8:30 AM Core PPI - (how much it costs to make a catfood widget).
8:30 AM Retail Sales - (What you can spend after you return & redeem the 5 cent deposit on the can of catfood you used).
8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto - (same - minus your "cash for clunker" incentive for buying that "coal fired" VOLT from Government Motors).
10:00 AM Business Inventories - (How much catfood is sitting in warehouses. Or, how much copper plumbing and pipes are sitting in the warehouses of Mafia types and "fences", after having been stolen from houses because the price of copper is sky high due to the government mandate to build electric cars to
2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision - (The advance warning that your catfood will triple in cost by next year)
Surely, anxious traders (when not engaged in JBingTFD), will be waiting in awe inspired anticipation for the words of THE GREAT BERNANK... I'm so excited myself, I contacted my good friend "Dirk Diggler" to record a song in honor of his genius in
U GOT THE TOUCH
Whadda u guys think? Ya think the bass is taking away from the vocals? We want to get this track laid down right!
As a sidenote... Many of you may not know, but Dirk Diggler was also known to "INSPIRE" a whole new generation of award achievers...
BARRY SOETORO as Brock Obama
Let's look back at an anthology of the "Brock" legend... From humble beginnings to meteoric rise!... A STAR IS PORN!...
"Let's keep Rockin' & Rollin' Man!"... We've feasted on the autobiographies... All that's left to do now is the final "Brock" documentary film...
Of course, when things get tough, Brock will be the first one to explain to you how he "inherited" all the problems he faces... He needs to remind you in no unsimple terms...
"What can I say?... It's jealousy, it's deceitfulness, it's vindictiveness, it's all that stuff, you know?... I mean, but, God, what can you expect when you're on top...you know... it's like... Napoleon, when he was the king... you know people would like, constantly try and conquer him... you know... in the Roman Empire, so it's like history repeating itself all over again..."
So try and cut him & the Bernank some slack & JBTFD...
I'm hearing Blythe Masters is up for either "Amber Waves" or "Rollergirl" in the sequel...
ReplyDeleteMauldin on Bloomberg (Dec 13)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/65227056/
Thanks CV for your replies in the earlier post. I look forward to you posting more on fitness. And I also look forward to me doing something about it. Sugar is my poison, got to deal with that.
ReplyDeleteAnd btw, I switch off the lights, use the air conditioning sparsely even in hot Delhi summers, take the public transport and keep my cell usage to a minimum. Cycling though is out of question on Delhi roads, very suicidal. Agri thing, I wish I could. And maybe, I will, someday soon.
Prashant
@Prashant
ReplyDeleteWill do...
I'm looking to make myself a plate of this [Tuna Subzi] which I found and looks pretty yummy...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJroD8mWWLY&feature=channel
I gotta find some Tandoori Masala though...
The comments on silver are really getting funny and all the people that "know" what JPM is doing.....stunning how many people are trying to pretend.
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteWe ere talking about the AAPL-SONY comparison just yesterday... Canary?
Retail Renaissance Revolt: Best Buy Plunges As Top Line Misses, Cuts Forecast, Comp Stores Down And Sees Pervasive Weakness
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/retail-renaissance-revolt-best-buy-plunges-top-line-misses-cuts-forecast-comp-stores-down-an
I called the Schaub pick in OT (I saw him throw a pick a few weeks back in another comeback)
ReplyDelete(it seemed the Texans were always starting deep in their endzone or at best the 20 yard line the whole game)-
PPI= .8%
CV-
ReplyDeleteSony became a big bloated enterprise- far from the cutting edge products that brought it success-
they buy their TV screens from the Koreans- I guess they didn't see the flat TV craze coming
@ahab
ReplyDeleteWhat makes you think AAPL isn't becoming the exact same thing?
I am agreeing you-
ReplyDeletesuccess only lasts so long- other products from other companies eventually leap frog the past "star"
anecdotal data points from southwest ohio...
ReplyDeletecopper miners....
a metal worker in our shop owns a couple of lower income rental houses (not quite a slum lord), after last tenant moved out, basement was vandalized within days, stripped of all visible electrical, even the control wiring for the furnace. has to re-wire immediately to avoid pipes freezing.
****************************
rre reality check...
just checked zillow Zestimate on one of my rental units, down 13% yoy, down 10% since 09/01/2010
good morning.. CV.. I got lost in the morning audibles!!
ReplyDeletecolor me confused: "U.S. Retail Sales Rise More Than Forecast as Consumers Recover" http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=amHUP6SyHcJU
Lee goes to Philly. Wow. Ben, you must be pleased.
ReplyDeletemy own spending is down over 100%.. last year my amex rebate was over $1k.. this year, $330.
ReplyDeleteKaren-
ReplyDeletedoesn't look like Best Buy is riding that trend-
so I don't buy it-
unless people are just stockpiling grocery items and filling up their gas tanks at $3.10 a gallon
72b-
??? why steal the electrical wire?
re:AAPL
ReplyDeletehttp://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php
@310
On Dec 13: 321.67
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=AAPL&m=2010-12
Puts
300.00 AAPL101218P00300000 0.16 0.00 N/A N/A 7,883 25,929
310.00 AAPL101218P00310000 0.60 0.00 N/A N/A 12,641 23,628
320.00 AAPL101218P00320000 2.66 0.00 N/A N/A 29,547 13,937
330.00 AAPL101218P00330000 9.05 0.00 N/A N/A 6,246 3,358
340.00 AAPL101218P00340000 18.80 0.00 N/A N/A 338 1,478
Calls
300.00 AAPL101218C00300000 21.85 0.00 N/A N/A 2,165 10,730
310.00 AAPL101218C00310000 12.06 0.00 N/A N/A 7,716 19,342
320.00 AAPL101218C00320000 4.35 0.00 N/A N/A 32,595 35,921
330.00 AAPL101218C00330000 0.76 0.00 N/A N/A 35,245 36,768
~310 seems about right..
AAPL
"...my own spending is down over 100%..."
ReplyDeletekaren,
wtf? you ceased spending and/or are receiving massive 'kickbacks'/'rebates'/'credits'/'subsidies'?
:)
AAIP
??? why steal the electrical wire?
ReplyDeleteahab,
the Cu !
