BAC (weekly info)new high 15.25
trend=up
high= 15.25
rev= 13.06; mid= 14.16
Not to promising having a bearish harami confirmation two days before earnings. Could it be a head fake? Will they reduce loan loss provisions? Will they come clean about defective MBS's? Will the MSM ever ask them the hard questions? Ignore the truth and BTFD?
Currency Comparison% change of currencies and gold from January 2007 to present. Most currencies seem to have flatlined while gold continues higher.
As the Superbowl approaches sometimes you realize "It's good to have a ring"…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-19/cities-may-default-on-borrowings-amid-financial-strains-u-s-mayors-say.html
ReplyDeleteDefaults by Cities Looming as U.S. Mayors Say Deficits Hinder Debt Payment
"The mayors of Los Angeles and Chicago said the financial strains still weighing on local governments in the wake of the recession may cause cities to default on their bonds."
...But I thought CNBC said the risks to the muni market were overblown?
...Let's ask Lefty! Assuming he wasn't out all night...
“There is no scenario where we would ever be in the ‘B’ situation,” he said, referring to municipal bankruptcy. “We don’t even use that word.”
ReplyDelete..DO NOT SAY THE B WORD! Not if you want to pay taxes in Los Angeles...say, isn't the sales tax in LA >10% now? With increases in state income taxes?
Cans we have a state and local VAT tax? Cans we? I promise I can live on that....maybe.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/01/nj_judge_declines_to_intervene.html
ReplyDeleteN.J. judge declines to intervene in Camden layoff of 167 police officers
...Similarly, the music has stopped, and Camden didn't have a chair...
From other thread:
ReplyDelete"you all shopping with gold bars now too? We can't even have a serious discussion on this. It all started with some ten year comparison of buying actual commodities or buying stocks and holding them, cause thats what you do with stocks apparently, but last I checked, you can't purchase stocks with "real money" anyway, I've never sent off any gold bars for deposit into a clients brokerage account to buy some BAC calls...
---
I'm going to call this out NOT just because I like the sound of my voice being argumentative, but, AS ALWAYS to try an bring a sense of physical reality into the discussion...
TRUE: You don't send in a couple of gold bars to buy BAC calls...
So what do you do?
You are transacting practically worthless IOU's (because if everyone holding these "IOU's" from the Fed went to their vaults to redeem them for something [what "used" to be gold, they'd find the vaults were empty) for the HOPE that you'll receive a larger stack of IOU's when you cash out...
In the process, if you don't outright lose your stack of IOU's, you'll pay the US Government a cut (called a "tax"), on your profit, so it can, ostensibly, pay the interest on the debt that it owes to the same banks who printed the IOU's out of thin air...
Let's say it all works out for you, and you end up with a slightly larger stack of IOU's to redeem... The process goes on and on, but also in the process you have to peel off some of those IOU's to EXCHANGE for goods & services...
(continued)
part2
ReplyDeleteBut it's like a toll road, because after time, and in a faltering economy, it becomes harder and harder to stay ahead of the pace where your "additional" IOU's net you the same basket of goods.
And YOU'RE the lucky one! The people in the system (who find that they no longer have any stacks of IOU's to exchange for things), need a handout. The government is going to respond by "socializing" everything, meaning it's going to rob you of your IOU's to provide food for these people that don't have them.
At that point you actually are getting closer to the moment where you might as well be carrying gold bars or whiskey bottles around because you have no choice on how to redeem your handout... It's no longer an (IOU - think paycheck), it's more like a meal coupon...
I know this sounds like a kindergarten class lesson, but the point is, in a GROWTH economy, these IOU's are arguably worth something (because they can procure a lot of goods & services)... When an economy keels over, these IOU's lose their luster (because the only way to keep the "velocity" of them circulating is to create a larger mountain of debt [which - in of itself - caused the economy to keel over in the first place])...
The only "beneficiaries" in this last instance are those who are tied to the counterfeitting operation (Bankers who can counterfeit more - and politicians who can "borrow" the counterfeitted money and appropriate it where they please...
All it mostly means (for the rest of the population), is that since there are a mountain of new counterfeit IOU's to go around to do service on the UNPAYABLE former debts, then the excess (which is trimmed off these transactions leads to higher prices for basic goods and services [as the producers of those goods and services try to keep pace])...
We mainly saw "inflation" in the 70's because WAGE INFLATION was part of the mix (because we were a unionized manufacturing economy to a large extent)...
They say you can't have an INFLATIONARY spiral without having wage inflation pressures... I'd tend to agree with that "in theory", but in PRACTICE, I think we're about to see how it happens in a SERVICE economy as well (because the service economy is NOT existing organically, only being transported along by a big money printing operation)...
We'll see if I'm right or wrong on this...
All I know, is that the verdict on the first DECADE (2000 - 2010) is in... We'll see where it goes from here...
In keeping with the lighter theme of drinking...anyone see the story on CNBC this morning about the new beer taps at sporting arenas than fill the cups from a hole in the bottom and then seal the hole? 56 beers poured per minute. Ahhh...progress.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/jan/20/ireland-emigration-australia
ReplyDeleteIrish emigration worse than 1980s
"The Economic and Social Research Institute predicts 100,000 Irish will be emigrating in the next two years – 50,000 this year and 50,000 in 2012"
...So this taxpayer indebtedness thingy...in a country of , I think, 4.5 million they will lose 1% of the population this year and 1% next year...
