Rough Rice (weekly info)new high 15.89
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 15.89
rev= 13.70; mid= 14.80
This week rough rice is getting sold HARD. It's only Wednesday and it's already below the weekly 3LB mid. Weekly pattern has formed an evening star. It still is above all SMA's. I wonder if China is somehow involved in the sell off.
Coffee (weekly info)new high 251.65
trend=up
high=251.65
rev= 240.50; mid= 246.08
Coffee is still getting more expensive. At least it hasn't broken above the trend line. If it does then Starbucks may have to change its name to Starchange.
SPX/Gold Ratio (monthly info)-no change (above mid)
low= 0.7663
rev= 1.0700; mid= 0.9182
This ratio is back above its monthly mid and the weekly is trending up. The last time is made it above the mid was in April 2009. From this one can see that even if the SPX gets back to 1500 its value is still far off the peak. Using the high from July 99 of 5.5933 and todays gold price ($1375.10) the SPX would have to be at $7691.35 to be comparable. Or gold would have to be $238.91. Think either of these will happen anytime soon?
The Bears may have to break out "The Final Getsuga Tenshou" to get this market to correct...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/16/AR2011021606897.html?nav=rss_email/components
ReplyDeleteObama budget plan shows interest owed on national debt quadrupling in next decade
"Starting in 2014, net interest payments will surpass the amount spent on education, transportation, energy and all other discretionary programs outside defense. In 2018, they will outstrip Medicare spending. Only the amounts spent on defense and Social Security would remain bigger under the president's plan."
...At this point we need a few less elected cowards, and a few more of both parties willing to prevent this bomb from going off....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/spanish-government-bonds-fall-as-debt-sale-falls-short-of-treasury-target.html
ReplyDelete"Spanish bonds declined after the nation sold fewer bonds than targeted.
The yield on the 10-year bond rose five basis points to 5.38 percent as of 10:01 a.m. in London."
http://tinyurl.com/4vrssu4
ReplyDeleteMERS Exits Stage Left, Tells Members Not To Foreclose In MERS' Name
After the MERS Valentine's Day Massacre, previously reported on Zero Hedge, where Judge Robert Grossman found that MERS has no right to transfer mortgages, the company appears to have proceeded with the logical next step: professional Harakiri. In an announcement sent out to all MERS Members, the company stated that according to a proposed amendment to Membership Rule 8, it will require "members not to foreclose in MERS' name." MERS is seeking comments in a 90-day period, but since this is a directive driven from external judicial decision(s), it is unlikely that MERS members' opinions will matter at all. Basically MERS may have just exited the US mortgage scene, stage left, for good.
CPI +0.4% core +0.2%
ReplyDeleteInitial clsims 410k
hey whammer-
ReplyDeletethanks for finishing gristle's lyrics- could't pull the melody until I saw your post
CPI core = .2% (2.4% annualized)
ReplyDeletejobless claims up to 410k - (probably the weather)
Ra-
ReplyDeletesorry dude- I was blindly posting and didn't see your 8:32
Interesting move down developing in the futures this morning...
ReplyDeleteHappy to help diffuse the testosterone here. I've learned a lot here, especially in the last few days, thanks to all for everything.
Yesterday was a particularly good day, longs were up, shorts were down, what more could a girl want?
ahab
ReplyDeleteNo problem. Since it was mildly WTE how will USTs respond?
t's up, yields down...
ReplyDeleteJ-
ReplyDelete@ 09:00
nice 2x entendre`
~~
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=IPGP
~52.78
keeps trying to 'break free', though, the 'Gravity' is strong..
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
~17.02
this, to me, is looking like it wants to find the 50sma @~15..
AAIP
Jennifer,
ReplyDeleteI may have to order more yellow cards! We finally got Lefty toned down a little, and there you go encouraging him.....hmmm.......
Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
ReplyDeleteEUR/USD 1.3574 +0.0014 +0.10%
USD/JPY 83.47 -0.20 -0.24%
GBP/USD 1.6131 +0.0046 +0.29%
5-Year Treasury 2.289 -0.06 -2.55%
10-Year Treasury 3.574 -0.047 -1.30%
30-Year Treasury 4.656 -0.018 -0.39%
http://finviz.com/
Crude Oil 87.78 -0.06 -0.07
Natural Gas 4.025 -0.005 -0.12
Corn 701.0 0.0 0.00
Soybeans 1378.50 -2.75 -0.20
30yr Bond 119.46875 +0.53125 +0.45
10yr Note 118.734375 +0.140625 +0.12
NY Gold 1381.5 +6.4 +0.47
NY Silver 30.745 +0.116 +0.38
http://www.ino.com/
US Dollar
78.144
-0.079 -0.10%
ibid.
good morning.. copper down again..
ReplyDeleteyou're a naughty girl Jennifer:-)!
ReplyDeletewhatever happened to Nic who used to pop in from time to time?
Ra- TLT popped 90
this is interesting:
ReplyDelete"The Federal Reserve ordered the 19 largest U.S. banks to test their capital levels against a scenario of renewed recession with unemployment rising above 11 percent, said two people with knowledge of the review."
wow- probably just a formality- no need to worry
Real Time 90.00 0.37 (0.41%) 9:43AM EST
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TLT
ahab,
TLT should work out..( go +)
AAIP
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG
ReplyDeletethe Red Metal..