AAIP
gotta watch the euro today: Sellers emerge at 1.3450
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexlive.com/153576/all/sellers-emerge-at-1-3450
hoffer-
ReplyDeleteI know- but I am thinking how much could that get you-
although I threw away an old BBQ a few months back and someone stole the cover and base from in front of my curb (aluminum)
so maybe if you scavenge enough it pays off
Re; Cliff Lee
ReplyDeleteAs a Ranger fan, huge sigh of relief this AM
Too old, too many dollars
Plenty of kids in the minors, do it right or don't bother.
Foghorn
"so maybe if you scavenge enough it pays off"
ReplyDeleteahab,
from what I've seen/know, the Scavengers are, already, 'en route'/already driving past anyways..the Opportunity Cost of "Stopping" is near Zero..
and, yes, it 'adds up'..
it's interesting to see these 'Pros' at the 'Scrap Yard' -- trucks filled with all manner of assorted 'dots & jots'..
also, "Law Enforcement"/"Regulation" is cracking down/becoming stricter on/with the 'Scrap Yard' Owners/Managers -- in effort, purportedly, to stem the Theft..
AAIP
Re; Cliff Lee
ReplyDeleteAs a Ranger fan, huge sigh of relief this AM
Too old, too many dollars
Plenty of kids in the minors, do it right or don't bother.
Foghorn
totally. for many of the same reasons, was happy he didn't wind up in the Bronx..
ibid.
how bout the Phils!
ReplyDeleteCliff Lee....whoo hoo, I'm a big fan of his
That rotation is bananas
you guys will be sorry when the Phils win the series, we've got 4 potential 20 game winners in that rotation
ReplyDeleteCliff Lee too old
pffft
Dirk Diggler makes me think of my college roommate every time I see that name. She's brilliant -- speaks 5 languages, did her undergrad in 3 years, 2 Harvard degrees...but she has a knack of giving her kids names only a porn star would have. I would tell you, but that would compromise her anonymity. Just trust me...they are really bad. Won't be around much...somehow a birthday party invite for my neglected middle child slipped through the cracks so I'm doing damage control/more present buying today. Yuck.
ReplyDeletedon't you use your middle name and the street name you grew up on to come up with your porn star name?
ReplyDeleteI had a buddy
Dale Sunset
mine would be
Russell Brickyard
ahab -
ReplyDeleteguy estimates the cu miners got less than 5 lbs cu total from his basement..., the control wiring? just 'cos it was s within easy reach.
i crush the two soda cans a day that i consume. recently sent them with a retired friend who regularly scavenges cans from along the bike path (bikes up to 50 mi a day in warm weather). my cans plus a ruined aluminum cooking pot fetched $15
have to present i.d. and sign a receipt when selling odd bits (other than cans) at the recycling yard. have some dead furnace and ceiling fan motors i'm sending with him next time.
xrt and xly.. sell the news? love that TBT.. i told you all to JBTFD on that yesterday.
ReplyDeleteAnn Westminster :-)
ReplyDeleteHers are much better...she could easily have a son named Dirk Diggler ______ and no one would even question how he fit into the mix. They've all got that first/last alliteration going on too.
He was 0-2 in da Series
ReplyDeleteSome kid named Lincicum 2-0
Looks good on paper tho.
What's up Mark?
Foghorn
I'm curious, you guys think Roy Halladay is too old also?
ReplyDeleteCliff Lee is younger than he is
you gotta look C on daily candles..
ReplyDeleteGovMo, a slow, slow death..
"my cans plus a ruined aluminum cooking pot fetched $15"
ReplyDeleteinteresting- how many cans would you estimate?
My kids are always sucking down soda and energy drinks-
I just throw it all in the recycle bin
Foghorn,
ReplyDeleteCattle Prices, for one..and, looking to stay that way~
AAIP
MackieFear,
Halladay and Lee are two different cats..
Lee can twirl, no doubt, but, for the $, and the years, just glad that NYY went 'another way'..
Ahab -- Mish had an article sometime in the last year about a man who had started his own private garbage collection company -- he was turning a tidy profit on the recyclables -- so the municipal govt outlawed the use of private garbage contractors. Don't remember if it was in CA or not. All your recycling belongs to us.
ReplyDeleteAu was .53 per lb last week
ReplyDeleteHauled in a truckload last week.
About 150 feral notes converted to nickelz bitches!
Halladay ain't signed for 5 years either.
Foghorn
Mark,
ReplyDeleteI don't associate much with Yanks fans
:-)
I'll give you that you can't compare many guys to halladay, maybe 1-3 in the league, but Cliff Lee is no slouch, one of the best pitchers in the league
as for the money
you saw what Werth just got paid right?
J-
ReplyDeletepeep this:
Big Brother Is Watching You Recycle
December 1, 2010
Wendy McElroy
The Freeman
Citing the British model, Cleveland, Ohio, is taking a giant step toward a similar scheme of compulsory recycling. In 2011 some 25,000 households will be required to use recycling bins fitted with radio-frequency identification tags (RFIDs)—tiny computer chips that can remotely provide information such as the weight of the bin’s contents and that allow passing garbage trucks to verify their presence. If a household does not put its recycle bin out on the curb, an inspector could check its garbage for improperly discarded recyclables and fine the scofflaws $100. Moreover, if a bin is put out in a tardy manner or left out too long, the household could be fined. Cleveland plans to implement the system citywide within six years.
Extreme recycling programs are nothing new, even in American cities. In San Francisco recycling and composting are mandatory; trash is sorted into three different bins with compliance enforced through fines. New York City has a similar program.
Neither are RFID bins new. They were introduced on London streets in 2005 ostensibly to track the amount of trash households produced and to discourage “overproduction,” but they have also had trials in American cities. Earlier this year, Alexandria, Virginia, approved such bins, which were to be placed with households this autumn.
Cleveland is particularly important, however, because of its size. Cash-starved local governments will be watching to see if an American city as big as Cleveland can use RFID bins to increase revenues. The revenues would flow from three basic sources: a trash-collection fee that could be increased, as in Alexandria; the imposition of fines; and the profit, if any, from selling recyclables. The last source should not be dismissed. Recycling programs are not generally cost-efficient, but much of the reason is that collections need to be cleaned and re-sorted at their destination.