How hard are the Icelanders laughing now???
@mark,
ReplyDeleteI responded in the last thread, went to bed a little early last night.
jennifer-
ReplyDeletefunny you say that- I was listening to a sports radio show and caught a conversation along those lines-
wasn't quite sure what the hell they were talking about- now its more clear
"Will he go back to Ireland. "No, absolutely not. I don't think there is any future in Ireland. I miss my family and friends but I have go to look at the bigger picture.
ReplyDelete"What's the point of going back to be with family and friends when you are on the dole?"
Quite."
BinT-
ReplyDeleteappears they are all headed for Australia?
Ahab:
ReplyDeleteAppears so. Probably not going to the floods though... :-)
CV and b22-
ReplyDeletein a nutshell- since it appears I missed the original debate-
what is the argument? That you can't buy stock w/ gold bars?
c'mon man . . .
do not understand emigration that well- but don't you have to go to a country w/ a marketable skill- or have decent amount of cash?
ReplyDeleteI mean- can you just move to a country dead broke and look for a job (legally)?
ahab,
ReplyDeletethere is no argument, I was done with this a week ago, it got brought up again yesterday, one talks about credit and money supply the other about prices, so it can't be solved as it's two different conversations, so like I said, I was done with it a week ago.
A few of the stocks you yoots cover...
ReplyDeleteWho unleashed the "destroy gold longs" program?
ReplyDeletegotta roll- still sick as a dog- but weekly meeting to attend-
ReplyDeleteall be good
b22- from what I can tell you and CV are more in agreement than not . . .on most things-
later
ahab,
ReplyDeletewe are, but both of us like to get into the details of things, so here we are, we are just talking about different details is all.
Ra,
that was lefty maybe, think he said he added the widowmaker late yesterday?
OT: I found a picture of my double hosed beer bong and of me with some dude dressed up as a pirate after several frou frou's on a cruise holding a plastic sword to my throat
ReplyDeleteI don't think I'll put them up, probably not a good idea, I just want you all to know they exist.
It does appear to be a good day for Ye Myghttye Wyddowmakker*
ReplyDelete* A trade in which one shorts the yellow metal.
Good job news, market down. ROR.
ReplyDeleteWhen the boys wanna sell, you'd better let 'em...
Where's K?
ReplyDeleteProbably in bed with some 25 y-o surfer dude.....
morning.. what a day to be late to the table... gld at its 100 MA on a daily chart.. other than that.. not much support here. 126-128 maybe better.
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/01/18/study-points-to-windfall-for-goldman-partners/?ref=business
ReplyDeleteLong end POMO today. The weak part of the curve after the claims number is the 5-7y area.
ReplyDeleteWe tightened all our stops on our hedges. Don't want to lose all my trading profits to the BRIAN SACK or the GOLDMAN SACK.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0119/wage.html
ReplyDeleteNew minimum wage from 1 February
"The order sets the new rate at €7.65 per hour.
In a statement, Minister O'Keeffe said the move to reduce the rate by €1 would help improve competitiveness."
...drip, drip, drip.....
Widowmaker on a stronger dollar was an excellent call.
ReplyDeleteTo be sure, that cut in my pay won't be helping my competitiveness with the ladies...
ReplyDeleteExisting Home Sale up next. Thrills and spills.
ReplyDeleteSPX 1750
ReplyDeleteShut up, Abby, you daft old boot.
ReplyDeleteThe device is still collecting liquidity, Lloyd...
ReplyDeleteSean:
ReplyDeleteThank god you aren't Lefty. Lefty is in the La Brea tar pits of love....
IQI down again this morning, MUB too.
ReplyDeleteInteresting discussion on CNBC with the always acerbic Doug Dachille this morning. He thinks muni selling is overdone, but may not be over.
This is more or less our view.
EURJPY not playing along here...
ReplyDeleteKaren
ReplyDeleteHope you got all your loonies out...
Thanks for that heads up on LMT a while ago too, watched and waited, turned out well.
Covered IWM short. Thinking of adding to the widowmaker later.
ReplyDeleteWatching attractive levels of yield in Treasuries developing.
silver now below the 50 day for the first time in about 5 months, look at the underlying volume pattern in the charts since last summer
ReplyDeletemight be a buying opportunity, we'll see.
That's not usually the way the back side of the bubble plays out.
ReplyDeleteAny more dollar firming data and commodities are taking a bath.
Short the EMs and PMs is our trade du jour.
Bob, only turned in half the loonies that day.. its okay.. the exchange (buy-back price) has barely moved a penny.. i check it daily. might keep this other half now..
ReplyDelete"Sales of U.S. previously owned homes jumped more than forecast in December as buyers tried to lock in low mortgage rates before the economic recovery pushed borrowing up further."
ReplyDeleteROR.
He he he, this is what happens when your fixed income guys are pantsed by bad macro modeling and trounced by LB:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/morgan-stanley-employees-see-60-their-average-256627-comp-deferred
http://pointsandfigures.com/2011/01/20/oil-boom-are-speculators-driving-the-price/
ReplyDeleteThinking of buying the dip here...for a few minutes.
ReplyDeleteBig bounce in IQI. Interesting stuff.
