EEM (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 44.80
rev= 48.49; mid= 46.65
This move in EEM seems to have petered out. When the weakness returns in the US will EEM be able to pick up the slack? Or will they lead the way?
* Maybe Meredith Whitney was right: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=3&src=busln
Path Is Sought for States to Escape Debt Burdens
Policy makers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.
Read more...
* The end is near (stock market, BB's & TG's job, muni bond holders, etc)...
SPY (60 min - 10 weeks)
BAC WTE. Missed on the top and bottom line.
ReplyDeleteOpex squeeze is on. Market ignoring BAC results.
ReplyDeleteDT is not going to reveal anything today, 20minutes in, half of which were passing out hats and terrible towels and speculation on what the unemployment rate will be.....in 10 years, he hasn't said much.
ReplyDeleteI will note however, that he's "watching loan growth at banks", but what does credit extension matter in a credit based system
and as for the most valuable insight
"there's risk in the stock market"
Sort of anti climatic after the last one eh Bruce?
oh, my bad, 8:32 EST
ReplyDeletebuy every dip
there you go, all you need to know
oh that and it's because of the economy
cheers
LB's DF position should benefit from a nice DT pump today.
ReplyDeleteI love the denial that he offloaded his stock onto buyers after his pump. Classy.
ReplyDeleteWhat are bonds really saying?
ReplyDeleteLets see, economy is "way better" than it was in April 2010
Inflation is now self evident, right.....
So why hasn't the 10 year gone above where it was in April 2010?
maybe it's on it's way back o 4% and much higher, tepper said he "wished he was short bonds" though it wasn't clear if that was now or before,
but does the bond market trail the equity market....or is it the other way around
I believe there are two ways to view the bond market.
ReplyDelete1) Higher yields indicate a growing economy.
2) Higher yields indicate the bond market doesn't believe you can pay your debts and demand the higher yield to take on that risk.
I think #2 is the US currently.
morning.. yes, i have to talk to LB about his yield theory.. because if it had been HFs like he said.. it would have been a much sharper move and not this slow steady uptrend..
ReplyDeleteis the dow really gonna open up 75-100 pts?! JFC.
ReplyDeletemargins raised on gold and silver..
ReplyDeleteisrg is ufb.. let the profit taking begin, this is really too much.. Trader Dan has reviewed the Tepper vid.. haven't gotten to it yet.. i might have had too much saki last night.. or maybe it was the wine before and after ?
ReplyDeleteWhen did 2yr yields jump from 0.60 to 1.05?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG2:IND&n=y
ReplyDeleteVALUE: 0.625 USD
Ok. I was looking at the 2yr government bond not the yield on the 2yr t-bill. Whew. Thought I was going crazy there for a second.
ReplyDelete"The two main difference I had with him was (a) his take on the dollar and (b) that there is really no downside to the Fed's actions. If he is correct on the latter, then why does the Fed not just do a permanent Quantitative Easing program forever and we never have to worry about the stock market ever falling again. As for the former, if you look at the dollar versus the 2 other main currencies of the world (yen, euro) yes it has not fallen. But the reason for that has nothing to do with "no effects by Fed actions"; all 3 regions are in a race to the bottom, trying to devalue themselves to "buy" growth and increase exports. Instead, when you compare the dollar to countries who are fiscally sound (or gold) the story changes dramatically."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/01/video-david-tepper-still-bullish-but.html
seriously, what is left to buy at these valuations? oh yeah.. aapl..
ReplyDeletethe dollar is d*mn ugly right now.. i don't have enuf curse words for this opening.
ReplyDeleteeem not buying this rally..
ReplyDeleteI wonder if not getting to SPX 1300 during opex week is a sign of a castrated bull..
ReplyDeletebots trading.. look at the % ups in the indices.. all about the same.. i am so mad at myself for not taking my faz profits yesterday..
ReplyDeletevolume dropping on spy now.. i am dying over this.. really.. well, i have a shipper to sell.. limit not hit yet..
ReplyDeletecopper looks like its up but not when you put it in chart perspective..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/how-much-has-the-fed-distorted-the-stock-market/
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeletewe may see the high of the day at the open, no trading for me today
good luck
also, Tepper didn't seem to think valuations were a problem either ;-)
ben22
ReplyDeleteI don't know why but it looks as though your post was delayed. Blogger must be up to its old tricks.
the surreal reality of "ZIRP and QE" world . . .
ReplyDeleteand the Fed "put" that distorts all risk taking endeavors- because you know there is a nice comfortable crash pad to land on
what about when the fed supplied "unlimited credit" in the first quarter of 2009, no QE then, but we had ZIRP
ReplyDeletewhat of that? where was the crash pad?
and no, I'm not calling for a crash, but what I'm saying is, if correlation works only sometimes, how do you know when it will change?
no- I get you b22-
ReplyDeletebut . . .I do believe the "put" creates more dice rolling than may otherwise happen-
and concurrent ZIRP and QE are recent phenomena- people may putting more faith in it then it deserves
HYG and JNK showing no fear..
ReplyDeletei get a kick out of spy and dia volumes on the ten min chart..
ReplyDeleteeem is getting interesting.. but nothing is as riveting as the TBT-TLT story!
I can't believe I skipped a shower to watch Tepper. I had to go to preschool in my PJs.
ReplyDeletejennifer-
ReplyDeleteyou still in preschool:-)?
feels like it most days :-)
ReplyDeleteI think people are putting more "faith" (love that you used that word) into them than they deserve, a minority view to be sure.
ReplyDeleteas for it creating more dice rolling, well maybe it does ahab, maybe it doesn't, maybe they know better in Japan, maybe they don't
it would seem though, the amount of dice rolling is in many ways determined by what's happening on the other side of the market is it not? You can only keep rolling to the extent the other side allows you. And also, if authorities could stop declines, what's up with those silly Japanese? What idiots!
