days. But failed to mention all of the paper grading and lesson preparation that's done at home.
ReplyDeleteRa- it's different by county- some counties in Virginia do the 9 months- others allow the teachers to take their pay over 12 months (if the teacher wants)-
valid points otherwise
ahab
ReplyDeleteEven here it's an option for the teachers. Some do and some don't.
Ben
LMAO
"Plus I'd love to see how people would deal with 30-50 unruly students for 6 hours a day."
ReplyDeleteI thought they just put them on Ritalin?
Silver keeps telling Blythe to tap out.
ReplyDeleteRa- did you see my 9:12? read that letter-
ReplyDeletewhat do you think?
you've all probably heard this a million times but it really is a good song:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM213aMKTHg
caught them perform it at the Grammy's and they sounded awesome
also, I have to admit, this Justin Beaver kid is really starting to grow on me.
- Ben
I feel like buying a bunch of monster boxes!
ReplyDeletefrom ben's 8:50-
ReplyDelete"Social Security now consumes a whopping 53% of government spending and that number will rise."
wow . . .but as I have said before- there is nothing statutory that can't be made "un" statutory-
if it's unsustainable- what are your choices?
ahab
ReplyDeleteI remember reading that some time ago. Couldn't Blythe do the same thing? JPM has the funds to take delivery. Then what would they do?
morning! yup, $ted jumped again yesterday.. thanks for the above, AR..
ReplyDeleteben, he's on the new rolling stone, i believe.. amazing young man, but he's getting controversial now..
and following up on the "X Day" post- we have this:
ReplyDelete'X Day’: How To Trade a Japanese Bond Implosion
it seems to me that it would have to happen sometime-
but it could be like shorting NFLX- lot's of pain before the ecstasy
"also, I have to admit, this Justin Beaver kid is really starting to grow on me.
ReplyDelete- Ben"
Say it ain't so Ben! Not you too! Now I am afraid to fall asleep again or I will turn into a Beiber!
(From Night of the Living Beiber, on DVD or Blu-Ray)....
ok- I give up- what's a pram?
ReplyDeletePram = stroller (perambulator)
ReplyDeleteTempted to play China directly from the short side.
minor 18's
ReplyDelete1368
....1359
1350
...1341 [you are here]
1332
...1323
1314
major 18's, w/some fibs
1537
1375
...1351
...1336
...1274
...1244 (50%)
...1212
...1177
1112
Looking at yields all I can say is "that which was lost is found"
ReplyDeleteJust to clarify -- I wasn't picking on teachers, the issues there apply not just to all public unions but frankly to our country as a whole. No one ever asks the tough questions, and now we are a bankrupt country with nothing but millions of empty promises. I think I'm going back to bed.
ReplyDeletefollowing up on the pram definition- if everyone wants a good laugh-
ReplyDeletedude from Britain doing an American accent-
Challenge Charlie
pretty funny
JOHN E hour up.... wonder what the rest of the day will bring.
ReplyDeleteLiquidity pumps on in the US, off in China.
Sure you want to buy China, JOHN?
Radical, chaps.
ReplyDeleteJennifer
ReplyDeleteI didn't think you were. Now remember that states also failed to pay in the pensions and used the funds elsewhere.
in s/b into
ReplyDeletethis is what is happening today:
ReplyDeletehttp://twitter.com/#!/NickKristof
and here we have the cold hard truth from Bass:
ReplyDelete"Japanese monetary policy—like a lot of other Western economies (talking about you, America)—is committed to maintaining abnormally low interest rates in the hopes of stimulating growth.
But the problem, Bass explains, is that this is really a trap having nothing to do with growth. It’s about paying creditors. In order to simply afford paying the interest on its hulking debt, Japan must maintain interest rates near zero."
Exactly! What if Japanese government bonds increased to 5%-
carnage
Thanks Karen, that suspends my ennui today...
ReplyDeleteYes, Ahab. That is spot on, as the daft Englishman raised in a perambulator would say. We have reached the Catch-22 moment with our interest rate policy..
ReplyDeleteAmong other things, Catch-22 is a general critique of bureaucratic operation and reasoning. Resulting from its specific use in the book, the phrase "Catch-22" is common idiomatic usage meaning "a no-win situation" or "a double bind" of any type. Within the book, "Catch-22" is a military rule, the self-contradictory circular logic that, for example, prevents anyone from avoiding combat missions. In Heller's own words:
ReplyDeleteThere was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one's safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn't, but if he were sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didn't have to; but if he didn't want to he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle.
