NFLX (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 195.00
rev= 171.29; mid= 183.15
Well let's see. AH is showing a print of 202.10 so there was definitely a ramp after earnings. I'm still wondering how long their model will hold up since they don't own the infrastructure to transport data. But until then JBTFD.
Gold/Silver (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 48.811
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
rev= 46.062; mid= 47.433
The pressure to get silver down seems to be increasing. Silver price is dropping faster than the price of gold. Have they given up trying to push down gold and are putting all of their weight behind pushing down silver? Since COMEX grandfathered those who had outsized positions I'd say watch your back.
It's bad enough the SPX is sitting just under 1300 with the EOM a few days away. So if you're short I'd tell you to...
...that's only if the problems in Europe don't escalate further and crash their markets.
***Brian Sack to the PD's (re: recent auctions) "Give It/Them To Me Baby"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/asia-stocks-won-advance-for-fourth-day-as-wheat-oil-rise-china-rebounds.html
ReplyDeleteYen Weakens, Stocks Fluctuate After S&P Cuts Japan Debt Rating
...Roh roh. Little brother has no clothes. Can big brother be far behind?
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/business/27pension.html?_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss
ReplyDelete"Moody’s Investors Service has begun to recalculate the states’ debt burdens in a way that includes unfunded pensions, something states and others have ardently resisted until now."
...Roh Roh number 2. Don't they realize these we can't all be Greece? Can we?
But I ain't worried. Jimmy Cramer is watching for icebergs....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-26/u-s-muni-funds-lose-5-75-billion-in-11th-consecutive-week-of-withdrawals.html
ReplyDeleteU.S. Muni-Bond Funds Had $5.75 Billion in Net Withdrawals in Past Week
..Roh roh number 3. Just getting started?
S&P Downgrades Japan from AA to AA- http://tinyurl.com/6xgey83
ReplyDeleteUS next?
Initial claims WTE. Durable goods WTE. And away we go...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.grahampackaging.com/#index.cfm
ReplyDeleteticker GRM
appraise the Short side..
AAIP
MEH -- they might be very busy retooling all of their packaging so that it looks the same but holds 15% less product. Maybe everyone will buy more peanut butter and dish soap faster since they will run out sooner now that the containers are smaller.
ReplyDeleteNew highs in NFLX? UFB. If I miss shorting this thing when the time is right I will be seriously ticked off.
ReplyDelete300 MPG turbodiesel hybrid from VW
ReplyDeleteMorning room. Ain't life grand! Whodathought debt downgrades today might be the biggest story of the year...I think they might.
ReplyDeleteJ-
ReplyDeleteI hear ya on that..
was thinking about
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM
in specific..
thinking that 'parabolas', like that one, soon exhaust themselves, and, at least, 'partially' re-trace..
therefore, the mention of the 'Short side'..
AAIP
"Apparently not satisfied with being unable to fulfill its dual target of price stability and maximum employment the Federal Reserve has set itself a third mandate: higher asset prices.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking on CNBC at a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation-sponsored forum on small business lending last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was asked how, in essence, his $600 billion quantitative easing programme could be called a success when interest rates and commodity prices had actually risen in response.
"Our policies have contributed to a stronger stock market, just as they did in March of 2009, when we did the last iteration (of quantitative easing). The S&P 500 is up about 20 percent plus and the Russell 2000 is up 30 pct plus."
so . . .because Bernanke readily regurgitates stock market performance . . .we really know its all about the stock market-
guess the question is- when does the market expect QE3 news? Will the market get nervous in April? May? if QE3 isn't put out there as a possibility by the then?
Agree -- looks like it should at a minimum go revisit 15.
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/69ye5ev
ReplyDeleteHere It Comes: US Suspends New Issuance Under Supplementary Financing Program, $200 Billion Liquidity Gusher Imminent
Earlier this week we predicted that the US Treasury would wind down its SFP program, unleashing $200 billion in 56-day non-rollable "Fed bonds" on the market. The Treasury has just confirmed that starting February 3, this will be precisely the case. Per the Treasury, supplementary financing account to fall to USD 5bln, with the reason being the traditional explanation: decreasing funds in account as country nears debt ceiling.