Oops on GOOG, giving up their earnings gains.
ReplyDeleteJennifer,
ReplyDeleteI got in late because of it (Tepper), total waste of time, was more exciting last time
did you notice Joe Kernan, he made a point to say they'd talk about the NJ Food Bank but he just couldn't wait to get his opinion on markets, forget these fools that can't eat
are stocks going higher! is there still "no risk"!!!!!!
Gold looks like it's forming a morning star pattern. Is it about time to BTD?
ReplyDeleteI noticed that Joe K was really interested in proving that his hair is real. The rest of the interview was about as interesting and informative.
ReplyDeleteAR -- I'll confess, I bought GDX at yesterday's close. The bounce is weak, but I screwed up with the COMEX rule changes. If China tightens over the weekend, then there is more downside. I linked to something within the last couple of days that suggested the 150 dma as a good buy point -- on GLD that is around 127 right now.
ReplyDeleteis there still "no risk"
ReplyDeletethat's funny
goog back to earth.. isrg not!
ReplyDeleteI have a soft spot in my heart for ISRG. It was my first really significantly profitable trade when I was starting to take this seriously. Of course, I sold around 118 so I guess that wasn't so good.
ReplyDeletegearing up for Obamacare Karen
ReplyDeletesee, it's fundamental's.
Plus, I think that the Da Vinci is really cool. If I ever needed any surgery that they use that for, I would go out of my way to go ot a hospital/doctor that use it. My husband has a heart defect, not terribly significant, but we were stunned when we first found out about it (our firstborn was about 3 weeks old -- and we hadn't bought life insurance yet -- so wonderful timing!) He has opted to leave it alone, and there is a way to possibly correct it without open heart surgery, but if he were ever to have open heart surgery, it would be with the Da Vinci. Avoiding having your chest cracked open is a big plus.
ReplyDeleteNote: heart condition does not prevent light saber wars with angry hordes of 6 year old neighbor kids.
ReplyDelete@J,
ReplyDeleteI made a good amount of money off ISRG before as well, hard for me to get interested up here.
did i miss the pomo?! darn.. it'll show up in the indices any minute, i'm sure..
ReplyDeleteJenniffer - I like preschool too, I miss going but they said I was too big now :(
ReplyDeleteBut I still get to color at home.
Mangy Mutt
hmm, this market needs some fresh money to come in.. maybe biderman has it figured out now..
ReplyDeleteperusing the trimtabs site.. this looks like a good story:
http://www.trimtabs.com/global/news_stories.htm
LOL, "the fed is rigging the market"
http://www.trimtabs.com/global/news_video.htm
Diana Olick
ReplyDelete2,000 commercial mortgages due to mature in next 12 mos. $22.5B (Fitch) More than 1/2 originated bet '05-'07, when re values highest
i would say that the Biderman interview above is a must watch..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.trimtabs.com/global/news_video.htm
you gotta here his take on gold..
ReplyDeletehe loves aapl, amzn, and crm
he has never seen a "rigged" market before.. "where everyone is selling and the market keeps going up.. it's a very scary situation..."
ReplyDeletethere's naz in the red
ReplyDeletefrom a wave perspective, if the move off the recent highs is not impulsive then a correction pattern is not complete either and some further downside is likely, so this mornings highs off yesterday's lows could have been it.
Neely is shortinig again today, that's a handy profit from his first short trade and now he's adding to it "short on weakness"
my Q's spread is holding up ok, still with the small dollar position, looking to buy more there on strength.
but who needs charts.....
b22-
ReplyDeletethis post-
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/how-much-has-the-fed-distorted-the-stock-market/-
is looking for your comment
Karen, it's sort of hard to get on the bandwagon of "everyone is selling" and he has no data that can help him understand people are selling stock to pay bills, he just pulled that out of his ass
ReplyDeleteeveryone is selling and the put/call ratio is at what, 7 year lows? Sentiment on nearly every survey is at what....5 year bullish highs? Also, weren't equity inflows just positive? and on, and on.
what's best, how many of you want your money manager to say, well I feel stupid doing this but everyone else is....so
any takers?
saving that video.
ahab,
ReplyDeletewhat am I going to say that I haven't already said before though? I'm just talking to myself dude and I want to hear my voice on Fed manipulation even less than everyone at TBP, I read that though, just to check it out.
nice little exercise in which there is no way to draw any conclusion's, just my opinion of course
And that's why I don't go to TBP anymore ...there is nothing new being said over there.
ReplyDeletewell Jennifer, when we're in a typical recovery thing's are just boring I guess
ReplyDeletegotta roll- all be good . . .
ReplyDeleteben.. that video is a saver for sure!! on so many levels.. said half his assets were in gold.. but it was a short term outlook using GLD!
ReplyDeletethat's my point about the price on gold right now.. too much margin, too many flakey newbies that'll dump as fast as my husband dumped his EM fund..
SPX 1 minute, nice little cup-n-handle action last hour or so...
ReplyDeleteagreed Karen, I think it's funny when people say gold is a bubble, as in physical gold, silly.
ReplyDeletebut paper gold, that's different, and so you wonder what impact that could have on the physical, lots of hedge funds in that GLD trade too.
Keeping an eye on RUT today, run a quick overlay of it with the DOW.....this is what tops often look like. AFIA was hinting at this the last several weeks from what I could tell, high beta gets pitched for the safe "blue chips"
just got my MS missive.. buy goog to $750..
ReplyDeleteyeah, and look, you can buy even more aapl today! it's going to $400 4 sure!
Ben - I am not sure if it is the recovery that is boring or TBP. Just kidding of course.
ReplyDeleteBut it does kind of seem like most people have picked sides. Typical recover vs. Jobless recover, Fed's Manipulate the market vs The Market only does what the Market wants.