Silver broke thru $32
ReplyDeleteFeels good to get back to some old fashioned dip buyin...
ReplyDelete<3ing Charlie!! THANKS so much for that : )
ReplyDeleteI thought a 'pram' was a boat?
ReplyDeleteKaren-
ReplyDeletenot hard to believe about Bahrain
Speaking of England- never been outside of a layover in Heathrow- London sounds like it would be a blast-
big pint of ale and a kidney pie (is that a legitimate item? I like going total local)-
have to watch out for the soccer hooligans though (anybody see the movie "Eurotrip"- hysterical)
Today's musical suggestion:
ReplyDeleteJohn Prine
Common Sense
Aint too common anymore...
I like it when you're above me :O
ReplyDeleteJust hit the 12320 YM target I mentioned last week...
ReplyDeleteDoesnt look like it wants to stop now tho...
Kinda have I eye on 12358...
Might just be a let it run kind of day.
Nothing says "sell T's and buy stocks" like unrest in the Middle East. At least oil is up, that makes a bit of sense...
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteThe Kristoff tweets are sobering and fascinating...thanks.
here's a question-
ReplyDeletelooking at Japan as the "model"- is it inevitable that we will be in a zero percent range indefinitely"
what of rising food and energy costs?
Bruce.. his op-ed in the nytimes yesterday in case you missed it:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/opinion/18kristof.html?_r=1&ref=opinion
gotta roll-
ReplyDeleteall be good
Fri 10:30am ET- Briefing.com
ReplyDeleteThe CRB Commodity Index is now up 0.3%, which puts it at a session high and on pace for a 1.4% weekly gain.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteI'm truthin it, I've got Bieber Fever!
I caught this quote of his on lady gaga's grammy entrance and thought it was hilarious, something like
"I know people are saying it's artsy and whatever but I thought, 'hey, she's in an egg'"
sounds like something I would have said at 15, or 16, whatever he is, sounds like something I might say now....
re: Silver,
that chart looks like it might just explode higher
surely CV is laughing his ass off right now
- Ben
Ben you need to go fishing or something... get outdoors... get some sawdust or the blood of wild game on your hands.
ReplyDeleteThis Bieber Fever shit is freaking me out...
:)
I-Man:
ReplyDeleteThat is exactly what I am headed out to do...chainsawing in the north pasture...
Back later...
Good luck and don' be a Beiberhater!
Sounds like more fun than buyin dips...
ReplyDeletethe whole idea of low rates stimulating growth is always illogical at some point
ReplyDeletethis started getting mentioned 8-9 years ago which is that Americans are so overindebted you can go ahead an offer credit at near 0 interest and it won't matter, they can service any more.
that's the Keynesian end-point.
- Ben
it's not as if what SS is costing the Japanese what it is, isn't exactly what we are looking at in the not too distant fugure.
Fortune Magazine
ReplyDeleteIf the Fed's printing money, why is the growth of new currency in circulation below average? http://bit.ly/fkruiM
I dont think Keynes knew much about THE REAL WORLD...
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteDon't get Ben started :-)
The Fed is creating credit that goes into the banks excess reserves. The reason it's not currently inflationary is that the credit just sits there. No one is borrowing so there's no velocity.
TLT chart just went back to ugly..
ReplyDelete89.23 -0.54 (-0.60%)
ReplyDeletehttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=PACF_TLT
TLT fixin' to to close @ 89. (?)
AAIP
Crude Oil 90.43 +1.59 +1.79
ReplyDeleteNatural Gas 3.893 -0.008 -0.20
Corn 721.25 -1.75 -0.24
Soybeans 1402.0 -14.5 -1.02
30yr Bond 118.93750 -0.50000 -0.42
10yr Note 118.703125 -0.312500 -0.26
NY Gold 1387.2 +2.1 +0.15
NY Silver 32.285 +0.715 +2.25
ibid.
TLT rejected at the SMA(21) and the trendline. Kind of like watching your shot get blocked and pinned to the backboard.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the NYT will be even more disgusted when the police in the US start beating and killing people. For now it is Bahrain.
ReplyDeleteThink it can't happen here? Kent State, people......