4.4490
looking like it's in 'Do, or Die'-territory..
ibid.
30yr Bond 119.43750 +0.50000 +0.42
ReplyDelete10yr Note 118.734375 +0.140625 +0.12
http://www.ino.com/
anyone, still, have an appetite for 'Strips' (Zero-Coupon Bonds) ?
ibid.
ahab.. Nic still isn't fully recovered from Lyme.. also I believe she is working professionally, now.. I catch her on twitter once in a while.
ReplyDeleteahab
ReplyDeleteI'd wait for 90.58 on TLT.
hoffer @ 9:46
ReplyDeleteI would like nothing more than to see a commodity collapse-
all the hopes and speculation for global expansion snuffed out by the blanket of debt covering the globe
karen-
ReplyDeletewhat was her web site address?
Nic's blog: http://big-trading.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with that Philly Fed number?? LOL
ReplyDeletethanks-
ReplyDeleteshe hasn't posted since November
Hi chaps and chapesses,
ReplyDeleteWe are back from a brush with death, aka the flu. Well, the non-event of the day was the market's reaction to the 0.8/0.4 PPI/CPI one-two punch. Why no reaction you might ask? All priced in.
This gives us greater confidence in our macro model for Treasuries, on which our entire market strategy is based. So far the 4.6-4.8% band for 30y has not been violated and the decision to buy heavily on entering the zone appears to be vindicated.
Now does anyone want to buy a large hedge position that isn't green?
BTW, the answer to the STRIPS question (zero coupon bonds) is yes, now that we have clearly put in a bottom, next time we have a flare-up in yields, absolutely. We suspect that yields will be range bound for a while so you could play TBT from one extreme and ZROZ or UBT from the other extreme.
We hope the substitute Bond Reporter kept you amused. Hope I didn't miss any exciting lingerie icons. Pleased to see that J has joined K in the art of double entendre.
U.S. mortgages in foreclosure tie a record high: Mortgage Bankers Association
ReplyDelete02/17/2011 10:03:20 AM
Karen
ReplyDeleteProbably because the Eagles franchised Vick. It's a better explanation than "snow".
35.9 !!! ROFR !!!
ReplyDeleteMaybe lots of new companies in Philly like "SQUEEGEE GUYZ.com"
You can pay some people to produce data.
BergenCapital Mike Bergen
ReplyDeletePhilly Fed Prices Paid 67.2 -- 4th highest in History behind only July 2008, Nov 1980, and March 1980.
Fox News faking it: http://tinyurl.com/4o4wrk9
ReplyDeleteFOX News Creates Fraudulent Video to Discredit Ron Paul
As Paul Joseph Watson of PrisonPlanet writes:
In a shocking act of mass public deception, Fox News attempted to skew Ron Paul’s 2011 CPAC straw poll win by representing it with footage from the previous year’s CPAC event, at which Mitt Romney supporters had loudly booed the result, another example of the continuing dirty tricks campaign being waged against Paul by the establishment media.
Congressman Paul replicated his 2010 victory over Mitt Romney by defeating the former Governor of Massachusetts for a second consecutive year at the annual CPAC conference.
However, before anchor Bill Hemmer introduced a segment concerning the story, Fox News played a clip of the 2010 announcement of the poll results, during which Mitt Romney supporters had loudly booed Ron Paul’s victory, passing off last year’s footage as representative of this year’s event.
Hemmer then proceeded to state, “In the end he was the winner, probably not the reaction he was hoping for,” describing the reaction as “mixed applause and boos,” before directly asking Ron Paul if he knew who was booing him.
Now, watch the video:
from zerohedge.com
BTW, the action in Treasuries will eventually be good for all those rate-sensitive sectors like telecoms, REITs, and utilities that Jeff "KLEINKOPF" was trying to get people to sell this morning to buy industrials and materials and China.
ReplyDeleteAmusing piece on Bloomy today with a Chinese bloke whose front room is stuffed to the gills with cotton.... commodity top...!!
Planning to sell strength in EEM today.
ReplyDeleteThis is fascinating.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/fed-tells-banks-to-stress-test-capital-for-recession-with-11-unemployment.html
Want to know who is buying Treasuries? Tier 1 Capital, bitchez.
"Chinese bloke whose front room is stuffed to the gills with cotton"
ReplyDeletehope he likes to sew
Ra-
a lot of folks don't like Ron Paul. He was giving an interview the other day and said "why aren't we trading with Cuba"? And I am saying- yeah why aren't we? But I bet that sent shivers down the spine of the establishment . . .
goddamit- I want to go Cuba . . .why the hell can't I?
what kind of bullshit is that from a "supposedly" free country?
Ahab -- re: Cuba, technically, you can, it just involves a few extra hurdles. I have several cousins who went via other Carribean islands. I remember a creepy magazine article a few years back, maybe Newsweek but not really sure, that basically said Cuba was a cheap alternative for those wanting the Thai sex tour experience but couldn't afford the trip to Thailand.