As the revised table below shows, each Thursday beginning February 3 we will now see an incremental $25 billion in extra liquidity as the maturing 56-Day CMB is not rolled.
from zerohedge
Pre-Market Real-Time: 208.95 25.92 (14.16%) 9:14AM EST
ReplyDeleteNFLX
here:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NFLX&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
showed nice support @~180..
70+ x E = cheap !, no?
AAIP
The modern textbook of distorted economic theory continues to be written..interesting times...
ReplyDeleteUgh. More snow overnight.
AR,
ReplyDeletere: 09:17
if those 'Bills' are coming to Market, to be Sold, isn't that an 'anti-'Liquidity "Gusher"/Sponge ?
AAIP
morning... nflx a joke.. really.. i don't know how they do their books or what these idiots are on.. reminds me of siri.. shaking my head.
ReplyDeleteso what fundamentals do we have pushing the market to these heights?
ReplyDeletethe economy and pomo
in 2007, MS came up with an explanation, there were too few tickers to meet demand.. wish i'd saved that report.. anyway, turned out to be leverage..
Hey, weren't we talking recently that margin was back at those same levels again?
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/27/a-painful-day-for-netflix-nflx-shorts.html
ReplyDeletei have to subscribe today..
"Requests for unemployment benefits up due to snow"
ReplyDeleteWhen state offices, which had closed, reopened and people were able to file applications that pushed the number of requests up sharply, the analyst said.
was there a headline from the other week stating UE application took a dip because people couldn't get to the state offices to file?
ahab
ReplyDeleteProbably.
101 Days And Counting...
ReplyDeleteWEDNESDAY, JANUARY 26, 2011 AT 07:38PM
The S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average (DMA) yesterday for the 100th straight trading day. This marks the longest streak above this moving average in close to four years. It is also the 16th time in the history of the index that the S&P remained above its 50-DMA for more than 100 trading days. In a report we sent out yesterday to Bespoke Premium clients we looked to see how the market has historically performed in the months following similar streaks in the past. Does the market typically keep going higher? Does it correct? Or does it just trade sideways?
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/26/101-days-and-counting.html
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20110088.htm
ReplyDeleteKind of interesting to put an eyeball on the government release today.
Federal employee unemployment claims are almost double 12 months ago, and the trend seems to be increasing.
"Requests for unemployment benefits up due to snow"
ReplyDelete...But the MSM did not mention this as a reason then for BTE numbers...
...the Jim Cramerization of 'Merica..
Interesting H&S setting up on my current fav MOS.
ReplyDeleteBut the MSM did not mention this as a reason then for BTE numbers
ReplyDeleteexactly my point . . .
Incredible news in case you haven't heard! : )
ReplyDeletePending home sales rise 2% in December, marking fifth increase in six months
01/27/2011 10:02:16 AM
Anyone up for UUP? (i thot not.)
ReplyDeleteBruce
ReplyDeleteNumbers (when BTE) speak for themselves. When the numbers are WTE an excuse is required immediately. This is to stop the sheeple from peeking behind the curtain.
DRV at NEW 52 week low!!
ReplyDeleteGreat. The SPX tagged 1300 right before Brain Sack goes to work. Bah humbug.
ReplyDeletenew high in $wlsh today too.. broadest measure of the economy ?? well, not anymore..
ReplyDelete$rut and $bkx not playing catch-up..
ReplyDelete"Banker Pay Fueled Risk That Hobbled Economy, Crisis Panel Says"
ReplyDeleteit's funny- you get a government panel to study and conclude what everyone already knew
even breakingnews is breaking the news, and i thot they only covered catastophes, horror, and murder: Breaking News
ReplyDeleteS&P 500 index touches 1,300 level for the first time since September 2008 http://bit.ly/gg4Xp7
Wilshire 5k just retraced 76.4% of its 10/07-3/09 down move.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/procter-gamble-quarterly-profit-falls-28-2011-01-27
ReplyDelete"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Procter & Gamble Co. said Thursday its fiscal second-quarter earnings fell 28% due in part to higher costs that squeezed the company’s profit margin."
...Thank goodness commodity prices won't affect the wage earner. Leftback would not like it if fish and chips prices skyrocketed...
