A Blog about Trading, Technical Analysis and other Super Important Things
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Morning Corner 1.26.11
If a tree falls in a forest and no is there to hear it fall then does it make a sound? If the SOTU is on all major networks and one watches the NFL Network instead then does one miss anything?
I did manage to successfully deliver a 3 foot cubed solar system project to my daughter's 3rd grade classroom this morning...I hope she gets a good grade on it as her father and I have worked very hard on it :-)
What's the deal with the line in the sand just under 1282? We broke through briefly yesterday, I got positioned for follow through, and then...cold steel. I am my best contrary indicator.
"...Regulation is the Cause of the Crisis, Not the Solution
Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture Blog is a bright guy. He is one of the few who saw this coming. He wrote a good book about the crisis.
This post is not an attempt to take any of that away. As I said at the outset, I do not disagree with any of the points he made in his post.
My only dispute is those points miss "The Big Picture". The Big Picture is that regulation is the cause of this crisis not the solution.
The solution involves abolishing the fed and putting the US on a sound financial footing. In turn, that means we need to kill fractional reserve lending.
If we fail to do that, Bernanke specifically, and central bankers in general, will cause the next financial crisis by supporting exponentially growing systems that cannot possibly be sustained.
No regulation other than reversing the regulation that created the Fed, then abolishing fractional reserve lending can possibly prevent the next crisis.
Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Here is a video Bernanke needs to ponder with his 2% inflation target, and the World Economic Forum with its 4% GDP target and 6% credit growth target. After playing the video, think about China's 10% target with its economy overheating already..." http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
wish i had LB's conviction on TLT.. it is not that i don't agree with his premise.. it's just that i'm a believer in Murphy's law.. as well as the Law of Unintended Consequences, not to mention Pandora's Box!
As a child of 1959, I obviously enjoyed the Sputnik reference in SOTU. Of course, Kennedy pledged to put a man on the moon before the end of the decade. Obanana is more likely to send an unmanned probe to Uranus.
I sort of watched the SOTU last night, my observation is that it was another "yes we can" speech and that Obama isn't in touch with the current social mood, he's still hanging on to the old one.
EEM surged this morning for no apparent reason, other than to take out my stops perhaps. I am not going to fight this for now. Watching for a re-entry point.
Would have been fun to buy FAS the night before the FASB rule change and ride it up from the single digits to about 120 in April. Not that I'm bitter or anything.
I did find it interesting that Obama wishes to transform the US into a tech juggernaught. I thought that private industry had done that on its own, and that that is what separates us from other fully mature societies like Britain or France.
...I hope this doesn't mean we will have Amtrak tech in the future...
ahab.. i skimmed it when you first posted it.. i agree with Lo on Sarbannes.. and it wasn't even upheld.. at least for Wall Street's financiers.. I disagreed with his notion of having retail investors licensed!! for crying out loud.. that takes the seatbelt law to the next level..
agree with Maclean on this especially: After all, for rich investors who snap up Facebook shares by way of the Goldman Sachs deal or through SharesPost and SecondMarket, the ultimate way to profit will be for Facebook to go public. By then, though, the value of the shares will have been bid up, and much of the company’s best growth may be behind it. The very real risk is public stock market investors could be left with an overpriced heap.
And Templeton completely on this: “Mass media, especially TV today, is so short-term that few in its audience grasp the lasting damage and corrective impact which will continue to linger from the greatest financial crash in world history,” he said. In the wake of that very crash, short-term thinking is as much a problem as ever before.
I thought the most interesting points were that the NYSE is not really a real market anymore- and fewer companies bother with an IPO when they can use other avenues to secure investors-
regarding the idea that the only way to cash out is with an IPO- what's stopping someone from selling his stake to another at a higher price on an unregulated exchange?
"As we discovered in our own banking crisis two and a half years ago, “riskless” assets are great, until everyone owns too much of them and then discovers they weren’t so riskless after all."
I-Man -- thanks. Thing is, I knew it. Corey at Afraid to Trade had a comment sometime in the last couple of days/weeks, about how if the market is at a certain place, and you think something should happen, and it doesn't, then get prepared quick for the opposite to happen in a spectacular fashion. I just couldn't execute fast enough. It sucks.
"Noting that the major financial institutions are 20% larger than they were before the financial crisis, Barofsky said that the financial markets simply don’t believe that the government will allow one of these biggest banks to collapse, regardless of what they say will happen. Those big banks enjoy access to cheaper credit than smaller institutions, based on that implicit government guarantee, he said."
TARP Report: Homeowner-Aid Efforts Are Falling Short
any attempt to keep folks in their homes is a complete waste of time and resources-
the government slopping shit up as usual- and this-
An additional 2,200 have received federal assistance to hand over the deed to their properties or complete short sales under a program where homeowners get permission from their banks to sell their homes for less than the outstanding mortgage debt.
federal assistance? People can do this on their own . . .talk about mamby pamby land
Not a great way to interpret Dow Theory there, lots of times what you see happen is people that sort of do halfway dow theory think that every non-confirmation is bearish. it isn't, it's just a non-confirmation. If you take a hard look at dow theory signals during the 1940-1949 period and follow the top analysts doing dow theory from that time you'll see how that crushed people, if trying to trade with DOW theory on that short a time period as those charts (which the theory is really not useful for, it's better for longer term or Primary Trend trading) the best thing you could do during non-confirmation is sit in cash or hold longs in a larger up trend but perhaps tighten stops. following the theory you wouldn't short because there has been no dow theory sell signal given.