Then you have someone like BR throw out a bomb like that, well hell there really is no right or wrong answer to it and like you said, there is no way to prove it one way or another.
So if I understand what Jenniffer is saying, it's not so much the market that is boring, it is the constant rhetoric that pits Those vs Them and that does get kind of boring - IMO
So now that the Seahawks are out..LOL... Who do you have peg to go the big game?
Mangy Mutt
ben, exactly.. on gold.. the physical in your basement is what you want.. i'm accumulating cash in the house to go to one of these myriad gold shops on every corner to buy when it feels right ; )
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteI use the list of dealers that were put in the CTC book, lucky for me one is in DE here a few miles from my office.
Also have the gold money account which was a pain to set up but easy to use after that, that's probably worth looking into if you want to buy a lot of gold and keep some of it out of the states.
Mutt,
yeah it is pretty boring the those vs. them isn't it. As for football, that NFC title game should be a great one I'd like to see the Pack go, I like Aaron Rodgers. AFC game should be good too, this might not be real popular around here but I'm tired of hearing about Rex Ryan so I'm all for the Steelers in that game. I wonder if Santonio Holmes can make a crazy grab to take down his old team. Should be some fun games to watch. I bought some salsa yesterday to prepare, passed on the catfood.
have you all seen the woman that fell into the fountain at the mall texting is now trying to sue?
ReplyDeleteGIB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the video with her attorney is priceless where she warns "especially the younger generation" that this could happen to them, any time, anywhere.
just when you think you've seen a lot of dumb stuff, another Cathy Cruz Marrero makes you realize there's more, much more.
ben.. you don't remember but i am the one that told you about goldmoney.com a long long time ago!
ReplyDeletething with me is i don't want any more "accounts"
now, a few more gold watches i can deal with..
you know how i like to kiss! laughing.
We have quietly moved mostly to the sideline in our muni experiment with a quick profit (holding a small position to keep my eye on the market). I think its time to wait and see on this one for a while...
ReplyDeletei want to see what TBT does at 39..
ReplyDeletecolin, can't remember if you were MUB or IQI
Nice trade Colin, get yourself a big frou frou to celebrate.
ReplyDeleteJust pausing by "the digs" amidst errands...
ReplyDeletenew chart in thread
(spy with some after hrs. candles)
---
Gotta go... I'll have a NFC-AFC Championship thread up tomorrow...
Later traders :-)
CV
Diana Olick
ReplyDeleteGrubb&Ellis:Shadow space-leased but empty cubes, floors-vacated during recession will accomm. 1/3 of all net new demand in '11&1/4 in '12
Karen,
ReplyDeleteOh, I remember you bringing it up back in the day. In fact, that was probably back when gold was sub 1k...
"everyone is selling"
ReplyDeleteCan we stop using phrases like "everyone is selling" and "more sellers than buyers?"
The last time I checked, you can't sell something without someone buying it. I have said this before--prices move because of the relative alacrity of sellers or buyers (i.e., who is more willing to make price concessions).
*(This is a pet peeve of mine, much like Hussman's pet peeve of market commentators talking about money "going into" or "going out of" secondary markets.)
Missing you, Chet! hilarious avatar! my new one will be up soon.. can't decide on a camera..
ReplyDeleteWent with a mix, but mostly picked up the garbage boys (IQI), and little of the Cali bonds, and a small slice of MUB. Holding on to some of the Calis and the MUB, but moved the IQI for some wait and see.
ReplyDeleteoh this is too much! On the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission’s main report, to be released Jan. 27 -
ReplyDelete"“It will make interesting reading, but I don’t know anybody in a policy position that is waiting for” the report, said Wayne Abernathy, a former Treasury Department official who is now an executive vice president at the American Bankers Association in Washington. “They broke with the effort to form a consensus pretty early, and from then on people started discounting their work.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-21/financial-crisis-panel-will-deliver-three-separate-conclusions.html
Matthew,
ReplyDeletewhere are you from? just curious.
and nice post
agree with you matthew, 100%.. i think it is more a question of semantics, however.. and some of us are more literal than others..
ReplyDeleteanyone want to take an unbiased stab at uso or dto?
ReplyDeletefunny headline:
ReplyDelete"Google Shares Look Cheap After Management Shake-Up"
not that the shares look cheap, but the reason why, a management shake-up makes them cheap!
the H&S in USO is way to obvious to play out.. and ben, what do you see from a wave perspective..?
ReplyDeleteBen - I am ambivalent about the Jet's/Steelers as I like them both about the same. The thing that concerns me is if the Jets win the SuperBowl, will there be a push to get more coaches with a "Ryan" like attitude?
ReplyDeleteThe Packers/Bears game should be a good one and if the Packers win Green Bay can formally wipe away the Favre era. That guy was a great QB, he just did not know when to quit though, so instead of people saying "What would have happened if he played a couple more years" it is now. "Why'd he play so long"
Regarless of who wins on Sunday, we should have one of the best SuperBowls since 2004...Oh yea that is the year the Seahawks went.
Mutt
well, headlines are my main peeve!
ReplyDeleteMutt,
ReplyDeletenew coach in Oakland said they will compete for the SB next year after winning the division so I'm prettay pumped because he wouldn't lie about that.
Diana Olick
ReplyDeleteFitch: Loan mods quicken for U.S. CMBS spec. svcers. $27.9B 3Q'10, more than last 4 yrs comb. as liquidity returning to CMBS mkt.
karen,
ReplyDeleteI've never really traded our counted oil, did that USO split or is it really just down from $117? it's basically flatlined since June 2009, what an ugly chart over that period.
volume footprint is dead since May 2010 but the basic trendline from Aug 24/10 still in tact depending on how you draw it.
prechter has a count for oil but it's nonsense, I'm pretty sure he's calling for $10-$12/bbl.