"Stop Loss Orders May Lock In Losses"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/bankers-pay-fueled-risk-as-regulators-were-outbid-for-talent-panel-says.html
I've often wondered the same thing- whether market makers have programs that find stops and trigger them . . .
ahab.. did you post wrong bloomberg article?
ReplyDeletei've completely lost my sense of humour now:
ReplyDeleteS&P 500 briefly tops 1,300 level, boosted by rally in Netflix
01/27/2011 10:23:22 AM
LOL Ahab, thats ALL they do.
ReplyDelete:)
just trying to keep everyone on their toes- correct "stop loss" article below-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/stop-loss-orders-may-lock-in-losses-when-stocks-plunge-in-volatile-markets.html
I-man- has always my experience- even if well below the support line
pending home sales rose faster than expected in December after the prior month's sales were revised lower
ReplyDeleteso . . .ugh . . .are the sales increases calculated from the revised lower figures?
lol
Just teasing you, Ahab.. but hilarious that they are just figuring out about that now!
ReplyDeleteStocks Up; Dow Passes 12,000; S&P Near 1,300
ReplyDeletewow . . .this is more exciting than seeing a girl in a tight sweater . . .
or seeing a girl out of a tight sweater...
ReplyDelete(substituting for Leftback until he arrives...)
Stocks up on "the economy", "nflx", & "snow".
ReplyDeleteUFB
effin banana republic
nobody cares about the AZ shooting, riots in Egypt, or anything else.
ReplyDeleteDow 12,000/S&P 1300!!!!!
Pathetic!
Where is Lefty today? I was wondering what he thought about TLT now...
ReplyDeleteBinT-
ReplyDeletethinking of my junior high school days- girls, tight sweaters . . . awkward moments when the bell rung . . .books placed strategically in front of certain body parts while getting to the next class . . .
I know we've all been there
Bruce.. keep that avatar!
ReplyDeleteRVW.. snow bound/lazy.. take your pick! TLT not broken yet.. still in a downtrend.. may see 88.. we've talked about that.. LB doesn't think 89 is in cards but we shall see.. any day it could break up or down..
I remember a Judy Blume book about that. I keep steering my oldest daughter away from the Judy Blume aisle in the library.
ReplyDeletegood going BB: Housing Wire
ReplyDeleteFreddie Mac mortgage rates on the rise across the board http://goo.gl/fb/V5kxb
snow bound/lazy
ReplyDeletespeaking of snow . . .what a show getting home from my office yesterday . . .
gridlock nightmare out here in DC
gotta roll . . .all be good-
ReplyDeleteThis should cheer Chet! Yahoo! Finance
ReplyDelete$GM to speed Volt sales to entire US by year's end.
http://yhoo.it/eTS7uc
Anon @ 10:53
ReplyDeleteMarkets go up on bad news, and down on good news all the time...
That is trading 101.
Run Forest Run!!!
ReplyDeleteGLD under 129..
ReplyDeleteRa, we are just alter ego's I guess...
ReplyDeleteForest just ran right into my bid.
I told ya USO 36 was a given.. now even lower i hope.. 34.50 would be nice.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/aig-shouldn-t-exist-ex-chairman-golub-says-urging-breakup-of-insurer.html
ReplyDeleteKaren, I cant wait to get a shot at the GLD around 110... maybe before summer.
ReplyDeleteThat's not even what I'm referring to.
ReplyDeleteI'm simply referring to narrowness in thought process. People suffering, starving, and dying all over the world while small bunch of fat and happy others seem only to care about 12000 or 1300 and how their central banker plans to keep them there.
I-Man
ReplyDeleteSince yesterday was not a long day candle wise I don't see the SPX correcting just yet. If today turns into engulfing then it's possible.
Sounds like that has more to do with a lack of concern for humanity, rather than a preoccupation with financial markets.
ReplyDeleteMaybe you should turn off the CNBC, and get off the "FED" dope.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pomo-comes-huge-submitted-accepted-ratio-market-dumps
ReplyDeleteRa 11:44
ReplyDeleteI like that...
obviously my ex-husband is hanging with a different set then I am: "I absolutely do not understand WTF is going on. [Bernekie] and bond purchases is now being thought of as genius."