The truth from TraderMark.. (and it goes along with Ahab's Maclean article:
"I am chuckling as the financial infotainment TeeVee crew is clucking that this massive deficit will have the market worried. Are you kidding? As I've written countless times, the equity market loves bigger and bigger deficits because it takes from the future to give to today. The market does not worry about implications years (or even quarters) in the future. Long term is next week. "
Do you get the economist delivered to your house? I stopped, it would show up a week late, after I saw it on news stands here.
When I stopped delivery, they stopped shipping it to the stores. I asked at the bookstore and all they had to say was that "it comes from pretty far away..."
Then I see it in the supermarket checkout lines, on time, for about 2 weeks.
Very bad/spotty distribution. Just wondering if it has changed.
that's a long discussion about what's happening there
here's the funny thing though, just look at the chart, Joe W is doing what,...... saying that there is no reason to worry about the debt? lol.....by that same standard you could have said the same thing at the peak of the real estate bubble by historical comparison in that chart
so rather than having a 5 day econ discussion, just realize what he did there was of 0 value.
SPY is up 194% since it began trading. As shown below, the compounded return of buying at the close and selling at the open has done much better than that at +378% over the same time period. On the other hand, if you bought at the open and sold at the close every day since SPY started trading, you would be down 38.6%! This raises the question -- why even trade when the market is open?
Man Seeks Protection From Sex-Crazed Wife in Germany
"A Turkish man living in Germany with his wife of 18 years went to police for protection from her insatiable appetite for sex, Bild newspaper reported Wednesday.
The man went to police in the southwestern German city of Waiblingen on Tuesday.
He told police he slept on a sofa for the past four years in a futile attempt to escape the voracious embraces of his wife.
German police said the exhausted man -- who fathered two children with his wife -- decided to get a divorce and move out of the home."
...Yes, Leftback my man, some men just must be irresistible..
I wonder if FOMC is going to try to front run the FCIC report tomorrow, supposedly they came up with evidence for actually putting some people in jail.
"I wouldn't trust the Fed to tell me what the weather is doing in the next 10 minutes even if they were looking out the window," said Michael Pento, a Fed critic and senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital in New York. "Their predictive powers are set by agendas, they're set by certain proclivities. Clearly, they're woefully inadequate in terms of predicting GDP, inflation and anything else economically."
China Lifts Minimum Down Payment For Second Homes to 60% as Prices Climb
"China increased the minimum down payment for second-home purchases and asked local governments to boost land supply, seeking to further limit the risk of asset bubbles forming in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
“China will continue to effectively curb investment and speculative purchases of houses to consolidate and expand on previous measures,” the State Council said in a statement on its website yesterday. The minimum down payment for second house purchases rises to 60 percent from 50 percent, it said.
Premier Wen Jiabao said on Jan. 18 that the government will “resolutely” implement controls on the real-estate market in the first quarter, including curbing speculation and increasing supplies of affordable housing. Property prices rose for a 19th month in December, even after the government suspended mortgages for third-home purchases and restricted loans to developers."
"A UNION chief yesterday criticised the European Commission for taking advantage of its position as the country's new paymaster to reduce wages for the nation's poorest workers.
European Trade Union Confederation General Secretary John Monks met with EU economics chief Olli Rehn yesterday to express his concerns at the handling of the EU-IMF bailout in Ireland."
..You sleep with the devil, you may get stuck with the pitchfork a time or two...
Our guess is that claims and durables will probably be bullish for equities tomorrow, and bearish bonds.
Then things will switch around at noon before the 7y auction and what may be a sell the news reaction to GDP on Friday. We have seen this pattern often.
"we are in such a bull market it's staggering, its staggering"
"if you want to short something, don't short stocks, short bonds, that's the other side of the trade"
"its a powerful bull market, it's like 82-84, it's like 94-96, it has all the characteristics of those but broader, I feel like I'm all alone in the wilderness here"
Concern Grows Over Lack of Financial Disclosure by State, Local Governments
"Amid governments' financial woes, meanwhile, angry investors are finding themselves blindsided by bad news. Those concerns are reflected in a forthcoming study that shows that public issuers routinely file information about their financial health well beyond the date they promise to bondholders, if at all."
So...how come it seems that pundits only get credit for rallies, like the Tepper rally? I'd be all for the DeMark correction, especially if it started RIGHT NOW.
Jenn, FCX, GDX, GLC, USO.. all at identical chart points today on QE2 and DGD Forever.. (or a dead cat bounce?) still in trend down mode.. all depends on your state of mind, i guess.
Is the SPX shortable? made a new closing high today..
FOMC day again, the day after SOTU. An uninterrupted stream of Benny bucks, together with POTUS fiscal stimulus drivel last night created a risk-on environment yet again, and HY outperformed IG as USTs were used to light bonfires in the streets. The recovery in munis continued. Mortgages were weak on a big YC steepener.
2s30s and 10s30s continued to be stretched as widely as.. well, very wide, almost unnaturally so, almost as if someone mysterious were trying to manipulate the yield curve. Perish the thought.
Outside, the snow continued to fall, and all was still....
Durables, claims in the morning and then at 1pm the 7y auction tomorrow, expect weakness in Ts beforehand and strength afterwards. China likes to do stuff on Fridays, so Thursday afternoons can be a time for Mr Market to anticipate Voldemort's macro machinations.
We sold another chunk of JNK and bought some TLT.
We are now 11% HYG/JNK, 10% AGG, 5% TIP, 6% TLT and 3% LQD (35%). Equity longs 14%, no shorts overnight.
ES in the AH
Ramp me~, Amadeus!..
ReplyDelete~~
as an aside, so many have taken to using STFU, that, for some reason, when I see "SOTU", it, first, registers as "STFU" ..
~~
"...and one watches the NFL Network instead then does one miss anything?"
A: Nyet.