I really like AT's dollar charts right now, not a perfect 1 for 1 but if the dollar is about to put in an extended fifth wave I wouldn't want to be very long of the oil.
sorry none of that is so helpful
you all will love these charts!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/gdp-growth-vs-market-appreciation-post-recession
traded or counted....that should read
ReplyDeleteben, you are so funny! USO did not split and even if it had it would be adjusted for that on the chart.. look at $wtic.. yeah, it split, all right.. i am laughing hysterically right now.. remember crude? i went from $150 to $35, hahahaha.. split into splinters.. LOL
ReplyDeletecouldn't get to the charts, I just spit my green tea all over reading this:
ReplyDelete"the Fed can keep the spigots open indefinitely"
oh really.....
Karen, I know it didn't split! I'm just being a dick for all the inflationists.
ReplyDeletehehehe
some good info here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/russell-2000s-highest-beta-stocks
and you commented at TBP....did you read the comment disclaimer before you did?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/10980594/1/aig-warrant-terms-befuddle-some-investors.html
ReplyDeleteFYI Karen...
ReplyDelete18 numbers applied to SPY
key 18 supports for SPY
Crude Oil 89.31 -0.28 -0.31
ReplyDeleteNatural Gas 4.737 +0.045 +0.96
Corn 661.0 +7.0 +1.07
Soybeans 1418.00 +3.75 +0.26
30yr Bond 119.78125 +0.31250 +0.26
10yr Note 120.000000 +0.171875 +0.14
NY Gold 1342.3 -4.2 -0.31
NY Silver 27.445 -0.028 -0.10
Emini S&P 1281.75 +5.50 +0.43
Emini Nasdaq 2277.75 -3.75 -0.16
Emini Dow 11825 +51 +0.43
http://www.ino.com/
CME:DC CLASS III MILK Feb 15.40 16.03 15.40 15.98 +0.64 +4.17% 13:23 all months
NYBOT:CC COCOA Mar 3193 3250 3157 3180 +2 +0.06% 13:24 all months
NYBOT:KC COFFEE Mar 232.90 241.80 232.85 240.35 +8.55 +3.67% 13:24 all months
NYBOT:CT COTTON #2 Mar 153.90 156.94 153.72 156.94 +4.00 +2.62% 13:22 all months
CME:LB LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Mar 313.4 313.4 312.0 312.0 +8.6 +2.83% 11:42 all months
CME:LBS LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Mar 304.4 313.4 304.4 313.4 +10.0 +3.28% 12:40 all months
CME:DA MILK CLASS III Feb 15.90 15.90 15.90 15.90 +0.56 +3.65% 12:16 all months
NYBOT:OJ ORANGE JUICE-A Mar 176.80 176.95 172.60 173.50 -2.50 -1.41% 13:24 all months
NYBOT:SB SUGAR #11-WORLD Mar 31.39 32.35 31.11 32.31 +1.00 +3.18% 13:24 all months
NYBOT:SF SUGAR #16 May 39.00 39.00 39.00 39.00 +0.15 +0.39% 13:14 all months
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/#foodandfiber
AAIP
Ben! you keep making me laugh!! i know, i know.. the spigots..
ReplyDelete18! thanks for that! i like those charts that way..
ReplyDeleteread the last sentence carefully:
ReplyDeleteCrude for March delivery (CLH11), the benchmark contract, retreated 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $89.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The contract traded as low as $89.15 and as high as $90.22 during the session.
For the week, oil has lost about 2%.
Volumes were low Friday, with traders waiting for more clues on the state of the global economy.
this is gonna be a must read!
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbreaker.com/2011/01/greenlight-capital-has-a-question-for-ben-bernanke/greenlight-q4_2010-letter/
the BAC announcement was a beaut..
ReplyDeletethat dude, Mohnihan(sp?), looked like he was going to have kittens..
good thing he's not a "Professional Liar"--it'd be 'catfood' for him..
ibid.
Never mind my 1:54.. it wasn't a must read.. sorry. Leaving it up there in case you do want to read it..
ReplyDeleteResearcher Controls Worm by Stimulating Individual Neurons with Laser
ReplyDeleteJanuary 21st, 2011
Via: Github:
Andrew’s research is called CoLBeRT: Controlling Locomotion and Behavior in Real-Time and works by running real-time analysis on video of a 1mm long specially bred light-sensitive C. elegans worm. The CoLBeRT system tracks the worm as it moves and shines laser light on specific neurons as the worm is moving to stimulate or inhibit those neurons.
The system can make the worm paralyzed, lay eggs, back up, speed up or sense touch in different areas of its body, all by directing laser light into specific neurons. That’s right, I said lay eggs.
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20050
niice..
Do we need more worms?
ReplyDeleteAnybody catch that SHIBOR chart that was up a minute ago? 7.4 ... oops.
one of my BAC clients told me on tuesday that internally some people continue to discuss how Countrywide will be a "good deal" over the long haul.
ReplyDelete@18,
do you ever try to apply the number to other things, dollar, bonds, etc? I mean, your 18 calls have been pretty damn accurate for a lot of months now.
ben, internally, many had no clue what was coming down the pipeline at the banks, remember?
ReplyDeleteSmartphones: Radio Firmware Vulnerability Allows Attackers to Take Control of iPhone or Android Devices
ReplyDeleteJanuary 19th, 2011
Via: InfoWorld:
More than three years after the iPhone was first hacked, computer security experts think they’ve found a whole new way to break into mobile phones — one that could become a big headache for Apple, or for smartphone makers using Google’s Android software.
In a presentation set for next week’s Black Hat conference in Washington D.C., University of Luxembourg research associate Ralf-Philipp Weinmann says he plans to demonstrate his new technique on an iPhone and an Android device, showing how they could be converted into clandestine spying systems. “I will demo how to use the auto-answer feature present in most phones to turn the telephone into a remote listening device,” he said in an e-mail interview....