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=2930
AAIP
McB,
ReplyDeletere: Werth, 7 for 127MM ?
like I said, tho.."Lee can twirl, no doubt, but..."
back to Werth, to me, I'd rather be paying him, than Dunn..
much better all around Ballplayer..
AAIP
mrtopstep
ReplyDelete[08:52:47 AM] Bank of India rate move takes some wind out of commodities, tugs on copper while turning gold off our resistance at 1409.00
hoffer-
ReplyDeletethat's a great idea-
Citing the British model, Cleveland, Ohio, is taking a giant step toward a similar scheme of compulsory recycling.
I think everything should be compulsory-
compulsory voting, health insurance, thermostat settings,
government always knows best:-)!
werth is about as streaky as Cliff Clavin after a few rounds at Cheers
ReplyDelete@Mark
ReplyDeleteDownsized my herd last week also, sold 5, did OK.
Jackwagons selling hay for 9 a bale
Kept two nice young 'uns
And a 3 year old cow with about 70 inches of horn
Take that Bernank!
ahab,
ReplyDelete10:04
you and Obama it would seem
;-)
case in point- Michelle Obama re childhood obesity-
ReplyDelete'We Can't Just Leave It Up To The Parents'...
of course not- take away those damn happy meals already-
there should be a law (oh- there is one- in SF)
"government always knows best:-)!"
ReplyDeleteahab,
and, it gets better! it's all Free! b/c it's paid for by Taxes!
~~
Foghorn,
70" ? that's some nice Horn~
always a good idea to keep a girl, or two, around..too..
U$D 9/bale, for Hay? wow! low Rains, down there, this year?
AAIP
McB,
ReplyDeletew/Werth v. Dunn
two things:
Speed never 'Slumps'
and, I'd rather have his Glove than 190 Ks..
ibid.
well, if Jason werth could put together a whole season like he played the first month and half of last year then the Nats will win the series and he'll get a triple crown
ReplyDeleteI'll admit, when he's hot, that's a good thing going on
bottom line: I like the Lee deal a lot, but I'll be biased on this.
"and, it gets better! it's all Free! b/c it's paid for by Taxes!"
ReplyDeletethat line always gets a chuckle out of me:-)!
if there was truth in advertising- "Free Healthcare" would read-
"Taxpayer Paid Healthcare"
Buy muni's, I am
ReplyDeletePimco’s Gross Puts $4.4 Million Own Money on Muni Bond Rebound
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aSV8MrC53cDA&pos=11
do look where the $tyx is again today..
ReplyDeleteahab -
ReplyDelete750 cans? 1,000?
2 cans a day x 5 days a week x 50 weeks x 1.5 - 2 years.
ugh. that's a lot of phenylalanine consumed
5-Year Treasury 1.958 +0.066 +3.49%
ReplyDelete10-Year Treasury 3.364 +0.081 +2.47%
30-Year Treasury 4.491 +0.09 +2.04%
http://finviz.com
btw, how close are those #'s to those that y'all are seeing?
AAIP
@McF
ReplyDelete"Russell Brickyard" - lol
The system must work because I'd be "Al Dickens"
gotta roll-
ReplyDelete72b- dude- that's a lot of cans for $15
CBOE INT RATE 30 YR T BOND 30 YR T BOND
ReplyDelete44.84 +0.83 (+1.89%) 44.35 – 44.96
CV,
ReplyDeleteI might need to change my handle here.
Everybody's doing it
(streaking to the quad, that is)
I'll tell you, I love this time of year/the holiday, etc.
ReplyDeletebut 22 degrees in the car this morning.....no thanks.
hard to believe but we were mid 60's just before thanksgiving, we get no fall at all in DE.
So...
ReplyDeleteJBTFD+10 is green (thus far), like nine of the other days...
The only "red day",(12/06), the SPX opened at 1223.87 and closed at 1223.12...
THAT was a scary selloff... I can't believe we all survived!
this is a great read!
ReplyDeletehttp://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/12/internet-is-like-game-of-telephone-on.html
ahab -
ReplyDeletebikepath rider brings home hundreds a day (crushed along the way they occupy little volume)
Fun Facts
Recycling aluminum cans saves 95 percent of the energy used to make aluminum cans from virgin ore.
Recycling 1 aluminum can saves enough electricity to run your TV for 6 Jimmy Neutron Episodes
Remember tho...
ReplyDeleteThat CV was talking for the past 3 months now about the comparisons to '07...
Tho the highs were in October, the first REAL FLASHPOINT came on FOMC day in December '07...
The markets recovered a little by the end of the month, but by Jan '08 they were running for the hills...
Just saying...
I might suggest a google search on
ReplyDeleteCelebration, FL
interesting reading.
Low rain, yes indeed,
ReplyDeletepure fucking greed, you betcha.
The 'I gotta get mine' insanity has pervaded every segment of society.
But there is a glitter on the horizon, my in-laws didn't freak out, this time, when informed the 'Grasshoppers' were screwed.
Chore time at the ranchero.
Later
foghorn
@72
ReplyDelete"Recycling 1 aluminum can saves enough electricity to run your TV for 6 Jimmy Neutron Episodes"
---
So NOW we know why you do it!
k -
ReplyDeletere good read
"On the internet, sadly, it's the opposite. It doesn't matter what you can prove, it only matters what you believe"
so "true"
Me?
ReplyDeleteI'd rather HOARDE the Cu (nickles bitchez)... That way, it becomes more COSTLY for them to dig up and mine Cu ore...
That way, the price of my nickles goes up...
cv -
ReplyDeletewe all have ulterior motives
@ben22
ReplyDeleteIsn't that that "Disney" planned town that had its first homicide recently?
one thing it seems a lot of people believe is that they can bring JPM down buy buying silver
ReplyDeleteI'll take the other side of that, you aren't going to bring them down in the silver markets, sorry charlie, or is it max.
it is CV
ReplyDeletemy biz partner has a client that lives there
“A lot of people bought homes in Celebration thinking Tinker Bell had sprinkled the town with pixie dust,” said Michael Olenick, chief executive officer of mortgage-data firm Legalprise Inc., referring to the character in Disney’s “Peter Pan” movie whose magical dust allows people to fly as long as they think happy thoughts. “Reality is hitting hard.”
this author must not know about the Wizard, far more powerful than some pansie pixie dust.