ReplyDeleteI guess I should add that I don't think my cousins were going their for the sex tour, but they are my husband's cousins, and now that I think about it...
ReplyDeleteUgh...wrong there.
ReplyDeleteJenny- (in my be Forrest Gump)
ReplyDeletesure- I know there are ways- I checked into it- and I also know that Cuba won't stamp your passport if you're American-
you can fly out of Mexico and Canada to get there-
but what of the two entries on your passport with no country in between? Let's say you fly out of Cancun . . .Cuba doesn't stamp (doing you a favor) and then fly back to Cancun-
two entry stamps for Mexico- where did you go?
Jennifer
ReplyDeleteAt the next family get together just mention Cuba and see if they wink at each other.
Good point -- hadn't thought about that!
ReplyDeletefull moon tomorrow!
ReplyDeletewell, i was wrong about DUST being a buy the other day.
ReplyDeleteJerry Douglas
ReplyDeleteRestless on the Farm
Another great album gettin a spin today...
Gotta put the "neck" back in Dreadneck from time to time...
Also, check:
Steve Earle and Del McCoury
The Mountain
The Seldom Scene
Scene it All
There's your Dixie, Rastas.
A lot of buying in the last 5min on YM...
ReplyDeleteAnd here I am waiting for another pullback... PFFFTTT...
ReplyDeleteNo pullbacks, herre.
if anybody likes to travel internationally- here is a great site to get info and ask questions about your destination (from folks who live there and travel there)-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.lonelyplanet.com/thorntree/index.jspa
whatever you do- do yourself a favor and travel light. I pack everything into an overhead bag-
all you really need is a passport and a credit card- and a few change of clothes-
toiletries and whatnot can be picked up wherever you go- anywhere in the world (everyone sells the same shit you can get here)
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/2/17/best-and-worst-performing-stocks-since-the-3909-low.html
ReplyDelete(NFLX doesn't even make the list : )
A quick 20 pt flush would serve the I nicely... and get rid of these fleas that cant wait for a damn pullback before drooling all over the keyboard.
ReplyDeleteand what's fun- is just get a one way ticket somewhere-
ReplyDeleteno reservations, no maps, totally unprepared and wing it from there-
let serendipity be your guide- it's a blast!
man I got the travel bug bad!
ReplyDeletegotta roll- all be good!
"This is fascinating.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/fed-tells-banks-to-stress-test-capital-for-recession-with-11-unemployment.html"
....and, just to show how schizophrenic business journalists are:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/jamie-dimon-s-biggest-disaster-is-waiting-commentary-by-simon-johnson.html
Jamie Dimon's `Biggest Disaster' Is Waiting: Simon Johnson
"If shareholders are protected from being wiped out by the implicit too-big-to-fail guarantee, they should welcome the arrival of additional leverage as the economy improves. In fact, as the latest quarterly earnings results appear, the financial press has started to ask Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other banks why they don’t increase their leverage even more.
Top bankers are also pressing hard for the right to increase dividend payments. That’s effectively a transfer from creditors and taxpayers tomorrow (because of the guarantee) to shareholders today."
...if you increase your leverage even more, and then we have the double dip, well it guess you are even further up the creek and still no paddling...(easy Lefty..)
Jamie Dimon is an asshole. Nothing else to add.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/cotton-rises-above-2-for-first-time-as-supply-tightens-on-chinese-demand.html
ReplyDeleteJamie Dimon is the next Treasury Secretary.
ReplyDeleteBut you kinda have to be an asshole, or hat, to get that job.
zerohedge
ReplyDeletePOMO over- Fed buys $7.24 in 10 Years. 3.19 S/A ratio
Jamie Dimon is the next Treasury Secretary.
ReplyDeleteGood call, there, I-Man. Pretty obvious, isn't it?
Just got short for the first time in I dont know how long...
ReplyDeleteOnly to work it down to where I want to get long tho, about 30 ticks below where we are now.
I'll take it.
I-man.. I was just going to post: GO SHORT NOW.
ReplyDeleteeverything and anything..
ReplyDeletePart of me knows its dumb, and that there is an army of dippers just waiting for every 8 tick drop to reload on the longs...
ReplyDeleteIf we were trending higher on the 15min chart I wouldnt have taken it... but its flatlining, and I dont like chasing upmoves on falling volume.
http://www.forexlive.com/167698/all/fed-approves-the-volcker-rule
ReplyDeleteOh Ben won't you buy me
ReplyDeletesome new laying hens
All your friends are crooks
and have raided my pens
You feast on Viagra
and love your Extenze
Oh Ben won't you buy me
some new laying hens
We once were wealthy
and now we are poor
It's mostly your fault
you tie wearing whore
Uh oh we hear knocking
on the door
Your goons must here
to abuse us some more
Oh Ben won't you buy me
some new laying hens
Your friends are all crooks
and have raided my pens
sorry Janis
foghorn
zerohedge
ReplyDeleteTime for COMEX to raise silver margins and for GLOBEX to make ES margins negative
Ya know the more I look at this setup Karen, the more I think there might be a big hunk of meat on this bone...
ReplyDeleteI could see a puker down to 12140... which would be a NICE move.
And set up an even better run higher afterwards.