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20029
ibid.
I didn't even know that worms laid eggs. I find this very disturbing.
ReplyDeleteIMF approves $30 bln credit line for Poland http://goo.gl/Fl5n8
ReplyDeleteNot The Onion: NSA Turns to Smart Phones for Recruitment
ReplyDeleteJanuary 19th, 2011
Via: Defense Systems:
Having a smart phone may give you an advantage if you’re looking for a job with the National Security Agency. The agency on Jan. 13 announced the launch of two new smartphone applications that are part of NSA’s largest hiring effort in recent years.
The NSA Career Links Smartphone application—which is available for download through iTunes—delivers real-time NSA updates directly to the user’s iPhone. This includes information about available employment opportunities, career fairs, and agency news. Users can also view videos highlighting NSA employee experiences, according to an agency announcement.
NSA is also employing smart phone tagging on many of its print-based recruitment advertisements. That will allow smart-phone users to scan tags in the print ads, which will then show them a video connected to the ad.
Related: The CIA and NSA Want You to Be Their Friend on Facebook
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20027
Karen,
ReplyDeleteI remember better than most, which is why I don't buy into the manipulation meme and especially laugh when I hear that is STILL everywhere in these banks, people should read the big short
it wasn't some of the banks, it was basically all of them, blindsided and then some, and many of these guys had no idea what they were even trading though they had billions and billions of dollars at risk.
considering last year as in 2010 was a giant year for subprime issuance on things like subprime auto loan, despite the claims by people that banks dont' want that kind of risk, I'd put money on the fact that traders are owning paper and they have no clue what it is all over again. And why wouldn't they.... the incentives on Wall street not only didn't change, they've gotten even worse since the RE bubble, in a roundabout way the QE discussion is really nothing more than Fedspeak way to say, we'll privatize all the gains and socialize every loss.
back then the whole system was about to come down and nobody had a clue what to do, today the Fed has it all figured out?.....puhleese.
Utah City May Use Blimp as Anti-Crime Spy in the Sky
ReplyDeleteJanuary 19th, 2011
Via: Reuters:
A proposed unmanned floating airship surveillance system is being hailed by city officials in Ogden, Utah as one way to fight crime in its neighborhoods.
“We believe it will be a deterrent to crime when it is out and about and will help us solve crimes more quickly when they do occur,” Ogden City Mayor Matthew Godfrey told Reuters.
The airship entails military technology now available to local law enforcement, he said.
Research Credit: T
Posted in Police State, Surveillance, Technology | Top Of Page | Leave a Comment »
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20031
good to see that the AfPakIraq "War" is paying Dividends..
cryptogon is a good site, carries other types of articles, as well..
AAIP
"In short, we may soon discover that the home loans made in 2009 were far worse than is currently appreciated. And Bank of America was the second biggest lender in that market. The “lingering” mortgage mess may wind up lingering a lot longer than anyone thinks."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/41195932
"...the incentives on Wall street not only didn't change, they've gotten even worse since the RE bubble, in a roundabout way the QE discussion is really nothing more than Fedspeak way to say, we'll privatize all the gains and socialize every loss..."
ReplyDeleteyep, much, too much, like that..
ibid.
J
ReplyDeleteEven more disturbing- worms are hermaphrodites..
"In short, we may soon discover that the home loans made in 2009 were far worse than is currently appreciated."
ReplyDeleteDING !!!
ibid, 2:17
ReplyDeleteauthoritarianism at its finest
if you see something, say something, but if there's a blimp, you won't need to
the all seeing eye, not just for Lord of The Rings anymore.
this is an amazing story..
ReplyDelete"It's Been A Living Nightmare" - JPMorgan Admits To Illegally Overcharging Thousands of Troops on Mortgages, And Wrongful Military Foreclosures
http://dailybail.com/home/its-been-a-living-nightmare-jpmorgan-admits-to-illegally-ove.html
"...Brutal cold has invaded the upper-Midwest. A record low at International Falls is not an easy thing to break. No problem today (01/21/11), as temps have fallen into the minus 40s F (or C, if you prefer). The cold air pushes eastward and reinforces during the next several days over New England...."
ReplyDeleteBring in the Brass Monkey, when it gets like that..
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/21/extreme-cold-warnings-minnesota-record-lows-below-40f/
worms do lay eggs.. i read it on the internet : )
ReplyDeleteBrass monkeys are definitely on the way, chaps.
ReplyDeleteSingle digit midgets for temps this weekend.
TLT bounced nicely off that low this morning.
For those who watch these things.
Enjoyed the EEM analysis. Surely a correction coming.
A trip to the 50 DMA woodshed?
I see you are all discussing the optogenetics tools that are amusing large numbers of neuroscientists. You use a laser to open an ion channel and move the membrane potential one way or the other, exciting or inhibiting individual neurons. That's what the worm work was about.
ReplyDelete"...For countless decades, Americans have been responding through protests, lawsuits, and “voting the bums out.” Yet, year in and year out, federal power always grows. And it doesn’t matter which political part is in power, or what person occupies the white house either.
ReplyDeleteTHE RIGHTFUL REMEDY
In 1798, Thomas Jefferson wrote that “whensoever the general government assumes undelegated powers….a nullification of the act is the rightful remedy.” [emphasis added]
Notice that TJ didn’t advise us to use nullification as a remedy “once in a while.” And he certainly didn’t tell us that a nullification is the rightful remedy after “we vote some bums out” or “we sue the federal government in federal court” or after anything else for that matter. Jefferson was pretty straightforward and recommended that every single time the federal government exercises powers not delegated to it in the constitution (there’s about 30 powers and nothing more), that we’re to reject and nullify those acts on a state level as they happen.