ReplyDeleteGoing to sit this out as far as US equities are concerned for now.
anyone else see a h&s in uso ??
ReplyDeleteWatching spx 1275 and that 4.60% level on 30y.
ReplyDeleteThere has been buying of Ts whenever we have tickled 4.60%.
Made some coin, remember op ex tomorrow.
Staying in EM/PM short but tight stops.
Other stuff to do, will check in at the close.
support for gdx at 50-52.50 ? (sorry, its the JBTFD mentality coming thru)
ReplyDelete"I mean- can you just move to a country dead broke and look for a job (legally)?"
ReplyDeleteI met a guy in the Philippines who did that. He was dead broke in the United States and just decided to pick up and move to the Philippines with no marketable skills. He started out driving pop (or soda, depending on your provenance) bottles from a distributor to shops. He ended up owning his own distribution network.
TLT LOD 91.06
ReplyDelete- fairly strong support building around 91 last few weeks.
PS: "Dead-broke" were his words, not mine. It used to cost a pretty penny to fly there.
ReplyDelete"I mean- can you just move to a country dead broke and look for a job (legally)?"
ReplyDeleteWe did it in 1985. Arrived here with $100.
Typical penniless immigrant.
[Before B in T says it, now we have $101.]
i am really trying to close my eyes to the news.. i'm fascinated that the market is actually doing something right now.. MS issued their buy the dip on aapl on the first swoon.. what are they saying now? buy more on the dip?
ReplyDeleteLB, but you had a job waiting for you when you arrived.
ReplyDeleteCurrency land a giant mess. The stop monster is feeding...
ReplyDelete"what are they saying now?"
ReplyDeletedouble down, no double dip
triple down, QE3
:-)
bob.. i think the only clues to the market are in currencies, lol..
ReplyDeleteHere is one man's opinion: CreateCapital Scott Bleier
ReplyDelete$$ Dip-Buyers are being dips, until SPX 1250...
ben.. i'll forward the MS CRE outlook to you..
ReplyDeleteKey Themes & Highlights – The Recovery Continues in 2011
1. With a bottom formed in 2010, CRE is set to march forward in 2011.
2. Upgrading REITs to an Attractive industry view.
3.CRE is a diminishing headwind for the economy.
4.Credit performance of legacy CMBS is not improving, but a stronger foundation for the CMBS market is emerging.
5.For banks, we expect CRE losses to begin to decline in late 2011/ early 2012.
US rates-
ReplyDeleteIf Ben has anything to do with it, and I believe by most accounts he is the market right now, rates will move down into summer, gotta move timmy's house....
+ 1000, as they say at ZH.
ReplyDeleteGet your long bonds while they're hot.....
Getting interesting. Loving the EM short.
ReplyDeletePlenty of cash on hand if we get a big dump here. Some nice dividends out there for those with sharp eyes who aren't already "balls to the wall".
Right, Tepper?
Do I know you?
ReplyDeleteBrian....
ReplyDeleteIt's going down. I thought it didn't do that any more....
You didn't buy at the Top again, did you, eejit?
ReplyDeletecheck out bucky...
ReplyDeleteapparently DT is going to be on CNBC tomorrow and rumor has it that when is filing comes out in February it will reveal that after his little "it's easy" chat he dumped a lot of stock to the buy the dip crowd.
think this will probably be worth watching
Also, people following this:
Vallejo Offers Unsecured Creditors 5 - 20 Cent Recovery
http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/2659920/posts
good find ben!
ReplyDeletefrom ino.com- SEC requires reporting on loans tied to securities
ReplyDelete3 minutes ago
Federal regulators are requiring firms selling securities tied to mortgages, credit cards and student loans to publicly report information on the loans that back them. The Securities and Exchange Commission adopted the new rules Thursday requiring firms selling the securities to make a thorough review of the loans backing them and then to report the findings of the review to the public. The markets for securities backed by bundles of mortgages, auto and student loans, and credit cards have remained weak since the crisis largely because investors are unsure about the quality of the loans. The rules are required by the financial overhaul law enacted last summer. They will apply to offerings of asset-backed securities starting next Jan. 1.
Karen,
ReplyDeletewilmington trust, another fine bank that is really really good at risk mgmt like MS, they put out bullish notes on CRE as well.
Boeing cuts jobs as its C-17 program slowsFont size: A | A | A
ReplyDelete10:42 AM ET 1/20/11 |
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Boeing Co. said Thursday it would cut 1,100 jobs related to its C-17 cargo-airlift program through 2012 as it reduces production.
Vallejo Offers Unsecured Creditors 5 - 20 Cent Recovery
ReplyDeleteWhen you trust a Valley Ho a haircut is the least of your worries.
K
ReplyDeleteBit boring today, can we have an exciting new icon?
"Vallejo Offers Unsecured Creditors"
ReplyDeleteCorrect me here if I am wrong, Muni bond holders are SECURED CREDITORS.
Just wondering why they are leading with the unsecured creditors. I looked at the story as ZH and didn't see a price for secured creditors.
i thot you were leaving till the close.
ReplyDeletebac reports tomorrow.. how stellar will that one be on mark to fantasy?