~~
Crude Oil 86.83 +0.64 +0.74
Natural Gas 4.466 -0.024 -0.53
Corn 644.00 -11.25 -1.75
Soybeans 1374.5 -30.0 -2.18
30yr Bond 121.18750 -0.53125 -0.44
10yr Note 120.921875 +0.687500 +0.57
NY Gold 1331.4 -0.9 -0.07
NY Silver 26.980 +0.175 +0.65
Emini S&P 1292.75 +5.25 +0.41
Emini Nasdaq 2309.25 +8.00 +0.35
Emini Dow 11950 +28 +0.23
http://www.ino.com/
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZS
'beans looking to check out ~13.00?
AAIP
Maybe you missed Marc Faber calling Obama a "prostitute"...
ReplyDeleteBut really, that wasn't so bad...
Now - If he'd called a prostitute "Obama", then that would have been an insult!
CV
ReplyDeleteI watched that interview yesterday.
Looking foward to today's communication from Neely...have a bad feeling about his current count.
ReplyDeleteI did manage to successfully deliver a 3 foot cubed solar system project to my daughter's 3rd grade classroom this morning...I hope she gets a good grade on it as her father and I have worked very hard on it :-)
ReplyDeleteFutures off their high and may be going into withdrawal.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the deal with the line in the sand just under 1282? We broke through briefly yesterday, I got positioned for follow through, and then...cold steel. I am my best contrary indicator.
ReplyDeleteI can't take all that take about making America the greatest nation on earth.. what an ignorant and lowly mentality..
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I am great cuz i got coffee : ) Morning!
as an aside, how can you follow the worst act on earth, and be a disappointment? Tough, but our pOtus has managed it.
ReplyDeletek-
ReplyDeleteBush III / 43 Part II
Jennifer
ReplyDeleteWell 1283.56 is the weekly pivot point for SPX. market might be trying to hold that line.
and this from Truthdig (a progressive rag) on our man Obama's speech last night- they weren't impressed-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.truthdig.com/report/item/hogwash_mr_president_20110126/
a must read: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/crescenzi-tracking-inflection-point-radioactive-hyperinflationary-yucca-mountain-excess-liqu
ReplyDeleteThanks, AR. Certainly seems like it.
ReplyDelete"...Regulation is the Cause of the Crisis, Not the Solution
ReplyDeleteBarry Ritholtz at the Big Picture Blog is a bright guy. He is one of the few who saw this coming. He wrote a good book about the crisis.
This post is not an attempt to take any of that away. As I said at the outset, I do not disagree with any of the points he made in his post.
My only dispute is those points miss "The Big Picture". The Big Picture is that regulation is the cause of this crisis not the solution.
The solution involves abolishing the fed and putting the US on a sound financial footing. In turn, that means we need to kill fractional reserve lending.
If we fail to do that, Bernanke specifically, and central bankers in general, will cause the next financial crisis by supporting exponentially growing systems that cannot possibly be sustained.
No regulation other than reversing the regulation that created the Fed, then abolishing fractional reserve lending can possibly prevent the next crisis.
Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Here is a video Bernanke needs to ponder with his 2% inflation target, and the World Economic Forum with its 4% GDP target and 6% credit growth target. After playing the video, think about China's 10% target with its economy overheating already..."
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
wish i had LB's conviction on TLT.. it is not that i don't agree with his premise.. it's just that i'm a believer in Murphy's law.. as well as the Law of Unintended Consequences, not to mention Pandora's Box!
ReplyDeleteAs a child of 1959, I obviously enjoyed the Sputnik reference in SOTU. Of course, Kennedy pledged to put a man on the moon before the end of the decade. Obanana is more likely to send an unmanned probe to Uranus.
ReplyDeleteWe would love to hear more about Pandora's box....
ReplyDeleteBack later to discuss bonds. Meetings meetings meetings....
ReplyDeleteI sort of watched the SOTU last night, my observation is that it was another "yes we can" speech and that Obama isn't in touch with the current social mood, he's still hanging on to the old one.
ReplyDeleteso 2008
EEM surged this morning for no apparent reason, other than to take out my stops perhaps. I am not going to fight this for now. Watching for a re-entry point.
ReplyDeleteHardly any carry trade today. Mr Sack is doing it on his own, hedgies on the sidelines...
ReplyDeletelooking at $TYX.. beginning Jan 2009.. roughly
ReplyDeleteup 5 months 26 - 52
down 5 months 52 - 39
up 5 months 39 - 48.5
down 5 months 48.5 - 34.5
up 5 months 34.5 - 46.38 (today)
TLT monthly chart supports the view that it should rise for 5 months now, i suppose.
short term, TBT is in an uptrend, but perhaps the turn is here.
Dow theory non-confirmation?
ReplyDeletehttp://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/01/divergences-are-building.html
Sighing.. but i don't think the market can run to 1500 or thereabouts without the unintended consequence of rising rates..
ReplyDeleteEEM on monthly says do not touch me!
ReplyDelete90.00 TLT110219P00090000 0.74 0.09 0.73 0.75 10 3,257
ReplyDelete91.00 TLT110219P00091000 1.10 0.14 1.07 1.10 72 7,254
92.00 TLT110219P00092000 1.58 0.18 1.53 1.58 97 2,027
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT+Options
Feb91p looks Plump..
good day for fading Puts( on TLT )..
AAIP
"I sort of watched the SOTU last night"
ReplyDelete---
I slept through the whole thing... Which is another way of saying... "I caught all the best parts"...
would have been fun to buy HYG in March of 09 at 52 and take it up to near 92 this month...
ReplyDeleteWould have been fun to buy FAS the night before the FASB rule change and ride it up from the single digits to about 120 in April. Not that I'm bitter or anything.
ReplyDeleteDiana Olick
ReplyDeleteDOW 12000: Last was 06/08...housing starts were running at 1m ann back then. Now we're at 529,000.