Natural Gas 3.974 -0.056 -1.39
ReplyDeleteCorn 714.00 +13.00 +1.85
Soybeans 1406.0 +27.5 +2.00
30yr Bond 119.56250 +0.62500 +0.53
10yr Note 119.18750 +0.59375 +0.50
NY Gold 1384.8 +9.7 +0.70
NY Silver 31.100 +0.471 +1.54
http://www.ino.com/
EUR SPX correlation back. Trendline resistance at 1.3615, turned at the same time as YM.
ReplyDeleteSold it also, looking for a quick turnaround.
We are so close to EEM 46 that I just am dying to get short.
ReplyDeleteStarted a small short.
ReplyDeleteIrish banks under extreme stress. This is going to be very very ugly. DO NOT short GOLD and SILVER. This is not the time....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/paddy-meet-ponzi-irish-banks-lend-billions-each-other-use-ecb-collateral
Just gotta wait for one of the big boys to throw a punch...
ReplyDeleteIf the machines smell blood, this is gonna be a lot of fun.
holy eur bid...
ReplyDeleteThats gotta be a mirage, right Bob?
ReplyDeleteSomeone wants to get out is what I'm thinking...
this is driving me nuts today (as well as the euro)
ReplyDeleteAUD/USD still very order driven http://www.forexlive.com/167706/all/audusd-still-very-order-driven
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xY9eZ1UsWrA
ReplyDeleteChina can't seem to burn their $ fast enough...
50% retrace at 13620, could be a turn
30 minute candle looking more constructive for a short now...
ReplyDeleteMy appetite is affecting my patience...
ReplyDeleteThis is when I normally cook up some breakfast.
Anyone seen the PTJ "Trader" documentary?
ReplyDeleteThis is the time I would be putting on Bruce Willis's hightops.
Heading out for a while.
ReplyDeleteYou know where this is going, it's just a matter of when.
check out AUD....
ReplyDeletespx on a 60 min.. 30 day chart.. who is responsible for those footprints?
ReplyDeletecheck out eurusd
ReplyDeleteScraped a few bucks out of that short and still sitting on a few, the bid is relentless
ReplyDeleteFirst punch has been thrown...
ReplyDeleteI am not sure I understand the bond action the last several days...I am disappointed that I won't be able to needle Lefty as he developed the "Tight Sphincter Syndrome"...now I am sure all that is "behind" him...
ReplyDeleteIn all your gloating Lefty, why the sudden interest in treasuries? Always looking to learn something new..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/birinyi-associates-largest-holdings-in-4th-qtr-13f-alert.html
ReplyDeleteyou must look at that..
Potugal Bailout? Old News!
ReplyDeleteBy Jamie Coleman || February 17, 2011 at 17:50 GMT
Can’t keep a good euro down…Knock it down, it bounces back like one of those inflatable clowns.
Someone is buying bucket loads on any minor dip… Wish I knew who…EUR/USD is back to 1.36.
I-man in DIA on the day.. two red ten minute down candles followed by big push in 3rd ten min.. so here we go.. let's see what happens between now and 10:10 (pacific time.)
ReplyDeleteStill short... in the green by a few ticks.
ReplyDeleteThis suckers DOA.
Brenna Hardman
ReplyDelete$EEM someone just bought 20,500 June 36 puts for .42 #CBOE #options
another 5 min to go.. no volume..
ReplyDeletethere it goes.. the push is on.. this will be 3rd time today.. two reds followed by reversal buying..
ReplyDeleteJJC back to flat.. i say forget shorting anything (except the USD) and buy commodities.. any and all of them... LOL
ReplyDeleteThey will need to work harder to stop out the I-Man...
ReplyDeleteYes, we agree. You can all short the pi** out of EEM.
ReplyDeleteThat Pizza was good.
Sick part, is I kinda wish they would so I could go take a piss, and make some breakfast.
ReplyDeleteAwesome.
ReplyDeleteKevin Hayden, Truth Is Treason, Contributing Writer
ReplyDeleteActivist Post
Thanks to “just in time” inventory practices; America has an average of just three days of food on its grocery shelves. Inventories are kept extremely well managed and tight thanks to the amazing efficiency of modern-day transportation and manufacturing systems. Depending on your age, you might remember when grocery stores had excess stock and inventory in the “back room.” Those days are long gone. If the “just in time” trucks stop rolling for any reason, your local grocery store will be empty within days, and that’s even in good times!
If a disaster were to strike – natural or manmade – you could expect those shelves to be bare within hours. The recent blizzards and snowstorms blanketing the United States are a perfect example of why it pays to be prepared. When you watch the news and the weatherman says a life-threatening cold front is coming your direction with 15" of snow, or a hurricane is forming, do you: ..."
http://www.activistpost.com/2011/02/bartering-inflation-and-growing-garden.html
AAIP
Silver has broken through the highs from 1/3/11...
ReplyDeleteThanks, Mark.. I think I'll go to costco this evening and stock up.. I don't think Trader Joes keeps more than a day's worth of food on their shelves, btw..
