Weekend Edition - Week 11 NCAA Picks & Week 10 NFL Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread])

2010 NCAA Picks (aggregate): 35-26-2
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +1
NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (-$120)* (bad week last week, do as I "say" not as I do - lol)

---

NFL Picks (aggregate): 65-57-5
NFL (unit picks differential): +15
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+1,230)

---

WEEK 11 NCAA PICKS (pick in BOLD CAPS)
Pittsburgh at CONNECTICUT (+5) - 1 unit (from Thursday Night)
Connecticut 30 - Pitt 28 - (+100) - Correct

BOISE STATE (-34.5) at Idaho - 1 unit
Boise State 52 - Idaho 14 (+$100) - Correct

San Diego State at TCU (-27) - 2 units
TCU 40 - SDSU 35 (-$220) - Incorrect
MARYLAND (-2.5) at Virginia - 2 units
Maryland 42 Virginia 23 (+$200) - Corrrect
IOWA STATE (-2.5) at Colorado - 2 units
Colorado 34 - Iowa State 14 (-$220) - Incorrect

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - [results] Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: West Virginia, Penn State, Miami Hurricanes, Wisconsin, Clemson, Nebrasksa, Notre Dame, Navy, Cal

Gameday thoughts here...A few "multi-unit" picks on the board (multi-unit is usually 2-3 on NCAA instead of 5-10 for NFL)... I don't like betting on acne ridden kids who were just at their senior proms a few months ago... These multi-units are more a reflection of having gone 2-0 during the week (and being BLANK-O'ed last weekend)... I'm trying to get some momentum going (as my aggregate pick total for NCAA for the year is still good, but my unit plays dipped in to the red for the first time all year)... Actually though, with the two weekday games, I'm back up...

I'm still riding Boise State & TCU until the NCAA decides that bowl games & BCS standings are bullsh**... But, if you have to play THEIR game, it's also a good time of the year to start looking at "bowl eligible" teams (who are playing just a little harder)... You need 6 wins to be qualified for a bowl (which means $$ for the school if they get in one - even if it's just called the "weed eater", the "pizza pizza", or the "muffler" bowl [sponsors])... Frankly - Nowadays EVERYTHING should just be called the US TAXPAYER bowl until it's called the "I'M DEFAULTING IN MY SOVEREIGN DEBT BOWL"

Results:

Week 11 NCAA Picks (ATS): 9-5-0
Week 11 unit pick differential: Even
Week 11 wager total: (-$40)
---

NFL Preview: Game Write-up for NFL to be posted before Sunday kickoff
Week10 Injury Report (for FANTASY PLAYERS):

WEEK 10 NFL
BYE WEEK: (Oakland, San Diego, New Orleans, Green Bay)

THURSDAY GAME

 Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons by 1
Game write-up was in Thurdsay comment section... When I get done the chores at the farm (bailing the hay, stacking the wood, closing the pool, stocking the cellar, manuring the crop beds) I'll dig it up and paste it here because I know all you readers are too lazy to do 3 clicks... :-)
CV took: Falcons for (0 units)
Falcons 26 - Ravens 20

EARLY GAMES

 Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST)
Line: Colts by 7

Peyton Manning is working with nothing this year (but still getting it done)... The INDY defense is 2nd to last in the NFL in rushing defense, so, despite what many fantasy owners "hoped' would be better production from Cedric Benson, they shouldn't sit him in this game...

Frankly, this has the potential to be a yawner... All Indy wants to do is get "wins" (style points don't matter)... Lucas Oil stadium can get hopped up when it's an important game, but all you may hear are crickets here... That means Carson Palmer (who finally awoke from the dead last week and threw some pretty damn accurate passes), might be able to get the ignals called...

The Colts have to play the Patriots & Steelers in successive weeks after this, so they might be looking a little ahead... I'm taking the BENGALS for (5 units)...

 Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 EST)
Line: Jaguars by 1.5

I love THE PUBLIC... All you usually need to do is watch how they react to things to figure out what teams to play, or what teams to avoid each week... Now, there are never any GUARANTEES 9because footballs are shaped funny and bounce in weird ways... But the public "loved" the Texans after their week #1 vs. the Colts... Now? They've dropped them because they've lost 2 straight... I'd remind them that the two they just lost were against the same division rival Colts (on the road)... Then a home loss against a desperate Chargers team (that actually leads the league in many statistical categories)...