I did find it interesting that Obama wishes to transform the US into a tech juggernaught. I thought that private industry had done that on its own, and that that is what separates us from other fully mature societies like Britain or France.
ReplyDelete...I hope this doesn't mean we will have Amtrak tech in the future...
new 52 week low in VXX.. LOL.
ReplyDeletemy posts appear to be targeted and vaporized-
ReplyDeleteanyway read this article . . .and report back . .(be quick as this post may self destruct)-
http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/01/24/the-stock-market-is-for-suckers/print/
ahab.. i skimmed it when you first posted it.. i agree with Lo on Sarbannes.. and it wasn't even upheld.. at least for Wall Street's financiers.. I disagreed with his notion of having retail investors licensed!! for crying out loud.. that takes the seatbelt law to the next level..
ReplyDeleteagree with Maclean on this especially: After all, for rich investors who snap up Facebook shares by way of the Goldman Sachs deal or through SharesPost and SecondMarket, the ultimate way to profit will be for Facebook to go public. By then, though, the value of the shares will have been bid up, and much of the company’s best growth may be behind it. The very real risk is public stock market investors could be left with an overpriced heap.
And Templeton completely on this: “Mass media, especially TV today, is so short-term that few in its audience grasp the lasting damage and corrective impact which will continue to linger from the greatest financial crash in world history,” he said. In the wake of that very crash, short-term thinking is as much a problem as ever before.
"Obama wishes to transform the US into a tech juggernaught..."
ReplyDeleteYeah... we're like 28th & 29th in math & science scores compared to ROW... Tech juggernaut here we come...
If we could only find a way to EXPORT Snooki & Dancing with the Stars we'd be in fat city!
karen-
ReplyDeleteI thought the most interesting points were that the NYSE is not really a real market anymore- and fewer companies bother with an IPO when they can use other avenues to secure investors-
regarding the idea that the only way to cash out is with an IPO- what's stopping someone from selling his stake to another at a higher price on an unregulated exchange?
"As we discovered in our own banking crisis two and a half years ago, “riskless” assets are great, until everyone owns too much of them and then discovers they weren’t so riskless after all."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/regling-efsf-efsf-bonds-klaus-regling/1/26/2011/id/32399
@ Jenn, re: your 9:16
ReplyDeleteYou need to think like a floor trader...
Their primary skill is not in manipulating markets, but in manipulating traders.
Anytime you see a clearly defined support/res area on the short term charts, you want to be very cautious in trading off that level.
Stops, buystops, decisions... none of those things belong close to that price level.
Did you put your Dow 12k panties on?
ReplyDeleteNot you, I-Man...
ReplyDeleteDude I've been wearing a Dow 12K loin cloth since last month.
ReplyDeleteHemp loin cloth, pardon I.
ReplyDeleteAnd you look marrrrvelllous in it, I-Man...
ReplyDeletei just read that DeMark is supposed to be on CNBC today..
ReplyDeleteyesterday, it was suggested that the spx turnaround was due to the Birinyi CNBC appearance calling for 2854 (SPX not NAZ!) by 2013..
jeff cooper is very focused on 1296
lefty,
ReplyDeleteI will have to give you cred...you may be smarter than you look. No, let's change that to you ARE smarter......
I-Man -- thanks. Thing is, I knew it. Corey at Afraid to Trade had a comment sometime in the last couple of days/weeks, about how if the market is at a certain place, and you think something should happen, and it doesn't, then get prepared quick for the opposite to happen in a spectacular fashion. I just couldn't execute fast enough. It sucks.
ReplyDeletewill these do?
ReplyDeletekaren!
ReplyDeleteLeftback won't be worth shooting all day now.
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/wall-st-too-big-to-fail/1/26/2011/id/32407
ReplyDelete"Noting that the major financial institutions are 20% larger than they were before the financial crisis, Barofsky said that the financial markets simply don’t believe that the government will allow one of these biggest banks to collapse, regardless of what they say will happen. Those big banks enjoy access to cheaper credit than smaller institutions, based on that implicit government guarantee, he said."
@ Jenn
ReplyDeleteIts only human nature...
Here's a little trick:
Next time that action happens, look to fade the support break, ie: buy right after the whoosh. Flip the script in the opposite trend.
Works like a charm.
Here's an even simpler trick.
ReplyDeleteJBTFD
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/10-things-you-need-to-know-before-the-opening-bell-535852.html?tickers=WMP,ORCL,TM,SAP,SPY
ReplyDeletethe bonus item was last and best..
Show us how you really feel, K...
ReplyDelete@ anon 11:44
ReplyDeleteLets see you put that blind shit to work, and post some results...
I doubt you will be very successful, but you'll probably hit enough to breakeven if the market stays in an uptrend.
We are speechless.
ReplyDeleteWell, I'll just have to console myself that I don't have pay 20 commissions a day, and be taxed on my winnings
ReplyDeleteCoulda just bought UPRO when Bernanke announced qe2.
ReplyDeleteYou'd more than doubled your money by now & avoided all the hassle.
Why is CVX immune to oil's downdraft?
ReplyDeleteYou gotta rock the futures, dog...
ReplyDeleteBTW, my commissions are pretty cheap, trading 1 mini at a time. About $2 round trip, and at an avg of 10 trades a day, the dread can afford it, seen?
One of the advantages of working for a firm, and not sloshing etf's around on an etrade platty.
Definitely don't want to be trading with the babies. Schwabby would probably give 150 freebies, but one like yourself might burn through those fast.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/41274602
ReplyDelete"New budget estimates released Wednesday predict the government's deficit will hit almost $1.5 trillion this year, a new record.
The daunting numbers mean that the government will have to borrow 40 cents for every dollar it spends."