ReplyDeleteIt's ugly in Bahrain.. i have a twitter feed from a journalist there right now..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketSnapshot/BondMarketUpdate.htm
ReplyDelete"
The euro has been performing well as it was able to hold onto the 1.35 level, and push to 1.3585. Of note, the ECB saw the highest level of emergency overnight borrowing in 20 months last night. Banks tapped the ECB for EUR 15 bln last night (average slightly less than ECB 1 bln usually). The number has been chalked up to operation issues, but should still be closely watched."
SPY hod, exactly high of year 2k..
ReplyDeletewell, no bears want to see that 1350 broken with authority, remember this was the high side target on the Neely count developed in mid August, so that's worked out pretty damn good.
ReplyDeleteEWI is very close to capitulation, in last nights short term update they labeled the alternative in their chart as Wave V
wavers will understand the significance of that
if EWI flips bullish I'd tell you all to move all-in short immediately!
Bonds looking a bit more constructive but still not out of the woods from where I'm sitting.
- Ben
Gonna try this shorting thing again, but if it dont work, gotta call a spade a spade.
ReplyDelete(for Ahab) NicTrades Nicola
ReplyDeleteWatching EURUSD for short here and dollar reversal, AB=CD from Mondays low, and trendline resistance from 02 Feb.
Well, Ben.. all i wanna know is if this forms the peak of the spy right shoulder on 15 year chart..
ReplyDeleteEEM did just exceed 46.. sighing..
ReplyDeleteHere is a list of countries where protest will be put down brutally:
ReplyDeleteBahrain
Iran
Saudi
USA
If you don't believe me try protesting outside C, BAC or GS.
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeletethat H&S is one of the finest examples I have ever seen, form, prices, volume,... all textbook
problem though is that the neckline is so far below by the time it's broken we'd have already missed a huge trade.
I still don't want to be short until I can see some weakness. Neely is shorting into strength with tight stops each time, I'm just playing it safer for now.
It's really bothering me that the dollar hasn't broken out yet. It hasn't gone below my get the hell out point either but when was the last time you saw this much chaos on the world and no flows to the dollar....it's strange, seems like people are buying gold and silver instead.
- Ben
http://neithercorp.us/npress/2011/02/how-to-fake-an-economic-recovery/
ReplyDelete"...You have created a progressive debt singularity so immense that no amount of fiat, no amount of taxation, no amount of austerity could ever satiate its hunger. You now have the perfect excuse to print the dollar with wild abandon until its withered, corpsified remains are six feet underground, leaving the door wide open for the tap dancing fast-talking SDR to take its place.
The issue is, how do you convince the general public that all is well until you are ready to unleash hyperinflation and fiscal Armageddon? How do you make them believe with all their hearts that they are not in the midst of a debt meltdown and the end of their financial sovereignty, but basking in a full-on economic recovery?!
You can’t stop wealth destruction now that the avalanche has been set in motion. You can’t stop inflation and dollar devaluation (nor would you want to. Hey, you’re evil incarnate, remember?). The effects on mainstreet are beyond your ability to hide, but, what you CAN manipulate, are the statistics and indices that Americans rely on for psychological comfort. You give everyone a blindfold and a cigarette and you do what you do best; lie!
Here is a step by step guide to fabricating an economic recovery out of thin air…..."
~~
k-,
~
AAIP
This could be it... if that turns out a bull trap on the YM 5min...
ReplyDeletePlayed skillfully...
EEM is the best short, it has already broken down.
ReplyDeleteAgree on the dollar, all it takes is a small push.
It doesn't require anything but a small need for dollars here in the US.
Once that happens the flight from EMs will be something to behold.
how-to-fake-an-economic-recovery/
ReplyDeleteIN fact this has been a masterpiece. BB (and The Swerve) has created FAKE INFLATION in the US and UK, but unfortunately forgot that we are all globally interconnected, and has created widespread hunger, food shortages, social unrest and political instability.
A slip could turn into a slide real fast here...
ReplyDeleteSkate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is.
ReplyDeleteNice, Wayne, nice.
ReplyDeleteLet me propose a question:
ReplyDeleteIf EVERYONE knows the only path of the dollar is collapse, then why hasn't it already done so?
- Ben
Ben.. i don't want to break that SPY neckline.. just getting to it would be scary enuf!!
ReplyDeleteBen, i know.. we are not even at the 2008 lows..
ReplyDeleteon the dollar, i meant..
ReplyDeleteIf EVERYONE knows the only path of the dollar is collapse, then why hasn't it already done so?
ReplyDelete- Ben
If EVERYONE knows that the onply path for Treasuries is collapse, whay hasn't it happened?
- JGB Trader
When the sell side equity guys are on TV talking MACRO and inflation, you can tell that it's time to start trading the other way....
ReplyDeleteSo, I go to the doctor, McDonalds (little guy likes their cheeseburgers, and who am I to deny him?) and Target (I'm in charge of the Brownie troop's snacks, which involves actually having some snacks) and I come back to see 1339 broken with nary a fight. I have a bad feeling about 1350 too. I mean, we have protesters in Bahrain being shot in their sleep and TLT can't get over the 20? I wish I'd bought more gold.
ReplyDeleteFed VP Christine Cumming said that rising commodity costs merely indicate "stronger global demand."
