WEEKEND EDITION - G-20

Reportedly, the Canadian's have spent over $1 billion on "security" to tame the unruly mobs... (Thanks Nic for foto)...



But through deep investigative reporting, CV can say the high price tag was used to make sure they had enough "asshats" to go around for all the attendees...


Let's do a knowledge exchange... If all you Americans out there can tell me who's winning "So You Think You Can Dance", or any "American Idol" contest, EVER, I'll share with you a few bullet points about the purpose of this meeting...


First... A quick glance at recent history...



A year ago, when the global financial meltdown threatened a corresponding economic collapse, the G-20 leaders gathered in London and pledged to work in concert to stimulate growth. That meant opening the taps for more than a trillion dollars in public spending and confidently predicting it would save jobs and increase output...


It was mostly the brilliant strategy of this class of clowns that was supposed to nurture that concept off an academic chalkboard and into reality...

Result = FAIL (and one of the classmates just quit)

So, this time around, the BOSS of that class of clowns has decided that since the other strategy failed, then the idea is to double down on spending...

"Despite facing a political backlash over the rising debt, the Obama administration remains committed to a policy of spend now, cut the deficit later. And the administration has urged its G-20 partners to do the same."

On the other side of IDEAVILLE

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel explicitly said Friday that leaders should trim deficits, setting aside concerns that this would slow or reverse the economic recovery."


So clearly the idea now is to make Merkel walk up this steep hill and when she is out of breath and panting like Romer certainly would be, then beat her to a pulp and give her a "pink belly"...

"We need to act in concert for a simple reason," Obama said Friday as he made his way to Ontario's lake country. "This crisis proved, and events continue to affirm, that our national economies are inextricably linked."

In English, that means...



"We are both heading for the cliff, who jumps first, is the Chicken".

In any case, whatever happens for the erstwhile messiah, the GOOD NEWS is that since he's running out of things to blame GWB for, due to the convenient location of this G-20, in the end he can just...


But CV is still wondering why they're all in Toronto??? I mean, why didn't they just send them over to Vancouver where the Olympics were just a few months ago...

They could have sent them all one by one down the luge track at Whistler Mountain and try their luck with "Deadman's Curve"... At minimum, a spectacle like that would have commanded top advertising revenue, and helped mitigate the cost for this fia(t)sco...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



SPX
High wave day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) was tested (failed). Back below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint now below EMA(10). Back below the trendline using 2010 lows but above the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (barely). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1117.51). Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (3 more days). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) held (91.80 is next). Still below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 88.23).



VIX
Spinning top day. Back below weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint back above 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (yet).



GOLD
Bullish day. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 1258.30).



EURUSD
Hanging man day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (passed). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2244).



JNK
Bullish long day. Tested the 38.2% retrace (passed). Back above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bullish long day. Bullish move still looks weak. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).



WTI
Bullish long day. Back above the SMA(21), SMA(55), and SMA(144). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the weekly 3LB mid at 77.58 (passed). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.94).



BP
Bearish short day. I thought it was hurricane season {snark}. Still below the 0.0% retrace (guess that's going to get changed). Still below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.68).

Morning Audibles 6.25.10 - Look!... Nevermind Don't

I'm just going to save my breath and put up the same chart as yesterday...

One either see the fractal or they don't...



Today we will see what the PPT is made of, or it could be very quiet out there ahead of the G-20 meeting...

There are no such things as stock market crashes when we have "wizards" & "smart guys" in charge

THAT's why the markets are so resilient? Right... People go to be KNOWING that their money and INWESTMENTS are safe... If we EVER EVER go down... It'll probably be by way of a 1 point loss every day... You know... It would therefore take us around 5 years to float down to zero...

Calmly and orderly... 


AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



I dream of hitting the wall of the creditcane.



SPX
Bearish long day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is anxiously waiting for retest (and got it). Back below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint now below EMA(10). Back below the trendline using 2010 lows but above the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (barely). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 1117.51). Again confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.



DXY
Doji day. Thinking about down move. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) held (91.80 is next). Back below the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.40).



VIX
Bullish long day. Back above weekly 3LB mid (aka bullish bias). Midpoint back above 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (yet).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 1258.30).



EURUSD
Doji day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed yet again). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1936).



JNK
Bearish short day. Tested the 38.2% retrace (failed). Back below the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10) - barely. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Spinning top day (again). Bulls looking weak. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).