...How can it help but end well?
Lunch...
ReplyDeleteFed days... tick tock. I never trade 'em.
ReplyDeleteMr Market will still be here tomorrow.
TARP Report: Homeowner-Aid Efforts Are Falling Short
ReplyDeleteany attempt to keep folks in their homes is a complete waste of time and resources-
the government slopping shit up as usual- and this-
An additional 2,200 have received federal assistance to hand over the deed to their properties or complete short sales under a program where homeowners get permission from their banks to sell their homes for less than the outstanding mortgage debt.
federal assistance? People can do this on their own . . .talk about mamby pamby land
Auctions ahead of 5y today and 7y tomorrow. The market usually turns after the Thursday auction. We can probably sit around today.
ReplyDeleteIt's not like the Wizard will say: I AM NEVER PRINTING ANOTHER DOLLAR AS LONG AS I LIVE....
So, it's a DGDF day, right?
Bruce, I wish you would put that Lab foto/avatar on your blog..
ReplyDelete"Gov't official says future bailouts not necessary"
ReplyDeletewhy would there be need for future bailouts when there is the equivalent of perpetual bailout ongoing (as policy)-
QE will continue as long as the Fed can do it without "pain"- that the stock market likes it- even better-
gotta roll . . .all be good
I love this outfit.. I should subscribe:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/26/djia-components-since-last-time-djia-was-at-12k.html
I have a feeling the only strong trend for the next few hours will be the upward trend of karen's profile views.
ReplyDelete@Jennifer,
ReplyDeletere: Dow theory non-confirmation?
Not a great way to interpret Dow Theory there, lots of times what you see happen is people that sort of do halfway dow theory think that every non-confirmation is bearish. it isn't, it's just a non-confirmation. If you take a hard look at dow theory signals during the 1940-1949 period and follow the top analysts doing dow theory from that time you'll see how that crushed people, if trying to trade with DOW theory on that short a time period as those charts (which the theory is really not useful for, it's better for longer term or Primary Trend trading) the best thing you could do during non-confirmation is sit in cash or hold longs in a larger up trend but perhaps tighten stops. following the theory you wouldn't short because there has been no dow theory sell signal given.
As I was saying... weez @ resistance, 1296, and if, for some reason, we get to 1305, we're going to 1314... that's what the "18" cards are saying.
ReplyDeletegonna start a subscription, it'll be $18 for 18 months, or weeks, not sure...
Back from lunch...ok, Karen, I will do it. give me a few..
ReplyDeleteBen, JW is being a JA here as usual; but can you just explain the chart to me?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/when-you-look-at-this-chart-you-can-see-why-everyones-panicking-about-the-debt-2011-1
DougKass: THE STRENGTH IN TODAYS HOUSING REPORT WAS TOTALLY MISREPORTED - ARTIFICALLY SKEWED BY EXPIRATION OF CALIFORNIA HOME TAX CREDIT
ReplyDeleteThe truth from TraderMark.. (and it goes along with Ahab's Maclean article:
ReplyDelete"I am chuckling as the financial infotainment TeeVee crew is clucking that this massive deficit will have the market worried. Are you kidding? As I've written countless times, the equity market loves bigger and bigger deficits because it takes from the future to give to today. The market does not worry about implications years (or even quarters) in the future. Long term is next week. "
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/01/cbo-tax-cut-deal-to-push-2011-federal.html
I can't tell if this market wants to explode higher or fall off a cliff.
ReplyDeleteLaidi thinks gold/silver could lose another 5-7%
ReplyDeletehttp://ashraflaidi.com/forex-forum/thread/?n=318&t=a
i would not argue that gold will see 1255-60 at a minimum.
Fully out of munis and into the long bond. Couldnt hold out any longer.
ReplyDeleteWe are about to explode higher after Karen's icon change.
ReplyDelete"Fully out of munis and into the long bond. Couldnt hold out any longer."
ReplyDeleteNice work! A profitable round trip indeed... who knows where munis are headed from here? One day we will buy and hold.
We are still short gold and may add a large widowmaker.
shoot.. forgot to read this.. i have the hard copy:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.economist.com/node/17956749?story_id=17956749&fsrc=scn/tw/te/rss/pe
K.,
ReplyDeleteWe are getting 6-8 inches tonight. How about you?
What happens if the FOMC publishes just one picture- the bernak with a mohawk, minus the beard?
ReplyDeleteK
ReplyDeleteDo you get the economist delivered to your house? I stopped, it would show up a week late, after I saw it on news stands here.
When I stopped delivery, they stopped shipping it to the stores. I asked at the bookstore and all they had to say was that "it comes from pretty far away..."
Then I see it in the supermarket checkout lines, on time, for about 2 weeks.
Very bad/spotty distribution. Just wondering if it has changed.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteOk...caught up...I added the picture of Jesse fishing to my others...
..slow day today...more new ice and snow and the mine is going to probably close early..
I'm getting mine this afternoon; no reason to wait till night.
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteJoe W. again?
that's a long discussion about what's happening there
here's the funny thing though, just look at the chart, Joe W is doing what,...... saying that there is no reason to worry about the debt? lol.....by that same standard you could have said the same thing at the peak of the real estate bubble by historical comparison in that chart
so rather than having a 5 day econ discussion, just realize what he did there was of 0 value.
karen!
ReplyDeleteyellow card! yellow card! yellow card!
You are going to cause Leftback to burst a gasket! Think of his health!
When did this blog go NC-17?