HAPPENING NOW
Already, more than two dozen states have virtually stopped the 2005 Real ID act dead in its tracks. How? By refusing to implement it. Fifteen states – most recently Arizona – are using the principles of the 10th Amendment to actively defy federal laws (and a supreme court ruling, too!) on marijuana. Eight states have passed Firearms Freedom Acts in an attempt to reject some federal gun laws and regulations. And seven states have passed Health Care Freedom Acts to block health care mandates from being enforced...."
http://www.tenthamendmentcenter.com/2011/01/13/null-void-of-no-effect/
last one, off for some olde-fashioned Snow Shovelling..
AAIP
So a really smart educated person told me, anyway.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of Mr Jefferson he would NOT be happy to see Bill Daley in the WH, Jeff Immelt about to join OBANANA and presumably Saint Jamie waiting to take over from Tiny Tim at Treasury.
ReplyDeleteThe takeover is almost complete. Simon Johnson must be apoplectic. We certainly are.
Real Time91.28 0.48 (0.53%) 2:41PM EST
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TLT&ql=1
TLT is looking good..
off for some olde-fashioned Snow Shovelling..
ReplyDeleteMark, the WSJ had a guide on How to Shovel Your Driveway.
Too funny...
Seems like Monday is shaping up to be very interesting...zero hedge is reporting on 1) Bangladesh's 3rd crash, 2) head of MERS resigning, 3) SHIBOR spreads blowing out.
ReplyDeleteLets not forget...for all his words of wisdom, TJ did die bankrupt. Monticello is lovely though. One of my law school professors arranged for a private tour for me and an architect friend which was pretty cool, in a geeky sort of way.
ReplyDeleteWe are debating the following:
ReplyDeleteA short of EEM. Juicy.
Going directly at China, the weakest link. Tasty.
A full blooded Widowmaker, aimed at the gold miners.
Tepper gifted me a nice pop this morning.
I am stripped to a core position in DF now, which is 1%.
Would have a lot more but no divvy.
- one of my rules is don't sit for no yield.
Will retract a bit more HYG today, nice pop.
I want to go back to a core of 10-15% of my portfolio.
Had gone out as long as 22%, but that's too much risk.
SHIBOR screams China property and stock market crash.
ReplyDeleteAll the other EMs will go too on a dollar carry unwind.
Fun....
AAIP - The first thing I thought when reading that blip article was to shoot it down.
ReplyDeleteHeck it would be fun, a single shot .22 would reak some pretty serious havoc on it, I wonder how many times they would repair it, before they abondon it?
You know it is FAR better to use those resource to catch a crimal in the act then to use the resourse to stop the criminal before he acts.
Mutt
LB.. TBT hasn't broken down yet either.. today is a limbo day..
ReplyDeleteTJ did die bankrupt. Monticello is lovely though.
ReplyDeleteWell, Jennifer, I had a nice house and a lot of sex. You can't take it with you, i what I heard.
These bankers of yours are the most dastardly scoundrels. Takes me back to my battles with Hamilton....
K
ReplyDeleteI just don't think bonds are interesting here but I am concerned that risk is being underpriced almost everywhere just now.
Be cautious when CNBC shills are smiling, and greedy when they are hiding under the table...
Rather an interesting commentary on yet another way that the big companies screw small biz:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-21/deadbeat-companies-deserve-obama-wakeup-call-commentary-by-jonathan-alter.html
@Mutt, I had the exact same reaction -- shoot that thing down, and I don't even own a gun! ;-)
ReplyDeleteHonestly on the CNBC smiles. Has an intrepid analyst out there created a CNBC optimism index based on facial expression and what they say. There just has to be something there...
ReplyDeleteA funny tweet I just received:
ReplyDeleteI hope Trump runs...... into a haircut.
i am getting anxious about the melt up..
ReplyDeleteK
ReplyDeleteEver see the Letterman "game" Trump or monkey?
He has two haircuts, with the faces covered, you have to guess who is trump, who is the monkey.
Very difficult.
Has anyone read the latest Martin Armstrong write up yet? If so, thoughts?
ReplyDeleteWe fancy a massive swing with the widowmaker.
ReplyDeleteChina is really in trouble but we think that the PMs are going to go first, as any incremental tightening will hit those ZH margin buyers in a variety of places, like their ass and their wallet.
We will do a half now and see what Monday brings us. There might be a bit of JOHNNY action on Monday and then we can do some EEM on the short side as well.
Bob, no and i couldn't find it.. but here is Donald Trumps Top Ten Financial Tips on Letterman..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmMkZD4VcNQ&playnext=1&list=PLBF53DC4E29BFC34B&index=17
@ ben
ReplyDeleteI've dabbled with the 18 numbers in a few things. GOLD prices seem to work on the "18" numbers but not as good as on SPX. Also, hourly or minute charts seem to show the change in direction @ 18 levels (or fibs of 18 levels) better than daily charts.
Using 18 as years, it somewhat tracks the bull/bear markets...
2000-2018...bear
1982-2000...bull
1964-1982...bear
1946-1964...bull
1928-1946...bear
GOLD... let's see if it bounces off 1332 (18 X 74) like it did the 3rd week last November.
SPX... minute chart... look at the first seven trading days this year, pretty close to trading between 1260-1278,
SPX... last seven trading days were a little erractic but the high was 1296.06, then it dipped to 1271 (.618 of 1260-1278), now were consolidating near 1284.88 (.382 of 1278-1296)
So there may be something to this stuff...
hmmm, it's almost like a larger benner cycle
ReplyDeletedia volume trailing off.. there was a big burst at 1:10 which ramped the index up 20 pts.. that said, overall volume is higher today than average.
ReplyDeleteChina markets look sick, sounds like a good trade. They are going to tighten, it's already starting with all the off balance sheet loans coming back on the books, can't have a billion people in a riot over food inflation.
ReplyDeletedistribution?
