from BR...
"Another thing: I have been adding more curated content to the Think Tank — not just the usual circle of authors, but additional people..."
Great! can't wait! Right? So first thing... Bright & Early this morning we get...
Exceprt (more like INTRO):
"U.S. stocks were mixed today, holding onto most of this week’s gains ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated nonfarm payroll figures. Anticipation is running high"
Jack McHugh
---
So let me get this straight, Ritzy makes the supreme effort to bleat about this fancy new stable of Arabian horses, and the first line penned tells me...
- what stocks did yesterday
- how that compares to the weekly performance
(both of which I could have easily figured out on my own if I'd just have sat & watched "The View" or "Oprah" with a tape ticker passing by underneath, and passed the time adding or subtracting droplets of water into an Erlenmeyer flask to reflect an up or down tick)...
But now comes the "piece de la resistance"!... drumroll please!
"...AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED NONFARM PAYROLL FIGURES..."
(cue the "Hee Haw" Donkey Laugh)
Actually - I like Jack McHugh (so it's nothing against him)... It's just this seemingly non-stop campaign for everything on the planet to wind up as a hyperbole ...
For fun, I actually decided to Google... "the most important in history"... Nothing scientific here, I just clicked on the first page that came up in the search for that one... It's a hoot (or "Hoot-Smalley" as Michelle Bachmann might call it)...
The signing of the Constitution was the most important event in history (according to this site)... Yeah - tell that to a Latvian Milk Farmer... Anyway, it becomes insufferable if you go in and read the things that were nominated (and more specifically - the explanations why)...
It's clear that whoever wrote that crap was getting paid by the job, not the thought, or man-hours... Here were some of my favorites...
#9 Death of Jesus - "Jesus was the founder of Christianity"... Yeah, he "founded" it... Sat down right there in a room and said "Hey guys - let's FOUND a religion"... We'll name it after... ME!... Yeah, that would be good, I like my name... It'll go DOWN IN HISTORY forevermore (the way that Mondays & Thursdays will never be the same again since the two recently anointed great prophets put their eternal stamp on those days)...
God created the world in 6 days... On the 7th day he rested saying "this day is reserved for ME"... (but nowadays 2 out of those other 6 have been weaseled away from the great God Almighty himself!)... Hallelujah! Can I get a witness?!?!
People will drink wine and eat little wafers in my honor... They'll pass along stale fruitcakes, and tie bows onto Lexuses in December... & they'll paint eggs and eat chocolate bunnies in the spring... Hey! I like this FOUNDING business..."
Anyway - go take a look at this page for kicks... At minimum, it'll relieve the nervous tension you have building up inside you while you're waiting for the MOST IMPORTANT NFP NUMBER IN HISTORY to be released... Here it is again... Observing "car wrecks" is very inspirational...
I decided to do my own MOST IMPORTANT list... Why? Because I've recently become a candidate for the MOST IMPORTANT SILLY ASSED BLOG IN ALL OF HISTORY! I walk to work every day...
No list would be complete without...
The Most Important Phone Call in the History of the World
What could this kid possibly be talking about on the phone at a moment like this?
The Most Important Cab Ride from the Airport in the History of the World
The Most Important Souvenir Shop in the History of the World
"What? You mean to tell me you're out of the little "pissing King Tut" statues?
I had my heart set on one of those!"
Oh wait... Time Out!... Another "whopper of a revelation" yesterday from TWSW(redesigns his)B (which, by the way, was the Most Important blog re-design in the History of the World)... Anyway, says TWSW(RH)B "One last item: I am debating bringing on a researcher/intern. I am not sure about the position"...
Not sure??? (says CV)... Why not start by dialing up the intern responsible for:
The Most Important...Ummm... "Book Signing"... In the History of the World
The Most Important 80's Tune in the History of the World
The Most Important Teleprompter in the History of the World
I'm going to cut it off right here and go eat the Most Important Breakfast Feast in the History of the World!
Go make your own history today... Or don't!... I doubt anyone will really notice what you do unless you shove it right in their face and halfway down their throat...
Very good interview with Chris Whalen-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dylanratigan.com/2011/01/06/chris-whalen-on-radio-free-dylan/
My favorite part is the description on the showcase jumbo deal. Refi 50% of a house and put the proceeds in muni's. Claim the interest deduction, and get the coupon, and hopefully the principal back, tax free.
Think about the property tax implications of this.
...yeah... and in the process, have the "paper" shuffled around incorrectly, have the bank come and toss you out of your house, and have the munis default...
ReplyDeleteYou too... can set foot on the path towards destitution...
@bob
ReplyDeleteI have a better plan...
Refi 50% of your house (and put it on the Oregon Ducks +2.5 in ther BCS Championship game)...
If they come in for you... You pay off the re-fi with your winnings...
If you lose... Just squat (and call Peggy Joseph for other great homeowner tips)
103,000...
ReplyDeleteoops...
OK so that's "socioeconomics" again... Now I'm definitely taking the UNDER for LSU-Texas A&M
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
ReplyDeleteWhy did the Unemployment rate fall to 9.4? Toward the bottom of the page, the participation rate for men 20 years old and older fell to 73.9%, the lowest of the year, and the first time under 74%.
and there are more women in the workforce over age 20, and their participation rate fell to 55.4 from 55.8.