Maybe they can toss some of that pixie dust onto Gulf seafood to keep it from getting into grandma's catfood...
ReplyDeleteSecretary of the Navy Hatches Brilliant Plan to Sell More Gulf Seafood and Transport Oil to the War Zone
An unknown quantity of Gulf seafood is tainted with oil and/or dispersant.
Some have speculated that Gulf seafood would be quietly sold to makers of cat and dog food, to avoid public scrutiny.
But the Secretary of Navy has a different idea – force the good men and women in our armed services to eat it.
As the Times Picayune reported yesterday:
Navy Secretary Ray Mabus, who doubles as President Barack Obama’s point man on Gulf Coast oil spill recovery, is pressing America’s armed services to consume as much Gulf seafood as possible.
Navy Capt. Beci Brenton said Monday that Mabus has talked with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and the secretaries of the Air Force and Army, and his staff has talked to the Defense Commissary Agency, which operates a worldwide chain of stores for military personnel, making the point “that we should be buying Gulf Coast seafood.”
I have friends who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the thought of folks in our armed services being fed Gulf seafood angers me.
Of course, the U.S. considers oil to be a national security issue, and the government spends a lot of money to get oil over to the various war theaters.
Indeed, BP is the main contractor supplying oil to the U.S. military.
The cynical might argue that Secretary Mobus is being callous in allowing our good service men and women to eat tainted seafood.
But maybe Secretary Mobus has an ingenious plan to cheaply transport BP oil into Iraq and Afghanistan: shipping Gulf seafood to commissaries and mess halls, and then having the troops march on their stomachs and transport the oil out into the field.
puh-leez ben -
ReplyDeletethis guy is conflating wizards (think harry potter) with pixies (tinkerbell). completely different mythologies - er- um - schools of economic thought.
ben, can you explain to me why AIG is up? seriously..
ReplyDeleteanyone mind if i curse the dollar?
ReplyDeletelook at c now..
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteDifferent take on dollar...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/brown-brothers-presents-its-case-stronger-usd-ahead-fomc-meeting
cv-
ReplyDeletethey're looking to dump it off on 'Schools', and 'other Institutions' (Jails), too, yes?
AAIP
Karen,
ReplyDeletewhy it's up!....I can't even explain to you why that's been traded since 2008.
and as for your 11:01
no, not me.
i've not yet pulled up the market today, dont' know what's going on right now and don't care (sort of), I have a very detailed plan laid out for later this month/early january, time to focus on what matters, and right now I don't think it's the daily ticks during John E month.
yeah, this makes sense: NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Barclays Capital has started quoting credit default swap prices on senior unsecured debt from General Motors Co. (GM) Tuesday, even though the re-emerged GM has not yet issued any bonds.
ReplyDeleteA Barclays spokesman declined to comment.
The Detroit auto maker, which underwent a bankruptcy reorganization in 2009 and last month completed a $20 billion initial public offering of fresh common stock from newly emerged GM, has a $5 billion credit facility with its lenders, but no bonds outstanding.
After the bankruptcy filing on June 1, 2009, buyers of CDS tied to old General Motors Corp. unsecured debt received 87.5 cents on every dollar of CDS protection they bought. Protection tied to old GM Corp. loans was valued at 97.5 cents on the dollar. At that time, there was around $2.4 billion of old GM debt outstanding.
The thinking is that should the new GM issue bonds, it would do so at the General Motors Co. level rather than at General Motors Holdings, and that having CDS levels in the market would help investors get comfortable with how a potential bond offering might price. It is unclear when the company plans to tap the debt capital markets, but until now, investors have been using Ford Motor Co. (F) CDS as a proxy.
Pricing being offered on the GM CDS is in the range of 330-340 basis points, according to one person who had seen the Barclays quote. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt for five years.
Because GM hasn't issued bonds, it means that if the credit default swaps had to be settled, the CDS could potentially be worthless. When CDS--which investors buy to hedge or speculate against the risk of non-payment on debt--are triggered for settlement, protection buyers deliver debt into an auction and receive the face value of their bonds, minus the market value of the defaulted debt set at auction.
If there is no debt to deliver, or in GM's case if the $5 billion credit facility is not deemed to be eligible as a deliverable obligation, the CDS could not be settled in exchange for cash.
Such decisions on CDS settlement criteria are made by a special committee of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association on a case-by-case basis.
Doug kASS 2011 preDICKtions...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/40646331
CV,
ReplyDeletefeeling pretty effing flamed over your 10:55 right now
wtf.....
well, ben.. you are a professional.. i would think you could explain AIG to me.. hmm, maybe its following the C or GM meme.. I mean, if the US Government owns it, it must be a good investment.
ReplyDeletelol Karen,
ReplyDeleteAIG couldn't explain AIG to you, I can tell you they sold some of the best (profitable) units of AIG off for next to nothing during the panic time, the business is a shell of what it used to be.
bottom line on the stock; it's people speculating as always, same reason people buy a GM IPO when within the notes they admit they don't even trust their own financial information
the market discounts nothing (imo), they record the current mood in real time
that's where I stand, you've got hundreds of millions of opinions and ideas coming together to record the net social mood, some are thought out, most are not, and there is constant reaction going on. thats the markets as I see it.
CV
ReplyDeleteI remember reading that. First I hear the armed services are changing the food they serve to improve the troops health. Now they want to give them tainted food? I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are allergic to shellfish (all of a sudden).
Is TNX going to break 3.4%? It won't take long to get to 3.5% and then 4.0% at this rate. TYX holding above 4.5% so 5.0% is not out of the question.
ReplyDeleteAIG, this fellow is taking a stab at it:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hedgeaccording.ly/2010/12/aig-shares-surging-on-us-stake-update.html
@Amen
ReplyDeleteYeah... You have Brian Williams doing a special on NBC talking about "no more donuts & french fries" at Camp LeJeune... but then the Gulf seafood story?
It's like WTF?
Anyway - How can you NOT have donuts in the military?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NP8y63Ms4o
>> Secretary of the Navy Hatches Brilliant Plan to Sell More Gulf Seafood and Transport Oil to the War Zone
ReplyDeleteCV, Naked Capitalism / Yves Smith mentioned that, too. (Or, it was a guest post from "Washington".) I recommend her site as a daily read.