ReplyDeleteSure, and leprechauns are going to save Ireland from default, and we have a free market in the United States.
What's more, Krugman is an economist.
Was her name really Christine?
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteif that neckline is broken, I can kiss this job goodbye, along with the rest of wall street
measured on the S&P it implies a negative!!!
Also, JGB trader
xactly.....
It is a timeline thingy...
ReplyDeleteWe know that the sun will eventually go nova and future (way future) BinT's will look like the Marlboro Man's ex-cigarettes, but it hasn't happened yet.
It will though..
"...If EVERYONE knows the only path of the dollar is collapse, then why hasn't it already done so?..."
ReplyDeleteMcB,
"Everyone" ? really, are you serious?
try this out..the next time you're in line, at the In n' Out, the Stop n' Go, the Kum n' Blo, ask you fellow 'linespeep': ~" Hey, what about a Paperback Collapse/Dollar Devaluation/Currency puke-out?"
8 of 10 would little, to no, Idea of what you were referring to...if that (many would have a clue) ....
AAIP
I-Bro,
why not find a nice 'Online C@sino' that hosts Roulette..grab your faithful, lucky 50c-Piece, call 'Heads'='Black' ... and have a rip at it (?)
Kum & Go
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kumandgo.com/
ibid.
Christine Rachael Ulyssa Cummings
ReplyDeleteanecdote - Last week I overheard a conversation between two homeless guys about the collapsing dollar and buying gold. Not kidding. They hadn't bought any, but they surely would have if they hadn't already blown all their money on booze.
ReplyDeleteBecause thats pussy shit, Mark.
ReplyDeleteMark.. i don't think those folks are moving currencies.. they barely have two nickels to rub together.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry, they were short USD/CW(canned wiskey)
ReplyDeleteIf this were blind 50/50, I wouldnt be playing it...
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteNah, I don't think so.....and let me provide a real world example that isn't a day old.
I had a meeting with a prospect today at 11 am, he was very excited to see me as he was referred to me by another client that told him I was "different", you want to know the first words out of his mouth:
I want you to tell me how to profit offer a dollar collapse with gold.
this guy runs 4 day spas in West Chester, PA, he told me also that he knows "nothing about the markets"
It was an interesting meeting to say the least.
My own mother has called me recently concerned about the dollar, my mom is financially illiterate.
I promise you, I speak with more regular people than you do every single week, if you don't think a lot of folks aren't aware that our currency has serious problems I think you are just completely wrong.
and when I'm talking about EVERYONE I'm talking about market pundits stating such things, the "pros" people pushing money around that actually matters in the markets, if you can find me more than 5 analysts that are bullish the dollar right now I'll eat my words.
Good luck.
- Ben
I get two to three people writing me or calling me every single week for months on end now asking about gold. Come on guys, that trend is well established now, if you aren't seeing that all around you I'd be shocked.
ReplyDeleteThe dollars troubles are widely known at this time, people may be clueless as to why that's the case, but they aren't blind to the fact that it's happening.
- Ben
QID up a penny ???
ReplyDeleteI was invited to a "cash for gold" jewelry exchange party a few months ago...the invitation said something like "you know that earring you can't wear anymore because you lost half of the pair? trade that old gold in for $$$" Very classy. I think I had a Brownie troop conflict so I couldn't go.
ReplyDeleteGoldminers seem to be trying for a higher high.
ReplyDeletenew house rule: any two consecutive red DIA candles are followed by a surging third..
ReplyDeletehere is how the US wants to fix its budget problem:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/17/canada-harper-us-idUSN1714515820110217
McB,
ReplyDeleteyou went with "Everyone" ...
were asking ~"then Why isn't the 'Dollar' collapsing..."
I gave you an Answer -- through the "try this out", that I outlined, above...
and,
k-,
they transact Currencies everyday..it's that they, still, choose to use the U$D is why it's still around...
when you get peep, actively, dis-hoarding U$D, and 'Assets' denominated in such, is when you'll see the U$D go, literally, en fuego/evaporate ...
ibid.
I-Bro,
that's the 'ol' Pepper'~ :)
just think, who are the people mark that you are talking about
ReplyDeleteheavy tv watchers?
how many gold ads do you see on the regular on tv anymore? they seem pretty common to me.
how about another thing regular joes do
read the sunday paper
yep, more gold ads, mainly from all the local jewelers telling you they'll pay cash for gold
other regular Joe activity round here
listen to your favorite political hack on 1150 WDEL
libs in the morning, repubs in the afternoon
gold ads all day and night
if you said that in 2008, I'd have wholeheartedly agreed with you, today, I don't think it's the case at all that people aren't aware.
- Ben
Mark,
ReplyDeleteon another note, what's with all the gas leaks/explosions round your way?
I heard last night there's a leak again in that same 'hood where a pipe just blew up killing a couple people.
mark.. i'll ditto what Ben said, good luck.
ReplyDeleteDont be dissin on speculation as a business, Hoffer...
ReplyDelete:)
re: try this out
ReplyDeletethat's what I'm telling you, it's becoming more common that I don't have to ask that question, people are coming to me telling me its going to happen.