ReplyDelete@BinT
ReplyDeleteprobably the sudden heavy demand for "internists" :-)
OH, FART. Actually the participation rate is worse than that. The rate keeps falling and if you have sense enough to look at the right side of the statistics, you'll see that the rate is below what I was reading in 2009.
ReplyDeleteMy mother thought I was smart, though, and that is all that matters...
CV,
ReplyDeleteIt is snowing again today. Amazing.
The participation rate for the entire population has dropped from 64.7 to 64.3 in the last 12 months.
ReplyDelete154540000 number in the labor force in April
153690000 today
So 850,000 peeps have dropped out of the labor force since April. 8 months.
@BinT
ReplyDeleteOff the labor force and on to the food stamp force...
Don't get me wrong... I'm not saying that there shouldn't be a food stamp program...
I only use that as a reference to point out that the government, I think, would like nothing more than to actually have most people on food stamps...
Same way a pimp wants his hookers to be drug addicts...
hey squad, been really sick this week, looks like everyone had two eyes on the NFP number but I'm thinking we should keep one eye on Euroland.
ReplyDeleteYes, CV. I just keep thinking about interest rates and gas prices. These people who are still giving up about finding a job...how can you just give up. I would bust a gasket before that happened to me. Mish had a picture yesterday of a firefighter in Gary, Indiana who was panhandling after being laid off. Young guy,I suppose who thought he had it made once he got his firefighter job. I just find things like this unbelievable. That my fellow Americans wouldn't move heaven and earth to get a new job. I just am more than astouonded, having grown up as the poorest kid in my rural class in northern Mississsippi.
ReplyDeletegood morning! not sure i can deal with the reaction to the news.. nor CV's morning audibles.. without coffee..
ReplyDeletemaybe something for the ninja's around here:
ReplyDeletehttp://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TSZtLhDjDnI/AAAAAAAAJoI/2kQmtupHmZE/s1600-h/NFP%5B2%5D.png
Ben,
ReplyDeleteYou need to rub garlic all over you. Won't help your cold, but it keeps your family from getting close enough to catch it.
:)
@karen
ReplyDeleteMorning Audibles not hard to digest...
Just a daily dose of 'silly' for a silly market...
There's always the 'Travel Channel'...
ReplyDeleteSee what kind of souvenirs can be brought back from Mos Iseley...
that'd keep the vampires away too Bruce.
ReplyDeleteI think lefty mentioned yesterday that as yields rose there would be a blitz to assign that to a stronger economy and CNBC would use it to encourage people back into stocks
well, I've watched CNBS for three days straight and that's certainly already going on in a major way, it's basically every segment and I'd say the vast majority think bond yields are rising right now because of economic strength.
Also, I watched Fast Money yesterday, they had Doug Kass on who "had it out" with the Fast money traders. He said he was over 50% cash waiting to put on "the big short trade"
ReplyDeletewas pretty much the only bearish call on this channel I heard the last few days.
Market roared on ADP numbers...
ReplyDeleteBut now that NFP is a stinker... Market roars (because it probably needs more stimulus)...
Welcome to the Republic of Banana...
They have hidden all the guns in the home of Governor Moonbeam:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-06/house-budget-panel-s-ryan-says-republicans-won-t-save-states-from-defaults.html
House Budget Chief Ryan Says No Bailouts to Prevent U.S. State Defaults
my husband (ex) disclosed last night that he just got sucked into EM for $150k.. he said he got tired of not making any money in his IRA.. (I had put it all in money market.) I wonder if he put the rest of the $$ to work in something equally as toppy..
ReplyDeletei sent him a multi year chart and said that he bot at the top.. but that maybe it would breakout and double..
his other funny comment was "i missed it by one day" missed what, I wonder, the dip?
"Congressman Paul Ryan, the Budget Committee chairman in the U.S. House of Representatives, said Republicans don’t intend to save states from debt defaults.
ReplyDelete“We are not interested in a bailout,” the Republican from Wisconsin said yesterday in Washington. Ryan said some states are “already telling us” that, when asked how he would respond if he was told one was in danger of defaulting."
...Some states are already telling us that???
..Wonder which ones that might be......?
he should have bought some AIG karen, rumor is they are going to start to pay a div!!
ReplyDeleteLots of back peddling going on...
ReplyDeleteIs your ex named Maxwell? "Missed it by THAT much..."
ReplyDelete...Maxwell Smart if you are too young, Karen.
@Bruce (9:40)
ReplyDeleteWe ought to do something creative like, any state that DEFAULTS loses half their number of delegates in the next electoral college...
That ought to put a good WHAMMY into things...
No whammies
ReplyDeleteyou may remember that we were thinking to cash it out and pay the penalty.. and the taxes.. but we did not for a couple of very good reasons.. the sizeable hit.. we exercised some stock options in a non-public that we have to pay taxes on as well.. and he is only a few years from 59.5.
ReplyDeleteOr, loses a representative temporarily until the states that have their fiscal house in order don't have to listen to any more whining.
ReplyDeleteI mean, think about it...
ReplyDeleteCalifornia, New York, Illinois, all BROKE (others too, but those are better examples)...
But in a national election, they get the most representation?
Yeah great... Show me you can run your finances, and you'll earn representation by merit, not by how many babies you can make to go on welfare...
“Should taxpayers in frugal states be bailing out taxpayers in profligate states?” Ryan asked during a forum near the Capitol. “Should taxpayers in Indiana, who have paid their bills on time, who have done their job fiscally, be bailing out Californians, who haven’t? No, that’s a moral hazard we are not interested in creating.”