If you have ever been to NE Ohio, btw, you would think... HERE???
Portugal at 8.33% now.
ReplyDeleteWhen does the POMO show stop and take a breather?
Does some major government say Stop the Madness?
There is live fire in Bahrain and USTs are selling off.
This market is not normal.
But then we knew that....
AGQ is something else.. no profit taking on the horizon..
ReplyDeleteEURUSD is effing ridiculous. There is no way the ECB will hike and if they did we would see an almighty market crash. EUR will back up next week as the Irish elections come into view.
ReplyDeleteGold and silver will be screaming until Ireland and Portugal are resolved.
We are now 27% short China and EMs and 14% long US equities.
ReplyDelete45% US fixed income.
One more big run and they'll call it done... 12360 on YM should do it.
ReplyDeletethis one is for CV! Legacy Trades
ReplyDeleteARBITRAGE - Beautiful day out, I'm off to my local Bank for a $1MM withdrawal, in nickels. I'll melt 'em down, then sell the bars for $1.5MM
I DID SAY DON'T SHORT PMS AHEAD OF IRISH ELECTION.
ReplyDeleteIt is a happy day over at ZH...
UFB !!!
Imagine if they really broke JPM... wow....
Anyone shorting PM's here is a lunatic, or just into pain.
ReplyDeleteMr Top Step
ReplyDeleteNew Video: Danny Riley on End of POMO. What does that mean for S&P Rally? http://mrtopstep.com/?p=2539
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/friday-episode-criminal-reserves-flip-bond-accompanies-dollar-plunge
ReplyDeletemontly CAT chart from Nic: http://stock.ly/content/details/8265
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SRD.V&ql=1
ReplyDeletebaby Prospector/'jr. miner'
should do well..
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GFS.V
should be understood, has good 'prospects'(as a Co.)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ZNC.TO&ql=1
should do well, pot. 3x/U$D 2+ by Oct.'011
AAIP
Wow it didn't take long for silver to retrace back to its highs after the London close.
ReplyDeleteAAIP
ReplyDeleteWas looking at options on IPGP. Not enough OI for me.
A little Bluegrass to ease the day...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngF7FcDW_mQ
Seldom Scene
"Boots of Spanish Leather" (Dylan Cover)
AR -- agreed. I looked yesterday. Maybe good for a straight short though...I had some success with FFIV this week, shhhh don't tell though since stocks are only supposed to go up.
ReplyDeleteKaren and I have been saying this for a long time: oil is gamed.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/guest-post-the-price-of-oil-–-where-the-outrage.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29
You're dad gum right thar, pardner.
ReplyDeleteForex & Bonds Last Change Change %
ReplyDeleteEUR/USD 1.3667 +0.0062 +0.46%
USD/JPY 83.23 -0.10 -0.12%
GBP/USD 1.6235 +0.0064 +0.40%
5-Year Treasury 2.309 +0.027 +1.18%
10-Year Treasury 3.616 +0.042 +1.18%
30-Year Treasury 4.719 +0.057 +1.22%
http://finviz.com
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=KC
273.75 on the Speed Bean..
who likes U$D ~4/lb. Coffee Prices?
ibid.
We are 30% short now.
ReplyDeleteSomebody is going to do something over the weekend that might be construed as monetary tightening. Not Bernanke, BoE or ECB.
The emerging markups are in trouble, someone will crack.
Hey Euro bulls:
ReplyDeleteREALLY ????
i had to short some silver.. a hedge against all the physical i have in my pantry! LOL
ReplyDeleteSilver has broken thru earlier highs. It's like watching a boxing match after the bell has rung but a fighter is still getting pounded.
ReplyDeleteCould say the same thing about DXY.
ReplyDeleteIts odd...most days, we're up 10 points, but it feels like we're up 100. Today, we're up 50, but it has that up 5 feeling to me.
ReplyDeleteLB.. you might enjoy some of the articles here:
ReplyDelete"My theory (and this is just a theory) is that the ECB refused to accept some bank debt as collateral for MROs due to market volatility in that debt."
http://blog.cornerturned.com/
Wonder what ol' Robert LaFollette would think about what's going on in Wisconsin....
ReplyDeleteAT,
ReplyDeletehe would 'stroke-out' ..
AAIP
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1
re: Silver
looks like the 'parabola' is gaining steam..