ReplyDeletebob,
ReplyDeletestill trying to make sense of it all myself:
http://www.uscourts.gov/FederalCourts/Bankruptcy/BankruptcyBasics/Chapter9.aspx
In summary creditors are entitled to a settlement at least as good as they might receive in the absense of a Chapter 9 settlement, but the Municipality is not required to devote substantially all of its resources to the repayment of creditors. In the absence of a Chapter 9 settelement, creditors of a General Obligation bond are guaranteed complete repayment "eventually" but this could take decades or longer. Under Chapter 9 a settlement might be for less than complete repayment but can happen sooner since the Municipality can void most labor contracts (including municipal pension obligations) under Chapter 9 (without any protection for labor like under Chapter 11), resulting in additional tax revenues becoming available for creditors.
In short a general obligation creditor is more likely to make a substantial recovery under Chapter 9 than under Chapter 11, but there is no guarantee of a complete recovery.
If there is no money, there is no money.
ReplyDeleteUnless it is created by the BEN BERNANK.
"how stellar will that one be on mark to fantasy?"
ReplyDeleteWe don't have fantasies about BAC earnings.....
stocks down
ReplyDeleterates up
...did Hu leave with his money?
Larry Bothritz also playing defense, rare candor from The Great One.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/48-cash-reducing-positions/
...did Hu leave with his money?
ReplyDeleteNo, we did.
@ben22 (10:12)
ReplyDelete"silver now below the 50 day for the first time in about 5 months, look at the underlying volume pattern in the charts since last summer"
---
FWIW - I'm targeting around 24.20-24.30 for my next purchase of PHYSICAL silver...
(and I hope the hell it goes hog wild on a H&S and retraces the whole move back to $18)...
No more "stocks", options, or even short positions for CV... I'm just buying PHYSICAL on pullbacks...
why does he think we are in a bull market?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/bull-market-duration-and-strength/
probably the same reason he thinks we are in a typical recovery..
1935 looks like a good homolog if we do find a top here.
ReplyDeleteHe should include the Nikkei "bull markets" of the 90s.
karen,
ReplyDelete"Additionally, the 3rd year of a Presidency has lots of tailwinds in it for the markets."
you know it's funny how EVERYONE marks this as bullish. Cycles are not the dominant factor in markets anyone that's studied them finds this out real quick, they change. Consider that for a century the 8th year of a decade was the second strongest year on average, then the market has it's largest decline in decades in 2008. Ooops, so much for that bullet point.
When something like this gets real popular, as the 3rd year of the presidential blah blah clearly is right now, I get to discounting it
Ritzy thinks we are in a bull episode in a secular bear market.
ReplyDeleteHe thinks we eventually get a 20-25% drop then zig-zag sideways.
Whether we zigzag sideways or down is a function of QE(n).
RoW is not likely to be able to tolerate the inflation if n is large.
"Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous."
ReplyDelete..This is Ritholtz's lead-in to the comments section...
...I forsee him closing up blogshop soon. Someone sounds cranky and burned out.
ZIRP/QE means that all other "cycle dynamics" are moot.
ReplyDeleteIt is all about the liquidity pump - and nothing else matters.
look at aig.. 63 to 43 in 2 weeks..
ReplyDeleteSomeone sounds cranky and burned out.
ReplyDeleteTo avoid burn out you need low leverage and a sense of humor.
Or regular and increasingly erotic icon changes by K....
Crude Oil 89.41 -2.40 -2.62
ReplyDeleteNatural Gas 4.639 +0.063 +1.37
Corn 631.50 -9.75 -1.52
Soybeans 1393.0 -18.5 -1.31
30yr Bond 120.28125 -0.71875 -0.59
10yr Note 120.25000 -0.53125 -0.44
NY Gold 1347.9 -22.3 -1.63
NY Silver 27.630 -1.171 -4.07
Emini S&P 1269.50 -9.00 -0.70
Emini Nasdaq 2270.50 -24.00 -1.05
Emini Dow 11716 -70 -0.59
http://www.ino.com/
today, is one of first days, in a loong time, that this 'board' was as 'red' as it is today..
AAIP
http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/11/01/794677/how-bad-is-the-muni-market-mub
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-20/citigroup-defective-loan-rate-improves-to-f-commentary-by-jonathan-weil.html
ReplyDeleteEEM has fallen and it can't get up....
ReplyDeleteBruce,
ReplyDeleteI believe it was the great DSS that had in fact mentioned to Barry during one of his global warming/climate change posts that he should use that disclaimer for all his posts.
Karen, I put today's sunrise on the picture blog for you. Now that is erotic.
ReplyDelete...not like some who frequent this blog who feel great because they haven't drooled on himself in the last hour...
...Did I say "himself"...oops...I mean "themselves"...
...sorry, blokes...
..oops..
Here's a hint.
ReplyDeleteWhen munis get really bad and Direxion introduces bull and bear triple leveraged muni ETFs, just wade in and buy the munis and then short the triple bear ETF. That should be money.
Slow day at the salt mine, I see....
ReplyDeleteBen,
ReplyDeleteOne of the things I like about this here saloon is that we all seem to have some sense of humor....
It is our birthday, so we thought we might get a little treat from K.
ReplyDeleteyes, slow day. Face and forehead and eyes tomorrow...and then....Weekend!
ReplyDeleteBruce, you are hilarious today !! commented on your pics.. what a world you live in! hard to believe it is in the USA..