GLD on a 10 min, 2 day chart.. is that a H&S or a R H&S in the making : )
ReplyDeleteKaren,
ReplyDeletewhat good are any comments on stocks in the market from site that claims
"markets are broken"
so markets are "broken" but THEY can tell you what to do and explain ticks to you?
um.....ok.
I could pull some "reasons" why AIG is up right out of my ass as well, Benmosche said green in a talk the other day, green is the color of dollars, dollars, like IOU's, are just as good as money according to Lloyd Christmas who drives a lambo in Aspen, and it's close to Christmas, so AIG stock is up on this news.
I guess people feel better about reading that kind of rubbish
Doug Noland, a must read: In the "old days," the banking system dominated system Credit creation. Bank lending was integral to Credit growth, with new bank deposits created through the process of expanding bank loans. "M2" provided a good indication of bank lending - that was a decent indicator of overall Credit conditions. As such, the Fed reigned supreme over the Credit mechanism through its careful regulation of bank reserves. Rather mechanically, our central bank would add reserves - the fodder for new bank loans - when it sought a boost in lending. It would extract reserves when it preferred to lean against the wind. Bank deposits were the critical component of "money" supply, and our central bank judiciously monitored their expansion.
ReplyDeleteThe financial world - certainly including monetary management - was turned upside down with the unleashing of (unconstrained) non-bank Credit instruments. No longer did the banks dominate system Credit creation. In a process that gained fateful momentum throughout the nineties, the bank loan was relegated to second class citizen in the age of the booming Wall Street securitization marketplace. Meanwhile, the Fed's entire process of manipulating bank reserves became moot. Fed policy immediately gravitated toward manipulating the securities markets, and Alan Greenspan - "The Maestro" - absolutely relished his new "activist" role.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/19294/the-fed-and-money
of course, securitization is on its death bed right now....
ReplyDeletethankfully for peeps like James Dimon there are still monkeys buying up plenty of subprime auto and home paper, in the never ending quest for yield.
more: Importantly, the Federal Reserve's zero-rate policy and massive monetization program have been instrumental in maintaining the perception of "moneyness" in the face of unprecedented Treasury debt issuance. I can't envisage a more powerful Bubble Dynamic: The Fed intervenes and manipulates the Treasury market - the predominant debt market underpinning fixed income and securities markets more generally. Enormous fiscal stimulus then works to stabilize system incomes, corporate cash flows, state & local tax receipts, and asset prices more generally. In the final analysis, Trillions of dollars of government-created purchasing power ensure that a structurally maladjusted U.S. economy has, at the minimum, the appearance of viability - and the stock market booms.
ReplyDeleteThe Fed may not be "printing," but its operations as "backstop bid" are fundamental to the U.S. and Global Government Finance Bubbles. In a replay of how the Fannie, Freddie, the Fed and Treasury "backstop bid" created the "moneyness of Credit" for mortgages and related securitizations, the Fed's quantitative easing program distorts market perceptions of various risks (Credit, interest rate, liquidity and systemic) and promotes over-issuance. From this perspective, our central bank's operations are more dangerous than the traditional printing press.
"Moneyness" was fundamental to the doubling of mortgage debt in just about six years during the mortgage finance Bubble. Over time, the expanding gulf between market perceptions of moneyness and the true underlying state of the mortgage Credit ensured a crisis of confidence. Moreover, the Trillions of mortgage Credit had played havoc with spending and investing patterns and, increasingly over time, the underlying economic structure. These days, the attribute of "moneyness" in Treasury debt is on track to ensure the doubling of federal borrowings in the neighborhood of four years. For this round, the "expanding gulf" is much more pernicious and the consequences of a crisis of confidence potentially more devastating.
copper news and JPM denial:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BD3RV20101214
U.S. investment bank JPMorgan said it does not hold more than 90 percent of copper stock warrants in London Metal Exchange warehouses, but declined on Tuesday to comment on whether it had a smaller position.
A single holder, recently controlling 50-80 percent of copper stocks and cash contracts in London Metal Exchange warehouses, appears to have raised the position to above 90 percent, latest data from the world's biggest metals market showed.
we KNEW there was something up with $copper.. UFB.
ReplyDeleteBreakingNews
ReplyDeleteSpringfield, Ill. Mayor Tim Davlin reportedly found shot to death in his home http://bit.ly/fTPykR
Doug Noland Video:
ReplyDeletehttp://federated.new-perspective.com/videoPlayer.html?id=9&qual=700&fileType=flv&%20
d*mn annoying video because of the soundtrack intermissions.. do not watch it..
ReplyDeleteinteresting chart, CSTR.. in a bit of a freefall.. looks like a dbl top but that would be impossible.. BTD?
ReplyDeleteFYI: This summer, I met a bunch of traders who had big calendar spread positions on AIG. They were buying the long calls and paying for it by selling the near calls each month. They claimed that shorting the nears would almost pay for the long call by expiration (I never bothered to verify), making it a low risk trade if some bullshit pop occurred in AIG
ReplyDelete@karen
ReplyDeleteI'm calling BS on your (11:51)(11:52)...
We all know that CV has "cornered the market" on physical Cu because of his nickel collection...
Handy to use as:
- an inflation hedge
- full metal jackets
It's not as hard as one might think... lol
ReplyDeletehttp://www.corbins.com/images/strip2bc.jpg
LOL
ReplyDeleteCramer's Latest Wipe Out Call: Buy Best Buy December 17 $44 Calls For A Total Loss
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cramers-latest-wipe-out-call-buy-best-buy-december-17-44-calls-total-loss
Tool Time again in fixed income:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/65259588/
Given the success of Caron's 5.5% TNX call in 2010, doesn't this indicate that we will NOT see a 4% 10y in 2011?
Of course a 4% call is fairly conservative from here. In fact, I think there is a good chance that we begin another deflationary deleveraging wave quite soon and we may not even see 4% again, if we are Japan we will head lower, aided by QE2, QE3 and the Ben Bernank put - in Treasuries.
So many Tools, so little time to enumerate them all.
ReplyDeleteCramer and the Fast Money crowd have no doubt been responsible for a lot of the call option buying, which seems especially crazy here with all kinds of toppiness signs beginning to appear, not least small options traders put:call ratios being extremely low while large options trader put:call ratio is rising.