I think the Jaguars are kind of a farce... They're doing better than I thought they would, but I think they'[re very lucky to have the record they do... The public looks at stats, and they saw David Garrard light up the Cowboys a few weeks ago... They're looking at the Houston #31 ranked pass defense and are probably thinking the Jags put up 30 points here...

Maybe so... But in that case, I'm still taking the points because I think the Texans put up 31... TEXANS for (5 units)... 
 Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks at Miami Dolphins (1:00 EST)
Line: Thumbtacks by 1.5

So I guess this is Randy Moss (with his 3rd team of the year)... I can honestly say, I'm interested in this game to see how RM stretches the field for Chris Johnson...

Lost in all of that will be the fact that Chad Pennington is back in at QB (replacing Chad Henne who has tossed 9 picks in the last 3 games)... Miami needs to show it can win against good teams (and they are 0-4 at home this year (which is the reason they're home dogs)... They sent CB Nate Allen packing this week (who was picked up by the Houston Texans)... CB Vontae Davis has held Randy Moss to no catches in the last 3 games (while RM was with the Patriots)...

I really don't know how to handicap this game... The line seems fair, and the public is on the Titans, so I'll go with the DOLPHINS for (0 units)...
 Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (1:00 EST)
Line : Vikings by 1

This is probably game 2 of the "will chilly get fired" saga... I'm going to come right out and say that I don't really like the Vikings (as a team)... They're just like the Cowboys in that they have a lot of talent, but are underachievers...

With their backs up against the wall here (the season is not TOTALLY lost yet), they still have a chance to prove something... One head scratcher is the fact that the defense is not performing even close to what people expected... They were near the bottom in sacks as of a week ago, and were middle of the pack in rushing defense (a category they ststistically have dominated over the years)... They started to get it together against the inept Cardinals last week, and might be able to carry some of that momentum through into this game by terrorizing Jay Cutler...

It's really hard to go against the Bears at home, but I'm going to side with the VIKINGS on a hunch (0 units)...
 Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EST)
Line: Bills by 3

Detroit has to be feeling disrespected by being made 3 point dogs to a winless team... The spread suggests that on a neutral field, the teams are about even... Matthew Stafford is out, again, for the Lions (so maybe that has something to do with it), but frankly, his substitute Shaun Hill is a capable backup that is not prone to many mistakes...

Where the Lions struggle is winning on the road... They have not won a road game in the NFL in more than 3 years... That's probably where this line comes in... In addition, you are usually rewarded when you take winless teams and the points... Trouble is, you're LAYING points here...

So I don't know what to do... The smart play is to take the Bills, but I'l going to side with the LIONS just for the heck of it... If the Bills can manage to lose again (and stay winless), they'll be a great pick-up next week... LIONS for (0 units)...
 New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST)
Line: Jets by 3

Speaking, of disrespect, Colt McCoy, fell way behind Sam Bradford & Jimmy Clausen in last years draft... Nobody expected him to do much in the NFL... But when both Jake Delhomme & Seneca Wallace went down with injuries, McCoy has been thrust in to the starting role... How has he responded...

Well, he lost to the Steelers on the road, BEAT the Saints on the road, and trounced the Patriots at home last week... Now wait a minute, you can't credit McCoy for those wins... The defense and other aspects (like Peyton Hillis), have really stepped up... But at least McCoy is playing smart, and not making many mistakes... It's a matter of time before a rookie DOES, in fact, make a mistake, and the jets are a defense who are likely to force that issue...

I'll take the JETS here (but by the slimmest of margins) and go (0 units)... If McCoy beats Rex Ryan & company, I'll build a statue for him (made out of paper mache' of course)...


Homer Jones - first everMonday Night Football telecast

 Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST)
Line: Bucs by 7

The Bucs have been playing in "thrillers" week after week... Last week they lost a chance to win (on the goal line) to the division leading Falcons)... Remember in college how you always used to get a cold or the flu the week after final exams (and the all-nighters)... That's the spot the Bucs probably find themselves in right now...