ReplyDelete...oh, how utterly inane! What a maroon!
mostly, i was interested in the psychology of the thing.. MSM does a job on people subliminally.. he is a conservative fellow.. i do know remember that some associates just returned from Brazil and a meeting with PBR.. out of breath with excitement with how much $ they had to spend.. and how booming the economy was.. he was telling me i should consider buying PBR at the time.. i was already very familiar with that stock, however.. not touching it.
ReplyDeletehttp://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_DEAD_WILDLIFE_FACT_CHECK?SITE=INLAF&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
ReplyDeleteThe reality, say biologists, is that these mass die-offs happen all the time and usually are unrelated. Federal records show they happen on average every other day somewhere in North America. Usually, we don’t notice them and don’t try to link them to each other.
U.S. stocks assemble modest gains early Friday as investors assess payrolls data
ReplyDelete01/07/2011 09:48:03 AM
oops, a few minutes too soon.. can we have AR's swan dive now! okay, i'll settle for trickle down.
Did I just see DXY walking around with a cape on?
ReplyDeleteand this video might be worth a view
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbreaker.com/2011/01/what-does-2010s-best-performing-hedge-fund-manager-think-wouldve-happened-without-quantitative-easing-and-the-sequel/#more-33453
@karen
ReplyDeleteIt's "the Olympics"!
Ben,
ReplyDeleteCompletely agree with you thinking about bird and fish kills.
...But I still don't want to hear anything else about how you pick stocks based on sunspot activity. Yellow card for that..........
ben, as we approach 2012, i expect the "end of the world" meme to continue to assert itself.. a real boon to consumerism, if you get my drift.. spend like there is no tomorrow.. borrow and spend..
ReplyDeletei'm really fascinated with that municipal bond idea that Bob posted above!
Bruce,
ReplyDeletelol! I've never used only sunspot activity to select an investment, but it's certainly something I'll continue to pay attention to in terms of the larger backdrop of where we might be. One tool in a big box full of them.
"How strong is this historical connection between major economic downturns and the sunspot cycles? We can learn more about this connection of sunspots to economic downturns by directly graphing them together in Chart 103, above. Quite clearly, Chart 103 shows us that there is a rather strong connection between major recessions and the peaks of the sunspot cycles. There was one major exception, the last Great Depression, the bottom year of which (1933) can be seen in the trough between sunspot peaks. The next Great Depression may parallel this exception nearly to a T."
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/cosmos/solarwind/Sunspot%20Cycles%20&%20Human%20History.pdf
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm
ReplyDeleteOne other thing before I quit analyzing the jobs numbers today. Note the trend in the people employed in multiple jobs whose jobs are both part time only. And the trend in discouraged workers.
The recession ended in June of 2009...right?
Happy New Year Guys & Gals!
ReplyDeleteThis
chart of SPX 1900 to Present on BR's site should be adjusted to show the real cycle, the 18 year cycle... something to ponder...
1910 - BULL - 1928 - BEAR - 1946 - BULL - 1964 BEAR - 1982 - BULL - 2000 - BEAR - 2018 - BULL
You could shift the years 1 year to the right, works out about the same 1911-1929-1947- etc...
SPX - Daily
1296 - Major Resistance and ? 2011 High
1278 - Yesterday's High
... You Are Here ...
1260 - 2010 End Of Year
1242 -
Good Ben!....I tend to monitor crop circles myself..
ReplyDeletecrop circles are man made, the sun, not so much.
ReplyDeleteBut the sun never took an economics class....
ReplyDeleteBen22
ReplyDeleteWhy Are there 9 planets?
(it's 50% of 18... LOL)
cv--
ReplyDeletedo you know anything about these:
http://www.pump-n-seal.com/
AAIP
8 planets...Pluto was delisted.
ReplyDeleteha! if the market were smart and discounted the future.. this guy might have a leg to stand on:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/betting-on-a-jobs-recovery-christie-and-brown…/#comments
There are all sorts of interesting consistencies that people pay attention to that mean zip...who wins a political race will determine the outcome of the super bowl and so forth. But in medicine, it is especially prevalent and to be avoided most times. Often a result is based on sampling error or observer bias or skewed statistics that other researchers do not replicate when they re-perform the same studies. Cold fusion comes to mind also. There are just lots and lots of things we know to be true that aren't. We have to monitor our beliefs to constantly weed them out of our cerebrum.
ReplyDeleteBruce,
ReplyDeletefair enough, though it would seem you rejected sunspots being of any use at all from the start no?
there are people like Nenner who put a ton of weight into sunspot activity, you think he's just lucky?
ben, did you listen to Don Brownstein?! I cannot say, he answered some of the key questions clearly.. i will listen to the end.. he gave not even a hint of his views on the direction of anything.. unemployment, interest rates.. if you got something out of it, please share with me.
ReplyDeleteI am glad I took THE UNDER on the number.
ReplyDeleteAs soon as I saw Diane Swank with a 190k forecast I knew I was going to be right, staying on the low side. I was 130k. Anyway I didn't trade this so didn't get burned along with the other PM shorts this morning.
Long bond still very weak. Look for more of that into the auction of 30y next Thursday.