ReplyDeleteGoing to lunch...later taters.
ReplyDeleteLefty, get busy! Daylight is burning!
thanks, K.
is the correction over?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/20/small-caps-lead-the-way-lower.html
Yes it's over for now. Op Ex tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteLet's see where we are on Friday afternoon.
Monday might be interesting.
2s,5s and 7s next week, so the front end will be weak.
Next Friday is GDP.
What is on the earnings calendar for next week?
The retailers might be stinky on higher input costs.
no doubt bruce, I'm always laughing about comments made on here, some people here have a certain gift with words that sometimes has me rolling.
ReplyDeleteI just stick to beer humor, jackass sort of stuff.
Headline of the year-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexlive.com/160953/all/labour-loses-johnson-gains-balls
UFB.
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/video/us-15749625/fountain-lady-nobody-went-to-my-aid-23909987
Wonder if she was sexting...?
oh brother on that video.. there was hardly anyone in that mall.. and it all happened so fast. probably the video shouldn't have been leaked, but it is not as if it was sold without her permission.. have a sense of humour is my thot!
ReplyDeleteApparently too much sexting can make a girl very wet.
ReplyDelete(waits for yellow card..)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-20/u-s-home-sales-leading-indicators-index-show-expansion-gaining-momentum.html
ReplyDelete"Home sales numbers, leading indicators show recovery widening.."
Or is it Pinocchio's nose lengthening?
Wow. 3.46% on the 10yr and 4.61% on the 30yr.
ReplyDeletewhat in the heck?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.weforum.org/news/over-us-100-trillion-additional-credit-needed-support-global-growth?fo=1
4.62% on the 30y, and sub 91 on TLT.
ReplyDeleteIt's a buy.
@mark,
ReplyDeleteI gave my best detailed response below, now I'm going to pop some excedrin (bottom thread)
TLT is still trend down, birthday boy .. i would wait for sub 90 at any rate.. 86, even 84-85 is on the chart.
ReplyDeleteNo way 86. That would be a 5.5% yield and Tiny Tim's variable rate mortgage would be a crushing blow to the housing "markup".
ReplyDeleteNibbles here below 91 - balls to the wall at 89.
TBT can easily get to its last high of 40.56
ReplyDeletego ahead and segue in early if you want..
Agweed.
ReplyDeleteA cwushing bwow for Fannie and Fweddie too.
look at $tyx.. 48.58 is the number to watch, the previous high of 46.24 was taken out today..
ReplyDeleteben has really done it this time..
Don't know if anyone brought this up: http://tinyurl.com/4d84qjm
ReplyDeleteCreative Accounting Makes Fed Insolvency Impossible
To all who thought that the FASB gives leeway only to banks when fudging their numbers, and boosting their equity capital in ways previously unheard of, we have a surprise. The latest entrant in the "accounting gimmickry" club is none other than the Fed. And since the Fed is not auditable by anyone, it gives itself permission to change and bend the rules in any way it desires. Following on recent speculation that the Fed could in theory have a equity capital deficiency due to its massive asset book, and its tiny equity buffer, both discussed many times previously on Zero Hedge (here and here), the Fed recently announced as part of its January 6 H.4.1 release "an important accounting policy change with the release of its weekly H.4.1 report on January 6 that effectively prevents it from facing a negative capital position even in the event that it incurs substantial losses." Here is how Bank of America's Priya Misra explains this curious, and most certainly politically-motivated development: "The Fed remits most of its net earnings on a weekly basis. Prior to this accounting change, any unremitted earnings due to the Treasury would accrue in the "Other capital" account, but will now be shown in a separate liability line item called "Interest on Federal Reserve notes due to the Treasury.” As a result, any future losses the Fed may incur will now show up as a negative liability (negative interest due to Treasury) as opposed to a reduction in Fed capital, thereby making a negative capital situation technically impossible regardless of the size of the Fed’s balance sheet or how the FOMC chooses to tighten policy." And there you have it: instead of reducing the left side of the balance sheet upon the incurrence of losses, the Fed has decided to fudge the right side. And presto. No more possibility of insolvency ever again. Which only means that the Fed's now ridiculous DV01 of just under $2 billion will in no way prevent the world's biggest hedge fund from taking proactive steps to actually mitigate rate risk, and in fact will likely encourage it to gamble even more with taxpayer capital.
h/t zerohedge
"The latest entrant in the "accounting gimmickry" club is none other than the Fed"
ReplyDeletehow is this a "surprise"
the Fed's entire existince is one giant accounting trick.
that's right up there with everything being "unexpected"
4.8% would be a screaming buy. Fill your boots....
ReplyDelete400 bps is a record YC spread for 2s30s.
So if we reach 0.8% on 2s...
More likely steepness moderates, we might see 0.8 - 4.3% = 350?
You have to think of the whole curve dynamics.
For example, we don't just think of your firm rear end, but also the curvaceous front, as well as the flat belly and the tips, all of which are absolutely superb, we feel.
Talking Treasuries, obviously.
ben22
ReplyDeleteIt's just funny how the Fed is being more blatant in their obfuscation.