I'll begin to document here each time it occurs if you'd like to see, I have three more meetings before my hight is done, I'd almost promise you at least one of the three it will come up.
I do 10-15 meetings every week.
"Ol' Pepper" would be a great name for a shotgun, tho...
ReplyDeleteMine is "Ol' Bessie"...
A little pun off Davey Crockett's "Old Betsy"...
J-,
ReplyDeletespeaking of CrackyD's..
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=McDonald%27s+Ground+Beef+what+is+in+it%3F
"...According to today's New York Times, The "majority of hamburger" now sold in the U.S. now contains fatty slaughterhouse trimmings "the industry once relegated to pet food and cooking oil," "typically including most of the material from the outer surfaces of the carcass" that contains "larger microbiological populations."
This "nasty pink slime," as one FDA microbiologist called it, is now wrung in a centrifuge to remove the fat, and then treated with AMMONIA to "retard spoilage," and turned into "a mashlike substance frozen into blocks or chips".
Thus saving THREE CENTS a pound off production costs. And making the company, Beef Products Inc., a fortune. $440 million/year in revenue. Ain't that something?
And to emphasize: this pink slime isn't just in fast food burgers or free lunches for poor kids:
With the U.S.D.A.'s stamp of approval, the company's processed beef has become a mainstay in America's hamburgers. McDonald's, Burger King and other fast-food giants use it as a component in ground beef, as do grocery chains. The federal school lunch program used an estimated 5.5 million pounds of the processed beef last year alone.."
http://www.organicconsumers.org/articles/article_19947.cfm
AAIP
Thats disgusting...
ReplyDeletedid everyone here get the flu this year?
ReplyDeleteI know lefty had it, I-man was sick, I got it....
any other lucky souls?
- Ben
I feel a little queasy now...
ReplyDeletePerhaps I'll deprive him from now on...I like having him around after all, he is excellent company. Cute too. And worships me, which is always a plus.
Beef Products Inc
ReplyDeleteThey are a favorite of mine. They were claiming for a while that there beef products were so "good" that mixing some of it in with even worse "stuff" would make it all "safe". A prophylactic.
There was the small problem of the "beef" smelling like ammonia...
Long Davy Crockett, btw...
ReplyDeletepeep may be squawking, but, this: "when you get peep, actively, dis-hoarding U$D, and 'Assets' denominated in such, is when you'll see the U$D go, literally, en fuego/evaporate ..."
ReplyDeleteI'm not seeing, nor have heard tell of..
~~
I-Bro,
'ol' Bessie' sounds like she's not havin' any problems 'droppin' Fowl'...
ibid.
Short Santa Ana...
ReplyDeleteI had it...morphed into a nasty sinus infection too. Okay, hungry Brownies await. Later, traders.
ReplyDeleteoops, we are working on the second red ten min dia candle.. find a 3times ultra and go long!
ReplyDeleteThis year she did... she aint go huntin. Couldnt cough up the funds for the bi-state hunting license, and my favorite blinds are all across the river in Orygun.
ReplyDeleteBut the steelhead rod has some scales on it...
AAIP,
ReplyDeleteYes. That's why I avoid ground beef. For a penny more profit a pound, they'll be glad to slip in anything they can get away with. And of course, the "pols" are always glad to amend the rules in exchange for a nice contribution from the Beef PAC.
RG
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/01/tainted-burgers-shows-that-corporate-profits-trump-public-safety-cargill-and-mcdonalds-edition.html
ReplyDeleteThis was my jumping off point for my beef products education.
Not for meal time.
J-
ReplyDeletethought you'd be better off knowin', than not..
and, in reality, almost all of the 'Food' @ "Fast Food" stores has been adulterated..
costs less, to them, that way..
AAIP
Don't really get sick.
ReplyDelete"peep may be squawking, but, this: "when you get peep, actively, dis-hoarding U$D, and 'Assets' denominated in such, is when you'll see the U$D go, literally, en fuego/evaporate ..."
ReplyDeletein mass panics those types of things usually happen when it's way too late/after the fact
so considering it's going to be damn near impossible to get money out of the US after 2013, my bet would be after that....
- Ben
why 2013?
ReplyDelete"...considering it's going to be damn near impossible to get money out of the US after 2013..."
ReplyDeletethat's, even, a better point..not many are aware that that is 'coming down the Pike' ..
ibid.
Hey whatever happened to McHappy?
ReplyDeleteF the eurusd... glad I dont trade that shit.
ReplyDeleteI-Man.. but you are!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteoops.. sorry about that link:
ReplyDeletehttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/02/110216-largest-biggest-solar-flare-sun-sunspot-1158-science-space-nasa/
Not so sure about that one...
ReplyDeleteIt does look like that sometimes. Ok, a lot over the past few years.
Ben, MEH-
ReplyDeleteWhat happens in 2013?
ben.. "The most powerful solar flare in four years exploded over the sun late Monday, according to NASA."
ReplyDeleteAdded to EM short.
ReplyDelete"The magnetic instability that caused the flare also unleashed a blast of charged particles that should hit Earth's atmosphere TONIGHT, possibly sparking auroras farther south than usual, experts say."
ReplyDeletecombined with tomorrow's full moon..