K.,
ReplyDeleteI think it is hard for anyone to go on MSM (except maybe Gary Shilling) and say that we are stuck in a Japanese scenario, 10-20 years of low growth and high underemployment, with a large segment of an entire generation (the freeters) on low pay, unable to establish permanent work and acquire the trappings of their parents successful lifestyle - homes, cars, boats and plastic shit from China. They will all have 4G phones, tho.
If I was Kudlow I would be saying that this was a Goldilocks number.
ReplyDeleteActually I am saying it is a Goldilocks number for divvys and HY.
Karen,
ReplyDeleteyeah I did, it's strange that some of these guys say they aren't allowed to talk about what they are doing, fund performance etc. other hedge fund guys get on tv and are pretty open about it, I found his comments on exogenous events most interesting at the very end, otherwise there wasn't too much there.
Pay attention to this. Once one Asian nation starts to tighten there will be knock on effects. Food inflation is becoming a really big problem.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-07/indonesia-stocks-set-for-biggest-two-day-loss-in-seven-months-on-inflation.html
OK, have to run, back at lunch.
ReplyDeletealso, I didn't like that he was touching knees with the interviewer, wtf? why do they have sit so close.
ReplyDeleteand while I'm at it, why is it that one of the wealthiest men in the world (WB) can't get a suit that fits him?
he's swimming in those things.
I hope we look back to this period of time as the "Muslim scare".
ReplyDeleteIt's one thing to go after OBL. It's quite another to keep hounding Obama as a Muslim.
Like, who cares? Aren't there enough reasons to criticize him without insulting him (and implicitly all Muslims) over some apparently false belief that Obama's a Muslim?
This reminds me of the Twilight Zone episode "The Monsters Are Due on Maple Street". "Hey, Obama, I saw you visit a Muslim country and wear some foreign clothes. What was that all about? Huh? Who were you talking to on the radio?"
BAC!
ReplyDelete"As soon as I saw Diane Swank with a 190k forecast..."
ReplyDeletethat's another one--almost as bad as 'the Suze'..
AAIP
also, she was a big RE+Equities-Cheerleader==pre-"explosive melt-down"..
tho, for the record, I believe it's "Swonk"
The long bond is about a dozen bps off where I am thinking about taking my first leg in. I'm loving it.
ReplyDeleteBen, I meant that I would listen to the end again.. he just wasn't clear at all..
ReplyDeleteand he certainly did not answer this question: What Does 2010’s Best Performing Hedge Fund Manager Think Would’ve Happened Without Quantitative Easing (And The Sequel)?
"why is it that one of the wealthiest men in the world (WB) can't get a suit that fits him?"
ReplyDeleteThey used to fit him. People shrink when they get old and, apparently, the old bat refuses to get replacements.
oops.. forgot to watch faz.. looks like it'll hit my target today.. but i think i should up it a bit.. yesterday i said 9.15..
ReplyDeleteMatthew,
ReplyDeleteyeah, I figured they were old, but what the hell, get a few new ones already or get them re tailored. It's probably all part of the nice old man act, for some reason it drives me nuts.
I agree with you on the long bond, I haven't put any money back to work there but it's starting to get interesting, could be some nice action on TLT calls before this year is over.
Karen,
yeah, he was pretty cryptic with everything, perhaps he didn't want to say without QE his fund might have blown up?
Ben, at 11:06.. LOL! I wish I was as smart as you.. of course, that was it.. MBS..
ReplyDeletethe diane swonk comments are funny, she did the same exact thing last NFP, and then all the priceless facial expression when the number comes in lower, which was oh so unexpected, fading her seems like a pretty good bet
ReplyDeleteregardless though, seems there is this growing wave of the economy = the stock market going on.......
@CV,
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on the UD game tonight? This is a big deal for tiny Delaware.
wunsacon-
ReplyDeleteI thought Obama was nicknamed "sarge" because he was the head muslim in charge-
not true?
volume really picking up on BAC here Karen, at the Tuesday lows
ReplyDeleteI'm still wondering if mutual funds are repositioning into financials because of how good the economy is getting....hehe.
JBTFD...NOT!!!
ReplyDeleteMackieFear,
ReplyDeletewho are the Hens playing?
maybe nothing, maybe something:
ReplyDeletehttp://market-ticker.org/post=176735
They play Eastern Washington. Pat Devlin needs to play well. I love that Division I has a playoff.
ReplyDelete11:10AM EST: 14.45 +0.61 (4.39%) REE
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=REE&ql=1
"Rare Earths".lotterytickets.vol.com (bomb)
ibid.
McB,
ReplyDeleteis there a Line on that Game?
I think last I saw it was UD +6
ReplyDeleteMackieFear,
ReplyDeletenot that I know anything, in depth, about it, but I'd be taking the pins + 'the Home team' (read: Hens)
Interesting post on the mortgage mess Ben. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI know there were changes earlier in 2010 that altered the way we'd look at the Baltic Dry Index for awhile, but what does the index mean now? China?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY&exch=IND&x=15&y=11
4200 in July, 1500 today?
@AAIP
ReplyDeleteI haven't heard of that thing before... I do know that FOODSAVER has worked very well... Occasionally you'll get something that loses its seal, but as long as you continue to occasionally monitor your stuff, it's pretty good...
As I said yesterday, I'm eating meats that were sealed 3-4 years ago and they're perfectly fine and tasty...
That link that you put sounds interesting though... The price for the unit isn't that high so it would be worth the experiment anyway...
Foodsaver does have the "proprietary bag" aspect, but the bags themselves are a lot more trusty than just trying to use a cheap hefty bag or something... Hefty's for me are just handy for a week or so (or doing marinades and things)...