We are obviously making another run at 1247-1250 resistance zone today. Today's PPI was probably the very last piece of inflationary data we are going to see for some considerable time, although there might be an echo in next month's number. I am assuming that commodities are topping here as we speak, and that jobs numbers will be looking weaker again by February, if not sooner.
ReplyDeleteSo, all things considered I am starting to really like IG and Treasuries a lot more. We have had a really large correction, and I think the yield ratios are now shifting back towards fixed income.
You can see why I wasn't buying yesterday, knew that today's PPI wasn't going to be cool, although the Y/Y isn't screaming and actually declined from last month.
TLT hit a low of 91.86, close to a longer term support level around 92. The entire pre-QE2 mini-bubble has now been unwound, and I believe it will soon be safe to re-enter the building.
ReplyDeleteTNX kissed 3.397 which was the closing yield on May 6, 2010.
ReplyDeleteIt may be that 3.4% caps the TNX for the time being, or we may see a bump up to 3.5%. Personally, I think this is it, there are just no more catalysts ahead to drive a push to higher yields after this massive move.
Remember all the people who shorted JGBs...
BTW, anyone who stayed with the entire TBT trade, nice going!!
ReplyDeleteWe caught some but not all of it, but we are generally better at escaping catastrophes than profiting from them..
Wow, it's like AFIATBNL has his own bond blog going...
ReplyDeleteOK, now we return you to your regularly scheduled SPOOZ WATCH.
SellPuts
ReplyDeletewe are barely doing 1200 contracts a minute.. this is when the shenanigans and the lunch time VWAP algos start playing
If you think Celebration is weird, check out Ave Maria, Florida. I have an aunt who lives there. Prime swampland...now that's where I'd want to live out the rest of my overly devout days.
ReplyDeletespooky volume today.. aapl, goog, bac, c.. (and bac and c are on the lists of most actives !!)
ReplyDeleteI always snooze at lunch before FOMC...
ReplyDeleteI have taken a licking, but I am going to keep on ticking.
ReplyDeleteYou're next, Goldfinger...!
This is a "sugar high" for Mr Market.
ReplyDeleteRecovery may not be sustained in the New Normal.
New Normal bashing has reached new heights in MSM.
If FOMC days are usually Tale of Two Tapes..
ReplyDeleteThen does this mean we are going down?
4% on the 10 year.
ReplyDeleteMy Jimmy says so.
I am selling Yen, buy Aussie dorrars.
ReplyDeleteI am long.
ReplyDeleteGiles, check that the auto liquidity suction device is functioning...
ReplyDeleteAt once, Lord.
ReplyDeleteShall we deploy at 2.30, after a brief misdirection spike to suck in unwary longs, Lord?
@AFIATBNL
ReplyDeleteI didn't know karens shoes were called SPOOZ...
I want to be paid in Euros.
ReplyDeletemrtopstep
ReplyDeleteNew Video: Federal Reserve December FOMC - Will Rates & QE2 Stay Unchanged? http://mrtopstep.com/?p=1635
@Gisele
ReplyDeleteI want to be "laid" in your Euros...
Blythe...
ReplyDeletePreparing for her new gig...
http://lh3.ggpht.com/_wkgIzuqJM0w/TQdjpdNmewI/AAAAAAAAHtY/aBwPYp3cCLc/s800/DESILVER.jpg
10 Reasons Why We've Seen Zero Legal Action from the Financial Crisis http://bit.ly/fthk4z
ReplyDeleteBloombergNow
ReplyDeleteCanadians With More Debt Than U.S. Spark Policy Makers' Warning http://ow.ly/3p3VD
CV
ReplyDelete"What has been seen cannot be unseen"
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/fed-ownership-of-the-u-s-treasury-curve/
ReplyDeletecramer trying to position John. E for some "news announcement"
ReplyDeleteTool City baby
He makes over 7,000 calls per year as has been quantified by several publications, you are almost a lock to underperform as a result.
@Amen
ReplyDeleteLOL
BTW... people... CV can "already" predict, with 85% clarity, the RESULTS of next years OSCARS...
Remember... I got all but one correct last year, and the one I missed, I'd at least been correct in narrowing it down to 2...
But you all will have to wait for the weekend before February 27th for the thread on that...
@karen
ReplyDelete"10 Reasons Why We've Seen Zero Legal Action from the Financial Crisis http://bit.ly/fthk4z"
---
Why TF do I need to complicate things with 10 reasons when ONE would suffice...
They're all crooks...
Oh I get it...
ReplyDeleteMust be democrats who wrote out that list...
If you got the "RITHOLTZ" version, there would be 20 reasons...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/79e78400-078b-11e0-8d80-00144feabdc0,s01=1.html#axzz187120x3k
ReplyDeleteAlso, I had missed this:
http://www.pionline.com/article/20101203/DAILYREG/101209956
Wonder what happened, exactly.
He was the first 'outsider' that had been invited to the Feds jackson hole retreat this year. I had wondered why he was stating that QE2 was a "step in the right direction" recently since BG had just penned a paper stating otherwise, but now that makes more sense.
There may be 10 members on the PIMCO investment strategy team, but I think it's pretty evident that it's BG's way or the highway...
I'm going with the Kracken for
ReplyDeleteBest Supporting Role by a human or computer animation.
CV, you have me LOL. (and here I was thinking, why do i even post this nonsense.. in hopes of a laugh, I guess : )
ReplyDeleteThat macro post on the Fed ownership of Treasuries is correct.
ReplyDeleteThere will be another set of tools doing a JULIAN ROBERTSON here and sucking in money to short the long bond.
But 10s30s at near historic wides, and Fed only has to make a slight shift in policy during POMOs to initiate a monster short squeeze. If you bet against the 30y FROM HERE then you are saying that
a) Fed will allow mortgage rates to get away
b) Banks will not use their free money to buy assets yielding 4.5%
c) PIMCO is going to continue to bleed money
d) The US economy is a new vigorous AMERICAN TIGER
e) Housing is recovering and prices will soon reach new highs
We don't think any of these is very likely. TLT was a great short a few weeks ago, when it had a nose bleed at 106. Not here.
You're right. We are all crooks.