ReplyDeleteseems as tho we are at the tip of yet another triangle.. break up or break down.. fip a coin : )
ReplyDeletequadruple top in 10 yr yields????
ReplyDeleteI doubt it....that is going to break one way or the other real soon
the euro is funny today.. turned its trend chart up..
ReplyDeletespeaking of UUP.. at low of day.. uso still down tho.. take note of that..
forget what you call that formation.. in $tnx.. oh yeah.. a flag.. and it's a bullish flag.. LOL.
ReplyDeleteFrom "trade what you see"
ReplyDeleteThey use different numbers for Harmonics in sp500, 5.4, 6.85, 8.7. Inflation? lol
Bond market- 20 ticks
Crude oil- 44 and 88
Dow- 35, 105, 70
Euro- 35, 70
Gold- 11, 17
Silver- 18, 36, 12
Wheat- 11, 17
Soybeans- 18, 36
Seems like 18 is pretty popular
Why trade a backstopped/rigged market at all, SPOOZ, when you can access something truly vulnerable?
ReplyDeleteChina is already breaking down to new lows. Attack the weakest member of the herd. That's how we hunt....
Slightly concerned that if a panic gets going in Asia, they will buy gold. Maybe short EEM or FXI is the most conservative and highest percentage play here. I can leave a small active widowmaker on.
but if yields do break higher.. maybe we duck the other way and buy TLT.. on the fake out..
ReplyDeletesomeone's starting to bid up puts...the ones I've got have mysteriously gone up in price even though the udnerlying hasn't really changed.
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeleteI suppose one could argue that the wave count on the 10 yr is impulsive, we are in wave 4, wave 5 UP still to come....not sure over here.
EWI counts the yield but I don't get that service from them anymore
done w/ Round One..
ReplyDeletestarting to get a little nippy & windy out there..
~~~
"...Over the next couple of months, refineries will conduct regular maintenance to prepare for the changeover to summer driving mixes. That could affect supplies, but gas prices should remain steady to a few cents more, according to oil analyst Tom Kloza of Oil Price Information Service.
By spring he expects the average price to rise to between $3.50 and $3.75 a gallon. Ritterbusch expects $3.20 to $3.25 a gallon by Memorial Day.
For every penny the price at the pump increases, it costs consumers overall an additional $4 million, according to Cameron Hanover analyst Peter Beutel. If the price goes up a dime a gallon, consumers pay $40 million more each day for that increase.
Crude oil prices fell again on Friday as traders speculated about whether China may impose more restrictions to control the growth of its economy, and looked for more signs that the U.S. economy is headed for better days.
Benchmark oil for March delivery fell 48 cents to settle at $89.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In other Nymex trading, heating oil rose 2.76 cents to settle at $2.6508 a gallon, and gasoline added 3.64 cents to settle at $2.4589 a gallon. Natural gas for March delivery gained 5.1 cents to settle at $4.743 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude rose $1.02 to settle at $97.60 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange..."
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=689758385772792
One last time into the breach in defense of TLT:
ReplyDeleteTNX and TYX are different beasts. Remember that 10s30s is very wide here by historical standards and 2s30s is extraterrestrial.
TYX will be controlled. They need 30y mtg at 5% or less, or the bankstas will be SOL. So TNX can get away to 4 or more, but TYX will be nailed to the range. If the economy slows, we get the flattener.
Gary Shilling can give you chapter and verse on this but you have me instead, a poor substitute but better looking with more hair.
I am so screwed if the long bond gets away.
ReplyDeleteMe too.
ReplyDeleteJ-
ReplyDeletePuts have been incredibly inexpensive..
AAIP
Not going to happen.
ReplyDelete19.79 1.36 (7.38%) 3:32PM EST
ReplyDeleteLast Trade: 19.87
Trade Time: 3:17PM EST
Change: 1.44 (7.82%)
Prev Close: 18.43
Open: 19.31
Bid: 19.87 x 30500
Ask: 19.88 x 24500
1y Target Est: 21.64
Day's Range: 19.25 - 19.97
52wk Range: 13.75 - 19.97
Volume: 185,181,033
Avg Vol (3m): 54,590,500
Market Cap: 211.73B
P/E (ttm): 21.69
EPS (ttm): 0.92
Div & Yield: 0.56 (3.10%)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GE&ql=1
should be interesting to see how much of this Ramp, GE can hold onto..
ibid.
China shorts.
ReplyDeleteGood fundies and a chart even Karen could love:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CZI:US
seeing the same thing Jennifer, there have been lots of massive bearish spreads put on over the last three weeks, most of them target Feb and March and it's not isolated to banks or anything like that, I'm seeing them lots of places
ReplyDeleteso there are folks out there with large sums of money starting to make some big bear bets
AT commented over at TBP that it felt like there were a lot of people that wanted to be short this pig....we shoudl find out pretty soon how many.
and wow, just looked at Baltic Dry, still going down
CRB Index
ReplyDelete333.99
+2.09 +0.58%
anyone betting the DOW closes at 11,888 ?
If China crashes, late arrivals in GE and multinationals may not be that happy....
ReplyDeleteSPX looks like it's almost at the top of wave 18 to me...
ReplyDelete:/
if China goes down hard CAT could be a nice short, haven't looked at that chart in a little while.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry going down b/c Chinese pig farmers ran out of places to store copper and unobtainium.
ReplyDeleteA massive China crash might reveal more fraud in their market than anyone can possibly believe. I bet some of these companies are HQ'd at a rickshaw stand in Chengdu. Lots of life savings about to be lost...
the Consolidation-Train is still on the Tracks..
ReplyDelete(AP:SOUTH MILWAUKEE, Wis.) Bucyrus (byoo-CY'-rus) International Inc. says its shareholders have approved a $7.6 billion buyout by Caterpillar Inc.