The foodsaver bags you can also OVERSIZE and re-use... You keep lopping off another inch until there's no more space inside... I don't do it that way for meats, but YES for dry goods (yeast, flour, rice, sugar, etc.)...
And, as mentioned, it does have attachments for Mason Jars (which are extremely handy)... I especially like to use those for things I begin to "precook"... (like chicken stocks, beef stews, sauces, and things of that nature)...
SPX went below weekly R2 (1268.36) and just got back over it.
ReplyDelete@ben22
ReplyDeleteThe UD game isn't on any of the sportsbooks wager boards that I look at... Not surprised... Division II...
So as far as calling games is concerned, I lean heavily on which team the public is supporting (and mostly go the other way), or, if I like who the public is supporting, I just lay off the game completely...
No chance I'd ever back a team that had 90% of the public money on them... 60%??? perhaps, but not more than a unit...
The long bond is about a dozen bps off where I am thinking about taking my first leg in. I'm loving it.
ReplyDeleteMatthew, I think that you and Ben and I are going to be executing the same game plan. Yes, 4.60-4.80% is the RED ZONE for TYX.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'm going to keep an eye on that, not sure if it means anything but it might. I don't imagine many rules/laws going into place that will harm banks in any way.
As for BDI, I'm not sure it has much predictive capability, maybe it's even oversold here with RSI below 7 and there could be a decent bounce but that is a lower low than last summers and the 200 day now appears to be fairly strong resistance. Not a very healthy looking chart at all.
http://tinyurl.com/36m9hqc
ReplyDeleteSome Very Bad News For The "Sweep Fraudclosure Under The Rug" Brigade
*BANKS LOSE PIVOTAL FORECLOSURE CASE IN MASSACHUSETTS HIGH COURT
*MASSACHUSETTS TOP COURT DECIDES CLOSELY WATCHED IBANEZ CASE
*MASSACHUSETTS DECISION MAY AFFECT FORECLOSURE-CRISIS CASES
Read some of the responses from the court. Ruh roh.
@Wunsacon,
ReplyDeleteNice post on the O-man, I agree that's hardly something to focus on.
Why not focus on stuff like this, which was just posted on Dan's board:
"I refuse to leave our children with a debt they cannot repay, and that means taking responsibility right now, in this administration, for getting our spending under control."
Barack Obama, Feb. 29, 2009
So we are thinking it is going to a moderate risk-off day from here. It is snowing in NY, peep may want to take off early and not have much on, risk-wise.
ReplyDeleteExpect a strong Tsy complex into the close. Monday there is no data, so probably we will see people move out the risk curve again - we like the compressor at the close over the weekend - HYG + TBT.
I am assuming that we will see Bucky sold on Monday and a rally in the usual EM currencies, precious metals and equity suspects - EEM, XLE, XLB, XLF and REE (ROR). We will not be playing that rally in equities. If it doesn't actually appear, that would be a concern for bulls. AA reports on Monday. It will be BTE, ROR.
Ts will be sold Monday, and HYG and JNK will rally. That I think is a nailed on certainty with auctions ahead.
@ben22
ReplyDeleteFor example... LSU is giving 2 points to Texas A&M tonight (Andy will be at that game)...
80% of the money is on LSU (and the line hasn't moved)...
So no friggin way I back LSU in that spot... (Andy tells me that he's in a box with a bunch of LSU supports who are also laying big $$ on the Tigers)... That actually makes me WANT to take the Aggies (which I might do)...
But the direction I'll probably go is to FADE the OVER/UNDER... But right now that's at 50-50 (49)...
Vegas doesn't NEED the Aggies here... No question in my mind that Vegas is on the Oregon Ducks (because the public is on Auburn to the tune of 64%)... The public has also dropped Pitt like a hot rock because of the coaching turmoil there... I'll pick up Pitt at 40%...
Ask yourself why you're gettin a half point LESS to back the Ducks with 64% of the $$ on Auburn... Vegas is trying to suck in as much SEC $$ as they can...
They'll probably get their wish is LSU wins tonight...
2s30s is 390 bps,
ReplyDeletewhich is close to the LEFTY LIMIT of 400-410 bps.
We just need a slaughter of the 10y.
2s10s is 274, a bit of room here below the limit of 300.
Risk-reward is getting quite good here for TLT.
We need Marc Faber to be on TV more to stimulate sellers.
"Trezharee bondz are a sooeecidell infestment...
Ze dollahr vill bekumm vurthlezz !"
Hey, yall seen this movie before?
ReplyDeleteThen you know what to do...
@ahab
ReplyDeleteWhere u been dude?
In the Himilayas? On a trip? On vacation?
You mean you don't grace us with all your "Postcards from Hell" with pictures of you holding up the Leaning Tower of "Pizza" with one finger?... :-)
@ben22
ReplyDelete"taking responsibility right now, in this administration, for getting our spending under control."
Barack Obama, Feb. 29, 2009"
---
Maybe he was counting on a better "PROFIT AND EARNINGS RATIO" to get us out of the hole...
I like your style I, looks like an ABC off yesterday's highs, financials may have hit their lows for the day...
ReplyDeletealso, congrats on your best day, that's awesome man.
CV,
ReplyDeleteyeah, that or he's just full of shit, which is what I'm leaning towards.