ReplyDeletethis is gonna get very ugly very fast.. the market is stupid as a stump.. and the money/margin will fall over itself trying to get out..
i probably can't watch this: NicTrades Nicola
ReplyDeleteStoned to death: Horrific video of execution of girl, 19, killed by Afghan Taliban for running from arranged marriage http://bit.ly/e9pRvB
I dont mean to be harsh on you Anon, I can see that your heart is in the right place.
ReplyDeleteI only urge you to come with Light, and not Dark...
Saying things like:
"Fat and happy who dont care about the suffering and starving, et al"...
That is a statement of darkness, judgement, condemnation...
Instead, why not channel that energy into something good? Give 1/10th of your income to a charity of your choice, feed a homeless person, volunteer at an old folks home and read them a book...
Be the light in the world, dont come with darkness, when you do that, you manifest the very evil that your heart wishes to condemn.
The Fed part...
All I will say, is that I have found it much more relaxing, and rewarding, to view the markets as being dictated by JAH... not by banker petulance.
Obviously, they have an impact on markets, but they do not have control. They are only trying to do their best to ensure what they care about most... financial prosperity.
Are their hands clean? Nope.
Do their actions cause unintended and painful consequences? Absolutely.
Are you powerless to mope around in gloom, and be blinded by a hatred towards them?
Well, are you?
Thats all, descending soap box stairs...
Continue on.
if copper continues to rollover.. as i think it will (along with crude and gold) indices will follow..
ReplyDeleteindices
ReplyDeleteForex & Bonds Last Change Change %
ReplyDeleteEUR/USD 1.3695 -0.0002 -0.01%
USD/JPY 82.99 +0.74 +0.90%
GBP/USD 1.5905 -0.0008 -0.05%
5-Year Treasury 2.035 +0.034 +1.70%
10-Year Treasury 3.442 +0.014 +0.41%
30-Year Treasury 4.613 +0.015 +0.33%
http://finviz.com/
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=SPY&m=2011-02
ReplyDeletetake a look at the volume on the puts 125-127
so far as I can tell the combo trades being put on in there today are all bearish.
b22.
TNX, approaching the fifth touch of ~3.5%
ReplyDeleteoh, I should have said 123-127 on the Feb puts on SPY
ReplyDeletedeja vu when i read about the hermes (egypt hermes index down -6% yesterday down -10% today).. remember the precipitous overnight $ssec drop in the summer of 2007?? had an immediate impact on our market.. butterfly wings will be heard just the same.
ReplyDeleteegypt is not pakistan..
VIX Sonar Report: May/June Put stupid
ReplyDeletehttp://bit.ly/eomDFA
@Ahab,
ReplyDeleteI know you aren't around but hoping you come back to read
Regarding your quote from Bernanke, I'm curious, when you look at the Fed's balance sheet, especially the one's that break down what it's composed of, is that what you see, that QE1 started in March of 2009?
if so, could you explain that to me....
-I-Man
ReplyDeleteYou need not have been offended by my first comment. It was not directed at you or anyone else.
It was just a general statement. "Pathetic" I believe descibes the situation as a whole. I have no doubt it will rectify itself in due course.
Aside from whatever way I behave which is in better harmony, I think it's still apt to point out in rememberance that at present, the situation is in fact pathetic.
This shizz has doji written all over its grill.
ReplyDeleteI wasnt offended Anon, if anything, I'm just tired of hearing it, and it triggered some emo...
ReplyDeleteIf people spent half the energy they spend worrying about the negatives in the world, and instead focused it on being thankful for what they do have, and trying to manifest goodness...
Then there would be a lot less darkness.
I apologize for getting emo...
Re: Tape
ReplyDeleteProbably a decent shot at shorting a pivot high on the 5/1min DIA chart...
I realize no one else here even looks at the YM but lonely little I.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/egypt-opposition-leader-mohamed-elbaradei-arrives-cairo-lead-tomorrows-massive-protest
ReplyDelete"Luckily in the US, where nothing matters, not SHIBOR which just hit a ridiculous 8.4%..."
ReplyDelete(from the article above..)
I once was a goldbug and crudebull.. now i just shake my head..
ReplyDeleteChina Unveils Property Tax http://on.wsj.com/iaALmJ
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/rice-imports-by-bangladesh-to-double-on-panic-buying-prices-hasan-says.html
ReplyDeleteRice Imports by Bangladesh to Double on ‘Panic-Buying’
"The import target was raised to 1.2 million metric tons for the year ending June 30, from 600,000 tons set in November, said Badrul Hasan, director for procurement at the nation’s Directorate General of Food. That’s triple the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimate of 400,000 tons.