ReplyDeletehttp://pragcap.com/oil-in-contango-or-backwardation
ReplyDelete"Producers and merchants increased so-called net-short positions in crude futures and options by 13 percent in the week ended Dec. 7, setting prices for output from wells, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s said in its Commitments of Traders report. It was the second-largest set of sales in two years.
Hedging oil for future delivery pressured the longest-maturity contracts, erasing the contango, or premium paid for later shipments. Hedge funds exaggerated the move as oil for delivery in December 2011 began trading at a premium to December 2012 for the first time since the week Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declared bankruptcy in September 2008."
By the way, Dirk, do you have any advice on... umm...
ReplyDelete... enhancement strategies?
the $vix megaphone keeps growing wider.. the upside needs to be tagged soon.. wild makings here if you ask me.
ReplyDeleteagain, I agree the fixed income analyst
ReplyDeleteI'm going to go out on a limb and say he doesn't work for Morgan st.
oil for delivery in December 2011 began trading at a premium to December 2012 for the first time since the week Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declared bankruptcy in September 2008.
ReplyDeletewhen the SPX was at 1247.. delightful symmetry...
LB.. you lost me on "a" because i do not believe that the fed has the ability to NOT allow mtg rates to do anything, let alone get away..
ReplyDeleteWe are going to maintain an easy policy.
ReplyDeleteI have always had a fairly easy policy....
ReplyDeleteCV, this might be for us.. afraidtotrade-Comparing Ten Year Yields $TNX and SP500 $SPX During Recession and Recovery (and QE2)
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/2bdtk6a
Not exactly sure what you are saying about mortgage rates.
ReplyDeleteThe concept is this, the Fed announces it will buy Ts (QE). The intent of this policy is that economic actors will buy Ts ahead of the Fed, driving down yields, then they will sell them to the Fed and buy mortgages, driving down mortgage rates. That's what happened over the summer and we will see this pattern repeated. Simply a way of moving people out along the risk curve.
Karen,
ReplyDeletere: govies
some people, I might describe them as smart, will see the value in the real return of bonds in this area given the deflationary back-drop while everyone clamors for yield, or better yet for stocks that don't need a div because they are just such rapid growers (see AAPL, or DANG! for that matter), most people will see it too late, I might call them the herd, and by the time they do we'll be selling again, to the new eager buyers.
let me put on my david tepper tank top and yoga pants and state that govt bond buying and selling since 2007 has been pretty "easy".....
Piece of cake, old son....
ReplyDelete(does best Michael Caine poker face)
@we're all crooks...
ReplyDeleteI'm NOT a crook!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh163n1lJ4M
@karen
ReplyDelete"the $vix megaphone keeps growing wider.. the upside needs to be tagged soon.."
I check at the beginning of each week the new WEEKLY BB's on that... (which is fairly reliable)
Right now, we'd need to tag the high 15's on a daily candle to pierce that...
So we're getting close, but the target keeps fidgeting around... Remember too the post I'd made the other day that put 12/27/10 as the .618 of the 201 days from the July '09 lows to April '10 high...
the jello is starting to form...
@Helicopter Ben (1:45)
ReplyDeleteI think you're gonna need a bigger helicopter...
@karen (1:47)
ReplyDeleteI like that chart...
Without studying it... My first "impression" (and oftentimes FIRST IMPRESSIONS DON'T LIE)...
Is that the "look" of it would NOT imply a triple top in at the 4% level... Without thinking of ANYTHING ELSE... If I were a strict gambling person, simply going on the "look" of it... I'd straight line RULER it from the TNX peak in '07, thru the 4% level in '10... bring it to its present coordinate... and say THAT's where she stops...
That's TOTALLY paper napkin... The KISS version...
I don't really give a shit about all the blah blah whatever reasons for people to be bullish, most of them are nothing more than "well the fed......"
ReplyDeletethe only thing that worries me in a major way right now about getting bearish stocks in 2011 is what Lowry's says, fading lowry's is usually a really bad idea.
imo 99% of everything else is just ignore material...
CV,
ReplyDeleteyou want a KISS version
TLT was 88.95 on 4/1/10 yeah?
you remember, when people had "no doubt" things were getting better on our march to 1200 just a few trading days after....
US Justice Dept intends to appeal healthcare ruling
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWBT01428920101214
@ben22
ReplyDeletewhat's Lowry's justification (in a nutshell)?
that there is underlying accumulation going on, iow, we are going higher
ReplyDeleteone of the best and oldest tech outfits on the street, got a lot of respect for them and their work.
going back to 2007, it seems the $tyx and $spx have been joined a the hip..
ReplyDeletembs market and yield curve influence 30 year mtg rates, correct?
here we go.. http://www.economist.com/economics/by-invitation/questions/why_are_government_bond_yields_rising
ReplyDeleteyou can pick the person you agree with.. at first skim, i agree with the last guy.
"there is underlying accumulation going on"
ReplyDeleteI'm not challenging that notion, because what the hell do I know about what's being "accumulated" or not...
My first QUESTION would be...
I wonder if there was the same kind of dynamic in place in the latter part of 1999 thru March 2000...
@karen
ReplyDeleteHow about believing CV?
My take is...
Bond yields are rising so they become CHEAPER when TSHTF and Lloyd needs a place to park all the equity $$ he's about to dump on John E...
Jesper Koll: Make no mistake: by monetising government debt, central banks are beginning to prevent the bond market—private savers with a long-term objective—from imposing discipline on government spending. And without discipline on government spending, the risk of private entrepreneurial ambition being "crowded out” is rising. The predictive power of the yield curve and the bond market is poised to stay strong. Unfortunately, what it is telling us right now is not encouraging—central banks maybe trying to do too much. Less may be more at this stage.
ReplyDeleteHave 30 minutes passed yet?
ReplyDeleteyou know what is interesting to me.. my mother recently said that she had so much anxiety when pregnant with my brother (1965) because there were no jobs and she didn't know what he would ever do to make a living.. the ten year was a little higher then than it is now..
ReplyDeletefast forward 2010 and my brother is unemployed and unemployable, apparently. she was right, just not in her timing : )
oops, meant to post this long term chart..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/heres-that-massive-rate-surge-that-rick-santelli-is-flipping-out-about-2010-12
Bond yields are rising so they become CHEAPER when TSHTF and Lloyd needs a place to park all the equity $$ he's about to dump on John E...
ReplyDeleteDo you want a job at GS Fixed Income, young man?