@ahab
ReplyDeleteC'Mon Ahab! No blog would be complete without seeing you perform unworldly stunts like this...
http://www.popular-pics.com/PPImages/pisa-leaning-tower-illusion.jpg
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2011/01/06/tax-increase-plan-bigger-than-expected/
ReplyDeleteIllinois Lawmakers Propose 75 Percent Income Tax Hike
Telecoms are off again, today. We own NZT, T and VZ. We also own BIG Pharma (MRK, BMY, PFE). We own NLY and CIM. Yes, we are dividend sluts. We also own DF (no dividend), and it is up again today.
ReplyDeleteIf we see more selling we might buy something but this is just "trading around the core". We like WIN and FTR as well, but would buy only on a broad market puke, they aren't cheap. LLY looks good too at some point. We like yield.
..Can you recreate Detroit in the entire state of Illinois?
ReplyDeleteBAC -2.25%
ReplyDeleteWFC -3.00%
JPM -3.10%
C -1.00%
Run Forest Run!
@ahab
ReplyDeleteC'Mon ahab!
Show us how you can crush a pyramid in the palm of your hands... :-)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AQnUnBaNbAQ/R-7V6nCmazI/AAAAAAAABzA/Y2gqB4R5CkY/s400/Bob%2520Holding%2520Piramidaa.JPG
I like the idea of selling covered calls on T.
ReplyDeletenothing naked pervs.
C turns around every time it looks at $5.
ReplyDeleteThere are almost no shorts. Someone is a seller up there.
Bankers are getting ready to leave JOHN E with the bag.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile they will be heading for the safety of Ts.
Not yet though. The con isn't complete without AA earnings beat.
We need to hear The Death of Treasuries™ clarion call.
I'll reciprocate by sending clips of my last few jobs (before starting this blog)...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbGBVJSsVkM
Wonder how much money this InwestTool has cost people? The Random Walk was a bible for the EMH crowd.
ReplyDeleteBurton Malkiel
Burton Malkiel
ReplyDeleteHit -1067 on TICKS. Hasn't been below 1000 all week.
ReplyDeleteActually since 12/15/10.
ReplyDeleteI hear a rumbling...
ReplyDelete@Anon
ReplyDeleteBurton Malkiel is a GENIUS!
He goes on to emphasis the fundamental principal of valuation, which he teaches his students. “[A] stock ought to be worth the discounted present value of the whole stream of cash flows, future cash flows,” he says.
When you consider that at some point in time, the "whole stream of cash flows" will grind to zero...
Then it basically says that all stocks are WORTHLESS!
I believe that!
random walk, lmfao
ReplyDeleteand this idea that nobody can beat the market, reality has already proven otherwise, lots of people out there that have done it consistently.
his comments about the news, hilarious.
Nice action today. A classic Sell the News day. Wonder if we have already seen the Top?
ReplyDeleteYou can be absolutely sure that they will JBTFD on Monday.
HY is holding up pretty well so far. Credit is usually much smarter than equities so it doesn't seem like they see any major meltdown ahead. TLT looks like a really nice fade here. Hope it goes higher.
Be aware that Sell the News is a bull phenomenon, this means that we are clearly still in a mini-bull dominated by JBTFD psychology.
We don't need to worry about a confirmed return of the bear until we see a reinstatement of Sell the Rumor/Buy the News, which means that large shorts are in place again, with consequent squeezes.
Wonder if we have already seen the Top?
ReplyDeleteYou know there is one Top that I would love to see....
From DR today:
ReplyDelete"At what point do these folks at the ADP just throw in the towel and discontinue the survey? I mean, at what point do they finally just come out and tell us “oops, our methodology is obviously doing more harm than good?” It’s obviously not helping anyone accurately predict the nonfarm payroll data. Through 2010, the average absolute “miss” was 90k, and when the typical headline figure is something around 150k, that “miss” is not exactly trivial."
I wonder how many of us would stay employed in our jobs producing that kind of margin of error on such a consistent basis, I'm guessing none of us.
Karen - Your call on FAZ was FAZtactic.
ReplyDeleteI hope you got a chance to make a little money.
Mangy Mutt
Now testing weekly R1 (1263.00)...
ReplyDeleteWeekly SPX candle isn't gonna be a thing of beauty if this keeps up...
ReplyDeleteI wonder how many of us would stay employed in our jobs producing that kind of margin of error on such a consistent basis, I'm guessing none of us.
ReplyDeleteA lot of the fixed income guys are still employed at Morgan Stanley after they had their heads up their ass most of last year....
Clearing throat...K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E!!!
ReplyDeleteThis puke in equities was way overdue.
ReplyDeleteVIX is doing absolutely nothing, by the way. So, there isn't really anyone ready to cover here, it will have to be dip buyers rather than shorts.
That was very close to a yellow card...analymous...
ReplyDeletethis is the biggest % down day we've had in some time, has to be back to november.
ReplyDeleteMutt, leaving my faz on for now.. probably won't take it all with me over the weekend..
ReplyDeleteClearing Throat... BEEEEEENNNN!
ReplyDeleteQuick! Print us some more!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_Y6GKEfUYM
CV
ReplyDeleteI'm waiting to see if the weekly fully engulfs last weeks doji.
Oh...here they come right on cue. The JBTFD lunch crew.
HYG:LQD is a great indicator or $spx direction.. unfortunately, it can be erratic.. and the trend is still up.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to go grab up all the extra pizza slices and chinese food boxes that traders had to leave behind...