ReplyDeleteRatings must be down...
bondscoop Mike Jackson
ReplyDeleteDecent 5 yr auction. Came through mkt by almost 2 bps, a rare event for 5 yr lately. Dealers & ind. 45%, no worries for PDs
ben, oh i totally agree.. just wanted to hear you re-iterate.. : )
ReplyDeletebob, you are in Canada? mine is delivered to my mailbox.. usually on Friday's but sometimes Saturday if late. i'm impressed with that..
thanks, Bruce, i will hop over there in a minute..
What? Trezhareez?
ReplyDeleteEeet ees a sooeeesidell infestment,
k
ReplyDeleteNot canada, but pretty close. Apparently off the beaten path enough that I can't get a magazine within a week.
It used to be delivered on time here, then it went bad, just wondering if it's worth it to try delivery again.
I like the charts/numbers in back, they serve me very well when trying to locate past macro data.
@bob You could get one of those shiny new ipads and have it delivered electronically? Or get one of the less shiny kindles and do the same?
ReplyDeleteTHIS says it all:
ReplyDeleteSPY is up 194% since it began trading. As shown below, the compounded return of buying at the close and selling at the open has done much better than that at +378% over the same time period. On the other hand, if you bought at the open and sold at the close every day since SPY started trading, you would be down 38.6%! This raises the question -- why even trade when the market is open?
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/26/who-needs-the-trading-day.html
Colin, I could do that, but then one day apple/amazon or the economist decide to change their "terms" and I loose all of my past issues.
ReplyDeleteI use it as a security blanket, hard copy can't be DRM'd away in the night.
$bkx looks as tho it will be sub 52 by today's close.
ReplyDeleteLefty,
ReplyDeleteThis is for you:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/01/26/man-seeks-protection-sex-crazed-wife-germany/?test=latestnews
Man Seeks Protection From Sex-Crazed Wife in Germany
"A Turkish man living in Germany with his wife of 18 years went to police for protection from her insatiable appetite for sex, Bild newspaper reported Wednesday.
The man went to police in the southwestern German city of Waiblingen on Tuesday.
He told police he slept on a sofa for the past four years in a futile attempt to escape the voracious embraces of his wife.
German police said the exhausted man -- who fathered two children with his wife -- decided to get a divorce and move out of the home."
...Yes, Leftback my man, some men just must be irresistible..
$bkx
ReplyDeleteI wonder if FOMC is going to try to front run the FCIC report tomorrow, supposedly they came up with evidence for actually putting some people in jail.
Now we know what is in Turkish Delight.
ReplyDeleteTrump, i have difficulty comprehending him at times:
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbreaker.com/2011/01/obamas-state-of-the-union-china-mentions-lack-of-appreciation-for-a-magnificent-ballroom-enraged-donald-trump/
Mr Market getting a good ramping into FOMC.
ReplyDeleteDid you start already, Karen - or will you wait for the close?
Just to stir up some drama, Ashraf Laidi -
ReplyDeleteFED CHATTER: word has it that we may see at LEAST ONE dissenter at today's FOMC decision. Fisher and/ or plosser.
And if we do get 2 DISSENTS, then market is going down & $USDX should wake up a bit. Im hearing from 1 source which knows its Fed stuff $$
Another good day to de-risk out of HYG and JNK, we think.
ReplyDeleteThere is something behind the curtain, we will see it tomorrow.
After the Wizard, of course.
if we do get 2 DISSENTS, then market is going down & $USDX should wake up a bit.
ReplyDeletewe know there are two dissents already pretty much whether they announce it or not. But I think selling PMs might be the trade.
"I wouldn't trust the Fed to tell me what the weather is doing in the next 10 minutes even if they were looking out the window," said Michael Pento, a Fed critic and senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital in New York. "Their predictive powers are set by agendas, they're set by certain proclivities. Clearly, they're woefully inadequate in terms of predicting GDP, inflation and anything else economically."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/41274795
let this be a contrary indicator.. please..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/richard-russell-get-out-of-dollar-assets-2011-1
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-26/crisis-panel-report-pins-blame-on-wall-street-washington.html
ReplyDeleteRussell is a lousy timer. He is about as good as Rosie.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-26/china-lifts-minimum-down-payment-for-second-homes-to-60-as-prices-climb.html
ReplyDeleteChina Lifts Minimum Down Payment For Second Homes to 60% as Prices Climb
"China increased the minimum down payment for second-home purchases and asked local governments to boost land supply, seeking to further limit the risk of asset bubbles forming in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
“China will continue to effectively curb investment and speculative purchases of houses to consolidate and expand on previous measures,” the State Council said in a statement on its website yesterday. The minimum down payment for second house purchases rises to 60 percent from 50 percent, it said.
Premier Wen Jiabao said on Jan. 18 that the government will “resolutely” implement controls on the real-estate market in the first quarter, including curbing speculation and increasing supplies of affordable housing. Property prices rose for a 19th month in December, even after the government suspended mortgages for third-home purchases and restricted loans to developers."
BOO !!!
ReplyDeleteSo trippy watching the vol on the futes dry up ahead of these things...
ReplyDeleteThe first 15 minutes is a head fake....
ReplyDeleteRuh roh...late release?
ReplyDeleteIf that don't work, we might find an even uglier way to stop housing speculation...
ReplyDeleteWe will continue to screw over savers and renters.
ReplyDeleteBergenCapital Mike Bergen
ReplyDeleteFed to keep the money easy, wet, and free.
Fed says will continue to roll asset purchase program as long as Russell 2k under 1000
Much ado about nothing.
ReplyDeleteNext catalyst, please. Initial claims tomorrow. Yawn.
I fell like I need a shower after reading the FOMC statement.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.independent.ie/national-news/eu-oversteps-bounds-to-seek-pay-cuts-2509054.html
ReplyDelete"A UNION chief yesterday criticised the European Commission for taking advantage of its position as the country's new paymaster to reduce wages for the nation's poorest workers.