Ben, I didn't know you had a David Tepper tank top...!
ReplyDelete...Where do I order one?
Did you know that the Biz school at Carnegie-Mellon is actually named after Tepper?
ReplyDeleteNow JBTFD
Karen
ReplyDeletefrom your link:
Koll: "Clearspeak: a rise in bond yields is now no longer viewed as a leading indicator for a rising likelihood of growth picking up, but a sign of trouble ahead."
Yup.
is this true?? Obama Said to Meet Gates, Buffett on Boosting Economy
ReplyDeletehttp://goo.gl/3AJOS
he needs to meet with Richard Epstein, for crying out loud..
this country is a total joke. the president went on The View and The Daily Show.. that is not a president.
wha???
ReplyDeleteI love all this "what the yield curve is telling us...... right now"
guys, simple question, which trend is THE trend in bonds
the one that's been place since 07 and before, or the one that has been in place since November 2010?
meanwhile people try to 'translate' the yield curve every five minutes, what's it saying now, how about now, how about now, how about now, like an annoying kid on a long road trip. I mean, if it's saying that the central bank should do less, then what the hell was it saying in early April???? speaking another language perhaps.
as for government spending crowding out entrepreneurial ambition?
Um, what about that decade they call "the 90's"
I know some people think we lived in a fantasy land of balanced budgets then ( we didn't, and they weren't)
but I'm thinking this just isn't how the world works......sounds smart though, but I'm curious if Jesper would care to quantify statements like that.
Say what you will about EWI and SI, but at least when they make forecasts they attempt to back them up with more than an opinion.
Two weeks does not a trend make...
ReplyDeleteIs it time to review the circuit breaker cut off time?
ReplyDeleteBruce,
ReplyDeleteyou get them for free if you manage OPM.
it's just part of the gig
I have a David Tepper boa, shoes, wristwatch, it's a TAG/Tepper, etc.
I have the sweats that say E A S Y on the ass (the word easy, that is)
when people get worried in the office you just hand them some easy clothes and tell them to "take it easy"
Bonds are a screaming buy - right here right now.
ReplyDeleteAGG, LQD, TLT, fill your boots, fill your arms and fill up the wheelbarrow that you use for the gravel, b/c this is a buying opportunity.
It is ON, baby, in fixed income.
We actually use the EASY button at Appaloosa.
ReplyDeleteThe one from Office Depot.
@Amen Ra (2:49)
ReplyDeleteJohn E (JOHNNY) from the movie Airplane pulled out the power cord...
He says "Just kidding"!
@Karen
ReplyDeleteLook up the def. of 'Banana Republic'
it is we.
Apparently the decline of empire isn't pretty..
foghorn
Where can I get the JBTFD sweats? I would pose with helicopter Ben in his were I to have a pair.
ReplyDelete(No interpretations, Lefty...)
I could work for Tepper as a receptionist. I'm easy.
ReplyDeleteObama and Gates
ReplyDeletemoney men, horrible economic forecasters though if one cares to review their record, so a likely waste of time. Maybe they try a DQ stimulus, free Blizzards in January, don't mind the cold, they're free!
But yes, look to perpetual optimists to solve our problems, they probably won't ignore the same things they ignored before....
sounds like community organizing, wonder if there will be any ass-kicking by Obama, I wonder if they will do the meeting
.....in the rain
Wow...I've missed quite a day it seems. Vix starting to wake up this afternoon...
ReplyDeleteHYG seems to be breaking out of its slumber.
ReplyDeleteAmazing volatility of late in Ts and TIPs, really astonishing, and a sure sign of the presence of unusual market participants.. (HFs)
You could make your own buy the dip t-shirt for under the price of one share of AIG, could probably get a few of them at the current price.
ReplyDeleteeasy.
Another ugly chart.
ReplyDeleteWe don't own these, directly, we have exposure through some dividend paying stocks. I think these are probably a part of AGG (total bond market). Again we think that this was all a reflection of the RATE RISK, not SPREAD RISK, and it is now priced in. How do people invest in bonds when they know so little about them?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=MBB:US
Munis looks worse, much worse. This is approaching panic selling, and I think there will be intervention of some kind very soon. Look how much Granny lost this month, bloody two years of gains..?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=MUB:US
LOL! this guy belongs on this blog: wallstwes
ReplyDeleteWe are within 4 trading days of a global stock correction (drop >9%). All requirements have been met. Probability has risen from 55 to 85%
SPX 1247 was rejected again. With yields this high, I think this market is really in serious trouble now.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see what the rationale is when the selling starts, but you know it will just start because there are no more buyers.
Before you make comments about how badly I am being slaughtered, my only bond positions are HYG and TIP, HYG is fine and the TIP was recently bought. LQD really looking good, and TLT is getting close.
bill gross has a knack for buying what the government will buy right before they do
ReplyDeletemuni help on the way?
well, I just linked the article about the money he just plowed into that space, just sayin
follow the smart money in bonds, don't listen to stock traders and john e's about fixed income people....
AFIATBNL
ReplyDeleteI was just looking at IQI. Total bloodbath.
Obama Said to Meet Gates, Buffett on Boosting Economy
ReplyDeleteHmmm... let me take a wild guess how that will go...
ST. WARREN: Buy Coca Cola stock, and use "antitrust" laws to force PepsiCo to be broken up and sold to the Russkies & ChiComs...
BILL: Yeah, I've got a problem with Google & Apple... They're ANTI-AMERICAN!
LB, what about your JNK?
ReplyDeleteWe are within 4 trading days of a global stock correction (drop >9%). All requirements have been met. Probability has risen from 55 to 85%
ReplyDeleteAbso-f*cking-lutely.
Yieldwatchers Anonymous is watching:
the TNX/SPY ratio climb towards 2.
TNX = 3.46 SPY yield = 1.76.
Another ratio is FVX/DIA, climbing towards 1.
FVX = 2.04 DIA yield = 2.31
When we get to these ratios, it is usually time for Mr Bond.
here, look at this one:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.com/finance?q=ornax
I still don't like muni's much, but there are likely fat trades available in that space now.
for safe govvies though, this is exactly what deflationists hope we can have chances at as the money printers drag this out for years and years, if I have new clients coming to me with a ton of stock and no fixed income what more could I ask for right now....