ReplyDeleteI'll be right back...
greenspan video.. from today:
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/video/greenspan-prove-i-was-wrong/881A4154-8710-4BCB-952B-219E94F704FB.html
re: covered calls on TLT,
ReplyDeleteI've been selling "covered" puts(the 92's) on TLT last couple months. If they get put to me this month my cost basis is down around 88, I'll probably hold on for a bit.
"something happened in mid december.. the wealth effect.." is working! oh my.. you must watch the video..
ReplyDeletei cannot stomach greenspan.. someone else will have to listen to his spew..
ReplyDeleteI think we need to see the SPY below 125 minimum before thinking the trend might have changed, today's a bit nastier than what we've seen in a while but I don't see it as a game changer at this point
ReplyDelete"down around 89" I mean
ReplyDelete(1:07)
ReplyDeleteYou lost me at "hello"
The moves you are seeing are way bigger than anything domestic.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see someone do a macro investigation of sorts... a tally of european equity sales made in euros, conversion stats over to USD, and then how much of that USD money comes into US stocks and bonds...
Because we are the only ones who arent falling for the austerity trap.
I'll pass on the greenspan video, not much interested in anything he has to say, not exactly sure why anyone would be at this point
ReplyDelete@karen (1:08)
ReplyDelete"Prove I was Wrong" (he says)... BWAAAAAHHHH!
All these people, from Reagan, to Clinton-Bob Rubin-Larry Summers, Mr. Magoo, the Beard & Obama are all just "one trick ponies"...
The only solution to any problems is a higher stock market...
Hell... Now I DO hope we get to ol Lazlo's 2300...
ReplyDeleteJust so I can throw the 'wealth effect' back at Mr. Magoo and ask him why things aren't any better...
We sold some TIP. Just raising cash.
ReplyDeleteNot doing anything.
Our plan is to rotate gradually out of HYG/TIP into AGG/LQD/TLT.
Not very exciting stuff.
Bulls pulled out all of the stops to close those gaps on the 5 min SPX chart. LMAO.
ReplyDeleteCV-
ReplyDeletesorry man- don't do travelogues- that's fodder for other web sites-
but seriously haven't been anywhere anyways- outside of a bit of snow boarding (comes to find out- those days are behind me)-
took the day off today and am in deep contemplation
also- backing up to mt first comment regarding Obama being the head muslim in charge- actually stole that from this video (but changed some words around)- just thought it was funny-
check out grill the dude's wearing- too damn funny- good tune though ("who's the boss playa" line kills me)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXL2RQLP-0k
SNB announces that it added Portuguese bonds to the restricted list: http://tinyurl.com/2v63sur
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT&m=2011-02
ReplyDeletesomething like selling the 93p and buying the 91c should be contemplated..
though, it'd be more attractive if this price action was reversed..
At 1:17PM EST: 92.36 +0.50 (0.54%)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TLT&m=2011-02
another thought is to sell the 92p & buy the 95c (1-for-2)
AAIP
AAIP is the boss playa...
ReplyDeleteKaren is the boss of la playa...
ReplyDelete:)
AAIP,
ReplyDeleteCould you explain to me why people seem to regard selling covered calls a "conservative" strategy, while selling "covered" puts(I don't know what the jargon is for selling puts you have the cash to cover) is never mentioned? Why sell covered calls when you could just sell the puts? They are equivalent.
I am enjoying these simple charts: http://gicharts.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeleteWith HYG down today, we are slightly closer to Karen's panties.
ReplyDeleteWe prefer to play today's action by shorting Tsys rather than going long equities. This move doesn't seem finished off here. If we see a drop to 1247-1250 then we might trade EEM from the long side.
ReplyDeleteCredit markets are buying risk now. Let's see where we finish.
I-Man-
ReplyDeleteI kind of botched it -phonetically it should really read-
"Who da Boss playa"
what did you think of that grill? I'm going to get one diamond encrusted- so I can be "like a boss"
then there is this rendition by the SNL crew-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHS-0B8AGSI
spoonman,
ReplyDeleteit's a good Q:
Put sales are a great way to get paid for being (synthetically) Long..
but, all in all, re: Options, peep have little Understanding of the Topic..and, as a +, most 'Brokers' just Parrot: "They're tooo Risskee!", when the Topic is broached..
LSS: let the Fool(s) say what they want, they're Ignorance is there Loss (in more ways than one)
but, at the EOD, remember, ABS "Always Be Selling", esp. in Options--most expire @ 0--"Harvest what is there"
AAIP
DF is today's screamer.... up 10% !!
ReplyDeletekaren,
ReplyDeletethose are interesting Charts..
ibid.
Thanks AAIP, was afraid I was missing something blindingly obvious...You're the old MEH, right?
ReplyDeleteyeah, it's way easier to make money selling options than buying, my biggest wins have been in the buying but that's when you get both the price and timing right but in terms of the amount of wins, way in the favor of selling options, for me anyway.
ReplyDeletepeople are brainwashed that options are too risky, in fact they can be a great way to reduce risk
As for ABS, I am slowly learning this...
ReplyDelete@karen (1:49)
ReplyDeleteLooks like you need to send a copy of that chart to your "ex"
@ahab/I-Man
ReplyDeleteWhatchu home boys talkin' bout "boss playa"?
I got cash M-O-N-E-Y sez I got da the "boss playa" here...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chairman-bun-s-da-house
Word!