AFIA2BNL
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing 4.04 as the high on the 2s30s spread. Is that a major ruh roh?
http://technorati.com/business/finance/article/how-the-fed-kills-the-credit2/
ReplyDeleteChina has announced that banks there must bring all off balance sheet loans back on to the books this year, done to help fight inflation
ReplyDeleteRa,
what's funny to me is how the wizard has had to make QE2 more about equities now, seeing as how it's initial purpose, well, lets just say it's blown up in their face so far.
4.04 on the 2s30s spread
ReplyDeleteIT HAS NEVER EVER OCCURRED BEFORE.
Not until the rule of ZIRP in the land of the QEaze.
Only the mighty BEN BERNANK can erect such a ladder.
We can only think of one thing that gets as steep as this YC.
ReplyDeleteis this the op ex effect?! amazing..
ReplyDeleteWith respect, ben, the QE2 achieved its purpose, which was to push investors out along the risk curve. Out of Ts, and into junk and equities.
ReplyDeleteThis creates an attractive entry point for the skanks, I mean banks, to once again accumulate high yielding Ts with free money, just in time for the next scheduled slowdown in the recoveryless recovery.
Right out of the Japanese playbook.
THINK LIKE THE WEASEL....
ReplyDeleteMonster rally in IQI.
ReplyDeleteUp >2.0%. High volatility...
The 5s and 7s are looking a lot tastier here, too.
Imagine what happens if they let the housing market clear....
This would actually be one of the smartest moves possible.
"In the end, we all knew the markets had to sell off at some point. The Pit Bulls son pointed out that the S&P topped out on Jan 20th last year and then went into a 120 handle sell off. We are like everyone else, we all want to see a sell off, but we also don’t want it to get out of hand. We said we thought we were close a few weeks ago and then they rallied right in our faces. We also said several times that we did not doubt that the markets could continue higher, but they cant keep going straight up. We previously quoted the the Pit Bull saying the market tendency was to fade off during the 4QTR earnings reports – after 50% or so reported. Were we surprised by the sell off? Not at all. What would be surprising; is if they keep going straight down."
ReplyDeletehttp://mrtopstep.com/2011/01/20/global-insights-report-1-20-11/
the $indu may go green but volume in dia is now so low it may not be sustainable.
ReplyDeletelol, yeah, I beg to differ, QE2's primary purpose is far beyond trading activity, come on, it's to end deflationary effects in credit and to trigger lending, show me where that's happened.
ReplyDeleteso I'll stick with, it's blowing up in their face.
If credit expansion occurs the trading takes care of itself, it isn't the other way around.
ReplyDeletewhere's the volume? lol
ReplyDeletethis next 15 min may go the other way..
whomever is running these buy programs cannot buy every stock in the market.. so i suspect they are doomed to fail eventually. aapl for instance didn't budge and neither did aig on that last ramp.
ReplyDelete...it's to end deflationary effects in credit and to trigger lending
ReplyDeleteNo it's not. QE is PURELY to recapitalize the banks. That's all.
Nobody really wants a re-expansion of credit and risk.
They don't want the banks to lend, whatever they might say.
Don't read too much into the statements by politicians.
BLOWBAMA is only there for the banks and big corporates.
Don't lose sight of the fact that we are in BANANAMERICA.
The looting continues until someone burns down Wall Street.
Literally or legislatively.
lb.. iqi is a low volume issue.. today less than 60k shares traded.. so the 30 cent move is nothing cuz you can't buy enuf of it to have it amount to anything.. that is my opinion, anyway.
ReplyDeleteEEM still can't get off its ass.
ReplyDeleteThat is my favorite short, along with FXI and GDX.
IQI does reflect the activity of a very shut-down low quality segment of the muni market. This is a lot like MBS, circa 2007.
ReplyDeleteben22
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting how quickly the Fed flipped the script on QE2. The rates started rising the day QE2 began. The market b-slapped The Bernank on this move.
Ve are going to zee a fenominon off referse dekuppling:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-faber-global-food-inflation-and-his-stock-market-outlook
the proper way to recapitalize the GOOD banks would have been to raise rates to encourage people to put money in them.. and let the BAD banks fail insuring depositors only.
ReplyDeleteThe rates started rising the day QE2 began.
ReplyDeleteTrue - but you are COMPLETELY wrong about the reason. Mr Market wasn't slapping anyone. No no no. That was leveraged big money HFs selling the news having bid up Ts to ridiculous levels on the rumor of the QE2.
We are simply back to "normal" in the recoveryless recovery.
I like it when Marc posts. He is a smart guy.
ReplyDeleteAFIA2BNL
ReplyDeleteI see your point.
the move in DDS must have been a short squeeze.. +20% of float was short.. no way the reit news is worth 15% higher valuation..
ReplyDeletethe proper way to recapitalize the GOOD banks would have been to raise rates to encourage people to put money in them.. and let the BAD banks fail insuring depositors only.
ReplyDeleteAMEN, a SWEDISH approach, nationalize and/or reorganize the TBTF and allow new entrants with clean capital to start new banks.
FANNIE and FREDDIE + the FED = the effective bad bank until someone in DC grows balls and we have the putbacks.
okay, lb, if that is in fact the story.. we will see it play out soon in TLT, correct?
ReplyDeleteTempted to go ALL IN widowmaker and EM short.
ReplyDeleteI think the time for a Chinese rate hike is almost upon us. 10% growth and real food inflation probably twice that is not sustainable.