“The reason for the increase is panic-buying,” Hasan said in a phone interview from Dhaka yesterday. “There’s a sense of insecurity among the public. People who usually need 10 kilos buy more than 20 kilos. When farmers need to sell, they withhold their stocks” expecting a windfall as prices advance, he said."
..Ah, commodities, where is thy sting? 'Tis but a flesh wound..
"This Is Why This SHIBOR Surge Is Different Than 2007 And We Won't See A Massive Selloff In Equities"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/shibor-surge-2011-1#ixzz1CGAxQicO
I loved the It is Different This Time
Bruce.. thanks for that post.. all these riots and uprisings (not to mention EXTREME weather catastrophes) have reminded me that you can't eat gold or oil.. got rice, guns, and ammo?
ReplyDeletelaughing..
ReplyDeleteI-Man.. I've been keenly focused on the DIA and indu for days..
ReplyDeleteGot any camo panties?
ReplyDeleteI know Karen...I have talked to a number of restaurant owners here in town, and they are trying not to raise prices because of increased food costs.....
ReplyDeleteI-Man @ 1:10:
ReplyDeleteYou too are falling under the evil Leftback spell. You may need an exorcism...
YAAAAAWWWNNNNN
ReplyDeleteToo quiet...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY84MRnxVzo
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/has-the-dow-entered-a-new-trading-range/
ReplyDeleteBob,
ReplyDeleteYellow card!
(Although I had to watch it all the way to the end to be sure there were no redeeming qualities in the video..)
I know Bruce, I regretted it as soon as I posted it...
ReplyDeleteBesides, I'm pretty sure that chicks that wear Advantage Max4D panties only exist in duckhunter heaven.
Hello !!
ReplyDeleteThose 7s were gobbled up eagerly.
Bid/Cover 2.85
Coupon Rate 2.625%
Total Amount $29 B
Yield Awarded 2.744%
I-Man,
ReplyDeleteShaking my head.... ROR.
EEM and GDX are weak again.
ReplyDeleteI cannot convey to you what a disgusting mess the city is today, brown puddles everywhere and people getting very irritated. The Park is another story, ethereally beautiful, almost as lovely as our K.
4.60-4.62% area on TYX has been pretty solid.
ReplyDeleteGDP number tomorrow is supposed to be radioactive.
I wonder...
Got this short on a tight leash...
ReplyDeleteStale usually equals, Bail.
Here we go...
ReplyDeleteThinking we gots some unfinished biz down at the o'night lows...
That's funny I. I have always thought that there was a secret tribe of women running around the woods up here, Camo would of course be necessary.
ReplyDeleteI keep looking for them on my long walks, no evidence as of yet, but still looking.
I hear they're real responsive to a well toned mallard feeder call, Bobby.
ReplyDeleteThey'd need arctic camo here. This is ridiculous. Everyone on my street has completely given up ...no driveway has been shoveled in weeks.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/lehman-sued-by-pulsar-claiming-450-million-taken-from-segregated-account.html
ReplyDeleteand in other news: the total losses of Egypt Stock Market today 64 Bill EGP around 10 Bill USD #Egypt $EGPT http://egyptetf.com
global warming may be your demise, Jennifer.
ReplyDeleteMy husband grew up on a farm. He is always quick to point out that cold winters help kill bugs. There should hardly be any this summer.
ReplyDeleteJennifer.. just opened up the house.. breaking 70 easily in the sun here today.. it was colder in than out!
ReplyDeleteMight be a nice 30 pt dow drop setting up here...
ReplyDeleteI, give wti a look...
ReplyDeletearen't crude longs taking pause with the drop--despite tensions in middle east and dollar drop?? china tightening and US ECONOMY to blame?
ReplyDeleteDont tempt I.
ReplyDeleteCBO's Elmendorf: 'Very Difficult' To Know If Debt Crisis Looms http://goo.gl/AOFsL
ReplyDelete"..the longer the U.S. waits to begin reducing its budget deficits the harder it will be to enact policies that are not "disruptive" to the economy."