Right now looks like the daily S2 (1266.36) is the line in the sand. They tested the daily S3 (1262.30) but that was a head fake (for now).
ReplyDeleteI thought Tony Danza was the boss
ReplyDelete"yeah, it's way easier to make money selling options than buying"
ReplyDeleteKind of like "being the house" (in Vegas)...
Or... hanging around the craps table and playing the DON'T PASS line...
spoonman,
ReplyDeleteayup..
AAIP
(Another Anonymous Internet Post)
I thought it was Ricky Ross...
ReplyDeletesomebody appears to have made some sizeable put buys on the Q's
ReplyDeletehow dare they what with CES in full swing right now
"...they're Ignorance..."
ReplyDeletethey're=their..
I always bet the pass line when I'm shooter, I arrange the dice just so and then I make it rain, you back up the truck when I'm on 4 or 10 son
ReplyDeleteror
@ben22
ReplyDeleteI just always call on my trusty assistant "Plenty O'Toole" when I need a shooter...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf4xw4mE2Xk
it's funny that Mr. Equities in Dallas is getting all the play today, his favorite stock for 08 was AIG yes?
ReplyDeleteI'm sure he's got the fundies down this time though....
CV, i did email it to him.. the eem chart, that is..
ReplyDeleteCV,
ReplyDeletedid you see the highest rated comment on that video, gotta love utube.
Was Sean Connery the best Bond?
K.,
ReplyDeleteSome people like to be liked, and like to be with the crowd. They are more likely to buy into a double top than to sell one.
Was Sean Connery the best Bond?
ReplyDeleteIs the Pope German?
oops... h&s of faz ten minute right now.. i think a break of 9.05 will seal its fate to the downside.. and spx to the upside JBTFD lives on (till it doesn't)
ReplyDeleteon faz, i meant
ReplyDelete"Was Sean Connery the best Bond?"
ReplyDeletedoes a bear shit in the woods?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtOckG5tNhc
More fun with govies:
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/italy-invisible-elephant.html
Who said bonds were boring?
again, classic comments on the video
ReplyDeletetwo bears one cup
ROR!
couldn't they even wait till the final hour to ramp this thing?
ReplyDeleteIts about to get nasty for anyone still short from this morning...
ReplyDeleteThe mystery of the 10% spike in DF today. The Tepper effect.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/01/07/david-tepper-what-is-he-doing-with-dean-foods/?mod=yahoo_hs
We are not Tepper. Whatever you might think. We have more hair for a start, we are much more handsome, and almost as successful.... and we know a decent falling knife when we see one !!
Ben,
ReplyDeleteI just tried to play out Lars' bass pedal routine on "One" with my feet...
Couldnt even come close.
That dude has got to be one of the fastest technical drummers out there...
(giving "Justice for All..." a spin.)
ah, that would be me, I-Man.. lol.. i'm watching it tho.. unfortunately i need to get ready to go somewhere .. i should just close now and get in the shower.. but, darn, i am just not that smart!
ReplyDeletespy 127.10 will be my line in the sand, laughing.
ReplyDeleteI,
ReplyDeleteyeah that song is the bomb, one of my favs by those guys, you gotta get some of these to bang that one out:
http://www.gibraltarhardware.com/?cid=26&fa=category
SNB let the world know Greece & Portugal bonds are crap, EURUSD under 1.30, DXY standing tall, AUDJPY & EURJPY down big, gold flat, silver flat, oil flat. Yet they are still trying to rally this POS.
ReplyDeletetwo yellow cards are a red card...in the same scrum...
ReplyDeleteb22 @ 2:49-
ReplyDeletethat's funny
I also liked-
Little Bear: "What the fuck . . ."
ror
Mish has now posted about the participation rate that we noted this morning. And it is still snowing...
ReplyDeleteNever mastered the double bass pedal, but I did manage to figure out John Bonham's little triplet thing with the one foot before I quit playing set.
ReplyDeleteOne of these days I'm going to buy another drum kit, but a little low on the list of wants...
Jet boat and a few more fishing rods first... then maybe a sick truck to whip my boat around with.
Gotta pay off the debts first... stupid student loans. They didnt teach me shit in college.
couldn't they even wait till the final hour to ramp this thing?
ReplyDeletewe will ramp you any time you want, baby....
actually have to roll into the office to attend to an email-
ReplyDeletein any event- confidence building exercise- every time someone makes a great trade- or even beats someone at checkers-
stand up and say- "Who the Boss Playa"
later gators . . .
LB @ 2:55, LOL!! you have got to be effing kidding me !! Boy, did I blow it with you!
ReplyDeleteBTW, you all are about the only people that get to hear me curse, laughing.. my ex-husband being the exception : )
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/07/business/07sec.html?_r=1&ref=business
ReplyDeleteU.S. Inquiry Said to Focus on California Pension Fund
"If federal investigators are able to make a case that California misled investors about the risk in its pension fund, it would send a powerful signal to other public funds, which almost without exception base their financial reporting on average annual investment returns of about 8 percent a year, something hard to defend in today’s markets, no matter what the investment mix."
Oh, Bruce.. that pension fund thing is a gorilla isn't it? one of Grantham's fears.. just how to turn 2% into 8%.. that is the question.
ReplyDeleteIs the Pope German?
ReplyDeleteDoes a bear shit in the woods?
Real question is:
Does the pope shit in the woods?