ReplyDeletebob,
ReplyDeletesee some of
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=capital+controls+coming+to+the+U.S.+2013
AAIP
Crude Oil 88.84 +1.00 +1.13
ReplyDeleteNatural Gas 3.901 -0.060 -1.52
Corn 723.0 +22.0 +3.13
Soybeans 1416.5 +38.0 +2.76
30yr Bond 119.40625 +0.46875 +0.39
10yr Note 119.015625 +0.421875 +0.36
NY Gold 1385.2 +10.1 +0.73
NY Silver 31.695 +1.066 +3.48
Emini S&P 1338.75 +5.75 +0.43
Emini Nasdaq 2397.50 +5.50 +0.23
Emini Dow 12297 +45 +0.37
got to hop, I'll try to catch up later..
ibid.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteinteresting, we are getting close to the deadline of that scary neely prediction of an "event" and I don't think he was talking about the tv show.
Bob,
I first read CTC by Prechter about one year after I got out of college, at that time he was warning that the longer this dragged out the harder it would be to open foreign bank accounts and the US would start to restrict your ability to do this or tax you heavily any time you tried to move money out of the country. Some of the things he advised in the first CTC book are no longer found in the updated version because they aren't available anymore.
this is the whole purpose of setting up the gold money account and now I use two of their overseas storage facilities, it's smart to get some of your money out of here now, as I'm to understand some laws will go into effect in 2013 that will stop you from being able to open certain accounts overseas or tax you heavily if you do.
not to go on too much about it as it's the type of thing that is considered "advice" but it's prudent to look into this imo.
- Ben
he even went so far as to say you may want to consider establishing some sort of temp citizenship status other places (I dont' know how that works at all) but then mentions that as bad as he expects things to get, the US might still be your most stable bet, though one state might end up more safe than another.
ReplyDeleteI haven't taken any steps like that though.
- Ben
Long Wyoming, Idaho...
ReplyDeleteWhen TSHTF it's best to be a long way from the cities.
ReplyDeleteThe suburbs may be the most dangerous places of all.
Long East Tennessee.
ReplyDeleteGoing to run this afternoon, finally a gorgeous day in the 60's. Ben, thanks for posting the 2013 information...I will try to do a little reading about that tonight.
VIX volatility must be off the charts today.
ReplyDeleteWe closed our Treasury hedge.
ReplyDeleteBruce,
ReplyDeletere: 2013
here's the thing though, I think we should all realize govt could change rules whenever they feel like it, 2013 is said to be when certain laws go into place, however, who's to say it couldn't happen in 2012, or this summer for that matter.
it's the "new normal" right?
- Ben
You wait until the violence starts when the authorities brutally suppress protests in Yemen, Bahrain, Wisconsin,
ReplyDeleteWisconsin?
Oh yeah, those who weren't around for the civil rights movement have forgotten that the USA is a world champion at Brutal Repression.
Things feel..... unstable. We will not be shorting Treasuries until there has been irrational fear-driven money flow back into that asset class.
ReplyDeleteI am quite uneasy today about the state of the world.
Long Elkmont...
ReplyDelete(Via Wears Valley Rd.)
I am quite uneasy today about the state of the world.
ReplyDeletex2
- Ben
i follow this fellow on twitter.. here's his latest.. it'll give you shivers.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/opinion/18kristof.html?_r=1
For being wrong 4 times out of 7, down $60 seems like a backrub.
ReplyDeleteoff for some sunshine in the madness.. later : )
ReplyDeleteThe Bond Report 2.17.11
ReplyDeleteToday saw strength in the belly of the curve, with a POMO of 7s to 10s. The market shrugged off the PPI/CPI double whammy of 0.8/0.4, which means that was already priced in, as well as lingering worries about the US deficit and debt. This suggests that there are other things to worry about and that return of capital is becoming a factor in asset allocation.
Munis also had a good day, as there is just a tiny bit of unease creeping into the markets. But maybe it is just ourselves, maybe everything is for the best, in the best of all possible worlds.....
Corpies: LQD 0.23%; AGG 0.26%; JNK 0.04%; HYG 0.20%
Govies: TLT 0.13%; IEI 0.28%; TIP 0.38%
Munis: IQI 0.68%; MUB 0.59%
Mortgages: MBB 0.13%
Specialty: ZROZ -0.27%; TBT -0.32%
We remain about 45% long fixed income. We did have a hedge on, but we removed the hedge after the inflation data failed to move the needle at the long end. We re-entered our EM short and added to it. Follow the sick antelope and you will find the hyenas ready to eat.
We are not going to crow about the success of our macro model which called for 30y yields to peak between 4.60% and 4.80%. OK, we are. We see range-bound yields until it is obvious that the inflation meal has worked its way through the python. That could be months.
We expect that Colin is smiling, with Kevlar gloves laid to one side.
We are not experts at FX, but we think DXY will go to 83 in March, and that EURUSD is due for a hard reversal down with the Irish elections and Portugal debt problems now on the front burner.
ReplyDeleteThoughts on DF:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/253494-why-i-have-soured-on-dean-foods?source=yahoo
We sold it last week. No dividend, NO regrets.
Some stocks you love at $7.50, not at $10.50