Bucyrus makes surface mining equipment used for coal, copper, iron ore, oil sands and other minerals. Caterpillar is the world's largest construction- and mining-equipment maker.
Caterpillar offered $92 per share, a 32 percent premium to Bucyrus' closing price on the November day that the companies announced the acquisition.
Bucyrus says about 73.8 percent of the total outstanding shares voted Thursday in favor of the deal.
The acquisition still requires approval by regulators. Bucyrus says it expects the deal to close later this year.
Shares of South Milwaukee, Wis.,-based Bucyrus nudged up 3 cents to $90.38 in afternoon trading Friday. Shares of Peoria, Ill.,-based Caterpillar dropped 72 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $92.89..."
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68975838577480
"18 said...
ReplyDeleteSPX looks like it's almost at the top of wave 18 to me..."
Andy?
have you calculated a wave 18 before?
Marc Faber touting "reverse decoupling", EMs down and DMs OK. But a lot of our market is leveraged to ONE TRADE via the dollar.
ReplyDeleteGenerally speaking, divvys are not dollar hedges, should be OK, but US and UK materials and miners are going to be hit hard by an EM crash.
It is coming.
time for Round-Two..~
ReplyDeleteibid.
@ben22:
ReplyDeleteI moved back to NW Ohio where I am currently "on the beach."
Too young (28) and not rich enough to retire, but too well off to seriously look for a job :D Maybe I should go back to school.
With the weather the way it is, I'm going to read through an entire library this winter.
Fishing this winter is terrible in Ohio and SW Michigan. I can count the number of perch caught on fingers and toes).
CZI looks good! especially on a weekly.. a much different chart than FXP.. and let's hope it trades better.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexlive.com/161296/all/its-the-least-wonderful-time-of-the-year
ReplyDeleteWhy I like Jamie...
ben22 said... 10:07
ReplyDeleteKaren,
we may see the high of the day at the open, no trading for me today
good luck
Update
I SHOULD have traded today, this move isn't over, even if it's a correction.
Be careful squad, the C wave might have started
thank god the Fed knows these elliott wave patterns.
SPX... 1282.25... (.236 fib of 1278-1296)
ReplyDeletejust saying...
@Matthew,
ReplyDeletenice, not too far from my home town. Lake not frozen over, no ice fishing?
back home it was a pretty bad year for the perch from what I heard but the walleye were good.
Karen, how many perch have you caught lately?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/01/mass-supreme-court-to-consider-whether-buyers-out-of-faulty-foreclosures-actually-own-property.html
ReplyDeleteAlso worth a read...
who knows if the SHIBOR blowing up leads to the big drop now but peeps gonna find out real quick Benny has not printed enough to provide liquidity
ReplyDeletenot even close when the debts are considered, not even a rounding error in fact.
oops, that last burst of dia volume didn't find much buying alacrity..
ReplyDeletei will be using that word everyday : )
The lakes I have been fishing have 8-10 inches of ice. They are fine. The fish are just being too cautious.
ReplyDeleteI can't speak to the ice on Erie, as I don't want to be the idiot on the news who needed rescue by hovercraft. I don't fish on that lake during the winter.
Hope you all noticed I don't even bother hedging rate risk any more with TBT, unless I am heading into a ADP/NFP event, PPI, or a long bond auction, and even the latter, I don't usually.
ReplyDeleteTLT forming a bottom. We have called all the major bond market turns for about two years, within a month or two, without fail...
last time I was on lake erie was on my way back over from Middlebass and a long night with a bottle of makers mark, real rough waters on the way over.....ugh, I can still taste it.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hedgeye.com/unlocked_ideas/11365
ReplyDeleteConclusion: We believe U.S. Treasury issuance over the coming three years could be ~34% higher than expectations. Increasing supply is bad for price.
Position: Short Treasuries via the etf SHY
indeed you have AFIA, most recently last fall, and I have noticed you stopped talking about hedging
ReplyDeletecrazy risk taker, ROR
that wound up easy enough..
ReplyDelete~~
a·lac·ri·ty (-lkr-t)
n.
1. Cheerful willingness; eagerness.
2. Speed or quickness; celerity.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[Latin alacrits, from alacer, lively.]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
a·lacri·tous (-ts) adj.
The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/alacrity
k-
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/celerity is the real sleeper..
ibid.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/ibid.
the full Latin, is, actually, even 'funnier'
(Literary & Literary Critical Terms) ibidem
[Latin: in the same place]
"Increasing supply is bad for price"
ReplyDeletelmfao
wrong
this statement holds no water in markets whatsoever, now I'll have to read the article for his "proof"
Dumped a little HYG, to cash.
ReplyDeleteErie is amazingly shallow in many places. You can walk out for miles from those smaller Canadian islands.
C called, just as I was trying to execute a trade.
Bastards, I got it off tho. Marketing call at 3.59 ???
CZI is too thin, illiquid. EDZ was the way to go for now.
13% short EMs, 4% short gold. We may add on Monday.
14% long single name us equities.
So this is a classic pairs strategy (long US, short EM) for now.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteWe like hedgeeye, and we agree on SHY. We hate SHY.
US govt has to issue more front end, b/c maturity is getting shorter.
DO NOT BUY SHY. You will be annihilated at some point.
There is no reward in short term Ts. Trade TLT all you want...
I knew some guys that walked across the lake erie to Canada one winter when it was frozen, took a couple PB&J's for the trip, they wanted to go to Canada to get some Blue eh.
ReplyDeleteI've gotten stuck out pretty far when some storms have come up, that lake is scary as hell when that happens
my super smart buddy now making old spice body wash for P&G sunk a small sailboat in the lake, never put his plugs in.....
you might call that a bearish engulfing on the weekly $rut chart..
ReplyDeletedefinitely on the $tran..
$indu about 1100 pts above its 50 ma on the weekly chart.. i think we can stick a fork in it on monday..