The Career of Robert M. La Follette
ReplyDeleteRobert La Follette developed his fierce opposition to corporate power and political corruption as a young man. Affiliated with the Republican Party for almost his entire career, La Follette embarked on a political path that would take him to Congress, the governorship of Wisconsin, and the U.S. Senate. His support for progressive reforms, rousing oratory, and frequent clashes with party leaders earned him the nickname "Fighting Bob."
Born in Primrose township, Dane County, in 1855, La Follette worked as a farm laborer before entering the University of Wisconsin in 1875. After graduating in 1879, La Follette launched his political career... more...
http://www.wisconsinhistory.org/turningpoints/tp-035/
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Robert+LaFollette+Progressives
'Progressives'/"Progressivism" (near)= Communists/Communism
ibid.
Neely's still hanging tough with his count.
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteThe author of that blog is extraordinarily close to the action in Ireland, those posts are very valuable information and fairly close to real time.
There are all kinds of little stress signatures cropping up all over the place. Not like Lehman, but they are multiple and widespread. TED spread, LIBOR, 1 month bill buying, gold, silver, peripheral bond spreads and EM put buying are all setting off alarms for me.
http://www.youtube.com/user/thebarcaroller
ReplyDeleteThis guy is interesting.
Uses sun activity to predict earthquakes and volcanos.
Hmmm.
foghorn
If I recall
ReplyDeleteLIBOR up means banks don't trust other banks.
See Spot run.
See Jane freak.
Watch Dick drool.
foghorn
"...but they are multiple and widespread. TED spread, LIBOR, 1 month bill buying, gold, silver, peripheral bond spreads and EM put buying are all setting off alarms for me..."
ReplyDeleteshould be setting off Alarms for more peep, as well..
ibid.
i <3 Neely..
ReplyDeleteno one else short silver?
Foghorn,
ReplyDeleteif you see some of:
http://www.the-electric-universe.info/
it isn't, too, difficult to see the potential 'causality' ..
AAIP
i'm watching slv so hard i didn't see uso go red.. LOL
ReplyDeletek-
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=h1
nice Candle, nice Call..~
Nothing says 16 on the VIX like unrest in the middle east...wait, what? Loony toons...
ReplyDeleteYou ever notice how water swirls down a drain?
ReplyDeleteNice, long easy loops at first,
then smaller and smaller
til you reach peak velocity and are expelled down the drain.
The circles feel smaller and smaller...
foghorn
hoping another penny or two on uup stops the fall..
ReplyDeleteStupid question of the day.
ReplyDeleteIf oil is 'fossil fuel' and is made from dead dinosaur goo,
how's come when they dig up old dinosaur 'fossils' they aren't covered in oil?
i guess it only works part of the time, eh?
foghorn
For a second there I thought I saw red. Oh, there it is again!
ReplyDeletesilver teacup upside down on 10 min..
ReplyDeleteeffing uup.. i-man, curse at it! make it stop falling..
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to see what appear to be more topping patterns in some individual names.
ReplyDeletealso, it would seem to me that some traders want Johnny to be the one holding over the weekend...
- Ben
I don't know how anyone would want to hold heavy over the weekend in equity
ReplyDeletethe whole world seems like it's on fire right now from where I'm sitting
I think sweaty $TEDdy is the canary in Bob Prechter's cave.
- ben
Crude Oil 89.11 +0.27 +0.30
ReplyDeleteNatural Gas 3.908 +0.007 +0.18
Corn 715.75 -7.25 -1.00
Soybeans 1378.0 -38.5 -2.72
30yr Bond 119.21875 -0.21875 -0.18
10yr Note 118.937500 -0.078125 -0.07
NY Gold 1388.4 +3.3 +0.24
NY Silver 32.39 +0.82 +2.58
Emini S&P 1338.75 +1.00 +0.07
Emini Nasdaq 2387.75 -5.75 -0.24
Emini Dow 12336 +48 +0.39
(AP:PARIS) Finance chiefs of the world's dominant economies were close to agreeing on how to track dangerous imbalances in the global economy, part of the Group of 20 rich and developing nations' efforts to prevent another financial crisis.
European Union Monetary Affairs chief Olli Rehn said he was confident that there would be agreement "to identify and address global imbalances," but that discussions on the precise indicators were still continuing.