CSI at 4 month lows. Weakest market out there. ALWAYS SHORT THE WEAK. Do not short the strong.
TLT is bottoming, consolidating sideways, carving out support, etc.. The only possible way we go lower is if a real job recovery came along. That's about as likely as you are to make a profit buying stock in Irish banks.
ReplyDeleteYou don't believe in leprechauns do you?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEL1m7VJRmc
ReplyDeleteWatch out for the Leprechaun..
ROR !
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/01/20/about-a-i-g-s-stock-price/?smid=tw-nytimesdealbook
ReplyDeleteTLT hasn't quite gotten where it's going, i don't think.. but your story is plausible and i might buy it (the story, and TLT at a lower price than here.)
ReplyDeleteoops, another buy program is needed..
ReplyDeleteanon,
ReplyDeleteok, I'll simply disagree with you, for starters, our entire system since the Fed has been predicated on credit expansion, if the Fed can't get credit to expand again, we are, literally, effed. That has to be the end result of all of this activity. Yes, going swedish would have been nice, but we didn't so credit expansion it is, or was.
QE1 was much much more about repairing the banks I 100% agree with you on that because of what was done during QE1 and what paper was targeted. QE2 is not the same thing, at all, but I'd love a schooling on how it is.
When the Fed saw that creating massive excess reserves at banks did 0 for anyone, they went to literal monetization, that's QE2, unlike swapping new money for dollar IOU's, that's how it's different. You are correct, banks DON'T want to lend and very few people want credit we already saw that in QE1, which is why QE1 failed to do anything. The whole idea of monetization (QE2) is to multiply the new money being created, to make sure that it's spent right away, it's the only way it works.
As for the comments about not listening to politicians, um, I threw the whole blog into a tailspin a week ago saying everyone here was too focused on the Fed, this week it's claimed that I'm following the words of politicians, there's really no need for comments like this toward me, pretty hilarious in fact, as if I've ever indicated I followed or even gave a shit about the words coming out of the wizard or Obama's mouth, I'm watching the actions, not the statements.
"True - but you are COMPLETELY wrong about the reason. Mr Market wasn't slapping anyone. No no no. That was leveraged big money HFs selling the news having bid up Ts to ridiculous levels on the rumor of the QE2."
ReplyDeleteOk, raising my hand teach....confused again
so, hedge funds aren't part of "the market"
they didn't front run Bernanke, ie, bitch slap him?
explain further please....
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/01/picture-of-the-day-shanghai-in-1990-and-2010/69959/
ReplyDeleteNo offence intended but they are all talking shit.
ReplyDeleteWatch the actions and follow the money, indeed.
K, the point is this, our model says TLT 89-90, and buy buy buy.
The reason we are sliding in early is there is a chance we are wrong.
so, hedge funds aren't part of "the market"
ReplyDeletethey didn't front run Bernanke, ie, bitch slap him?
We are both correct !! HFs were in this case, but normally they do not participate in Ts very much - SWFs, PDs, pension funds etc..
I wish more of you subscribed to Faber and had read his long paper last year titled "the inescapable debt trap" so you can see how he's already hedged everything he's stating
ReplyDeletewhat he says on bloomie and then the detail in his letters are often different and they change constantly.
It's only $300 or $400 a year, if anyone is interested:
http://new.gloomboomdoom.com/portalgbd/homegbd.cfm
thank goodness we got that cleared up.. now let's just see how the story plays out.. what a page turner : )
ReplyDeleteok, 3:02, I get it, that sounded confusing as hell to me the first time I read it.
ReplyDeleteHu Jintao visits Washington: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MM8dbWZ8Xw&feature=player_embedded
ReplyDeleteROR
what's real funny is, while I see things different than maybe everyone else here, I love the TLT idea down there, ROR.
ReplyDeleteIf we see an 89 handle then it will be TLT calls, BITCHEZ.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow looks like OPEX chop.
Brown Monday, anyone - after a China hike?
When does Hu leave? I can't imagine them announcing a hike until he's back in China. Lots on the news here in the heartland about the new grain treaty, possible food shortages, etc. I hate it when I get the dip timing right and the vehicle wrong. It is so cold here today that I have a headache. Minus 5 tonight. Hu was lucky he didn't slip on the ice and break something.
ReplyDeleteMy father, aka put selling fiend, looks like he will be the proud purchaser of many major gold miners at about a 10% premium to today's price. Let's hope that bubble hasn't burst.
ReplyDeleteweekend reading: http://www.economist.com/node/17956749?story_id=17956749
ReplyDeleteeconomist book review: Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System.By Barry Eichengreen.
what is up with the all day CNBC Chesapeake love-fest? If I hear them say "drill down" one more time I'm gonna puke.
ReplyDeleteTreasuries Tumble as Jobless, Homes Reports Signal Faster Economic Growth
ReplyDeleteFaster economic growth, my bottom....!
yes, i really did just put pedi-cream (foot cream) on my sonicare and begin brushing my teeth with it.. i didn't heed my own advice the other day to put that similar looking tube back in its proper drawer.
ReplyDeletei know, i know, the spin is deplorable.. talk about wanting to throw-up!