People
ReplyDeleteThe US debt crisis is not imminent. Look at JGBs. Did they melt down today on the S&P downgrade? I think not. These problems are far away. EVEN FOR JAPAN.
The silly little markets always melt down first. The bond markets matter, and if they blow up, things will get ugly. No, the liquidity will be drained from the yappy little markets first, the big dogs will be fine.
If you want to look for a meltdown, commodities and small caps are the place to look. China and other EMs are also in the frame.
Anyone getting long Egypt? I'd wait a few days....
regarding AAII, or any sentiment readings
ReplyDeletesentiment moderates at tops which, it's far more typical to see sentiment indicators hit extremes prior to the top and they moderate at the actual top
as for the chart, that's a massive trading range on that chart so the top level of the red line should be broken by a significant/meaningful amount before drawing any conclusions on how to trade it. From a trading perspective I think it's valid to argue the breakout should be 3% or more above the top of the thick red line, so if the top of the range is roughly 11,800 then we need to see 12,154 before drawing any conclusions about it, not that far away but considering all other technical evidence that will be no easy task.
What's more, it is probable if that happens due to the quickness and size of the rally off the march 09 lows that a retest then of the lower end of the red line would occur after the intial breakout and before the market were to move truly higher.
the people putting on the big spreads today on SPY stand to make millions if it plays out like I describe above.
b22
The massive meltdown in JGBs. Oh wait...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/japan/
Yeah, dont sweat the debt... aint like we're gonna pay it off anyway.
ReplyDelete:)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/the-three-trillion-dollar-war-2/
ReplyDeleteTBT gave it up.. i still thing the equity meltdown is coming..
ReplyDeleteKeep your eye on EEM, FXI and GDX weakness.
ReplyDeleteShort the weak, not the strong.
aint like we're gonna pay it off anyway.
ReplyDeleteNo. Your kids are... crying and sobbing....
"Look at JGBs. Did they melt down today on the S&P downgrade? I think not."
ReplyDeleteAnd why would they have. The ratings agencies are truly worthless, today the S&P told the market what it's already known about Japan for over a decade now.
i still thing the equity meltdown is coming..
ReplyDeleteWe almost had a meltdown on your icon change yesterday.
S&P told the market what it's already known about Japan for over a decade now.
ReplyDelete++ and ROR.
IQI retreating after its rally. MUB too.
ReplyDeleteThe muni melt is like a tuna melt, we will be eating it every week.
No wonder some traders opt to wake up at 5 in So Cal:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/winter-storm-may-ease-as-new-yorkers-start-the-day-update1-.html
Anyone want to handicap GDP after the appalling data today?
ReplyDeleteWTE, DGDF GGUF or BTE, SPX HOY? ROR.
also, as someone pointed out first in that slide at BR's
ReplyDeletethat super star gigantor H&S looks better than ever now on the DOW/S&P having being at 12k and 1.3k respectively.
it's damn near textbook with a down sloping neckline and perfect volume
I'm not sure what to make of it, I just note it's there, it's such a giant pattern there's no great way to trade it without trying to "call a top"
IBM Whipsaw Shows Market-Wide Structural Problem
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/41261126/
i can't find a uso chart that says buy me on any time scale..
ReplyDeleteand looking at dia gives me the shivers.. who in their right mind would buy that here and now..
ReplyDeleteNLY and CIM paid divvies today. BIG juicy ones.
ReplyDeleteThe reflation smarties don't like these stocks, b/c "when rates rise", the cost of doing business will rise for these REITs and dividends will fall.
Guess what AFIT2BNL thinks of this argument? We'll see who is right, equity sell-side analysts or the bond guys.
Reflation and EMs to sell off, dividend stocks to gain.
ReplyDeleteThe best trade for 2011. Sell your miners, buy utilities.
Such an odd market, many garish and overpriced whores co-existing with undervalued virtue.
From Karen's link:
ReplyDelete"Traders tell me that all the trades were done on the New York Exchange, where, apparently, liquidity was thin."
I saw that spike. What about NBBO? Does that only apply to NASDAQ trades?
We did say Ts would rally after the auctions, right?
ReplyDeleteBond market took one look at today's economic data, another at the TV news of Egypt, and there's your result.
here we go.. hang on to your hats.. i wouldn't be surprised about a gap down open tomorrow either..