The talks Friday focused on coming up with a list of indicators to measure imbalances: current accounts, real effective exchange rates, currency reserves, as well as public and private debt levels, Rehn said. The current account measures trade and capital flows into and out of a country.
Germany's Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Asmussen said a majority of countries supported sticking to those five indicators. China in particular has so far opposed targeting exchange rates as it has resisted letting its own currency, the yuan, appreciate more quickly against the dollar....
AP reporting on the G-20 ( that's a good one! (as in,. Joke..))
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897670668375711
ibid.
Bahrain appears to be far more violent than Egypt, shooting at these people is only serving to make them more angry.
ReplyDeleteanother thought on Egypt, it seems to me in situations like this the people that end up gaining power during chaos are those that are most willing to use violence
if that islamic brotherhood takes control there I have to imagine Israel is going to get pre-emptive
- Ben
I think the Revolution Genie is out of the bottle
ReplyDeleteKilling folks isn't going to make it go away.
In fact, it will probably have the exact opposite effect.
Interesting times, folks.
foghorn
22.27 uup ...
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=UUP
ReplyDeletea little early, though, may be beginning 'to look "constructive"
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLT&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
~89.32
is that looking to 'double-bottom' @~88?
ibid.
Marky
ReplyDeleteWe think the bottom is in for TLT. Next low will be a higher low.
Next week Eurostress is on the front burner.
Bruce's favorite NYC bar re-opens:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dnainfo.com/20110217/lower-east-side-east-village/coyote-ugly-reopen-after-health-department-violations
yay! uup!!
ReplyDeleteDriving that train,
ReplyDeletestraight to Bahrain
Barack O' you better
watch your speed
Trouble ahead
trouble behind
Where did I leave
that damn land mine
Train keeps a runnin'
down that ol' line
Hits rebel junction
about a quarter to nine
After Bahrain it's
on to old Spain
The oligarchs must feel
some old fashioned pain
Molotov cocktails
tanks in the street
No matter your cause
we will not be beat
Driving that train
straight to Bahrain
Barack O' you better
watch your speed
Onward thru the foghorn
I forgot it was OPEX...
ReplyDeleteI-Man
ReplyDeleteFollowed by a long weekend...
K,
ReplyDeleteRemember if we close RED
We expect panties.
I forgot it was OPEX...I forgot it was OPEX...
ReplyDeleteFollowed by a long weekend...
time for some naughty Asian tightening.... smirk
FOLLOWED by ... a CLAVADISTA .... the SUCTION DEVICE
SUBMERGING MARKETS.
Makes me feel even better about taking my winnings from this morning and calling it a week.
ReplyDeleteThe YM is the peaceful market... just look at how tame it is in comparison to the others.
ReplyDeleteThe Wang would say "Its leading."
ReplyDeletefantastic, foghorn!!
ReplyDeleteG20 ganging up on The Bernank. China telling them all to go to hell and raises rates again. WI Democrats found in Vegas. All Middle East countries decide to revolt. Could be an interesting weekend.
ReplyDeleteGracias senorita
ReplyDeletefoghorn
Foghorn, splendid piece.
ReplyDeleteYou are a splendid piece too, K.
"emerging markups"
ReplyDeletethat was Funny..and apt..
AAIP
TYX trying to hold on to 47+
ReplyDeleteUmmm isn't the silver margin call in 10 min?
ReplyDeleteNice 26 tick swing outta nowhere...
ReplyDeleteK,
ReplyDeleteThat u-tube from earlier predicted a quake in the Gulf of Cali.
between now and the 20th.
Keep us informed, eh?
foghorn
missed that youtube! will look for it.. thanks.. i heard moody's downgraded some SF company on earthquake odds yesterday..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdcQGJF_jmY
ReplyDeleteGeithner Admits: Obligations in President's Budget "Unsustainable"
...I'm back. (Palpable sigh of relief thoughout the room, followed by wild applause...)
This is a remarkable admission by the Sec. Treas. but I imagine the republicans aren't going to offer much better. I think the genie is out of the bottle...just keep enough money on hand to by popcorn.
by, bye, buy, damnable English language...
ReplyDeletedia on the ten min is a total farce. ufb..
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/marketjunkie/2011/02/18/silver-coin-shortage/
ReplyDeleterumors running rampant..
Haven't read this all the way through yet, but in light of recent conversations...