European Trade Union Confederation General Secretary John Monks met with EU economics chief Olli Rehn yesterday to express his concerns at the handling of the EU-IMF bailout in Ireland."
..You sleep with the devil, you may get stuck with the pitchfork a time or two...
Fed to keep the money easy, wet, and free.
ReplyDeleteIs that policy going to generalize into other areas of activity?
:-)
No f'in dissenters
ReplyDeleteOur guess is that claims and durables will probably be bullish for equities tomorrow, and bearish bonds.
ReplyDeleteThen things will switch around at noon before the 7y auction and what may be a sell the news reaction to GDP on Friday. We have seen this pattern often.
GLD has a perfect rev h&s on the ten min.. something tells me it will fail..
ReplyDeleteGS went red..
ReplyDeleteGLD has been known to sell off heavily on FOMC days, Karen.
ReplyDeletebac rolling over..
ReplyDeleteMy divvys have barely budged all day, they are not included in the HFT robomarket.
ReplyDeleteWe plan to nibble on TLT again at the close, and/or tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteCurrencies haven't budged, yet.
ReplyDeleteIt is as if the markets are frozen in time.
Jim Cramer on CNBC currently
ReplyDelete"we are in such a bull market it's staggering, its staggering"
"if you want to short something, don't short stocks, short bonds, that's the other side of the trade"
"its a powerful bull market, it's like 82-84, it's like 94-96, it has all the characteristics of those but broader, I feel like I'm all alone in the wilderness here"
Ben, you have got to be kidding me.
ReplyDeleteJim Moses Cramer....has a nice ring to it..
ReplyDeletejust discovered point.com
ReplyDeletea pain to set up but looks promising..
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI wrote those quotes in real time, they are word for word.
I just figured I'd share, I missed some other good stuff from him. Just remember, buy the dip ok?
Ben -- thanks for the Dow theory explanation.
ReplyDeleteNicTrades Nicola
ReplyDelete%AUDUSD trade video I did today (for a competition) http://bit.ly/eB8Ani $AUDUSD
Hate to use technical terms like this....
ReplyDeletebut, RBOB gasoline is in "ass ripper mode" today....
Whoa....
thanks for the Nic video, that was great.
ReplyDeleteAndy, i cannot see it.. can you be more specific with an up or down ??
ReplyDeleteI know! I loved her voice, too : )
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteThis paints the picture well enough:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:UGA
"we are in such a bull market it's staggering, its staggering"
ReplyDeleteHe was hiding under the table playing with plastic bears at 666.
You know, the Leftback Bottom™.
AT - ass ripper, asshole long, dick for the tick.
Klassix.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013604576104490177188326.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
ReplyDeleteBondholders Left in the Dark
Concern Grows Over Lack of Financial Disclosure by State, Local Governments
"Amid governments' financial woes, meanwhile, angry investors are finding themselves blindsided by bad news. Those concerns are reflected in a forthcoming study that shows that public issuers routinely file information about their financial health well beyond the date they promise to bondholders, if at all."
...slow in the mine today...
I know! I loved her voice, too : )
ReplyDeleteBritish accents are kind of sexy. Don't you think?
Thank you, Colin.. i did not have that ticker.. dumb of me.
ReplyDeleteUGA over the last ten days on the 30 min, paints a different picture..
ReplyDeletethis is convertbond that i follow on twitter:
ReplyDeletehttp://video.ft.com/v/761060381001/Ex-Lehman-VP-Volcker-won-t-stop-crisis
Mad Money On CNBC Cramer: The Smart Money Is in Industrials
ReplyDeletehttp://cnbc.com/id/41274504
Industrials insiders are dumping at record rates....
ReplyDelete30y deliciously close to 4.60% once again.
ReplyDelete2s30s closing on record wides.
And they were buyin em up in fall 2007...
ReplyDeleteand the financials were lagging as they are again.. but no worries.. "that" won't happen again.. so soon..
ReplyDeletedust is tempting.. ufb..
ReplyDeleteRolled another 2% from JNK to TLT.
ReplyDeleteDUST does seem to behave as it is supposed to.
Maybe wait until lunch tomorrow to go full widow-maker.
GDX could go to 57 or 58 before this move completes?
ReplyDeleteDeMark on now
ReplyDeleteS&P 500
ReplyDelete1298.21
+7.03 +0.54%
Dow Indu
12002.20
+25.01 +0.21%
Nasdaq
2743.15
+23.90 +0.88%
Crude Oil
87.47
+1.28 +1.49%
Gold
1341.90
+7.55 +0.57%
CRB Index
332.83
+5.26 +1.46%
US Dollar
77.861
-0.141 -0.18%
I-Bro,
you liking the Futes action, yes?
i think gdx is done.. just shot it's wad, so to speak..
ReplyDeleteNot so much in the YM... fuckin triangles.
ReplyDeleteIf we aint trendin, I-Man aint spendin.
ReplyDeleteSo...how come it seems that pundits only get credit for rallies, like the Tepper rally? I'd be all for the DeMark correction, especially if it started RIGHT NOW.
ReplyDeleteNYMEX:RB RBOB GASOLINE Mar 2.2100 2.2100 2.2100 2.4566 +0.0860 +3.63% set 14:32 all months
ReplyDeleteNYMEX:RB RBOB GASOLINE Mar 2.3745 2.4633 2.3741 2.4582 +0.0876 +3.69% 15:25 all months
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/#energy
I-man -- do you hold anything overnight? Or close out EOD?
ReplyDeleteNo overnights.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Karen holds anything overnight?
ReplyDeleteWe are thinking noon tomorrow is going to be the TURN.
It's tempting to take something short home but we will pass.
If I had Ben's sleeping habits, I would trade the DAX also, but I like to sleep.