ReplyDeleteGot a good deal on some 30y strips before the auction, thanks as always lb
ReplyDeletea quick glimpse of the retail world:
ReplyDelete1. I have had about three dozen clients call me this week to tell me they no longer wish to be in fixed income and prefer equity "due to the improving economy" Existing clients are also asking me to remove equity hedges.
2. So far I've had 4 existing clients call this month to inquire about starting to day trade their accounts
3. I have recieved two e-mails in the last two weeks from clients regarding stocks where both of them claimed that the stocks could "be the next Microsoft", both were green energy stocks but different companies.
4. Mom called me to tell me that she heard on the news things were getting better. Mom's a pretty good contrarian indicator over the years.
5. The questions about buying gold in virtually every meeting remains fairly consistent. Nobody is bringing up silver, it's always about gold. One guy that told me he wanted gold, I said "what about some silver as well", his response was "why would I want to own any silver" to which I replied,.... for the same reason you want to own the gold!!!
I tend to document periods like this in my trading diary. I've seen this off an on since 09 but this is a little bit more extreme and widespread than normal.
wti still trying to find a bottom.
ReplyDeleteGDP consensus 3.5%
ReplyDeleteIt might even be higher. With no real growth but a 10% jump in $gaso you might be able to generate a BENNY BUCKS Q4 GDP of 4-5%.
Tomorrow might be a wonderful opportunity to buy Treasuries if the GDP is hot and there is a sell off in bonds.
wti bottom is a long way down, bob.. i don't expect it to get there today : )
ReplyDeleteoh, and a note on my #3
ReplyDeletethose were different people than the guy I mentioned a few weeks back telling me that C shoudl quadruple in price by the end of the next year.
I've seen this off an on since 09 but this is a little bit more extreme and widespread than normal.
ReplyDeleteThe MSM propaganda machine is in full swing here.
Stocks are up on THE ECONOMY.
China will drive anyway, we are just following.
SHIBOR spiking as Chinese banks are starved of capital.
Chinese lending is now tighter than Ks panties.
Just to be clear, I'm just riding the short to the bottom of the range on the 30 min chart.
ReplyDeleteNot calling for anything rowdy.
Bear traps are in season... regardless of the reason.
In other words, I'll be back to I and I dip buyin ways before the close, probably...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.staradvertiser.com/news/breaking/Social_Security_fund_slides_into_permanent_deficit_.html
ReplyDeletethat would have been a good SOTU topic
ReplyDeletewti bottom is a long way down
ReplyDeleteShow us more bottoms, by all means.
We still think TLT is making a nice one. I like a scenario where we get an outlier econ data point (GDP, PPI etc) and TLT makes one sharp downward spike below 90, then bounces, consolidates and rallies like crazy after that.
The UK is ahead of us in this reflationary-deleveraging cycle, Swerve has already said the inflation spike is temporary and that's why they will not hike. I think this is very likely correct for UK and even more so for US where slack in the labor market is even greater.
Ummmm EOM is here. Even I know to hold off on shorts when the big push is staring you in the face. I'd wait until after the first few days of the new month. BUT with the US Treasury ending the SFP program that idea might get tossed out also.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/att-profit-contracts-after-charges-2011-01-27?siteid=rss&rss=1
ReplyDeleteI would like to short but I don't want to get in front of the GDP bus. A big number tomorrow and they will buy everything, even China.
ReplyDeleteAfter tomorrow morning things should be a little clearer.
Well, I saw that smoke signal...
ReplyDeleteBid em up.
Futs can't even break VWAP. This bites.
ReplyDeleteFinally warm enough to run...gonna get out of the mine and do that in a few.
ReplyDeleteT back to yielding 6%. There are worse investments.
ReplyDeletehttp://scoop.todayshow.com/_news/2011/01/27/5935959-report-charlie-sheen-rushed-to-hospital
ReplyDeleteReport: Charlie Sheen rushed to hospital
Chlamydia abscess of the appendix...
How does your appendix catch chlamydia?
ReplyDelete"How does your appendix catch chlamydia?"
ReplyDeleteA: Octo-mom?
According to the site, two women exited the house at the same time Sheen left for the hospital.
ReplyDeleteAsk them.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it happens that quickly. How does it present?