ReplyDeletewhat did that taste like, never tried the foot cream myself
ReplyDeletesounds gross
My father tells a story (with glee) of the time his father accidentally brushed his teeth with an athelete's foot cream called Ting. Didn't notice it wasn't toothpaste. Asked my grandmother not to buy that new toothpaste again because it tasted so bad.
ReplyDeleteben, better than desitin.. i can tell you that much. i've made that mistake more than once : (
ReplyDeleteI'm a new subscriber to breakfasts with rosie (I'm indulging my addiction with the free services for now) -- didn't know there were snacks too!
ReplyDeletefaster economic growth.. thank China!
ReplyDeleteHu Jintao, China’s president, defended Beijing’s currency policy , telling a business audience in Washington that the Chinese economy had helped create 14m jobs around the world through its growing imports. .
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9d5159f4-24cb-11e0-a919-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1BbkiLQ8S
SMN finally broke out today (ultrashort basic materials.)
ReplyDeleteWe added 2% of TLT. That makes 4% now.
ReplyDeleteWe move slowly, and buy all assets only on down days.
Chinese economy had helped create 14m jobs around the world
ReplyDeleteMainly in Vietnam, aided by the soft and slightly limp Dong.
i didn't heed my own advice the other day to put that similar looking tube back in its proper drawer.
ReplyDeleteDo you have proper drawers, K?
We envisioned something a little racier.....
karen,
ReplyDeleteright you are to pay heed to "Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System.By Barry Eichengreen."
Ol' Paperback isn't long for this world..
~~
McB,
I saw your response on previous thread--it's, really, for me, the type of thing that needs to be sussed out over a can of Whiskey and, at least, a Notepad..
many variables involved, many definitions that need to be pinned down, and too few typings skillz to, proficiently, s p e l l it all o u t..
but, that said, I think we understand it in very similar ways..
the easiest summation, as has been stumbled acrossed before, "In-Flation in the Things you Need, De-Flation in the Things you Want..", no matter the 'unit of account', is the Square that I'd be laying the Kwacha down, on..
Cost of Existing= Up , Cost of Living= Down..
AAIP
The most delightful curves since Karen's....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/havenstein/2s30s.jpg
From the Wikileaks cable
ReplyDelete¶4. (C) GDP figures are “man-made” and therefore unreliable, Li said. When evaluating Liaoning’s economy, he focuses on three figures:
1) electricity consumption, which was up 10 percent in Liaoning last year;
2) volume of rail cargo, which is fairly accurate because fees are charged for each unit of weight; and
3) amount of loans disbursed, which also tends to be accurate given the interest fees charged.
By looking at these three figures, Li said he can measure with relative accuracy the speed of economic growth. All other figures, especially GDP statistics, are “for reference only,” he said smiling.”
---
How China cooks its books...
In February, local Chinese Labor Ministry officials came to “help” with massive layoffs at an electronics factory in Guangdong province, China. The owner of the factory felt nervous having government officials there, but kept his mouth shut. Who was he to complain that the officials were breaking the law by interfering with the firings, he added. They were the law! And they ordered him to offer his workers what seemed like a pretty good deal: Accept the layoff and receive the legal severance package, or “resign” and get an even larger upfront payment….
Such open-secret programs, writ large, help China manipulate its unemployment rate, because workers who “resign” don’t count toward that number. The government estimates that roughly 20 million migrant factory workers have lost their jobs since the downturn started. But, with “resignations” included, the number is likely closer to 40 million or 50 million, according to estimates made by Yiping Huang, chief Asia economist for Citigroup...
http://dailybail.com/home/wikileaks-china-gdp-numbers-are-man-made.html
interesting..
ibid.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/kwacha
ReplyDeleteand save your ngwee..for a Rainy Day..
as 15:50
Mark,
ReplyDeleteIn NYC there are three cups of coffee.
The BLANKFIEND mocha latte, $4 and up, charge whatever..
The MIDDLE MARKET brew, $1.50-$2, going up steadily.
The REGULAR JOE is fixed at $1. That's all the market will bear.
MEH
ReplyDeleteCost of Existing= Up , Cost of Living= Down..
Great summation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-20/daley-can-defer-payment-of-capital-gains-tax-on-8-3-million-jpmorgan-sale.html
ReplyDeleteMEH:
ReplyDeleteMiddle market: squeezed very tightly.
Upper market: Price insensitive, careless abandon.
Lower end market: Tight and nothing more to give.
no doubt Mark, got a little frustrated down there because blogger kept eating my posts, the entire conversation is very complex and hard to follow.
ReplyDeleteI think it's important though to make sure we look at it correctly, it's the difference between predicting the past and forecasting the future, as I see it.
next time I go through a-town I'll get in touch and we'll get some can's of whiskey.
http://www.coinsonly.com/coinOne.php?pk=87
ReplyDeletehttp://collectiblecoinsstore.com/zambia_242.htm
http://collectiblecoinsstore.com/malawi_232.htm
http://reviews.ebay.co.uk/DON-apos-T-GET-CAUGHT-OUT-BY-50-KWACHA-quot-SILVER-quot-COINS_W0QQugidZ10000000006865289
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Kwacha+Silver+Coins
I saw that wayward apostrophe.
ReplyDeleteI taste good...
ReplyDeletelol....can's
ReplyDeletecheck this out:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-20/daley-can-defer-payment-of-capital-gains-tax-on-8-3-million-jpmorgan-sale.html
soap opera's