Carolina has had one of the most unproductive offenses in the NFL this year... Largely due to the fact that left tackle Jeff Otah has been out for the year... Add to that Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams with injuries, Steve Smith in & out of the lineup, and a musical QB situation...

I'm willing to take a shot with them this week (off a bye week)... Things may have finally sunk in and they can just relax, play football, and play a spoiler role... PANTHERS for (4 units)...  

LATE GAMES
(game writeups before 4pm kickoff)

 Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (4:05 EST)
Line: Chiefs by 1

CV leaning towards: low unit play on CHIEFS - unless, of course, Denver goes with the "throwback" attire...


I have a lot of "calls" to make on these afternoon games, but I also have a lot of CHORES to do (trying to take advantage of what might be the last unseasonably mild weekend of weather... So SORRY... I'm just going to throw out some "unit play" picks (with no game write-ups)...

I'll go with the CHIEFS for (1 unit) here...

 St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (4:15)
Line: 49ers by 4

CV will take the RAMS for (1 unit)...


 Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (4:15)
Line: Cardinals by 3

CV will take the SEAHAWKS for (0 units)...
 Dallas Cowboys at New York Football Giants (4:15)
Line: G-Men by 13.5

CV will take the COWBOYS for (0 units)...


SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
I'll try to get the chores done and have a game write-up here... (Note: it could be a high unit play)...

 New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST)
Line: Steelers by 4.5
CV leaning towards: high unit play on PATRIOTS

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

 Philadelphia Dog Killers at Washington Redskins (8:35 EST)
Line: Dog Killers by 3
CV leaning towards: low unit play on Dog Killers

RESULTS:

Week 10 NFL Picks (ATS): 10-4-0
Week 10 NFL unit pick differential: +7
Week 10 NFL wager total: (+$510)



AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: POMO deeeeez…



SPX
Bearish long day (failed to close above the 11/9/10 midpoint). Midpoint below EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1193.57). The monthly 3LB reversal has been placed on IR (may be back sooner than expected). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Now at the weekly 3LB reversal (almost had it). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.18).



VIX
Bullish long day (late confirmation of inverted hammer?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Slammed the gap shut. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.83). Forced out of the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed new 0% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1410.10).



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Back below 1.3782 (.09 fib from high). Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4202). Had a weekly 3LB reversal down.



JNK
Bearish long day. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the Gann 4x1. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 41.25).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Confirmed bearish thrusting. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Closed above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 24.84). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal up.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish long day. Completely failed to get above 11/09/10 midpoint. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 4924.46).



CRB
Bearish LONG day (plus a gap down). Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below SMA(21). Still failing the Gann 1x1. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 319.11).



XLF
Bearish long day. Candle addition had said it was bearish. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.23).



Morning Audibles

The minis traded all the way down to support overnight and are in the process of getting kick saved by the Benny money printing machine... (e-mini chart courtesy Daneric)...


I've got to be out most of the morning, so I apologize I can't entertain you today with stories about tractor pulls, NASCAR, & whittlin' (all tied into capital markets - of course)...

So I'll just offer you up a plate of SPAM and be done with you...You all know what SPAM is right? If not, you will soon... It's what grandma will serve you up AFTER she's run out of catfood... Good Luck trading!



AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: You can't fix debt problems with more debt. My job is to show you what happens when that solution is chosen.



SPX
Doji day (struggling to close above the 11/9/10 midpoint). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1193.57). The monthly 3LB reversal has been placed on IR. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above the 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Now above the weekly 3LB reversal. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.18).



VIX
Bearish long day (failed to confirm inverted hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below all SMA's. Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Failing to close gap. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.83). Getting too comfortable in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed new 0% retrace. Still looks to have its mojo. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1383.10).



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Back below 1.3782 (.09 fib from high). Back below SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.4202). Also below weekly 3LB reversal price.



JNK
Spinning top day. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the Gann 4x1. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 41.25).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish short day. Failing to get above 11/09/10 midpoint. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4818.62).



CRB
Bearish long day. Closed the gap. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Still failing the Gann 1x1. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 312.30).



XLF
Doji day. Candle addition says even more bearish. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.23).



XRT
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 44.03). Holiday estimates may be too high.



Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.