ReplyDeleteNo overnights.
ReplyDeleteNo tears and no hearts breaking, no remorse....
90.00 TLT110219P00090000 1.01 0.36 0.97 1.00 525 3,257
ReplyDelete91.00 TLT110219P00091000 1.47 0.51 1.42 1.46 702 7,254
92.00 TLT110219P00092000 2.04 0.64 1.99 2.03 1,624 2,027
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT+Options
from Plump to Ripe..
the 90p, esp..
30y at 4.60% right here right now.
ReplyDeleteTLT calls here and tomorrow.
Marky?
AAIP
ReplyDeleteGreat minds.
I told you it was easier than waking up in the morning...
ReplyDelete..silly rabbits.
JBTFD.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UPRO+Interactive#chart2:symbol=upro;range=6m;indicator=ke_it+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
ReplyDelete$indu wedge on the ten min.. they always break up, fyi
ReplyDelete2s30s at 398 bps. That's an awful lot for a healthy economy.
ReplyDeleteOh wait....
We like a wide spread. Good for Squid.
ReplyDeleteTepper might have sold some DF today. Someone did.
ReplyDeleteWe have to finish above 12k, right?
ReplyDeleteOtherwise K has to take off the panties again.
10s30s out at 118 bps. Very wide.
ReplyDeleteKrugman?
ReplyDeleteKaren -- if you're still following FCX, closed in a perfectly shortable spot just under the 50. Opinion?
ReplyDeleteDow 11986.00?
ReplyDeleteYou know what that means.
Krugman?
ReplyDeleteLOL.
China, EMs, PMs, GDX, miners. All good candidates.
ReplyDeleteIt's all the same play.....
Jenn, FCX, GDX, GLC, USO.. all at identical chart points today on QE2 and DGD Forever.. (or a dead cat bounce?) still in trend down mode.. all depends on your state of mind, i guess.
ReplyDeleteIs the SPX shortable? made a new closing high today..
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=FCX
ReplyDeletethat's some hard-looking fugliness..
~~
TLT Calls
88.00 TLT110219C00088000 3.20 0.50 3.15 3.25 92 175
89.00 TLT110219C00089000 2.42 1.31 2.38 2.40 191 531
90.00 TLT110219C00090000 1.82 1.03 1.70 1.74 285 679
91.00 TLT110219C00091000 1.20 0.95 1.20 1.23 1,141 3,207
92.00 TLT110219C00092000 0.82 0.64 0.82 0.83 2,195 10,649
93.00 TLT110219C00093000 0.53 0.49 0.51 0.53 1,116 3,673
look a lot more 'expensive' than the Puts..
should be a +
oops.. i meant GLD above, not GLC.. but yes, as LB says, It is all the same trade.
ReplyDeleteThe 94 and 95 Mar calls will be cheap, and a bargain, no?
ReplyDeleteWe will not see TLT 88.
Bye, Karen, today was "iconic", we are breathless.
ReplyDeleteLaughing.. not sure what i can do for my next act, however.. a different color perhaps.. sequin heels..
ReplyDeleteThe Bond Report 1.26.11
ReplyDeleteFOMC day again, the day after SOTU. An uninterrupted stream of Benny bucks, together with POTUS fiscal stimulus drivel last night created a risk-on environment yet again, and HY outperformed IG as USTs were used to light bonfires in the streets. The recovery in munis continued. Mortgages were weak on a big YC steepener.
2s30s and 10s30s continued to be stretched as widely as.. well, very wide, almost unnaturally so, almost as if someone mysterious were trying to manipulate the yield curve. Perish the thought.
Outside, the snow continued to fall, and all was still....
Corpies: LQD -0.56%; AGG -0.33%; JNK 0.30%; HYG 0.21%
Govies: TLT -1.52%; IEI -0.24%; TIP -0.17%
Munis: IQI 0.59%; MUB 0.75%
Mortgages: MBB -0.24%
Hedgies: TBT 2.80%
Durables, claims in the morning and then at 1pm the 7y auction tomorrow, expect weakness in Ts beforehand and strength afterwards. China likes to do stuff on Fridays, so Thursday afternoons can be a time for Mr Market to anticipate Voldemort's macro machinations.
We sold another chunk of JNK and bought some TLT.
We are now 11% HYG/JNK, 10% AGG, 5% TIP, 6% TLT and 3% LQD (35%).
Equity longs 14%, no shorts overnight.
March TLT Calls
ReplyDelete91.00 TLT110319C00091000 1.75 0.95 1.72 1.77 178 478
92.00 TLT110319C00092000 1.35 0.74 1.31 1.35 186 7,473
93.00 TLT110319C00093000 1.02 0.74 0.96 1.01 234 2,084
94.00 TLT110319C00094000 0.71 0.54 0.72 0.75 98 3,069
95.00 TLT110319C00095000 0.53 0.47 0.52 0.56 317 1,590
96.00 TLT110319C00096000 0.54 0.24 0.38 0.42 22 3,394
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT&m=2011-03
Calendar Spreads look good..
what in the heck happened to your short eem and dust?
ReplyDeleteTYX at April 2010 levels.
ReplyDeleteLet me see, what happened after that?
what in the heck happened to your short eem and dust?
ReplyDeleteWe have been working light and tight.
In and out nimbly and quickly.
There are very few things we like to hold on to overnight....
speaking of 'Snow'..
ReplyDeletewe're, now, getting a lovely mix of freezing rain/frozen precipitation..
"Slippery" WOTD ..
Look at the 1y chart, Mark.
ReplyDeleteTLT went from sub 90 to over 95, and FAST!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=TLT:US
All we need is a FWASH CWASH.
Selling 88 TLT puts and buying 95 calls, we like it.
ReplyDelete