ReplyDeletehttp://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/02/february-17-2011-inflation-for-innocent.html
do you see mention of shortage at tops or bottoms?
ReplyDeleteanyone?
- Ben
ps. JPM morgan has it all
Jennifer.. i think our Ben wrote that piece.. excellent. : )
ReplyDeleteI thought of Ben when I read it...
ReplyDeleteMay as well finish strong and go for up a hundo on Dow at this point...
ReplyDeleteJennifer:
ReplyDeleteNice post. I too thought of Ben..actually assuming one or the other outcome, I would prefer deflation...
Let us hope the cost-push NeoKeynesian thingy is not real, but like most theories, is an ideas postulated to explain something more complicated that the theory considers..
re: riots
ReplyDeleteIt just dawned on me that these riots are really being initiated by the womenfolk.
Think about it.
If Mama ain't happy, ain't Nobody happy.
Mama is getting starved and hubby can't just let Mama starve.
It is really remarkable how peaceable the demos have been and I credit it to the womenfolk.
It really is about Food.
Not islamic brotherhood bullshit
FOOD.
What a sorry fucking state of affairs.
foghorn
Thousands protest in Bolivia over food prices - http://goo.gl/Cz9iw
ReplyDeleteBut as the Bernank says.. that's their problem..
@Anon (9:20)
ReplyDeleteEveryone in our society feels entitled to something...
I can honestly, really honestly, say that I have never felt 'entitled' to anything in my life...
It's usually the opposite actually... I tend to be EMBARASSED for what I feel to be good fortune...
---
Been busy most of the week folks... Mostly clearing land, and soil (new plots) for upcoming planting... The weather has been PERFECT for that this week in the East (& besides - the FA says these days are perfect for that)...
http://www.farmersalmanac.com/calendar/gardening/
Got most of the spring stuff (lettuce, spinach, rucola etc.) started this week... Plus, the EARLY indoor starters (onions, tomatoes, squash, peas, beans, and all the various herbs)...
Next week go in the underground stuff (potatoes, carrots, plus - racks and racks of annual flowers - gotta grow a lot of marigolds & lavender because the East Coast has been inundated with "stink bugs" and it helps keep them away)...
CV
The EEM and the FXI backed off early today.
ReplyDeleteWhich is good, b/c we are short them.
CV do you use a cold frame? Plastic sheeting?
I am sure it has occured to most here already, but you realize if we really are in the process of nation building, and it seems that must be part of the motivation, we could take over Bahrain with almost no trouble now, and start a democracy...and I imagine most of the middle east would praise us...but if we do nothing because the dictatorship is on our "side"....we probably lose...again.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteTough thing in Bolivia (food wise), is lack of rainwater...
MOST (here in the US), would find that a problem too...
Seeds are nothing...
What's KEY are compost, irrigation, temperature & pest control...
It takes a few years (even in a micro sense) to get that process working efficiently...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-18/lennar-bets-on-former-executive-s-housing-party-as-california-rebounds.html
ReplyDeletePortugal is blowing out in 5y now as well as 10y, both over 7%
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/portuguese-government-pleads-for-help.html
You see my friends, it isn't losing the back end that is the problem. It's when you lose the front end and you start paying 5% for overnight money. That's when the loan sharks wanna breaka your face....
@Anon
ReplyDeleteI use various methods... In WVA I have several greenhouses... I can heat them, but even with the bitter cold we had this year, the lowest they got was around freezing...
In Maryland, I utilize the "southern" exposure windows and have built portable racks out of PVC piping (which I can disassemble & store during the winter)... Those are to hold the racks and racks of starter seeds...
The "rule of thumb" around these parts is that you can't risk putting anything into the ground until after Mothers Day (as there will always be a killing frost sometime when you don't expect it)...
So the STARTERS really don't take up much space...
Outside I have a combination of everything from:
- Raised boxes
- in the ground
- hydroponic
- aquaponic (fish fertilized)
I like to experiment with the different methods... The good thing about the closed systems is that composting & rotation is easy...
A nice little post. We will leave you to draw your own conclusions.
ReplyDeletehttp://dshort.com/articles/current-treasury-yield-snapshot.html
@foghorn,
ReplyDeletere: women starting riots
As it should be! Women take leadership roles and become more prominent in Bear markets. At least according to the Socionomics institute.