ReplyDeleteThe two women show up at his house, things get going and suddenly they see his infected appendix and run out of the house?
appendage maybe...
Couldnt resist dipping my toe into NFLX on the short side. More of a monitoring position than a trade, but this is just ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteLots of pathogens can inhabit the appendix. Some people think it is actually designed to be a sort of holding area for bacteria so that you can repopulate the intestine after sickness. All speculation...
ReplyDeleteTried to nibble on T. Not quick enough.
ReplyDeleteThe same with K, really.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 3:08 -- diet coke just came out my nose.
ReplyDeleteLB, how are you buying Egypt? Is there an ETF out there that trades or something with exposure? (I dont have trading ability on the Cairo Stock Exchange unfortunately)
ReplyDeleteNevermind, I found it: http://www.google.com/finance?q=egpt
ReplyDeleteDiet Coke!! for shame, Jennifer...
ReplyDeleteWe all have our vices...
ReplyDeleteI don't know what to make of NFLX, looks like maybe and H&S failed, peak of the left shoulder is 10/27/10
ReplyDeleteall around though....314% one year return, a p/e that must be a misprint, right, Cramer says it's a bull market like 82-84 or 94096, just broader
what's not to love?
Could be worse...friend/neighbor only drinks MCD's diet coke...drives by me and my kids at the bus stop at 7:10 every morning as she races to MCD to get her morning diet coke.
ReplyDeletei believe i was one week to the day early calling the dow overdone.. my how time flies when you are not having fun!
ReplyDeleteoh, i get it.. we still need an spx close above 1300 and indu above 12000.. dumb me.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow GDP at 8.30, then JOHNNY hour.
ReplyDeleteConsumer confidence 9.55, not so hot?
More interesting, on Monday:
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Monday's data might be limp, flaccid, lacking firmness.
Quite excited about bond market entry points tomorrow.
I bought some Pepsi with the throwback cans and real sugar in them. I'd been sober but going through some w/drawal since 12/28 but it went down pretty smooth yesterday I have to admit
ReplyDeleteI'd be a pop junkie if I wasn't married, I admit it.
we still need an spx close above 1300 and indu above 12000.
ReplyDeleteYou know what that means....
Eminem has a thing for Diet Coke, as I'm to understand it
ReplyDeleteI feel bad for him, just got done reading the recent interview he did in RS, it was sad.
I think "anonymous" was being smurky with the appendix comment...the diet Coke coming out the nose...horrors!
ReplyDeleteJV Macro Theory
ReplyDeleteWhere do you think all that money coming out of gold and oil is going?
Hint:
It will drive you crazy trying to call a top on US equities...
"An example from the monkey: the higher it climbs, the more you see of its behind” German proverb
ReplyDeleteFor those on the West Coast who would like to share the joys of shoveling and waiting for public transportation:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12300801
no way, I !! nope, no way.. you will see.
ReplyDeletethe same folks that think spx is going to 1500, think crude will go to 150.. and gold to 2k
ReplyDeleteLB, how are you buying Egypt?
ReplyDeleteWe are not. You are a daring knife catcher. Good on you !
LOL. If GDP is hot, buy stoxx on "THE ECONOMY".
If GDP is weak, buy stoxx on "THE BEN BERNANK".
this is just a blow-off top if you ask me..
ReplyDeleteI live for afternoon ramping.
ReplyDeleteWe'll settle this in the first week of March, Karen...
ReplyDeleteAt the I-Top
We love it when you say "blow" and "top".
ReplyDeleteI am not sure if this is really climactic.
No shorts to squeeze?
Gold and Oil are not the Dow and SPX...
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe a little SPX...
Markets always reach a peak on good news.
ReplyDeleteA red hot GDP would be a lovely way to climax, Karen.
What would the catalyst be for the I-Top?
A massive NFP number? Can that ever happen?
How about we get a Top in commodities, China and EMs first?
ReplyDeleteThen the spooz and dow roll over later, finally the nazz?
wait, what just happened? Do I see red? Paging cold steel...
ReplyDeleteI-Man.. then you think the ONE TRADE is off? cuz it isn't.. we're just going thru a little trend change here.. and the commodities are leading.. despite, shockingly, enuf, the effing usd..
ReplyDelete