10YR YIELD
Bullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested 0.0% retrace (passed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 33.79). Can you say 2.0%?



XRT
Bearish long day. Consumers are enjoying staycations. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.92).

Morning Audibles 6.24.10 - G-20 Cometh

Around the horn this morning:


Merkel Tells Obama to "stick it where the sun don't shine" Germany Won’t Heed Calls to Focus on Growth


Excerpt:
OBAMA
The G-20 must “safeguard and strengthen” the economic recovery and promote “global demand growth that avoids the imbalances of the past,”


"order to public finances should be restored in the “medium term.”





MERKEL
"Germans are more likely to spend money if they feel the government “is taking precautions” to ensure solid finances..."

Gimme a minute to try and figure out which of these ideas is moronic...





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Mortgage Bond Prices Rise to ‘Insane’ Records: Credit Markets


Excerpt:
“It’s gotten insane,” said Scott Simon, the head of mortgage-backed securities at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund. “This is rarefied air.”


U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly fell last month and purchases of new houses tumbled to a record low, underscoring how borrowers’ ability to qualify for financing is limited even as rates drop."


First of all they forgot the "P" in PIMPCO... Anyway, I'm trying for the life of me to figure out how in the world home sales could POSSIBLY be falling (after homebuyer tax credits expired)... 


Oh wait... Maybe I found something...


Prison Inmates Claimed Homebuyer Tax Credit, $28 Million in Fraud


Excerpt:
"The United States Treasury Department released a report today declaring $9.1 million in tax credits were fraudulently claimed and received by more than 1,200 prison inmates. Some 241 inmates who filed for homebuyer tax credit are on death row."






---


But I'm sure Chris Dodd & the rest of those hardworking CONgress people are working on "fixing" that today... Well, not "TODAY" today because this is what they have to vote on...


Hollywood Backs Ban on Box-Office Futures in Financial Overhaul


Excerpt:
"Lawmakers negotiating an overhaul of financial-markets regulation are weighing a ban on futures contracts pegged to box-office receipts"


Hollywood, meet Lloyd... "We're from Goldman Sachs & we're here to help you"






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Or... If you prefer your news on the LITE side...


CNBC (clickables)


- 'Fast' Traders: Horrible Housing—Hold Your Nose & Buy?
- Euro Zone Industry Orders Log Top Gain in Decade
- Hope For Afghanistan: Minerals and Economics
- Obama Approval Rating Slips to 45%: NBC-WSJ Poll
- Cramer ‘Applauds’ Fed Decision
- Why Are There So Few New Homeowners?
- Cool Android Apps 
- Trichet Explains Why Soros Is Wrong About the Euro


Can't you just wait to sink your teeth into any of that "hard hitting" journalism?




---


CV was fooling around with some charts yesterday... I'm kind of "fixated" on the idea of this imminent "Golden Cross" (50 day MA crosses over the 200MA)... Technically, I think it's called something else when it crossed DOWN in that fashion...


Nevertheless, it ought to happen within the next 8-13 trading days... It looks like this (potentially) on the chart...


& I'll give you this chart to pull the 200DAY line into full view...




We're coming to End of Quarter... 


I gotta admit... I was reading all the HFT riff raff on ZH last evening... It seems everyone on the planet has a bee in their bonnet about "order stuffing", FED interventions, etc. 


But it seems to me that something as simple as this "CROSS" could really be much more overwhelming than any of those other market operations that happen in a low volume trend environment...


To many basic fund managers (just trying to beat their "Lipper Averages" - whatever the hell that is), this is the ONLY thing they look at... 


50 over 200 and trending up = GOOD
50 under 200 and trending down = BAD


It's something to consider... Big question is... "When do the rats start fleeing the ship"?... Because the way the charts look, you're going to need to put 11 players (all with extra sized Hamburger Helper mitts) in front of the goal to prevent this one from getting through...





AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



How do we keep avoiding the wall?



SPX
Spinning top day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is anxiously waiting for retest. Still above the SMA(21) but now below the SMA(233). Midpoint now below EMA(10). Still above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1091.60). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day (profit taking?). Down move is done. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) held (91.80 is next). Back below the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.40).



VIX
Doji day. Start of evening star or pause before exploding higher? Midpoint below 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps (still holds true)." Still above the SMA(55) and above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (yet).