As for that article Jennifer posted, that was nice, the whole thing, I couldn't agree more with this statement
"It is not how much something costs that matters, but how much it costs in relation to how much purchasing power people have, and that will depend largely on changes in the effective money supply. In order to understand what is happening to affordability, one has to adjust nominal prices for changes in the money supply and thereby express price changes in real terms."
- Ben
...and as I said above
ReplyDeleteIRRIGATION is a key factor... In Maryland, I'd never be able to grow much if I didn't have a complex rain collection system (& conduits & pumps)...
That all has to be customized...
So your lettuce etc are just indoors or in the ground in greenhouses? Interesting stuff on the fish fertilizer.
ReplyDeleteThe only reason I am watching the market today is to see if we close red, b/c, well, you know....
ReplyDeletewhen it comes to the hyperinflation and deflation debate
ReplyDeletefor two years now, the fact is, those of us on either side of that argument have been wrong, we are stuck in some hellish in-between
but I think we are fast approaching resolution on this matter
if we get hyperinflation, it really doesn't matter in the end, that too, ends with deflation, so one way or another...that's where we are going, though, in the meantime, your investment strategy for each couldn't be more night and day....and this could play out over years
wish I knew beyond a shadow of a doubt which it was.....but I can only rank what I think is most probable.
- Ben
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteHere's something I've been wondering in relation to this:
"we could take over Bahrain with almost no trouble now, and start a democracy"
Is that what these people want, a democracy? Or put another way, what countries in the world are right now say...."gee, we want to mirror the American political model"
I'm not of the mindset that every culture is trying to be like us, and it's important to remember those cultures there have been around for thousands of years, we're just some punk kid a few hundred years old.....
- Ben
I will say this.
ReplyDeleteJesse of Cafe Americain has been very accurate on gold and silver.
"we are stuck in some hellish in-between"
ReplyDeleteoh yes brother. there's some truth.
Good ole fashioned 10 tick dip buy to end the day/week.
ReplyDeletePeace, Yall.
"we could take over Bahrain with almost no trouble now, and start a democracy"
ReplyDeleteThis pre-supposes that we have one and now how to start one.
Not the way it looks to me.
Ben
ReplyDeleteDon't forget our old friend from the long haired rock band days.
STAGFLATION
We are here now IMHO
As you pointed out, purchasing power is the key.
It is zooming around the drain, faster and faster, hence the 'food disputes' now occurring around the globe.
foghorn
Peace the I-
ReplyDeleteEMs are the weak antelope. The jackals are gathering.
STAGFLATION
ReplyDeleteNot here. Not much flation but a lot of stagnation.
Not even over there. Still growing fast. Wait until they slow down and have sticky wage inflation. That's AMORE. I mean STAGFLATION.
also, in that article, did you see his high-side estimate for the value of the derivatives
ReplyDelete1,600 trillion
that's just too big to understand
and not a single dollar is held in reserve somewhere for when these trigger
I read that Denniger paper yesterday where he went through the private interview with BB that was just released
it is without a doubt evident that banks have no capital at all reserved to cover losses on derivatives and it is so easy to see how that could all just collapse on itself, one could be triggered at any momement and once a few do, they can all go....
but hey, don't forget to buy the dip
- Ben
ps. Given the facts on derivatives, isn't it hilarious that someone might hype, say WFC, because of...I dunno....earnings improvement or P/E ratio....
Better buy some stock before the weekend. They ain't gettin' any cheaper...ufb.
ReplyDeleteAll metrics are meaningless when the faucet is wide open.
ReplyDeleteWFC is golden, you cant go wrong, Buffett owns it.
ReplyDelete...
PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT...
MUST..CLOSE...GREEN...KEEP...JOHN E...HAPPY...SUCKER
ReplyDeletefoghorn,
ReplyDeleteyou are right, no doubt some people are feeling Stagflation
but I say some because we both know, some aren't.
- Ben
I-Man
ReplyDeleteWFC was early in changing the time it took to write off NPLs to improve earnings.
Stagnation/Stagflation
ReplyDeletePotato/Potahto
Too many stags running around
not enough does to fuck.
foghorn
In England we call that a SAUSAGE FEST.
ReplyDeleteFoghorn,
ReplyDeleteno kidding..
and, a degree aside, peep, still, wonder why 'Food Processors' were invented by 'a dude' ..
AAIP