GOLD
Spinning top day (bulls holding strong for now). Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). New low on daily 3LB (reversal still 1258.30).



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed again). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1936).



JNK
Bearish short day. Lower shadows are getting longer. Tested the 38.2% retrace (passed). Still above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Spinning top day. Resembles bullish thrusting. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint back below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95). One step forward and two steps back.



WTI
Bearish long day. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the weekly 3LB mid at 77.58 (failed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.48).



XHB
Bullish harami day (but first day is too small IMO). Below all SMA's. Still below 38.2% retrace. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.59).

Morning Audibles 6.23.10 - Roll With The Changes

I'm not in a particularly grumpy mood... (Nor am I really a "grump" for that matter)...


Headlines sure have a way of making one that way (Unless you tune into CNBC, like, yesterday at 3PM when the caption read "DOW ON TRACK FOR BEST MONTH SINCE MARCH." - I kid you not)...


So I like to intersperse "cranium cracking numbnutted-ness" (which is fed into your skull daily by the MSM), with another sort of HEAD BANGING, or WAILING, or whatever you want to call it... 


It's a SURVIVAL instinct, after all... What more could you expect from SURVIVOR CAPITAL?... Especially when the WAILING contains the proper message...





REO SPEEDWAGON

As soon as you are able, woman I am willing
To make the break that we are on the brink of
My cup is on the table, my love is spilling
Waiting here for you to take and drink of

So if you're tired of the same old story,
Oh, turn some pages
I will be here when you are ready
To roll with the changes, yeah, yeah

I knew it had to happen, felt the tables turnin'
Got me through my darkest hour
I heard the thunder clappin', felt the desert burnin'
Until you poured on me like a sweet sunshower

So if you're tired of the same old story
Oh, turn some pages
I will be here when you are ready
To roll with the changes, ooooh

So if you're tired of the same old story
Oh baby, turn some pages
I will be here when you are ready
To roll with the changes, baby,
Roll with the changes,
Ah you know you know you know you got to

(Keep on rollin') Oh yeah
(Keep on rollin'), oooh roll with the changes
Keep on rollin' (keep on rollin' keep on rollin')
Oh now roll with the changes oh baby
(Keep on rollin') oh babe (keep on rollin')
Oh you got to learn to roll with the changes
Got to, got to, got to, got to keep on rollin'
Keep on rollin', got to learn to, got to learn to,
Got to learn to roll

Keep on rollin', keep on rollin', oooh
Keep on rollin', keep on rollin', oooh
Keep on rollin', keep on rollin', oooh
Keep on rollin', keep on rollin', oooh, aah

---

What do we have here? 7 trading days?, More? G-20 meetings?, "Ass kicking?", "General Resigning?", "WH Budget Director Escape?", "Rats Leaving Ships?", "4th of July?", "England-Slo/USA-Alg?

CV is reminded of the thought...


"A Soldier of the Legion lay dying in Algiers,
There was a lack of woman's nursing, there was dearth of woman's tears;
The dying soldier faltered, and he took that comrade's hand,
And he said, 'I nevermore shall see my own, my native land'."


Stephen Crane - "The Open Boat" (1897)

Don't be depressed... Just pick up a set of drumsticks, and just beat a tune out... You can get real good at it if you practice! :-)


AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Weather warning!!! The creditcane has been upgraded to a Cat 6 from a Cat 3. CYA



SPX
Bearish long day. Closed below mid of long day on 6/15/10. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is anxiously waiting for retest. Still above the SMA(21) but now below the SMA(233). Midpoint still above EMA(10). Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1091.60). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (did confirm bullish engulfing). Down move is over. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) held (91.80 is next). Back above the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.40).



VIX
Bullish long day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps (still holds true)." Back above the SMA(55) and back above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (yet).



GOLD
Bullish short day (but did confirm bearish engulfing). Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1258.30).



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1936).



JNK
Bearish short day. Tested the 50.0% retrace (failed). Still above the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish long day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint back below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95). Can you hear the cries of GS "Tio! Tio! No Mas!"



BP
Spinning top day. Almost an inverted hammer (I said almost). Still trapped by candle body from the long down day on 6/9/10. Still below the 0.0% retrace. Still below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.86).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested 14.2% retrace (failed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.58). "It's a safe haven...for now."

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.